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At least 577 records · Page 32

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DOE OSTI2022

Induced seismicity red-light thresholds for enhanced geothermal prospects in the Netherlands

Prospects for geothermal energy in the Netherlands have renewed concerns around induced earthquakes. Risks from induced earthquakes are managed by traffic light protocols (TLPs), where the red-light is chosen as the stop-point before exceeding a tolerance to risk. Here, we simulate post-shut-in earthquake scenarios based on realistic information for the Netherlands. We focus on three risk metrics: aggregates like nuisance and damage impacts and also local personal risk (LPR) – a likelihood of building collapse fatality for an individual. Our results show that the severity of these risks varies spatially by orders of magnitude. Prior induced seismicity (e.g., the 2012 Huizinge event) provides a reference baseline to calibrate the Dutch earthquake risk tolerances. We find that these calibrated risk tolerances are similar to those observed in North America, suggesting an underlying sociological ‘license to operate.’ Furthermore, the use of calibrated risk tolerances results in nuisance concerns completely eclipsing the other two metrics. We compare our results to a hypothetical Groningen geothermal operation and find that our approach sets red-light thresholds approximately one magnitude unit below the ML 3.6 Huizinge event. Overall, our results provide a first-order recommendation for red-light thresholds and proactive management of Dutch enhanced geothermal induced seismicity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Modernization of Radiation Therapy Services in Cambodia: A Model of International Collaboration

Cambodia is a Southeast Asian low-middle-income country with a population of >15 million. In 2020, Cambodia was estimated to have 18,375 new diagnoses of cancer and 12,638 deaths attributable to cancer. Cambodia was estimated to have a deficit of 16 megavoltage machines in 2012. Cambodia's radiation therapy services have suffered through the tumultuous events of the country's history, with intermittent services until the last decade. In recent years, Cambodia has undergone rapid economic growth and, with this, the development of its first comprehensive cancer center, the National Cancer Centre (NCC).

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Propagation method and planting density influence canopy developmental transition and biomass productivity in Miscanthus × giganteus

Understanding how establishment practices influence the mechanisms underlying Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) productivity and canopy development is critical for optimizing management. Data was collected during the juvenile (2011–2013) and mature (2024) phases of a long-term field experiment established in Urbana, Illinois, to evaluate the effects of propagation method (plug propagation [PP] and rhizome propagation [RP]), planting density (1.0, 0.75, and 0.25 plants m⁻²), and nitrogen application (0 and 67 kg N ha⁻¹) on end-of-season biomass yield, tiller mass, tiller density, and tiller height. Linear regression models identified the dominant predictors of yield across stand ages and management regimes. Planting density, nitrogen (N) application, and propagation method significantly influenced early yield and canopy development. During the juvenile phase, biomass yield was driven by tiller density due to canopy expansion; in the mature phase, yield became driven by tiller mass. The PP plots produced higher tiller density than the RP plots, resulting in faster canopy closure and higher juvenile-phase yields. Rhizome-propagated (RP) plots produced lower tiller density, but individual tillers were 3.3–6.4 g tiller −1 heavier than PP tillers. After the canopy reached equilibrium, the PP and RP yields were similar because greater RP tiller mass compensated for its lower tiller density. Higher planting density resulted in greater yield and tiller density during the second year (2012), but this effect was absent from the third year (2013) onward. In the juvenile phase, N fertilization enhanced yield by 1.6–3.4 Mg ha −1 . Initiating fertilization in 2013 on unfertilized plots produced biomass similar to that in fertilized plots, suggesting yield recovery in the mature phase. These findings revealed that establishment strategies, including propagation method and planting density, influence juvenile miscanthus canopy development and productivity, transitioning from tiller-density- to mass-dominated yields, but not mature phase productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

How does urbanization affect CO 2 emissions of central heating systems in China? An assessment of natural gas transition policy based on nighttime light data

Understanding the different impacts of urbanization on sectorial carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions at different spatial scales is of great importance for the evaluation of energy transition policies and reduction of environmental inequality. However, how urbanization affects the CO 2 emissions of central heating systems at high spatial resolution in China has not been fully studied before. Based on satellite-observed NPP-VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) data, we develop a 5 km x 5 km annual CO 2 emission inventory for coal boilers, thermal power plants (TPPs), and natural gas boilers in China's central heating systems for the period 2012-2017 by using the geographical and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. It is observed that nonurban areas generated 2-4 times the CO 2 emissions of coal boilers in urban areas. The largest increments of CO 2 emissions of gas boilers are observed in urban areas of the eastern (6.80 times) and central regions (2.86 times) in 2013-2014, due to the clean heating policy in the "2 + 26" cities in China. The effects of urbanization on CO 2 emissions from natural gas boilers are approximately 2-3 times those of coal boilers, and the differences are largest in western cities with only minor differences in northeastern cities. Overall, our results will aid in designing low-carbon development goals and provide micro-level information on central heating facilities in urbanized and less developed regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using a coupled dispersion model to estimate depletion of a tritium oxide plume by a forest

