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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1988

Diagnosing faults in autonomous robot plan execution

A major requirement for an autonomous robot is the capability to diagnose faults during plan execution in an uncertain environment. Many diagnostic researches concentrate only on hardware failures within an autonomous robot. Taking a different approach, the implementation of a Telerobot Diagnostic System that addresses, in addition to the hardware failures, failures caused by unexpected event changes in the environment or failures due to plan errors, is described. One feature of the system is the utilization of task-plan knowledge and context information to deduce fault symptoms. This forward deduction provides valuable information on past activities and the current expectations of a robotic event, both of which can guide the plan-execution inference process. The inference process adopts a model-based technique to recreate the plan-execution process and to confirm fault-source hypotheses. This technique allows the system to diagnose multiple faults due to either unexpected plan failures or hardware errors. This research initiates a major effort to investigate relationships between hardware faults and plan errors, relationships which were not addressed in the past. The results of this research will provide a clear understanding of how to generate a better task planner for an autonomous robot and how to recover the robot from faults in a critical environment.

Lam, Raymond K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Diagnosing faults in autonomous robot plan execution

Lam, Raymond K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Salty Bennu: Halite and Sylvite in Fines Returned by OSIRIS-REx

Salt phases such as halite (NaCl) and sylvite (KCl) are important hosts of halogens (e.g., Br and I) and volatile alkali metals (i.e., Na, K) and are very rare in extra-terrestrial materials. Halite and sylvite have been discovered in carbonaceous chondrite clasts in ordinary chondrite meteorite falls Zag H3-6 regolith breccia (Zag), Monahans (1998) breccia (Monahans), and Sidi El Habib H5 chondrite, as well as on the surface of particles from asteroid Itokawa. Yet, it is uncertain whether the evaporites are indigenous or exogenous to their respective parent bodies, and their origin is debated. Analysis of the extinct 129I/129Xe decay system and 40Ar/39Ar show that halite in Zag may have formed within the first 8 Myr of the solar system, possibly from aqueous fluids during local and episodic low-temperature alteration on the parent body. Halite and sylvite in Zag are characterized by light δ37Cl values of −1.7 ‰. Halite in Zag could have been transported from the outer solar system, perhaps a P- or D-class asteroid, as indicated by O, H, N, and C isotopes. An alternative is a cometary or interstellar ice origin due to their deuterium-rich and 16O-poor composition.

N E Timms↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Verification and Validation of Safety-Critical Aircraft Systems Operating under Off-Nominal, Contingency, and Emergency Conditions

Verification and validation (V&V) of safety-critical technologies developed for loss of control (LOC) prevention and recovery and other aviation safety concerns pose significant challenges. Aircraft LOC can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination, which cannot be fully replicated during evaluation. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of hazardous and uncertain conditions, and the verification and validation of these technologies must provide some measure of assurance that the new vehicle safety technologies do no harm (i.e., that they themselves do not introduce new safety risks). V&V technologies must also enable the identification of system limitations and constraints, as well as enable the identification of safe and unsafe operating conditions (and their boundaries). Additionally, the V&V of complex, increasingly autonomous systems is a fundamental concern. Scalable, reproducible and cost-effective techniques for the assurance of safety critical systems during their design and operation is a key barrier to fielding new systems or updating current systems. Moreover, these techniques need to provide artifacts that enable a comprehensive evidence-based approach to certification. This briefing summarizes research performed under NASA’s Aviation Safety Program and follow-on research for the V&V of safety-critical aircraft system technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery and increasingly autonomous systems, and for a broad assurance capability in both current and emerging aviation applications. Note that, in this briefing, the term “validation” refers to a confirmation that the system implementation (e.g., algorithms etc.) is performing the intended function(s), as well as an affirmation of effectiveness in these functions. “Verification” refers to a confirmation that the system implementation in the software and hardware meets its (hopefully validated) specifications (e.g., correctly executes algorithms as designed).

