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At least 559 records · Page 31

Statistical Analysis in Support of Control Fuel Temperature for the Advanced Gas Reactor Experiments

There are four completed tests among a series of Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) irradiation experiments that are being conducted within the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The main objectives of the fuel experimental campaigns are to provide the necessary data on fuel performance to support fuel process development, qualify a fuel design and fabrication process for normal operation and hypothetical accident conditions, and support development and validation of fuel performance and fission product transport models and codes.1 Since this tristructural isotropic fuel is qualified to be used in high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs), it is essential that the testing conditions of fuel irradiations are designed to mimic those in the conceptual gas reactors. As a result, temperatures of the AGR test fuel have to be maintained within a specified range that is typical of the HTGRs. In each AGR capsule, the test fuel temperature is controlled independently using a variable fraction neon and helium gas mixture that fills the gap volume for each capsule. The temperature as measured by a thermocouple (TC) terminated in the graphite holder (which houses fuel compacts) is used as a feedback for the gas flow controllers. Direct temperature measurement for fuel compacts is not possible because contact between a TC head and fuel particle could lead to undesirable failures. Therefore, an ABAQUS based finite element thermal model was created to predict the daily average fuel temperatures during the entire irradiation period.2,3 It is well-known that extended exposure to neutron irradiation and high temperatures leads to changes in geometries of fuel compacts and graphite holder, which result in changes of the gas gap leading to a change in the relationship between TC and fuel temperatures. In addition, TCs are also expected to drift and sometimes fail under irradiation conditions. These facts make maintaining test fuel temperature within a specified range challenging. This paper describes how the regression analysis methods are used in conjunction of calculated fuel temperatures from early irradiation periods (when irradiation effect is relatively small) to effectively control fuel temperature for the remaining irradiation, when irradiation effect became profound. This is particularly important in the event of all TCs in a capsule fail.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Signatures of naturally induced variability in the atmosphere using multiple reanalysis datasets

A multiple linear regression analysis of nine different reanalysis datasets has been performed to test the robustness of variability associated with volcanic eruptions, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and with a specific focus on the 11-year solar cycle. The analysis covers both the stratosphere and troposphere and extends over the period 1979–2009. The characteristic signals of all four sources of variability are remarkably consistent between the datasets and confirm the responses seen in previous analyses. In general, the solar signatures reported are primarily due to the assimilation of observations, rather than the underlying forecast model used in the reanalysis system. Analysis of the 11-year solar response in the lower stratosphere confirms the existence of the equatorial temperature maximum, although there is less consistency in the upper stratosphere, probably reflecting the reduced level of assimilated data there. The solar modulation of the polar jet oscillation is also evident, but only significant during February. In the troposphere, vertically banded anomalies in zonal mean zonal winds are seen in all the reanalyses, with easterly anomalies at 30°N and 30°S suggesting a weaker and possibly broader Hadley circulation under solar maximum conditions. This structure is present in the annual signal and is particularly evident in NH wintertime. As well as the ‘top-down’ solar contribution to Northern Annular Mode variability, we show the potential contribution from the surface conditions allowing for a ‘bottom-up’ pathway. Finally, the reanalyses are compared with both observed global-mean temperatures from the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) and from the latest general circulation models from CMIP-5. The SSU samples the stratosphere over three different altitudes, and the 11-year solar cycle fingerprint is identified in these observations using detection and attribution techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Policy, Permit, Perform: Using City Benchmarking Data and Building Construction Permit History to Identify Energy Performance Improvements

