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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Gaussian Beta Ensembles at High Temperature: Eigenvalue Fluctuations and Bulk Statistics

We study the limiting behavior of Gaussian beta ensembles in the regime where βn=const as n→∞. The results are (1) Gaussian fluctuations for linear statistics of the eigenvalues, and (2) Poisson convergence of the bulk statistics. (2) is an alternative proof of the result by Benaych-Georges and Péché (J Stat Phys 161(3):633–656, 2015) with the explicit form of the intensity measure.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

The CMS Statistical Analysis and Combination Tool: Combine

This paper describes the Combine software package used for statistical analyses by the CMS Collaboration. The package, originally designed to perform searches for a Higgs boson and the combined analysis of those searches, has evolved to become the statistical analysis tool presently used in the majority of measurements and searches performed by the CMS Collaboration. It is not specific to the CMS experiment, and this paper is intended to serve as a reference for users outside of the CMS Collaboration, providing an outline of the most salient features and capabilities. Readers are provided with the possibility to run Combine and reproduce examples provided in this paper using a publicly available container image. Since the package is constantly evolving to meet the demands of ever-increasing data sets and analysis sophistication, this paper cannot cover all details of Combine. However, the online documentation referenced within this paper provides an up-to-date and complete user guide.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of the Al-rich part of the Al-Cu phase diagram using cluster expansion and statistical mechanics

In this work, the thermodynamic properties of α-Al and other phases (GP zones, θ'', θ' and θ) in the Al-rich part of the Al-Cu system have been obtained by means of the cluster expansion formalism in combination with statistical mechanics. This information was used to build the Al-rich part of the Al-Cu phase-diagram taking into account vibrational entropic contributions for θ', as those of the other phases were negligible. The simulation predictions of the phase boundaries between α-Al and either θ'', θ' or θ phases as a function of temperature are in good agreement with experimental data and extend the phase boundaries to a wider temperature range. The DFT calculations reveal the presence of a number of metastable Guinier-Preston-zone type configurations that may coexist with α-Al and θ'' at low temperatures. They also demonstrate that θ' is the stable phase below 550K but it is replaced by θ above this temperature due to the vibrational entropic contribution to the Gibbs energy of θ'. This work shows how the combination of cluster expansion and statistical mechanics can be used to expand our knowledge of the phase diagram of metallic alloys and to provide Gibbs free energies of different phases that can be used as input in mesoscale simulations of precipitation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Temporal evolution of soil moisture statistical fractal and controls by soil texture and regional groundwater flow

Soil moisture statistical fractal is an important tool for downscaling remotely-sensed observations and has the potential to play a key role in multi-scale hydrologic modeling. The fractal was first introduced two decades ago, but relatively little is known regarding how its scaling exponents evolve in time in response to climatic forcings. Previous studies have neglected the process of moisture re-distribution due to regional groundwater flow. Here, we used a physically-based surface-subsurface processes model and numerical experiments to elucidate the patterns and controls of fractal temporal evolution in two U.S. Midwest basins. Groundwater flow was found to introduce large-scale spatial structure, thereby reducing the scaling exponents (τ), which has implications for the transferability of calibrated parameters to predict τ. However, the groundwater effects depend on complex interactions with other physical controls such as soil texture and land use. The fractal scaling exponents, while in general showing a seasonal mode that correlates with mean moisture content, display hysteresis after storm events that can be divided into three phases, consistent with literature findings: (a) wetting, (b) re-organizing, and (c) dry-down. Modeling experiments clearly show that the hysteresis is attributed to soil texture, whose "patchiness" is the primary contributing factor. We generalized phenomenological rules for the impacts of rainfall, soil texture, groundwater flow, and land use on τevolution. Grid resolution has a mild influence on the results and there is a strong correlation between predictions of τ from different resolutions. Overall, our results suggest that groundwater flow should be given more consideration in studies of the soil moisture statistical fractal, especially in regions with a shallow water table.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

High precision statistical Landau gauge lattice gluon propagator computation vs. the Gribov–Zwanziger approach

In this article we report on lattice results for the Landau gauge gluon propagator using large statistical ensembles. In particular, the compatibility of the lattice data with the tree level predictions of the Refined Gribov–Zwanziger and the Very Refined Gribov–Zwanziger actions is analysed, complementing earlier work using small-scale statistics. Our results show that the data is well described by the tree level estimate only up to momenta p≲1 GeV and clearly favours the so-called Refined Gribov–Zwanziger scenario propagator. For the Very Refined Gribov–Zwanziger action, these results imply a particular relation between d=2 condensates. Furthermore, we also provide a global fit of the lattice data that interpolates between the above scenario at low momenta and the usual continuum one-loop renormalization improved perturbation theory after introducing an infrared log-regularizing term.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Higher order corrected thermodynamics and statistics of Kerr–Newman–Gödel black hole

