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At least 559 records · Page 31

Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Biosphere Model Development

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste. This work includes the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) program which is charged with development of generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment models. One part of the GDSA framework is the development of a biosphere model capable of assessing doses to potential receptors exposed to radionuclides released from geologic disposal sites. As part of the GDSA framework, a biosphere model compatible with the PFLOTRAN massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport code is under development. The PFLOTRAN model provides the radionuclide source term for the biosphere model. The GDSA Biosphere model then assesses the potential movement of radionuclides through the surface biosphere and the subsequent exposure to a human receptor living in the biosphere. The biosphere model includes pathways originating from the groundwater as well as pathways originating from surface water bodies that have a water exchange with a contaminated groundwater body. The pathways for human exposure include consumption of drinking water, irrigated crops, meat animals, aquatic vegetation, and animals, etc.; external exposure from irrigated ground surfaces, surface water bodies, recreational activities, etc.; and inadvertent exposures such as ingestion of contaminated soils or shower water, etc. The GDSA Biosphere model was designed to be flexible and generic in order to accommodate a variety of different sites and climate states. This presentation will present the on the purpose, design, and development progress of the GDSA Biosphere Model.

GDSA, biosphere, repository↗

Past and Future Drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

drought projection↗

The Potential for Predicting Precipitation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

The ability to predict precipitation several months in advance would have a significant impact on water resource management. This talk provides an overview of a project aimed at developing this prediction capability. NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) will generate seasonal-to-interannual sea surface temperature predictions through detailed ocean circulation modeling and will then translate these SST forecasts into forecasts of continental precipitation through the application of an atmospheric general circulation model and a "SVAT"-type land surface model. As part of the process, ocean variables (e.g., height) and land variables (e.g., soil moisture) will be updated regularly via data assimilation. The overview will include a discussion of the variability inherent in such a modeling system and will provide some quantitative estimates of the absolute upper limits of seasonal-to-interannual precipitation predictability.

Koster, R. D.↗

Dilemma of organic matter input to mitigate climate impact of rice paddies

Soil can act as either a source or sink of atmospheric carbon (C). Organic matter application can sequester carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) through negative emission technologies. However, in rice paddies, organic matter application can significantly increase methane (CH 4 ) emissions, offsetting potential climate benefits. Here, we compared the effects of organic matter types on net climate impact by quantifying annual gaseous fluxes and soil C stock changes with CO 2 equivalents. All organic amendments increased CH 4 emissions (7–30 Mg CO 2 -eq. ha −1 ) compared with the no organic matter treatment (NPK). However, the increases in soil C stock (9–11 Mg CO 2 -eq. ha −1 ) were insufficient to shift the system from a net C source to a net sink, even when combined with water management strategies. In contrast, biochar increased CH 4 emissions but enhanced soil C stock, leading to a net negative emission effect without compromising rice productivity. Given that rice paddies account for about 11 % of anthropogenic CH 4 emissions, organic matter application requires careful evaluation to avoid exacerbating climatic impacts.

Climate impact↗

Earlier Ecological Drought Detection by Involving the Interaction of Phenology and Eco-Physiological Function

Meteorological drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) are frequently used to diagnose “ecological drought,” despite the fact that they were not explicitly designed for this purpose. More recently developed indices like the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), which is based on the degree of coupling between actual to potential evapotranspiration, may better capture dynamic plant response to moisture limitations. However, the skill of these indices at describing plant water stress is rarely evaluated at sub-seasonal timescales over which drought evolves. Moreover, it remains unclear how variability in phenological timing impacts and complicates early drought detection. Here, we compared the ability of ESI and SPEI to reflect the dynamics of ecological drought in forests and grasslands, based on anomalies of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), surface conductance (G s , a proxy for stomatal conductance), soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit. ESI performed better than SPEI in capturing the dynamics of GPP and G s , but still missed early ecological drought signals due to biases linked to earlier onset of spring leaf development. Thus, we developed a modified variant of the ESI (ESI LAI ) that accounts for the complicating effects of phenological shifts in leaf area index (LAI). The ESI LAI detected drought onset up to 7–10 weeks earlier than SPEI and ESI. Additionally, drought onset dates determined from ESI LAI are close to (±2 weeks) the dates determined from LAI-corrected anomalies of G s , and GPP, as well as the onset dates of soil water deficit and atmospheric aridity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microfluidic droplets with amended culture media cultivate a greater diversity of soil microorganisms

