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DOE OSTI2020

2020 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

The study looks at the evolution of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market across the last decade to provide an understanding of how the market arrived at its current condition. In addition, the study examines four scenarios and utilizes probabilistic dispatch analysis to assess the potential for resource adequacy and reliability concerns under those scenarios. The study finds that under three of the four scenarios, the region will see an increased risk for Energy Emergency Alerts and need for emergency operator actions to ensure the reliable delivery of electricity to the more than 25 million people who ERCOT serves.

2020↗

NASA NTRS1992

Statistical modeling of software reliability

This working paper discusses the statistical simulation part of a controlled software development experiment being conducted under the direction of the System Validation Methods Branch, Information Systems Division, NASA Langley Research Center. The experiment uses guidance and control software (GCS) aboard a fictitious planetary landing spacecraft: real-time control software operating on a transient mission. Software execution is simulated to study the statistical aspects of reliability and other failure characteristics of the software during development, testing, and random usage. Quantification of software reliability is a major goal. Various reliability concepts are discussed. Experiments are described for performing simulations and collecting appropriate simulated software performance and failure data. This data is then used to make statistical inferences about the quality of the software development and verification processes as well as inferences about the reliability of software versions and reliability growth under random testing and debugging.

Miller, Douglas R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Reliability Evaluation of Base-Metal-Electrode (BME) Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors for Space Applications

This paper reports reliability evaluation of BME ceramic capacitors for possible high reliability space-level applications. The study is focused on the construction and microstructure of BME capacitors and their impacts on the capacitor life reliability. First, the examinations of the construction and microstructure of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) BME capacitors show great variance in dielectric layer thickness, even among BME capacitors with the same rated voltage. Compared to PME (precious-metal-electrode) capacitors, BME capacitors exhibit a denser and more uniform microstructure, with an average grain size between 0.3 and approximately 0.5 micrometers, which is much less than that of most PME capacitors. The primary reasons that a BME capacitor can be fabricated with more internal electrode layers and less dielectric layer thickness is that it has a fine-grained microstructure and does not shrink much during ceramic sintering. This results in the BME capacitors a very high volumetric efficiency. The reliability of BME and PME capacitors was investigated using highly accelerated life testing (HALT) and regular life testing as per MIL-PRF-123. Most BME capacitors were found to fail· with an early dielectric wearout, followed by a rapid wearout failure mode during the HALT test. When most of the early wearout failures were removed, BME capacitors exhibited a minimum mean time-to-failure of more than 10(exp 5) years. Dielectric thickness was found to be a critical parameter for the reliability of BME capacitors. The number of stacked grains in a dielectric layer appears to play a significant role in determining BME capacitor reliability. Although dielectric layer thickness varies for a given rated voltage in BME capacitors, the number of stacked grains is relatively consistent, typically between 10 and 20. This may suggest that the number of grains per dielectric layer is more critical than the thickness itself for determining the rated voltage and the life expectancy of the BME capacitor. Since BME capacitors have a much smaller grain size than PME capacitors, it is reasonable to predict that BME capacitors with thinner dielectric layers may have an equivalent life expectancy to that of PME capacitors with thicker dielectric layers.

Liu, David (Donghang)↗

NASA NTRS1972

Conceptual design of a 10 to the 8th power bit magnetic bubble domain mass storage unit and fabrication, test and delivery of a feasibility model

The conceptual design of a highly reliable 10 to the 8th power-bit bubble domain memory for the space program is described. The memory has random access to blocks of closed-loop shift registers, and utilizes self-contained bubble domain chips with on-chip decoding. Trade-off studies show that the highest reliability and lowest power dissipation is obtained when the memory is organized on a bit-per-chip basis. The final design has 800 bits/register, 128 registers/chip, 16 chips/plane, and 112 planes, of which only seven are activated at a time. A word has 64 data bits +32 checkbits, used in a 16-adjacent code to provide correction of any combination of errors in one plane. 100 KHz maximum rotational frequency keeps power low (equal to or less than, 25 watts) and also allows asynchronous operation. Data rate is 6.4 megabits/sec, access time is 200 msec to an 800-word block and an additional 4 msec (average) to a word. The fabrication and operation are also described for a 64-bit bubble domain memory chip designed to test the concept of on-chip magnetic decoding. Access to one of the chip's four shift registers for the read, write, and clear functions is by means of bubble domain decoders utilizing the interaction between a conductor line and a bubble.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1994

