An Introduction to the E3SM Special Collection: Goals, Science Drivers, Development, and Analysis
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “variability prediction”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Dynamics of phage-host interactions in Bacteroides fragilis resolved by single-cell transcriptomics
The interactions between lytic phages and their hosts are typically studied in bulk culture, which obscures cell-cell differences in infection susceptibility or expression of protective factors. Here, we use bacterial single-cell RNA sequencing to profile the transcriptomes of ~50,000 cells from cultures of a human pathobiont, Bacteroides fragilis, infected with a lytic bacteriophage. From a single sampling, we quantified the asynchronous progression of phage infection in individual bacterial cells and reconstructed the infection timeline, characterizing both host and phage transcriptomic changes as infection unfolded. Further, we discovered phenotypic subpopulations of bacteria that remained uninfected. Each cell’s vulnerability to phage infection was influenced by expression of multiple genetic loci, most prominently phase-variable capsular polysaccharide (CPS) biosynthesis pathways and an operon predicted to encode fimbrial genes. These findings uncovered genome-wide phase variation and stochasticity that enable bacterial survival and re-growth without acquiring additional mutations. Overall, we establish bacterial single-cell RNA sequencing as a powerful platform for investigating the dynamics of host-phage interactions and revealing the roles of phase variation and stochasticity in bacterial defenses.
Bacteria↗
Application of machine learning approaches in the analysis of mass absorption cross-section of black carbon aerosols: Aerosol composition dependencies and sensitivity analyses
Physics-based models typically require an in-depth understanding of a phenomenon and assumptions of the underlying process(es), which are often hard to obtain in practice, whereas data-driven machine learning models learn the structure and patterns in the training data without any prior theoretical assumptions and then use inference to develop useful predictions. A novel machine learning-based algorithm has been previously developed for the prediction of black carbon mass absorption cross-section (MAC BC ) and applied to a variety of different atmospheric environments. In contrast to light scattering theories which require assumptions about the underlying physics, this algorithm uses time-series data of aerosol properties to estimate the temporally-varying MAC BC at 870 nm. Here, we analyze our algorithm and discuss the influence of aerosol optical properties (such as Ångström exponents and single scattering albedo) and chemical composition on the model outputs and the associated accuracy. Additionally, we conduct sensitivity analyses on our models to understand how the predictions change in response to different sets of input variables. Our support vector machine (SVM) for regression model is the least sensitive to variations in the input variables, although all models tend to exhibit a degradation to their accuracy when scattering Ångström exponents are less than one.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Popnet : computer vision based deep learning model for forecasting gridded population
Here, this study introduces Popnet, a deep learning model for forecasting 1 km-gridded populations, integrating U-Net, ConvLSTM, a Spatial Autocorrelation module and deep ensemble methods. Using spatial variables and population data from 2000 to 2020, Popnet predicts South Korea’s population trends by age groups (under 14, 15-64 and over 65) up to 2040. In validation, it outperforms traditional machine learning and state-of-the-art computer vision models. The output of this model discovered significant polarisation: population growth in urban areas, especially the capital region, and severe depopulation in rural areas. Popnet is a robust tool for offering significant insights to policymakers and related stakeholders about the detailed future population, which allows them to establish detailed, localised planning and resource allocations.
computer vision↗
Search for an Anomalous Production of Charged-Current 𝜈 𝑒 Interactions without Visible Pions across Multiple Kinematic Observables in MicroBooNE
This Letter presents an investigation of low-energy electron-neutrino interactions in the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam by the MicroBooNE experiment, motivated by the excess of electron-neutrino-like events observed by the MiniBooNE experiment. This is the first measurement to use data from all five years of operation of the MicroBooNE experiment, corresponding to an exposure of 1.11 × 10 21 protons on target, a 70% increase on past results. Two samples of electron neutrino interactions without visible pions are used, one with visible protons and one without any visible protons. The MicroBooNE data show reasonable agreement with the nominal prediction, with 𝑝 values ≥26.7% when the two 𝜈 𝑒 samples are combined, though the prediction exceeds the data in limited regions of phase space. The data are further compared to two empirical models that modify the predicted rate of electron-neutrino interactions in different variables in the simulation to match the unfolded MiniBooNE low energy excess. In the first model, this unfolding is performed as a function of electron neutrino energy, while the second model aims to match the observed shower energy and angle distributions of the MiniBooNE excess. This measurement excludes an electronlike interpretation of the MiniBooNE excess based on these models at >99% CLs in all kinematic variables.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Measurements of $W^{+}W^{-}$ production in decay topologies inspired by searches for electroweak supersymmetry
