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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Infrared spectroscopy of a Cygnus A - Implications for the obscured active nucleus

Near-infrared spectroscopic observations of the central regions of the luminous radio galaxy Cygnus A are presented and interpreted in terms of an obscured quasar nucleus. Strong emission is detected in the molecular hydrogen lines 1-0 S(1) and 1-0 S(3), the strengths of which are accounted for through heating by the nuclear hard X-ray source. The large equivalent widths of these molecular hydrogen lines and the near-infrared narrow hydrogen recombination lines suggest that the observed nuclear continuum is strongly attenuated at 2 microns. The observed upper limit to the flux of broad Pa-alpha implies an extinction to the putative broad line region AV(BL) of at least 24 mag, and the observed continuum intensity of the nuclear point source at 2.2 microns gives an extinction of 43 +/-9 mag toward the optical-infrared continuum. These estimates are consistent with the gas column density inferred from the low-energy X-ray cutoff. Strong forbidden Si VI 1.962-micron line emission from Cygnus A is also reported.

Ward, Martin J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

LSTM-Based Data Integration to Improve Snow Water Equivalent Prediction and Diagnose Error Sources

Accurate prediction of snow water equivalent (SWE) can be valuable for water resource managers. Recently, deep learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) have exhibited high accuracy in simulating hydrologic variables and can integrate lagged observations to improve prediction, but their benefits were not clear for SWE simulations. Here we tested an LSTM network with data integration (DI) for SWE in the western United States to integrate 30-day-lagged or 7-day-lagged observations of either SWE or satellite-observed snow cover fraction (SCF) to improve future predictions. SCF proved beneficial only for shallow-snow sites during snowmelt, while lagged SWE integration significantly improved prediction accuracy for both shallow- and deep-snow sites. The median Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) in temporal testing improved from 0.92 to 0.97 with 30-day-lagged SWE integration, and root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the difference between estimated and observed peak SWE values d max were reduced by 41% and 57%, respectively. DI effectively mitigated accumulated model and forcing errors that would otherwise be persistent. Moreover, by applying DI to different observations (30-day-lagged, 7-day-lagged), we revealed the spatial distribution of errors with different persistent lengths. For example, integrating 30-day-lagged SWE was ineffective for ephemeral snow sites in the southwestern United States, but significantly reduced monthly-scale biases for regions with stable seasonal snowpack such as high-elevation sites in California. These biases are likely attributable to large interannual variability in snowfall or site-specific snow redistribution patterns that can accumulate to impactful levels over time for nonephemeral sites. These results set up benchmark levels and provide guidance for future model improvement strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Galactic fine-structure lines - Morphologies of the warm ionized interstellar medium

Far-infrared ionic fine-structure emission lines associated with the large-scale structure of the Galactic ionized medium are interpreted in terms of a heuristic model in which three distinct source morphologies are considered: ionization-bounded H II regions, an extended, low-density medium, and externally ionized surfaces of neutral clouds. The model reveals that the overall luminosity of the Galaxy in the fine-structure lines of both C II and N II is due, in comparable proportions, to diffuse medium and the boundaries between ionized and neutral regions. Limits are set on the luminosity of the diffuse component in the plane of the Galaxy. Some individual lines of sight of the COBE FIRAS instrument are dominated, in these spectral lines, by H II regions, even with its 7 deg field of view. Average densities of both H II regions and photodissociation regions are estimated on a Galactic scale.

