Guiding riparian management in a transboundary watershed through high resolution spatial statistical network models
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The ability to differentiate between atmospheric radionuclide signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and signals from other sources, such as medical isotope-production facilities and nuclear reactors, can be critical to the detection and monitoring of unannounced, low-yield nuclear events. Signatures having anomalously high amplitudes, compared to background levels, remain the best indicator in screening for a UNE. However, isotopic composition can further validate a suspected UNE signature, but separation from any atmospheric background composition is first necessary. To date, evaluating the challenges of performing this separation has typically involved comparing an observed background with a highly idealized deterministic model of radioxenon signature production by a UNE that does not consider the influence of post-detonation chemical/physical processes in the detonation cavity or the subsequent gas transport mechanisms that can also affect the isotopic composition of the detected gas signature. In addition, purely deterministic models, as previously employed, overlook the uncertainty inherent in estimating critical parameters characterizing the UNE and its detonation environment. In this paper, we create detailed, multi-parameter models of radionuclide evolution using the widely accepted England and Rider post-detonation radionuclide decay-chain network coupled to detailed models simulating physical production and transport processes affecting the gas signature. Because these models are governed by uncertain parameters including barometric fluctuations, realistic ranges of variation for each of the parameters influencing isotopic composition are then defined. A Latin-Hypercube sampling approach is used to obtain a random distribution of isotopic production and gas transport results associated with a given value of each parameter. We apply these results to background histories of two stations, one providing 4-isotope background measurements and the other providing two-isotope measurements associated with the 2013 DPRK announced UNE.
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Here, we propose a new model for burst fission gas release induced by microcracking in ceramic nuclear fuels such as uranium dioxide. The model stipulates that the densities of defects in the fuel material, such as microcracks and fission gas bubbles on grain boundaries, evolve in accordance with the second law of thermodynamics. Central to the model is the notion of an effective temperature, conjugate to the configurational entropy of the fuel material, and directly linked to the burnup. The model predicts that microcracking, driven by the internal stress state of the fuel material, reduces the bubble storage capacity of grain boundaries, and accounts for burst fission gas release during rapid temperature transients that simulate power transients, reactor startup, and loss-of-coolant accident conditions.
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Obtaining high quality data reflecting the relationships between the additive manufacturing (AM) process parameters, material microstructure and mechanical properties is crucial for the use of machine learning in AM. A database of over 4,000 data entries of metal AM was created thanks to a large number of literature studies on key process parameters and indicators of build quality. Meta-analysis reveals critical biases in the literature. Firstly, majority of studies report only high quality builds, these imbalances in reporting result in weak correlation between process parameters, properties and consolidation, limiting the ability of machine learning models to generalize beyond optimized conditions. Nevertheless, the trained models accurately predict yield strength ($R^2 = 0.85$), suggesting that certain process–property relationships are effectively captured within these models. Secondly, quantitative microstructural data are largely absent, limiting the learning of the microstructure-mechanical properties relationships. Finally, current process window identification is based largely on the consolidation, despite significant uncertainty in its measurement. It is important to identify the process map on the basis of not only the consolidation, but also mechanical behaviour under loading. Such a identification shows that 316 L and Inconel have much larger process map (i.e. highly printable) in comparison to the AlSi10Mg and Ti6Al4V.
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