The City of Portland (City) and Multnomah County 2015 Climate Action Plan targets a 40 percent reduction in carbon emissions below 1990 levels by 2030. To reach this goal, the plan includes a key objective to reduce the total energy use of existing buildings by 25 percent. Buildings are responsible for one-half of carbon emissions in Portland, Oregon, U.S., and improving their performance is critical to achieving the City’s climate goals. As part of its climate action planning, the City passed an ordinance on April 22, 2015, requiring commercial buildings 20,000 ft2 and larger to benchmark and disclose annual energy performance metrics through ENERGY STAR® Portfolio Manager® (ESPM), including greenhouse gas emissions, building energy use intensity (EUI) and ENERGY STAR scores. Twenty-five cities in the U.S. have adopted similar policies requiring energy benchmarking. These policies are generating a treasure trove of data about the drivers of building performance, but practitioners are only beginning to link benchmarking data to other datasets to produce actionable insight into improving building performance. In 2016, the City received a financial assistance award from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through the Cities Leading through Energy Analysis and Planning project (Award Number DE-0007737). Portland’s project evaluated the application of the DOE Building Energy Asset Score Tool and rating system developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to commercial buildings that report to the City. The City used building construction permit history to develop Asset Scores for a set of office buildings that reported energy performance for 2015 – the first year the City mandated energy benchmarking and reporting for commercial buildings 50,000 ft2 and larger. The primary project objective was to link energy benchmarking data and commercial building permit data to analyze commercial buildings systems that present the best, specific opportunities to improve energy performance. Integrating these datasets from two City departments, the Bureau of Development Services and the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability, could expand Portland’s use of analytics to inform climate policy decisions and strategic targeting of financial incentives for building owners and managers who are best positioned to improve the performance of their buildings. The project began with the commercial benchmarking data received for 340 commercial buildings that submitted calendar year 2015 energy reports. The City retained Research Into Action and Energy 350 (RIA team) to evaluate this self-reported benchmarking data. Based on a survey of 53 building managers, the RIA team found that most respondents used the City’s compliance tools, including a How-to Guide and Help Desk, and found access to utility data to be straightforward. However, almost one-third of the respondents encountered challenges when estimating the gross floor area (GFA), and some experienced confusion regarding the input of property use types and details into ESPM. Based on the RIA team’s recommendations, the City refined its How-to Guide, created online answers to frequently asked questions, and hosted office hour sessions to help building managers accurately characterize their building’s physical characteristics and operations in ESPM. Concurrently with the RIA team’s evaluation, the City worked with PNNL to estimate DOE Asset Score Preview (Preview) scores for 181 of the 340 commercial buildings that submitted ESPM reports to the City. Asset Score Tool is a web-based tool developed by PNNL for DOE to evaluate and rate the as-built energy efficiency of a building. Asset Score Tool’s full analysis capability runs a detailed energy model based on building geometry, age, envelope, lighting and mechanical systems using standard operating assumptions to give the building a score, similar to a miles per gallon rating for a car. Preview, a simplified deployment of the full Asset Score Tool, provides a preliminary score range using only seven data points, six of which are readily available in the ESPM benchmarking data. Analysis of the combined Preview scores and the operational ESPM scores identified buildings with a high potential for energy improvements through either retro-commissioning and retuning of existing operations or capital investments into building systems. The City contracted Whole Building Solutions (WBS) to mine building permit history and develop full Asset Scores for a subset of 26 office buildings that were eligible for both ENERGY STAR scores and Asset Scores. WBS researched permits and building plans to identify mechanical, lighting and envelope systems and other building characteristics necessary to complete Asset Scores. This historical data was recorded using the web-based Asset Score Tool, which evaluates the as designed energy efficiency of existing buildings. Much of this City information was available online after 2010; however, WBS had to search through microfiche files and the City’s database to obtain permit and plan history prior to 2010. Although building geometry, mechanical system type and basic envelope information was consistently identifiable, WBS found permit data gaps that prevented complete and accurate Asset Scores for most of the office buildings. If the City decides to develop Asset Scores based on building permit information in the future, WBS recommended requiring lighting plans, control diagrams and as-built drawings that reflect how the buildings are actually constructed. In addition, WBS recommended uploading plans and permits from microfiche storage into a more comprehensive, searchable database consistent with the City’s current online permit information. To identify the actual lighting types, WBS and City staff conducted site visits of all 26 office buildings. As part of managing the flow of ESPM and Asset Score data for the project, Earth Advantage, a sub-recipient of the Cities-LEAP award, created a DOE Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) (USDOE 2018) instance for the City and used Asset Score’s Application Programming Interface (API) (Asset Score 2018) capabilities to develop two new features in the SEED Platform™: (1) automated Asset Score Preview ranges calculated based on benchmarking data and the City’s estimate of number of building floors; and (2) storage of full Asset Score information. Leveraging the construction permit history and site visit information for the 26 office buildings, The Cadmus Group (Cadmus) analyzed benchmarking data and Asset Score information to identify opportunities and drivers to improve performance. Correlation and regression analysis of the combined dataset was completed to determine whether building operations or specific systems – mechanical, lighting or envelope – present the best opportunities to improve energy performance. The central outcome of this project was Cadmus’ detailed analysis of the richer dataset that was created by combining the City of Portland’s commercial building permit activity and building-specific energy performance information based on metrics from ESPM and Asset Score Tool. Some of their findings collaborate with well-known facts, such as buildings with less efficient lighting systems are good targets for efficiency improvements through lighting upgrades. This analysis also helped identify that individual heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment efficiency does not necessarily correlate with building performance. However, overall HVAC system performance, as measured with the Total System Performance Ratio (TSPR) metric, is a better indicator of building performance (Goel et al. 2014). As a metric, TSPR considers whole system performance that includes equipment efficiency and system controls, such as resets for static pressure and chilled water setpoints, which can be more effective and financially feasible options for improving building performance. Given the high cost associated with envelope retrofits, opportunities to upgrade envelope insulation are likely to be limited. However, buildings with single-pane and non-thermal break windows are good candidates for window replacements, such as upgrading to double-pane windows with thermal breaks. This research project determined that developing Asset Scores based on site visits is preferable to mining City building permit data. In addition, the use of benchmarking data to develop Asset Score Preview Scores is recommended as a first step in engaging building managers to develop full Asset Scores. Asset Score Tool outputs can help building managers quickly identify opportunities for improvement and then work with the utility incentive administrator and energy service providers to develop their retrofit plan. Where full Asset Scores are available, analysis using a quadrant matrix with ENERGY STAR scores is recommended to identify buildings that present the best opportunities for operational-behavioral improvements versus ones with opportunities for upgrades to physical building systems. This workflow and the tools will help cities, utility incentive administrators, building portfolio managers and energy service providers develop energy programs and strategies for screening and analysis of buildings with the greatest energy savings potential. This report describes the project approach and research results to inform future coordination of ESPM and Asset Score data, including the use of benchmarking data to generate Preview scores. Given better awareness of energy performance, building managers can make more informed decisions to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. With cities, states and jurisdictions adopting benchmarking and auditing ordinances, there are substantial amounts of data submitted to cities that could be used to inform investments in energy efficiency.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Frequency, pressure and strain dependence of nonlinear elasticity in Berea Sandstone

