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At least 559 records · Page 31

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydrogen and Electric Charging Infrastructure for Heavy-Duty Trucks: A Nationally Scalable Megaregion Assessment

Decarbonizing regional and long-haul freight is challenging due to the limitations of battery-electric commercial vehicles and infrastructure constraints. Hydrogen fuel cell medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) offer a viable alternative, aligning with the decarbonization goals of the Department of Energy and commercial entities. Historically, alternative fuels like compressed natural gas and liquefied propane gas have faced slow adoption due to barriers like infrastructure availability. To avoid similar issues, effective planning and deploying zero-emission hydrogen fueling infrastructure is crucial. This research develops deployment plans for affordable, accessible, and sustainable hydrogen refueling stations, supporting stakeholders in the decarbonized commercial vehicle freight system. It aims to benefit underserved and rural energy-stressed communities by improving air quality, reducing noise pollution, and enhancing energy resiliency. This research also provides a blueprint for replacing diesel in over-the-road Class 8 freight truck applications with hydrogen fueling solutions. The study focuses on the Texas Triangle Megaregion (I-45, I-35, and I-10), the I-10 corridor between San Antonio, TX, and Los Angeles, CA, and the I-5/CA-99 corridors between Los Angeles, CA, and San Francisco, CA. This area represents a significant portion of U.S. heavy-duty freight movement, carrying ~8.5% of the national freight volume. Using the OR-AGENT (Optimal Regional Architecture Generation for Efficient National Transport) modeling framework, the study conducts an advanced assessment of commercial vehicles, road and freight networks, and energy systems. The framework integrates data on freight mobility, traffic, weather, and energy pathways to deliver a region-specific, optimized vehicles powertrain architectures, infrastructure deployment solutions, operational logistics, and energy pathways. By considering all vehicle origin-destination pairs utilizing these corridors and all feasible fueling station location options, the framework's genetic algorithm identifies the minimum number and optimal locations of hydrogen refueling stations, ensuring no vehicle is stranded. It also determines fuel schedules and quantities at each station. A roadmap for station deployment based on multiple adoption trajectories ensures a strategic rollout of hydrogen refueling infrastructure.

Sujan, Vivek [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000269882342)↗

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

Power outages cause significant economic and societal impacts. An increasing likelihood of extreme weather coupled with aging grid infrastructure is leading to a higher prevalence of extended power outages, which can leave customers without power for multiple days or even weeks. Planners at the facility, local, state, and federal levels are interested in resilience solutions to reduce the impacts of extended power outages. Resilience solutions—such as installing backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, and hardening distribution and transmission components—can reduce the consequences of extended power outages, but these solutions come with increased capital costs. Conducting cost-benefit analyses is important for determining which steps to take to mitigate the impact of power outages without investing in ineffective and cost-prohibitive resilience solutions. The expected benefits of resilience investments depend on the frequency of power outages of various durations, particularly extended outages lasting several hours, days, or weeks. A significant barrier to resilience planning is the lack of publicly available data on the frequency and duration of extended power outages. The absence of outage duration information severely limits the ability to conduct quantitative cost-benefit analyses of resilience investments. This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies. We developed a methodology to estimate customer outage durations for extended outage events using publicly available data on customer outages. Shorter-duration power outages are relatively common, with customers experiencing on average more than one power outage each year lasting fewer than 12 hours. An outage event lasting between 1 day and 1 week is expected to occur between once every 16 years and once every 42 years, depending on the region, with an average recurrence rate of once every 32 years across the contiguous United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cybersecurity Standards for Photovoltaic Operations

Solar energy plays an important role in securing a more resilient, cyber-secure electrical grid in Pennsylvania. Solar's ability to be widely "distributed" on residential and large roofs, marginal lands, and many other locations across Pennsylvania - as opposed to being centralized - offers a strong option for addressing the myriad of potential disruptions that can occur to the grid's infrastructure. And when combined with energy storage, local energy needs can be met immediately without having to wait on the delivery of an off-site fuel source. As more and more distributed solar electricity generation is brought online, researchers, technology developers, solar developers and grid operators are paying close attention to the potential for solar to enhance grid cybersecurity. Although nobody may know when, where, or how the next cyberattack will take place, there are security measures, technical solutions, and management practices that are being implemented across the industry to protect against network control issues and grid operations. Everyone participating in the solar value chain stands to gain from a coordinated, iterative approach to protect against cyber vulnerabilities and build deeper resilience into the architecture of our grid.

cybersecurity↗

CCE Phase 2: System-of-System Analysis

During Phase 1, Consequence Prioritization, the CCE Team identified High Consequence Events (HCEs) that can be accomplished through cyber means to impact critical functions, services, and processes. During Phase 2, System-of-Systems Analysis (SoS Analysis), the CCE Team will conduct a systematic review and analysis of information related to the equipment, systems, processes, operations, maintenance, testing, and procurement practices based on the HCEs identified in Phase 1.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Geospatial Capabilities to Couple Hazard and Social Vulnerability Data in Water Distribution Criticality Analysis

A resilience analysis of a water distribution system is greatly enhanced by the integration of up-to-date geospatial data describing the water system, hazards, and surrounding community. The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR), an open-source Python package designed to simulate and analyze the resilience of water distribution systems, was recently updated to incorporate geographic information system (GIS) data into the resilience analysis. This paper describes the GIS capabilities and includes a case study using the drinking water distribution system model for a large city in Pennsylvania. The case study focuses on potential pipe damage from landslides and on pipes that are particularly difficult to repair. The analysis couples data on hazards, social vulnerability, and the location of emergency services to identify and prioritize high-impact critical infrastructure for mitigation. Results demonstrate that pipes can be prioritized for mitigation based on water shortage and vulnerable populations that are affected. In conclusion, the methods can be adopted for general use and are available as part of the WNTR software.