Petuchowski, S. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK X. Planck Low Frequency Instrument frequency maps with sample-based error propagation

We present Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) frequency sky maps derived within the BEYONDPLANCK framework. This framework draws samples from a global posterior distribution that includes instrumental, astrophysical, and cosmological parameters, and the main product is an entire ensemble of frequency sky map samples, each of which corresponds to one possible realization of the various modeled instrumental systematic corrections, including correlated noise, time-variable gain, as well as far sidelobe and bandpass corrections. This ensemble allows for computationally convenient end-to-end propagation of low-level instrumental uncertainties into higher-level science products, including astrophysical component maps, angular power spectra, and cosmological parameters. We show that the two dominant sources of LFI instrumental systematic uncertainties are correlated noise and gain fluctuations, and the products presented here support – for the first time – full Bayesian error propagation for these effects at full angular resolution. We compared our posterior mean maps with traditional frequency maps delivered by the Planck Collaboration, and find generally good agreement. The most important quality improvement is due to significantly lower calibration uncertainties in the new processing, as we find a fractional absolute calibration uncertainty at 70 GHz of Δg 0 /g 0 = 5 x 10 -5 , which is nominally 40 times smaller than that reported by Planck 2018. However, we also note that the original Planck 2018 estimate has a nontrivial statistical interpretation, and this further illustrates the advantage of the new framework in terms of producing self-consistent and well-defined error estimates of all involved quantities without the need of ad hoc uncertainty contributions. We describe how low-resolution data products, including dense pixel-pixel covariance matrices, may be produced from the posterior samples directly, without the need for computationally expensive analytic calculations or simulations. We conclude that posterior-based frequency map sampling provides unique capabilities in terms of low-level systematics modeling and error propagation, and may play an important role for future Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) B-mode experiments aiming at nanokelvin precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1995

A new method of presentation the large-scale magnetic field structure on the Sun and solar corona

The large-scale photospheric magnetic field, measured at Stanford, has been analyzed in terms of surface harmonics. Changes of the photospheric field which occur within whole solar rotation period can be resolved by this analysis. For this reason we used daily magnetograms of the line-of-sight magnetic field component observed from Earth over solar disc. We have estimated the period during which day-to-day full disc magnetograms must be collected. An original algorithm was applied to resolve time variations of spherical harmonics that reflect time evolution of large-scale magnetic field within solar rotation period. This method of magnetic field presentation can be useful enough in lack of direct magnetograph observations due to sometimes bad weather conditions. We have used the calculated surface harmonics to reconstruct the large-scale magnetic field structure on the source surface near the sun - the origin of heliospheric current sheet and solar wind streams. The obtained results have been compared with spacecraft in situ observations and geomagnetic activity. We tried to show that proposed technique can trace shon-time variations of heliospheric current sheet and short-lived solar wind streams. We have compared also our results with those obtained traditionally from potential field approximation and extrapolation using synoptic charts as initial boundary conditions.

Ponyavin, D. I.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assimilation of multiple datasets results in large differences in regional- to global-scale NEE and GPP budgets simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model

In spite of the importance of land ecosystems in offsetting carbon dioxide emissions released by anthropogenic activities into the atmosphere, the spatiotemporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon fluxes remain largely uncertain at regional to global scales. Over the past decade, data assimilation (DA) techniques have grown in importance for improving these fluxes simulated by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), by optimizing model parameter values while also pinpointing possible parameterization deficiencies. Although the joint assimilation of multiple data streams is expected to constrain a wider range of model processes, their actual benefits in terms of reduction in model uncertainty are still under-researched, also given the technical challenges. In this study, we investigated with a consistent DA framework and the ORCHIDEE-LMDz TBM–atmosphere model how the assimilation of different combinations of data streams may result in different regional to global carbon budgets. To do so, we performed comprehensive DA experiments where three datasets (in situ measurements of net carbon exchange and latent heat fluxes, spaceborne estimates of the normalized difference vegetation index, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration data measured at stations) were assimilated alone or simultaneously. We thus evaluated their complementarity and usefulness to constrain net and gross C land fluxes. We found that a major challenge in improving the spatial distribution of the land C sinks and sources with atmospheric CO 2 data relates to the correction of the soil carbon imbalance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Preliminary assessment of rover power systems for the Mars Rover Sample Return Mission

