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At least 559 records · Page 31

Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016

The Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the December 2016 cyber attack against the Ukrainian Ukrenergo electric transmission utility and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. Industroyer is a modular malware framework designed to deploy several Industrial Control System (ICS) protocol-specific attack payloads to disrupt electricity distribution. Adversaries deployed Industroyer within the target network on a Microsoft Windows endpoint capable of directly manipulating or communicating with ICS. Industroyer abuses the functionality of a targeted ICS’s legitimate control system to achieve its intended impact. Adversaries likely first gained access to Ukrenergo enterprise networks in early 2016 after a successful spearphishing campaign against organizations in the electric power sector. Adversaries then began capturing credentials beginning on 1 December 2016. This allowed access to the ICS environment at the Pivnichna electric transmission substation outside Kyiv through a device dual-homed on the Information Technology (IT) and ICS networks. Adversaries conducted discovery, targeting, and access to this device using information and previously captured credentials from compromised enterprise IT machines. Finally, the adversaries deployed and launched the Industroyer malware just before midnight on 17 December. By midnight, Ukrenergo had lost control of a targeted substation, resulting in electric power outages for over an hour in the city of Kyiv and the Kyiv region. Researchers and analysts identified 31 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 33 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 846 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-nine of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 548 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 353 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 300 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Synergic use of TOMS and Aeronet Observations for Characterization of Aerosol Absorption

The role of aerosol absorption on the radiative transfer balance of the earth-atmosphere system is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the analysis of global climate change. Global measurements of aerosol single scattering albedo are, therefore, necessary to properly assess the radiative forcing effect of aerosols. Remote sensing of aerosol absorption is currently carried out using both ground (Aerosol Robotic Network) and space (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) based observations. The satellite technique uses measurements of backscattered near ultraviolet radiation. Carbonaceous aerosols, resulting from the combustion of biomass, are one of the most predominant absorbing aerosol types in the atmosphere. In this presentation, TOMS and AERONET retrievals of single scattering albedo of carbonaceous aerosols, are compared for different environmental conditions: agriculture related biomass burning in South America and Africa and peat fires in Eastern Europe. The AERONET and TOMS derived aerosol absorption information are in good quantitative agreement. The most absorbing smoke is detected over the African Savanna. Aerosol absorption over the Brazilian rain forest is less absorbing. Absorption by aerosol particles resulting from peat fires in Eastern Europe is weaker than the absorption measured in Africa and South America. This analysis shows that the near UV satellite method of aerosol absorption characterization has the sensitivity to distinguish different levels of aerosol absorption. The analysis of the combined AERONET-TOMS observations shows a high degree of synergy between satellite and ground based observations.

Torres, O.↗

PMU-Based Decoupled State Estimation for Unsymmetrical Power Systems

Modal decomposition of measurement equations has already been shown to simplify the formulation and resulting computational complexity of three-phase state estimation of systems where all the transmission lines are three-phase and fully transposed. When there are non-transposed and/or mixed-phase lines, modal decomposition can no longer fully decouple the threephase measurement equations. Here, this paper addresses the above shortcoming by proposing a simple yet practical solution based on the commonly used numerical compensation techniques. Thus, it enables application of the powerful decoupling approach to any type of three-phase networks which may contain non-transposed or mixed-phase lines and are fully observable by PMUs. The proposed procedure modifies the measurement set by deriving additive terms that compensate for the neglected unsymmetrical effects. It will be shown that unbalanced systems including nontransposed and mixed-phase elements, can still be transformed into three decoupled subsystems and solved in parallel by the proposed approach. Performance of the proposed algorithm is validated against several IEEE test cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Overview of GPM Missions's Ground Validation Program

An important element of the internationally structured Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will be its ground validation research program. Within the last year, the initial architecture of this program has taken shape. This talk will describe that architecture, both in terms of the international program and in terms of the separate regional programs of the principle participating space agencies, i.e., ESA, JAXA, and NASA. There are three overriding goals being addressed in the planning of this program; (1) establishing various new, challenging and important scientific research goals vis-a-vis current ground validation programs supporting satellite retrieval of precipitation; (2) designing the program as an international partnership which operates, out of necessity, heterogeneous sites in terms of their respective observational foci and science thrusts, but anneals itself in terms of achieving a few overarching scientific objectives; and (3) developing a well-designed protocol that allows specific sites or site networks, at their choosing, to operate in a 'supersite' mode - defined as the capability to routinely transmit GV information at low latency to GPM's Precipitation Processing System (PPS). (The PPS is being designed as GPM's data information system, a distributed data system with main centers at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) within NASA, the Earth Observation Research Center (EORC) within JAXA, and a TBD facility to be identified by the ESA s ESTEC facility in Noordwijk.)

