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At least 559 records · Page 31

Solving Stochastic Inverse Problems for Property–Structure Linkages Using Data-Consistent Inversion and Machine Learning

Determining process–structure–property linkages is one of the key objectives in material science, and uncertainty quantification plays a critical role in understanding both process–structure and structure–property linkages. In this work, we seek to learn a distribution of microstructure parameters that are consistent in the sense that the forward propagation of this distribution through a crystal plasticity finite element model matches a target distribution on materials properties. This stochastic inversion formulation infers a distribution of acceptable/consistent microstructures, as opposed to a deterministic solution, which expands the range of feasible designs in a probabilistic manner. Furthermore, to solve this stochastic inverse problem, we employ a recently developed uncertainty quantification framework based on push-forward probability measures, which combines techniques from measure theory and Bayes’ rule to define a unique and numerically stable solution. This approach requires making an initial prediction using an initial guess for the distribution on model inputs and solving a stochastic forward problem. To reduce the computational burden in solving both stochastic forward and stochastic inverse problems, we combine this approach with a machine learning Bayesian regression model based on Gaussian processes and demonstrate the proposed methodology on two representative case studies in structure–property linkages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling the Amplfied OSC Experiment at IOTA

Optical Stochastic Cooling (OSC), a beam cooling technique based on Stochastic Cooling, is in the early stages of experimental development. It uses radiation produced by the beam in an undulator magnet (the pickup) to correct the momentum deviation of particles downstream in another undulator (the kicker). The OSC mechanism was recently demonstrated at Fermilabʼs IOTA ring using a passive configuration. However, the cooling rate of OSC can be dramatically increased by first amplifying the undulator radiation before applying the corrective kick. In collaboration with the IOTA experiment, we developed a computational model of the OSC mechanism. This work presents beam‐dynamics simulations of the amplified‐OSC configuration. We implement a model of intrabeam scattering and study the effects on beam equilibrium and diffusion rate as a function of bunch charge. Finally, we investigate the phase‐space dynamics with various coupling configurations between the transverse and longitudinal planes.

Dick, A. J.↗

HERON

HERON is a modeling toolset and plugin for RAVEN to accelerate stochastic technoeconomic assessment of the economic viability of various grid-energy system configurations, especially with application to electrical grids and integrated energy systems (IES). The frameworks enabling this toolset are INL's RAVEN and its TEAL plugin. The toolset includes automated RAVEN workflow generation tools for performing stochastic analysis and optimization driven by technoeconomic factors. The workflows generated employ RAVEN for parametric or optimizing study of grid component characteristics, and again for stochastic sampling of regulated and deregulated markets, load, and weather histories. The toolset further provides methods for economically-optimal dispatch of system components given the stochastic samples of market, load, and weather histories. The toolset allows assembling of existing and new models through the RAVEN interface to the Modelica process modeling language.

Talbot, PaulW↗

UQpy: A general purpose Python package and development environment for uncertainty quantification

In this paper, we present the UQpy software toolbox, an open-source Python package for general uncertainty quantification (UQ) in mathematical and physical systems. The software serves as both a user-ready toolbox that includes many of the latest methods for UQ in computational modeling and a convenient development environment for Python programmers advancing the field of UQ. The paper presents an introduction to the software's architecture and existing capabilities, divided in the code in a set of modules centered around different UQ tasks such as sampling methods, generation of random processes and random fields, probabilistic inverse modeling, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling, and active learning. The paper also highlights the importance of the RunModel module, which is used to drive simulations in the uncertainty analyses performed in UQpy. This module conveniently allows the user to define computational models directly in Python, or to run simulations from a third-party software in serial or in parallel. To illustrate the various capabilities, two examples are tracked throughout the paper and analyzed repeatedly for various UQ tasks. The first is a Python model solving a nonlinear structural dynamics problem, used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in sampling and forward propagation of high dimensional random vectors (stochastic processes), and probabilistic inference. The second model is a third-party Abaqus finite element model solving the thermomechanical response of a beam structure. This example is used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in variance reduction sampling techniques, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling and active learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimization with Neural Network Feasibility Surrogates: Formulations and Application to Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow

In many areas of constrained optimization, representing all possible constraints that give rise to an accurate feasible region can be difficult and computationally prohibitive for online use. Satisfying feasibility constraints becomes more challenging in high-dimensional, non-convex regimes which are common in engineering applications. A prominent example that is explored in the manuscript is the security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) problem, which minimizes power generation costs, while enforcing system feasibility under contingency failures in the transmission network. In its full form, this problem has been modeled as a nonlinear two-stage stochastic programming problem. In this work, we propose a hybrid structure that incorporates and takes advantage of both a high-fidelity physical model and fast machine learning surrogates. Neural network (NN) models have been shown to classify highly non-linear functions and can be trained offline but require large training sets. In this work, we present how model-guided sampling can efficiently create datasets that are highly informative to a NN classifier for non-convex functions. We show how the resultant NN surrogates can be integrated into a non-linear program as smooth, continuous functions to simultaneously optimize the objective function and enforce feasibility using existing non-linear solvers. Overall, this allows us to optimize instances of the SCOPF problem with an order of magnitude CPU improvement over existing methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

