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At least 559 records · Page 31

Integrated Assessments of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia

South Asia encompasses a wide and highly varied geographic region, and includes climate zones ranging from the mountainous Himalayan territory to the tropical lowland and coastal zones along alluvial floodplains. The region's climate is dominated by a monsoonal circulation that heralds the arrival of seasonal rainfall, upon which much of the regional agriculture relies. The spatial and temporal distribution of this rainfall is, however, not uniform over the region. Northern South Asia, central India, and the west coast receive much of their rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, between June and September. These rains partly result from the moisture transport accompanying the monsoonal winds, which move in the southwesterly direction from the equatorial Indian Ocean. Regions further south, such as south/southeast India and Sri Lanka, may receive rains from both the southwest monsoon, and also during the northeast monsoon season between October and December (with northeasterly monsoon wind flow and moisture flux), which results in a bi- or multi-modal rainfall distribution. In addition, rainfall across South Asia displays a large amount of intraseasonal and interannual variability. Interannual variability is influenced by many drivers, both natural (e.g., El Ni-Southern Oscillation; ENSO) and man-made (e.g., rising temperatures due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations), and it is challenging to obtaining accurate time-series of annual rainfall, even amongst various observed data products, which display inconsistencies amongst themselves. These climatic and rainfall variations can further complicate South Asia's agricultural and water management. Agriculture employs at least 65 of the workforce in most South Asian countries, and nearly 80 of South Asia's poor inhabit rural areas. Understanding the response of current agricultural production to climate variability and future climate change is of utmost importance in securing food and livelihoods for South Asia's growing population. In order to assess the future of food and livelihood security across South Asia, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has undertaken integrated climate-crop-economic assessments of the impact of climate change on food security and poverty in South Asia, encompassing Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. AgMIP has funded, on a competitive basis, four South Asian regional research teams (RRTs) and one South Asian coordination team (CT) to undertake climate-crop-economic integrated assessments of food security for many districts in each of these countries, with the goal of characterizing the state of food security and poverty across the region, and projecting how these are subject to change under future climate change conditions.

mountains↗

X-ray emission from cataclysmic variables

X-ray observations of cataclysmic variables and theoretical work on X-ray emission from them are reviewed, emphasizing recent developments. Observations of luminosities and space densities, X-ray spectra and temporal behavior, and X-ray emitting cataclysmic variables in globular clusters are addressed. The relationship of disk and radial accretion to X-ray emission is qualitatively considered, and the spectra and correlation between spectral temperature and luminosity are examined for magnetic and nonmagnetic stars. The relationship between ionization structure and line features is summarized, and nuclear burning and electron conduction are briefly addressed. Important issues concerning X-ray emission from cataclysmic variables are discussed, including magnetic fields, the origin of hard and soft X-rays, the soft X-ray puzzle in AM Her stars, nuclear burning, long-period pulsing sources, cyclotron-dominated sources, high-luminosity sources, and the stability of accretion flow.

Lamb, D. Q.↗

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

NASA's Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE)