Validation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a nuclear thermal propulsion reactor startup sequence

The research presented in this article describes progress in applying stochastic methods, uncertainty quantification, parametric studies, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated via the radiation transport code Griffin to simulate neutronics. Our goal is to develop a reduced-order (surrogate) model that can be rapidly sampled with perturbations to multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums (CDs), which is itself controlled by a hybrid proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time [Λ] and effective delayed neutron fraction [ β eff ] from a transient Griffin simulation executed via Griffin’s improved quasi-static solver to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions that control the CD rotation angle. By investigating numerous stochastic approaches, we developed a dual-purpose surrogate model of the NTP system, using polynomial regression in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM). The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters, such as coefficients on the PID control or temperature (directly affecting the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate (within 5%) results at speeds orders of magnitude faster (minutes, not days of computational time) than the base model. Once the surrogate model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs as well as the effects of these inputs on the model output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some type of physical interference, or uncertainty may exist in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters, and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system for operating CDs in a functioning NTP system. This work is a scoping study of the MOOSE STM.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Real-Time Satellite-Based Icing Detection System

Aircraft icing is one of the most dangerous weather conditions for general aviation. Currently, model forecasts and pilot reports (PIREPS) constitute much of the database available to pilots for assessing the icing conditions in a particular area. Such data are often uncertain or sparsely available. Improvements in the temporal and areal coverage of icing diagnoses and prognoses would mark a substantial enhancement of aircraft safety in regions susceptible to heavy supercooled liquid water clouds. The use of 3.9 microns data from meteorological satellite imagers for diagnosing icing conditions has long been recognized (e.g., Ellrod and Nelson, 1996) but to date, no explicit physically based methods have been implemented. Recent advances in cloud detection and cloud property retrievals using operational satellite imagery open the door for real-time objective applications of those satellite datasets for a variety of weather phenomena. Because aircraft icing is related to cloud macro- and microphysical properties (e.g., Cober et al. 1995), it is logical that the cloud properties from satellite data would be useful for diagnosing icing conditions. This paper describes the a prototype realtime system for detecting aircraft icing from space.

Minnis, Patrick↗

NASA NTRS2004

How Systems Engineering and Risk Management Defend Against Murphy's Law and Human Error

Systems Engineering and Risk Management processes can work synergistically to defend against the causes of many mission ending failures. Defending against mission ending failures is facilitated by fostering a team that has a healthy respect for Murphy's Law and a team with a of curiosity for how things work, how they can fail, and what they need to know. This curiosity is channeled into making the unknowns known or what is uncertain more certain. Efforts to assure mission success require the expenditure of energy in the following areas: 1. Understanding what defines Mission Success as guided by the customer's needs, objectives and constraints. 2. Understanding how the system is supposed to work and how the system is to be produced, fueled by the curiosity of how the system should work and how it should be produced. 3. Understanding how the system can fail and how the system might not be produced on time and within cost, fueled by the curiosity of how the system might fail and how production might be difficult. 4. Understanding what we need to know and what we need learn for proper completion of the above three items, fueled by the curiosity of what we might not know in order to make the best decisions.

Bay, Michael↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Visioning a Global Carbon Monitoring System That Can Quantify and Attribute Ocean Carbon Dioxide Removal: Where Are We Now and How Might We Get There?

As atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the resulting social costs rise, it is increasingly important to conduct research on technical approaches to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at the gigaton scale. One highly uncertain but perhaps plausible solution is ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which encompasses a suite of proposed techniques for increasing the net flux of CO2 from the atmosphere to the ocean. As reflected in a 2022 National Academy of Sciences report, interest in ocean CDR is rapidly growing, and new stakeholders from a wide range of fields want access to air-sea CO2 flux and ocean carbon information to understand the potential risks and benefits of ocean CDR. Moreover, there is an urgent need for research to develop a scientific basis to support these societal needs. At the same time, there is a growing need to vision a global carbon monitoring system that can quantify natural and anthropogenic perturbations in the air-sea CO2 flux to quantify and attribute the impacts of ocean CDR efforts on the ocean carbon sink. Here, we propose to present nascent efforts at the Ames Research Center to leverage NASA's unique remote sensing and computational capabilities and expertise in basic and applied Earth science to meet the needs of the ocean CDR stakeholder community as represented by the OceanVisions network. Specifically we aim to develop a global ocean CDR scenario explorer with two objectives: 1) to make quantitative estimates of the air-sea CO2 flux and its uncertainty more accessible to a wide range of users, and 2) to enable these diverse users to interactively explore the uncertain impacts on air-sea CO2 fluxes in a wide range of ocean CDR scenarios. The information would be provided to users via a public graphical user interface, and the results would be based on a new synthesis of scientific observations and knowledge in a global ocean mixed layer inverse model run on supercomputers. The proposed tool aims to fill a unique and valuable niche for users and the scientific community by balancing tradeoffs between user interests, scientific knowledge, and technical capabilities. We will conclude by visioning the potential implications for a global carbon monitoring system in a world with gigaton scale ocean CDR.

Global↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physical Insights From the Multidecadal Prediction of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variability Using Explainable Neural Networks

Abstract North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (NASST), particularly in the subpolar region, are among the most predictable in the world's oceans. However, the relative importance of atmospheric and oceanic controls on their variability at multidecadal timescales remain uncertain. Neural networks (NNs) are trained to examine the relative importance of oceanic and atmospheric predictors in predicting the NASST state in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1). In the presence of external forcings, oceanic predictors outperform atmospheric predictors, persistence, and random chance baselines out to 25‐year leadtimes. Layer‐wise relevance propagation is used to unveil the sources of predictability, and reveal that NNs consistently rely upon the Gulf Stream‐North Atlantic Current region for accurate predictions. Additionally, CESM1‐trained NNs successfully predict the phasing of multidecadal variability in an observational data set, suggesting consistency in physical processes driving NASST variability between CESM1 and observations.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributionally Robust Decentralized Volt-Var Control With Network Reconfiguration

Here, this paper presents a decentralized volt-var optimization (VVO) and network reconfiguration strategy to address the challenges arising from the growing integration of distributed energy resources, particularly photovoltaic (PV) generation units, in active distribution networks. To reconcile control measures with different time resolutions and empower local control centers to handle intermittency locally, the proposed approach leverages a two-stage distributionally robust optimization; decisions on slow-responding control measures and set points that link neighboring subnetworks are made in advance while considering all plausible distributions of uncertain PV outputs. We present a decomposition algorithm with an acceleration scheme for solving the proposed model. Numerical experiments on the IEEE 123 bus distribution system are given to demonstrate its outstanding out-of-sample performance and computational efficiency, which suggests that the proposed method can effectively localize uncertainty via risk-informed proactive timely decisions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Galileo Probe: How it Has Changed Our Understanding of Jupiter