Smith, Eric A.↗

Watching the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from a distance: Implications for sustainable water management of the Nile water

Increased demands for sustainable water and energy resources in densely populated basins have led to the construction of dams, which impound waters in artificial reservoirs. In many cases, scarce field data led to the development of models that underestimated the seepage losses from reservoirs and ignored the role of extensive fault networks as preferred pathways for groundwater flow. We adopt an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modeling, and field observations) to assess the magnitude and nature of seepage from such systems using the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydropower project, as a test site. The dam was constructed on the Blue Nile within steep, highly fractured, and weathered terrain in the western Ethiopian Highlands. The GERD Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Terrestrial Water Storage (GRACETWS), seasonal peak difference product, reveals significant mass accumulation (43 ± 5 BCM) in the reservoir and seepage in its surroundings with progressive south-southwest mass migration along mapped structures between 2019 and 2022. Seepage, but not a decrease in inflow or increase in outflow, could explain, at least in part, the observed drop in the reservoir's water level and volume following each of the three fillings. Using mass balance calculations and GRACETWS observations, we estimate significant seepage (19.8 ± 6 BCM) comparable to the reservoir's impounded waters (19.9 ± 1.2 BCM). Investigating and addressing the seepage from the GERD will ensure sustainable development and promote regional cooperation; overlooking the seepage would compromise hydrological modeling efforts on the Nile Basin and misinform ongoing negotiations on the Nile water management.

GRACE and GRACE-FO↗

Geophysical Retrievals in an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Framework for Illuminating Processes Controlling Water Cycle

Focal Area(s): This white paper responds to Focal Area #3: Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses the water-cycle and data-model integration grand challenge. It leverages data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility, and Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE), and Science Focus Area (SFA). The white paper focuses on controlling cloud, precipitation, and radiative properties as observed and simulated by the Earth System Models (ESM). The described framework can be readily applied to any other ensemble of instruments, including satellites and other ground-based networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dual-Comb Spectroscopy to Tethered Balloon System (DCS to TBS) Field Campaign Report

There is a critical need for the ability to detect, quantify, and attribute sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) with high temporal and spatial resolution. Current methods are typically based on continuously operating near-surface point sensors or intermittent aerial/satellite observations. Dual optical frequency comb spectroscopy (“dual-comb spectroscopy”; DCS) is a laser-based technique that can bridge this sensing gap by providing high-precision, high-accuracy, and high-temporal-resolution detection and quantification of trace gases over kilometer-length scales, connecting local and regional observations. A single DCS system can also provide spatial resolution for source/sink attribution with the addition of a few minor optical elements, enabling cross-validation of other observations (e.g., Total Carbon Column Observing Network [TCCON], Orbiting Carbon Observatory [OCO-2/3], Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite [GOSAT-1/2][).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The great observatories for space astrophysics

The nation's strategy for astrophysics research during the rest of this century and into the next is a coordinated, multispectral examination of the universe. NASA plans to launch a family of large orbital observatories, each tuned to a different part of the electromagnetic spectrum. They are as follows: the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO); the Advanced X Ray Astrophysics Facility (AXAF); the Hubble Space Telescope (HST); and the Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF). To complement these sensitive space telescopes, a powerful new radio observatory system is envisioned: the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA), an intercontinental network of radio telescopes, working with radio observatories in space to perform orbiting very long baseline interferometry (OVLBI). Observing the universe across the spectrum requires different kinds of telescopes based on quite different techniques of detection. An optical telescope has little in common with a gamma ray detector; they do not look alike, nor do they operate on the same principles. No single telescope can answer all the questions or make all the discoveries that await.

Source record↗

Envision: An interactive system for the management and visualization of large geophysical data sets

Envision is a software project at the University of Illinois and Texas A&M, funded by NASA's Applied Information Systems Research Project. It provides researchers in the geophysical sciences convenient ways to manage, browse, and visualize large observed or model data sets. Envision integrates data management, analysis, and visualization of geophysical data in an interactive environment. It employs commonly used standards in data formats, operating systems, networking, and graphics. It also attempts, wherever possible, to integrate with existing scientific visualization and analysis software. Envision has an easy-to-use graphical interface, distributed process components, and an extensible design. It is a public domain package, freely available to the scientific community.

Searight, K. R.↗

Real-Time Optical Flux Limits from Gamma-Ray Bursts Measured by the Gamma-Ray Optical Counterpart Search Experiment

The Gamma-Ray Optical Counterpart Search Experiment presents new experimental upper limits on the optical flux from gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Our experiment consisted of a fully automated very wide-field opto-electronic detection system that imaged locations of GRBs within a few seconds of receiving trigger signals provided by BATSE's real-time burst coordinate distribution network. The experiment acquired 3800 observing hours, recording 22 gamma-ray burst triggers within approx. 30 s of the start of the burst event. Some of these bursts were imaged while gamma-ray radiation was being detected by BATSE. We identified no optical counterparts associated with gamma-ray bursts among these events at the mV approx. 7.0-8.3 sensitivity level. We find the ratio of the upper limit to the V-band optical flux, F nu, to the gamma-ray fluence, Phi gamma, from these data to be 1 x 10(exp-18) less than F nu Phi gamma less than 2 x 10(exp -16).

