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NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of Multiple Precipitation Products and Preliminary Assessment of Their Impact on Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Land Surface States

Land surface models (LSMs) are computer programs, similar to weather and climate prediction models, which simulate the stocks and fluxes of water (including soil moisture, snow, evaporation, and runoff) and energy (including the temperature of and sensible heat released from the soil) after they arrive on the land surface as precipitation and sunlight. It is not currently possible to measure all of the variables of interest everywhere on Earth with sufficient accuracy and space-time resolution. Hence LSMs have been developed to integrate the available observations with our understanding of the physical processes involved, using powerful computers, in order to map these stocks and fluxes as they change in time. The maps are used to improve weather forecasts, support water resources and agricultural applications, and study the Earth's water cycle and climate variability. NASA's Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) project facilitates testing of several different LSMs with a variety of input datasets (e.g., precipitation, plant type). Precipitation is arguably the most important input to LSMs. Many precipitation datasets have been produced using satellite and rain gauge observations and weather forecast models. In this study, seven different global precipitation datasets were evaluated over the United States, where dense rain gauge networks contribute to reliable precipitation maps. We then used the seven datasets as inputs to GLDAS simulations, so that we could diagnose their impacts on output stocks and fluxes of water. In terms of totals, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) had the closest agreement with the US rain gauge dataset for all seasons except winter. The CMAP precipitation was also the most closely correlated in time with the rain gauge data during spring, fall, and winter, while the satellitebased estimates performed best in summer. The GLDAS simulations revealed that modeled soil moisture is highly sensitive to precipitation, with differences in spring and summer as large as 45% depending on the choice of precipitation input.

Gottschalck, Jon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of Expected Time-of-Arrival in UAV Flight Trajectory

One of the foremost requirements for accurate in-flight safety monitoring of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is tracking of their flight trajectory. Existing UAVs leverage autonomous flight functionalities based on trajectory generation algorithms developed in robotic applications such as polynomial or spline curves in order to facilitate kinematic smoothness, minimum vibrations and fuel efficiency. However in practice, the actual path may be subjected to unexpected local weather conditions, unexpected obstacles along the path or abrupt traffic changes in the low-altitude airspace resulting in large errors of the predicted time-of-arrival at way-points. In this study, an approach to quantify and propagate uncertainty in 4D trajectories is proposed. The paper presents a simple error interval propagation method based on the expected cruise speed of the UAV and its associated uncertainty. The uncertainty is then propagated in time to estimate reasonable confidence intervals on the times-of-arrival of the vehicle at each way-point as well as along the entire flight-path. The uncertainty propagation is demonstrated on a state-of-the-art trajectory generation algorithm based on non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) curves. Further, the effect of a stationary wind field is incorporated in the uncertainty propagation approach. The proposed method is implemented on synthetic and real data obtained from flight experiments with a small UAV.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRS1978

General-relativistic astrophysics

The overall relevance of general relativity to astrophysics is considered, and some of the knowledge about the ways in which general relativity should influence astrophysical systems is reviewed. Attention is focused primarily on finite-sized astrophysical systems, such as stars, globular clusters, galactic nuclei, and primordial black holes. Stages in the evolution of such systems and tools for studying the effects of relativistic gravity in these systems are examined. Gravitational-wave astronomy is discussed in detail, with emphasis placed on estimates of the strongest gravitational waves that bathe earth, present obstacles and future prospects for detection of the predicted waves, the theory of small perturbations of relativistic stars and black holes, and the gravitational waves such objects generate. Characteristics of waves produced by black-hole events in general, pregalactic black-hole events, black-hole events in galactic nuclei and quasars, black-hole events in globular clusters, the collapse of normal stars to form black holes or neutron stars, and corequakes in neutron stars are analyzed. The state of the art in gravitational-wave detection and characteristics of various types of detector are described.

Thorne, K. S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

30 Doradus - Ultraviolet and optical stellar photometry

Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (UIT) UV magnitudes in four bands, together with optical B magnitudes, are presented for up to 314 early-type stars located in a 9.7 x 9.7 arcmin field centered on R136. The magnitudes have an rms uncertainty estimated at 0.10 mag from a comparison between the UIT magnitudes and the IUE spectra. Spectral types and E(B-V) color excesses are estimated. The mean color excesses following the two extinction curves agree well with the predictions of the two-component extinction model of Fitzpatrick and Savage (1984). However, the degree of nebular extinction is found to vary systematically by large amounts over the 30 Dor field. The minimum of nebular extinction in the central parts of the nebula suggests that dust has been expelled from this region by stellar winds. It is suggested that the form of the UV extinction curve can be understood as a consequence of the evolutionary state of the stellar population responsible for making the dust grains.

