Results for “statistical design” — Page 31

NASA NTRS1987

Design and validation of fault-tolerant flight systems

Flight systems must be validated to show that they are consistent with the requirements of their intended applications. While high reliability is difficult to validate, the additional complexity of fault tolerance further compounds the validation problem. The objective of NASA’s research is to develop a methodology for designing validatable fault-tolerant systems. Under the design-for-validation philosophy, emphasis is placed on developing validation methods that can be incorporated into the design process right from the start and design methods and guidance which, while incorporating fault tolerance, can assure validatability. This paper examines the statistical issues of validating highly reliable, fault tolerant system. There are many problems associated with traditional methods of designing and validating these potentially complex hardware and software systems. Useful design-for-validation methods, which include structured specification and design methodologies, mathematical proof techniques, analytical modeling, simulation and emulation, and physical testing, are discussed. Important design issues associated with fault tolerance are presented along with the related validation concerns which must be addressed. Experience has shown that synchronization and Byzantine resilience must accompany fault tolerance. Other design attributes associated with fault tolerance may be used by a designer on the basis of cost, weight, performance, and validation considerations.

Computer systems↗

NASA NTRS2013

Validating an Air Traffic Management Concept of Operation Using Statistical Modeling

Validating a concept of operation for a complex, safety-critical system (like the National Airspace System) is challenging because of the high dimensionality of the controllable parameters and the infinite number of states of the system. In this paper, we use statistical modeling techniques to explore the behavior of a conflict detection and resolution algorithm designed for the terminal airspace. These techniques predict the robustness of the system simulation to both nominal and off-nominal behaviors within the overall airspace. They also can be used to evaluate the output of the simulation against recorded airspace data. Additionally, the techniques carry with them a mathematical value of the worth of each prediction-a statistical uncertainty for any robustness estimate. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process of quantitative characterization and ultimately a reduction of uncertainties in complex systems. UQ is important for understanding the influence of uncertainties on the behavior of a system and therefore is valuable for design, analysis, and verification and validation. In this paper, we apply advanced statistical modeling methodologies and techniques on an advanced air traffic management system, namely the Terminal Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE). We show initial results for a parameter analysis and safety boundary (envelope) detection in the high-dimensional parameter space. For our boundary analysis, we developed a new sequential approach based upon the design of computer experiments, allowing us to incorporate knowledge from domain experts into our modeling and to determine the most likely boundary shapes and its parameters. We carried out the analysis on system parameters and describe an initial approach that will allow us to include time-series inputs, such as the radar track data, into the analysis

Statistical emulation↗

NASA NTRS1991

An assessment of tailoring of lightning protection design requirements for a composite wing structure on a metallic aircraft

The Navy A-6E aircraft is presently being modified with a new wing which uses graphite/epoxy structures and substructures around a titanium load-bearing structure. The ability of composites to conduct electricity is less than that of aluminum. This is cause for concern when the wing may be required to conduct large lightning currents. The manufacturer attempted to solve lightning protection issues by performing a risk assessment based on a statistical approach which allows relaxation of the wing lightning protection design levels over certain locations of the composite wing. A sensitivity study is presented designed to define the total risk of relaxation of the design levels.

Harwood, T. L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A physics informed bayesian optimization approach for material design: application to NiTi shape memory alloys

Abstract The design of materials and identification of optimal processing parameters constitute a complex and challenging task, necessitating efficient utilization of available data. Bayesian Optimization (BO) has gained popularity in materials design due to its ability to work with minimal data. However, many BO-based frameworks predominantly rely on statistical information, in the form of input-output data, and assume black-box objective functions. In practice, designers often possess knowledge of the underlying physical laws governing a material system, rendering the objective function not entirely black-box, as some information is partially observable. In this study, we propose a physics-informed BO approach that integrates physics-infused kernels to effectively leverage both statistical and physical information in the decision-making process. We demonstrate that this method significantly improves decision-making efficiency and enables more data-efficient BO. The applicability of this approach is showcased through the design of NiTi shape memory alloys, where the optimal processing parameters are identified to maximize the transformation temperature.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accounting for erroneous model structures in biokinetic process models

