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Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗

Deep near-infrared survey of the Southern Sky (DENIS)

DENIS (Deep Near-Infrared Survey of the Southern Sky) will be the first complete census of astronomical sources in the near-infrared spectral range. The challenges of this novel survey are both scientific and technical. Phenomena radiating in the near-infrared range from brown dwarfs to galaxies in the early stages of cosmological evolution, the scientific exploitation of data relevant over such a wide range requires pooling expertise from several of the leading European astronomical centers. The technical challenges of a project which will provide an order of magnitude more sources than given by the IRAS space mission, and which will involve advanced data-handling and image-processing techniques, likewise require pooling of hardware and software resources, as well as of human expertise. The DENIS project team is composed of some 40 scientists, computer specialists, and engineers located in 5 European Community countries (France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, and Spain), with important contributions from specialists in Australia, Brazil, Chile, and Hungary. DENIS will survey the entire southern sky in 3 colors, namely in the I band at a wavelength of 0.8 micron, in the 1.25 micron J band, and in the 2.15 micron K' band. The sensitivity limits will be 18th magnitude in the I band, 16th in the J band, and 14.5th in the K' band. The angular resolution achieved will be 1 arcsecond in the I band, and 3.0 arcseconds in the J and K' bands. The European Southern Observatory 1 m telescope on La Silla will be dedicated to survey use during operations expected to last four years, commencing in late 1993. DENIS aims to provide the astronomical community with complete digitized infrared images of the full southern sky and a catalogue of extracted objects, both of the best quality and in readily accessible form. This will be achieved through dedicated software packages and specialized catalogues, and with assistance from the Leiden and Paris Data Analysis Centers. The data will be mailed on DAT tapes from La Silla to the two Data Analysis Centers for further processing. Two centers are necessary because of the shear quantity of data and because of the complementary roles the Centers will develop, each exploiting its own particular expertise. The Leiden Data Analysis Center (LDAC) will extract objects, establish their parameters, and archive them into a source catalogue. The LDAC will collaborate with the Groningen Space Research group that has gained experience in infrared image handling from the IRAS satellite. The Paris Data Analysis Center (PDAC) will be responsible for archiving and preprocessing the raw data to provide a homogeneous set of data suitable for further reduction in both the Leiden and Paris data analysis streams. The PDAC will also extract and archive images for the sources flagged by the LDAC as extended, and create a catalogue of galaxies. In exploiting the DENIS data we foresee the collaboration with other data analysis centers, such as the Observatoire de Lyon where the relevant DENIS catalogue of galaxies can be incorporated into their extragalactic database. The Point Sources and the Small Extended Sources catalogues could be incorporated in the Late Type Star database at Montpellier, and in the SIMBAD database as CDS. At Groningen the IRAS Point Source catalogue and/or image data can be merged with the DENIS catalogues. At Meudon algorithms and software will be developed with main goal assessing the limits reachable for the homogeneity and intrinsic consistency between the ensemble of the images in the data base (flat-fielding, relative positioning of the fields, bootstrapped flux calibration) but also for the data analysis.

Deul, E.↗

An empirical determination of the polytropic index for the free-streaming solar wind using Helios 1 data

Observations of solar wind proton temperatures indicate that the solar wind is heated as it moves outward toward the orbit of Earth. This heating, which may be the results of electron heat conduction and perhaps MHD waves, has proven difficult to quantify and hence is often neglected in MHD models of the solar wind. An alternate approach to finding explicit heating terms for the MHD energy equation is to use a polytropic approximation. This paper discusses the properties of the polytropic approximation and its application to the solar wind plasma. By using data from the Helios 1 spacecraft, an empirical value for the polytropic index of the free-streaming solar wind is determined. Various corrections to the data are made to account for velocity, nonuniformity in radial sampling, and stream interaction regions. The polytropic index, as derived from proton data, is found to indepedent of speed state, within statistical error, and has an average value of 1.46. If magnetic pressure is included, the polytropic index has an average value of 1.58.

Totten, T. L.↗

Coding for Efficient Image Transmission

NASA publication second in series on data-coding techniques for noiseless channels. Techniques used even in noisy channels, provided data further processed with Reed-Solomon or other error-correcting code. Techniques discussed in context of transmission of monochrome imagery from Voyager II spacecraft but applicable to other streams of data. Objective of this type coding to "compress" data; that is, to transmit using as few bits as possible by omitting as much as possible of portion of information repeated in subsequent samples (or picture elements).