Park, H. S.↗

Earth Science System of the Future: Observing, Processing, and Delivering Data Products Directly to Users

Advancement of our predictive capabilities will require new scientific knowledge, improvement of our modeling capabilities, and new observation strategies to generate the complex data sets needed by coupled modeling networks. New observation strategies must support remote sensing from a variety of vantage points and will include "sensorwebs" of small satellites in low Earth orbit, large aperture sensors in Geostationary orbits, and sentinel satellites at L1 and L2 to provide day/night views of the entire globe. Onboard data processing and high speed computing and communications will enable near real-time tailoring and delivery of information products (i.e., predictions) directly to users.

Crisp, David↗

Biomass-Burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA)

Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially those in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. However, the unique climatology of Southeast Asia is very different than that of Africa and South America, such that large-scale biomass burning causes smoke to interact extensively with clouds during the peak-burning season of March to April. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass burning processes. These gases influence the Earth- atmosphere system, impacting both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, which play an important role in determining cloud lifetime and precipitation, hence, altering the earth s radiation and water budget. Analyses from satellite measurements reveal the reflected solar (emitted thermal) radiation from clouds due to smoke aerosols can be reduced (enhanced) by 100 (20) Watts per square meter over the month of March 2000. In addition, the reduction in cloud spectral reflectance is large enough to lead to significant errors in satellite retrievals of cloud properties (e.g., optical thickness and effective radius). The fresh water distribution in this region is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall; in fact, the predictability of the tropical climate system is much reduced during the boreal spring. Therefore, to accurately assess the impact of smoke aerosols in this region requires continuous observations from satellites, aircraft, ground-based networks and dedicated field experiments. BASE-ASIA initiative has been proposed and will be discussed.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

Contributions of Precipitation and Soil Moisture Observations to the Skill of Soil Moisture Estimates in a Land Data Assimilation System

The contributions of precipitation and soil moisture observations to the skill of soil moisture estimates from a land data assimilation system are assessed. Relative to baseline estimates from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), the study investigates soil moisture skill derived from (i) model forcing corrections based on large-scale, gauge- and satellite-based precipitation observations and (ii) assimilation of surface soil moisture retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). Soil moisture skill is measured against in situ observations in the continental United States at 44 single-profile sites within the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) for which skillful AMSR-E retrievals are available and at four CalVal watersheds with high-quality distributed sensor networks that measure soil moisture at the scale of land model and satellite estimates. The average skill (in terms of the anomaly time series correlation coefficient R) of AMSR-E retrievals is R=0.39 versus SCAN and R=0.53 versus CalVal measurements. The skill of MERRA surface and root-zone soil moisture is R=0.42 and R=0.46, respectively, versus SCAN measurements, and MERRA surface moisture skill is R=0.56 versus CalVal measurements. Adding information from either precipitation observations or soil moisture retrievals increases surface soil moisture skill levels by IDDeltaR=0.06-0.08, and root zone soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.05-0.07. Adding information from both sources increases surface soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.13, and root zone soil moisture skill by DeltaR=0.11, demonstrating that precipitation corrections and assimilation of satellite soil moisture retrievals contribute similar and largely independent amounts of information.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗

Evaluations of Thin Cirrus Contamination and Screening in Ground Aerosol Observations Using Collocated Lidar Systems

Cirrus clouds, particularly sub visual high thin cirrus with low optical thickness, are difficult to be screened in operational aerosol retrieval algorithms. Collocated aerosol and cirrus observations from ground measurements, such as the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET), provide us with an unprecedented opportunity to examine the susceptibility of operational aerosol products to thin cirrus contamination. Quality assured aerosol optical thickness (AOT) measurements were also tested against the CALIPSO vertical feature mask (VFM) and the MODIS-derived thin cirrus screening parameters for the purpose of evaluating thin cirrus contamination. Key results of this study include: (1) Quantitative evaluations of data uncertainties in AERONET AOT retrievals are conducted. Although AERONET cirrus screening schemes are successful in removing most cirrus contamination, strong residuals displaying strong spatial and seasonal variability still exist, particularly over thin cirrus prevalent regions during cirrus peak seasons, (2) Challenges in matching up different data for analysis are highlighted and corresponding solutions proposed, and (3) Estimation of the relative contributions from cirrus contamination to aerosol retrievals are discussed. The results are valuable for better understanding and further improving ground aerosol measurements that are critical for aerosol-related climate research.

