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Integrated Risk and Knowledge Management Program -- IRKM-P

The NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) IRKM-P tightly couples risk management and knowledge management processes and tools to produce an effective "modern" work environment. IRKM-P objectives include: (1) to learn lessons from past and current programs (Apollo, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station); (2) to generate and share new engineering design, operations, and management best practices through preexisting Continuous Risk Management (CRM) procedures and knowledge-management practices; and (3) to infuse those lessons and best practices into current activities. The conceptual framework of the IRKM-P is based on the assumption that risks highlight potential knowledge gaps that might be mitigated through one or more knowledge management practices or artifacts. These same risks also serve as cues for collection of knowledge particularly, knowledge of technical or programmatic challenges that might recur.

Lengyel, David M.↗

Oven Evaporates Isopropyl Alcohol Without Risk Of Explosion

Ordinary convection oven with capacity of 1 ft.(sup3) modified for use in drying objects washed in isopropyl alcohol. Nitrogen-purge equipment and safety interlocks added to prevent explosive ignition of flammable solvent evaporating from object to be dried.

Morgan, Gene E.↗

Dual-Wavelength Simultaneous Patterning of Degradable Thermoset Supports for One-Pot Embedded 3D Printing

Vat photopolymerization (VP) techniques have enabled the fabrication of complex geometries while balancing high precision and fast processing times. 3D printed objects are traditionally built layer-by-layer with newly cured layers being structurally supported by previous ones. Fabricating unsupported features such as overhangs and arches risks misalignment and sagging, limiting the range of accessible designs. To overcome this issue, support structures are fabricated along with the primary object as temporary scaffolds that provide stability and conserve print fidelity. For VP specifically, patterning dissolvable sacrificial supports is attractive to avoid manual removal after printing. In this study, we demonstrate a base-degradable thermoset to pattern print supports in a one-pot formulation along with the primary structural material. Efficient printing is enabled using a dual-wavelength negative imaging (DWNI) DLP printer that patterns the degradable thermoset with visible light and the permanent network with UV light, which are simultaneously projected using a single digital micromirror device (DMD). Printed objects undergo thermal postprocessing to enhance the final conversion of the primary material, after which thermoset supports are degraded in a basic, aqueous solution. This approach provides a robust method for the dual-wavelength patterning of sacrificial thermoset supports, broadening the range of accessible 3D printable materials and geometries.

3D printing↗

Characterization of modeling and experimental data inconsistencies from burst testing for high-burnup commercial fuel rod applications

Fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal are some of the largest issues remaining in the nuclear industry before rod-average burnup can be increased beyond 62 GWd/tU. The issue is primarily related to the potential for fuel to be dispersed into the reactor primary system, which may increase public risk. One way to prevent dispersal is to avoid cladding burst. The objective of this work is to support the high burnup safety case by evaluating cladding burst under high-burnup, full-length fuel rods and to identify uncertainties that could improve model predictions. The results of this analysis will evaluate realistic, prototypic loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions; support future cladding burst test designs; and inform the development of mechanistic material models. Realistic high-burnup operating conditions were implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to simulate steady-state and LOCA transient fuel rod evolution to the point at which cladding burst occurred. Parametric studies are performed to assess code response to changes in rod internal pressures and heating rates. Results were compared with simulated LOCA experiments to identify inconsistencies between commercial fuel rod analysis and experimental validation. The representative full-length fuel rod LOCA simulation results did not agree with cladding burst tests. Cladding burst tests indicated burst occurring well below (100–150 °C) those calculated in the full-length fuel rod LOCA analysis. Further investigation indicated that the cladding burst tests do not appear to be representative for full-length fuel rods. The inconsistency investigated in this work showed that the differences between the BISON simulation and the experiment's cladding burst conditions arise from an incomplete characterization of the cladding surface temperature, detailed rodlet characterization, lack of cladding strain measurements, and uncertainty in the cladding creep and failure models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

High Current Density Cables for Simpler HTS Magnets in Fusion Energy Systems

High current density cables are needed for the engineering design of potentially low cost, simpler geometry high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets in the promising magnetic configurations as a fusion pilot plant (FPP) option. Significant technology maturation efforts are underway by privately funded startups with the goal to demonstrate mature HTS magnet technology. Test results, however, indicate critical engineering issues remain to be addressed to meet performance goals, and demonstrate HTS coil operation repeatability and reliability. To this end, exploring and enabling multiple viable conductor and cable options is vital. Partnering with a private fusion startup and manufacturers of superconducting strands and cables, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) is exploring and seeking to de-risk the aggressive high field approach presently targeted by others. Our main objective is to develop, test and calibrate novel high current density cables for a broad deployment of affordable and reliable coils using Bi-2212 conductors. If successful, such a project will provide technical feasibility for promising FPP configurations including spherical tokamaks (ST) and compact stellarators. Here, we aim at the state-of-the-art Bi-2212 cable technologies toward a current density of 100 A/mm 2 at 16 T and 4.2 K–10 K operation for low cost, simpler geometry toroidal field (TF) coils for compact stellarators developed by fusion startup companies on a timeline consistent with the FPP initiatives and beyond.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Unlocking Metamaterials At The Macro Scale (CRADA Final Report)

