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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HelioSwarm: The Swarm is the Observatory

The HelioSwarm Mission will transform our understanding of space plasma turbulence by being the first-of-its-kind simultaneous, multiscale observatory comprising multiple spacecraft. HelioSwarm was competitively selected under the Heliophysics Explorers Program 2019 Medium-Class Explorer (MIDEX) Announcement of Opportunity. The central powered-ESPA Hub spacecraft is co-orbited by eight SmallSat Node spacecraft, together moving through a High Earth Orbit to obtain data in various solar wind regimes. The mission architecture is that of hub-and-spoke, with the larger hub serving as a communications relay between the Nodes and DSN. Mission operations, management, and technical oversight are provided by NASA Ames Research Center; the spacecraft are provided by Northrop Grumman and BCT. The instrument suite includes foreign-contributed instruments and U.S. ones, all under the oversight of University of New Hampshire (which is also the Principal Investigator’s home institution and Science Operations Center). The mission timeline from launch through conclusion of the one-year science mission is provided along with a summarized concept of operations, with particular emphasis on placing the Nodes in their proper relative orbit loops to form the geometry needed for science collection at apogee. A brief discussion of how a combination of legacy tools and custom-created swarm analysis tools are used to design the swarm and sort and visualize the collected science data and telemetry in context is provided. Finally, an exploration of the pathfinding nature of HelioSwarm and some implications for future large scientific swarms is offered.

Heliophysics↗
NASA NTRS2015

Thermal Testing and Model Correlation of the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Observatories

International Conference on Envronmental Systems (ICES), Seattle WA NCTS 20964-15. The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission is a Solar Terrestrial Probes mission comprising four identically instrumented spacecraft that will use Earths magnetosphere as a laboratory tostudy the microphysics of three fundamental plasma processes: magnetic reconnection, energetic particle acceleration, and turbulence. This paper presents the complete thermal balance (TB) test performed on the first of four observatories to go through thermal vacuum (TV) and the minibalance testing that was performed on the subsequent observatories to provide a comparison of all four. The TV and TB tests were conducted in a thermal vacuum chamber at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) in Washington, D.C. with the vacuum level higher than 1.3 x 10-4 Pa (10-6 torr)and the surrounding temperature achieving -180 C. Three TB test cases were performed that included hot operational science, cold operational science and a cold survival case. In addition to the three balance cases a two hour eclipse and a four hour eclipse simulation was performed during the TV test to provide additional transient data points that represent the orbit in eclipse (or Earth's shadow) The goal was to perform testing such that the flight orbital environments could be simulated as closely as possible. A thermal model correlation between the thermal analysis and the test results was completed. Over 400 1-Wire temperature sensors, 200 thermocouples and 125 flight thermistor temperature sensors recorded data during TV and TB testing. These temperatureversus time profiles and their agreements with the analytical results obtained using Thermal Desktop and SINDAFLUINT are discussed. The model correlation for the thermal mathematical model (TMM) is conducted based on the numerical analysis results and the test data. The philosophy of model correlation was to correlate the model to within 3 C of the test data using the standard deviation and mean deviation error calculation. Individual temperature error goal is to be within 5 C and the heater power goal is to be within 5 of test data. The results of the model correlation are discussed and the effect of some material and interface parameters on the temperature profiles are presented.

Thermal↗
NASA NTRS2015

Thermal Testing and Model Correlation of the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Observatories

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission is a Solar Terrestrial Probes mission comprising four identically instrumented spacecraft that will use Earth's magnetosphere as a laboratory to study the microphysics of three fundamental plasma processes: magnetic reconnection, energetic particle acceleration, and turbulence. This paper presents the complete thermal balance (TB) test performed on the first of four observatories to go through thermal vacuum (TV) and the minibalance testing that was performed on the subsequent observatories to provide a comparison of all four. The TV and TB tests were conducted in a thermal vacuum chamber at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) in Washington, D.C. with the vacuum level higher than 1.3 x 10 (sup -4) pascals (10 (sup -6) torr) and the surrounding temperature achieving -180 degrees Centigrade. Three TB test cases were performed that included hot operational science, cold operational science and a cold survival case. In addition to the three balance cases a two hour eclipse and a four hour eclipse simulation was performed during the TV test to provide additional transient data points that represent the orbit in eclipse (or Earth's shadow) The goal was to perform testing such that the flight orbital environments could be simulated as closely as possible. A thermal model correlation between the thermal analysis and the test results was completed. Over 400 1-Wire temperature sensors, 200 thermocouples and 125 flight thermistor temperature sensors recorded data during TV and TB testing. These temperature versus time profiles and their agreements with the analytical results obtained using Thermal Desktop and SINDA/FLUINT are discussed. The model correlation for the thermal mathematical model (TMM) is conducted based on the numerical analysis results and the test data. The philosophy of model correlation was to correlate the model to within 3 degrees Centigrade of the test data using the standard deviation and mean deviation error calculation. Individual temperature error goal is to be within 5 degrees Centigrade and the heater power goal is to be within 5 percent of test data. The results of the model correlation are discussed and the effect of some material and interface parameters on the temperature profiles are presented.