Four isotope power system concepts were presented and compared on a common basis for application to on-board electrical prime power for an autonomous planetary rover vehicle. A representative design point corresponding to the Mars Rover Sample Return (MRSR) preliminary mission requirements (500 W) was selected for comparison purposes. All systems concepts utilize the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) isotope heat source developed by DOE. Two of the concepts employ thermoelectric (TE) conversion: one using the GPHS Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG) used as a reference case, the other using an advanced RTG with improved thermoelectric materials. The other two concepts employed are dynamic isotope power systems (DIPS): one using a closed Brayton cycle (CBC) turboalternator, and the other using a free piston Stirling cycle engine/linear alternator (FPSE) with integrated heat source/heater head. Near term technology levels have been assumed for concept characterization using component technology figure-of-merit values taken from the published literature. For example, the CBC characterization draws from the historical test database accumulated from space Brayton cycle subsystems and components from the NASA B engine through the mini-Brayton rotating unit. TE system performance is estimated from Voyager/multihundred Watt (MHW)-RTG flight experience through Mod-RTG performance estimates considering recent advances in TE materials under the DOD/DOE/NASA SP-100 and NASA Committee on Scientific and Technological Information programs. The Stirling DIPS system is characterized from scaled-down Space Power Demonstrator Engine (SPDE) data using the GPHS directly incorporated into the heater head. The characterization/comparison results presented here differ from previous comparison of isotope power (made for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) applications) because of the elevated background temperature on the Martian surface compared to LEO, and the higher sensitivity of dynamic systems to elevated sink temperature. The mass advantage of dynamic systems is significantly reduced for this application due to Mars' elevated background temperature.

Bents, David J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Interhemispheric asymmetry of the high-latitude ionospheric convection pattern

The assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics technique has been used to derive the large-scale high-latitude ionospheric convection patterns simultaneously in both northern and southern hemispheres during the period of January 27 to 29, 1992. When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(sub z) component is negative, the convection patterns in the southern hemisphere are basically the mirror images of those in the northern hemisphere. The total cross-polar cap potential drops in the two hemispheres are similar. When B(sub z) is positive and absolute value of B(sub y) greater than B(sub z), the convection configurations are mainly determined by B(sub y) and they may appear as normal 'two-cell' patterns in both hemispheres much as one would expect under southward IMF conditions. However, there is a significant difference in the cross-polar-cap potential drop between the two hemispheres, with the potential drop in the southern (summer) hemisphere over 50% larger than that in the northern (winter) hemisphere. As the ratio of absolute value of B(sub y)/B(sub z) decreases (less than one), the convection configuration in the two hemispheres may be significantly different, with reverse convection in the southern hemisphere and weak but disturbed convection in the northern hemisphere. By comparing the convection patterns with the corresponding spectrograms of precipitating particles, we interpret the convection patterns in terms of the concept of merging cells, lobe cells, and viscous cells. Estimates of the ' merging cell' potential drops, that is, the potential ascribed to the opening of the dayside field lines, are usually comparable between the two hemispheres, as they should be. The 'lobe cell' provides a potential between 8.5 and 26 kV and can differ greatly between hemispheres, as predicted. Lobe cells can be significant even for southward IMF, if absolute value of B(sub y) greater than the absolute value of B(sub z). To estimate the potential drop of the 'viscous cells,' we assume that the low-latitude boundary layer is on closed field lines. We find that this potential drop varies from case to case, with a typical value of 10 kV. If the source of these cells is truly a viscous interaction at the flank of the magnetopause, the process is likely spatially and temporally varying rather than steady state.

Lu, G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Preliminary assessment of rover power systems for the Mars Rover Sample Return Mission

