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NASA NTRS1979

A scheme for computing surface fluxes from mean flow observations

A computational method for estimating turbulent surface stress, sensible heat flux, and humidity flux from mean velocity, temperature, and humidity at a single height in the atmospheric surface layer is presented. The method is based on coupling a Monin-Obukhov similarity profile to a 'force-restore' formulation for the evolution of surface soil temperature to yield the local values of shear stress, heat flux, and surface temperature. In addition to reference-level mean flow properties, the parameters required to implement this method are the thermal heat capacity of the soil, the surface aerodynamic roughness, latitude, solar declination, surface albedo, surface emissivity, and atmospheric transmissivity. Sample calculations are presented for (1) constant atmospheric forcing at the reference level, and (2) variable atmospheric forcing corresponding to Kahle's (1977) measurements of windspeed, air temperature, and radiometer soil surface temperature under dry vegetatively sparse conditions in the Mohave Desert, Calif.

Hoffert, M. I.↗

DOE OSTI2021

The updated ITPA global H-mode confinement database: description and analysis

The multi-machine ITPA Global H-mode Confinement Database has been upgraded with new data from JET with the ITER-like wall and ASDEX Upgrade with the full tungsten wall. This paper describes the new database and presents results of regression analysis to estimate the global energy confinement scaling in H-mode plasmas using a standard power law. Various subsets of the database are considered, focusing on type of wall and divertor materials, confinement regime (all H-modes, ELMy H or ELM-free) and ITER-like constraints. Apart from ordinary least squares, two other, robust regression techniques are applied, which take into account uncertainty on all variables. Regression on data from individual devices shows that, generally, the confinement dependence on density and the power degradation are weakest in the fully metallic devices. Using the multi-machine scalings, predictions are made of the confinement time in a standard ELMy H-mode scenario in ITER. The uncertainty on the scaling parameters is discussed with a view to practically useful error bars on the parameters and predictions. One of the derived scalings for ELMy H-modes on an ITER-like subset is studied in particular and compared to the IPB98(y,2) confinement scaling in engineering and dimensionless form. Transformation of this new scaling from engineering variables to dimensionless quantities is shown to result in large error bars on the dimensionless scaling. Regression analysis in the space of dimensionless variables is therefore proposed as an alternative, yielding acceptable estimates for the dimensionless scaling. The new scaling, which is dimensionally correct within the uncertainties, suggests that some dependencies of confinement in the multi- machine database can be reconciled with parameter scans in individual devices. This includes vanishingly small dependence of confinement on line-averaged density and normalized plasma pressure (β), as well as a noticeable, positive dependence on effective atomic mass and plasma triangularity. Extrapolation of this scaling to ITER yields a somewhat lower confinement time compared to the IPB98(y, 2) prediction, possibly related to the considerably weaker dependence on major radius in the new scaling (slightly above linear). Further studies are needed to compare more flexible regression models with the power law used here. In addition, data from more devices concerning possible ‘hidden variables’ could help to determine their influence on confinement, while adding data in sparsely populated areas of the parameter space may contribute to further disentangling some of the global confinement dependencies in tokamak plasmas.

Database↗

NASA NTRS2006

Alpha-Voltaic Sources Using Diamond as Conversion Medium

A family of proposed miniature sources of power would exploit the direct conversion of the kinetic energy of a particles into electricity in diamond semiconductor diodes. These power sources would function over a wide range of temperatures encountered in terrestrial and outer-space environments. These sources are expected to have operational lifetimes of 10 to 20 years and energy conversion efficiencies >35 percent. A power source according to the proposal would include a pair of devices like that shown in the figure. Each device would contain Schottky and p/n diode devices made from high-band-gap, radiation-hard diamond substrates. The n and p layers in the diode portion would be doped sparsely (<1014 cm-3) in order to maximize the volume of the depletion region and thereby maximize efficiency. The diode layers would be supported by an undoped diamond substrate. The source of a particles would be a thin film of 244Cm (half-life 18 years) sandwiched between the two paired devices. The sandwich arrangement would force almost every a particle to go through the active volume of at least one of the devices. Typical a particle track lengths in the devices would range from 20 to 30 microns. The a particles would be made to stop only in the undoped substrates to prevent damage to the crystalline structures of the diode portions. The overall dimensions of a typical source are expected to be about 2 by 2 by 1 mm. Assuming an initial 244Cm mass of 20 mg, the estimated initial output of the source is 20 mW (a current of 20 mA at a potential of 1 V).