ABSTRACT Uncultivated but abundant soil microorganisms have untapped potential for producing broad ranges of natural products, as well as for bioremediation. However, cultivating soil microorganisms while maintaining a broad microorganism diversity to enable phenotyping and functional analysis of as diverse individual isolates as possible remains challenging. In this study, we developed and tested the ability of several culture media formulations that contain defined soil metabolites or soil extracts to maintain microorganism diversity during culture. We also assessed their performance in microfluidic droplet cultivation where single-soil microorganism isolates were encapsulated and cultivated in picoliter-volume water-in-oil emulsion droplets to enable clonal growth needed for downstream functional analyses. Our results show that droplet cultivation with media supplemented by soil extract or soil metabolites enables the recovery of soil microorganisms with higher diversity (up to 1.5-fold higher richness) compared to bulk cultivation methods. Importantly, 1.7-fold more of less abundant (<1%) phyla and 11-fold more of unique genera were recovered, demonstrating the utility of this method for interrogating highly diverse soil microorganisms for broad ranges of applications. IMPORTANCE Although soil microorganisms hold a significant value in bioproduction and bioremediation, only a small fraction—less than 1%—can be cultured under specific media and cultivation conditions. This indicates that there are ample opportunities in harvesting the diverse environmental microorganisms if isolating and recovering these uncultured microorganisms are possible. This paper presents a new cultivation technique composed of isolating single-soil microorganism cell from anin situsoil microorganism community in microfluidic droplets and conducting in-droplet cultivation in media supplemented by soil extract or soil metabolites. This method enables the recovery of a broader diversity of the original microorganism community, laying the groundwork for a high-throughput phenotyping of these diverse microorganisms from their natural habitats.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗

Atmospheric humidity deficits tell us how soil moisture deficits down-regulate ecosystem evaporation

Knowing how actual evaporation is down-regulated from potential evaporation during periods with soil moisture deficits is one of the greatest challenges towards computing evaporation everywhere on a regular basis. We propose the hypothesis that vegetated landscapes transmit information on soil moisture deficits through its down-regulation of evaporation, which in turn affects the humidification and growth of the planetary boundary layer. To test this hypothesis, here, we examined how the evaporative fraction, defined as the ratio between actual and potential evaporation, corresponds with the soil moisture stress index, defined as the relative humidity with a power law dependence on vapor pressure deficit times a parameter, β. We tested the parameterized soil moisture stress index with direct eddy covariance measurements of actual evaporation and computations of potential evaporation based on meteorological conditions, averaged on monthly time steps. The analysis was conducted on a dataset obtained from 144 FLUXNET sites. These sites spanned much of the world's climates and biomes and contained over 5900 months of observations. Observations of the evaporative fraction fit the model of the soil moisture stress index best for semi-arid and arid ecosystems, and least for the humid and wet ecosystems. Consequently, a significant relationship between measurements of the evaporative fraction and soil moisture stress index held for about one-half of the population of sites. Under this condition, the median value of the parameter, β, was 1.41. To investigate the mechanism of this empirical soil moisture stress index, we diagnosed it with a coupled evaporation-planetary boundary layer model. The soil moisture stress index is strongly related to surface resistance, as defined by inverting Penman-Monteith equation. Consequently, this index provides an independent estimate of surface resistance based on easy to measure mean monthly weather conditions like relative humidity and temperature. Thereby, this soil moisture stress index has potential to be applied to weather, climate and biogeochemical models and the interpretation of satellite derived evaporation products, like the one provided by the ECOSTRESS mission.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A catchment scale water balance model for FIFE

A catchment scale water balance model is presented and used to predict evaporation from the King's Creek catchment at the First ISLSCP Field Experiment site on the Konza Prairie, Kansas. The model incorporates spatial variability in topography, soils, and precipitation to compute the land surface hydrologic fluxes. A network of 20 rain gages was employed to measure rainfall across the catchment in the summer of 1987. These data were spatially interpolated and used to drive the model during storm periods. During interstorm periods the model was driven by the estimated potential evaporation, which was calculated using net radiation data collected at site 2. Model-computed evaporation is compared to that observed, both at site 2 (grid location 1916-BRS) and the catchment scale, for the simulation period from June 1 to October 9, 1987.