GoldSim E-Area Low-Level Waste Lacility Vadose Zone Model Benchmarking

This report documents the development and benchmarking of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) GoldSim Engineered and Slit Trench (ET and ST) vadose zone models. Subsequent activities (beyond the scope of this effort) will couple the GoldSim-based vadose zone models to the GoldSim aquifer model, with the intent of performing stochastic analyses that couple all pertinent fate and transport processes from the ground surface up to the 100-m Point of Assessment (POA). The benchmarking presented within this report focuses on the Slit Trench 06 (ST06) bydrostratigraphic location that resides within the center set of slit trenches. These GoldSim-based vadose zone models are generic models capable of being benchmarked to any of the other trench locations within E-Area.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS)

This short report introduces the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS), an economy-wide energy model of the United States. Sections cover SEDS methodology, technology representation, and lessons learned.

cost and performance↗

Probabilistic impact of electricity tariffs on distribution grids considering adoption of solar and storage technologies

This study models the role of electricity tariffs on the long-term adoption of photovoltaic and storage technologies as well as the consequent impact on the distribution grid. An adoption model that captures the economic rationality of tariff-driven investments and considers the stochastic nature of individual consumers’ decisions is proposed. This model is then combined with a probabilistic load flow to evaluate the long-term impacts of the adoption on the voltage profiles of the distribution grid. To illustrate the methodology, different components of the electricity tariffs, including solar compensation mechanisms and time differentiation of Time-of-Use (ToU) rates, are evaluated, using a case study involving a section of a medium-voltage network with 118 nodes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

GoldSim E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility Aquifer Zone Model Calibration Methodology

This report documents the development and calibration of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) Gold Sim aquifer model. It provides a methodology on how a Gold Sim aquifer model can be calibrated to specific PORFLOW-based aquifer predictions. The calibration activity presented within this report focuses on the Slit Trench #06 (ST06) location that resides within the center set of Slit Trenches. This Gold Sim-based aquifer model is a generic model capable of being calibrated to any of the other trench locations within E-Area. In addition, subsequent activities (beyond the scope of this effort) will couple this GoldSim-based aquifer model to various GoldSim-based trench models, with the intent of performing stochastic analyses that couple all pertinent fate and transport processes from the ground surface up to the 100-m point of assessment (POA).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility GoldSim System Model

This report documents the development of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) trench system model. The GoldSim® Monte Carlo simulation software is utilized to model the release and transport of radiological inventory disposed (both currently and in the future) within Engineered and Slit Trenches. This model is in support of the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the ELLWF Performance Assessment. The ELLWF system model utilizes a hybrid-approach to accurately describe the disposal system. The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance model provides the infiltration data to both PORFLOW and GoldSim. PORFLOW is used to calibrate the GoldSim model to ensure confidence in the stochastic results. Finally, the concentrations from GoldSim transport simulations are fed into the SRNL Dose Toolkit to calculate dose impacts and assess plume interaction

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Enhanced mechanical property evaluation using innovative data analytics capability

This report focuses on efforts to improve Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environ-ment (MOOSE) for mechanical property evaluation using data analytics. These efforts involveimprovements to the stochastic tools module (STM) for stochastic simulations of MOOSE mul-tiphysics model and the development of inverse optimization capabilities. The report gives anoverview of the STM and describes recent updates to its core capabilities and theory on itsreduced-order model (ROM) schemes. Examples are also provided showing the impact of theseupdates and exhibits the usefulness of ROMs. An overview of the gradient based inverse opti-mziation algorithms are given along with examples of their application to source identification.Inverse optimization will provide a new methodology in STM for fitting model parameters toexperimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impacts of Suppressing Excessive Light Rain on Aerosol Radiative Effects and Health Risks

Global climate models (GCMs) have been used widely to study radiative forcing and health risks of aerosols. A recent study using two GCMs found that light rain plays a dominant role in controlling aerosol loading. However, “too much light rain and too little heavy rain” is a longstanding bias in GCMs. It is unclear how much light rain affects aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and health risks from air pollution. Here, in this work, we show that, with the correction of the rainfall intensity spectrum in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 by introducing a stochastic deep convection scheme, the reduced frequency of light rain (1–20 mm d -1 ) results in changes of aerosol direct radiative effects (DRE) of up to -0.5 ± 0.03 W/m 2 and aerosol cloud radiative effects (CRE) of up to -0.9 ± 0.03 W/m 2 . The total (CRE + DRE) radiative effects of light rain-mediated aerosol changes exceed the present-day anthropogenic forcing of aerosols relative to preindustrial levels from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5&6) models. However, the correction of the rainfall intensity spectrum has little effect on anthropogenic aerosol forcing (defined as the radiative perturbation due to changes in aerosol concentrations between the industrial era and preindustrial levels). Due to increased exposure to fine particulates (PM 2.5 ), the estimated global total premature mortality is much higher than previously estimated, by 300,000 ± 60,000 deaths per year, and is more severe in populous regions such as India and China. The findings in this study highlight the need to understand uncertainties in radiative effects and health risks of aerosols due to simulation biases of precipitation in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Bloch equation for spin dynamics in electron storage rings: Computational and theoretical aspects