Patel, Jagadish U.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Assessing Disaggregated SMAP Soil Moisture Products in the United States

A soil moisture (SM) disaggregation algorithm based on thermal inertia (TI) theory was implemented to downscale the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Enhanced product(SPL2SMPE) from 9 km to 1 km over the continental United States. The algorithm applies land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at higher spatial resolution to estimate relative soil wetness within a coarse SMAP grid -this MODIS-derived relative wetness is then used to produce the downscaled SMAP SM. Results from the algorithm were evaluated in terms of their spatiotemporal coverage and accuracy using in situ measurements from SMAP Core Validation Sites (CVS), the US Department of Agriculture Soil Climate Analysis Network (USDA-SCAN), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Reference Network(NOAA-CRN). Results were also compared with the baselineSPL2SMPE and the SMAP/Sentinel-1 (SPL2SMAPS) 1kmproduct. Overall, the unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE)of the disaggregated SM at the CVS using the TI approach is approximately 0.04 m3=m3, which is the SMAP mission requirement for the baseline products. The TI approach out performs the SMAP/Sentinel SL2SMAPS 1km product by approximately0.02 m3=m3. Over the agriculture/crop areas from SCAN and CRN sparse network stations, the TI approach exhibits better ubRMSE compared to SPL2SMPE andSPL2SMAPS byabout0.01 and 0.02 m3=m3, indicating its advantage in these areas. However, a drawback of this approach is that there are data gaps due to cloud cover as optical sensors cannot have a clear view of the land surface.

Soil moisture↗

NASA NTRS1980

A hill-sliding strategy for initialization of Gaussian clusters in the multidimensional space

A hill sliding technique was devised to extract Gaussian clusters from the multivariate probability density estimate of sample data for the first step of iterative unsupervised classification. Each cluster was assumed to posses a unimodal normal distribution. A clustering function proposed distinguished elements of a cluster under formation from the rest in the feature space. Initial clusters were extracted one by one according to the hill sliding tactics. A dimensionless cluster compactness parameter was proposed as a universal measure of cluster goodness and used satisfactorily in test runs with LANDSAT multispectral scanner data. The normalized divergence, defined by the cluster divergence divided by the entropy of the entire sample data, was utilized as a general separability measure between clusters. An overall clustering objective function was set forth in terms of cluster covariance matrices, from which the cluster compactness measure could be deduced. Minimal improvement of initial data partitioning was evaluated by this objective function in eliminating scattered sparse data points. The hill sliding clustering technique developed herein has the potential applicability to decomposition any multivariate mixture distribution into a number of unimodal distributions when an appropriate distribution function to the data set is employed.

Park, J. K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Optical Characterisation of Suspended Particles in the Mackenzie River Plume (Canadian Arctic Ocean) and Implications for Ocean Colour Remote Sensing

Climate change significantly impacts Arctic shelf regions in terms of air temperature, ultraviolet radiation, melting of sea ice, precipitation, thawing of permafrost and coastal erosion. Direct consequences have been observed on the increasing Arctic river flow and a large amount of organic carbon sequestered in soils at high latitudes since the last glacial maximum can be expected to be delivered to the Arctic Ocean during the coming decade. Monitoring the fluxes and fate of this terrigenous organic carbon is problematic in such sparsely populated regions unless remote sensing techniques can be developed and proved to be operational. The main objective of this study is to develop an ocean colour algorithm to operationally monitor dynamics of suspended particulate matter (SPM) on the Mackenzie River continental shelf (Canadian Arctic Ocean) using satellite imagery. The water optical properties are documented across the study area and related to concentrations of SPM and particulate organic carbon (POC). Robust SPM and POC : SPM proxies are identified, such as the light backscattering and attenuation coefficients, and relationships are established between these optical and biogeochemical parameters. Following a semi-analytical approach, a regional SPM quantification relationship is obtained for the inversion of the water reflectance signal into SPM concentration. This relationship is reproduced based on independent field optical measurements. It is successfully applied to a selection of MODIS satellite data which allow estimating fluxes at the river mouth and monitoring the extension and dynamics of the Mackenzie River surface plume in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Good agreement is obtained with field observations representative of the whole water column in the river delta zone where terrigenous SPM is mainly constrained (out of short periods of maximum river outflow). Most of the seaward export of SPM is observed to occur within the west side of the river mouth. Future work will require the validation of the developed SPM regional algorithm based on match-ups with field measurements, then the routine application to ocean colour satellite data in order to better estimate the fluxes and fate of SPM and POC delivered by the Mackenzie River to the Arctic Ocean.

