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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Damage Accelerates Ice Shelf Instability and Mass Loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment

Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections.

glaciology↗
NASA NTRS2020

Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016

In the southeast Atlantic, well-defined smoke plumes from Africa advect over marine boundary layer cloud decks; both are most extensive around September, when most of the smoke resides in the free troposphere. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional atmospheric composition models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. A strength of the comparison is a focus on the spatial distribution of a wider range of aerosol composition and optical properties than has been done previously. The sparse airborne observations are aggregated into approximately 2° grid boxes and into three vertical layers: 3–6 km, the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the cloud-topped marine boundary layer. Simulated aerosol extensive properties suggest that the flight-day observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30 % or less. Evaluation against observations indicates that all models have strengths and weaknesses, and there is no single model that is superior to all the others in all metrics evaluated. Whereas all six models typically place the top of the smoke layer within 0–500 m of the airborne lidar observations, the models tend to place the smoke layer bottom 300–1400 m lower than the observations. A spatial pattern emerges, in which most models underestimate the mean of most smoke quantities (black carbon, extinction, carbon monoxide) on the diagonal corridor between 16° S, 6° E, and 10° S, 0° E, in the 3–6 km layer, and overestimate them further south, closer to the coast, where less aerosol is present. Model representations of the above-cloud aerosol optical depth differ more widely. Most models overestimate the organic aerosol mass concentrations relative to those of black carbon, and with less skill, indicating model uncertainties in secondary organic aerosol processes. Regional-mean free-tropospheric model ambient single scattering albedos vary widely, between 0.83 and 0.93 compared with in situ dry measurements centered at 0.86, despite minimal impact of humidification on particulate scattering. The modeled ratios of the particulate extinction to the sum of the black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations (a mass extinction efficiency proxy) are typically too low and vary too little spatially, with significant inter-model differences. Most models overestimate the carbonaceous mass within the offshore boundary layer. Overall, the diversity in the model biases suggests that different model processes are responsible. The wide range of model optical properties requires further scrutiny because of their importance for radiative effect estimates.

Yohei Shinozuka↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Spacecraft Mass Balance as a Diagnostic Tool for Cabin Air Quality

The spacecraft-level mass balance is a powerful tool for diagnosing and decoupling factors influencing cabin air quality, especially with respect to trace contaminant propagation. Successful implementation of this approach relies upon accurate and temporally relevant air quality measurements, which are often challenging to attain for emerging trace contaminants. In addition to the proper interpretation of air quality data trends, a thorough understanding of subsystem-level mass transfer is required to characterize process performance. For many Environmental Control and Life Support System processes, subsystem mass transfer may be predicted based on physicochemical properties and classic unit operation design approaches. Gaps in understanding of process performance should be supplemented with thorough ground testing. A high confidence in the fidelity of one of these two aspects, air quality data or process performance, may help offset uncertainties in the other. At minimum, thresholding assumptions and numerical methods can be imposed to constrain unknown parameters within the physical envelope of the situation at hand. Finally, the complexity of cabin-wide integrated mass balances may be reduced by implementing a phenomenological approach towards subsystem discretization.

Cabin Air-quality↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint Research and Operational Capability Developments

In the last three years, several advancements have been made to produce a new state-of-the-art capability in the field of Aerosciences. NASA’s Aerosciences Evaluations and Test Capabilities (AETC) Portfolio Office has funded a multi-year project to produce the unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) technology as an operational capability in key ground test facilities at NASA. The research and development has primarily been conducted at NASA Ames Research Center’s (ARC) Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT) 11-by 11-ft Transonic Wind Tunnel (TWT). The NASA ARC UPWT is one of the ground test facilities under NASA AETC’s Portfolio Office. AETC’s goals are to provide the tools to deliver the technology innovations and breakthroughs necessary to address increasingly complex research and development challenges. AETC’s integrated approach will consider the complimentary high-end compute capabilities necessary to advance analysis in conjunction with ground experimental capabilities. The uPSP Capability Challenge Project is a demonstration of several different technologies: 1) the unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) technology, and 2) Project: Red Rover, establishing a secure, reliable, fast connection between experimental and computation facilities, leveraging NASA’s computational resources within the High-End Compute Capability (HECC) Project for processing, storing, and sharing data efficiently. This project demonstrates the technical diversity and technical inclusion need to advance the field of Aerosciences. The approach to combine subject matter experts in experimental methods, optical methods, production wind tunnel testing, network engineering, high-end computing, signal processing, grid generation, and visualization while establishing the required infrastructure for subject matter experts to have access to the data while the wind tunnel test is being conducted. The most recent advancements for the uPSP technology have focused on three key areas: development of data products, robust processing pipeline, operational efficiencies and uncertainty quantification.