Four isotope power system concepts were presented and compared on a common basis for application to on-board electrical prime power for an autonomous planetary rover vehicle. A representative design point corresponding to the Mars Rover Sample Return (MRSR) preliminary mission requirements (500 W) was selected for comparison purposes. All systems concepts utilize the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) isotope heat source developed by DOE. Two of the concepts employ thermoelectric (TE) conversion: one using the GPHS Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG) used as a reference case, the other using an advanced RTG with improved thermoelectric materials. The other two concepts employed are dynamic isotope power systems (DIPS): one using a closed Brayton cycle (CBC) turboalternator, and the other using a free piston Stirling cycle engine/linear alternator (FPSE) with integrated heat source/heater head. Near-term technology levels have been assumed for concept characterization using component technology figure-of-merit values taken from the published literature. For example, the CBC characterization draws from the historical test database accumulated from space Brayton cycle subsystems and components from the NASA B engine through the mini-Brayton rotating unit. TE system performance is estimated from Voyager/multihundred Watt (MHW)-RTG flight experience through Mod-RTG performance estimates considering recent advances in TE materials under the DOD/DOE/NASA SP-100 and NASA Committee on Scientific and Technological Information programs. The Stirling DIPS system is characterized from scaled-down Space Power Demonstrator Engine (SPDE) data using the GPHS directly incorporated into the heater head. The characterization/comparison results presented here differ from previous comparison of isotope power (made for LEO applications) because of the elevated background temperature on the Martian surface compared to LEO, and the higher sensitivity of dynamic systems to elevated s

Bents, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Implications of Lag-Luminosity Relationship for Unified GRB Paradigms

Spectral lags (tau(sub lag)) are deduced for 1437 long (T(sub 90) greater than 2 s) BATSE gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) with peak flux F(sub p) greater than 0.25 photons cm(sup -2)/s, near to the BATSE trigger threshold. The lags are modeled to approximate the observed distribution in the F(sub p)-T(sub lag) plane, realizing a noise-free representation. Assuming a two-branch lag-luminosity relationship, the lags are self-consistently corrected for cosmological effects to yield distributions in luminosity, distance, and redshift. The results have several consequences for GRB populations and for unified gamma-ray/afterglow scenarios which would account for afterglow break times and gamma-ray spectral evolution in terms of jet opening angle, viewing angle, or a profiled jet with variable Lorentz factor: A component of the burst sample is identified - those with few, wide pulses, lags of a few tenths to several seconds, and soft spectra - whose Log[N]-Log[F(sub p)] distribution approximates a -3/2 power-law, suggesting homogeneity and thus relatively nearby sources. The proportion of these long-lag bursts increases from negligible among bright BATSE bursts to approx. 50% at trigger threshold. Bursts with very long lags, approx. 1-2 less than tau(sub lag) (S) less than 10, show a tendency to concentrate near the Supergalactic Plane with a quadrupole moment of approx. -0.10 +/- 0.04. GRB 980425 (SN 1998bw) is a member of this subsample of approx. 90 bursts with estimated distances less than 100 Mpc. The frequency of the observed ultra-low luminosity bursts is approx. 1/4 that of SNe Ib/c within the same volume. If truly nearby, the core-collapse events associated with these GRBs might produce gravitational radiation detectable by LIGO-II. Such nearby bursts might also help explain flattening of the cosmic ray spectrum at ultra-high energies, as observed by AGASA.

Norris, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Dynamics and Control of a Disordered System in Space