Rice, R. F.↗

Infrared Imaging System for Studying Brain Function

A proposed special-purpose infrared imaging system would be a compact, portable, less-expensive alternative to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) systems heretofore used to study brain function. Whereas a typical fMRI system fills a large room, and must be magnetically isolated, this system would fit into a bicycle helmet. The system would include an assembly that would be mounted inside the padding in a modified bicycle helmet or other suitable headgear. The assembly would include newly designed infrared photodetectors and data-acquisition circuits on integrated-circuit chips on low-thermal-conductivity supports in evacuated housings (see figure) arranged in multiple rows and columns that would define image coordinates. Each housing would be spring-loaded against the wearer s head. The chips would be cooled by a small Stirling Engine mounted contiguous to, but thermally isolated from, the portions of the assembly in thermal contact with the wearer s head. Flexible wires or cables for transmitting data from the aforementioned chips would be routed to an integrated, multichannel transmitter and thence through the top of the assembly to a patch antenna on the outside of the helmet. The multiple streams of data from the infrared-detector chips would be sent to a remote site, where they would be processed, by software, into a three-dimensional display of evoked potentials that would represent firing neuronal bundles and thereby indicate locations of neuronal activity associated with mental or physical activity. The 3D images will be analogous to current fMRI images. The data would also be made available, in real-time, for comparison with data in local or internationally accessible relational databases that already exist in universities and research centers. Hence, this system could be used in research on, and for the diagnosis of response from the wearer s brain to physiological, psychological, and environmental changes in real time. The images would also be stored in a relational database for comparison with corresponding responses previously observed in other subjects.

Mintz, Frederick↗

LITE data processing

The Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE) was a payload onboard the Space Shuttle Discovery as part of the September 1994 STS-64 mission. LITE successfully made both atmospheric and surface measurements at the 355 nm, 532 nm, and 1064 nm wavelengths [Winker et al., 1996]. At mission completion, nearly 45 Gbytes of data had been obtained. As the data were collected they were organized into three data sets. The largest of these data sets contained the single-shot full resolution digitized lidar signals for all three wavelengths. The other two data sets contained the instrument status data block (ISDB) and the quick look science data (QLSD). ISDB information was generated once per second and contained timing parameters and engineering data related to the health, status, and configuration of the instrument. The QLSD are 100shot averages of the 355 nm and 532 nm lidar signals and were generated at ten second intervals. As the LITE data were generated, they were output to low-rate and high-rate telemetry streams. The low-rate data contained the ISDB and QLSD. The lowrate data were transmitted to the ground by the Shuttle S-band system through the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The high-rate data contained the full resolution digitized lidar signals for all three wavelengths, the ISDB, and QLSD. The high-rate data were transmitted in real time by the Ku-band system through TDRSS downlink to the LITE operations center at the Johnson Space Center (JSC). High-rate data were only obtained when the orbiter and TDRSS telemetry link coincided with the real-time operations of LITE. The low-rate data were backed up by a Shuttle recorder during periods when the telemetry link was unavailable, and the entire lowrate data stream was transferred to the ground over the course of the mission. A total of 53 hours of lowrate data and 45.5 hours of high-rate data were acquired. All of the LITE raw telemetry data have been archived at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), and the LITE high-rate data have been processed to the level 1 data product. This paper describes the data processing steps required to convert the LITE raw, high-rate telemetry data to the LITE level 1 data product.

Powell, Kathleen A.↗

Snow Cover, Snowmelt Timing and Stream Power in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

Earlier onset of springtime weather, including earlier snowmelt, has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (is greater than 70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack (and shrinking glaciers) has important implications for the management of streamflow. The amount of water in a snowpack influences stream discharge which can also influence erosion and sediment transport by changing stream power, or the rate at which a stream can do work, such as move sediment and erode the stream bed. The focus of this work is the Wind River Range (WRR) in west-central Wyoming. Ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover, cloud-gap-filled (CGF) map products and 30 years of discharge and meteorological station data are studied. Streamflow data from streams in WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades, though no trend of either lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed within the decade of the 2000s. Results show a statistically-significant trend at the 95% confidence level (or higher) of increasing weekly maximum air temperature (for three out of the five meteorological stations studied) in the decade of the 1970s, and also for the 40-year study period as a whole. The extent of snow-cover (percent of basin covered) derived from the lowest elevation zone (2500-3000 m) of the WRR, using MODIS CGF snow-cover maps, is strongly correlated with maximum monthly discharge on 30 April, where Spearman's Rank correlation, rs,=0.89 for the decade of the 2000s. We also investigated stream power for Bull Lake Creek above Bull Lake; and found a trend (significant at the 90% confidence level) toward reduced stream power from 1970 to 2009. Observed changes in streamflow and stream power may be related to increasing weekly maximum air temperature measured during the 40-year study period, possibly contributing to a reduction in snow cover. In addition, the strong relationship between percent of basin that was snow covered, and maximum monthly streamflow indicates that MODIS snow-cover maps are useful for predicting streamflow, and can be used to improve management of water resources in the drought-prone western United States.