buffet↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Calipso Version 4.5 Stratospheric Aerosol Subtyping Algorithm

The accurate classification of aerosol types injected into the stratosphere is important to properly characterize their chemical and radiative impacts within the Earth climate system. The updated stratospheric aerosol subtyping algorithm used in the version 4.5 (V4.5) release of the Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) level 2 data products now delivers more comprehensive and accurate classifications than its predecessor. The original algorithm identified four aerosol subtypes for layers detected above the tropopause: volcanic ash, smoke, sulfate/other, and polar stratospheric aerosol (PSA). In the revised algorithm, sulfates are separately identified as a distinct, homogeneous subtype, and the diffuse, weakly scattering layers previously assigned to the sulfate/other class are recategorized as a fifth “unclassified” subtype. By making two structural changes to the algorithm and revising two thresholds, the V4.5 algorithm improves the ability to discriminate between volcanic ash and smoke from pyrocumulonimbus injections, improves the fidelity of the sulfate subtype, and more accurately reflects the uncertainties inherent in the classification process. The 532 nm lidar ratio for volcanic ash was also revised to a value more consistent with the current state of knowledge. This paper briefly reviews the previous version of the algorithm (V4.1 and V4.2) then fully details the rationale and impact of the V4.5 changes on subtype classification frequency for specific events where the dominant aerosol type is known based on the literature. Classification accuracy is best for volcanic ash due to its characteristically high depolarization ratio. Smoke layers in the stratosphere are also classified with reasonable accuracy, though during the daytime a substantial fraction are misclassified as ash. It is also possible for mixtures of ash and sulfate to be misclassified as smoke. The V4.5 sulfate subtype accuracy is less than that for ash or smoke, with sulfates being misclassified as smoke about one-third of the time. However, because exceptionally tenuous layers are now assigned to the unclassified subtype and the revised algorithm levies more stringent criteria for identifying an aerosol as sulfate, it is more likely that layers labeled as this subtype are in fact sulfate compared to those assigned the sulfate/other classification in the previous data release.

Jason L Tackett↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spent Nuclear Fuel Exploratory Roadmaps - 20054

The U.S. Department of Energy manages nearly 2,500 metric tons of heavy metal (MTHM) of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) resulting from several decades of research, testing, and production reactors [DOE 1995]. This SNF is managed at the DOE Hanford Site in Washington State (Hanford), Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and Savannah River Site in South Carolina (SRS). From 1995 to 2004, the Department of Energy (DOE) made several key programmatic decisions, supported by appropriate documentation in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) for the management of SNF [DOE 1995]. These decisions have provided an overarching framework for SNF management, as well as site-specific and SNF-related management decisions for the past two decades. In the years since these decisions were made, with the notable exception of the successful drying and packaging of the production reactor fuel at Hanford, a majority of the decisions have been largely unimplemented. Also, since these decisions were made, a number of changes that bear on considerations relative to the path forward have occurred. A SNF Exploratory Road map activity, identified reasonable alternate pathways for DoE's inventory of SNF. Three fundamental pathways were identified in this activity for the long-term management and disposition of DOE SNF: Direct Disposal Pathway, Existing Processing Pathway and Alternate Processing Pathway. Further actions would be required (e.g., evaluation of NEPA analysis, technology maturity evaluations, refinement of cost and risks, benefits and advantages relative to other alternate paths) to define and inform many key decisions that will result in the selection of the disposition pathways that are most beneficial to the US Government in dispositioning DoE's SNF inventory. DOE is currently managing all SNF safely; however, the age of DOE-owned SNF and facilities for storing and processing SNF, coupled with the uncertainty of the storage duration, necessitates decisions and actions to ensure that the infrastructure will be in place to ensure continued safe and effective long-term management and eventual disposal. The identification of reasonable alternate pathways took these considerations into account in an effort to proactively manage conditions that could challenge the safety of storing and managing DOE SNF over the time periods now contemplated and also to ensure that flexibility is preserved to ensure that the DOE SNF remains compatible with final disposition pathways when they become available. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Wind Loading on CSP Collectors Caused by Turbulent Wind Fluctuations: Insights from a 2-Year Field Campaign