Mackenzie River plume↗

NASA NTRS2014

How Accurate is Land/Ocean Moisture Transport Variability in Reanalyses?

Quantifying the global hydrological cycle and its variability across various time scales remains a challenge to the climate community. Direct measurements of evaporation (E), evapotranspiration (ET), and precipitation (P) are not feasible on a global scale, nor is the transport of water vapor over the global oceans and sparsely populated land areas. Expanding satellite data streams have enabled development of various water (and energy) flux products, complementing reanalyses and facilitating observationally constrained modeling. But the evolution of the global observing system has produced additional complications--improvements in satellite sensor resolution and accuracy have resulted in "epochs" of observational quasi-uniformity that can adversely affect reanalysis trends. In this work we focus on vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VMFC) variations within the period 1979 - present integrated over global land. We show that VMFC in recent reanalyses (e.g. ERA-I, NASA MERRA, NOAA CFSR and JRA55) suffers from observing system changes, though differently in each product. Land Surface Models (LSMs) forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology share closely the interannual P-ET variations of the reanalyses associated with ENSO events. (VMFC over land and P-ET estimates are equivalent quantities since atmospheric storage changes are small on these scales.) But the long-term LSM trend over the period since 1979 is approximately one-fourth that of the reanalyses. Additional reduced observation reanalyses assimilating only surface pressure and /or specifying seasurface temperature also have a much smaller trend in P-ET like the LSMs. We explore the regional manifestation of the reanalysis P-ET / VMFC problems, particularly over land. Both principal component analysis and a simple time series changepoint analysis highlight problems associated with data poor regions such as Equatorial Africa and, for one reanalysis, the Equatorial Andes region. Onset of the availability of passive microwave Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) moisture data in July 1987 and the transition from the Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) to an advanced version (AMSU) have significant impacts on VMFC variability. Simple accounting for these errors of leading importance results in modified reanalysis VMFC estimates that agree much better with the LSM results. Regional details of the modified reanalysis VMFC and LSM P-ET are related to changes in Pacific Decadal Variability as manifest in SST changes after the late 1990s.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Updated Process for Automated Deepspace Conjunction Assessment

There is currently a high level of interest in the areas of conjunction assessment and collision avoidance from organizations conducting space operations. Current conjunction assessment activity is mainly focused on spacecraft and debris in the Earth orbital environment [1]. However, collisions are possible in other orbital environments as well [2]. This paper will focus on the current operations of and recent updates to the Multimission Automated Deep Space Conjunction Assessment Process (MADCAP) used at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory for NASA to perform conjunction assessment at Mars and the Moon. Various space agencies have satellites in orbit at Mars and the Moon with additional future missions planned. The consequences of collisions are catastrophically high. Intuitive notions predict low probability of collisions in these sparsely populated environments, but may be inaccurate due to several factors. Orbits of scientific interest often tend to have similar characteristics as do the orbits of spacecraft that provide a communications relay for surface missions. The MADCAP process is controlled by an automated scheduler which initializes analysis based on a set timetable or the appearance of new ephemeris files either locally or on the Deep Space Network (DSN) Portal. The process then generates and communicates reports which are used to facilitate collision avoidance decisions. The paper also describes the operational experience and utilization of the automated tool during periods of high activity and interest such as: the close approaches of NASA's Lunar Atmosphere & Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) during the LADEE mission. In addition, special consideration was required for the treatment of missions with rapidly varying orbits and less reliable long term downtrack estimates; in particular this was necessitated by perturbations to MAVEN's orbit induced by the Martian atmosphere. The application of special techniques to non-operational spacecraft with large uncertainties is also studied. Areas for future work are also described. Although the applications discussed in this paper are in the Martian and Lunar environments, the techniques are not unique to these bodies and could be applied to other orbital environments.

