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At least 559 records · Page 31

Microstructure Modeling of 3rd Generation Disk Alloy

The objective of this initiative, funded by NASA's Aviation Safety Program, is to model, validate, and predict, with high fidelity, the microstructural evolution of third-generation high-refractory Ni-based disc superalloys during heat treating and service conditions. This initiative is a natural extension of the DARPA-AIM (Accelerated Insertion of Materials) initiative with GE/Pratt-Whitney and with other process simulation tools. Strong collaboration with the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is a key component of this initiative and the focus of this program is on industrially relevant disk alloys and heat treatment processes identified by GRC. Employing QuesTek s Computational Materials Dynamics technology and PrecipiCalc precipitation simulator, physics-based models are being used to achieve high predictive accuracy and precision. Combining these models with experimental data and probabilistic analysis, "virtual alloy design" can be performed. The predicted microstructures can be optimized to promote desirable features and concurrently eliminate nondesirable phases that can limit the reliability and durability of the alloys. The well-calibrated and well-integrated software tools that are being applied under the proposed program will help gas turbine disk alloy manufacturers, processing facilities, and NASA, to efficiently and effectively improve the performance of current and future disk materials.

Jou, Herng-Jeng↗

Nutrient and stress tolerance traits linked to fungal responses to global change: Four case studies

In this case study analysis, we identified fungal traits that were associated with the responses of taxa to 4 global change factors: elevated CO2, warming and drying, increased precipitation, and nitrogen (N) enrichment. We developed a trait-based framework predicting that as global change increases limitation of a given nutrient, fungal taxa with traits that target that nutrient will represent a larger proportion of the community (and vice versa). In addition, we expected that warming and drying and N enrichment would generate environmental stress for fungi and may select for stress tolerance traits. We tested the framework by analyzing fungal community data from previously published field manipulations and linking taxa to functional gene traits from the MycoCosm Fungal Portal. Altogether, fungal genera tended to respond similarly to 3 elements of global change: increased precipitation, N enrichment, and warming and drying. The genera that proliferated under these changes also tended to possess functional genes for stress tolerance, which suggests that these global changes—even increases in precipitation—could have caused environmental stress that selected for certain taxa. In addition, these genera did not exhibit a strong capacity for C breakdown or P acquisition, so soil C turnover may slow down or remain unchanged following shifts in fungal community composition under global change. Since we did not find strong evidence that changes in nutrient limitation select for taxa with traits that target the more limiting nutrient, we revised our trait-based framework. The new framework sorts fungal taxa into Stress Tolerating versus C and P Targeting groups, with the global change elements of increased precipitation, warming and drying, and N enrichment selecting for the stress tolerators.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the microstructural stability in a y’-strengthened Ni-Fe-Cr-Al-Ti alloy

Ni-Fe-Cr-Al-Ti alloys, with Ni levels near 50 wt.%, have the potential to develop a microstructure consisting of a face-centered cubic ? matrix with the homogeneous precipitation of fine ordered ?’ precipitates similar to traditional Ni-based superalloys with significantly greater Ni content. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), atom probe tomography (APT), and CALPHAD -based thermodynamic modeling were employed to understand the phase stabilities and microstructural evolution in an age-hardenable Ni-27Fe-18Cr-1Co-1.6Al-3.75Ti-1.2Mo-0.03C (wt%) alloy. The primary heat-treatment of solution annealing at 1121°C for 4h and age-hardening treatment at 760 °C for 16h resulted in a microstructure consisting of fine ?’ precipitates in an austenitic matrix along with grain boundary carbides, consistent with thermodynamic calculations. Long-term aging at 900 °C for 250h resulted in the coarsening of ?’ along with a change in the morphology of the precipitates from spherical to a more cuboidal shape. In addition, ? phase formation was observed concomitant with the partial dissolution of the ?’ phase. The ability of computational thermodynamic models to predict microstructural characteristics is discussed.