In this paper, we consider the rotating charged Gödel black hole and study the effect of the higher order corrections of the entropy on the thermodynamics and statistics quantities of the Kerr–Newman–Gödel black hole. The leading order correction is logarithmic while higher-order terms are proportional to the inverse of the area of the black hole. We obtain modified thermodynamics and statistics and find that correction terms are important in the stability of the black hole.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of cluster expansion on the locations of phase transition boundary as a first step to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework

Predicting phase diagrams from first principle calculations eliminates the need of tedious experimental trials and errors. Fully automating first principle phase diagram calculations without any sort of human intervention has been a long daunting task and troubling scientific communities for decades. This grand problem remains not fully resolved, largely due to the vastly high-dimensional parameter space associated with density functional theory, cluster expansion, lattice Monte Carlo, and the substantial uncertainty propagating through a set of complex simulations. As a first step to tackle this grand problem, we reported a first demonstration of how sensitive phase boundary locations can be to various cluster expansion fittings and input DFT training data. To the best knowledge of the authors, this study reported the first ever attempt to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework. In addition, a semi-automated phase transition detection algorithm has been devised in this paper to deal with the associated statistical errors and uncertainties from Monte Carlo method and its predecessor DFT calculations and cluster expansions. This algorithm has been applied in a classical cluster expansion Mg-Cd binary alloy system to detect phase transitions at various locations of phase diagram using different cluster expansions to demonstrate its predictive power and quantify uncertainties. The results suggested that using Chebyshev basis function shifted the transition locations toward the dilute solid solution phase and expanded the phase stability of concentrated ordered phases to wider composition range. The addition of perturbed defect configurations into training data set lowered the order-disorder transition temperature to be away from true transition temperature, suggesting the transition nature is indeed configurational disorder dominated rather than defect assisted. Finally, we found that the weighting has negligible effect on the transition locations, except for the case of using Chebyshev basis function to fit all non-weighted configurations that can be susceptible to Monte Carlo sampling hysteresis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Corrosion of rebar in concrete. Part II: Literature survey and statistical analysis of existing data on chloride threshold

The literature is reviewed with respect to defining, measuring, and interpreting the chloride threshold (CT). CT was defined with a strong fundamental basis in the Point Defect Model. which also dictates the nature of the statistical analysis of surveyed CT values. A database of CT for various primary and secondary independent variables has been established. Statistical analyses reveal that CT is lognormally distributed, in accordance with the PDM, with most probable values being 0.85, 0.69, and 1.19 for %total Cl/cem, %free Cl/cem, and [Cl - ]/[OH - ], respectively. The breakdown and corrosion potentials follow normal distributions with means of 0.056 and -0.322 V SCE , respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inter-well connectivity detection in CO 2 WAG projects using statistical recurrent unit models

Routine well-wise injection and production measurements contain significant information on subsurface structure and properties. Data-driven technology that interprets surface data into subsurface structure or properties can assist operators in making informed decisions by providing a better understanding of field assets. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO 2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. SRU is a special type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that allows for better characterization of temporal trends, by learning various statistics of the input at different time scales. In our application, the complete states (injection rate, pressure and cumulative injection) at injectors and pressure states at producers are fed to SRU as the input and the phase rates at producers are treated as the output. Once the SRU is trained and validated, it is then used to assess the connectivity of each injector to any producer using permutation variable importance method, wherein inputs corresponding to an injector are shuffled and the increase in prediction error at a given producer is recorded as the importance (connectivity metric) of the injector to the producer. This method is tested in both synthetic and field-scale cases. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. This significantly improves confidence in our data-driven procedure. The novelty of this work is that it is purely data-driven method and can directly interpret routine surface measurements to intuitive subsurface knowledge. Furthermore, the streamline-based validation procedure provides physics-based backing to the results obtained from data analytics. This study results in a reliable and efficient data analytics framework that is well-suited for large field applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

A new method to reduce the statistical and systematic uncertainty of chance coincidence backgrounds measured with waveform digitizers

We present a new method for measuring chance-coincidence backgrounds during the collection of coincidence data. The method relies on acquiring data with near-zero dead time, which is now realistic due to the increasing deployment of flash electronic-digitizer (waveform digitizer) techniques. An experiment designed to use this new method is capable of acquiring more coincidence data, and a much reduced statistical fluctuation of the measured background. A statistical analysis is presented, and us ed to derive a figure of merit for the new method. Factors of four improvement over other analyses are realistic. The technique is illustrated with preliminary data taken as part of a program to make new measurements of the prompt fission neutron spectra at Los Alamo s Neutron Science Center. In conclusion, it is expected that the these measurements will occur in a regime where the maximum figure of merit will be exploited