The Galileo Mission to Jupiter, which arrived in December of 1995, provided the first study by an orbiter, and the first in-situ sampling via an entry probe, of an outer planet atmosphere. The rationale for an entry probe is that, even from an orbiter, remote sensing of the jovian atmosphere could not adequately retrieve the information desired. This paper provides a current summary of the most significant aspects of the data returned from the Galileo entry probe. As a result of the probe measurements, there has been a reassessment of our understanding of outer planet formation and evolution of the solar system. The primary scientific objective of the Galileo probe was to determine the composition of the jovian atmosphere, which from remote sensing remained either very uncertain, or completely unknown, with respect to several key elements. The probe found that the global He mass fraction is. significantly above the value reported from the Voyager Jupiter flybys but is slightly below the protosolar value, implying that there has been some settling of He to the deep jovian interior. The probe He measurements have also led to a reevaluation of the Voyager He mass fraction for Saturn, which is now determined to be much closer to that of Jupiter. The elements C, N, S, Ar, Kr, Xe were all found to have global abundances approximately 3 times their respective solar abundances. This result has raised a number of fundamental issues with regard to properties of planetesimals and the solar nebula at the time of giant planet formation. Ne, on the other hand, was found to be highly depleted, probably as the result of it being carried along with helium as helium settles towards the deep interior. The global abundance of O was not obtained by the probe because of the influence of local processes at the probe entry site (PES), processes which depleted condensible species, in this case H2O, well below condensation levels. Other condensible species, namely NH3 and H2S, were similarly affected but attained their deep equilibrium mixing ratios before the maximum depth sampled by the probe. Processes that might be capable of producing such effects on the condensibles are still under investigation. Measured isotopic ratios of noble gases and other heavy elements are solar, and (D + (Sup 3)He)/H is the same to within measurement uncertainties as in the local interstellar medium. No thick clouds were detected, and in particular no significant water cloud, but the PES location clearly affected the probe measurements of clouds. In fact, the probe data must be understood in the context of the location of the PES, which was within what is termed a 5 micron hot spot, a local clearing in the clouds that is bright near the 5 microns spectral region. The thermal structure at the PES was determined from approximately 1000 km above the 1 bar pressure level (10(exp -9 bars)) to 132 km 1 bar (22bars). The probe showed the atmosphere to have a generally sub-adiabatic temperature gradient (static stability) of = 0.1 K/km to as deep as the probe made measurements. In the upper atmosphere the probe derived a maximum positive vertical temperature gradient of approximately 5 K/km, and maximum temperature of = 900 K. The energy sources producing the warm upper atmosphere have yet to be completely identified. At first glance, Doppler tracking of the probe indicates that the long observed cloud level zonal winds extend to levels at least as deep as the probe made measurements. Zonal wind increases from = 80 m/s at pressures less than a bar to about 180 m/s near 5 bars, and remains approximately constant with depth thereafter. However, there is a question as to whether the winds measured from probe tracking are representative of the general wind field, or are considerably influenced by localized winds associated with the PES.

Young, Richard E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A quantitative risk model for early lifecycle decision making

Decisions made in the earliest phases of system development have the most leverage to influence the success of the entire development effort, and yet must be made when information is incomplete and uncertain. We have developed a scalable cost-benefit model to support this critical phase of early-lifecycle decision-making.

requirements optimization summarization tradeoffs↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ag isotopic and chalcophile element evolution of the terrestrial and martian mantles during accretion: new constraints from Bi, Pd, and Ag metal-silicate partitioning.

The Earth’s timing of accretion and acquisition of moderately volatile compounds is uncertain. Hafnium-W and Mn-Cr isotopic data can bracket the timing of early planetary differentiation and core formation. The Ag-Pd system has also been utilized but its application has been limited by a lack of high pressure and temperature metal-silicate partitioning for Pd and Ag. Be-cause Ag (and Bi) are volatile chalcophile siderophile elements, understanding their early distribution can constrain the origin of volatile elements in differentiated bodies and planets. Unfortunately, neither Ag or Bi have been studied across the wide range of pressure and temperature conditions that are relevant to accretion and core-mantle differentiation. Here, new high-pressure and temperature multi-anvil metal-silicate equilibrium experiments for Bi and Ag have been carried out at conditions relevant to planetary accretion and metal silicate differentiation that allow a more refined and complete understanding of element partitioning during core formation. The new metal-silicate partitioning data utilized to predict the distributions of Bi, Pd, and Ag at conditions of accretion for Earth and Mars and show that the Pd/Ag ratio is significantly fractionated during accretion, allowing for the production of detectable 107Ag anomalies produced while 107Pd (half life = 6.5 M.y.) was still extant. Application of the new partitioning results to Earth shows that D(Bi) and D(Ag) (D = metal/silicate concentration ratio) are lowered due to the effect of pressure and Si alloyed in the metallic liquid, resulting in higher predicted mantle Bi and Ag abundances than in the bulk silicate Earth (BSE), as well as high and variable Pd/Ag. The unradiogenic Ag isotopic composition of the BSE could have been generated by early accretion of volatile-poor (high Pd/Ag) precursors, followed by later accretion of volatile–rich (low Pd/Ag) material, in agreement with earlier studies of Pd-Ag and Mn-Cr (Schönbächler et al., 2010). However, these main accretion phases would have to be followed by segregation of a sulfide liquid (at least 1.5% of magma ocean) at high pressures (>30 GPa), to explain the PUM Bi, Pd, and Ag, as well as Au, Pt, Cu and Ni concentrations as proposed previously. If the early accreted bulk Earth was volatile depleted with high Pd/Ag ratios, portions of the mantle may contain ancient domains that developed positive 107Ag isotopic anomalies (as also argued by noble gases, Nd, W, and Os isotopes). In comparison, Bi, Pd, and Ag concentrations in the martian mantle could have been set by simple metal-silicate equilibrium. Mars accreted and differentiated relatively rapidly, while also developing a deep magma ocean with a high Pd/Ag ratio that could have evolved positive 107Ag anomalies, in contrast to Earth. Measurements on shergottites may reveal these predicted Ag isotopic anomalies.