Reliability-Based Design of a Safety-Critical Automation System: A Case Study

In 1986, NASA funded a project to modernize the NASA Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnels, including the replacement of obsolescent controls with a modern, automated distributed control system (DCS). The project effort on this system included an independent safety analysis (ISA) of the automation system. The purpose of the ISA was to evaluate the completeness of the hazard analyses which had already been performed on the Modernization Project. The ISA approach followed a tailoring of the risk assessment approach widely used on existing nuclear power plants. The tailoring of the nuclear industry oriented risk assessment approach to the automation system and its role in reliability-based design of the automation system is the subject of this paper.

Carroll, Carol W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulator Data Analysis to Inform Digitalized Environment Impacts on Human Reliability

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed a human reliability analysis (HRA) method, termed the Integrated Human Event Analysis System for Event and Condition Assessment (IDHEAS-ECA), in order to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in risk-informed regulatory applications. To update the quantification part of IDHEAS-ECA, the NRC required human performance and error data from fully digitalized main control rooms (MCRs); therefore, it requested that Idaho National Laboratory (INL) revisit previous data collection studies and investigate how the following three factors impact human reliability: self-checking, peer-checking, and automation. The HRA data collection studies revisited were the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) project, developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), and the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP), developed by INL. HuREX is a representative HRA data collection study that collects human reliability data from full-scope simulators staffed by licensed operators. SHEEP, on the other hand, has been proposed to complement such full-scope studies by collecting data via simplified simulators staffed by non-licensed student operators. In the HuREX study, KAERI collected HRA data from fully digitalized MCRs for the Advanced Power Reactor (APR)–1400. The SHEEP data were obtained from simplified simulators that partially mimicked the features of digitalized MCRs. The present report mainly discusses how the impacts of the aforementioned three factors on human errors were derived from these two data collection studies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward the first gluon parton distribution from the LaMET

Abstract We present progress towards the first unpolarized gluon quasi-parton distribution function (PDF) from lattice quantum chromodynamics using high-statistics measurements for hadrons at two valence pion masses M π ≈ 310 and 690 MeV computed on an a ≈ 0.12 fm ensemble with 2 + 1 + 1-flavors of highly improved staggered quark generated by the MILC collaboration. In this study, we consider two gluon operators for which the hybrid-ratio renormalization matching kernels have been recently derived and a third operator that has been used in prior pseudo-PDF studies of the gluon PDFs. We compare the matrix elements for each operator for both the nucleon and pion, at both pion masses, and using two gauge-smearing techniques. Focusing on the more phenomenologically studied nucleon gluon PDF, we compare the ratio and hybrid-ratio renormalized matrix elements at both pion masses and both smearings to those reconstructed from the nucleon gluon PDF from the CT18 global analysis. We identify the best choice of operator to study the gluon PDF and present the first gluon quasi-PDF under some caveats. Additionally, we explore the recent idea of Coulomb gauge fixing to improve signal at large Wilson-line displacement and find it could be a major help in improving the signal in the gluon matrix elements. This work helps identify the best operator for studying the gluon quasi-PDF, shows higher hadron boost momentum is needed to implement hybrid-ratio renormalization reliably, and suggests the need to study more diverse set of operators with their corresponding perturbative calculations for hybrid-ratio renormalization to further gluon quasi-PDF study.

Good, William (ORCID:0000000184281003)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1988

The effect of simulated weightlessness on performance and mood

The performance results of the bedrest study at Ames were not what were expected. The Air Combat Maneuvering performance test was tested to assure its reliability. However, the results from this study show a continued increase in performance. One would assume that scores would become constant if not decrease by the first days of bedrest because an inverted position would affect performance. It is also interesting to observe that while the subject's moods deteriorated, their performance improved. Although the performance results were surprising, the mood results were as expected.