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing the limits of statistical neutron capture for the r process: Experimental constraints on 141 Cs nuclear level densities

The r-process abundance peaks, particularly near mass number A ∼ 130, reflect underlying nuclear structure effects such as closed neutron shells, yet modeling the nucleosynthesis in this region remains hindered by uncertain neutron-capture rates. These rates are especially sensitive to nuclear level densities (NLDs) and γ-ray strength functions of neutron-rich nuclei, where experimental data are scarce. We present the first experimental constraint on the NLD of 141 Cs using the β-Oslo method, extending sensitivity to the neutron-rich regime near the N = 82 closed shell. Our data allow for critical calibration of microscopic NLD models and reveal that 141 Cs lies near the limit of statistical model applicability. Using this experimental input, we evaluate radiative neutron-capture rates across neighboring isotones using both Hauser–Feshbach (HF) and High Fidelity Resonance (HFR) models. Our results show order-of-magnitude rate increases for nuclei along the N = 86 line, signaling a transition to resonance-dominated capture in this region. These findings underscore the importance of constraining NLDs to improve r-process reaction network predictions, particularly in environments where the validity of statistical models breaks down.

Nuclear level density↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

A tutorial introduction to the statistical theory of turbulent plasmas, a half-century after Kadomtsev’s Plasma Turbulence and the resonance-broadening theory of Dupree and Weinstock

In honour of the 50th anniversary of the influential review/monograph on plasma turbulence by B. B. Kadomtsev as well as the seminal works of T. H. Dupree and J. Weinstock on resonance-broadening theory, an introductory tutorial is given about some highlights of the statistical–dynamical description of turbulent plasmas and fluids, including the ideas of nonlinear incoherent noise, coherent damping, and self-consistent dielectric response. The statistical closure problem is introduced. Incoherent noise and coherent damping are illustrated with a solvable model of passive advection. Self-consistency introduces turbulent polarization effects that are described by the dielectric function ${\mathcal{D}}$ . Dupree’s method of using ${\mathcal{D}}$ to estimate the saturation level of turbulence is described; then it is explained why a more complete theory that includes nonlinear noise is required. The general theory is best formulated in terms of Dyson equations for the covariance $C$ and an infinitesimal response function $R$ , which subsumes ${\mathcal{D}}$ . An important example is the direct-interaction approximation (DIA). It is shown how to use Novikov’s theorem to develop an $\boldsymbol{x}$ -space approach to the DIA that is complementary to the original $\boldsymbol{k}$ -space approach of Kraichnan. A dielectric function is defined for arbitrary quadratically nonlinear systems, including the Navier–Stokes equation, and an algorithm for determining the form of ${\mathcal{D}}$ in the DIA is sketched. The independent insights of Kadomtsev and Kraichnan about the problem of the DIA with random Galilean invariance are described. The mixing-length formula for drift-wave saturation is discussed in the context of closures that include nonlinear noise (shielded by ${\mathcal{D}}$ ). The role of $R$ in the calculation of the symmetry-breaking (zonostrophic) instability of homogeneous turbulence to the generation of inhomogeneous mean flows is addressed. The second-order cumulant expansion and the stochastic structural stability theory are also discussed in that context. In conclusion, various historical research threads are mentioned and representative entry points to the literature are given. In addition, some outstanding conceptual issues are enumerated.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Size-Resolved Shape Evolution in Inorganic Nanocrystals Captured via High-Throughput Deep Learning-Driven Statistical Characterization

Precise size and shape control in nanocrystal synthesis is essential for utilizing nanocrystals in various industrial applications, such as catalysis, sensing, and energy conversion. However, traditional ensemble measurements often overlook the subtle size and shape distributions of individual nanocrystals, hindering the establishment of robust structure–property relationships. In this study, we uncover intricate shape evolutions and growth mechanisms in Co 3 O 4 nanocrystal synthesis at a subnanometer scale, enabled by deep-learning-assisted statistical characterization. By first controlling synthetic parameters such as cobalt precursor concentration and water amount then using high resolution electron microscopy imaging to identify the geometric features of individual nanocrystals, this study provides insights into the interplay between synthesis conditions and the sizedependent shape evolution in colloidal nanocrystals. Utilizing population-wide imaging data encompassing over 441,067 nanocrystals, we analyze their characteristics and elucidate previously unobserved size-resolved shape evolution. This high-throughput statistical analysis is essential for representing the entire population accurately and enables the study of the size dependency of growth regimes in shaping nanocrystals. Our findings provide experimental quantification of the growth regime transition based on the size of the crystals, specifically (i) for faceting and (ii) from thermodynamic to kinetic, as evidenced by transitions from convex to concave polyhedral crystals. Additionally, we introduce the concept of an “onset radius,” which describes the critical size thresholds at which these transitions occur. This discovery has implications beyond achieving nanocrystals with desired morphology; it enables finely tuned correlation between geometry and material properties, advancing the field of colloidal nanocrystal synthesis and its applications.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results. VII. Isotropy and Statistics of the CMB