Acoustoelasticity measurements in a sample of room dry Berea sandstone are conducted at various loading frequencies to explore the transition between the quasi-static ( f → 0) and dynamic (few kilohertz) nonlinear elastic response. We carry out these measurements at multiple confining pressures and perform a multivariate regression analysis to quantify the dependence of the harmonic content on strain amplitude, frequency, and pressure. The modulus softening (equivalent to the harmonic at 0f) increases by a factor 2–3 over 3 orders of magnitude increase in frequency. Harmonics at 2f, 4f, and 6f exhibit similar behaviors. In contrast, the harmonic at 1f appears frequency independent. This result corroborates previous studies showing that the nonlinear elasticity of rocks can be described with a minimum of two physical mechanisms. This study provides quantitative data that describes the rate dependency of nonlinear elasticity. Furthermore, these findings can be used to improve theories relating the macroscopic elastic response to microstructural features.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessment of an atmospheric transport model for annual inverse estimates of California greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract Atmospheric inverse estimates of gas emissions depend on transport model predictions, hence driving a need to assess uncertainties in the transport model. In this study we assess the uncertainty in WRF‐STILT (Weather Research and Forecasting and Stochastic Time‐Inverted Lagrangian Transport) model predictions using a combination of meteorological and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements. WRF configurations were selected to minimize meteorological biases using meteorological measurements of winds and boundary layer depths from surface stations and radar wind profiler sites across California. We compare model predictions with CO measurements from four tower sites in California from June 2013 through May 2014 to assess the seasonal biases and random errors in predicted CO mixing ratios. In general, the seasonal mean biases in boundary layer wind speed (< ~ 0.5 m/s), direction (< ~ 15°), and boundary layer height (< ~ 200 m) were small. However, random errors were large (~1.5–3.0 m/s for wind speed, ~ 40–60° for wind direction, and ~ 300–500 m for boundary layer height). Regression analysis of predicted and measured CO yielded near‐unity slopes (i.e., within 1.0 ± 0.20) for the majority of sites and seasons, though a subset of sites and seasons exhibit larger (~30%) uncertainty, particularly when weak winds combined with complex terrain in the South Central Valley of California. Looking across sites and seasons, these results suggest that WRF‐STILT simulations are sufficient to estimate emissions of CO to up to 15% on annual time scales across California.