collision↗

NASA NTRS1989

The inverse gravimetric problem in gravity modelling

One of the main purposes of geodesy is to determine the gravity field of the Earth in the space outside its physical surface. This purpose can be pursued without any particular knowledge of the internal density even if the exact shape of the physical surface of the Earth is not known, though this seems to entangle the two domains, as it was in the old Stoke's theory before the appearance of Molodensky's approach. Nevertheless, even when large, dense and homogeneous data sets are available, it was always recognized that subtracting from the gravity field the effect of the outer layer of the masses (topographic effect) yields a much smoother field. This is obviously more important when a sparse data set is bad so that any smoothing of the gravity field helps in interpolating between the data without raising the modeling error, this approach is generally followed because it has become very cheap in terms of computing time since the appearance of spectral techniques. The mathematical description of the Inverse Gravimetric Problem (IGP) is dominated mainly by two principles, which in loose terms can be formulated as follows: the knowledge of the external gravity field determines mainly the lateral variations of the density; and the deeper the density anomaly giving rise to a gravity anomaly, the more improperly posed is the problem of recovering the former from the latter. The statistical relation between rho and n (and its inverse) is also investigated in its general form, proving that degree cross-covariances have to be introduced to describe the behavior of rho. The problem of the simultaneous estimate of a spherical anomalous potential and of the external, topographic masses is addressed criticizing the choice of the mixed collection approach.

Sanso, F.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Interferometric SAR modelling of near surface data to improve geological model in the Surat Basin, Australia

Here we present a study on geophysical inverse modelling for subsurface structural properties of an unconventional hydrocarbon site that was monitored previously by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology for surface deformation. A static three-dimensional geomodel along with extracted property maps replicates the depth of each underlying stratigraphic unit and structural feature with the density of each geological layer. We examine the hypothesis that integration of elastic properties of each formation layer with InSAR observations in a stratified elastic medium will lead to a viscoelastic geophysical inverse problem that can be solved to estimate fractional volume change at the reservoir level. Moreover, we examine synthetic scenarios in which the elastic properties of the formations are perturbed before determining the resulting impact on the rate of surface deformation. The results show that although the slope of underlying formations, their density and depth can define the extent and pattern of a deformation signal, their properties have a marginal impact on volumetric change compared to the dense network of shallow depth Coal Seam Gas (CSG) mining wells. Besides, it is also demonstrated that the inversion of InSAR deformation maps can resolve the uncertainties associated with low-resolution seismic interpretation as well as filling the data gaps within seismic acquisitions. A significant contribution of this investigation to the geological basin modelling involves a) introducing a remote and non-invasive technology such as InSAR to improve geophysical mapping of subsurface structures such as faults in areas with sparse or no reflective seismic information, and b) applying a multi-layer viscoelastic geophysical source model for an unconventional hydrocarbon reservoir such as CSG.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Middle Atmosphere Transport Properties of Assimilated Datasets

One of the most compelling reasons for performing data assimilation in the middle atmosphere is to obtain global, balanced datasets for studies of trace gas transport and chemistry. This is a major motivation behind the Goddard Earth observation System-Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS). Previous studies have shown that while this and other data assimilation systems can generally obtain good estimates of the extratropical rotational velocity field, the divergent part of the dynamical field is deficient; this impacts the "residual circulation" and leads to spurious trace gas transport on seasonal and interannual timescales. These problems are impacted by the quality and the method of use of the observational data and by deficiencies in the atmospheric general circulation model. Whichever the cause at any place and time, the "solution" is to introduce non-physical forcing terms into the system (the so-called incremental analysis updates); these can directly (thermal) or indirectly (mechanical) affect the residual circulation. This paper will illustrate how the divergent circulation is affected by deficiencies in both observations and models. Theoretical considerations will be illustrated with examples from the GEOS-DAS and from simplified numerical experiments. These are designed to isolate known problems, such as the inability of models to sustain a quasi-biennial oscillation and sparse observational constraints on tropical dynamics, or radiative inconsistencies in the presence of volcanic aerosols.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS1999

Middle Atmospheric Transport Properties of Assimilated Datasets

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2018

Quantifying Boreal Forest Structure and Composition Using UAV Structure from Motion