Analysis of the Planck 2018 data set indicates that the statistical properties of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies are in excellent agreement with previous studies using the 2013 and 2015 data releases. In particular, they are consistent with the Gaussian predictions of the ΛCDM cosmological model, yet also confirm the presence of several so-called “anomalies” on large angular scales. The novelty of the current study, however, lies in being a first attempt at a comprehensive analysis of the statistics of the polarization signal over all angular scales, using either maps of the Stokes parameters, Q and U , or the E -mode signal derived from these using a new methodology (which we describe in an appendix). Although remarkable progress has been made in reducing the systematic effects that contaminated the 2015 polarization maps on large angular scales, it is still the case that residual systematics (and our ability to simulate them) can limit some tests of non-Gaussianity and isotropy. However, a detailed set of null tests applied to the maps indicates that these issues do not dominate the analysis on intermediate and large angular scales (i.e., ℓ ≲ 400). In this regime, no unambiguous detections of cosmological non-Gaussianity, or of anomalies corresponding to those seen in temperature, are claimed. Notably, the stacking of CMB polarization signals centred on the positions of temperature hot and cold spots exhibits excellent agreement with the ΛCDM cosmological model, and also gives a clear indication of how Planck provides state-of-the-art measurements of CMB temperature and polarization on degree scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Set statistics in conductive bridge random access memory device with Cu/HfO{sub 2}/Pt structure

The switching parameter variation of resistive switching memory is one of the most important challenges in its application. In this letter, we have studied the set statistics of conductive bridge random access memory with a Cu/HfO{sub 2}/Pt structure. The experimental distributions of the set parameters in several off resistance ranges are shown to nicely fit a Weibull model. The Weibull slopes of the set voltage and current increase and decrease logarithmically with off resistance, respectively. This experimental behavior is perfectly captured by a Monte Carlo simulator based on the cell-based set voltage statistics model and the Quantum Point Contact electron transport model. Our work provides indications for the improvement of the switching uniformity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Statistical analysis of content of Cs-137 in soils in Bansko-Razlog region

Statistical analysis of the data set consisting of the activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in soils in Bansko–Razlog region is carried out in order to establish the dependence of the deposition and the migration of {sup 137}Cs on the soil type. The descriptive statistics and the test of normality show that the data set have not normal distribution. Positively skewed distribution and possible outlying values of the activity of {sup 137}Cs in soils were observed. After reduction of the effects of outliers, the data set is divided into two parts, depending on the soil type. Test of normality of the two new data sets shows that they have a normal distribution. Ordinary kriging technique is used to characterize the spatial distribution of the activity of {sup 137}Cs over an area covering 40 km{sup 2} (whole Razlog valley). The result (a map of the spatial distribution of the activity concentration of {sup 137}Cs) can be used as a reference point for future studies on the assessment of radiological risk to the population and the erosion of soils in the study area.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Statistical optimisation techniques in fatigue signal editing problem

Success in fatigue signal editing is determined by the level of length reduction without compromising statistical constraints. A great reduction rate can be achieved by removing small amplitude cycles from the recorded signal. The long recorded signal sometimes renders the cycle-to-cycle editing process daunting. This has encouraged researchers to focus on the segment-based approach. This paper discusses joint application of the Running Damage Extraction (RDE) technique and single constrained Genetic Algorithm (GA) in fatigue signal editing optimisation.. In the first section, the RDE technique is used to restructure and summarise the fatigue strain. This technique combines the overlapping window and fatigue strain-life models. It is designed to identify and isolate the fatigue events that exist in the variable amplitude strain data into different segments whereby the retention of statistical parameters and the vibration energy are considered. In the second section, the fatigue data editing problem is formulated as a constrained single optimisation problem that can be solved using GA method. The GA produces the shortest edited fatigue signal by selecting appropriate segments from a pool of labelling segments. Challenges arise due to constraints on the segment selection by deviation level over three signal properties, namely cumulative fatigue damage, root mean square and kurtosis values. Experimental results over several case studies show that the idea of solving fatigue signal editing within a framework of optimisation is effective and automatic, and that the GA is robust for constrained segment selection.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