In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of N grains in orbit, with N greater than 10(exp 3). These grains can be large (Cubesat-size) or small (mm-size), and can be active, i.e., a fully equipped vehicle capable sensing their own position and attitude, and enabled with propulsion means, or entirely passive. The ultimate objective would be to study the behavior of the single grains and of large ensembles of grains in orbit and to identify ways to guide and control the shape of a cloud composed of these grains so that it can perform a useful function in space, for instance, as an element of an optical imaging system for astrophysical applications. This concept, in which the aperture does not need to be continuous and monolithic, would increase the aperture size several times compared to large NASA observatories such as ATLAST, allowing for a true Terrestrial Planet Imager that would be able to resolve exo-planet details and do meaningful spectroscopy on distant world. In the paper, we address the modeling and autonomous operation of a distributed assembly (the cloud) of large numbers of highly miniaturized space-borne elements (the grains). A multi-scale, multi-physics model is proposed of the dynamics of the cloud in orbit, as well as a control law for cloud shape maintenance, and preliminary simulation studies yield an estimate of the computational effort, indicating a scale factor of approximately N(exp 1.4) as a function of the number of grains. A granular spacecraft can be defined as a collection of a large number of space-borne elements (in the 1000s) designed and controlled such that a desirable collective behavior emerges, either from the interactions among neighboring grains, and/or between the grains and the environment. In this paper, each grain is considered to be a highly miniaturized spacecraft which has limited size and mass, hence it has limited actuation, limited propulsive capability, limited power, limited sensing, limited communication, limited computational resources, limited range of motion, limited lifetime, and may be expendable. The modeling and dynamics of clouds of vehicles is more challenging than with conventional vehicles because we are faced with a probabilistic vehicle composed of a large number of physically disconnected vehicles. First, different scales of motion occur simultaneously in a cloud: translations and rotations of the cloud as a whole (macro-dynamics), relative rotation and translation of one cloud member with respect to another (meso-dynamics), and individual cloud member dynamics (micro-dynamics). Second, the control design needs to be tolerant of the system complexity, of the system architecture (centralized vs. decentralized large scale system control) as well as robust to un-modeled dynamics and noise sources. Figure 1, top left, shows the kinematic parameters of a 1000 element cloud in orbit. The motion of the system is described with respect to a local vertical-local horizontal (LV-LH) orbiting reference frame (x,y,z)=F(sub ORF) of origin O(sub ORF) which rotates with mean motion omega and orbital semi-major axis R(sub 0). The orbital geometry at the initial time is defined in terms of its six orbital elements, and the orbital dynamics equation for point O(sub ORF) is propagated forward in time under the influence of the gravitational field of the primary and other external perturbations, described below. The origin of this frame coincides with the initial position of the center of mass of the system, and the coordinate axes are z along the local vertical, x toward the flight direction, and y in the orbit normal direction. The assumptions we used to model the dynamics are as follows: 1) The inertial frame is fixed at Earth's center. 2) The orbiting Frame ORF follows Keplerian orbit. 3) the cloud system dynamics is referred to ORF. 4) the attitude of each grain uses the principal body frame as body fixed frame. 5) the atmosphere is assumed to be rigidly rotating with the Earth. Regarding the grains forming the cloud: 1) each grain is modeled as a rigid body; 2) a simple attitude estimator provides attitude estimates, 3) a simple guidance logic commands the position and attitude of each grain, 4) a simple local feedback controller based on PD control of local states is used to stabilize the attitude of the vehicle. Regarding the cloud: 1) the cloud as a whole is modeled as an equivalent rigid body in orbit, and 2) an associated graph establishes agent connectivity and enables coupling between modes of motion at the micro and macro scales; 3) a simple guidance and estimation logic is modeled to estimate and command the attitude of this equivalent rigid body; 4) a cloud shape maintenance controller is based on the dynamics of a stable virtual truss in the orbiting frame. Regarding the environmental perturbations acting on the cloud: 1) a non-spherical gravity field including JO (Earth's spherical field) zonal component, J2 (Earth's oblateness) and J3 zonal components is implemented; 2) atmospheric drag is modeled with an exponential model; 3) solar pressure is modeled assuming the Sun is inertially fixed; and 4) the Earth's magnetic field is model using an equivalent dipole model. The equations of motion are written in a referential system with respect to the origin of the orbiting frame and the state is propagated forward in time using an incremental predictor-corrector scheme. A representative cloud with varying number of grains is simulated to identify the limitations in computation time as the number of grains grows. We derive a control law to track a desired surface in the ORF (equivalently to maintain a reference cloud shape) by defining an error from a desired surface shape, and designing a control law that is exponentially stable and reduces the tracking error to zero. Figure 1 (top right) shows a comparison of various requirements for simulation of single spacecraft vs. granular spacecraft, indicating the high degree of complexity that needs to be taken into consideration. The ORF components of control force required by one of the grains is, for this particular case, in the micro-Newton range. However, no attempt has been made yet to reconfigure (or re-orient) the cloud configuration internally, for which forces in the milli-Newton level are expected, depending on the time required to do the reconfiguration. Figure 1, bottom, shows the computation time as a function of the number of grains, indicating an order N(exp 1.43) scaling on a 8 Gb, 1067 MHz RAM MacOSX computer with a 3.06 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor. With this metric, the same simulation for a system of N=1000 grains would take 5.4 hours, and 146 hours (i.e., 6 days) for a system with N=10,000 grains. Therefore, efficient ways to simulate this complex system, where not only the time scales of natural system dynamics, but also the sampling times of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control are included, remain to be explored. Additional details on the cloud modeling, dynamics, and control will be described in the paper.