Hill, Jesse K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimating Future Changes of Energy Demand for Heating and Cooling Buildings at NASA Centers GC23J-1198

With its unique and trusted earth observations, NASA is a critical source in informing decisions that will help achieve the U.S. goal of Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions by 2050. NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the energy, agricultural, and building heating/cooling design industries. POWER packages solar and meteorological data from several NASA projects in a user friendly GIS-enabled web services system (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). As part of the development of new data products to support the energy and building heating/cooling design communities, we estimate the changes in energy required to heat and cool buildings in the future climate at 14 different NASA site locations spread throughout the continental United States, as projected by CMIP6 climate models under different emissions scenarios. Bias-corrected downscaled time series of meteorological variables are taken from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Global Daily Downscaled Projections (GDDP-CMIP6) downscaled climate model data. The spread between the different model projections is accounted for by analyzing both the ensemble average of 22 CMIP6 models and 6 representative models with different climate sensitivities and different interannual variability. Changes in energy use are estimated in two ways. First, changes in the total annual heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD, respectively) are calculated relative to the current climate. This is done at all 14 sites. Second, the downscaled time series are used as inputs into RETScreen(R), a clean energy management decision tool, to give an estimate of heating/cooling energy use for a typical office building. We use this estimation method with model data at Langley Research Center. In the next 50 years, the annual total of HDD (CDD) is projected to decrease by 8-38% (increase by 5-28%) at all sites, with the increase in CDD typically a larger magnitude the decrease in HDD. For a typical small office building at Langley Research Center, the amount of energy needed to cool increases by 33-54% and the amount of energy to heat decreases by 29-40%. POWER is working to develop long term climate data services based on these results to include in future data products to provide to users.

Bradley M. Hegyi↗

NASA NTRS1972

Determination of mean surface position and sea state from the radar return of a short-pulse satellite altimeter

Using the specular point theory of scatter from a very rough surface, the average backscatter cross section per unit area per radar cell width is derived for a cell located at a given height above the mean sea surface. This result is then applied to predict the average radar cross section observed by a short-pulse altimeter as a function of time for two modes of operation: pulse-limited and beam-limited configurations. For a pulse-limited satellite altimeter, a family of curves is calculated showing the distortion of the leading edge of the receiver output signal as a function of sea state (i.e., wind speed). A signal processing scheme is discussed that permits an accurate determination of the mean surface position--even in high seas--and, as a by-product, the estimation of the significant seawave height (or wind speed above the surface). Comparison of these analytical results with experimental data for both pulse-limited and beam-limited operation lends credence to the model. Such a model should aid in the design of short-pulse altimeters for accurate determination of the geoid over the oceans, as well as for the use of such altimeters for orbital sea-state monitoring.

Barrick, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Observer-Based Magnetic Bearing Controller Developed for Aerospace Flywheels

A prototype of a versatile, observer-based magnetic bearing controller for aerospace flywheels was successfully developed and demonstrated on a magnetic bearing test rig (see the photograph) and an actual flywheel module. The objective of this development included a fast, yet low risk, control development process, and a robust, high-performance controller for a large variety of flywheels. This required a good system model, an efficient development procedure, and a model-based controller that addressed the key problems associated with flywheel and bearing imbalance, sensor error, and vibration. The model used in this control development and tuning procedure included the flexible rotor dynamics and motor-induced vibrations. Such a model was essential for low-risk scheduling of speed-dependent control parameters and for reliable evaluation of novel control strategies. The successfully tested control prototype utilized an extended Kalman filter to estimate the true rotor principal-axis motion from the raw sensor position feedback. For control refinement, the extended Kalman filter also estimated and eliminated the combined effects of mass-imbalance and sensor runouts from the input data. A key advantage of the design based on the extended Kalman filter is its ability to accurately estimate both the rotor's principal-axis position and gyroscopic rates with the least amount of phase lag. This is important for control parameter scheduling to dampen the gyroscopic motions. Because of large uncertainties in the magnetic bearing and imbalance characteristics, this state-estimation scheme alone is insufficient for containing the rotor motion within the desired 1-mil excursion radius. A nonlinear gain adjustment based on an estimation of the principal-axis orbit size was needed to provide a coarse (nonoptimal), but robust, control of the orbit growth. Control current minimization was achieved with a (steepest gradient) search of synchronous errors in the principal-axis position input data. Actual flywheel tests of this observer-based controller (developed entirely in-house) at the NASA Glenn Research Center showed that the model correctly predicted the rotor orbit growth as a function of rotational speed, and it demonstrated the capability of gain adjustments to arrest this growth. Data from these tests on an actual flywheel module spun to 26,000 rpm proved that the controller was able to contain the shaft motion to within much less than 0.5 mils of radial excursion with axis currents less than 300 mA in root-mean-square estimate. The test speed range was limited because of thermal expansion concerns for this particular flywheel unit, not because of any deficiency in the controller. Simulations for this unit indicated that the controller should be robust up to its top operating speed of 60,000 rpm. Aside from these important achievements, and most significantly, it took less than 1 week to adapt this controller from the simple test rig to the actual flywheel and to demonstrate full five-axis levitation and control. This demonstration showed that both the controller and the model-based development and tuning framework are easily adaptable to a wide range of rotors and bearing configurations and, hence, are capable of reducing design risks and costs for many future flywheel technology developments.

