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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Leveraging CPF Spectral Information for Effective Angular Corrections in Sensor Inter-calibration Studies

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory Pathfinder (CPF) mission will provide a high-accuracy (0.3% radiometric uncertainty at k=1) SI-traceable on-orbit calibration reference for sensor intercalibration in reflective solar spectral region. CPF inter-calibration algorithms have been developed to address various sampling differences between CPF and target sensors, particularly in spectral, angular, spatial and temporal domains. CPF provides unique hyper-spectral measurements that allow the utilization of rich spectral information for critical inter-calibration procedures including angular correction and spectral-gap filling. The angular correction scheme of CPF mission has been constructed based on the spectral correlation relationship between CPF observed spectra and the spectra to be measured at the viewing/sun geometry angles of target sensors. The angular correction relationship is both angular and scene dependent. The scene variability issue can impose undesired uncertainties that complicates the correction for those errors. We have demonstrated that hyper-spectral radiance information can be well utilized to identify different scene types associated with CPF observations. Using spectral radiances-based scene clustering analysis can greatly reduce the uncertainty associated with the angular correction algorithm. Additionally, a reliable quality control scheme has been established, utilizing spectral similarity and regression-prediction error analyses, to ensure the successful and efficient implementation of the angular correction method.

Wan Wu↗

NASA NTRS2015

Comparison of Human Exploration Architecture and Campaign Approaches

As part of an overall focus on space exploration, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) continues to evaluate potential approaches for sending humans beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). In addition, various external organizations are studying options for beyond LEO exploration. Recent studies include NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign and Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0, JPL's Minimal Mars Architecture; the Inspiration Mars mission; the Mars One campaign; and the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER). Each of these potential exploration constructs applies unique methods, architectures, and philosophies for human exploration. It is beneficial to compare potential approaches in order to better understand the range of options available for exploration. Since most of these studies were conducted independently, the approaches, ground rules, and assumptions used to conduct the analysis differ. In addition, the outputs and metrics presented for each construct differ substantially. This paper will describe the results of an effort to compare and contrast the results of these different studies under a common set of metrics. The paper will first present a summary of each of the proposed constructs, including a description of the overall approach and philosophy for exploration. Utilizing a common set of metrics for comparison, the paper will present the results of an evaluation of the potential benefits, critical challenges, and uncertainties associated with each construct. The analysis framework will include a detailed evaluation of key characteristics of each construct. These will include but are not limited to: a description of the technology and capability developments required to enable the construct and the uncertainties associated with these developments; an analysis of significant operational and programmatic risks associated with that construct; and an evaluation of the extent to which exploration is enabled by the construct, including the destinations visited and the exploration capabilities provided at those destinations. Based upon the comparison of constructs, the paper will identify trends and lessons learned across all of the candidate studies.

Goodliff, Kandyce↗

NASA NTRS1994

Hypersonic vehicle model and control law development using H(infinity) and micron synthesis

The control system design for a Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) air breathing vehicle will be central to a successful mission because a precise ascent trajectory will preserve narrow payload margins. The air breathing propulsion system requires the vehicle to fly roughly halfway around the Earth through atmospheric turbulence. The turbulence, the high sensitivity of the propulsion system to inlet flow conditions, the relatively large uncertainty of the parameters characterizing the vehicle, and continuous acceleration make the problem especially challenging. Adequate stability margins must be provided without sacrificing payload mass since payload margins are critical. Therefore, a multivariable control theory capable of explicitly including both uncertainty and performance is needed. The H(infinity) controller in general provides good robustness but can result in conservative solutions for practical problems involving structured uncertainty. Structured singular value mu framework for analysis and synthesis is potentially much less conservative and hence more appropriate for problems with tight margins. An SSTO control system requires: highly accurate tracking of velocity and altitude commands while limiting angle-of-attack oscillations, minimized control power usage, and a stabilized vehicle when atmospheric turbulence and system uncertainty are present. The controller designs using H(infinity) and mu-synthesis procedures were compared. An integrated flight/propulsion dynamic mathematical model of a conical accelerator vehicle was linearized as the vehicle accelerated through Mach 8. Vehicle acceleration through the selected flight condition gives rise to parametric variation that was modeled as a structured uncertainty. The mu-analysis approach was used in the frequency domain to conduct controller analysis and was confirmed by time history plots. Results demonstrate the inherent advantages of the mu framework for this class of problems.