simulation↗
DOE OSTI2020

BioSTEAMDevelopmentGroup/thermosteam

BioSTEAM is a fast and flexible package for the design, simulation, and techno-economic analysis of biorefineries under uncertainty. BioSTEAM’s framework is built to streamline and automate early-stage technology evaluations and to enable rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Complete biorefinery configurations are available at the Bioindustrial-Park GitHub repository, BioSTEAM’s premier repository for biorefinery models and results. The long-term growth and maintenance of BioSTEAM is supported through both community-led development and the research institutions invested in BioSTEAM. Through the open-source and community-lead platform, BioSTEAM aims to foster communication and transparency within the biorefinery research community for an integrated effort to expedite the evaluation of candidate biofuels and bioproducts. Additionally, an agile life cycle assessment (LCA) platform has been designed to interface with BioSTEAM, BioSTEAM-LCA. This open-source, installable package allows users to perform streamlined LCAs of biorefineries. The focus of BioSTEAM-LCA is to streamline and automate early-stage environmental impact analyses of processes and technologies, and to enable rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty analyses linking process design, performance, economics, and environmental impacts. ThermoSTEAM is a standalone thermodynamic engine capable of estimating mixture properties, solving thermodynamic phase equilibria, and modeling stoichiometric reactions. ThermoSTEAM builds upon chemicals, the chemical properties component of the Chemical Engineering Design Library, with a robust and flexible framework that facilitates the creation of property packages. The Biorefinery Simulation and Techno-Economic Analysis Modules (BioSTEAM) is dependent on ThermoSTEAM for the simulation of unit operations.

Cortes-Peña, Yoel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implications of Underground Nuclear Explosion Cavity Evolution for Radioxenon Isotopic Composition

Abstract Isotopic ratios of radioxenons sampled in the atmosphere or subsurface can be used to verify the occurrence of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE). Differences in the half-lives of radioactive xenon precursors and their decay-chain networks produce different time-dependent concentration profiles of xenon isotopes allowing isotopic ratios to be used for tracking UNE histories including estimating the time of detonation. In this study, we explore the potential effects of post-detonation cavity processes: precipitation of iodine precursors, gas seepage, and prompt venting on radioxenon isotopic evolution which influences UNE histories. Simplified analytical models and closed-form solutions yielding a potentially idealized radioactive decay/ingrowth chain in a closed and well-mixed system typically have limited application by not including the partitioning of the radionuclide inventory between a gas phase and rock melt created by the detonation and by ignoring gas transport from the cavity to host rock or ground surface. In reality, either subsurface transport or prompt release that is principally responsible for gas signatures violates the closed-system (or batch-mode) assumption. A closed-form solution representing time-dependent source-term activities is extended by considering the cavity partitioning process, slow seepage, and/or prompt release of gases from the cavity and applied to realistic systems.