Le, Dzu K.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Applications of Principled Search Methods in Climate Influences and Mechanisms

Forest and grass fires cause economic losses in the billions of dollars in the U.S. alone. In addition, boreal forests constitute a large carbon store; it has been estimated that, were no burning to occur, an additional 7 gigatons of carbon would be sequestered in boreal soils each century. Effective wildfire suppression requires anticipation of locales and times for which wildfire is most probable, preferably with a two to four week forecast, so that limited resources can be efficiently deployed. The United States Forest Service (USFS), and other experts and agencies have developed several measures of fire risk combining physical principles and expert judgment, and have used them in automated procedures for forecasting fire risk. Forecasting accuracies for some fire risk indices in combination with climate and other variables have been estimated for specific locations, with the value of fire risk index variables assessed by their statistical significance in regressions. In other cases, the MAPSS forecasts [23, 241 for example, forecasting accuracy has been estimated only by simulated data. We describe alternative forecasting methods that predict fire probability by locale and time using statistical or machine learning procedures trained on historical data, and we give comparative assessments of their forecasting accuracy for one fire season year, April- October, 2003, for all U.S. Forest Service lands. Aside from providing an accuracy baseline for other forecasting methods, the results illustrate the interdependence between the statistical significance of prediction variables and the forecasting method used.

Glymour, Clark↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessing the Impact of Operational Constraints on the Near-Term Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management Supported Market

An economic impact market analysis was conducted for 16 leading sectors of commercial Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) applications predicted to be enabled by 2020 through the NASA UAS Traffic Management (UTM) program. Subject matter experts from seven industries were interviewed to validate concept of operations (ConOps) and market adoption assumptions for each sector. The market analysis was used to estimate direct economic impacts for each sector including serviceable addressable market, capital investment, revenue recovery potential, and operations cost savings. The resultant economic picture distinguishes the agricultural, pipeline and railroad inspection, construction, and maritime sectors of the nascent commercial UAS industry as providing the highest potential economic value in the United States. Sensitivity studies characterized the variability of select UAS sectors economic value to key regulatory or UTM ConOps requirements such as weight, altitude, and flight over populated area constraints. Takeaways from the analysis inform the validation of UTM requirements, technologies and timetables from a commercial market need and value viewpoint. This work concluded in August 2015 and reflects the state of the UAS industry and market projections at that time.

Air Traffic Management↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Aircraft Landing Times using Mediated Predictions from Existing Systems

We developed a novel approach for predicting the landing time of airborne flights in real-time operations. The first step predicts a landing time by using mediation rules to select from among physics-based predictions (relying on the expected flight trajectory) already available in real time in the Federal Aviation Administration System Wide Information Management system data feeds. The second step uses a machine learning model built upon the mediated predictions. The model is trained to predict the error in the mediated prediction, using features describing the current state of an airborne flight. These features are calculated in real time from a relatively small number of data elements that are readily available for airborne flights. Initial results based on five months of data at six large airports demonstrate that incorporating a machine learning model on top of the mediated physics-based prediction can lead to substantial additional improvements in prediction quality.