Correlation↗
DOE OSTI2024

A network approach for multiscale catchment classification using traits

Abstract. The classification of river catchments into groups with similar biophysical characteristics is useful to understand and predict their hydrological behavior. The increasing availability of remote sensing and other large-scale geospatial datasets has enabled the use of advanced data-driven approaches to classify catchments using traits such as topography, geology, climate, land cover, land use, and human influence. Unsupervised clustering algorithms based on the Euclidean distance are commonly used for trait-based classification but are not suitable for highly dimensional data. In this study we present a new network-based method for multi-scale catchment classification, which can be applied to large datasets and used to determine the traits associated with different catchment groups. In this framework, two networks are analyzed in parallel: the first being where the nodes are traits and the second being where the nodes are catchments. In both cases, edges represent pairwise similarity, and a network cluster detection algorithm is used for the classification. The trait network is used to investigate redundancy in the trait data and to condense this information into a small number of interpretable categories. The catchments network is used to classify the catchments into clusters and to identify representative catchments for the different groups using the degree centrality metric. We apply this method to classify 9067 river catchments across the contiguous United States at both regional and continental scales using 274 non-categorical traits. At the continental scale, we identify 25 interpretable trait categories and 34 catchment clusters of sizes greater than 50. We find that catchments with similar trait categories are typically located in the same region, with different spatial patterns emerging among clusters dominated by natural and anthropogenic traits. We also find that the catchment clusters exhibit distinct hydrological behavior based on an analysis of streamflow indices. This network approach provides several advantages over traditional means of classification, including better separation of clusters, the use of alternate similarity metrics that are more suitable for highly dimensional data, and reducing redundancy in the trait information. The paired catchment–trait networks enable analysis of hydrological behavior using the dominant trait categories for each catchment cluster. The approach can be used at multiple spatial scales since the network topologies adjust automatically to reflect the trait patterns at the scale of investigation. Finally, the representative catchments identified as hub nodes in the network can be used to guide transferable observational and modeling strategies. The method is broadly applicable beyond hydrology for classification of other complex systems that utilize different types of trait datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distinguishing Mesoscale Polar Order (Unidirectional vs Bidirectional) of Cellulose Microfibrils in Plant Cell Walls Using Sum Frequency Generation Spectroscopy

Cellulose in plant cell walls are synthesized as crystalline microfibrils with diameters of 3–4 nm and lengths of around 1–10 μm. These microfibrils are known to be the backbone of cell walls, and their multiscale three-dimensional organization plays a critical role in cell wall functions including plant growth and recalcitrance to degradation. The mesoscale organization of microfibrils over a 1–100 nm range in cell walls is challenging to resolve because most characterization techniques investigating this length scale suffer from low spatial resolution, sample preparation artifacts, or inaccessibility of specific cell types. Here, we report a sum frequency generation (SFG) study determining the mesoscale polarity of cellulose microfibrils in intact plant cell walls. SFG is a nonlinear optical spectroscopy technique sensitive to the molecular-to-mesoscale order of noncentrosymmetric domains in amorphous matrices. However, the quantitative theoretical model to unravel the effect of polarity in packing of noncentrosymmetric domains on SFG spectral features has remained unresolved. In this work, we show how the phase synchronization principle of the SFG process is used to predict the relative intensities of vibrational modes with different polar angles from the noncentrosymmetric domain axis. Applying this model calculation for the first time and employing SFG microscopy, we found that cellulose microfibrils in certain xylem cell walls are deposited unidirectionally (or biased in one direction) instead of the bidirectional polarity which was believed to be dominant in plant cell walls from volume-averaged characterizations of macroscopic samples. Here, with this advancement in SFG analysis, one can now determine the relative polarity of noncentrosymmetric domains such as crystalline biopolymers interspersed in amorphous polymer matrices, which will open opportunities to study new questions that have not been conceived in the past.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2010

Method of Obtaining High Resolution Intrinsic Wire Boom Damping Parameters for Multi-Body Dynamics Simulations

The goal of NASA's Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission is to understand magnetic reconnection with sensor measurements from four spinning satellites flown in a tight tetrahedron formation. Four of the six electric field sensors on each satellite are located at the end of 60- meter wire booms to increase measurement sensitivity in the spin plane and to minimize motion coupling from perturbations on the main body. A propulsion burn however, might induce boom oscillations that could impact science measurements if oscillations do not damp to values on the order of 0.1 degree in a timely fashion. Large damping time constants could also adversely affect flight dynamics and attitude control performance. In this paper, we will discuss the implementation of a high resolution method for calculating the boom's intrinsic damping, which was used in multi-body dynamics simulations. In summary, experimental data was obtained with a scaled-down boom, which was suspended as a pendulum in vacuum. Optical techniques were designed to accurately measure the natural decay of angular position and subsequently, data processing algorithms resulted in excellent spatial and temporal resolutions. This method was repeated in a parametric study for various lengths, root tensions and vacuum levels. For all data sets, regression models for damping were applied, including: nonlinear viscous, frequency-independent hysteretic, coulomb and some combination of them. Our data analysis and dynamics models have shown that the intrinsic damping for the baseline boom is insufficient, thereby forcing project management to explore mitigation strategies.