This project was part of the Cyclotron Road program, which supports scientific entrepreneurs in their efforts to commercialize novel technologies with potential to address energy, manufacturing and climate related issues. The participants' technology is a lightweight cellular material system which could be applied to a range of products and markets and offer benefits of reduced weight, cost, waste, and carbon footprint. The objective of the project was to investigate potential opportunities and de-risk technical and market barriers in pursuit of successful commercialization. This project’s purpose was to find market pathways and technical roadmaps for commercializing the lightweight cellular material technology. The main problems to overcome are the risks in both tech and market. On the technical side, performance, weight, cost and speed of manufacturing, and other scaleup problems needed to be addressed. On the market side, the challenges included finding product/market fit, developing business models and go to market strategies, and developing commercial relationships within various industries. Our approach typically started with market analysis, in order to identify potential applications where our technology could solve problems and address pain points. To do this, we performed customer discovery, interviewing hundreds of industry stakeholders along all parts of the value chain for a given product or industry. From here, we would develop technoeconomic models which combined aspects of numerical modeling for structural and mechanical performance based on criteria from customers or industry guidelines such as stiffness, strength, weight, and other physical properties. Then, this would be combined with detailed cost models to translate the engineering solution into a manufacturable, scalable product. The challenge here was to have equal or better performance at lower cost and higher speed than existing solutions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report

Preface The MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) Community of Practice (CoP) hosted an inaugural workshop on October 3-5, 2023 at the University of California, Davis, to bring together members of the MSD community of practice to advance understanding of the co-evolution of human and natural systems, and to build the next generation of tools that bridge sectors, scales, and systems to realize a more resilient and equitable future. The theme of the workshop was "Advancing Complex Adaptive Human-Earth Systems Science in a World of Interconnected Risks". This document outlines the motivation for the workshop, its goals and objectives, the application process, the agenda, overviews of the training sessions offered to the workshop participants and a summary of each breakout session. The MSD workshop report further discusses the feedback from workshop participants and presents some reflections and next steps. The MSD Workshop organizers thank the DOE Office of Science, Earth and Environmental System Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics program area for financial support of its activities through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. For more information related to the broader DOE MultiSector Dynamics Program please see https://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/program-area/multisector-dynamics. D.L.M. and C.M.B. acknowledge support from the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the US Department of Energy (DOE). Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither theUnited States Government nor any agency thereof, nor Battelle Memorial Institute, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, complete- ness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial products, process, or service by trade name,trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory operated by Battelle for the United States Department of Energy Available from:Office of Scientific and Technical Information http://www.OSTI.gov multisectordynamics.org This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4 Suggested citation: Monier, E., Reed, P.M., Vernon, C.R., Hadjimichael, A., Brelsford, C.M., Burleyson, C.B., Dyreson, A.R., Fletcher, S.M., Giang, A., Gupta, R.S., Jackson, N.D., Jones, A.D., Lamontagne, J.R., McCollum, D.L., Morris, J.F., Moss, R.H., Peng, W., Saari, R.K., Srikrishnan, V., Szinai, J.K., Yoon, J. (2024) MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. doi:10.57931/2371710.

Monier, Erwan↗

A Module Experimental Process System Development Unit (MEPSDU)

Restructuring research objectives from a technical readiness demonstration program to an investigation of high risk, high payoff activities associated with producing photovoltaic modules using non-CZ sheet material is reported. Deletion of the module frame in favor of a frameless design, and modification in cell series parallel electrical interconnect configuration are reviewed. A baseline process sequence was identified for the fabrication of modules using the selected dendritic web sheet material, and economic evaluations of the sequence were completed.

Source record↗

Ka-band mobile and personal systems development at JPL

Expanding the commercial applications of space is one of the primary goals of NASA. Throughout the eighties NASA has pursued this objective by sponsoring and undertaking the development of system concepts, enabling high risk technologies, and actual proof of concept demonstration hardware. In the mobile and personal arena, or the so-called low data rate applications area, JPL is NASA's lead center. JPL's focus of activities has been the Mobile Satellite-Experiment (MSAT-X) project, which developed mobile communication technologies at L-band, and its present successors, which aim to expand the mobile arena by exploiting Ka-band.