Gwalani, Bharat↗

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Mesoscale Rainfall: Statistics of Spatial Averages

A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. A previously developed spectral model of rain statistics that is designed to capture this property, predicts power law scaling behavior for the second moment statistics of area-averaged rain rate on the averaging length scale L as L right arrow 0. In the present work a more efficient method of estimating the model parameters is presented, and used to fit the model to the statistics of area-averaged rain rate derived from gridded radar precipitation data from TOGA COARE. Statistical properties of the data and the model predictions are compared over a wide range of averaging scales. An extension of the spectral model scaling relations to describe the dependence of the average fraction of grid boxes within an area containing nonzero rain (the "rainy area fraction") on the grid scale L is also explored.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗

Evaluating Ensemble Predictions of South Asian Monsoon Low Pressure System Genesis

Abstract Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–22. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events 1–2 days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a false alarm ratio (FAR) of around 50% for 1–2-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing those of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPSs form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias correction.

Suhas, D. L.↗

Chapter 9.12 - Weather, Climatic and Ecological Impacts of Onshore Wind Farms

Wind power is an environmentally sustainable technology that is likely to be part of the solution to the climate change, air pollution, and energy security problems. Despite many positive benefits, the rapid development of wind power has raised concerns about some potential adverse environmental impacts. While converting wind?s kinetic energy into electricity, wind turbines (WTs) modify properties of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) including the vertical profiles and surface-atmosphere exchanges of energy, momentum, mass, moisture, and trace gases. Given the current installed capacity and the projected installation worldwide, wind farms (WFs) are likely becoming a major driver of manmade land use change on Earth. Hence, understanding WT-atmosphere-surface interactions and assessing potential environmental impacts of WFs are of significant scientific, societal and economic importance. Here we review our progress in assessing potential impacts of onshore wind power on weather, climate and vegetation activity. A consensus is emerging based on observations and modeling studies that WFs cause a local to regional warming effect, particularly at nighttime, while the impacts on precipitation, wind patterns, crop yields and vegetation activity are uncertain. The warming effect results simply from vertical heat redistribution within the ABL due to turbine-enhanced vertical turbulent mixing in the wakes. At the global scale, with a substantial installation of WFs, mesoscale and climate models predicted large regional changes but small global impacts on temperature, while the impacts on precipitation, clouds, wind patterns and large-scale circulation have large uncertainties and are region specific and scale dependent. Despite increasing number of research efforts, our assessment of potential WF impacts is still very limited. Although the WF impacts are mostly local and limited to the near-surface ABL, this is the layer where we live and plants grow. Hence, more studies are needed to improve our understanding of WT-atmosphere-surface interactions and our capability to model and project the weather, climatic and ecological impacts of large WFs.

atmospheric boundary layer↗

Structural complexity in ramp-compressed sodium to 480 GPa

Abstract The properties of all materials at one atmosphere of pressure are controlled by the configurations of their valence electrons. At extreme pressures, neighboring atoms approach so close that core-electron orbitals overlap, and theory predicts the emergence of unusual quantum behavior. We ramp-compress monovalent elemental sodium, a prototypical metal at ambient conditions, to nearly 500 GPa (5 million atmospheres). The 7-fold increase of density brings the interatomic distance to 1.74 Å well within the initial 2.03 Å of the Na + ionic diameter, and squeezes the valence electrons into the interstitial voids suggesting the formation of an electride phase. The laser-driven compression results in pressure-driven melting and recrystallization in a billionth of a second. In situ x-ray diffraction reveals a series of unexpected phase transitions upon recrystallization, and optical reflectivity measurements show a precipitous decrease throughout the liquid and solid phases, where the liquid is predicted to have electronic localization. These data reveal the presence of a rich, temperature-driven polymorphism where core electron overlap is thought to stabilize the formation of peculiar electride states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Monte Carlo Simulations of 347H Stainless Steel Aging for the Synthetic Generation of Microstructures Under Creep Conditions