Rosenberg, Bonnie↗

DOE OSTI2022

A reliable workflow for improving nanoscale X-ray fluorescence tomographic analysis on nanoparticle-treated HeLa cells

Abstract Scanning X-ray fluorescence (XRF) tomography provides powerful characterization capabilities in evaluating elemental distribution and differentiating their inter- and intra-cellular interactions in a three-dimensional (3D) space. Scanning XRF tomography encounters practical challenges from the sample itself, where the range of rotation angles is limited by geometric constraints, involving sample substrates or nearby features either blocking or converging into the field of view. This study aims to develop a reliable and efficient workflow that can (1) expand the experimental window for nanoscale tomographic analysis of local areas of interest within a laterally extended specimen, and (2) bridge 3D analysis at micrometer and nanoscales on the same specimen. We demonstrate the workflow using a specimen of HeLa cells exposed to iron oxide core and titanium dioxide shell (Fe3O4/TiO2) nanocomposites. The workflow utilizes iterative and multiscale XRF data collection with intermediate sample processing by focused ion beam (FIB) sample preparation between measurements at different length scales. Initial assessment combined with precise sample manipulation via FIB allows direct removal of sample regions that are obstacles to both incident X-ray beam and outgoing XRF signals, which considerably improves the subsequent nanoscale tomography analysis. This multiscale analysis workflow has advanced bio-nanotechnology studies by providing deep insights into the interaction between nanocomposites and single cells at a subcellular level as well as statistical assessments from measuring a population of cells.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Separating Sensor Anomalies From Process Anomalies in Data-Driven Anomaly Detection

Data-driven anomaly detection over time series data is studied from the perspective of separating data anomalies—corresponding to sensor failures—from process anomalies—that arise from equipment or operational failures. Herein, a semi-supervised approach is proposed that utilizes two predictive models trained on non-anomalous data using two different sensor groups as inputs, and a nested hypothesis test to reliably classify data or process anomalies. Conditions are derived on choice of sensor groups to guarantee reliable detection, and a case study is presented to demonstrate the proposed classification approach.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of a Remote Data Collection Method to Study Human-Automation Interaction and Workload

Technological advances have increased the automation of Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles, allowing human operators to manage multiple vehicles at a high-level without the need to understand low-level system behaviors. Previous laboratory studies have explored the relationship between reliability, trust, use of automation and the effects of number of vehicles under supervision on subjective workload. Due to the limitations resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, in-person laboratory studies are not always possible. Therefore, this work aimed to investigate if remote data collection alternatives, such as Amazon’s Mechanical Turk, can provide comparative results as those obtained in laboratory settings. A study was conducted in the context of small drone operations. As expected, higher reliability led to higher trust ratings and the inclusion of more vehicles led to higher workload. In contrast, reliability unexpectedly had no effect on intention to use the automation. Though these results were encouraging, several limitations were identified.

trust↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of fatigue reliability in wind turbines: effects of design turbulence and the Wöhler exponent

Fatigue assessment of wind turbines involves three main sources of uncertainty: material resistance, load, and the damage accumulation model. Many studies focus on increasing the accuracy of fatigue load assessment to improve the fatigue reliability. Probabilistic modeling of the wind's turbulence standard deviation is an example of an approach used for this purpose. Editions 3 and 4 of the IEC standard for the design of wind energy generation systems (IEC 61400-1) suggest different probability distributions as alternatives for the representative turbulence in the normal turbulence model (NTM) of edition 1. There are debates on whether the suggested distributions provide conservative reliability levels, as the established design safety factors are calibrated based on the representative turbulence approach. The current study addresses the debate by comparing annual reliability based on different scenarios of NTM using a probabilistic approach. More importantly, it elaborates on the relative importance of load assessment accuracy in defining the fatigue reliability. Using the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine and the first-order reliability method (FORM), we study the changes in the annual reliability level and its sensitivity to the three main random inputs. We perform the study considering the blade root flapwise and the tower base fore–aft moments, assuming different fatigue exponents in each load channel. The results show that integration over distributions of turbulence in each mean wind speed results in less conservative annual reliability levels than representative turbulence. The difference in the reliability levels varies according to turbulence distribution and the fatigue exponent. In the case of the tower base, the difference in the annual reliability index after 20 years can be up to 50 %. However, the model and material uncertainty have much higher effects on the reliability levels compared to load uncertainty. Knowledge about such differences in the reliability levels due to the choice of turbulence distribution is especially important, as it impacts the extent of lifetime extension through reliability reassessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2015