MODIS↗

The Wettzell System Monitoring Concept and First Realizations

Automated monitoring of operational system parameters for the geodetic space techniques is becoming more important in order to improve the geodetic data and to ensure the safety and stability of automatic and remote-controlled observations. Therefore, the Wettzell group has developed the system monitoring software, SysMon, which is based on a reliable, remotely-controllable hardware/software realization. A multi-layered data logging system based on a fanless, robust industrial PC with an internal database system is used to collect data from several external, serial, bus, or PCI-based sensors. The internal communication is realized with Remote Procedure Calls (RPC) and uses generative programming with the interface software generator idl2rpc.pl developed at Wettzell. Each data monitoring stream can be configured individually via configuration files to define the logging rates or analog-digital-conversion parameters. First realizations are currently installed at the new laser ranging system at Wettzell to address safety issues and at the VLBI station O Higgins as a meteorological data logger. The system monitoring concept should be realized for the Wettzell radio telescope in the near future.

Ettl, Martin↗

An experimental investigation of a cold jet emitting from a body of revolution into a subsonic free stream

An experimental program was undertaken to determine the pressure distribution induced on aerodynamic bodies by a subsonic cold jet exhausting normal to the body surface and into a subsonic free stream. The investigation was limited to two bodies with single exhaust jets a flat plate at zero angle of attack with respect to the free-stream flow and a cylinder, fitted with a conical nose, with the longitudinal axis alined with the free-stream flow. Experimental data were obtained for free-stream velocity to jet velocity ratios between 0.3 and 0.5. The experimental data are presented in tabular form with appropriate graphs to indicate pressure coefficient contours, pressure coefficient decay, pitching-moment characteristics, and lift characteristics.

Ousterhout, D. S.↗

Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

There is a wealth of cosmological information encoded in the spatial power spectrum of temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background! Experiments designed to map the microwave sky are returning a flood of data (time streams of instrument response as a beam is swept over the sky) at several different frequencies (from 30 to 900 GHz), all with different resolutions and noise properties. The resulting analysis challenge is to estimate, and quantify our uncertainty in, the spatial power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background given the complexities of "missing data", foreground emission, and complicated instrumental noise. Bayesian formulation of this problem allows consistent treatment of many complexities including complicated instrumental noise and foregrounds, and can be numerically implemented with Gibbs sampling. Gibbs sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for low-resolution (as demonstrated on WMAP 1 and 3 year temperature and polarization data). Continuing development for Planck - the goal is to exploit the unique capabilities of Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters.

methods - statistical↗

A Preliminary Development of The Intelligent Change Detection System (ICDS): Using Machine Learning to Combat Change Blindness in Remote Operation Environments

The emergence of Advance Air Mobility (AAM) will increase the number and types of aerial vehicles operating in shared airspaces, which will subsequently affect the amount of actionable data that ground control station operators (GCSOs) will be expected to manage. In this environment, GCSOs are particularly susceptible to the visual perceptual phenomenon known as change blindness, in which a stimulus undergoes a change without the change being noticed by its observer. A machine agent designed to detect change blindness and mitigate the effects could improve human agent performance in a data-saturated remote operations environment. The objective of this paper is to describe a proof-of-concept system architecture that integrates real-time eye tracking and vehicle telemetry data to prevent human-agent errors resulting from change blindness while operating aircraft from a remote ground control station (GCS).

Real-Time Streaming Data Architecture↗

A Preliminary Development of The Intelligent Change Detection System (ICDS): Using Machine Learning to Combat Change Blindness in Remote Operation Environments

The emergence of Advance Air Mobility (AAM) will increase the number and types of aerial vehicles operating in shared airspaces, which will subsequently affect the amount of actionable data that ground control station operators (GCSOs) will be expected to manage. In this environment, GCSOs are particularly susceptible to the visual perceptual phenomenon known as change blindness, in which a stimulus undergoes a change without the change being noticed by its observer. A machine agent designed to detect change blindness and mitigate the effects could improve human agent performance in a data-saturated remote operations environment. The objective of this paper is to describe a proof-of-concept system architecture that integrates real-time eye tracking and vehicle telemetry data to prevent human-agent errors resulting from change blindness while operating aircraft from a remote ground control station (GCS).

