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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Inverse Transport Problems

Determination of the components of a radioactive source/shield system using the system’s radiation signature is of great importance in homeland security, material safeguards, and waste management. Although significant progress has been made toward solving this inverse transport problem in recent years, work remains to be done to quantify the uncertainty in reconstructed results. In this article we apply two Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches, the delayed rejection adaptive metropolis (DRAM) and differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) methods, to solve inverse problems and quantify uncertainty. The DRAM method uses delayed rejection combined with global adaptation of the proposal covariance matrix. Furthermore, the DREAM method hybridizes MCMC sampling with the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. In numerical test cases, the DRAM and DREAM methods are shown to be superior to a first-order inverse Hessian approach for problems with noisy data and multiple unknown quantities, with DREAM converging to the posterior distribution more quickly than DRAM. The DREAM and DRAM results indicate that a full posterior distribution is required to quantify uncertainty in many inverse transport problems.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

MACHINE LEARNING-ENABLED PREDICTION OF TRANSIENT INJECTION MAP IN AUTOMOTIVE INJECTORS WITH UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION

Accurate prediction of injection profiles is a critical aspect of linking injector operation with engine performance and emissions. However, highly resolved injector simulations can take one to two weeks of wall-clock time, which is incompatible with engine design cycles with desired turnaround times of less than a day. Hence, it is important to reduce the time-to-solution of the internal flow simulations by several orders of magnitude to make it compatible with engine simulations. This work demonstrates a data-driven approach for tackling the computational overhead of injector simulations, whereby the transient injection profiles are emulated for a side-oriented, single-hole diesel injector using a Bayesian machine-learning framework. First, an interpretable Bayesian learning strategy was employed to understand the effect of design parameters on the total void fraction field. Then, autoencoders are utilized for efficient dimensionality reduction of the flowfields. Gaussian process models are finally used to predict the spatiotemporal void fraction field at the injector exit for unknown operating conditions. The Gaussian process models produce principled uncertainty estimates associated with the emulated flowfields, which provide the engine designer with valuable information of where the data-driven predictions can be trusted in the design space. The Bayesian flowfield predictions are compared with the corresponding predictions from a deep neural network, which has been transfer-learned from static needle simulations from a previous work by the authors. The emulation framework can predict the void fraction field at the exit of the orifice within a few seconds, thus achieving a speed-up factor of up to 38 x 10(6) over the traditional simulation-based approach of generating transient injection maps.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification for Stochastic Hyperbolic Conservation Laws

Here, we propose a predictor-corrector adaptive method for the study of hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) under uncertainty. Constructed around the framework of stochastic finite volume (SFV) methods, our approach circumvents sampling schemes or simulation ensembles while also preserving fundamental properties, in particular hyperbolicity of the resulting systems and conservation of the discrete solutions. Furthermore, we augment the existing SFV theory with a priori convergence results for statistical quantities, in particular push-forward densities, which we demonstrate through numerical experiments. By linking refinement indicators to regions of the physical and stochastic spaces, we drive anisotropic refinements of the discretizations, introducing new degrees of freedom where deemed profitable. To illustrate our proposed method, we consider a series of numerical examples for nonlinear hyperbolic PDEs based on Burgers’ and Euler’s equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long-Term Methane Emissions Rate Quantification and Alert System for Natural Gas Storage Wells and Fields

The Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and other critical stakeholders (e.g., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), state regulators, and industry) seek to more accurately characterize and quantify methane emissions from natural gas storage wells. These efforts will reduce uncertainties in estimates of these emissions in USEPA’s current Green House Gas Inventory (GHGI) under their Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP; EPA, 2016). Emission factors currently used to estimate methane emissions from gas storage wells are the same factors used for onshore natural gas production wells (USEPA, 2016). This study has developed a robust and representative dataset of emissions from disaggregated gas station wellhead components and related emission factors that will inform future enhancements to the GHGI and GHGRP. Extensive methane emissions measurements and meteorological data were collected from three active storage facilities representing two of the three types of storage facilities (i.e., depleted gas reservoir and salt cavern) to support development of emissions factors specifically for gas storage wells and associated components. Methane emissions were quantified from both above-ground components (e.g., pipe fittings and valves) and seepage from the ground surface in proximity to gas storage wellheads.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A New 1-step Arrhenius Decomposition Model for PBX 9501: Calibration with Isochoric-Adiabatic High-Activation-Energy Asymptotics and Uncertainty Quantification