Tritium processing facilities may release tritium oxide (HTO) to the atmosphere which poses potential health risks to exposed co-located workers and to offsite individuals. Most radiological consequence analyses determine HTO dose by applying Gaussian plume models to simulate the transport of HTO. Within these models, deposition velocity is used to assess the sum of all deposition processes acting on the plume. While this may account for vegetative and soil uptake or respiration processes, it may currently lack inclusion of the complex interactions within heterogeneous forested environments. In this complex morphology, dispersion patterns are significantly altered by changing flow regimes above and below the forest canopy and by the transfer of plume material across the canopy boundary. To determine the effects of a heterogeneous forest canopy on an airborne HTO plume, a Gaussian plume model coupled with an advection-diffusion plume model was applied to estimate transport in the free atmosphere above the forest and within the forest canopy and understory. During 2012, wind speed and wind direction measurements taken at 5 heights, ranging from 2-m to 28-m, on an instrumented meteorological tower located in a loblolly pine forest at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), near Aiken, SC. From these measurements, model predictions were made over a full spectrum of meteorological conditions. Deposition and resuspension velocities were calculated based on the model-predicted flux of plume material across the top of the forest canopy. Additionally, net deposition velocity of the plume material was calculated as the difference between the deposition and resuspension velocities. The 1st and 5th percentile net deposition velocities were estimated to be 0.7 cm s-1 and 1.2 cm s-1, respectively.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic flow stress of pure polycrystalline aluminum: Pressure-shear plate impact experiments and extension of dislocation-based modeling to large strains

The dynamic thermo-mechanical behavior of pure aluminum has attracted renewed interest lately due to experimental observations of an anomalous increase in Hugoniot Elastic Limit (HEL) at incipient plasticity and elevated temperatures in polycrystalline pure metals. In context of current dislocation-mediated plasticity models for metals, this increase in dynamic strength is indicative of a transition in the rate controlling mechanism for dislocation glide from being thermally assisted to phonon-drag restricted due to increase in phonon viscosity at elevated temperatures. Though these studies have helped to shed light on these important mechanisms operative in FCC metals at incipient plasticity, the extent to which they contribute to flow stress, particularly at larger strains, remains unclear. Here, we address these questions through a combined experimental and modeling effort focused on investigating the evolution of dynamic flow stress in polycrystalline aluminum using experimental data gathered from a series of combined pressure-and-shear plate impact (PSPI) experiments designed to reveal the flow stress of pure aluminum at strain rates ~ 10 5 /s, plastic strains of up to 40% and temperatures ranging from room to 866 K. In all cases, the flow stress of aluminum, as inferred from the measured transverse particle velocity histories at the free surface of an elastic tungsten carbide target plate, reveals saturation with increasing plastic strains at stress levels that decrease with increasing test temperatures. Numerical simulations are performed to correlate the experimentally observed temperature and strain rate dependence of flow stress at small and large plastic strains using the Austin-McDowell dislocation-mediated plasticity model parametrized to normal plate impact experiments conducted in an earlier study by Zaretsky and Kanel (2012). Extensions to the model are made to better represent dynamic behavior of pure aluminum at larger plastic strains as observed in elevated temperature split Hopkinson Pressure bar (SPHB) experiments of Samanta (1971) and Lindholm and Yeakly (1965), and the combined pressure-and-shear plate-impact experiments conducted in the present study. The main theoretical extension to the Austin-McDowell model made in this paper is the introduction of a new rate- and temperature- dependent dynamic recovery function, which can potentially allow for an effective reduction in the rate of accumulation of dislocations at large plastic strains. The numerical predictions of the revised and re-calibrated plasticity model are brought into agreement with the experimental observations, correlating sufficiently well with dynamic yield stress at incipient plasticity and the flow stress levels at larger plastic strains, plastic strain rates in the range 10 3 – 10 6 /s, and elevated temperatures up to near melt. The model, in concert with the experimental measurements, suggests that at incipient plasticity the rate governing mechanism for plastic flow is phonon-drag restricted dislocation glide, whereas, at higher magnitudes of plastic strain, it transitions to stress-assisted thermally activated glide. The transition between these two rate governing mechanisms is controlled by the evolution of dislocations throughout the deformation process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed power generation via gasification of biomass and municipal solid waste: A review