Nearly 40 years have passed since the last Apollo missions investigated the mysteries of the lunar atmosphere and the question of levitated lunar dust. The most important questions remain: what is the composition, structure and variability of the tenuous lunar exosphere? What are its origins, transport mechanisms, and loss processes? Is lofted lunar dust the cause of the horizon glow observed by the Surveyor missions and Apollo astronauts? How does such levitated dust arise and move, what is its density, and what is its ultimate fate? The US National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council decadal surveys and the recent "Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon" (SCEM) reports have identified studies of the pristine state of the lunar atmosphere and dust environment as among the leading priorities for future lunar science missions. These measurements have become particularly important since recent observations by the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) mission point to significant amounts of water and other volatiles sequestered within polar lunar cold traps. Moreover Chandrayaan/M3, EPOXI and Cassini/VIMS have identified molecular water and hydroxyl on lunar surface regolith grains. Variability in concentration suggests these species are likely to be present in the exosphere, and thus constitute a source for the cold traps. NASA s Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) is currently under development to address these goals. LADEE will determine the composition of the lunar atmosphere and investigate the processes that control its distribution and variability, including sources, sinks, and surface interactions. LADEE will also determine whether dust is present in the lunar exosphere, and reveal its sources and variability. LADEE s results are relevant to surface boundary exospheres and dust processes throughout the solar system, will address questions regarding the origin and evolution of lunar volatiles, and will have implications for future exploration activities. LADEE will be the first mission based on the Ames Common Bus design. LADEE employs a high heritage instrument payload: a Neutral Mass Spectrometer (NMS), an Ultraviolet/Visible Spectrometer (UVS), and the Lunar Dust Experiment (LDEX). It will also carry a space terminal as part of the Lunar Laser Communication Demonstration (LLCD), which is a technology demonstration. LLCD will also supply a ground terminal. LLCD is funded by the Space Operations Mission Directorate (SOMD), managed by GSFC, and built by MIT Lincoln Lab. NMS was directed to the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and UVS to Ames Research Center (ARC). LDEX was selected through the Stand Alone Missions of Opportunity Notice (SALMON) Acquisition Process, and is provided by the University of Colorado at Boulder. The LADEE NMS covers a m/z range of 2-150 and draws its design from mass spectrometers developed at GSFC for the MSL/SAM, Cassini Orbiter, CONTOUR, and MAVEN missions. The UVS instrument is a next-generation, high-reliability version of the LCROSS UV-Vis spectrometer, spanning 250-800 nm wavelength, with high (<1 nm) spectral resolution. UVS will also perform dust occultation measurements via a solar viewer optic. LDEX senses dust impacts in situ, at LADEE orbital altitudes of 50 km and below, with a particle size range of between 100 nm and 5 micron. Dust particle impacts on a large hemispherical target create electron and ion pairs. The latter are focused and accelerated in an electric field and detected at a microchannel plate. LADEE is an important part of NASA s portfolio of near-term lunar missions; launch is planned for May, 2013. The lunar atmosphere is the most accessible example of a surface boundary exosphere, and may reveal the sources and cycling of volatiles. Dynamic dust activity must be accounted for in the design and operation of lunar surface operations.

Elphic, Richard↗

Polarization Difference - The Scientific Story Behind One Variable and Its Practical Applications

Cloud ice and snow microphysical characteristics play an important role in determining cloud radiative effect. They are also closely connected to the details of surface precipitation characteristics. Ice orientation is one microphysical property that is traditionally believed to have trivial impact on the weather systems/climate, and it is hard to measure from space. In this presentation, I will show how many scientific stories can be told from one variable – the brightness temperature difference between vertically-polarized and horizontally-polarized 166 GHz measurements from the Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GPM-GMI). Through scrutinizing collocated CloudSat, GMI and GPM radar observations together with the aid of radiative transfer model simulations, we can not only tell apart the particle size, shape and orientation, but also understand the precipitation regime as well as the life stage of a a precipitation system. In the second half of my talk, I will showcase how this variable can be used for predicting precipitation flags and separating mixed-phase cloud from liquid and ice with the powerful machine learning/artificial intelligence (ML/AI) technique.

cloud ice and snow microphysical characteristics↗

An interim reference model for the variability of the middle atmosphere H2O vapor distribution

Water vapor is an important minor constituent in the studies of the middle atmosphere for a variety of reasons, including its role as a source for active HO(y) chemicals and its use in analysis of transport processes. A number of in situ and remote techniques were employed in the determination of water vapor distributions. Two of the more complete data sets were used to develop an interim reference profile. First, there are the seven months of Nimbus 7 limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) data obtained during Nov. 1978 to May 1979 over the range 64S to 84N latitude and from about 100 to 1 mb in the mid-mesosphere at several fixed Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude sites. These two data sets were combined to give a mid-lattitude, interim reference water vapor profile for the entire vertical range of the middle atmosphere and with accuracies of better than 25 percent. The daily variability of stratospheric water vapor profiles about the monthly mean was also established from these data sets for selected months. Information is also provided on the longitudinal variability of LIMS water vapor profiles about the daily, weekly, and monthly zonal means. Generally, the interim reference water vapor profile and its variability are consistent with prevailing ideas about chemistry and transport.