In engineering practice, model-based design requires not only a good process-based model, but also a good description of stochastic disturbances and measurement errors to learn credible parameter values from observations. However, typical methods use Gaussian error models, which often cannot describe the complex temporal patterns of residuals. Consequently, this results in overconfidence in the identified parameters and, in turn, optimistic reactor designs. Here, we assess the strengths and weaknesses of a method to statistically describe these patterns with autocorrelated error models. This method produces increased widths of the credible prediction intervals following the inclusion of the bias term, in turn leading to more conservative design choices. However, we also show that the augmented error model is not a universal tool, as its application cannot guarantee the desired reliability of the resulting wastewater reactor design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1977

Design of redundant systems

Algorithmic approach is useful for analysis of systems with noisy inputs and when outputs are required in terms of statistical quantities and probabilities of signal excursions beyond desired levels. Procedure can be used with circuits, chemical processes, material design, and other systems with known transfer functions and parameter tolerances.

Doty, L. F.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inverse design of a pyrochlore lattice of DNA origami through model-driven experiments

Sophisticated statistical mechanics approaches and human intuition have demonstrated the possibility of self-assembling complex lattices or finite-size constructs. However, attempts so far have mostly only been successful in silico and often fail in experiment because of unpredicted traps associated with kinetic slowing down (gelation, glass transition) and competing ordered structures. Theoretical predictions also face the difficulty of encoding the desired interparticle interaction potential with the experimentally available nano- and micrometer-sized particles. To overcome these issues, we combine SAT assembly (a patchy-particle interaction design algorithm based on constrained optimization) with coarse-grained simulations of DNA nanotechnology to experimentally realize trap-free self-assembly pathways. In this paper, we use this approach to assemble a pyrochlore three-dimensional lattice, coveted for its promise in the construction of optical metamaterials, and characterize it with small-angle x-ray scattering and scanning electron microscopy visualization.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning enabled discovery of application dependent design principles for two-dimensional materials

Abstract The unique electronic and mechanical properties of two-dimensional (2D) materials make them promising next-generation candidates for a variety of applications. Large-scale searches for high-performing 2D materials are limited to calculating descriptors with computationally demanding first-principles density functional theory. In this work, we alleviate this issue by extending and generalizing crystal graph convolutional neural networks to systems with planar periodicity and train an ensemble of models to predict thermodynamic, mechanical and electronic properties. We carry out a screening of nearly 45,000 structures for two separate applications: mechanical strength and photovoltaics. By collecting statistics of the screened candidates, we investigate structural and compositional design principles that impact the properties of the structures surveyed. Our approach recovers some well-accepted design rules: hybrid organic-inorganic perovskites with lead and tin tend to be good candidates for solar cell applications and titanium based MXenes usually have high stiffness coefficients. Interestingly, other members of the group 4 elements also contribute to increasing the mechanical strength of MXenes. For all-inorganic perovskites, we discover some compositions that have not been deeply studied in the field of photovoltaics and thus open up paths for further investigation. We open-source the code-base to spur further development in this space.

Venturi, Victor (ORCID:0000000156727549)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Analysis of Fading Power Vectors for Real-Time Atmospheric Channel Emulation

The design and testing of a free-space optical communication system requires assessment of the impact of random fluctuations in received power from a laser beam transmitted over an atmospheric channel. A number of methods for generating fading power vectors for in-lab emulation of an atmospheric channel have previously been reported. These techniques include spectral shaping and filtering of a signal from a normally distributed pseudo-random number generator, full wave optics simulations with random phase screens, and pre-recorded measurements from experimental free-space links. In this work, a statistical analysis of atmospheric fading is presented with the goal of producing a practical engineering model for the fading channel suitable for generating synthetic fade vectors in real-time for long-duration receiver testing with channel interleaving. Specifically, a parametric model is developed for turbulence-induced fade on space-to-ground links with large-aperture receivers, including aperture-averaging and the effects of aperture size on the instantaneous coupling efficiency for mode- limited receivers. In particular, we analyze the probability density function and temporal power spectrum for fluctuations of the coupling efficiency for few-mode fibers in a range of turbulence conditions.