Gregory, Irene M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Robustness of solutions to a benchmark control problem

The stochastic robustness of solutions to a benchmark control design problem has been analyzed. The analysis quantifies the controllers' stability and performance robustness with structured uncertainties in up to six system parameters. The analysis provides insights about system response that are not readily derived from other robustness criteria, providing a common ground for judging controllers produced by alternative methods.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Robustness of solutions to a benchmark control problem

The robustness of 10 solutions to a benchmark control design problem presented at the 1990 American Control Conference has been evaluated. The 10 controllers have second-to-eighth-order transfer functions and have been designed using several different methods, including H-infinity optimization, loop-transfer recovery, imaginary-axis shifting, constrained optimization, structured covariance, game theory, and the internal model principle. Stochastic robustness analysis quantifies the controllers' stability and performance robustness with structured uncertainties in up to six system parameters. The analysis provides insights into system response that are not readily derived from other robustness criteria and provides a common ground for judging controllers produced by alternative methods. One important conclusion is that gain and phase margins are not reliable indicators of the probability of instability. Furthermore, parameter variations actually may improve the likelihood of achieving selected performance metrics, as demonstrated by results for the probability of settling-time exceedance.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

On Simulating the Impacts of Open Water Bodies on the SMAP Passive Soil Moisture Data Product

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) mission is a NASA earth science mission aiming at improving our understanding of the dynamics of the cycles of energy, water, and carbon at global scales. The mission features two complementary sensors on the same low-Earth orbiting platform: an L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) operating at 1.26 GHz and an L-band radiometer operating at 1.41 GHz. Together these instruments will provide global mapping of soil moisture and freeze/thaw states in 2-3 days, with a tentative launch date in 2014. The work reported in this study focuses primarily on the development of the SMAP radiometer-only soil moisture data product. For passive soil moisture retrieval at satellite footprint scales, one way to improve retrieval accuracy is to correct for the microwave emission from open water bodies prior to retrieval. The accuracy of this correction will depend on not only the locations of these water bodies, but also the geolocation accuracy of the instrument. As perfect knowledge is never attainable in practice, it is important to assess the impacts of these uncertainties on the SMAP radiometer observations and hence the passive soil moisture retrieval accuracy. In this presentation, we present the results of our preliminary assessment on the impacts of these uncertainties. Our study consists of two parts: (1) a sensitivity analysis on the SMAP radiometer observations due to uncertainties in water-body classification, and (2) realistic global simulations that take into account of additional uncertainties (e.g., geolocation and ancillary data) and SMAP-specific instrument characteristics (e.g., orbit sampling and antenna pattern). The results will provide valuable prelaunch guidance to the SMAP team in identifying different error sources and their relative impacts on the passive soil moisture data product.

Chan, Steven↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Application of Remote Sensing using NASA Earth Observations paired with Sociodemographic Indicators to Identify Communities Most Susceptible to Urban Heat Exposure in Austin, Texas

In recent years, Austin, Texas has experienced an increase in population and urban development. Additionally, the City’s climate—already characterized by periods of extreme heat and drought—continues to change. As temperatures and demand for utilities and cooling resources rise, the number of heat-related deaths and illnesses in socially vulnerable populations (e.g., older, lower-income populations) is expected to increase. The City of Austin, The University of Texas at Austin (UT Austin), and The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UT Health) partnered with NASA DEVELOP to examine the distribution of urban heat throughout the City. This project used land surface temperature, greenness, plant water content, and urban surface material analysis parameters derived from NASA Earth observations from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The project team produced three different indices to create a spatial analysis for the study area including a social vulnerability index (SoVI), heat exposure index (HEI), and an overall heat priority index (HPI) score. This overall score was determined with a weighted analysis of heat-related environmental variables from NASA Earth observations and socioeconomic data from the 2019 American Community Survey. Based on the HPI score, the project team identified 121 census block groups out of 605 total that are designated as being most at risk of adverse impacts from extreme heat events. To test the sensitivity of the HPI, the team used a Monte Carlo analysis using different approaches for geographic scale, variable inclusion, census uncertainty, and index aggregation. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the resulting HPI score showed the metric was consistent with the baseline HPI. This provided increased confidence the score can be used as a tool to make informed infrastructure improvement plans in targeted areas (e.g., siting of cooling centers) and ensure equitable sustainable development.

Ryan Hammock↗

NASA NTRS2011

On Time Delay Margin Estimation for Adaptive Control and Optimal Control Modification

This paper presents methods for estimating time delay margin for adaptive control of input delay systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent an adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window. The time delay margin of this input delay system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by three methods: Pade approximation, Lyapunov-Krasovskii method, and the matrix measure method. These methods are applied to the standard model-reference adaptive control, s-modification adaptive law, and optimal control modification adaptive law. The windowing analysis results in non-unique estimates of the time delay margin since it is dependent on the length of a time window and parameters which vary from one time window to the next. The optimal control modification adaptive law overcomes this limitation in that, as the adaptive gain tends to infinity and if the matched uncertainty is linear, then the closed-loop input delay system tends to a LTI system. A lower bound of the time delay margin of this system can then be estimated uniquely without the need for the windowing analysis. Simulation results demonstrates the feasibility of the bounded linear stability method for time delay margin estimation.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Propagation of experimental uncertainties from the tunnel to the body coordinate system in 3-D LDV flow field studies