Bagley, Justin E.↗

Enantioselective Intramolecular Allylic Substitution via Synergistic Palladium/Chiral Phosphoric Acid Catalysis: Insight into Stereoinduction through Statistical Modeling

The mode of asymmetric induction in an enantioselective intramolecular allylic substitution reaction catalyzed by a combination of palladium and a chiral phosphoric acid was investigated by a combined experimental and statistical modeling approach. Experiments to probe nonlinear effects, the reactivity of deuterium-labeled substrates, and control experiments revealed that nucleophilic attack to the π-allylpalladium intermediate is the enantio-determining step, in which the chiral phosphate anion is involved in stereoinduction. Here, using multivariable linear regression analysis, we determined that multiple noncovalent interactions with the chiral environment of the phosphate anion are integral to enantiocontrol in the transition state. The synthetic protocol to form chiral pyrrolidines was further applied to the asymmetric construction of C-O bonds at fully substituted carbon centers in the synthesis of chiral 2,2-disubstituted benzomorpholines.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Validation of Stage N3 of the Eighth Edition AJCC Staging System for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Objectives To validate stage nodal (N)3 of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods This retrospective cohort study extracted NPC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2016. Pathologically confirmed patients with complete data of level IV, N3a, and N3b lymph node metastasis were investigated. The included patients were divided into level IV, N3a, and N3b groups. Five‐year overall survival (OS) and cancer‐specific survival (CSS) were compared among the three groups. Results A total of 693 patients were included: 285 (41.13%) patients in the level IV group, 124 (17.89%) patients in the N3a group, and 284 (40.98%) patients in the N3b group. The 5‐year OS (57.1%, 55.0%, and 55.2%) and CSS (64.4%, 63.5%, and 64.4%) were not different among the level IV, N3a, and N3b groups. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that N stage was not an independent prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91–1.17; P = .65) or CSS (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.89–1.19; P = .70). Conclusion Stage N3 of the 8th edition AJCC staging system for NPC is reasonable. Level of Evidence III Laryngoscope , 131:535–540, 2021

Pan, Xin‐Bin↗

How Small Can We Go? Evaluating Survival, Tag Retention, and Growth of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Implanted with a New Acoustic Microtag