GIS, landslide↗

Advancing Federal Infrastructure Through Innovation: Customer Damage Function Calculator

Provides an overview of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Customer Damage Function (CDF) Calculator web tool, developed with funding and support from the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP). The CDF Calculator is a screening tool that provides justification to site and/or headquarters leadership for resilience investments. It generates monetary values to justify investments in resilience solutions to prevent or lessen the impact of a grid outage at a facility.

CDF calculator↗

Organizational Influence on Supply Chain for Digital Energy Infrastructure: Business Models, and Policy Landscape

Significant investment is driving the essential modernization and digitization of U.S. energy infrastructure, but the United States faces a key challenge in this grid transformation: our renewable and clean energy supply chains have limited capacity to source necessary digital assets through U.S. or allied sources. Batteries and their associated power electronic interfaces are key components to delivering clean and more resilient energy delivery, providing much-needed fast ramping, emergency discharge, generation, and operations support to the electric grid. These services have grown to be invaluable over the past 10 years and will soon be an irreplaceable component of energy delivery. While there have been significant strides to move supply chains for raw and critical materials to U.S. and allied nations, the control and power electronic industry has lagged, in part because of lower cost margins. For example, the United States now has growing capacity to manufacture solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, but 90% of the inverters—which are essential to the conversion of DC to AC for grid connection and controls—are made in or source parts from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). While a global supply chain is beneficial for many economic and supply diversification reasons, presence of foreign entities of concern (FEOC) in a dominant role in this supply chain brings additional concerns for national security of infrastructure. The BESS relationship and new clean energy have features that warrant discussions and additional focus on impact for technology security, given their critical role. This review considers the impact and solutions for complex business and policy landscapes in clean energy supply chain, and the benefit trade-offs, focusing on the Battery Energy Storage System case study, and its complex organizational relationships across both the US, Allied countries and Foreign Entities of Concern. While many examples in this paper are presented on PRC focused manufacture, this could apply to any potentially adversarial relationship

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

DISTRI: Distributed Multi-Facility HPC Simulator (DISTRI) v2.1

DISTRI is an advanced network simulator designed for multi-facility computational infrastructures with agentic behavior. It simulates HPC facilities where computational resources act as autonomous agents, making intelligent decisions about job scheduling, load balancing, and resource allocation. The simulator focuses on developing and testing decentralized algorithms that promote resilience and efficiency in multi-facility environments. Key Features: - Agentic Resource Behavior: Processors and DTNs act as autonomous agents with decision-making capabilities - Pheromone-Based Load Balancing: Decentralized load balancing inspired by ant colony optimization - Dual Topology Support: Mesh (normal operations) and Dumbell (network testing) topologies - Comprehensive TCP Simulation: Realistic TCP implementations with multiple congestion control algorithms - Failure Resilience Testing: Processor failure simulation with automatic job reassignment - Extensive Visualization: Detailed performance analysis and metrics collection - Research-Ready: Designed for algorithm development and benchmarking

Bez, Jean Luca [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗

Tough Errors are no Match (TEAM): Optimizing the Quantum Compiler for Noise Resilience

This project builds toward a comprehensive error-mitigating toolkit that makes quantum programming more robust and adaptive to the noisy, resource-limited nature of today’s quantum hardware. To that end, it integrates established error-mitigation methods — such as zero-noise extrapolation and dynamical decoupling — directly into compiler infrastructures. These techniques will be packaged as modules that can automatically adjust and combine based on performance analysis, enabling compilers to explore large design spaces and produce optimized, low-noise quantum programs with minimal manual intervention. In parallel, this project also explores new approaches to analog quantum programming or quantum simulation, and has developed the programming language SimuQ which treats quantum Hamiltonian evolution as the central object.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advanced Offshore Hazard Forecasting to Enable Resilient Offshore Operations

Paper prepared for the Offshore Technology Conference, 2024. Hazards in the offshore environment can imperil successful energy operations, whether those operations are conventional, renewable, or for decarbonization. The expanding accessibility of data science and the advanced applications of machine learning (ML) models creates an opportunity to assess potential hazards and the infrastructure they impact. We present a use case demonstrating the combined application of published ML tools to U.S. federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico, an actively explored region for offshore energy that is affected by variable metocean conditions and geologic processes contributing to potential hazards.

Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗

COVID-19 and the Power Sector in Southeast Asia: Impacts and Opportunities

The COVID-19 pandemic is unique among the range of threats encountered over the last century, and its specific impacts do not necessarily resemble those of other disasters. In the near term, the pandemic is causing demand shocks, workforce impacts, supply chain complications, and a global, economic contraction with long-term consequences as yet unknown. In contrast, with natural disasters the principal impacts are more acute. These include infrastructure destruction, displaced populations, and often localized economic impact; however, the long-term response to both of these threats–pandemics and destructive forces of nature–requires similar approaches to building short-term and long-term resilience that prepare power sectors for safe and reliable operation during times of disruption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Estimates of the Economic Impacts of Long-Duration, Widespread Power Disruptions in Puerto Rico

A typical electricity customer in Puerto Rico experienced nearly 27 hours of power interruptions in 2023–with many customers experiencing extremely long duration outages during a single event (i.e., greater than one month). This project involved conducting state-of-the-art surveying to assess the direct costs of power outages occurring across Puerto Rico, developing customer-specific models to estimate future costs over varying outage durations, and comparing these estimates to FEMA’s Value of Unit Service for Electricity. We estimate that a territory-wide power outage may cost customers $\$1$, $\$5$ and $\$29$ billion during one-, 14-, and 30-day interruptions, respectively. However, these are lower-bound estimates because our study focused on direct economic costs and, by necessity, did not fully incorporate (1) indirect impacts to the economy; (2) costs to repair or replace damaged utility infrastructure; and (3) the broader societal consequences including increased morbidity- and mortality-related costs. The information contained in this study can be used to estimate the direct economic value of past or proposed investments in power system resilience. We conclude with a discussion of this study’s limitations and suggest additional research to improve stakeholder understanding of the impacts of power outages across Puerto Rico.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

GLIMPSE of Future Power Grid Models

Power grid is one of the critical national infrastructures with social, economics, and national security impacts. Particularly, power distribution systems represent part of the infrastructure between power distribution substations and customers such as residential, commercial, and industrial. To address various grid modernization challenges, state-of-the-art algorithms and methodologies have been developed to deploy, operate, and expand a secure and resilient power grid. At the same time, there is a need to develop capabilities to assist power grid stakeholders to quickly get insight into the design and structure of the grid. Data visualization is a key approach to comprehend and understand complex systems such as the power grid. We present GLIMPSE Grid Layout Interface for Model Preview and System Exploration), a graph-based semantic-aware application to visualize and update distribution power grid models. The GLIMPSE can be used with standard IEEE models to search and highlight power grid objects such as generators, loads, overhead lines, etc. Additionally, it supports updating attributes and model export to integrate with GridLAB-D simulations.

Cybersecurity, power grid, visualization↗

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. Here, this paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Building Blocks for Secure and Prosperous Defense Critical Supply Chains: A Case Study from Microelectronics

Securing defense-critical supply chains, built on resilient and sustainable microelectronics fabrication and deployment, is a national imperative and one that requires an investment in basic and applied research, development, and deployment into industries in (and out of) the Defense Industrial Base (DIB). Critical next steps include the development of pilots for revolutionary concepts in a new formal verification model and the Cyber-Physical Passport (CPP) concept for chain of custody. Critical infrastructure leadership should take action with a sense of urgency. Working in conjunction with the Under Secretary for Acquisition and Sustainment, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering should establish pilot programs with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the service labs to build and test both concepts in legacy and new system development.. Additionally, the Pentagon may be aware that an existing Manufacturing Innovation Institute is piloting, with the semiconductor industry, cyber innovations to provide verifiable security properties and guarantees of physical functions to build a more cyber secure, resilient and efficient micro-electronics supply chain.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Improving the Cyber and Physical Security Posture of the Electric Sector (Final Report)

Cooperative electric utilities represent an integral part of the larger electric grid and are part of the nation’s critical infrastructure. The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA) has a unique relationship with approximately 900 cooperatively owned and operated electric utilities and engaged in a program with the Department of Energy (DOE) to promote a culture of cybersecurity and resiliency within the electric cooperative community. The Rural Cooperative Cybersecurity Capabilities (RC3) Program, funded under a Cooperative Agreement with DOE (Project DE-OE-0000807), focused on improving the cybersecurity and resiliency capabilities of small and mid-sized electric distribution cooperatives. This segment of electric utilities faces many challenges, but also embraces a culture of cooperation that presents opportunities. A customized approach is needed to reach these utilities – one that emphasizes collaboration, more focused and personalized training, use of trusted and familiar experts that can be deployed as needed, software security services that require limited in-house cybersecurity expertise, and shared resource models that enable access to more expensive cybersecurity options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cyber-Informed Engineering Research and Development Guide

This document provides guidance on incorporating Cyber Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into the research and development (R&D) of operational technology systems and tools, facilitating the creation and adoption of innovative technologies that are secure and resilient by design. As technological innovation and research are becoming pivotal for economic and national security, cybersecurity has emerged as a paramount concern across industries and sectors. The challenge of integrating robust cybersecurity measures is imperative to safeguard critical infrastructure, protect sensitive data, and preserve national security interests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