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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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549 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Kaon leptonic and semileptonic decays with $N_f=2+1+1$ HISQ fermions

Precision tests of the Standard Model (SM) currently show a deficit in first-row Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) unitarity. In this talk, we discuss progress towards a correlated analysis of the lattice-QCD inputs needed to test this relation with kaon data using highly improved staggered quarks (HISQ) on the MILC $N_{f}=2+1+1$ configurations. We present the status of a new analysis of light-meson decay constant data where chiral-continuum fits are guided by staggered chiral perturbation theory (SChPT). The goal of SChPT is twofold: it allows us to use data not only at physical pion mass but also at unphysical masses. Moreover, it provides values of ChPT low energy constants (LECs) as well as their correlations. We also present a reanalysis of our previous kaon semileptonic form factor calculation, aiming to estimate correlations between the form factor and light-meson decay constants. We discuss the new methodology, new data included, and present some preliminary results.

Merino, Ramón [Granada U.] (ORCID:000900039150393X↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strong coupling constant from 1-loop improved static energy

The static energy is an excellent observable for extracting the strong coupling $α_s$ on the lattice. For short distances, the static energy can be calculated both on the lattice using Wilson line correlators, and with perturbation theory up to three loop accuracy with leading ultrasoft log resummation. Comparing the perturbative expression and lattice data allows for precise determination of $α_s$. We present early results for 1-loop lattice perturbation theory improvement of the Wilson loop and show how it improves the $α_s$ extraction. We present a preliminary reanalysis of the TUMQCD (2+1)-flavor QCD data.

Leino, Viljami [U. Southern Denmark, QTC; Southern↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding the Cold Season Arctic Surface Warming Trend in Recent Decades

Abstract Whether sea‐ice loss or lapse‐rate feedback dominates the Arctic amplification (AA) remains an open question. Analysis of data sets based upon observations reveals a 1.11 K per decade surface warming trend in the Arctic (70°–90°N) during 1979–2020 cold season (October–February) that is five times higher than the corresponding global mean. Based on surface energy budget analysis, we show that the largest contribution (∼82%) to this cold season warming trend is attributed to changes in clear‐sky downward longwave radiation. In contrast to that in Arctic summer and over tropics, a reduction in lower‐tropospheric inversions plays a unique role in explaining the reduction of the downward longwave radiation associated with atmospheric nonuniform temperature and corresponding moisture changes. Our analyses also suggest that Arctic lower‐tropospheric stability should be considered in conjunction with sea‐ice decline during the preceding warm season to explain AA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metrics for evaluating tropical cyclones in climate data

This manuscript describes a software suite that can be used for objective evaluation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in gridded climate data. Using cyclone trajectories derived from 6-hourly data, a comprehensive set of metrics is defined to systematically compare and contrast products to one another. In addition to annual TC climatologies, attention is paid to spatial and temporal patterns of storm occurrence and intensity. Assessment can be performed either on the global scale or regional domains. Simple to visualize ‘scorecards’ allow for rapid credibility assessment. We showcase three key findings enabled by this suite. First, we compare the representation of TCs in seven current-generation global reanalyses and conclude that higher resolution models and those with TC-specific assimilation contain more accurate storm climatologies. Second, using a free-running Earth system model (ESM) we find that full basin refinement is required in variable-resolution configurations to adequately simulate North Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, upstream refinement over northern Africa offers little benefit in simulating storm occurrence but spatial genesis patterns are improved. Finally, we show that TCs simulated by ESMs can be highly sensitive to individual parameterizations in climate models, with North Atlantic TC metrics varying greatly depending on version of the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variability in Wind Energy Generation across the Contiguous United States

ERA5 provides high-resolution, high-quality hourly wind speeds at 100 m and is a unique resource for quantifying temporal variability in likely wind-derived power production across the United States. Gross capacity factors (CF) in seven independent system operators (ISOs) are estimated using the location and rated power of each wind turbine, a simplified power curve, and ERA5 output from 1979 to 2018. Excluding the California ISO, the marginal probability of a calm (zero power production) is less than 0.1 in any ERA5 grid cell. When a calm occurs, the mean co-occurrence across wind-turbine-containing grid cells ranges from 0.38 to 0.39 for ISOs in the Midwest and central plains [Midcontinent (or Midwest) ISO (MISO), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region], increasing to 0.54–0.58 for ISOs in the eastern United States [Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland interconnection (PJM), New York ISO (NYISO), and New England ISO (NEISO)]. Periods with low gross CF have a median duration of ≤6 h, except in California, and are most likely during summer. Additionally, gross CF exhibit highest variance at periods of 1 day in ERCOT and SPP; on synoptic scales in MISO, NEISO, and NYISO; and on interannual time scales in PJM. This implies differences in optimal strategies for ensuring resilience of supply. Theoretical scenarios show adding wind energy capacity near existing wind farms is advantageous even in areas with high existing installed capacity (IC), while expanding into areas with lower IC is more beneficial to reducing ramps and the probability of gross CF falling below 20%. These results emphasize the benefits of large balancing areas and aggregation in reducing wind power variability and the likelihood of wind droughts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6

This work quantitatively evaluates the fidelity with which the northern annular mode (NAM), southern annular mode (SAM), Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the first-order mode interactions are represented in Earth system model (ESM) output from the CMIP6 archive. Several skill metrics are used as part of a differential credibility assessment (DCA) of both spatial and temporal characteristics of the modes across ESMs, ESM families, and specific ESM realizations relative to ERA5. The spatial patterns and probability distributions are generally well represented but skill scores that measure the degree to which the frequencies of maximum variance are captured are consistently lower for most ESMs and climate modes. Substantial variability in skill scores manifests across realizations from individual ESMs for the PNA and oceanic modes. Further, the ESMs consistently overestimate the strength of the NAM–PNA first-order interaction and underestimate the NAM–AMO connection. Furthermore, these results suggest that the choice of ESM and ESM realizations will continue to play a critical role in determining climate projections at the global and regional scale at least in the near term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Dynamics of Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide in Urban and Rural Regions of China: Urbanization and Policy Impacts

High levels of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) due to human activities pose a serious air pollution issue in China, especially in urban agglomerations. However, limited research has investigated the impact of anthropogenic emissions on higher SO 2 concentrations in urban regions compared to rural areas in China. Here, we analyzed the trends in SO 2 concentrations from 1980 to 2021 in China using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) dataset. SO 2 column concentrations from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) during the years 2007–2021 were also examined for validation and comparison purposes. Eight representative areas, including four urban regions (Pearl River Delta [PRD], Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei [BTH], Yangtze River Delta [YRD], and Sichuan Basin [SCB]) and four rural regions (Northeast Region [NER], Mongolian Region [MR], West Region [WR], and Tibetan Plateau Region [TR]) were selected for the analysis. Overall, a significant but fluctuating increase in SO 2 concentrations over China was observed during 1980–2021. During 1980–1997 and 2000–2010, there was an increase in SO 2 concentration, while during 1997–2000 and 2010–2021, a decreasing trend was observed. The average increase in SO 2 concentration was approximately 16 times higher in urban regions than in the rural background. We also found that SO 2 dynamics were highly associated with expansion of urban areas, population density, and gross domestic product. Nonetheless, since 2007, SO 2 concentrations have exhibited a downward trend, which is mainly attributed to the air pollution policies implemented by the Chinese government. Our findings highlight the need for further studies on the impact of SO 2 on regional climate change in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