free-space optical communication↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Analysis of Fading Power Vectors for Real-Time Atmospheric Channel Emulation

The design and testing of a free-space optical communication system requires assessment of the impact of random fluctuations in received power from a laser beam transmitted over an atmospheric channel. A number of methods for generating fading power vectors for in-lab emulation of an atmospheric channel have previously been reported. These techniques include spectral shaping and filtering of a signal from a normally distributed pseudo-random number generator, full wave optics simulations with random phase screens, and pre-recorded measurements from experimental free-space links. In this work, a statistical analysis of atmospheric fading is presented with the goal of producing a practical engineering model for the fading channel suitable for generating synthetic fade vectors in real-time for long-duration receiver testing with channel interleaving. Specifically, a parametric model is developed for turbulence-induced fade on space-to-ground links with large-aperture receivers, including aperture-averaging and the effects of aperture size on the instantaneous coupling efficiency for mode-limited receivers. In particular, we analyze the probability density function and temporal power spectrum for fluctuations of the coupling efficiency for few-mode fibers in a range of turbulence conditions.

free-space optical communication↗

NASA NTRS1989

Global backscatter assessment

The focus of this effort is the development of a global-scale model of aerosol backscatter for laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) design and performance studies. Background parameters are derived from aerosol data sets with global-scale spatial and/or temporal coverage, using objective statistical decomposition and/or a priori stratification based on supplementary data. Backscatter coefficients at the LAWS design wavelength are derived from background aerosol physical, chemical, and optical data, or from direct backscatter measurements at other wavelengths, using background conversion factors. Direct measurements of aerosol backscatter at 10.6 microns from the Royal Signals and Radar Establishment (RSRE) and the Wave Propagation Laboratory (WPL) were selected. The RSRE backscatter data processing code were optimized under low backscatter conditions, performed detailed analyses of collocated intercomparisons between the two lidars, and assisted in the analysis of the long-term backscatter climatologies from the two lidars. Timely presentation of global backscattering experiment (GLOBE) research results to the global geophysical community is required.

Bowdle, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Statistical Characterization of 18650-Format Lithium-Ion Cell Thermal Runaway Energy Distributions

Effective thermal management systems, designed to handle the impacts of thermal runaway (TR) and to prevent cell-to-cell propagation, are key to safe operation of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery assemblies. Critical factors for optimizing these systems include the total energy released during a single cell TR event and the fraction of the total energy that is released through the cell casing vs. through the ejecta material. A unique calorimeter was utilized to examine the TR behavior of a statistically significant number of 18650-format Li-ion cells with varying manufacturers, chemistries, and capacities. The calorimeter was designed to contain the TR energy in a format conducive to discerning the fractions of energy released through the cell casing vs. through the ejecta material. Other benefits of this calorimeter included the ability to rapidly test of large quantities of cells and the intentional minimization of secondary combustion effects. High energy (270 Wh/kg) and moderate energy (200 Wh/kg) 18650 cells were tested. Some of the cells had an imbedded short circuit (ISC) device installed to aid in the examination of TR mechanisms under more realistic conditions. Other variations included cells with bottom vent (BV) features and cells with thin casings (0.22 1/4m). After combining the data gathered with the calorimeter, a statistical approach was used to examine the probability of certain TR behavior, and the associated energy distributions, as a function of capacity, venting features, cell casing thickness and temperature.

Thermal Runaway Energy Distribution↗

NASA NTRS1996

Statistical Tolerance and Clearance Analysis for Assembly

Tolerance is inevitable because manufacturing exactly equal parts is known to be impossible. Furthermore, the specification of tolerances is an integral part of product design since tolerances directly affect the assemblability, functionality, manufacturability, and cost effectiveness of a product. In this paper, we present statistical tolerance and clearance analysis for the assembly. Our proposed work is expected to make the following contributions: (i) to help the designers to evaluate products for assemblability, (ii) to provide a new perspective to tolerance problems, and (iii) to provide a tolerance analysis tool which can be incorporated into a CAD or solid modeling system.

statistical tolerance clearance analysis Monte-Car↗

DOE OSTI2022

Experimental results of conductive inserts to reduce nuclear fuel temperature during nuclear volumetric heating