Remsberg, E. E.↗

Factors which influence the analysis and design of ejector nozzles

A theoretical analysis of the viscous interaction between the primary and secondary streams of ejector nozzles was developed. The analysis accounts for real sonic line effects and the streamwise variation in stream mixing and boundary layer within the ejector. The aspects of the analysis are explained and illustrated by applying the theory to a variety of ejector configurations including cylindrical shroud, contoured flap and plug nozzles. Extensive comparisons are made between theory and data to show the importance of various analytical assumptions and such design variables as diameter ratio, spacing ratio, total temperature ratio, and primary nozzle geometry.

Anderson, B. H.↗

Factors which influence the analysis and design of ejector nozzles.

A theoretical analysis of the viscous interaction between the primary and secondary streams of ejector nozzles was developed. The analysis accounts for real sonic-line effects and the streamwise variation in stream mixing and boundary layer within the ejector. The aspects of the analysis are explained and illustrated by applying the theory to a variety of ejector configurations including cylindrical shroud, contoured flap and plug nozzles. Extensive comparisons are made between theory and data to show the importance of various analytical assumptions and such design variables as diameter ratio, spacing ratio, total temperature ratio, and primary nozzle geometry.

Anderson, B. H.↗

The Economic Effect of Competition in the Air Transportation Industry

The air transportation industry has been described as a highly-competitive, regulated oligopoly or as a price-regulated cartel with blocked entry, resulting in excessive service and low load factors. The current structure of the industry has been strongly influenced by the hypotheses that increased levels of competition are desirable per se, and that more competing carriers can be economically supported in larger markets, in longer haul markets, with lower unit costs, and with higher fare levels. An elementary application of competition/game theory casts doubt on the validity of these hypotheses, but rather emphasizes the critical importance of the short-term non-variable costs in determining economic levels of competition.

Hubbard, H. B.↗

Escort: A data acquisition and display system to support research testing

Primarily designed to acquire data at steady state test conditions, the system can also monitor slow transients such as those generated in moving to a new test condition. The system configuration makes use of a microcomputer at the test site which acts as a communications multiplexer between the measurement and display devices and a centrally located minicomputer. A variety of measurement and display devices are supported using a modular approach. This allows each system to be configured with the proper combination of devices to meet the specific test requirements, while still leaving the option to add special interfaces when needed. Centralization of the minicomputer improves utilization through sharing. The creation of a pool of minis to provide data acquisition and display services to a variable number of running tests also offers other important advantages.

Miller, R. L.↗

Curvilinear projection developments

Gradient projection is a powerful algorithm for minimization of a function subject to constraints. Constraint nonlinearities hamper projection computations. The constraints must then be restored before another projection cycle. The restoration steps taken in the process of following nonlinear constraint surfaces can be used as a guide to the construction of a curve which more nearly follows the constraints than does the straight line in the projected gradient direction. This scheme, termed 'curvilinear projection', was explored in earlier research. The study presently reported carries out some computational experiments using a related version of the technique. Some other details of projection computations which turn out to be practically important are taken up: rules for updating the variable metric in projection when early termination of the one-dimensional search on constraint violation occurs, and active-constraint logic for screening inequalities that makes use of the Kuhn-Tucker necessary conditions.

Kelley, H. J.↗

The wave structures of the Eady model of baroclinic instability

By solving the linear quasi-geostrophic set of equations pertinent to the Eady model, the complex eigenvalues and the eigenfunctions are obtained. The propagation speed and the growth rate are computed. Quantitative information is provided about the wave structures for several unstable models, a marginally stable mode, and a stable mode. The peculiarities concerning the amplitude and the phase variations of the waves are noted as the wavenumber varies from the unstable region to the stable region. Physical interpretations of the interrelationships among the dynamical variables are given, with a view toward revealing important aspects of the energy transfer from the basic state to the growing waves.

Hyun, J. M.↗

Research on atmospheric volcanic emissions - An overview

Atmospheric abundances and the geochemical cycle of certain volatile compounds and elements may be largely influenced or entirely controlled by magmatic sources. However, better estimates of the magnitude and variability of volcanic emissions are required if the importance of this natural source of atmospheric constituents and the resulting effect on atmospheric chemistry are to be elucidated. The project 'Research on Atmospheric Volcanic Emissions' (RAVE) is concerned with the improvement of knowledge of both geological and chemical phenomena attending these emissions by means of comprehensive instrumentation on board a research aircraft making simultaneous measurements of plume constituents. A description is presented of the equipment and the procedures used in the RAVE field study of Mt. St. Helens' plume. An overview of the results is also provided.