Here we present a new 1-step Arrhenius thermal decomposition model of PBX 9501. As opposed to previous studies, we use high-energy asymptotic theory, and previously published equations of state to parameterize the model to experimental critical-time data. The model parameters were fit to experimental data using a bootstrapping procedure to capture the effects of experimental uncertainty. Subsequent implementation of the model in a chemicalkinetics ODE solver shows good agreement of times to ignition vs initial temperature in isochoric thermal explosion calculations with the results of the high-energy asymptotic theory. We also compare the resultant ZND structures to those of one of our previously calibrated burn models.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistically-driven Experimental Design to Improve Reference-free Quantification of Small Molecules by Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry

Non-targeted analysis of small molecules and metabolites in unknown, complex samples using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry remains challenging. One of the main bottlenecks is the extensive unannotated regions of metabolomics mass spectrometry data, resulting in knowledge gaps. Small molecule annotation in mass spectrometry data has conventionally relied on reference standards and libraries for compound identification and confirmation, which can constrain compound identification to those molecules already known, thus limiting the ability to discover new knowledge and new markers. Retention time prediction can facilitate and expedite unknown compound identification in non-targeted analysis of complex metabolomics samples. Additionally, accurate retention time predictions can also inform sample mixture design for LC-MS/MS analyses. However, current machine learning-based methods for retention time prediction are typically developed for specific chromatographic platforms and are not generalizable across scales. And while technologies and methods to improve reference-free metabolite identification for more comprehensive annotation of unknowns has received much attention, development of the same for quantitation without reference standards has been much more limited, despite its importance in toxicological, environmental, food safety, forensics, and clinical applications. We believe that a reference-free quantitation strategy that exploits mass spectrometry data already collected for reference-free identification can provide much more insight on unknowns, and move the metabolomics field for more complete unknowns characterization. As such, we pursue two efforts to improve upon current state-of-the-art methods in non-targeted analysis: (1) machine learning-based retention time prediction and (2) statistical design of experiments framework for reference-free quantitation. In this work, we develop and demonstrate (1) a generalizable retention time prediction capability across chromatographic conditions and scales, and (2) a statistical design-based framework for response factor contribution elucidation and reference-free quantitation. Evaluation of our retention time prediction model, PrediToR, showed approximately 24% improvement over current models, and we observed approximately 10X improvement in concentration estimation accuracy from our statistical design-based response factor model over a primarily ionization efficiency-based model. We expect that future efforts to improve upon these new capabilities will further advance non-targeted analysis of small molecules towards truly reference-free metabolomics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization and effects of impurities on carbonate quantification in heterogenous matrices

Mineral carbonation simulates a natural weathering phenomena by breaking down silicates and oxides to form Ca & Mg carbonates. Various mineralization methods have been demonstrated as a potential technique to improve the quality of slags and tailings through neutralization and stabilization of problematic species to yield a product better suited for use in concrete. This study aims to characterize, quantify and analyze carbonates in various carbonated products such as mineralized CaCO 3 , CO 2 mineralized Steel Slags and Mine Tailings. More than 10 samples were analyzed for carbonate measurement and verification from industrial and academic partners that pioneer commercial CO 2 mineralization technologies. The samples were characterized primarily by using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Thermogravimetric Analyses (TGA), and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) to gain insights into CaCO 3 content. A baseline characterization of lab-grade CaCO 3 and MgCO 3 also revealed important considerations for CaCO 3 measurement using TGA alone. The experiments using synthetic lab-grade samples also revealed that the presence of MgCO 3 /MgO can accelerate the decomposition of CaCO 3 and thus can affect measurement parameters. Lab-grade CaCO 3 samples dosed into steel slag and mine tailing also showed significant deviation in their decomposition behavior. These insights are used to inform the development of a standardized protocol for the measurement and verification of carbonate-bearing products.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in electromagnetic observables of nuclei

We present strategies to quantify theoretical uncertainties in modern ab initio calculations of electromagnetic observables in light and medium-mass nuclei. We discuss how uncertainties build up from various sources, such as the approximations introduced by the few- or many-body solver and the truncation of the chiral effective field theory expansion. We review the recent progress encompassing a broad range of electromagnetic observables in stable and unstable nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity↗
DOE OSTI2023

Targeted Quantification of Protein Phosphorylation and Its Contributions towards Mathematical Modeling of Signaling Pathways