An analysis of experimental laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) data uncertainties that propagate from measurements in the tunnel coordinate system to results in the model system are provided. Calculations of uncertainties as functions of the variables that comprise the final result requires assessment of the contribution each variable makes. Such an analysis enables and necessitates the experimentalists to identify and address the contributing error sources in the experimental measurement system. This provides an opportunity to improve the quality of data derived from experimental systems. This is especially important in experiments where small changes in test conditions are expected to produce small, detectable changes in results. In addition, the need for high-quality experimental data for CFD method validation demands a thorough assessment of experimental uncertainty. Transforming from one Cartesian coordinate system to another by three sequential rotations, equations were developed to transform the variables initially obtained in the original coordinates into variables in the final coordinate system. Based on the transformation equations, propagation equations for errors in the experimentally-derived flow quantities were derived for a model at angle of attack. Experimental uncertainties were then propagated from the tunnel coordinate system into the model system.

Neuhart, Dan H.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Vhf/uhf stellar calibration error analysis.

Results of a statistical error analysis performed to determine the degree of uncertainty encountered when calibrating steerable vhf/uhf receiving antennas with the stellar calibration method. The analysis considers the propagation of precision error indices. It is shown that an antenna gain calibration by the stellar method has a one-sigma (1 sigma) uncertainty of plus or minus 0.65 dB at 1440 MHz (L-band), and plus or minus 0.8 dB (1 sigma) at 136 MHz (vhf). Somewhat increased precision can be achieved by monitoring the antenna gain-to-noise temperature ratio at a station; a worst-case uncertainty of plus or minus 0.4 dB (1 sigma) can be realized at both L-band and vhf. Finally, field test measurements of antenna gain, obtained at 136 MHz in the NASA space tracking and data acquisition network, demonstrate an uncertainty of plus or minus 1.0 dB or less, which effectively confirms the analytical result.

Taylor, R. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Estimates for Fitting Zernike Polynomials to Discrete Data

Zernike polynomials are a widely used metric in modern optical analysis. They conveniently represent surfaces as a series of weighted terms corresponding to various optical aberrations. Ideally, each term is independent of others in the series, but Zernike polynomials lose this property when working with sets of discrete data. This gives rise to uncertainty in each polynomial’s actual contribution and affects metrology and simulation estimates of their relative weights. Several factors influencing these estimates are the number and arrangement of sample locations, the method for calculating the weights, and the total number of Zernike terms used in the calculation. Discussed is the uncertainty associated with linear regression using random sampling. Other topics reviewed are complex Zernike polynomials and vector spaces of functions.

Zernike Polynomials↗

NASA NTRS2001

Probabilistic Structural Analysis and Reliability Using NESSUS With Implemented Material Strength Degradation Model

This project included both research and education objectives. The goal of this project was to advance innovative research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction for improved reliability and safety of structural components of aerospace and aircraft propulsion systems. Research and education partners included Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) along with the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). SwRI enhanced the NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) code and provided consulting support for NESSUS-related activities at UTSA. NASA funding supported three undergraduate students, two graduate students, a summer course instructor and the Principal Investigator. Matching funds from UTSA provided for the purchase of additional equipment for the enhancement of the Advanced Interactive Computational SGI Lab established during the first year of this Partnership Award to conduct the probabilistic finite element summer courses. The research portion of this report presents the cumulation of work performed through the use of the probabilistic finite element program, NESSUS, Numerical Evaluation and Structures Under Stress, and an embedded Material Strength Degradation (MSD) model. Probabilistic structural analysis provided for quantification of uncertainties associated with the design, thus enabling increased system performance and reliability. The structure examined was a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) fuel turbopump blade. The blade material analyzed was Inconel 718, since the MSD model was previously calibrated for this material. Reliability analysis encompassing the effects of high temperature and high cycle fatigue, yielded a reliability value of 0.99978 using a fully correlated random field for the blade thickness. The reliability did not change significantly for a change in distribution type except for a change in distribution from Gaussian to Weibull for the centrifugal load. The sensitivity factors determined to be most dominant were the centrifugal loading and the initial strength of the material. These two sensitivity factors were influenced most by a change in distribution type from Gaussian to Weibull. The education portion of this report describes short-term and long-term educational objectives. Such objectives serve to integrate research and education components of this project resulting in opportunities for ethnic minority students, principally Hispanic. The primary vehicle to facilitate such integration was the teaching of two probabilistic finite element method courses to undergraduate engineering students in the summers of 1998 and 1999.