Famiglietti, J. S.↗

Use of lunar regolith as a substrate for plant growth

Regenerative Life Support Systems (RLSS) will be required to regenerate air, water, and wastes, and to produce food for human consumption during long-duration missions to the Moon and Mars. It may be possible to supplement some of the materials needed for a lunar RLSS from resources on the Moon. Natural materials at the lunar surface may be used for a variety of lunar RLSS needs, including (1) soils or solid-support substrates for plant growth, (2) sources for extraction of essential, plant-growth nutrients, (3) substrates for microbial populations in the degradation of wastes, (4) sources of O2 and H2, which may be used to manufacture water, (5) feed stock materials for the synthesis of useful minerals (e.g., molecular sieves), and (6) shielding materials surrounding the outpost structure to protect humans, plants, and microorganisms from harmful radiation. Use of indigenous lunar regolith as a terrestrial-like soil for plant growth could offer a solid support substrate, buffering capacity, nutrient source/storage/retention capabilities, and should be relatively easy to maintain. The lunar regolith could, with a suitable microbial population, play a role in waste renovation; much like terrestrial waste application directly on soils. Issues associated with potentially toxic elements, pH, nutrient availability, air and fluid movement parameters, and cation exchange capacity of lunar regolith need to be addressed before lunar materials can be used effectively as soils for plant growth.

Ming, D. W.↗

Internship Tasks Associated With CIF Icy Regolith Excavation and Volatile Capture Under Vacuum Conditions

Understanding the surface and atmosphere of Mars is critical to current and future development of exploration systems. Dealing with the Martian regolith-the top layer of soil-remains a significant challenge, and much research is still needed. Addressing this need, the Cryogenics Test Lab and Granular Mechanics and Regolith Operations Lab at NASA's Kennedy Space Center are partnering to develop an apparatus that utilizes simulated Martian regolith in an analogous atmospheric environment to gather data about how the material behaves when exposed to water vapor. Martian surface temperatures range from 128 K (-145 C) to 308 K (35 C), and the average pressure is approximately 4.5 Torr; which presents an environment where water can potentially exist in vapor, solid or liquid form. And based on prior Mars missions such as the Phoenix Lander, it is known that water-ice exists just below the surface. This test apparatus will attempt to recreate the conditions that contributed to the Martian ice deposits by exposing a sample to water vapor at low pressure and temperature; thereby forming ice inside the simulant via diffusion. From this, we can better understand the properties and behavior of the regolith, and have more knowledge concerning its ability to store water-and subsequently, how to dig up and extract that water-which will be crucial to sample gathering when the first manned Mars mission takes place.

Thermal-Vacuum Testing↗

Significant stream chemistry response to temperature variations in a high-elevation mountain watershed

Abstract High-elevation mountain regions, central to global freshwater supply, are experiencing more rapid warming than low-elevation locations. High-elevation streams are therefore potentially critical indicators for earth system and water chemistry response to warming. Here we present concerted hydroclimatic and biogeochemical data from Coal Creek, Colorado in the central Rocky Mountains at elevations of 2700 to 3700 m, where air temperatures have increased by about 2 °C since 1980. We analyzed water chemistry every other day from 2016 to 2019. Water chemistry data indicate distinct responses of different solutes to inter-annual hydroclimatic variations. Specifically, the concentrations of solutes from rock weathering are stable inter-annually. Solutes that are active in soils, including dissolved organic carbon, vary dramatically, with double to triple peak concentrations occurring during snowmelt and in warm years. We advocate for consistent and persistent monitoring of high elevation streams to record early glimpse of earth surface response to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data from: “Significant stream chemistry response to temperature variations in a high-elevation mountain watershed”