This paper presents a measurement of fiducial and differential cross-sections for $W$ + $W$ - production in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = $13$ TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider using a dataset corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . Events with exactly one electron, one muon and no hadronic jets are studied. The fiducial region in which the measurements are performed is inspired by searches for the electroweak production of supersymmetric charginos decaying to two-lepton final states. The selected events have moderate values of missing transverse momentum and the ‘stransverse mass’ variable $m$ T2 , which is widely used in searches for supersymmetry at the LHC. The ranges of these variables are chosen so that the acceptance is enhanced for direct $W$ + $W$ - production and suppressed for production via top quarks, which is treated as a background. The fiducial cross-section and particle-level differential cross-sections for six variables are measured and compared with two theoretical SM predictions from perturbative QCD calculations.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Coupled Biotic-Abiotic Processes Control Biogeochemical Cycling of Dissolved Organic Matter in the Columbia River Hyporheic Zone
A critical component of assessing the impacts of climate change on watershed ecosystems involves understanding the role that dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays in driving whole ecosystem metabolism. The hyporheic zone—a biogeochemical control point where ground water and river water mix—is characterized by high DOM turnover and microbial activity and is responsible for a large fraction of lotic respiration. Yet, the dynamic nature of this ecotone provides a challenging but important environment to parse out different DOM influences on watershed function and net carbon and nutrient fluxes. We used high-resolution Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry to provide a detailed molecular characterization of DOM and its transformation pathways in the Columbia river watershed. Samples were collected from ground water (adjacent unconfined aquifer underlying the Hanford 300 Area), Columbia river water, and its hyporheic zone. The hyporheic zone was sampled at five locations to capture spatial heterogeneity within the hyporheic zone. Our results revealed that abiotic transformation pathways (e.g., carboxylation), potentially driven by abiotic factors such as sunlight, in both the ground water and river water are likely influencing DOM availability to the hyporheic zone, which could then be coupled with biotic processes for enhanced microbial activity. The ground water profile revealed high rates of N and S transformations via abiotic reactions. The river profile showed enhanced abiotic photodegradation of lignin-like molecules that subsequently entered the hyporheic zone as low molecular weight, more degraded compounds. While the compounds in river water were in part bio-unavailable, some were further shown to increase rates of microbial respiration. Together, river water and ground water enhance microbial activity within the hyporheic zone, regardless of river stage, as shown by elevated putative amino-acid transformations and the abundance of amino-sugar and protein-like compounds. This enhanced microbial activity is further dependent on the composition of ground water and river water inputs. Our results further suggest that abiotic controls on DOM should be incorporated into predictive modeling for understanding watershed dynamics, especially as climate variability and land use could affect light exposure and changes to ground water essential elements, both shown to impact the Columbia river hyporheic zone.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
A Model Predictive Control to Improve Grid Resilience
The following article details a model predictive control (MPC) to improve grid resilience when faced with variable generation resources. This topic is of significant interest to utility power systems where distributed intermittent energy sources will increase significantly and be relied on for electric grid ancillary services. Previous work on MPCs has focused on narrowly targeted control applications such as improving electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure or reducing the cost of integrating Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) into the grid. In contrast, this article develops a comprehensive treatment of the construction of an MPC tailored to electric grids and then applies it integration of intermittent energy resources. To accomplish this, the following article includes a description of a reduced order model (ROM) of an electric power grid based on a circuit model, an optimization formulation that describes the MPC, a collocation method for solving linear time-dependent differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that result from the ROM, and an overall strategy for iteratively refining the behavior of the MPC. Next, the algorithm is validated using two separate numerical experiments. First, the algorithm is compared to an existing MPC code and the results are verified by a numerically precise simulation. It is shown that this algorithm produces a control comparable to existing algorithms and the behavior of the control carefully respects the bounds specified. Second, the MPC is applied to a small nine bus system that contains a mix of turbine-spinning-machine-based and intermittent generation in order to demonstrate the algorithm’s utility for resource planning and control of intermittent resources. This study demonstrates how the MPC can be tuned to change the behavior of the control, which can then assist with the integration of intermittent resources into the grid. The emphasis throughout the paper is to provide systematic treatment of the topic and produce a novel nonlinear control compatible design framework applicable to electric grids and the control of variable resources. This differs from the more targeted application-based focus in most presentations.