Friend, J. P.↗

Precipitation measurements for earth-space communications: Accuracy requirements and ground-truth techniques

Rainfall which is regarded as one of the more important observations for the measurements of this most variable parameter was made continuously, across large areas and over the sea. Ships could not provide the needed resolution nor could available radars provide the needed breadth of coverage. Microwave observations from the Nimbus-5 satellite offered some hope. Another possibility was suggested by the results of many comparisons between rainfall and the clouds seen in satellite pictures. Sequences of pictures from the first geostationary satellites were employed and a general correspondence between rain and the convective clouds visible in satellite pictures was found. It was demonstrated that the agreement was best for growing clouds. The development methods to infer GATE rainfall from geostationary satellite images are examined.

Ippolito, L. J.↗

Controller scheduling - A possible algebraic viewpoint

In the applications, one common way to design a control system for a nonlinear plant is to localize its behavior along lines of operation specified by the plant manufacturer, to develop linear multi-variable controls for these localizations, and to schedule those controls with key plant variables which vary smoothly along operating lines. An important part of practical design lore, the art of controller scheduling has received little modern attention from the conceptual point of view. This paper describes four basic types of scheduling questions and outlines some of the theoretical issues associated with them. Schedules are considered in terms of state equations; however, some relations with the input/output description are discussed, together with an analysis of the effects on the overall configuration of approximations made to the individual subsystems.

Sain, M.↗

Heat sink effects on weld bead: VPPA process

An investigation into the heat sink effects due to weldment irregularities and fixtures used in the variable polarity plasma arc (VPPA) process was conducted. A basic two-dimensional model was created to represent the net heat sink effect of surplus material using Duhamel's theorem to superpose the effects of an infinite number of line heat sinks of variable strength. Parameters were identified that influence the importance of heat sink effects. A characteristic length, proportional to the thermal diffusivity of the weldment material divided by the weld torch travel rate, correlated with heat sinking observations. Four tests were performed on 2219-T87 aluminum plates to which blocks of excess material were mounted in order to demonstrate heat sink effects. Although the basic model overpredicted these effects, it correctly indicated the trends shown in the experimental study and is judged worth further refinement.

Steranka, Paul O., Jr.↗

Heat sink effects on weld bead: VPPA process

An investigation into the heat sink effects due to weldment irregularities and fixtures used in the variable polarity plasma arc (VPPA) process was conducted. A basic two-dimensional model was created to represent the net heat sink effect of surplus material using Duhamel's theorem to superpose the effects of an infinite number of line heat sinks of variable strength. Parameters were identified that influence the importance of heat sink effects. A characteristic length, proportional to the thermal diffusivity of the weldment material divided by the weld torch travel rate, correlated with heat sinking observations. Four tests were performed on 2219-T87 aluminum plates to which blocks of excess material were mounted in order to demonstrate heat sink effects. Although the basic model overpredicted these effects, it correctly indicated the trends shown in the experimental study and is judged worth further refinement.

Steranka, Paul O., Jr.↗

The influence of tropical heating displacements on the extratropical climate

The hypothesis is advanced that a latitudinal shift in the tropical convective heating pattern can significantly alter temperatures in the extratropics. Results of a simplified general circulation model (GCM) show that the shift of a prescribed tropical heating toward the summer pole, on time scales longer than a few weeks, leads to a more intense cross-equatorial 'winter' Hadley circulation, enhanced upper-level tropical easterlies, and a slightly stronger subtropical winter jet, accompanied by warming at the winter middle and high latitudes as a result of increased dynamical heating. The indications are that there is a robust connection between the net dynamic heating in the extratropics and the implied changes in the subtropical wind shear resulting from adjustments in the Hadley circulation associated with convective heating displacements in the tropics. The implications are that (1) the low-frequency temporal variability in the Hadley circulation may play an important role in modulating wave transport in the winter extratropics, (2) the global climate may be sensitive to those processes that control deep cumulus convection in the tropics, and (3) systematic temperature biases in GCMs may be reduced by improving the tropical rainfall simulation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