Bast, Callie C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Multifidelity Uncertainty Quantification of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

The objective of this work was to develop a multifidelity uncertainty quantification approach for efficient analysis of a commercial supersonic transport. An approach based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos was formulated in which a low-fidelity model could be corrected by any number of high-fidelity models. The formulation and methodology also allows for the addition of uncertainty sources not present in the lower fidelity models. To demonstrate the applicability of the multifidelity polynomial chaos approach, two model problems were explored. The first was supersonic airfoil with three levels of modeling fidelity, each capturing an additional level of physics. The second problem was a commercial supersonic transport. This model had three levels of fidelity that included two different modeling approaches and the addition of physics between the fidelity levels. Both problems illustrate the applicability and significant computational savings of the multifidelity polynomial chaos method.

West, Thomas K., IV↗

NASA NTRS1993

A comparative study of multivariable robustness analysis methods as applied to integrated flight and propulsion control

Three multivariable robustness analysis methods are compared and contrasted. The focus of the analysis is on system stability and performance robustness to uncertainty in the coupling dynamics between two interacting subsystems. Of particular interest is interacting airframe and engine subsystems, and an example airframe/engine vehicle configuration is utilized in the demonstration of these approaches. The singular value (SV) and structured singular value (SSV) analysis methods are compared to a method especially well suited for analysis of robustness to uncertainties in subsystem interactions. This approach is referred to here as the interacting subsystem (IS) analysis method. This method has been used previously to analyze airframe/engine systems, emphasizing the study of stability robustness. However, performance robustness is also investigated here, and a new measure of allowable uncertainty for acceptable performance robustness is introduced. The IS methodology does not require plant uncertainty models to measure the robustness of the system, and is shown to yield valuable information regarding the effects of subsystem interactions. In contrast, the SV and SSV methods allow for the evaluation of the robustness of the system to particular models of uncertainty, and do not directly indicate how the airframe (engine) subsystem interacts with the engine (airframe) subsystem.

Schierman, John D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Analysis of the Human Research Program’s Impact 1.0 Model

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Leave One Out (LOO) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on non-linear simulation models like the IMPACT Model. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The “partial” part is due to the adjustments made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. LOO removes a medical condition from test suite and calculates the change in the outcome. This is used to identify the influence of the condition input in the model The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number of occurrences of each of the one hundred plus IMPACT medical conditions generated over the simulations, and the IMPACT outputs from the MEDPRAT mathematical model. The outputs total task time lost (TTL), number of return to definitive care (RTDC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMPACT team will report the results of using PRCC and LOO on IMPACT 1.0. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty, and input values could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMPACT 1.0.

Sensitivity Anaylsis↗

NASA NTRS2001

Assessment of the Contribution of the Atmosphere to Uncertainties in Normalized Water-Leaving Radiance: A Combined Modeling and Data Analysis Approach

Our research for the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) program has been focused on modeling and simulation studies as well as the development of atmospheric correction algorithms. Based on our original proposal and discussions at the SIMBIOS team meetings and workshops, the objectives of our research can be summarized as follows: (1) Use our radiative transfer model for the coupled atmosphere-ocean system to simulate the radiation field at arbitrary levels and in any desired direction in the atmosphere and ocean so as to provide a firm connection between the signal received by the satellite sensor and by a sensor looking down into the water column just above the surface and just below it; (2) Use the simulations to quantify the influence of atmospheric aerosols on the water-leaving radiance, and to quantify the error in the water-leaving radiance as a function of uncertainties in the aerosol optical properties, mass loading and vertical extent; (3) Use the model simulations in conjunction with validation measurements taken by other SIMBIOS investigators (for satellite overpasses) to assess our understanding of the radiative transfer process in the coupled atmosphere-ocean column, and to examine the extent to which the model provides a realistic prediction of simultaneously measured in situ water-leaving radiance and the radiance received by the satellite sensor; (4) Modify and improve an existing atmospheric correction algorithm, based on the work above, as needed by constructing new look-up tables that include scattering by ocean particles; and (5) Carry out approaches to developing an atmospheric correction algorithm for ocean color imagery with strongly absorbing aerosols.

Stamnes, Knut↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in thermal structures

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFT) blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME); (2) the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (3) evaluation of the failure probability; (4) reliability and risk-cost assessment, and (5) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual hot structures certification. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of hot structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic framework. In addition, the approach can be readily extended to computationally simulate certification of hot structures for aerospace environments.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in thermal structures

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot structures is a major activity at NASA-Lewis, and consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads, (2) probabilistic finite element analysis, (3) probabilistic material behavior, (4) assessment of reliability and risk, and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Attention is given to quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on High Pressure Fuel Turbopump blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the Space Shuttle Main Engine; the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; evaluation of the failure probability; reliability and risk-cost assessment; and an outline of an emerging approach for eventual hot structures certification. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of hot structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic framework. In addition, the approach can be readily extended to computationally simulate certification of hot structures for aerospace environments.

Chamis, C. C.↗