The access to electricity has increased worldwide, growing from 60 million additional consumers per year in 2000-2012 to 100 million per year in 2012-2016. Despite this growth, approximately 675 million people will still lack access to electricity in 2030, indicating that electricity demand will continue to increase. Unfortunately, traditional large fossil power technologies based on coal, oil and natural gas lead to a major concern in tackling worldwide carbon dioxide emissions, and nuclear power remains unpopular due to public safety concerns. Distributed power generation utilizing CO 2 -neutral sources, such as gasification of biomass and municipal solid wastes (MSW), can play an important role in meeting the world energy demand in a sustainable way. Furthermore, this review focuses on the recent technology developments on seven power generation technologies (i.e. internal combustion engine, gas turbine, micro gas turbine, steam turbine, Stirling engine, organic rankine cycle generator, and fuel cell) suitable for distributed power applications with capability of independent operation using syngas derived from gasification of biomass and MSW. Technology selection guidelines is discussed based on criteria, including hardware modification required, size inflexibility, sensitivity to syngas contaminants, operational uncertainty, efficiency, lifetime, fast ramp up/down capability, controls and capital cost. Major challenges facing further development and commercialization of these power generation technologies are discussed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing vertical upper ocean temperature structures in the European Arctic through unsupervised machine learning

In-situ observations of subsurface ocean temperatures are, in many regions, inconsistently distributed in time and space. These spatio-temporal inconsistencies in the observational network lead to difficulties in utilizing those observations effectively for ocean model evaluation or understanding larger-scale ocean characteristics. Model accuracy of subsurface ocean characteristics is especially important within regions that contain complex ocean structures. One such region is the European Arctic which not only contains several types of water masses with unique characteristics, but also wintertime sea ice coverage and complex bathymetry. This study presents an unsupervised neural networking technique that can be used in combination with traditional ocean model evaluation techniques to provide additional information on the accuracy of modeled vertical ocean temperature profiles. Self-organizing maps is an unsupervised machine learning technique that we apply to approximately twenty thousand Argo and CTD temperature profiles from 2012 to 2020 in the European Arctic to categorize the observed vertical ocean temperature structures in the top 150 m. The observed ocean profile categories, or neurons, defined by the self-organizing map show strong spatial and temporal dependencies. We then use the neuron weights, or the learned temperature profile structure of each neuron, to validate the spatial and temporal variability of modeled vertical temperature structures. This analysis gives us new insights about the model’s capabilities to reproduce specific vertical structures of the top-most ocean layer within different regions and seasons. Mapping modeled ocean temperature profiles onto the neuron-space of the observationally-defined self organized map highlights the potential of this method to advance our understanding of model deficiencies in that region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A measurement of the Higgs boson mass in the diphoton decay channel

A measurement of the mass of the Higgs boson in the diphoton decay channel is presented. This analysis is based on 35.9 fb$^{-1}$ of proton-proton collision data collected during the 2016 LHC running period, with the CMS detector at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. A refined detector calibration and new analysis techniques have been used to improve the precision of this measurement. The Higgs boson mass is measured to be $m_\mathrm{H} =$ 125.78$\pm$0.26 GeV. This is combined with a measurement of $m_\mathrm{H}$ already performed in the H$\to$ZZ$\to$4$\ell$ decay channel using the same data set, giving $m_\mathrm{H} =$ 125.46$\pm$0.16 GeV. This result, when further combined with an earlier measurement of $m_\mathrm{H}$ using data collected in 2011 and 2012 with the CMS detector, gives a value for the Higgs boson mass of $m_\mathrm{H} =$ 125.38$\pm$0.14 GeV. This is currently the most precise measurement of the mass of the Higgs boson.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The quest to discover supersymmetry at the ATLAS experiment

The search for supersymmetry with the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider intensified after the discovery of the Higgs boson in 2012. The search programme expanded in both breadth and depth, profiting from the increased integrated luminosity and higher centre-of-mass energy for the collision data collected between 2015 and 2018, and gaining new sensitivity to unexplored areas of supersymmetry parameter space through the use of novel experimental signatures and innovative analysis techniques. This report summarises the supersymmetry searches at ATLAS using up to 140 fb −1 of pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, including the limits set on the production of gluinos, squarks, and electroweakinos for scenarios with or without R-parity conservation, and including models where some of the supersymmetric particles are long-lived.