The vast extent and inaccessibility of boreal forest ecosystems are barriers to routine monitoring of forest structure and composition. In this research, we bridge the scale gap between intensive but sparse plot measurements and extensive remote sensing studies by collecting forest inventory variables at the plot scale using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a structure from motion (SfM) approach. At 20 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) subplots in interior Alaska, we acquired overlapping imagery and generated dense, 3D, RGB (red, green, blue) point clouds. We used these data to model forest type at the individual crown scale as well as subplot-scale tree density (TD), basal area (BA), and aboveground biomass (AGB). We achieved 85% cross-validation accuracy for five species at the crown level. Classification accuracy was maximized using three variables representing crown height, form, and color. Consistent with previous UAV-based studies, SfM point cloud data generated robust models of TD (r(sup 2) = 0.91), BA (r(sup 2) = 0.79), and AGB (r(sup 2) = 0.92), using a mix of plot- and crown-scale information. Precise estimation of TD required either segment counts or species information to differentiate black spruce from mixed white spruce plots. The accuracy of species-specific estimates of TD, BA, and AGB at the plot scale was somewhat variable, ranging from accurate estimates of black spruce TD (+/−1%) and aspen BA (−2%) to misallocation of aspen AGB (+118%) and white spruce AGB (−50%). These results convey the potential utility of SfM data for forest type discrimination in FIA plots and the remaining challenges to develop classification approaches for species-specific estimates at the plot scale that are more robust to segmentation error.

aboveground biomass↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Phase curves of small bodies from the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog

Extensive photometric surveys continue to produce enormous stores of data on small bodies. These data are typically sparsely obtained at arbitrary (or unknown) rotational phases. Therefore, new methods for processing such data need to be developed to make the most of these vast catalogs. We aim to produce a method of recreating the phase curves of small bodies by considering the uncertainties introduced by the nominal errors in the magnitudes and the effect introduced by rotational variations. Here, we use the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog data as a benchmark to construct phase curves of all small bodies in u', g', r', i', and z' filters. From the phase curves, we obtain the absolute magnitudes and we use them to set up the absolute colors, which are the colors of the asteroids that are not affected by changes in the phase angle. We selected objects with ≥3 observations taken in at least one filter and spanning over a minimum of 5 degrees in the phase angle. We developed a method that combines Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian inference to estimate the absolute magnitudes using the HG 12 * photometric system. We obtained almost 15 000 phase curves, with about 12 000 of these including all five filters. The absolute magnitudes and absolute colors are compatible with previously published data that support our method. The method we developed is fully automatic and well suited for a run based on large amounts of data. Moreover, it includes the nominal uncertainties in the magnitudes and the whole distribution of possible rotational states of the objects producing what are possibly less precise values, that is, larger uncertainties, but more accurate, namely, closer to the actual value. To our knowledge, this work is the first to include the effect of rotational variations in such a manner.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sparse Bayesian mass mapping with uncertainties: hypothesis testing of structure

ABSTRACT A crucial aspect of mass mapping, via weak lensing, is quantification of the uncertainty introduced during the reconstruction process. Properly accounting for these errors has been largely ignored to date. We present a new method to reconstruct maximum a posteriori (MAP) convergence maps by formulating an unconstrained Bayesian inference problem with Laplace-type l1-norm sparsity-promoting priors, which we solve via convex optimization. Approaching mass mapping in this manner allows us to exploit recent developments in probability concentration theory to infer theoretically conservative uncertainties for our MAP reconstructions, without relying on assumptions of Gaussianity. For the first time, these methods allow us to perform hypothesis testing of structure, from which it is possible to distinguish between physical objects and artefacts of the reconstruction. Here, we present this new formalism, and demonstrate the method on simulations, before applying the developed formalism to two observational data sets of the Abell 520 cluster. Initial reconstructions of the Abell 520 catalogues reported the detection of an anomalous ‘dark core’ – an overdense region with no optical counterpart – which was taken to be evidence for self-interacting dark matter. In our Bayesian framework, it is found that neither Abell 520 data set can conclusively determine the physicality of such dark cores at $99{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence. However, in both cases the recovered MAP estimators are consistent with both sets of data.

Price, M. A.↗