Huang, Jingfeng↗

Deep Interacting Multiple Model Filtering

In this paper, a deep learning-based multiple model estimation framework is presented for the state estimation of hybrid dynamical systems from high dimensional observations such as camera images. A low dimensional vector which represents the measurement of the latent dynamical system and its corresponding variance are learned using a deep encoder neural network. An Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) filter is used to generate the latent state estimates and covariances using multiple dynamical models, which can be learned using backpropagation through time. The state estimates of the dynamical system and the corresponding covariance matrix are generated from the latent state estimates and covariance using a deep decoder neural network. The whole network is trained in an end-to-end manner using a loss function which minimizes the negative log-likelihood of the neural network parameters. Simulation results are presented using a 2D bouncing ball example and estimation error statistics are computed which demonstrates the accuracy and consistency of the estimation.

Ghananeel Rotithor↗

Using radar observations to evaluate 3-D radar echo structure simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the Department of Energy has a goal of addressing challenges in understanding the global water cycle. Success depends on correct simulation of cloud and precipitation elements. However, lack of appropriate evaluation metrics has hindered the accurate representation of these elements in general circulation models. We derive metrics from the three-dimensional data of the ground-based Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) network over the US to evaluate both horizontal and vertical structures of precipitation elements. We coarsened the resolution of the radar observations to be consistent with the model resolution and improved the coupling of the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) and E3SM Atmospheric Model Version 1 (EAMv1) to obtain the best possible model output for comparison with the observations. Three warm seasons (2014–2016) of EAMv1 simulations of 3-D radar reflectivity features at an hourly scale are evaluated. A general agreement in domain-mean radar reflectivity intensity is found between EAMv1 and NEXRAD below 4 km altitude; however, the model underestimates reflectivity over the central US, which suggests that the model does not capture the mesoscale convective systems that produce much of the precipitation in that region. The shape of the model-estimated histogram of subgrid-scale reflectivity is improved by correcting the microphysical assumptions in COSP. Different from previous studies that evaluated modeled cloud top height, we find the model severely underestimates radar reflectivity at upper levels – the simulated echo top height is about 5 km lower than in observations – and this result is not changed by tuning any single physics parameter. For more accurate model evaluation, a higher-order consistency between the COSP and the host model is warranted in future studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Optimal Electric Grid Black Start Restoration Subject to Intentional Threats

Efficient restoration of the electric grid from significant disruptions – both natural and manmade – that lead to the grid entering a failed state is essential to maintaining resilience under a wide range of threats. Restoration follows a set of black start plans, allowing operators to select among these plans to meet the constraints imposed on the system by the disruption. Restoration objectives aim to restore power to a maximum number of customers in the shortest time. Current state-of-the-art for restoration modeling breaks the problem into multiple parts, assuming a known network state and full observability and control by grid operators. These assumptions are not guaranteed under some threats. This paper focuses on a novel integration of modeling and analysis capabilities to aid operators during restoration activities. A power flow-informed restoration framework, comprised of a restoration mixed-integer program informed by power flow models to identify restoration alternatives, interacts with a dynamic representation of the grid through a cognitive model of operator decision-making, to identify and prove an optimal restoration path. Application of this integrated approach is illustrated on exemplar systems. Validation of the restoration is performed for one of these exemplars using commercial solvers, and comparison is made between the steps and time involved in the commercial solver, and that required by the restoration optimization in and of itself, and by the operator model in acting on the restoration optimization output. Publications and proposals developed under this work, along with a path forward for additional expansion of the work, and summary of what was achieved, are also documented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Simplifying Analysis of Hierarchical HDF5 and NetCDF4 Files with Xarray-Datatree

NASA’s Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) contains thousands of Earth science datasets from satellites, models, and field campaigns. EOSDIS data are stored in formats that are well supported by the Earth Science community. These formats include the Hierarchical Data Format (HDF), with derivative flavors such as HDF-5 and the Network Common Data Format (NetCDF-4). The HDF specification allows for a directory-like hierarchy within a single file, known as "groups". Observational data and associated metadata within a single file can be distributed amongst multiple internal groups, which can also be nested to multiple levels. Working with datasets that have a group hierarchical structure can be difficult because of the nested structure of groups. Widely used packages, such as xarray, have data models that do not accommodate the hierarchical structure within HDF files, requiring users to traverse the file and open different HDF groups as separate, unrelated objects. Xarray-datatree is a Python package developed to solve the difficulty of traversing HDFs with a hierarchical group structure by creating a tree-like hierarchical data structure in xarray. The tree-like structure allows each group to be accessed once a DataTree object is instantiated. The migration of xarray-datatree into the xarray core library will reduce barriers to accessing Earth science data by eliminating the need to understand and traverse the specific hierarchy of a grouped HDF file.

Eni Awowale↗