microgrid↗
Gaussian Kernel Methods for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Mid-Rise Buildings
Seismic fragility functions can be evaluated using the cloud analysis method with linear regression which makes three fundamental assumptions about the relation between structural response and seismic intensity: log-linear median relationship, constant standard deviation, and Gaussian distributed errors. While cloud analysis with linear regression is a popular method, the degree to which these individual and compounded assumptions affect the fragility and the risk of mid-rise buildings needs to be systematically studied. This paper conducts such a study considering three building archetypes that make up a bulk of the building stock: RC moment frame, steel moment frame, and wood shear wall. Gaussian kernel methods are employed to capture the data-driven variations in the median structural response and standard deviation and the distributions of residuals with the intensity level. With reference to the Gaussian kernels approach, it is found that while the linear regression assumptions may not affect the fragility functions of lower damage states, this conclusion does not hold for the higher damage states (such as the Complete state). In addition, the effects of linear regression assumptions on the seismic risk are evaluated. For predicting the demand hazard, it is found that the linear regression assumptions can impact the computed risk for larger structural response values. However, for predicting the loss hazard with downtime as the decision variable, linear regression can be considered adequate for all practical purposes.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
ADDITIVELY MANUFACTURED SURFACE HEAT TRANSFER ENHANCEMENTS FOR THE TRANSFORMATIONAL CHALLENGE REACTOR
The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) is a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor design that uses additively manufactured fuel elements. TCR fuel elements have walls made of silicon carbide and are filled with tristructural-isotropic fuel particles. These fuel elements can have radically different shapes and integrated features than existing designs due to the reduced cost for complex structures in binder jet additive manufacturing. As such, binder jet additive manufacturing enables wall surface features to be embedded that can deliver superior heat transfer performance than smooth wall designs. In this work, the authors conducted a computational fluid dynamics study to evaluate selected wall features integrated into TCR fuel elements. Results show that surface features can outperform smooth wall designs; however, there are unique challenges for gas-cooled reactor core designs that have not been fully explored by previous research. For example, the rough surface finish and process variability of ceramics additive manufacturing make it challenging to predict surface roughness effects before fabrication. Additionally, the small hydraulic diameters of coolant channels in reactor cores make it difficult to engineer surface features that do not significantly increase the pressure drop. Engineers must carefully size surface features for heat transfer enhancement in additive fuel elements to operate above the base material's surface roughness effects and below the coolant channel size.
Weinmeister, Justin↗
Uncertain characterization of reservoir fluids due to brittleness of equation of state regression
Equations of state (EoS) play a central role in modeling the phase equilibrium of fluid mixtures. Their parameterization involves fitting a model to experimental data, i.e., solving a nonlinear, non-convex, multivariate optimization problem. The latter requires one to select design variables, domains of definition for each variable, and weights assigned to individual measurements. We demonstrate that subjective choices of an optimization algorithm and an initial guess also impact the regression process. Consequently, EoS predictions are fundamentally uncertain even after the EoS tuning to a limited set of experimental data points. We demonstrate this observation for two hydrocarbon reservoir fluids, in which five properties of the heaviest carbon fraction are treated as design variables. While all the optimization algorithms and initial guesses match experimental data for the gas and liquid properties, the resulting EoS parameterizations lead to dramatically different predictions of the fluid’s thermophysical behavior in the unsampled pressure and temperature regions. In conclusion, we propose the probabilistic treatment of design variables to quantify the predictive uncertainty of the resulting fluid models.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
A Proposed Beam-Beam Test Facility COMBINE
The COmpact Machine for Beam-beam Interactions in Non-Equilibrium systems (COMBINE) is a proposed, dedicated, beam-beam test facility. This is currently a joint effort between Jefferson Lab and Old Dominion University to create a small, low energy pair of collider rings that would be used to study beam-beam interactions, as well as act as a teaching tool for students. The base design would make use of a pair of identical rings (2.5 meters per side) one rotated 180 degrees from the other, meeting at their common interaction point. These would be fed by an electron gun producing up to 125 keV electrons. The low energy will allow for beam-beam tune shifts commensurate with existing colliders, and will also allow for an exploration of the predicted effects of gear-changing, which would be performed using a variable pathlength scheme. Finally, this machine can also test linac-ring type systems.