Real-Time Streaming Data Architecture↗

Computer Program Recognizes Patterns in Time-Series Data

A computer program recognizes selected patterns in time-series data like digitized samples of seismic or electrophysiological signals. The program implements an artificial neural network (ANN) and a set of N clocks for the purpose of determining whether N or more instances of a certain waveform, W, occur within a given time interval, T. The ANN must be trained to recognize W in the incoming stream of data. The first time the ANN recognizes W, it sets clock 1 to count down from T to zero; the second time it recognizes W, it sets clock 2 to count down from T to zero, and so forth through the Nth instance. On the N + 1st instance, the cycle is repeated, starting with clock 1. If any clock has not reached zero when it is reset, then N instances of W have been detected within time T, and the program so indicates. The program can readily be encoded in a field-programmable gate array or an application-specific integrated circuit that could be used, for example, to detect electroencephalographic or electrocardiographic waveforms indicative of epileptic seizures or heart attacks, respectively.

Hand, Charles↗

Ocean observations with EOS/MODIS: Algorithm development and post launch studies

Several significant accomplishments were made during the present reporting period. We have completed our basic study of using the 1.38 micron MODIS band for removal of the effects of thin cirrus clouds and stratospheric aerosol. The results suggest that it should be possible to correct imagery for thin cirrus clouds with optical thicknesses as large as 0.5 to 1.0. We have also acquired reflectance data for oceanic whitecaps during a cruise on the RV Malcolm Baldrige in the Gulf of Mexico. The reflectance spectrum of whitecaps was found to be similar to that for breaking waves in the surf zone measured by Frouin, Schwindling and Deschamps. We installed a CIMEL sun photometer at Fort Jefferson on the Dry Tortugas off Key West in the Gulf of Mexico. The instrument has yielded a continuous stream of data since February. It shows that the aerosol optical thickness at 669 nm is often less than 0.1 in winter. This suggests that the Southern Gulf of Mexico will be an excellent winter site for vicarious calibration. In addition, we completed a study of the effect of vicarious calibration, i.e., the accuracy with which the radiance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) can be predicted from measurement of the sky radiance at the bottom of the atmosphere (BOA). The results suggest that the neglect of polarization in the aerosol optical property inversion algorithm and in the prediction code for the TOA radiances is the largest error associated with the radiative transfer process. Overall, the study showed that the accuracy of the TOA radiance prediction is now limited by the racliometric calibration error in the sky radiometer. Finally, considerable coccolith light scattering data were obtained in the Gulf of Maine with a flow-through instrument, along with data relating to calcite concentration and the rate of calcite production.

Gordan, Howard R.↗

Low-Cutoff, High-Pass Digital Filtering of Neural Signals

The figure depicts the major functional blocks of a system, now undergoing development, for conditioning neural signals acquired by electrodes implanted in a brain. The overall functions to be performed by this system can be summarized as preamplification, multiplexing, digitization, and high-pass filtering. Other systems under development for recording neural signals typically contain resistor-capacitor analog low-pass filters characterized by cutoff frequencies in the vicinity of 100 Hz. In the application for which this system is being developed, there is a requirement for a cutoff frequency of 5 Hz. Because the resistors needed to obtain such a low cutoff frequency would be impractically large, it was decided to perform low-pass filtering by use of digital rather than analog circuitry. In addition, it was decided to timemultiplex the digitized signals from the multiple input channels into a single stream of data in a single output channel. The signal in each input channel is first processed by a preamplifier having a voltage gain of approximately 50. Embedded in each preamplifier is a low-pass anti-aliasing filter having a cutoff frequency of approximately 10 kHz. The anti-aliasing filters make it possible to couple the outputs of the preamplifiers to the input ports of a multiplexer. The output of the multiplexer is a single stream of time-multiplexed samples of analog signals. This stream is processed by a main differential amplifier, the output of which is sent to an analog-to-digital converter (ADC). The output of the ADC is sent to a digital signal processor (DSP).