Abstract Recently, an acoustic microtag, called the Eel–Lamprey Acoustic Tag (ELAT), was developed for use in juvenile American Eel Anguilla rostrata and Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus. The ELAT (12.0 × 2.0 mm; 0.088 g in air) has the potential to be used to study other small-bodied fishes. In this pilot study, juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha 52–99 mm fork length (FL) were surgically implanted with an ELAT (n = 99) or remained untagged (control; n = 101). Fish were held for 30 d to evaluate survival, tag retention, and growth. Survival did not differ significantly between control (n = 98 or 97.0%) and tagged fish (n = 95 or 95.9%). Logistic regression analysis suggested that survival was influenced by initial FL and tag burden. Mortalities only occurred in tagged fish with initial FLs of ≤65 mm (FL range = 57–65 mm; tag burdens = 3.8–5.9%). However, a tagged fish with an initial FL of 62 mm or an initial tag burden of 4.1% (FL range = 58–64 mm) was predicted to have a 90% chance of survival, and the smallest fish that survived the study was 54 mm FL (1.8 g; tag burden = 4.9%). Tag retention was high (99%), with only one fish expelling an ELAT during the study. Control fish grew slightly larger than the tagged individuals, but differences in final pooled FLs and weight gains were not significant. Our results demonstrate the successful surgical implantation of the ELAT into Chinook Salmon as small as 54 mm FL (1.8 g).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Population Dynamics and Temporal Trends of Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho

Abstract Because of their long-term listing under the Endangered Species Act, much interest has been placed on estimating population vital rates for Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus, but the biotic and abiotic factors that influence the interannual variability in those vital rates have rarely been evaluated. We used mark–recapture data to estimate fish growth, survival, and trends in abundance for fluvial adult Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho. Over an 8-year period, a total of 1,205 individual Bull Trout were collected at a weir on the East Fork Salmon River (29 km upstream of its confluence with the Salmon River) during June–September, of which 420 were recaptures from prior years. Bull Trout varied in length from 215 to 756 mm and achieved a slightly larger asymptotic length and a slightly lower rate of growth relative to other fluvial and adfluvial Bull Trout populations. Apparent survival averaged 0.42 across all years, which was similar to previous studies estimating apparent survival for Bull Trout. The number of emigrating anadromous salmonid smolts in the upper Salmon River basin positively influenced East Fork Salmon River Bull Trout growth and survival, and survival was higher in years with lower annual discharge. Assessment of population growth via linear regression analysis indicated that the Bull Trout population was increasing during the study period (λ = 1.08; 95% confidence interval = 1.03–1.14). Our findings highlight the ecological link between the abundance of wild and hatchery Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Sockeye Salmon O. nerka, and steelhead O. mykiss smolts and growth and survival of adult Bull Trout in systems where these species occur in sympatry.

Roth, Curtis J.↗

The value of {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 in predicting lymph node micrometastases of pancreatic cancer

Purpose: This study aimed to assess the value of {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) levels in predicting lymph node micrometastases in patients with pancreatic cancer. Patients and methods: A total of 160 patients with pancreatic carcinoma were included in the study from 2012 to 2017. All patients underwent surgical treatment and PET/CT scans as well as tests to measure CA 19-9 levels before surgery. The PET/CT scans were evaluated by 2 nuclear medicine physicians who were blinded to the clinical information and were compared to the postsurgical pathological findings. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the variables that could predict lymph node micrometastases. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to find the best cutoff value of the variables related to predicting lymph node micrometastases. Results: The maximum standardized uptake value (SUV{sub max}) of the primary tumor and CA 19-9 level were potent predictors for determining the lymph node status. The best SUV{sub max} and CA 19-9 cutoff values for predicting lymph node micrometastases were 7.05 (sensitivity = 71.2%, specificity = 76.6%) and 240.55 U/ml (sensitivity = 62.1%, specificity = 79.8%), respectively. Conclusion: Patients with pancreatic cancer with a tumor SUV{sub max} ≥ 7.05 or a CA 19-9 value ≥ 240.55 are likely to have lymph node micrometastases.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Cutting-Balloon Angioplasty Versus Balloon Angioplasty as Treatment for Short Atherosclerotic Lesions in the Superficial Femoral Artery: Randomized Controlled Trial