Here, a Monte Carlo simulation method capable of replicating the kinetics of M 23 C 6 precipitation in 347H stainless steels was developed for the purpose of producing synthetic microstructures that approximate its microstructural evolution under aging periods of up to 10,000 hours at temperatures between 600 °C and 750 °C. To accomplish this, experimental data from the literature was used to parameterize simulations and replicate the nucleation and growth kinetics of M 23 C 6 particles within 347H and similar austenitic stainless steel alloys. These simulations were found to have considerable fidelity to previous efforts to study the precipitation of M 23 C 6 in other 300 series stainless steel alloys. Synthetic 347H microstructures were then generated that accounted the effects of aging temperature, duration, dislocation density, and the presence of boron within the microstructure. These simulations predict several key trends, those being that (1) the size of M 23 C 6 precipitates decreased with aging temperature and (2) the growth rate of M 23 C 6 particles decreased with aging temperature. Further, while (3) the addition of dislocation density due to creep conditions resulted in increasing intragranular nucleation of M 23 C 6 precipitates with increasing dislocation density and (4) B additions within the microstructure led to modest increases in precipitate size above 700 °C, which indicates that more complex physics are necessary to account for the presence of B.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Short-Term Rainfall Prediction Based on Radar Echo Using an Improved Self-Attention PredRNN Deep Learning Model

Accurate short-term precipitation forecast is extremely important for urban flood warning and natural disaster prevention. In this paper, we present an innovative deep learning model named ISA-PredRNN (improved self-attention PredRNN) for precipitation nowcasting based on radar echoes on the basis of the advanced PredRNN-V2. We introduce the self-attention mechanism and the long-term memory state into the model and design a new set of gating mechanisms. To better capture different intensities of precipitation, the loss function with weights was designed. We further train the model using a combination of reverse scheduled sampling and scheduled sampling to learn the long-term dynamics from the radar echo sequences. Experimental results show that the new model (ISA-PredRNN) can effectively extract the spatiotemporal features of radar echo maps and obtain radar echo prediction results with a small gap from the ground truths. From the comparison with the other six models, the new ISA-PredRNN model has the most accurate prediction results with a critical success index (CSI) of 0.7001, 0.5812 and 0.3052 under the radar echo thresholds of 10 dBZ, 20 dBZ and 30 dBZ, respectively.

Wu, Dali (ORCID:0000000231177074)↗

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

This study assesses the prediction skill of the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): the UKMO GloSea4, the NCEP CFSv2, and the NASA GEOS-5. Long-term reforecasts made with the EPSs are used to evaluate representations of the AO, and to examine skill scores for the deterministic and probabilistic forecast of the AO index. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper-level wind, and precipitation according to the AO phase. Results demonstrate that all EPSs have better prediction skill than the persistence prediction for lead times up to 3-month, suggesting a great potential for skillful prediction of the AO and the associated climate anomalies in seasonal time scale. It is also found that the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill of the AO in the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that in the earlier period (1983-1996).

Coupled Models↗

Use of Remotely-Sensed Rainfall Data in Global Modeling and Data Assimilation

Precipitation observations derived from microwave sensors available from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the proposed Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) can provide crucial information needed for improving global modeling, data assimilation, and numerical weather prediction. New methodologies are being developed at NASA to make effective use of this new data type in these applications. Currently, global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. We show that assimilating 6-h averaged TRMM rainfall retrievals improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the upper tropospheric moisture in the analysis produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System. The improved analysis also leads to improved short-range forecasts in the tropics. The above results were obtained using a variational assimilation procedure that uses rainfall observations to derive moisture and temperature tendency corrections every 6 hours to compensate for errors arising from imperfect initial conditions and deficiencies in the model physics. We will describe a developmental path towards using space-borne rainfall data to empirically estimate and correct for state-dependent systematic errors in parameterized model physics. The study provides a demonstration of the potential of using remote-sensed rainfall data from microwave instruments to improve the 4-dimensional global datasets for climate analysis and numerical weather prediction.