Advanced fuel designs that incorporate thinner fuel UO2 pellets interspaced by high thermal conductivity inserts have been proposed, with the primary goals of reducing peak centerline temperatures and temperature gradients across fuel pellets and enhancing heat transfer from the fuel to the coolant. An initial series of experiments has been performed on this design, including laboratory experiments and a series of experiments using the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility, the latter of which compared thermal gradient driven fracture of standard pellet designs with that in the proposed advanced fuel design. Although reducing fracture is not the primary objective of the new fuel design, the lower thermal gradients are expected to reduce fracture, so it can serve as an indicator of the thermal behavior of this fuel in the reactor. The in-reactor tests were conducted at multiple linear heat generation rates and confirm the expected result that fracture in both the standard and advanced fuel pellets occurs during the first ramp to power in standard light-water reactor conditions. Post-irradiation examination of the experiment material was performed and included quantification of the extent of fracture in the fuel pellets. It was found that the advanced-design pellets reduce the extent of fracture in a statistically significant way. This confirms the expected behavior predicted by two-dimensional axisymmetric models of this experiment. Here in this study is an important first experimental confirmation of the efficacy of the proposed inserts for achieving their desired effect on the thermal behavior of the fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward a Diverse Next-Generation Energy Workforce: Teaching Artificial Photosynthesis and Electrochemistry in Elementary Schools through Active Learning

Artificial photosynthesis is a promising approach to generate commodity chemicals using abundant chemical feedstocks and renewable energy sources. Despite its importance, affordable and effective hands-on classroom activities that demonstrate artificial photosynthesis and teach key concepts, especially for primary school students, are lacking. Educating young students on this topic is a critical step in the development of the next-generation energy workforce, especially one that is diverse in race and gender. Here, we hypothesize that an effective approach to educate a broad range of young students on the topic of artificial photosynthesis is through the use of an active learning-based lesson plan that employs cheap and accessible materials. This hypothesis is confirmed by evaluating the understanding of fifth grade students with a survey before and after a lesson plan on artificial photosynthesis that uses active-learning techniques and uses safe and highly accessible materials (baking soda, tap water, plastic jars, Ni coil, alligator clips, and a solar cell) to perform solar-powered water splitting. The lesson plan and survey questions are designed to align with the educational outcomes for fifth grade classrooms in California and to address four general learning objectives: (1) Motivations of Artificial Photosynthesis, (2) Applications of Artificial Photosynthesis, (3) Inputs and Outputs of Artificial Photosynthesis, and (4) Engineering Design for Artificial Photosynthesis. The survey data demonstrate a statistically significant improvement in overall student understanding from the lesson plan. Importantly, the data show that the lesson plan presented here is effective at narrowing the performance gap between minority students and overly represented groups.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimal binning of correlated measurements

Experimental measurements are commonly represented on a discrete grid, requiring a balance between granularity and statistical noise. Two strategies have traditionally been used to improve such representations: selecting an appropriate bin width to control discretization error and applying kernel-based smoothing to suppress fluctuations. Despite their shared goal, these approaches have largely developed independently, without a unified statistical description of how discretization and correlation jointly determine measurement precision. Here, we extend the discussion of optimal interval averaging to a correlation-aware setting by Gaussian process regression, which explicitly accounts for correlations among neighboring bins. Starting from first principles, we derive the mean-squared error of discretized measurements and obtain closed-form asymptotic expressions for the optimal bin width and correlation length. When recast in reduced variables, the theory reveals distinct universal scaling laws governing the error in the correlation-free and correlation-controlled regimes. Characterized by intrinsically smooth intensity profiles and counting-based statistics, neutron scattering measurements are well suited for demonstrating the enhanced error contraction enabled by inter-bin correlations. We show that such improvement is achievable over the experimentally accessible Q-range and across multiple instruments and material systems. These results show that explicitly accounting for correlations systematically reshapes the limits of precision in discretized, noise-limited measurements. More broadly, the framework provides a transferable statistical foundation for optimizing data representation, inference, and experimental design across the physical and data sciences.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