Non-destructive Evaluation of Bonds Between Fiberglass Composite and Metal

To assess the integrity and reliability of an adhesive joint in an automotive composite component, several non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methodologies are correlated to lap shear bond strengths. A glass-fabric-reinforced composite structure was bonded to a metallic structure with a two-part epoxy adhesive. Samples were subsequently cut and tested in shear, and flaws were found in some areas. This study aims to develop a reliable and portable NDE system for service-level adhesive inspection in the automotive industry. The results of the experimental investigation using several NDE methods are presented and discussed. Fiberglass-to-metal bonding is the ideal configuration for NDE via thermography using excitation with induction heating, due to the conductive metal and non-conductive glass-fiber-reinforced composites. Excitation can be either by a research-grade induction heater of highly defined frequency and intensity, or by a service-level heater, such as would be used for sealing windshields in a body shop. The thermographs thus produced can be captured via a high-resolution infrared camera, with principal component analysis and 2D spatial Laplacian processing. Alternatively, the thermographs can be captured by low resolution thermochromic microencapsulated liquid crystal film imaging, which needs no post-processing and can be very inexpensive. These samples were also examined with phased-array ultrasound. The NDE methods are compared to the lap shear values and to each other for approximate cost, accuracy, and time and level of expertise needed.

Zhao, Selina↗

DOE OSTI2020

Retail Hydrogen Station Reliability Status and Advances

One of the most vital emerging commercial markets for hydrogen is fuel cell-powered mobility including cars, trucks, and buses. These vehicles are refueled via a network of hydrogen fueling stations, with the highest number of U.S. stations being in California. The numbers of both fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and hydrogen stations have increased in the last two years, with anecdotal information from FCEV drivers indicating that station reliability is hurting the consumer acceptability of FCEV technologies. Therefore, this study benchmarks the current state of hydrogen station reliability in practice and presents on-going research that is investigating the failures that are contribute to hydrogen station reliability issues. This is accomplished with an analysis of operation, safety, and maintenance data from hydrogen stations and fuel cell electric vehicles to benchmark the maintenance and failure of hydrogen stations and their components. This analysis, of over 5,000 station maintenance events, presents the leading maintenance categories and failure rates, and is a prerequisite to the development of data-driven reliability improvement plans. We present a reliability growth analysis and on-going research into the root causes of failure for dispensers, a particularly failure-prone subsystem.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2011

Metrics of Balance Control for Use in Screening Tests of Vestibular Function

Decrements in balance control have been documented in astronauts after space flight. Reliable measures of balance control are needed for use in postflight field tests at remote landing sites. Diffusion analysis (DA) is a statistical mechanical tool that shows the average difference of the dependent variable on varying time scales. These techniques have been shown to measure differences in open-loop and closed-loop postural control in astronauts and elderly subjects. The goal of this study was to investigate the reliability of these measures of balance control. Eleven subjects were tested using the Clinical Test of Sensory Interaction on Balance: the subject stood with feet together and arms crossed on a stable or compliant surface, with eyes open or closed and with or without head movements in the pitch or yaw plane. Subjects were instrumented with inertial motion sensors attached to their trunk segment. The DA curves for linear acceleration measures were characterized by linear fits measuring open- (Ds) and closed-loop (Dl) control, and their intersection point (X-int, Y-int). Ds and Y-int showed significant differences between the test conditions. Additionally, Ds was correlated with the root mean square (RMS) of the signal, indicating that RMS was dominated by open-loop events (< 0.5 seconds). The Y-int was found to be correlated with the average linear velocity of trunk movements. Thus DA measures could be applied to derive reliable metrics of balance stability during field tests.

Fiedler, Matthew↗

NASA NTRS1985

Topology design and performance analysis of an integrated communication network

A research study on the topology design and performance analysis for the Space Station Information System (SSIS) network is conducted. It is begun with a survey of existing research efforts in network topology design. Then a new approach for topology design is presented. It uses an efficient algorithm to generate candidate network designs (consisting of subsets of the set of all network components) in increasing order of their total costs, and checks each design to see if it forms an acceptable network. This technique gives the true cost-optimal network, and is particularly useful when the network has many constraints and not too many components. The algorithm for generating subsets is described in detail, and various aspects of the overall design procedure are discussed. Two more efficient versions of this algorithm (applicable in specific situations) are also given. Next, two important aspects of network performance analysis: network reliability and message delays are discussed. A new model is introduced to study the reliability of a network with dependent failures. For message delays, a collection of formulas from existing research results is given to compute or estimate the delays of messages in a communication network without making the independence assumption. The design algorithm coded in PASCAL is included as an appendix.

Li, V. O. K.↗