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is a promising solar technology for electricity generation with thermal energy storage and with the additional benefit of industrial heat production. Wind loading on CSP collector structures, such as parabolic troughs or heliostats, is one of the primary drivers of their structural design costs. In particular, dynamic wind loading is a major source of uncertainty in the collector design process, which heavily relies on wind tunnel testing. In the field, the turbulent nature of the incoming wind creates fluctuating loads (support structure loads and resulting mirror deflections) on the collectors, with impacts on fatigue lifetime and optical performance. As is well known, wind tunnel tests cannot entirely reproduce the complex turbulent wind conditions typically observed at full-scale plants. To shed light on this topic, NREL initiated a field campaign at the operational Nevada Solar One (NSO) powerplant that uses parabolic troughs as solar collectors. The aim of the project is a detailed characterization of prevailing wind and turbulence conditions and resulting operational loads on parabolic troughs. We use the published 2-year dataset of high-resolution combined wind and structural loads measurements [1] to characterize the dynamic structural wind response. For quantifying dynamic wind loading, we apply the concept of admittance functions, which are spectral transfer functions that couple the turbulent wind to resulting structural loads (aerodynamic admittance), and to the structural response (mechanical admittance). In practice, aerodynamic admittance describes which turbulent eddy sizes are effective in creating structural loads. The mechanical admittance describes in which frequency ranges these loads are reinforced or dampened by the structure. While these functions are an established concept in civil engineering, their recent application to a single full-scale heliostat [2] proved their broader applicability to CSP collectors. Here, we present a characterization of admittance functions for full-scale parabolic trough collectors and show how wind characteristics (mean wind speed and direction, turbulent kinetic energy, turbulent length scales), the sun-tracking trough angle, and row position alter the admittance functions. Further, we study to which extent the admittance functions are universal for a specific trough geometry and how our findings compare to reported heliostat results. References [1] https://data.openei.org/submissions/5938. [2] Blume, K., Roger, M., and Pitz-Paal, R. 2023b. "Simplified analytical model to describe wind loads and wind-induced tracking deviations of heliostats." Solar Energy, 256, 96-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.03.055.

admittance functions↗
DOE OSTI2026

Component-Level Inverse Design of Transmon Qubits Using Neural Networks

Designing a superconducting qubit to realize specific Hamiltonian parameters typically requires iterating through a time and compute-intensive forward loop in which the designer chooses a layout geometry, simulates it, extracts circuit parameters such as capacitances, and refines the geometry. We study the inverse version of this task using a neural-network workflow that maps target Hamiltonian parameters directly to component-level layout parameters, which we subsequently demonstrate on a planar transmon layout. During training, we pair the inverse model with a frozen forward surrogate model and evaluate the loss in Hamiltonian space rather than in layout-parameter space. In validation against a conventional EM solver, 97% of generated designs produce usable geometries, and the inverse-plus-surrogate pipeline reaches mean percent errors of 0.73% for qubit frequency and 1.58% for anharmonicity, comparable to or below the fabrication and simulation-to-measurement uncertainty expected for academic-process transmon devices of this type. A single pipeline query takes ~60 ms on CPU, versus ~2 min for a conventional EM capacitance extraction on the same hardware, a speedup of approximately 2,000x. Batching minimizes the AI model inference overhead, reducing the runtime to 3.1 microseconds per sample on CPU and 2.6 microseconds per sample on GPU at a batch size of 2048, resulting in speedups of 3.9 x 10^7 and 4.6 x 10^7, respectively, relative to a single conventional CPU EM extraction. Our results indicate that component-level inverse design usefully extends and complements conventional EM simulation, including for small datasets on the order of 1,000 samples.

Seidel, Olivia [Fermilab; Texas U., Arlington]↗
DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning approach to emulation and biophysical parameter estimation with the Community Land Model, version 5