Hou, Arthur↗

Comparison of excess free energy at an interface according to the applied interpolation scheme for elasticity: A phase-field method

Phase-field modeling is an effective simulation technique for modeling microstructure evolution of elastically anisotropic systems. To introduce the elastic energy contribution in a phase field model, an interpolation scheme is used to define the mechanical properties within the phases and across the continuous interface. Several existing interpolation schemes introduce a potential excess elastic energy at the interface, which undesirable effect on microstructure evolution needs to be evaluated. In this study, we focused on three interpolation schemes including Khachaturyan’ scheme (KHS), Voigt–Taylor’s scheme (VTS), and Steinbach–Apel’s scheme (SAS). Comparisons of these schemes’ performances were performed in three configuration types using the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) framework: bi-crystal, isotropic particle-matrix and anisotropic particle-matrix. The contribution of excess elastic energy on the interface energy as a function of interface width and the computational time to steady-state were evaluated in these three configurations. SAS introduces the lowest excess elastic energy contribution and the VTS has the biggest contribution amongst the considered schemes. Moreover, when modeling precipitation in an anisotropic elastic material, the SAS approach seems to predict more physical convex shapes during growth, making it preferable to KHS and VTS. Finally, as currently implemented, SAS requires the largest computational time and KHS requires the smallest time to reach steady-state amongst the considered schemes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Validating corrosion models: A comparison of governing equations

Experimental validation of Finite Element Method (FEM) models varying electrochemical governing equations, inclusion of chemical reactions, and time on the resultant damage profile for two galvanic couples is explored. Two anode materials (Magnesium AZ31 and Carbon Steel) in contact with a cathode (Stainless Steel 304 L) were modeled in/exposed to NaCl (1 and 0.1 M respectively for the anode materials) for up to one week. The physics approach, inclusion of chemical reactions, and the boundary conditions required to accurately represent the damage profile in FEM models depended on the galvanic couple materials and, ultimately, the corrosion rate. For high rates of corrosion (i.e., magnesium anode), the Nernst-Planck equation with Electroneutrality was sufficient to describe the damage, while, for low rates of corrosion (i.e., carbon steel anode), the Laplace equation was sufficient. In all cases, the most complete governing equation (Nernst-Planck-Poisson Equation) was not necessary to accurately describe the damage. Precipitation reactions in solution also played a critical role in the predicted damage profile, especially for high corrosion rate systems. Finally, for short time periods (< 6 h), the choice of governing equations does not significantly influence damage profile results. Overall, the choice of physics to reduce error in simulations relies on the boundary conditions, geometry, conductivity of the solution, electrochemical potential differences, and time of exposure. The above results are discussed with regard to accuracy and computational savings.

Carbon steel↗

Giant Undulations Driven by Pitch‐Angle Scattering of Time Domain Structures Modulated by Plasmapause Surface Wave

Abstract Plasmapause surface waves (PSWs) near the plasmapause boundary are regarded to be the magnetospheric source of ionospheric auroral giant undulations (GUs) located at the equatorward boundary of diffuse aurora. However, the observational evidence of wave‐particle interaction connecting PSWs and GUs is absent. In this letter, we demonstrate GUs are driven by pitch‐angle scattering of time domain structures modulated by the PSWs, based on the conjugated ionospheric and magnetospheric observations. Specifically, ionospheric GUs are lighted by the pitch‐angle scattering of <1 keV thermal electron and ions and energetic ions with energy up to dozens of keV near the plasmapause. Further, the total fluxes during one PSW period and energy of scattered electron and ions determine the size and luminosity of GUs. Our research provides observational evidence that PSWs cause periodic electron precipitation via modulating the time domain structures rather than the previously predicted chorus or electron cyclotron harmonic waves.