Dessouky, K.↗

EXCALIBIR - A space experiment in orbital debris lethality

The study proposes a space experiment using extended Space Shuttle external tanks to test the impact of orbital debris. The External Tank Calibrated Impact Response test, EXCALIBIR, is a low-cost low-risk, high-payoff approach to investigating the threat to resident space objects posed by untrackable orbital debris, to provide lethality data to the kinetic energy weapons community, and to aid in the testing of space and missile interceptor technology. This experiment is a feasible use of existing assets - the external tank, observation and data collection facilities, launch facilities, and interceptor technology and tests planned for other programs.

Culp, Robert D.↗

Potential for Sonic Boom Reduction of the Boeing HSCT

The HSR sonic boom technology program includes a goal of reducing the objectionable aspects of sonic boom. Earlier HSCT sonic boom studies considered achieving significant sonic boom reduction by the use of arrow-wing planforms and detailed shaping of the airplane to produce shaped waveforms (non N-waves) at the ground. While these design efforts were largely successful, the added risk and cost of the airplanes were judged to be unacceptable. The objective of the current work is to explore smaller configuration refinements that could lead to reduced sonic boom impact, within design and operational constraints. A somewhat modest target of 10% reduction in sonic boom maximum overpressure was selected to minimize the effect on the configuration performance. This work was a joint NASA/Industry effort, utilizing the respective strengths of team members at Boeing, NASA Langley, and NASA Ames. The approach used was to first explore a wide range of modifications and airplane characteristics for their effects on sonic boom and drag, using classical Modified Linear Theory (MLT) methods. CFD methods were then used to verify promising, modifications and to analyze modifications for which the MLT methods were not appropriate. The tea m produced a list of configuration changes with their effects on sonic boom and, in some cases, an estimate of the drag penalty. The most promising modifications were applied to produce a boom-softened derivative of the baseline Boeing High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) configuration. This boom-softened configuration was analyzed in detail for the reduce sonic boom impact and also for the effect of the configuration modifications on drag, weight, and overall performance relative to the baseline.

Haglund, George T.↗

Germination and elongation of flax in microgravity

This experiment was conducted as part of a risk mitigation payload aboard the Space Shuttle Atlantis on STS-101. The objectives were to test a newly developed water delivery system, and to determine the optimal combination of water volume and substrate for the imbibition and germination of flax (Linum usitatissimum) seeds in space. Two different combinations of germination paper were tested for their ability to absorb, distribute, and retain water in microgravity. A single layer of thick germination paper was compared with one layer of thin germination paper under a layer of thick paper. Paper strips were cut to fit snugly into seed cassettes, and seeds were glued to them with the micropyle ends pointing outward. Water was delivered in small increments that traveled through the paper via capillary action. Three water delivery volumes were tested, with the largest (480 microliters) outperforming the 400 microliters and 320 microliters volumes for percent germination (90.6%) and root growth (mean=4.1 mm) during the 34-hour spaceflight experiment. The ground control experiment yielded similar results, but with lower rates of germination (84.4%) and shorter root lengths (mean=2.8 mm). It is not clear if the roots emerged more quickly in microgravity and/or grew faster than the ground controls. The single layer of thick germination paper generally exhibited better overall growth than the two layered option. Significant seed position effects were observed in both the flight and ground control experiments. Overall, the design of the water delivery system, seed cassettes and the germination paper strip concept was validated as an effective method for promoting seed germination and root growth under microgravity conditions. c2003 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-NASA Center↗

Prediction of coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration

OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop and validate a model that estimates the risk of obstructive coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration and to demonstrate its potential clinical utility. METHODS: A total of 722 patients (67% men; age, 61 +/- 12 years) without a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic electrocardiographic changes, or angina who underwent routine coronary angiography before mitral valve prolapse operations between 1989 and 1996 were analyzed. A bootstrap-validated logistic regression model on the basis of clinical risk factors was developed to identify low-risk (< or =5%) patients. Obstructive coronary atherosclerosis was defined as 50% or more luminal narrowing in one or more major epicardial vessels, as determined by means of coronary angiography. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine (19%) patients had obstructive coronary atherosclerosis. Independent predictors of coronary artery disease include age, male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus,and hyperlipidemia. Two hundred twenty patients were designated as low risk according to the logistic model. Of these patients, only 3 (1.3%) had single-vessel disease, and none had multivessel disease. The model showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.84. Cost analysis indicated that application of this model could safely eliminate 30% of coronary angiograms, corresponding to cost savings of $430,000 per 1000 patients without missing any case of high-risk coronary artery disease. CONCLUSION: A model with standard clinical predictors can reliably estimate the prevalence of obstructive coronary atherosclerosis in patients undergoing mitral valve prolapse operations. This model can identify low-risk patients in whom routine preoperative angiography may be safely avoided.