Sun, Yunwei (ORCID:0000000194801439)↗
NASA NTRS1995

ROSAT observation program

In this annual progress report (November 1, 1993 to October 31, 1994), the geminga pulsar was observed by the ROSAT PSPC for 37,000 s in September 1993, in order to make a more detailed study than was previously possible of the pulse profile and two-component spectrum, and to do phase-resolved spectroscopy. This exposure was 2.5 times longer than the original discovery observation. In addition, a shorter 4,000 s exposure was made in October 1992, simultaneously with a GRO observation of Geminga, in order to verify the absolute phasing of the X-ray and gamma-ray peaks. We verified that the spectrum can be described as the sum of two black bodies, whose temperatures are 6 x 10(exp 5) K and 3 - 4 x 10(exp 6) K, with the latter covering 3 x 10(exp -5) the area of the former. The pulse profiles indicate that the intensity of the two emitting regions peak is approximately 90 deg out of phase in rotation, but that the temperatures are otherwise independent of phase. An improved estimate of the distance can be made from the cooler (larger) blackbody component, yielding d = 440 +/- 120 pc. Another program of this report was to obtain PSPC spectra of an important class of Seyfert galaxies which have narrow lines and stron permitted Fe II emission. Sometines called I Zw 1 objects, or narrow-line Seyfert 1s, they are crucial to our understanding of Seyfert classification and models of Seyfert unification. We observed four new objects and, in addition, obtained data on 17 more from the ROSAT archive. A third program combined PSPC and HRI observations of selected Seyfert galaxies which have unusual and variable spectra. The purpose was to disentangle diffuse X-ray emission from the nuclear source, in order to properly interpret the soft X-ray spectral shapes in terms of partial covering and/or warm-absorber models. The targets of the program are NGC 3516, NGC 3227, and NGC 7314. So far, we have only performed a dtailed analysis on NGC 3516. The fourth program of this report is the NGC 1672, the second brightest Seyfert galaxy and one or the original 'composite' Seyfert/starburst galaxies which have evidence for both Seyfert activity and H II regions in their optical spectra. It is one of the lowest luminosity Seyfert 2 galaxies that can be studied in detail.

Halpern, Jules P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Strategy Developed for Selecting Optimal Sensors for Monitoring Engine Health

Sensor indications during rocket engine operation are the primary means of assessing engine performance and health. Effective selection and location of sensors in the operating engine environment enables accurate real-time condition monitoring and rapid engine controller response to mitigate critical fault conditions. These capabilities are crucial to ensure crew safety and mission success. Effective sensor selection also facilitates postflight condition assessment, which contributes to efficient engine maintenance and reduced operating costs. Under the Next Generation Launch Technology program, the NASA Glenn Research Center, in partnership with Rocketdyne Propulsion and Power, has developed a model-based procedure for systematically selecting an optimal sensor suite for assessing rocket engine system health. This optimization process is termed the systematic sensor selection strategy. Engine health management (EHM) systems generally employ multiple diagnostic procedures including data validation, anomaly detection, fault-isolation, and information fusion. The effectiveness of each diagnostic component is affected by the quality, availability, and compatibility of sensor data. Therefore systematic sensor selection is an enabling technology for EHM. Information in three categories is required by the systematic sensor selection strategy. The first category consists of targeted engine fault information; including the description and estimated risk-reduction factor for each identified fault. Risk-reduction factors are used to define and rank the potential merit of timely fault diagnoses. The second category is composed of candidate sensor information; including type, location, and estimated variance in normal operation. The final category includes the definition of fault scenarios characteristic of each targeted engine fault. These scenarios are defined in terms of engine model hardware parameters. Values of these parameters define engine simulations that generate expected sensor values for targeted fault scenarios. Taken together, this information provides an efficient condensation of the engineering experience and engine flow physics needed for sensor selection. The systematic sensor selection strategy is composed of three primary algorithms. The core of the selection process is a genetic algorithm that iteratively improves a defined quality measure of selected sensor suites. A merit algorithm is employed to compute the quality measure for each test sensor suite presented by the selection process. The quality measure is based on the fidelity of fault detection and the level of fault source discrimination provided by the test sensor suite. An inverse engine model, whose function is to derive hardware performance parameters from sensor data, is an integral part of the merit algorithm. The final component is a statistical evaluation algorithm that characterizes the impact of interference effects, such as control-induced sensor variation and sensor noise, on the probability of fault detection and isolation for optimal and near-optimal sensor suites.

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