Zhou, Yi‐Jia [Weihai Institute for Interdisciplina↗

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Diverse Land across the Continental United States

The current methods for designing hydrological infrastructure rely on precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency curves. However, they cannot accurately predict flooding caused by snowmelt or rain-on-snow events, potentially leading to underdesigned infrastructure and property damage. To address these issues, next-generation intensity-duration-frequency (NG-IDF) curves have been developed for the open condition, characterizing water available for runoff from rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow. However, they lack consideration of land use land cover (LULC) factors, which can significantly affect runoff processes. We address this limitation by expanding open area NG-IDF dataset to include eight vegetated LULCs over the continental United States, including forest (deciduous, evergreen, mixed), shrub, grass, pasture, crop, and wetland. This NG-IDF 2.0 dataset offers a comprehensive analysis of hydrological extreme events and their associated drivers under different LULCs at a continental scale. It will serve as a useful resource for improving standard design practices and aiding in the assessment of infrastructure design risks. Additionally, it provides useful insights into how changes in LULC impact flooding magnitude, mechanisms, timing, and snow water supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A previously uncharacterized divisome-associated lipoprotein, DalA, is needed for normal cell division in Rhodobacterales

ABSTRACT The bacterial cell envelope is a key subcellular compartment with important roles in antibiotic resistance, nutrient acquisition, and cell morphology. We seek to gain a better understanding of proteins that contribute to the function of the cell envelope in Alphaproteobacteria . Using Rhodobacter sphaeroides , we show that a previously uncharacterized protein, RSP_1200, is an outer membrane (OM) lipoprotein that non-covalently binds peptidoglycan (PG). Using a fluorescently tagged version of this protein, we find that RSP_1200 undergoes a dynamic repositioning during the cell cycle and is enriched at the septum during cell division. We show that the position of RSP_1200 mirrors the location of FtsZ rings, leading us to propose that RSP_1200 is a newly identified component of the R. sphaeroides ’ divisome. Additional support for this hypothesis includes the co-precipitation of RSP_1200 with FtsZ, the Pal protein, and several predicted PG L,D-transpeptidases. We also find that a ∆ RSP_1200 mutation leads to defects in cell division, sensitivity to PG-active antibiotics, and results in the formation of OM protrusions at the septum during cell division. Based on these results, we propose to name RSP_1200 DalA (for division-associated lipoprotein A) and postulate that DalA serves as a scaffold to position or modulate the activity of PG transpeptidases that are needed to form envelope invaginations during cell division. We find that DalA homologs are present in members of the Rhodobacterales order within Alphaproteobacteria . Therefore, we propose that further analysis of this and related proteins will increase our understanding of the macromolecular machinery and proteins that participate in cell division in Gram-negative bacteria. IMPORTANCE Multi-protein complexes of the bacterial cell envelope orchestrate key processes like growth, division, biofilm formation, antimicrobial resistance, and production of valuable compounds. The subunits of these protein complexes are well studied in some bacteria, and differences in their composition and function are linked to variations in cell envelope composition, shape, and proliferation. However, some envelope protein complex subunits have no known homologs across the bacterial phylogeny. We find that Rhodobacter sphaeroides RSP_1200 is a newly identified lipoprotein (DalA) and that loss of this protein causes defects in cell division and changes the sensitivity to compounds, affecting cell envelope synthesis and function. We find that DalA forms a complex with proteins needed for cell division, binds the cell envelope polymer peptidoglycan, and colocalizes with enzymes involved in the assembly of this macromolecule. The analysis of DalA provides new information on the cell division machinery in this and possibly other Alphaproteobacteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Calibration and modification of the constitutive model for the mechanical response of P91

The objective of this first milestone was to calibrate and if necessary, modify a constitutive model predicting the primary and secondary creep response of P91. The overall path to be followed consists of first calibrating this constitutive model against experimental data available from the literature (this milestone). In parallel, data acquired by indentation tests will be used to calibrate the model (this involves transforming the indentation data into equivalent uniaxial tests). An overall comparison of model parameters will allow assessing to what extent these rapid tests can be used to calibrate models predicting the overall mechanical response of the bulk. Given that COVID naturally hindered the gathering of new experimental data, the choice was made to ensure that LANL would have sufficient funds in year two to perform the bulk of the new calibration work. The following report details (i) how and which of the bulk experimental data was selected, (ii) constitutive model formulation, (iii) predictions of the constitutive model: effects of imposed stress, temperature and precipitate content, (iv) future work.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