Post-translational modifications (PTMs) are key regulatory mechanisms that can control protein function. Of these, phosphorylation is the most common and widely studied. Because of its importance in regulating cell signaling, precise and accurate measurements of protein phosphorylation across wide dynamic ranges are crucial to understanding how signaling pathways function. Although immunological assays are commonly used to detect phosphoproteins, their lack of sensitivity, specificity, and selectivity often make them unreliable for quantitative measurements of complex biological samples. Recent advances in Mass Spectrometry (MS)-based targeted proteomics have made it a more useful approach than immunoassays for studying the dynamics of protein phosphorylation. Selected reaction monitoring (SRM)—also known as multiple reaction monitoring (MRM)—and parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) can quantify relative and absolute abundances of protein phosphorylation in multiplexed fashions targeting specific pathways. In addition, the refinement of these tools by enrichment and fractionation strategies has improved measurement of phosphorylation of low-abundance proteins. The quantitative data generated are particularly useful for building and parameterizing mathematical models of complex phospho-signaling pathways. Potentially, these models can provide a framework for linking analytical measurements of clinical samples to better diagnosis and treatment of disease.

mathematical modeling↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of Sample and Detection Quantification Methods for Salmonella Enterica from Produce

The purpose of this study was to identify and optimize fast and reliable sampling and detection methods for the identification of pathogens that may be present on produce grown in small vegetable production units on the International Space Station (ISS), thus a field setting. Microbiological testing is necessary before astronauts are allowed to consume produce grown on ISS where currently there are two vegetable production units deployed, Lada and Veggie.

methods of salmonella from produce↗
NASA NTRS2016

Performance Metrics, Error Modeling, and Uncertainty Quantification

A common set of statistical metrics has been used to summarize the performance of models or measurements-­ the most widely used ones being bias, mean square error, and linear correlation coefficient. They assume linear, additive, Gaussian errors, and they are interdependent, incomplete, and incapable of directly quantifying un­certainty. The authors demonstrate that these metrics can be directly derived from the parameters of the simple linear error model. Since a correct error model captures the full error information, it is argued that the specification of a parametric error model should be an alternative to the metrics-based approach. The error-modeling meth­odology is applicable to both linear and nonlinear errors, while the metrics are only meaningful for linear errors. In addition, the error model expresses the error structure more naturally, and directly quantifies uncertainty. This argument is further explained by highlighting the intrinsic connections between the performance metrics, the error model, and the joint distribution between the data and the reference.

Quantification↗
NASA NTRS2015

Visualization and Quantification of Rotor Tip Vortices in Helicopter Flows

Helicopter aeromechanics encompasses a highly vortical flow field. The vortices generated at each blade tip contain unsteady, complex, three-dimensional structures, which interact with each other, other blades, the fuselage and various components of the helicopter. It is crucial to understand vortex kinematics and their subsequent dynamic evolution. Much research has been devoted to the understanding of helicopter vortex dynamics, including a number of experimental studies.1-6 In May 2010 Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements of a full-scale UH-60A rotor were acquired in the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC) 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel.1 These measurements were taken at a plane just downstream of the advancing blade in the vicinity of the blade tip—the so-called PIV plane. The resulting PIV data were then processed using an ensemble-average approach to create graphical representations of the vortical wake velocity and vorticity fields, which, in turn, have enhanced the understanding of rotorcraft vortical wake flow field physics and have provided a more detailed validation of vortical wake computer simulations.7 A common approach used to analyze flow field features is to compute and plot color contour maps of various scalar quantities such as pressure, velocity magnitude and vorticity magnitude. For example, the color map of the vorticity magnitude is typically used to determine vortical flow structure. With this approach the vortex core may appear larger or smaller, depending on the contour levels that are selected. Thus, the resulting visualization is sensitive to user-specified contour levels. For vortex core radius measurements, it is more accurate to calculate the vortex core radius using the cross-flow velocity profile across the vortex core. The task of extracting the cross-flow velocity profile can be time consuming with existing tools since the user needs to manually select the core center then specify sampling points along the profile axis. The task becomes even more challenging when the associated grid system uses AMR (Adaptive Mesh Refinement) where the profile axis could span multiple grid blocks. There are a number of existing techniques for profiling of vortex core attributes;8-9 however, these techniques are not fully automatic in that the user still needs to select the vortex core center to compute the cross-flow velocity profile. The present study introduces a new color map scheme that is based on the vortex core radius, which is fully automatic and does not require user intervention. Analysis and visualization of blade tip vortices on the PIV plane using the proposed new color map scheme are described in Section II. The new approach is evaluated using two case studies, which are described in Section III. The paper ends with a summary in Section IV.

Quantification↗