Mojarradi,Mohammad↗

A high-speed lossless data compression system for space applications

This paper reports on the integration of a lossless data compression/decompression chipset into a space data system architecture. For its compression engine, the data system incorporates the Universal Source Encoder (USE) designed for the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. Currently, the data compression testbed generates video frames consisting of 512 lines of 512 pixels having 8-bit resolution. Each image is passed through the USE where the lines are internally partitioned into 16-word blocks. These blocks are adaptively encoded across widely varying entropy levels using a Rice 12-option set coding algorithm. The current system operates at an Input/Output rate of 10 Msamples/s or 80 Mbits/s for each buffered input line. Frame and line synchronization for each image are maintained through the use of uniquely decodable command words. Length information of each variable length compressed image line is also included in the output stream. The data and command information are passed to the next stage of the system architecture through a serial fiber-optic transmitter. The initial segment of this stage consists of packetizer hardware which adds an appropriate CCSDS header to the received source data. An uncompressed mode is optionally available to pass image lines directly to the packetizer hardware. A data decompression testbed has also been developed to confirm the data compression operation.

Miko, Joe↗

REACH: Real-Time Data Awareness in Multi-Spacecraft Missions

Missions have been proposed that will use multiple spacecraft to perform scientific or commercial tasks. Indeed, in the commercial world, some spacecraft constellations already exist. Aside from the technical challenges of constructing and flying these missions, there is also the financial challenge presented by the tradition model of the flight operations team (FOT) when it is applied to a constellation mission. Proposed constellation missions range in size from three spacecraft to more than 50. If the current ratio of three-to-five FOT personnel per spacecraft is maintained, the size of the FOT becomes cost prohibitive. The Advanced Architectures and Automation Branch at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC Code 588) saw the potential to reduce the cost of these missions by creating new user interfaces to the ground system health-and-safety data. The goal is to enable a smaller FOT to remain aware and responsive to the increased amount of ground system information in a multi-spacecraft environment. Rather than abandon the tried and true, these interfaces were developed to run alongside existing ground system software to provide additional support to the FOT. These new user interfaces have been combined in a tool called REACH. REACH-the Real-time Evaluation and Analysis of Consolidated Health-is a software product that uses advanced visualization techniques to make spacecraft anomalies easy to spot, no matter how many spacecraft are in the constellation. REACH reads a real-time stream of data from the ground system and displays it to the FOT such that anomalies are easy to pick out and investigate. Data visualization has been used in ground system operations for many years. To provide a unique visualization tool, we developed a unique source of data to visualize: the REACH Health Model Engine. The Health Model Engine is rule-based software that receives real-time telemetry information and outputs "health" information related to the subsystems and spacecraft that the telemetry belong to. The Health Engine can run out-of-the-box or can be tailored with a scripting language. Out of the box, it uses limit violations to determine the health of subsystems and spacecraft; when tailored, it determines health using equations combining the values and limits of any telemetry in the spacecraft. The REACH visualizations then "roll up" the information from the Health Engine into high level, summary displays. These summary visualizations can be "zoomed" into for increasing levels of detail. Currently REACH is installed in the Small Explorer (SMEX) lab at GSFC, and is monitoring three of their five spacecraft. We are scheduled to install REACH in the Mid-sized Explorer (MIDEX) lab, which will allow us to monitor up to six more spacecraft. The process of installing and using our "research" software in an operational environment has provided many insights into which parts of REACH are a step forward and which of our ideas are missteps. Our paper explores both the new concepts in spacecraft health-and-safety visualization, the difficulties of such systems in the operational environment, and the cost and safety issues of multi-spacecraft missions.

Maks, Lori↗

REACH: Real-Time Data Awareness in Multi-Spacecraft Missions

NASA's Advanced Architectures and Automation Branch at the Goddard Space Flight Center (Code 588) saw the potential to reduce the cost of constellation missions by creating new user interfaces to the ground system health-and-safety data. The goal is to enable a small Flight Operations Team (FOT) to remain aware and responsive to the increased amount of ground system information in a multi-spacecraft environment. Rather than abandon the tried and true, these interfaces were developed to run alongside existing ground system software to provide additional support to the FOT. These new user interfaces have been combined in a tool called REACH. REACH-the Real-time Evaluation and Analysis of Consolidated Health-is a software product that uses advanced visualization techniques to make spacecraft anomalies easy to spot, no matter how many spacecraft are in the constellation. REACH reads numerous real-time streams of data from the ground system(s) and displays synthesized information to the FOT such that anomalies are easy to pick out and investigate.

Maks, Lori↗