Koeck, Daniela↗

DOE OSTI2024

Formation of five-membered ring structures via reactions of o -benzyne

The formation of five-membered ring structures is important for the generation of curved and bowl-shaped polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) under combustion conditions. Here, we report the identification of the indenyl (C 9 H 7 ) radical – the simplest aromatic hydrocarbon radical carrying an adjacent five- and six-membered ring, as the major product of the o-benzyne (o-C 6 H 4 ) reaction with propargyl (C 3 H 3 ). Because real flames exhibit a complex chemistry, elucidation of a specific reaction is very challenging. Instead, we studied the o-C 6 H 4 + C 3 H 3 reaction in a resistively heated microtubular SiC reactor at controlled conditions of 1150 K and a pressure near 10–20 Torr. To this end, the reactants o-benzyne and propargyl were pyrolytically generated from benzoyl chloride and propargyl bromide. We identified the reactants and the indenyl radical isomer-selectively utilizing photoion mass-selected threshold photoelectron spectroscopy (ms-TPES). In conclusion, the experimentally observed predominant formation of indenyl radicals finally confirms the theoretical predictions of Matsugi and Miyoshi [Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. 14 (2012), 9722–9728] and highlights a versatile route for the formation of five-membered rings and curved PAHs via reactions of o-benzyne that favor the formation of multiring species over aliphatically substituted aromatic species.

Molecular-weight growth↗

DOE OSTI2021

Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging

Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Responses of gaseous sulfuric acid and particulate sulfate to reduced SO 2 concentration: A perspective from long-term measurements in Beijing

SO 2 concentration decreased rapidly in recent years in China due to the implementation of strict control policies by the government. Particulate sulfate ( p S O 4 2 - ) and gaseous H 2 SO 4 (SA) are two major products of SO 2 and they play important roles in the haze formation and new particle formation (NPF), respectively. We examined the change in p S O 4 2 - and SA concentrations in response to reduced SO 2 concentration using long-term measurement data in Beijing. Simulations from the Community Multiscale Air Quality model with a 2-D Volatility Basis Set (CMAQ/2D-VBS) were used for comparison. From 2013 to 2018, SO 2 concentration in Beijing decreased by ~81% (from 9.1 ppb to 1.7 ppb). p S O 4 2 - concentration in submicrometer particles decreased by ~60% from 2012–2013 (monthly average of ~10 μg·m - 3 ) to 2018–2019 (monthly average of ~4 μg·m - 3 ). Accordingly, the fraction of p S O 4 2 - in these particles decreased from 20–30% to <10%. Increased sulfur oxidation ratio was observed both in the measurements and the CMAQ/2D-VBS simulations. Despite the reduction in SO 2 concentration, there was no obvious decrease in SA concentration based on data from several measuring periods from 2008 to 2019. This was supported by the increased SA:SO 2 ratio with reduced SO 2 concentration and condensation sink. NPF frequency in Beijing between 2004 and 2019 remains relatively constant. Finally, this constant NPF frequency is consistent with the relatively stable SA concentration in Beijing, while different from some other cities where NPF frequency was reported to decrease with decreased SO 2 concentrations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological projections over the Upper Indus Basin at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature increase

We analyse an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) to investigate future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan for the time horizons when the global and/or regional warming levels cross Paris Agreement (PA) targets. The GCMs data is obtained from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Based on the five best performing GCMs, we note that global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming thresholds are projected in 2026 and 2047 under RCP4.5 and 2022 and 3036 under RCP8.5 respectively while these thresholds are reached much earlier over Pakistan i.e. 2016 and 2030 under RCP4.5 and 2012 and 2025 under RCP8.5 respectively. Interestingly, the GCMs with the earliest emergence at the global scale are not necessarily the ones with the earliest emergence over Pakistan, highlighting spatial non-linearity in GCMs response. The emergence of 2.0 °C warming at global scale across 5 GCMs ranges from 2031 (CCSM4) to 2049 (NorESM) under RCP8.5. Precipitation generally exhibits a progressive increasing trend with stronger changes at higher warming or radiative forcing levels. Hydrological simulations representing the historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global and region warming time horizons indicate a robust but seasonally varying increase in the inflows. The highest inflows in the baseline and future are witnessed in July. However, the highest future increase in inflows is projected in October under RCP4.5 (37.99% and 65.11% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) and in April under RCP8.5 (37% and 62.05% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C). These hydrological changes are driven by increases in the snow and glacial melt contribution, which are more pronounced at 2.0 °C warming level. These findings should help for effective water management in Pakistan over the coming decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