High-elevation mountain regions, central to global freshwater supply, are experiencing more rapid warming than low-elevation locations. High-elevation streams are therefore potentially critical indicators for earth system and water chemistry response to warming. Here we present concerted hydroclimatic and biogeochemical data from Coal Creek, Colorado in the central Rocky Mountains at elevations of 2700 to 3700 m, where air temperatures have increased by about 2 °C since 1980. We analyzed water chemistry every other day from 2016 to 2019. Water chemistry data indicate distinct responses of different solutes to inter-annual hydroclimatic variations. Specifically, the concentrations of solutes from rock weathering are stable inter-annually. Solutes that are active in soils, including dissolved organic carbon, vary dramatically, with double to triple peak concentrations occurring during snowmelt and in warm years. We advocate for consistent and persistent monitoring of high elevation streams to record early glimpse of earth surface response to warming.1) Coal Creek stream were sampled and measured to answer the question if there is a significant stream chemistry response to climate change in high-elevation watershed2) The file contains data regarding discharge, water temperature and stream chemistry data for 2016-2019 year. Stream chemistry includes dissolved organic and inorganic carbon, chloride, nutrients, cations. The data collection efforts were carried out by the DOE-funded "Advancing a Watershed Hydro-Biogeochemical Theory: Linking Water Travel Time and Reaction Rates Under Changing Climate" project and Watershed Function SFA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil properties and root characteristics across four lowland Panamanian forests from 0 - 1 m soil depths

Objectives:Fine roots significantly influence ecosystem-scale cycling of nutrients, carbon (C), and water, yet there is limited understanding of how fine root traits vary across and within tropical forests, some of Earth's most C-rich ecosystems. The biomass of fine roots can impact soil carbon storage, as root mortality is a primary source of new carbon to soils. A positive relationship has been observed between fine root biomass and soil carbon stocks in Panama (Cusack et al 2018). Beyond biomass, root characteristics like specific root length (SRL) could also influence soil carbon, as roots with higher SRL are less dense and thinner, potentially decomposing more easily or promoting soil aggregation. Understanding the effects of root morphology and tissue quality on soil carbon storage and with soil properties in general can improve predictions of landscape-scale carbon patterns. We aggregated new data of root biomass, morphology and nutrient content at 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, 20-50 cm and 50-100 cm depth increments across four distinct lowland Panamanian forests and paired with already published datasets (Cusack et al 2018; Cusack and Turner 2020) of soil chemistry from the same sites and soil depths to explore relationship between soil carbon stocks and root characteristics.Datasets included:The datasets provided include .csv and .xlsx files for fine root characteristics and soil chemistry from four different forests across 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, 20-50 cm, and 50-100 cm depth increments. Root characteristics include live fine root biomass, dead fine root biomass, coarse root biomass, specific root length, root diameter, root tissue density, specific root area, root %N, root %C, and root C/N ratio. Soil chemistry data includes total carbon (TC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), bulk density, total phosphorus (TP), available phosphorus (AEM Pi), and various Mehlich-extractable elements such as aluminum, calcium, iron, potassium, manganese, phosphorus, and zinc. Nitrogen content measures include ammonium, nitrate, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON). The dataset also includes total exchangeable bases (TEB) and effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) in both centimoles of charge per kilogram and micromoles of charge per gram. The soil chemistry data was obtained from Cusack et al (2018) and Cusack and Turner (2020) and paired with root characteristics data for the same depth increments and sites. Additionally, a .kml file is provided with coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study across four forests (n = 8 plots per site). Root data was averaged across these 8 plots per site and soil data was collected in one pit in each site. This dataset serves as baseline data before a throughfall exclusion experiment, Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drying (PARCHED), was implemented. No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reviews and syntheses: Variable inundation across Earth's terrestrial ecosystems