Purpose: To evaluate the treatments of a short-segment atherosclerotic stenosis in the superficial femoral arteries with the cutting balloon angioplasty (CBA) versus conventional balloon angioplasty [percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA)] in a randomized controlled trial. Material and Methods: The study group comprised 60 patients (33 men, 27 women; average age 64 years) with a short ({<=}5 cm) focal SFA de novo atherosclerotic stenosis associated with a history of intermittent claudication or rest pain. The primary end point of this study was the rate of binary restenosis in the treated segment 12 months after the intervention. All patients were evenly randomized to either the PTA or CBA treatment arms. Follow-up angiograms and ankle-brachial index (ABI) measurements were performed after 12 months. The evaluation of the restenosis rates and factors influencing its occurrence were calculated by logistic regression analysis. Results: In the intention-to-treat analysis, restenosis rates after 2-month follow-up were 9 of 30 (30 %) in the PTA group and 4 of 30 (13 %) in the CBA group (p = 0.117). In the actual treatment analysis, after exclusion of patients who required nitinol stent placement for a suboptimal result after angioplasty alone (5 patients in the PTA group and none in the CBA group), restenosis rates were 9 of 25 (36 %) and 4 of 30 (13 %), respectively (p = 0.049). In the intention-to-treat analysis there were also significant differences in ABI values between the PTA and CBA groups at 0.77 {+-} 0.11 versus 0.82 {+-} 0.12, respectively (p = 0.039), at 12 months. Conclusion: Based on the presented results of the trial, CBA seems to be a safer and more effective than PTA for treatment of short atherosclerotic lesions in the superior femoral artery.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Peripheral Stent Thrombosis Leading to Acute Limb Ischemia and Major Amputation: Incidence and Risk Factors in the Aortoiliac and Femoropopliteal Arteries

PurposeTo report the real-world incidence and risk factors of stent thrombosis in the aortoiliac and femoropopliteal arteries in case of bare nitinol stent (BNS) or covered nitinol stent (CNS) placement from a single-centre retrospective audit.Materials and MethodsMedical records of consecutive patients treated with peripheral stent placement for claudication or critical limb ischemia were audited for definite stent thrombosis defined as imaging confirmed stent thrombosis that presented as acute limb-threatening ischemia. Cases were stratified between aortoiliac and femoropopliteal anatomy. Cox regression analysis was employed to adjust for baseline clinical and procedural confounders and identify predictors of stent thrombosis and major limb loss.Results256 patients (n = 277 limbs) were analysed over a 5-year period (2009–2014) including 117 aortoiliac stents (34 CNS; 12.8 ± 5.0 cm and 83 BNS; 7.8 ± 4.0 cm) and 160 femoropopliteal ones (60 CNS; 21.1 ± 11.0 cm and 100 BNS; 17.5 ± 11.9 cm). Median follow-up was 1 year. Overall stent thrombosis rate was 6.1% (17/277) after a median of 43 days (range 2–192 days) and affected almost exclusively the femoropopliteal segment (12/60 in the CNS cohort vs. 4/100 in the BNS; p = 0.001). Annualized stent thrombosis rates (per 100 person-years) were 12.5% in case of CNS and 1.4% in case of BNS (HR 6.3, 95% CI 2.4–17.9; p = 0.0002). Corresponding major amputations rates were 8.7 and 2.5%, respectively (HR 4.5, 95% CI 2.7–27.9; p = 0.0006). On multivariable analysis, critical leg ischemia and CNS placement were the only predictors of stent thrombosis. Diabetes, critical leg ischemia, femoropopliteal anatomy, long stents and CNS were independent predictors of major amputations.ConclusionsPlacement of long femoropopliteal covered nitinol stents is associated with an increased incidence of acute stent thrombosis and ensuing major amputation. Risks are significantly lower in the aortoiliac vessels and with use of bare nitinol stents.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability

Decadal and longer timescale variability in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has considerable impact on regional climate, yet it remains unclear what fraction of this variability is potentially predictable. This study takes a new approach to this question by demonstrating clear physical differences between NAO variability on interannual-decadal (<30 year) and multidecadal (>30 year) timescales. It is shown that on the shorter timescale the NAO is dominated by variations in the latitude of the North Atlantic jet and storm track, whereas on the longer timescale it represents changes in their strength instead. NAO variability on the two timescales is associated with different dynamical behaviour in terms of eddy-mean flow interaction, Rossby wave breaking and blocking. The two timescales also exhibit different regional impacts on temperature and precipitation and different relationships to sea surface temperatures. These results are derived from linear regression analysis of the Twentieth Century and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and of a high-resolution HiGEM General Circulation Model control simulation, with additional analysis of a long sea level pressure reconstruction. Evidence is presented for an influence of the ocean circulation on the longer timescale variability of the NAO, which is particularly clear in the model data. Finally, as well as providing new evidence of potential predictability, these findings are shown to have implications for the reconstruction and interpretation of long climate records

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Allometric relationships between primary size measures and sapwood area for six common tree species in snow-dependent ecosystems in the Southwest United States

High-elevation, snow-dependent, semiarid ecosystems across southwestern United States are expected to be vulnerable to climate change, including drought and fire, with implications for various aspects of the water cycle. To that end, much less is known about the dynamics of transpiration, an important component of the water cycle across this region. At the individual-tree scale, transpiration is estimated by scaling mean sap flux density by the hydroactive sapwood area (SA). SA also remains a key factor in effectively scaling individual tree water-use to stand level. SA across large spatial scales is normally established by relating SA of a few trees to primary size measures, e.g., diameter at breast height (DBH), tree height ( H ), or canopy diameter (CD). Considering the importance of SA in scaling transpiration, the primary objective of this study was therefore to establish six species-specific (aspen, maple, white fir, ponderosa pine, Douglas fir, Englemann spruce) allometric relationships between SA and three primary size measures (DBH, CD, or H ) across two high-elevation, snow-dependent, semiarid ecosystems in New Mexico and Arizona. Based on multiple statistical criteria (coefficient of determination, index of agreement, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency) and ease of measurement in the forest, we identified DBH as the primary independent variable for estimating SA across all sites. Based on group regression analysis, we found allometric relationships to be significantly ( p < 0.05) different for the same species (ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir) across different sites. Overall, our allometric relationships provide a valuable database for estimating transpiration at different spatial scales from sap flow data in some of our most vulnerable ecosystems.

Forestry↗

Cell Wall Composition and Underlying QTL in an F1 Pseudo-Testcross Population of Switchgrass

Natural genetic variation for reduced recalcitrance can be used to improve switchgrass for biofuel production. A full-sib switchgrass mapping population developed by crossing a lowland genotype, AP13, and upland genotype, VS16, was evaluated at three locations (Ardmore and Burneyville, OK and Watkinsville, GA). Biomass harvested after senescence in 2009 and 2010 was evaluated at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for sugar release using enzymatic hydrolysis and for lignin content and syringyl/guaiacyl lignin monomer (S/G) ratio using pyrolysis molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS). Glucose and xylose release ranged from 120 to 313 and 123 to 263 mg g -1 , respectively, while lignin content ranged from 19 to 27% of the dry biomass. Statistically significant differences were observed among the genotypes and the environments for the cell wall composition traits. Regression analysis showed that a unit increase in lignin content reduced total sugar release by an average of 10 mg g -1 . Quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis detected 9 genomic regions underlying sugar release and 14 for lignin content. The phenotypic variation explained by the individual QTL identified for sugar release ranged from 4.5 to 9.4 and for lignin content from 3.8 to 11.1%. Mapping of the QTL regions to the switchgrass genome sequence (v1.1) found that some of the QTL colocalized with genes involved in carbohydrate processing and metabolism, plant development, defense systems, and transcription factors. Finally, the markers associated with QTL can be implemented in breeding programs to efficiently develop improved switchgrass cultivars for biofuel production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Additional value of systolic wall thickening in myocardial stunning evaluated by stress-rest gated perfusion SPECT