Non-NASA Center↗

Covariance Manipulation for Conjunction Assessment

The manipulation of space object covariances to try to provide additional or improved information to conjunction risk assessment is not an uncommon practice. Types of manipulation include fabricating a covariance when it is missing or unreliable to force the probability of collision (Pc) to a maximum value ('PcMax'), scaling a covariance to try to improve its realism or see the effect of covariance volatility on the calculated Pc, and constructing the equivalent of an epoch covariance at a convenient future point in the event ('covariance forecasting'). In bringing these methods to bear for Conjunction Assessment (CA) operations, however, some do not remain fully consistent with best practices for conducting risk management, some seem to be of relatively low utility, and some require additional information before they can contribute fully to risk analysis. This study describes some basic principles of modern risk management (following the Kaplan construct) and then examines the PcMax and covariance forecasting paradigms for alignment with these principles; it then further examines the expected utility of these methods in the modern CA framework. Both paradigms are found to be not without utility, but only in situations that are somewhat carefully circumscribed.

Conjunction↗

Advancing Torpor Inducing Transfer Habitats for Human Stasis to Mars: II - Phase

SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) has conducted an evaluation of an advanced habitat system designed to transportcrews between the Earth and Mars. This new and innovative habitat concept is capable of placing crew members ininactive, torpor states during transit phases of a deep space mission. This substantially reduces the mass and size ofthe habitat, which ultimately leads to significant reductions in the overall architecture size.Our approach for achieving this is based on extending the current and evolving medical practice of TherapeuticHypothermia (TH) - a proven and effective treatment for various traumatic injuries. TH is a medical treatment thatlowers a patient's body temperature by just 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit causing human metabolic rate to decreasesignificantly and the body to enter an unconscious state. This method avoids the intractable challenges often associatedwith cell metabolic cessation through cryogenic freezing and other highly speculative approaches.The initial results obtained from the research and analysis conducted in the Phase I effort warranted further study ofthis concept and technology. The specific objectives of the continued work include:1. Addressing critical medical aspects and risks for inducing torpor via Therapeutic Hypothermia and theapproach for providing nutrition and hydration for the crew during torpor. 2. Focusing on mitigation aspects and technology potential for solving key human spaceflight challenges. 3. Addressing critical engineering aspects of the design that may impact the initial performance and cost resultsobtained in Phase I. 4. Examining the broader extensibility and enabling capabilities of this concept through applicability toadditional exploration missions beyond Mars. 5. Establishing a technology development roadmap, addressing both medical and engineering aspects, thatindicate a logical and scientifically achievable path forward for maturation of this technology.

Stasis↗

Spacesuit Reach Capability and Work Volume Assessment

Work volumes and reach envelopes define the locations where work objects or interfaces can be placed around a person to reduce ergonomic risk. Spacesuits, however, show unique reach patterns, due to the stiffness and mechanical constraints from pressurization. This study measured the reach motion patterns and capabilities from subjects wearing a pressurized spacesuit using a 3D motion capture system. The subjects performed arm and hand motions, focusing on extreme lateral and vertical positions. These motions defined the maximum ranges. They also performed on-suit reaches to measure where they could or couldn’t reach on the suit surface to determine where critical controls and devices could be placed on the suit. A parametric model of the reach volume was statistically built using the collected hand position data. The observed shape and size of the work volume substantially vary by persons, depending on anthropometry and strength capability. It was also indicated that the traditional metrics (e.g., simple spherical or cylindrical representations) estimated from “unsuited” persons or computer simulations may not accurately capture such variations. The results of this study can help to design and optimize space hardware and task activities, to protect crewmembers from overexertion or injuries.

Han Kim↗

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Training Requirements Modeling to Inform Crew Size

Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to the long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The IMPRINT results will be presented in the modeling and simulation sub-tag. Here we present results of a model based on NASA’s crew qualification and responsibility matrix (CQRM), a tool used to identify the crew qualifications for each area of responsibility (operation, system, and payload) for a mission. The model outputs an optimized allocation of training assignments along with a flight-assigned CQRM that can be used to consider the expertise that can be trained within a crew of a given size. We discuss the CQRM model result implications on the trade space for Mars mission crew size.

Mars↗

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Imprint Human Performance Models to Inform Crew Size

HUMANS TO MARS, BUT HOW MANY? USING IMPRINT HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELS TO INFORM CREW SIZE Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The custom-built crew expertise model results will be presented in the training sub-tag. Here we present results of the three IMPRINT models. Two of these models were built using IMPRINT’s Operations Model capability, with detailed task networks for specific systems and scenarios allowing for a comprehensive mental workload analysis on certain crew positions. The third model was built using IMPRINT’s Force Model capability, allowing for a higher-level manpower analysis based on crew engagement in activities performed over a longer Mars transit scenario, and how those activities may be impacted by unplanned events and new tasking unique to the Mars mission. Differences between the models will be presented, as well as examples of model results and a discussion of how those results may inform future Mars mission manpower requirements, system design, and operating procedures.

Donna L Dempsey↗