accretion↗

NASA NTRS2022

GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The basal thermal state (frozen or thawed) of the Greenland Ice Sheet is under-constrained due to few direct measurements, yet knowledge of this state is becoming increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow. The first synthesis of this state relied on inferences from widespread airborne and satellite observations and numerical models, for which most of the underlying datasets have since been updated. Further, new and independent constraints on the basal thermal state have been developed from analysis of basal and englacial reflections observed by airborne radar sounding. Here we synthesize constraints on the Greenland Ice Sheet's basal thermal state from boreholes, thermomechanical ice-flow models that participated in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), IceBridge BedMachine Greenland v4 bed topography, Making Earth Science Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Multi-Year Greenland Ice Sheet Velocity Mosaic v1 and multiple inferences of a thawed bed from airborne radar sounding. Most constraints can only identify where the bed is likely thawed rather than where it is frozen. This revised synthesis of the Greenland likely Basal Thermal State version 2 (GBaTSv2) indicates that 33 % of the ice sheet's bed is likely thawed, 40 % is likely frozen and the remainder (28 %) is too uncertain to specify. The spatial pattern of GBaTSv2 is broadly similar to the previous synthesis, including a scalloped frozen core and thawed outlet-glacier systems. Although the likely basal thermal state of nearly half (46 %) of the ice sheet changed designation, the assigned state changed from likely frozen to likely thawed (or vice versa) for less than 6 % of the ice sheet. This revised synthesis suggests that more of northern Greenland is likely thawed at its bed and conversely that more of southern Greenland is likely frozen, both of which influence interpretation of the ice sheet's present subglacial hydrology and models of its future evolution. The GBaTSv2 dataset, including both code that performed the analysis and the resulting datasets, is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6759384 (MacGregor, 2022).

Joseph A. MacGregor↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact Study of the Assimilation of Surface Sensitive Microwave Radiances in the GEOS

The aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility of assimilating low frequency microwave observations from different satellite Microwave radiometers such as the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A). These observations are relevant to the description of air temperature, humidity, and surface parameters such as ocean surface temperature. Their assimilation into Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling and assimilation system helps better constrain models in regions where very few observations are assimilated. In recent years, Channels 1â€“4 and 15 have not been assimilated in GEOS because of their large sensitivities to uncertain surface parameters such as emissivity and skin temperature. Here, the impact of using different channels will be discussed. Also we investigate the validity of the emissivity model in these channels over ocean and sea ice.Radiative transfer calculations necessary for the assimilation of satellite radiances are performed using the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM). The CRTM performs forward radiative transfer calculations of brightness temperature from atmospheric profiles (temperature, moisture, and ozone) and surface characteristics. Additionally, the CRTM calculates the Jacobians of brightness temperature with respect to the input . The Jacobians are for the inversion of these radiances within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system. Here, For direct assimilation of the radiance observations, the interface between GSI and CRTM, is slightly modified. Finally, we validate the assimilation results, and discuss the impact of each channels in detail.

Ebrahimi, Hamideh↗

DOE OSTI2025

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

Decision-support method↗

NASA NTRS2014

Improving FermiI Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecrafts ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45 improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

orbit prediction↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