HARD: A performance portable radiation hydrodynamics code based on FleCSI framework

Hydrodynamics And Radiation Diffusion (HARD) is an open-source application for high-performance simulations of compressible hydrodynamics with radiation-diffusion coupling. Built on the FleCSI (Bergen et al., 2021 [1]) (Flexible Computational Science Infrastructure) framework, HARD expresses its computational units as tasks whose execution can be orchestrated by multiple back-end runtimes, including Legion (Bauer et al., 2012 [2]), MPI (Forum, 1994 [3]), and HPX (Kaiser et al., 2020 [4]). Node-level parallelism is handled through Kokkos (Edwards et al., 2014 [5]), providing a single-source, portable code base that runs efficiently on laptops, small homogeneous clusters, and the largest heterogeneous supercomputers currently available. To ensure scientific reliability, HARD includes a regression test suite that automatically reproduces canonical verification problems such as the Sod and LeBlanc shock tubes, and the Sedov blast wave, comparing numerical solutions against known analytical results. The project is distributed under an OSI-approved license, hosted on GitHub, and accompanied by reproducible build scripts and continuous integration workflows. This combination of performance portability, verification infrastructure, and community-focused development makes HARD a sustainable platform for advancing radiation hydrodynamics research across multiple domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Does photoinduced structural change by β-rhombohedral boron occur at room temperature?

β-rhombohedral boron (β-B) is an intriguing solid among the elements. The crystal structure of β-B is widely accepted as a complex structure based on the B 12 clusters, and with a lot of intrinsic structural defects. In the last decade, β-B was proved to be the only elemental semiconductor that exhibits the self-compensation property accompanied by changing structural defects during atom doping. Moreover, it is reported that various physical properties of β-B change discontinuously around 550 K, which may originate from defect diffusion [S. Hoffmann and H. Werheit, Solid State Sciences 14, 1572 (2012)]. We previously reported that a volume expansion of about 1.5% takes place above this temperature (between 650 K and 850 K). On the other hand, this expanded structure is stable in dark conditions for more than 4.5 months. Finally, light irradiation at room temperature reverses the volume back to the initial state, and a possible scenario will be discussed in this paper.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Could on-site fuel storage economically reduce power plant-gas grid dependence in pipeline constrained areas like New England?

In the Northeastern United States, natural gas supply constraints have led to periods when gas shortages have caused up to a quarter of all unscheduled power plant outages. Dual fuel oil/gas generators or local gas storage might mitigate gas supply shortages. We use historical power plant operational and availability data to develop a supply curve of the costs required for generators to mitigate fuel shortage failures in New England. Based on 2012–2018 data, we find that the historical fuel shortages at approximately 2 GW worth of gas-fired capacity could be mitigated using on-site fuel storage. For comparison, New England’s average reserve margin was 1.7–2.8 GW over our sample period. Oil dual fuel plants would recoup their investment if compensated with a reliability adder of $\$ 3-7$/MWh during their normal operations, while $\$ 7-16$/MWh would incentivize using onsite, compressed natural gas storage. We estimate that the capital expenses associated with the fuel storage options would be less expensive than installing battery backup for resource adequacy at current battery prices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Changes in atmospheric circulation amplify extreme snowfall fueled by Arctic sea ice loss over high-latitude land

Arctic sea-ice retreat has been linked to increased winter precipitation and heavy snowfall over land, likely due to a combination of enhanced evaporation from ice-free Arctic marginal seas (AMS) and changes in atmospheric circulation. However, their relative roles and contributions remain uncertain. Here, we show that a greater proportion of AMS evaporative moisture reached high-latitude land during the cold seasons from 1980–1989 to 2012–2021. Atmospheric circulation changes added an additional 13 % increase in the AMS moisture contribution, accounting for 11 % of the total increase in AMS-sourced land precipitation. Notably, 46 % of the increase in AMS-sourced extreme snowfall is attributed to circulation-driven landward moisture transport, representing an 84 % increase beyond the effect of enhanced AMS evaporation alone. Further analysis indicates that both the rise in Arctic moisture and the atmospheric circulation shifts are primarily driven by anthropogenic forcing. These findings highlight how atmospheric circulation changes amplify extreme snowfall fueled by AMS evaporation, underscoring the synergistic effects of Arctic sea ice loss and circulation change on high-latitude winter precipitation.

Anthropogenic forcing↗