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Aircraft Landing Times using Mediated Predictions from Existing Systems

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRS1987

Adaptation, plant evolution, and the fossil record

The importance of adaptation in determining patterns of evolution has become an important focus of debate in evolutionary biology. As it pertains to paleobotany, the issue is whether or not adaptive evolution mediated by natural selection is sufficient to explain the stratigraphic distributions of taxa and character states observed in the plant fossil record. One means of addressing this question is the functional evaluation of stratigraphic series of plant organs set in the context of paleoenvironmental change and temporal patterns of floral composition within environments. For certain organ systems, quantitative estimates of biophysical performance can be made on the basis of structures preserved in the fossil record. Performance estimates for plants separated in time or space can be compared directly. Implicit in different hypotheses of the forces that shape the evolutionary record (e.g. adaptation, mass extinction, rapid environmental change, chance) are predictions about stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental trends in the efficacy of functional performance. Existing data suggest that following the evolution of a significant structural innovation, adaptation for improved functional performance can be a major determinant of evolutionary changes in plants; however, there are structural and development limits to functional improvement, and once these are reached, the structure in question may no longer figure strongly in selection until and unless a new innovation evolves. The Silurian-Devonian paleobotanical record is consistent with the hypothesis that the succession of lowland floodplain dominants preserved in the fossil record of this interval was determined principally by the repeated evolution of new taxa that rose to ecological importance because of competitive advantages conferred by improved biophysical performance. This does not seem to be equally true for Carboniferous-Jurassic dominants of swamp and lowland floodplain environments. In these cases, environmental disruption appears to have been a major factor in shaping the fossil record. This does not mean that continuing adaptation was not important during this interval, but it may indicate that adaptive evolution was strongest in environments other than those best represented in the paleobotanical record.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2007

Technical Evaluation Report for Symposium AVT-147: Computational Uncertainty in Military Vehicle Design

The complexity of modern military systems, as well as the cost and difficulty associated with experimentally verifying system and subsystem design makes the use of high-fidelity based simulation a future alternative for design and development. The predictive ability of such simulations such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational structural mechanics (CSM) have matured significantly. However, for numerical simulations to be used with confidence in design and development, quantitative measures of uncertainty must be available. The AVT 147 Symposium has been established to compile state-of-the art methods of assessing computational uncertainty, to identify future research and development needs associated with these methods, and to present examples of how these needs are being addressed and how the methods are being applied. Papers were solicited that address uncertainty estimation associated with high fidelity, physics-based simulations. The solicitation included papers that identify sources of error and uncertainty in numerical simulation from either the industry perspective or from the disciplinary or cross-disciplinary research perspective. Examples of the industry perspective were to include how computational uncertainty methods are used to reduce system risk in various stages of design or development.

Radespiel, Rolf↗

NASA NTRS2014

Initial Evaluations of LoC Prediction Algorithms Using the NASA Vertical Motion Simulator

Flying near the edge of the safe operating envelope is an inherently unsafe proposition. Edge of the envelope here implies that small changes or disturbances in system state or system dynamics can take the system out of the safe envelope in a short time and could result in loss-of-control events. This study evaluated approaches to predicting loss-of-control safety margins as the aircraft gets closer to the edge of the safe operating envelope. The goal of the approach is to provide the pilot aural, visual, and tactile cues focused on maintaining the pilot's control action within predicted loss-of-control boundaries. Our predictive architecture combines quantitative loss-of-control boundaries, an adaptive prediction method to estimate in real-time Markov model parameters and associated stability margins, and a real-time data-based predictive control margins estimation algorithm. The combined architecture is applied to a nonlinear transport class aircraft. Evaluations of various feedback cues using both test and commercial pilots in the NASA Ames Vertical Motion-base Simulator (VMS) were conducted in the summer of 2013. The paper presents results of this evaluation focused on effectiveness of these approaches and the cues in preventing the pilots from entering a loss-of-control event.

Pilot Cue↗

NASA NTRS1982

Measurement of speech levels in the presence of time varying background noise

Short-term speech level measurements which could be used to note changes in vocal effort in a time varying noise environment were studied. Knowing the changes in speech level would in turn allow prediction of intelligibility in the presence of aircraft flyover noise. Tests indicated that it is possible to use two second samples of speech to estimate long term root mean square speech levels. Other tests were also performed in which people read out loud during aircraft flyover noise. Results of these tests indicate that people do indeed raise their voice during flyovers at a rate of about 3-1/2 dB for each 10 dB increase in background level. This finding is in agreement with other tests of speech levels in the presence of steady state background noise.