Nissen, Edith↗
Efficient data-driven models for prediction and optimization of geothermal power plant operations
Increasing the capacity of geothermal energy as a renewable resource calls for development and deployment of efficient control and optimization technologies for geothermal power plants. A data-driven prediction and optimization model is presented as a cost-effective and efficient alternative to physics-based approach. The model predicts power output and operational cost by propagating the influence of control and disturbance variables within an artificial neural network (ANN). Numerical experiments with simulated and field data from a real geothermal power plant are first used to demonstrate the prediction performance of the ANN model. The model is then adopted to maximize the net predicted power production by automatically adjusting the working fluid circulation rate. The optimization performance of the model in evaluated using a thermodynamic flowsheet simulation model. The workflow is applied to model and control the effect of ambient temperature on an air-cooled binary cycle power plant, which is complex and costly to perform using a physics-based predictive model. As a result, the performance of the method is demonstrated by applying it to both simulated and field datasets from a binary cycle geothermal power plant.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Association of Serum Bile Acid and Unsaturated Fatty Acid Profiles with the Risk of Diabetic Retinopathy in Type 2 Diabetic Patients
Aim: We aimed to identify the ability of serum bile acids (BAs) and unsaturated fatty acids (UFAs) profiles to predict the development of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients. Methods: We first used univariate and multivariate analysis to compare 15 serum BA and 11 UFA levels in healthy control (HC) group (n = 82), T2DM patients with DR (n = 58) and T2DM patients without DR (n = 60). Forty T2DM patients were considered for validation. Then, the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and decision curve analysis were used to assess the diagnostic value and clinical benefit of serum biomarkers alone, clinical variables alone or in combination, and the area under the curve (AUC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were used to further assess whether the addition of biomarkers significantly improved the predictive ability of the model. Results: Orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) of serum BAs and UFAs separated the three cohorts including HC, T2DM patients with or without DR. The difference in serum BA and UFA profiles of T2DM patients with or without DR was mainly manifested in the three metabolites of taurolithocholic acid (TLCA), tauroursodeoxycholic acid (TUDCA) and arachidonic acid (AA). Together, they had an AUC of 0.785 (0.918 for validation cohort) for predicting DR in T2DM patients. After adjusting for numerous confounding factors, TLCA, TUDCA, and AA were independent predictors that differentiated T2DM with or without DR. The results of AUC, IDI, and NRI demonstrated that adding these three biomarkers to a model with clinical variables statistically increased their predictive value and were replicated in our independent validation cohort. Conclusion: These findings highlight the association of three metabolites, TLCA, TUDCA and AA, with DR and may indicate their potential value in the pathogenesis of DR.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Spatiotemporal Metabolic Network Models Reveal Complex Autotroph-Heterotroph Biofilm Interactions Governed by Photon Incidences
Autotroph-heterotroph interactions are ubiquitous in natural environment and play a key role in controlling various essential ecosystem functions, such as production and utilization of organic matter, cycling of nitrogen, sulfur, and other chemical elements. Understanding how these biofilm metabolic interactions are constrained in space and time remains challenging because fully predictive models designed for this purpose are currently limited. Toward filling this gap, here we developed community metabolic network models for two autotroph-heterotroph biofilm consortia (termed UCC-A and UCC-O), which share a suite of common heterotrophic members but have a single distinct photoautotrophic cyanobacterium (Phormidesmis priestleyi str. ANA and Phormidium sp. OSCR) that provides organic carbon and nitrogen sources to support the growth of heterotrophic partners. After determining model parameters by data fitting using the spatiotemporal distributions of microbial abundances, we comparatively analyzed the resulting biofilm models to examine any fundamental differences in microbial interactions between the two consortia under the variation of key environmental variables: CO2 and photon levels. The UCC-A model predicted generally expected responses, i.e., the autotroph population increased in response to elevated levels of CO2 and photon, followed by increase in the heterotroph population. In contrast, the UCC-O model showed somewhat complicated dynamics, e.g., higher photon incidence rates resulted in the increase in autotroph population but decrease in heterotroph population due to the lowered provision of glucose from the autotroph. A further analysis showed that species coexistence was governed by the photon incidences rather than the carbon availability for UCC-O, which was the opposite for UCC-A.
Phalak, Poonam↗
Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error
Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Resolving the Valence of Iron Oxides by Resonant Photoemission Spectroscopy
Precisely determining the oxidation states of metal cations within variable-valence transition metal oxides remains a significant challenge, yet it is crucial for understanding and predicting the properties of these technologically important materials. Iron oxides, in particular, exhibit a remarkable diversity of electronic structures due to the variable valence states of iron (Fe 2+ and Fe 3+ ). A quantitative analysis using conventional X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) is challenging because of the strong overlap of the Fe 2p XPS peaks from different oxidation states. Here, in this study, we show how this problem can be resolved using Resonant Photoemission Spectroscopy (ResPES), which unambiguously distinguishes Fe oxidation states and spectroscopically estimates the composition ratio of Fe cation valence states in the complex Fe oxides. We demonstrate this in the model case of a FeO 2 monolayer film on Pt(111), showing that the FeO 2 film consists of an equal mixture of Fe 2+ and Fe 3+ cations, yielding an average valence of +2.5, contrary to the +3 valence proposed based on density functional theory (DFT).
Chen, Hao [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (↗
Measurement of charged particle multiplicity distributions in DIS at HERA and its implication to entanglement entropy of partons
Charged particle multiplicity distributions in positron-proton deep inelastic scattering at a centre-of-mass energy √s = 319 GeV are measured. The data are collected with the H1 detector at HERA corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 136 pb -1 . Charged particle multiplicities are measured as a function of photon virtuality Q 2 , inelasticity y and pseudorapidity η in the laboratory and the hadronic centre-of-mass frames. Predictions from different Monte Carlo models are compared to the data. The first and second moments of the multiplicity distributions are determined and the KNO scaling behaviour is investigated. The multiplicity distributions as a function of Q 2 and the Bjorken variable x bj are converted to the hadron entropy S hadron , and predictions from a quantum entanglement model are tested.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