Aim and patients: The aim of the present study is to evaluate the additional value of systolic wall thickening to myocardial perfusion in diagnosing myocardial stunning in patients with angiography proven coronary artery disease. We selected 91 ischemic patients (82 males; mean age 59.7 ± 10.3) with CAD documented by angiography. Ischemia was defined as a summed difference score ≥5. All patients underwent a 2-day gated perfusion SPECT protocol. The patients received a dose of 740 MBq of {sup 99m}Tc-tetrofosmin after stress and at rest. Treadmill maximal exercise tests were performed on all patients. Results: The post-stress LVEF was significantly lower than rest LVEF (48.1% ± 10.3% vs 50.3% ± 10.7%; P = .0001). The wall thickening summed difference score was 4.44 ± 4.13 (P = .0001). At a multivariate regression analysis, only WT-SDS as independent variable was significantly correlated with myocardial ischemia (SDS). We also divided patients according to SDS in those with mild (SDS < 8) and severe (SDS ≥ 8) ischemia. WT-SDS, but not ∆LVEF, was significantly different between groups. Conclusions: WT-SDS, more than the depression in the global function (∆LVEF) of the left ventricle, correlates with the degree of ischemia and better identifies, when present, the stunning phenomenon.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Emergency department overcrowding and its associated factors at HARME medical emergency center in Eastern Ethiopia

Introduction: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding has become a significant concern as it can lead to compromised patient care in emergency settings. Various tools have been used to evaluate overcrowding in ED. However, there is a lack of data regarding this issue in resource-limited countries, including Ethiopia. This study aimed to validate NEDOCS, assess level of ED overcrowding and identify associated factors at HARME Medical Emergency Center, located in Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Harar, Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the HARME Medical Emergency Center, Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, involving a total of 899 patients during 120 sampling intervals. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the agreement between objective and subjective assessments of ED overcrowding. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to identify factors associated with ED overcrowding and statistically significant association was declared using 95% confidence level and a p-value < 0.05. Results: The interrater agreement showed a strong correlation with a Cohen's kappa (κ) of 0.80. The National Emergency Department Overcrowding Study Score demonstrated a strong association with subjective assessments from residents and case team nurses, with an AUC of 0.81 and 0.79, respectively. According to residents' perceptions, ED were considered overcrowded 65.8% of the time. Factors significantly associated with ED overcrowding included waiting time for triage (AOR: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.54–3.27), working time (AOR: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.52–3.26), length of stay (AOR: 2.40; 95% CI: 1.27–4.54), saturation level (AOR: 2.35; 95% CI: 1.31–4.20), chronic illness (AOR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.37–3.53), and abnormal pulse rate (AOR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.06–2.16). Conclusion: The study revealed that ED were overcrowded approximately two-thirds of the time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Unraveling the effects of management and climate on carbon fluxes of U.S. croplands using the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem (LTAR) network

Understanding the carbon fluxes and dynamics from a broad range of agricultural systems has the potential to improve our ability to increase carbon sequestration while maintaining crop yields. Short-term, single-location studies have limited applicability, but long-term data from a network of many locations can provide a broader understanding across gradients of climate and management choices. Here we examine eddy covariance measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes from cropland sites across the United States Department of Agriculture's Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network. The dataset was collected between 2001 and 2020, spanning 13 sites for a total of 182 site-years. Average seasonal patterns of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) were determined, and subsequent regression analysis on these “flux climatologies” was used to identify relationships to mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), cropping systems, and management practices. At rainfed sites, carbon fluxes were better correlated with MAP (r2 ≤ 0.5) than MAT (r2 ≤ 0.22). Net carbon balance was different among cropping systems (p < 0.001), with the greatest net carbon uptake occurring in sugarcane (Saccharum spp. hybrids) and the least in soybean (Glycine max) fields. Crop type had a greater effect on carbon balance than irrigation management at a Nebraska site. Across cropping systems, grain crops often had higher GPP and were more likely to have net uptake when compared to legume crops. This multi-site analysis highlights the potential of the LTAR network to further carbon flux research using eddy covariance measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