Abstract. The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal scales of variable inundation are vast, ranging from sub-meter to whole landscapes and from sub-hourly to multi-decadal. The broad range of system types and scales makes it challenging to predict the hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical evolution of VIEs. Despite all experiencing the loss and gain of an overlying water column, VIEs are rarely considered together in conceptual, theoretical, modeling, or measurement frameworks and approaches. Studying VIEs together has the potential to generate mechanistic understanding that is transferable across a much broader range of environmental conditions, relative to knowledge generated by studying any one VIE type. We postulate that enhanced transferability will be important for predicting changes in VIE function in response to global change. Here we aim to catalyze cross-VIE science that studies drivers and impacts of variable inundation across Earth's VIEs. To this end, we complement expert mini-reviews of eight major VIE systems with overviews of VIE-relevant methods and challenges associated with scale. We conclude with perspectives on how cross-VIE science can derive transferable understanding via unifying conceptual models in which the impacts of variable inundation are studied across multi-dimensional environmental space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assimilation of Sentinel 1 and SMAP–based satellite soil moisture retrievals into SWAT hydrological model: the impact of satellite revisit time and product spatial resolution on flood simulations in small basins

In runoff generation process, soil moisture plays an important role as it controls the magnitude of the flood events in response to the rainfall inputs. In this study, we investigated the ability of a new era of satellite soil moisture retrievals to improve the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) daily discharge simulations via soil moisture data assimilation for two small (< 500 km2) and hydrologically different catchments located in Central Italy. We ingested 1) the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Enhanced L3 Radiometer Global Daily 9 km EASE-Grid soil moisture, 2) the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) H113 soil moisture product released within the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (HSAF) which has a nearly daily temporal resolution and sampling of 12.5 km, and 3) a fused ASCAT/Sentinel-1 (S1) satellite soil moisture product named SCATSAR-SWI with temporal and spatial sampling of 1 day and 1 km, respectively into SWAT hydrological model via the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Different configurations were tested with the aim of exploring the effect of the hydrological regime, the land use conditions, the spatial sampling and the revisit time of the products (which controls the amount of available data to be potentially ingested). Results show a general improvement of SWAT discharge simulations for all products in terms of error and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index. In particular, we found a relatively good behavior of both the active and the passive products in terms of low flows improvement especially for the catchment characterized by a higher baseflow component. The benefit of the higher spatial resolution of SCATSAR-SWI obtained via S1 over ASCAT was small, likely due to very challenging areas for the S1 retrieval. Eventually, better performances were obtained for the passive product in the more forested catchment. With the aim of exploring the benefit of having more frequent satellite soil moisture observations to be ingested, we tested the performance of the ASCAT product with a reduced temporal sampling obtained by temporally matching ASCAT observations to that of SMAP. The results show a significant reduction of the performance of ASCAT, suggesting that the correction frequency (due to the higher number of observations available) for small catchments is an important aspect for improving flood forecasting as it helps to adjust more frequently the pre-storm soil moisture conditions.

Shima Azimi↗

Estimating Everglades Peat Reserves and Losses on a Landscape-Scale

The Florida Everglades formed from sawgrass and other aquatic plant remains that have accumulated over thousands of years and is a patterned peatland. The region was initially drained for agricultural and urban development in the late 1800s by the lowering of Lake Okeechobee water levels through canal drainage. Over the course of the past century, the Everglades has further been altered by the construction of canals and levees to provide control of Lake Okeechobee and Everglades water levels. The drainage has caused the loss of much of the peat of the Everglades by peat fires and microbial oxidation, much of it occurring between the 1880s and the 1950s. Plans for Everglades restoration are designed to provide additional water to flow through the remaining Everglades. Additional water into the Everglades would prevent further peat loss by reducing oxidation and encouraging the accretion of peat that has been lost. This potentially could result in the sequestration of significant quantities of atmospheric carbon. We used historic records to determine how much peat was there originally and how much has been lost. Over the past century and a half, approximately 50% of the original Everglades has been lost to agricultural and urban development. In addition, much of the peat in the remaining Everglades Protection Area has been lost. We used Geographic Information Systems technologies to determine the volume and mass of peat, the mass of carbon for each of the predrainage landscapes as well as the current Everglades regions. To do this, historical and current surveys within the Everglades were used to create elevation maps. With these maps, along with a bedrock contour map of south Florida, and soils data from the USEPA, we estimated Everglades peat characteristics. These calculations provide rough, quantitative estimates of the historical Everglades, its current condition, and the changes in the peat soil that have taken place since the 19th century. Given the uncertainties in the hindcasting of some of these data sets, this analysis provides rough estimates for the peat volumes and related constituents. Our calculations indicate that the current Everglades roughly contains less than 24% of theoriginal peat volume, 17% of its mass and 19% of its carbon. The work described was fully supported by the South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL

Thomas Walter Dreschel↗

Assimilation of Sentinel 1 and SMAP – Based Satellite Soil Moisture Retrievals into SWAT Hydrological Model: the Impact of Satellite Revisit Time and Product Spatial Resolution on Flood Simulations in Small Basins

In runoff generation process, soil moisture plays an important role as it controls the magnitude of the flood events to the rainfall inputs. In this study, we investigated the ability of a new era of satellite soil moisture retrievals to improve the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) daily discharge simulations via soil moisture data assimilation for two small (< 500 km2) and hydrologically different catchments located in Central Italy. We ingested 1) the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Enhanced L3 Radiometer Global Daily 9 km EASE-Grid soil moisture, 2) the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) H113 soil moisture product released within the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) which has a nearly daily temporal resolution and sampling of 12.5 km, and 3) a fused ASCAT/Sentinel-1 (S1) satellite soil moisture product named SCATSAR-SWI with temporal and spatial sampling of 1 day and 1 km, respectively into SWAT hydrological model via Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Different configurations were tested with the aim of exploring the effect of the hydrological regime, the land use conditions, the spatial sampling and the revisit time of the products (which controls the amount of available data to be potentially ingested). Results show a general improvement of SWAT discharge simulations for all products in terms of error and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index. In particular, we found a relatively good behavior of both the active and the passive products in terms of low flows improvement especially for the catchment characterized by a higher baseflow component. The benefit of the higher spatial resolution of SCATSAR obtained via S1 over ASCAT was small likely due to very challenging areas for S1 retrieval. Eventually, better performances were obtained for the passive product in the more forested catchment. With the aim of exploring the benefit of having more frequent satellite soil moisture observations to be ingested, we tested the performance of the ASCAT product with a reduced temporal sampling obtained by temporally matching ASCAT observations to that of SMAP. The results show a significant reduction of the performance of ASCAT, suggesting that the correction frequency (due to the higher number of observations available) for small catchments is an important aspect for improving flood forecasting as it helps to adjust more frequently the soil moisture pre-storm conditions.

Small basins↗

Multi-modelling predictions show high uncertainty of required carbon input changes to reach a 4‰ target

Soils store vast amounts of carbon (C) on land, and increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in already managed soils such as croplands may be one way to remove C from the atmosphere, thereby limiting subsequent warming. The main objective of this study was to estimate the amount of additional C input needed to annually increase SOC stocks by 4‰ at 16 long-term agricultural experiments in Europe, including exogenous organic matter (EOM) additions. We used an ensemble of six SOC models and ran them under two configurations: (1) with default parametrization and (2) with parameters calibrated site-by-site to fit the evolution of SOC stocks in the control treatments (without EOM). We compared model simulations and analysed the factors generating variability across models. The calibrated ensemble was able to reproduce the SOC stock evolution in the unfertilised control treatments. We found that, on average, the experimental sites needed an additional 1.5 ± 1.2 Mg C ha -1 year -1 to increase SOC stocks by 4‰ per year over 30 years, compared to the C input in the control treatments (multi-model median ± median standard deviation across sites). That is, a 119% increase compared to the control. While mean annual temperature, initial SOC stocks and initial C input had a significant effect on the variability of the predicted C input in the default configuration (i.e., the relative standard deviation of the predicted C input from the mean), only water-related variables (i.e., mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) explained the divergence between models when calibrated. Here, our work highlights the challenge of increasing SOC stocks in agriculture and accentuates the need to increasingly lean on multi-model ensembles when predicting SOC stock trends and related processes. To increase the reliability of SOC models under future climate change, we suggest model developers to better constrain the effect of water-related variables on SOC decomposition.

4 per 1000 initiative↗