Abstract. Land models are essential tools for understanding and predicting terrestrial processes and climate–carbon feedbacks in the Earth system, but uncertainties in their future projections are poorly understood. Improvements in physical process realism and the representation of human influence arguably make models more comparable to reality but also increase the degrees of freedom in model configuration, leading to increased parametric uncertainty in projections. In this work we design and implement a machine learning approach to globally calibrate a subset of the parameters of the Community Land Model, version 5 (CLM5) to observations of carbon and water fluxes. We focus on parameters controlling biophysical features such as surface energy balance, hydrology, and carbon uptake. We first use parameter sensitivity simulations and a combination of objective metrics including ranked global mean sensitivity to multiple output variables and non-overlapping spatial pattern responses between parameters to narrow the parameter space and determine a subset of important CLM5 biophysical parameters for further analysis. Using a perturbed parameter ensemble, we then train a series of artificial feed-forward neural networks to emulate CLM5 output given parameter values as input. We use annual mean globally aggregated spatial variability in carbon and water fluxes as our emulation and calibration targets. Validation and out-of-sample tests are used to assess the predictive skill of the networks, and we utilize permutation feature importance and partial dependence methods to better interpret the results. The trained networks are then used to estimate global optimal parameter values with greater computational efficiency than achieved by hand tuning efforts and increased spatial scale relative to previous studies optimizing at a single site. By developing this methodology, our framework can help quantify the contribution of parameter uncertainty to overall uncertainty in land model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the Higgs boson production via vector boson fusion and its decay into bottom quarks in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A measurement of the Higgs boson (H) production via vector boson fusion (VBF) and its decay into a bottom quark-antiquark pair ($\mathrm{b\bar{b}}$) is presented using proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 90.8 fb$^{-1}$. Treating the gluon-gluon fusion process as a background and constraining its rate to the value expected in the standard model (SM) within uncertainties, the signal strength of the VBF process, defined as the ratio of the observed signal rate to that predicted by the SM, is measured to be $\mu^\text{qqH}_\mathrm{Hb\bar{b}}$ = 1.01$^{+0.55}_{-0.46}$. The VBF signal is observed with a significance of 2.4 standard deviations relative to the background prediction, while the expected significance is 2.7 standard deviations. Considering inclusive Higgs boson production and decay into bottom quarks, the signal strength is measured to be $\mu^\text{incl.}_\mathrm{Hb\bar{b}}$ = 0.99$^{+0.48}_{-0.41}$, corresponding to an observed (expected) significance of 2.6 (2.9) standard deviations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1983

Space shuttle launch vehicle aerodynamic uncertainties: Lessons learned

The chronological development and evolution of an uncertainties model which defines the complex interdependency and interaction of the individual Space Shuttle element and component uncertainties for the launch vehicle are presented. Emphasis is placed on user requirements which dictated certain concessions, simplifications, and assumptions in the analytical model. The use of the uncertainty model in the vehicle design process and flight planning support is discussed. The terminology and justification associated with tolerances as opposed to variations are also presented. Comparisons of and conclusions drawn from flight minus predicted data and uncertainties are given. Lessons learned from the Space Shuttle program concerning aerodynamic uncertainties are examined.

Hamilton, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

We present several different methods for generating realistic predictive covariance, including Monte-Carlo simulations and more direct linear methods which require the addition of process noise. The Monte-Carlo simulation starts with an epoch uncertainty sample basis and propagates each trial to a time of interest in the future. The variance-covariance of the state elements as well as other higher order sample statistics can be readily computed from the propagated sample. While this method preserves the nonlinear effects on the propagated uncertainty, it is computationally intensive as a statistically significant sample size must be considered in the propagation process. Moreover, if the epoch covariance is optimistic, this can result in an underestimation of the prediction error. Another method is to propagate a state sensitivity matrix simultaneously with the satellite state, which allows the epoch covariances to be propagated forward in a linear fashion. This method does not preserve the non-linearity of the satellite state uncertainty but is much less computationally intensive. The propagated state covariance is the scaled to represent the realistic level of GPM state uncertainty via a "e-tuning process." The tuning process generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Difference tuning strategies are considered and compared via Goodness-of-Fit method testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance.

prediction error↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive management of large-scale ecosystem restoration: increasing certainty of habitat outcomes in the Columbia River Estuary, U.S.A.

Ecological restoration programs in dynamic coastal environments can benefit from adaptive management, including an iterative process for identifying and addressing critical uncertainties. We highlight key developments under the three pillars that have increased the rate of restoration by the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program (CEERP) over 20 years: science, coordination, and management. We show how such programs can be institutionalized to ensure that estuary ecosystems are better understood, conserved, and restored. The principal conservation effort under CEERP is to reconnect historical floodplain wetlands to the mainstem. The program also supports other restoration actions that demonstrate a high potential to benefit ecosystem function and endangered salmon populations, however, there is greater uncertainty regarding these less-utilized techniques. Through adaptive management, we address both technical uncertainty regarding benefits to the environmental resource and programmatic uncertainty pertaining to decision-making. Here, we examine three periods of CEERP growth to establish how complementary research and restoration actions have improved program outcomes over time. We highlight the tools and processes that were developed and integrated into the program to refine program strategy, improve project design, and maximize ecological benefits. CEERP supported 77 restoration projects and reconnected over 7,000 acres of floodplain habitat to the lower Columbia River between 2004 and 2021. Building on these successes, we outline current plans to better engage landowners and local communities, solicit new project types, and maintain enough flexibility within the program to adapt to new priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Extraction and Capture of Water from Martian Regolith Experimental Proof-of-Concept

Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0:Lists in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) as enabling for robust human Mars missionsLO2LCH4 ascent propulsion 25,000 kg oxygen from atmosphere for ascent and life support Atmospheric based ISRU processes less operationally complex than surface based limited concept evaluation to date and Mars surface water property and distribution uncertainty would not allow [Mars soil water processing] to be base lined at this time Limited Concept Evaluation to Date Lunar regolith O2 extraction processing experience Lunar regolith is fluidized and heated to high temperatures with H2 to produce H2O from iron-bearing minerals Mars similarity concept: Soil placed in fluidized bed reactor Heated to moderate temperatures Inert gas flow used to fluidize the bed and help with water desorption Challenges: High-temperature dusty seals Working gas requires downstream separation and recycling to reduce consumables loss Batch process heating thermally inefficient.

in situ resource utilization↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomic masses with machine learning for the astrophysical r process

The astrophysical r process plays a vital role in the production of heavy elements. Modeling of the r process is sensitive to masses and further requires knowledge of masses beyond current experimental reach. Therefore, simulations of the r process offer a unique test bed for predicting mass extrapolations. We take a Machine-Learning (ML) approach to model the masses across the entire chart of nuclides. For the first time, we simulate r-process nucleosynthesis with a physics-based ML mass model. We compare simulated abundances to solar data in order to evaluate the model's performance far from stability. The resulting r-process abundances up to thorium and uranium qualitatively match those of the observed solar system abundance pattern, with the characteristic peaks well positioned. We propagate the mass uncertainties obtained from the ML model to r-process abundance yields to estimate an uncertainty band associated with our approach. The size of the uncertainty band is approximately one order of magnitude which aligns with the uncertainty reported using alternative techniques.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A robust approach to Gaussian process implementation

Abstract. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible modeling technique used to predict outputs and to capture uncertainty in the predictions. However, the GP regression process becomes computationally intensive when the training spatial dataset has a large number of observations. To address this challenge, we introduce a scalable GP algorithm, termed MuyGPs, which incorporates nearest-neighbor and leave-one-out cross-validation during training. This approach enables the evaluation of large spatial datasets with state-of-the-art accuracy and speed in certain spatial problems. Despite these advantages, conventional quadratic loss functions used in the MuyGPs optimization, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), are highly influenced by outliers. We explore the behavior of MuyGPs in cases involving outlying observations and, subsequently, develop a robust approach to handle and mitigate their impact. Specifically, we introduce a novel leave-one-out loss function based on the pseudo-Huber function (LOOPH) that effectively accounts for outliers in large spatial datasets within the MuyGPs framework. Our simulation study shows that the LOOPH loss method maintains accuracy despite outlying observations, establishing MuyGPs as a powerful tool for mitigating unusual observation impacts in the large data regime. In the analysis of US ozone data, MuyGPs provides accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification, demonstrating its utility in managing data anomalies. Through these efforts, we advance the understanding of GP regression in spatial contexts.

Mukangango, Juliette↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-temperature-superposition analysis of diverse datasets by the minimum-arclength method: long-term prediction with uncertainty margins

In a recent publication, we carried out an extensive analysis of an unsupervised method of determining optimum shift factors in time-temperature-superposition of accelerated-aging data that involves minimizing the vertical arclength to obtain the master curve. For synthetic Arrhenius data with a variety of noise distributions, the work showed that, in conjunction with bootstrap-resampling, the method can produce reliable estimates of the mean activation energy along with uncertainty quantification. Here, we apply the above method to six different datasets taken from the published literature and demonstrate accurate prediction of mean activation energy from the data as-is without the need for any pre-processing or fitting. We also compare uncertainty margins computed by second-order bootstrap with that by linear regression theory and show that the former appears to provide consistent margins in the presence of common noise types in real data, including intra-isotherm measurement-errors, sample-to-sample variations, and intrinsic deviation from perfect Arrhenius behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