In this paper, we describe our work on spin polarization in high-energy electron storage rings which we base on the Full Bloch equation (FBE) for the polarization density and which aims towards the [Formula: see text] option of the proposed Future Circular Collider (FCC-ee) and the proposed Circular Electron Positron Collider (CEPC). The FBE takes into account non spin-flip and spin-flip effects due to synchrotron radiation including the spin-diffusion effects and the Sokolov–Ternov effect with its Baier–Katkov generalization as well as the kinetic-polarization effect. This mathematical model is an alternative to the standard mathematical model based on the Derbenev–Kondratenko formulas. For our numerical and analytical studies of the FBE, we develop an approximation to the latter to obtain an effective FBE. This is accomplished by finding a third mathematical model based on a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) underlying the FBE and by approximating that system via the method of averaging from perturbative ODE theory. We also give an overview of our algorithm for numerically integrating the effective FBE. This discretizes the phase space using spectral methods and discretizes time via the additive Runge–Kutta (ARK) method which is a high-order semi-implicit method. We also discuss the relevance of the third mathematical model for spin tracking.

Physics↗

Stochastic Pricing Game for Aggregated Demand Response Considering Comfort Level

In recent years, demand response (DR) has been explored as a fundamental strategy for demand-side management due to its advantages in mediating intermittency of renewable energy generation, load shifting, etc. To engage customers in DR programs, several deterministic price-based DR strategies have been developed and implemented. However, the stochastic weather conditions and occupants' consumption behaviors often make the deterministic solution less robust to uncertainties. In this paper, with the consideration of the uncertainties, a stochastic Stackelberg game is proposed to model the price-demand negotiation between a distributed system operator and load aggregators, where the virtual battery constraints are extracted from the building thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs)‘ characteristics to guarantee comfortable TCLs' levels. Following the negotiation, a priority-based control method is used to allocate the optimal aggregated power DR profile at the building level and track the power signal. Several groups of experiments have demonstrated the effectiveness and robustness of the stochastic solutions.

Chen, Yang↗

Influence of inhomogeneous stochasticity on the falsifiability of mean-field theories and examples from accretion disc modelling

ABSTRACT Despite spatial and temporal fluctuations in turbulent astrophysical systems, mean-field theories can be used to describe their secular evolution. However, observations taken over time scales much shorter than dynamical time scales capture a system in a single state of its turbulence ensemble. Comparing with mean-field theory can falsify the latter only if the theory is additionally supplied with a quantified precision. The central limit theorem provides appropriate estimates to the precision only when fluctuations contribute linearly to an observable and with constant coherent scales. Here, we introduce an error propagation formula that relaxes both limitations, allowing for non-linear functional forms of observables and inhomogeneous coherent scales and amplitudes of fluctuations. The method is exemplified in the context of accretion disc theories, where inhomogeneous fluctuations in the surface temperature are propagated to the disc emission spectrum – the latter being a non-linear and non-local function of the former. The derived precision depends non-monotonically on emission frequency. Using the same method, we investigate how binned spectral fluctuations in telescope data change with the spectral resolving power. We discuss the broader implications for falsifiability of a mean-field theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Developing a Nuclear Quality Assurance Compliant Design Methodology for Neutronic Analysis of Xe-100 Design

The primary objective of this work is to develop a design methodology compliant with nuclear quality assurance standards for the Xe-100 neutronic design verification studies. To achieve this, a Monte Carlo model of the Xe-100 reactor was constructed using the exclusion principle, transformation technique, and universe-based level specification following Idaho National Laboratory (INL) NQA level-1 compliant standards and an NQA-1 compliant version of MCNP6. The model encompasses the entire reactor core structures, including the upper plenum, core region, and lower plenum sections, along with all sub-components. The active core section was represented using the spectral regions, each comprising a particular fuel composition and temperature averaged over the considered zone, calculated by X-energy using Very Superior Old Programs (VSOP). Additionally, a component-wise temperature map was implemented into the model, not only for the core region but also for the structural components. Temperature-dependent cross-section libraries, along with thermal scattering law libraries, generated using INL NQA-1 compliant version of NJOY21, were utilized for each isotope in the burnt fuel and the structural materials. Furthermore, the volume of each modeled component was estimated using a stochastic approach with the ray tracing method in MCNP and criticality calculations were performed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