Pearsons, K. S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Application of Coupled-Cluster Methods to the Prediction and Interpretation of the Spectra of Molecules of Interest in Atmospheric Chemistry

The quality of fundamental vibrational frequencies determined using the CCSD(T) method (singles and doubles coupled-cluster theory plus a perturbational estimate of the effects of connected triple excitations) is shown to be very good, usually predicting band centers to within +/-8/cm. This approach is applied to several molecules of interest in atmospheric chemistry, including HNO, NO2(+), H2CO, and HOCl. The HNO molecule displays a large and unusual anharmonicity in the H-N stretch. For the calculation of ultraviolet (UV) spectra, the linear response CCSD (LRCCSD) approach (which is equivalent to EOM-CCSD) has been shown to yield vertical excitation energies that are accurate to approximately 0.1 eV for singly excited electronic states. This method together with more approximate methods is used to examine the UV spectra of several molecules important in stratospheric chemistry, including HOCl, Cl2O, ClOOCl, ClOOH, and HOOH.

Lee, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Different MODIS AOD Retrieval Algorithms for PM (sub 2.5) Estimation in the Western, Midwestern and Southeastern United States with Implications for Public Health

This study was part of the research activities of the Center for Applied Atmospheric Research and Education (CAARE) funded by the NASA MUREP (Minority University Research and Education Project) Institutional Research Opportunity (MIRO) Program. Satellite measurements of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) have been shown to be correlated with ground measurements of fine particulate matter less than 2.5 microns PM (sub 2.5), which in turn has been linked to respiratory and heart diseases. The strength of the correlation between AOD and PM (sub 2.5) varies for different AOD retrieval algorithms and geographic regions. We evaluated several Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) AOD products from different satellites (Aqua vs. Terra), retrieval algorithms (Dark Target versus Deep Blue), Collections (5.1 versus 6) and spatial resolutions (10-kilometers versus 3-kilometers) for cities in the Western, Midwestern and Southeastern U.S. We developed and validated PM (sub 2.5) prediction models using remotely-sensed AOD data, which were improved by incorporating meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and wind direction) from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). Adding these meteorological data significantly improved the predictive power of all the PM (sub 2.5) models, especially in the Western U.S. Temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were the most significant meteorological variables throughout the year in the Western U.S. Wind speed was the most significant meteorological variable for the cold season while temperature was the most significant variable for the warm season in the Midwestern and Southeastern U.S. Our study re-establishes the connection between PM (sub 2.5) and public health concerns including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases (asthma, high blood pressure, coronary heart disease, heart attack, and stroke). Using PM (sub 2.5) data and health data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), our statistical analysis showed that heart attack and stroke occurrences had the strongest correlations with PM (sub 2.5).

Environmental Public Health↗

NASA NTRS1994

Interhemispheric asymmetry of the high-latitude ionospheric convection pattern

The assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics technique has been used to derive the large-scale high-latitude ionospheric convection patterns simultaneously in both northern and southern hemispheres during the period of January 27 to 29, 1992. When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(sub z) component is negative, the convection patterns in the southern hemisphere are basically the mirror images of those in the northern hemisphere. The total cross-polar cap potential drops in the two hemispheres are similar. When B(sub z) is positive and absolute value of B(sub y) greater than B(sub z), the convection configurations are mainly determined by B(sub y) and they may appear as normal 'two-cell' patterns in both hemispheres much as one would expect under southward IMF conditions. However, there is a significant difference in the cross-polar-cap potential drop between the two hemispheres, with the potential drop in the southern (summer) hemisphere over 50% larger than that in the northern (winter) hemisphere. As the ratio of absolute value of B(sub y)/B(sub z) decreases (less than one), the convection configuration in the two hemispheres may be significantly different, with reverse convection in the southern hemisphere and weak but disturbed convection in the northern hemisphere. By comparing the convection patterns with the corresponding spectrograms of precipitating particles, we interpret the convection patterns in terms of the concept of merging cells, lobe cells, and viscous cells. Estimates of the ' merging cell' potential drops, that is, the potential ascribed to the opening of the dayside field lines, are usually comparable between the two hemispheres, as they should be. The 'lobe cell' provides a potential between 8.5 and 26 kV and can differ greatly between hemispheres, as predicted. Lobe cells can be significant even for southward IMF, if absolute value of B(sub y) greater than the absolute value of B(sub z). To estimate the potential drop of the 'viscous cells,' we assume that the low-latitude boundary layer is on closed field lines. We find that this potential drop varies from case to case, with a typical value of 10 kV. If the source of these cells is truly a viscous interaction at the flank of the magnetopause, the process is likely spatially and temporally varying rather than steady state.

Lu, G.↗