Yew, Alvin G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tissue scale agent-based simulation of premalignant progressions in Barrett’s esophagus

Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is a benign condition of the distal esophagus that initiates a multistage pathway to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Short of frequent intrusive (and costly) surveillance, effective screening for neoplasia in BE populations is yet to be established since progressors are rare and virtually undetectable without routine biopsies, which often sample only a small portion of the BE tissue. As a result, reliable estimation of the true prevalence of dysplasia in a BE population and evidence-based optimization of screening for at-risk individuals is challenging. Data-driven microsimulations, i.e., model-generated instances of disease history in a predefined virtual population, have found utility in the EAC screening literature as low-overhead alternatives to real-world hypothesis testing of optimal interventions for dysplasia. Despite the successes, computational limitations, paucity of knowledge and data on Barrett’s dysplasia, and the complexities of disease progression as a multiscale multiphysics process have hindered the treatment of disease progression in BE as a spatial process. Agent-based modeling of nucleation and proliferation processes in dysplasia warrants exploration in this context as an approximation that operates at a trade-off between computational tractability and precise representation of the composition and physics of the substrate (tissue). In this study, we describe spatially resolved simulations of premalignant progression toward EAC in a coarse-grained model of Barrett’s tissue that resolves the metaplastic tissue at a length scale of 0.42 mm (~3300 crypts/mm 2 ). Finally, the model is calibrated to reproduce historical high-grade dysplasia prevalence when model-generated patients are screened using the Seattle protocol.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fractal Characterization of Multimodal, Multiscale Images of Shale Rock Fracture Networks

An array of multimodal and multiscale images of fractured shale rock samples and analogs was collected with the aim of improving the numerical representation of fracture networks. 2D and 3D reconstructions of fractures and matrices span from 10 –6 to 100 m. The origin of the fracture networks ranged from natural to thermal maturation to hydraulically induced maturation. Images were segmented to improve fracture identification. Then, the fractal dimension and length distribution of the fracture networks were calculated for each image dataset. The resulting network connectivity and scaling associations are discussed at length on the basis of scale, sample and order of magnitude. Fracture network origin plays an important role in the resulting fracture systems and their scaling. Rock analogs are also evaluated using these descriptive tools and are found to be faithful depictions of maturation-induced fracture networks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analyzing Tropical Waves Using the Parallel Ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition Method: Preliminary Results from Hurricane Sandy

In this study, we discuss the performance of the parallel ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in the analysis of tropical waves that are associated with tropical cyclone (TC) formation. To efficiently analyze high-resolution, global, multiple-dimensional data sets, we first implement multilevel parallelism into the ensemble EMD (EEMD) and obtain a parallel speedup of 720 using 200 eight-core processors. We then apply the parallel EEMD (PEEMD) to extract the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from preselected data sets that represent (1) idealized tropical waves and (2) large-scale environmental flows associated with Hurricane Sandy (2012). Results indicate that the PEEMD is efficient and effective in revealing the major wave characteristics of the data, such as wavelengths and periods, by sifting out the dominant (wave) components. This approach has a potential for hurricane climate study by examining the statistical relationship between tropical waves and TC formation.

PEEMD↗
DOE OSTI2024

United States Multi-Sector Dynamics land use and land cover base maps to support Human-Earth System Modeling

Datasets are land use and land cover (LULC) rasterized base maps at 30-m resolution for the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the years 2008, 2011, 2016, and 2019. Separate base maps are provided where LULC classifications are thematically congruent with Community Land Model (CLM), Land Use Harmonization (LUH2), and Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and a detailed decomposition of all combined land classes into a Multisector Dynamics (MSD) LULC product. Base maps were developed using empirically derived satellite (National Land Cover Dataset, MODIS) and combined observation datasets (Crop Data Layer, Protected Areas Database) and represent the most up-to-date accurate information on LULC in the CONUS. The four datasets encompass four different landcover classification systems: MSD Layers - The raw landcover classes obtained from reclassifying NLCD and USDA Crop data layers into a respective landcover class GCAM Layers - The MSD classes mosaiced, reclassified, and combined into the respective GCAM landcover classes CLM Layers - Similar process to GCAM layers, but mosaiced, reclassified, and combined MSD layers to their respective PFT classes LUH2 Layers - Similar process to both GCAM and CLM Layers, but mosaiced, reclassified and combined the MSD layers to align with the respective states

Food↗
DOE OSTI2024

Polysulfide-incompatible additive suppresses spatial reaction heterogeneity of Li-S batteries

Rational electrolyte engineering for practical pouch cells remains elusive because the correlation between the cathode/solid-electrolyte interphase layer and cell-level reaction behavior is poorly understood. Here, by combining multiscale characterization and computational modeling, we show that—counter to the conventional perception of polysulfide-incompatible additives—the spontaneous reaction of sparingly solvated polysulfides with Lewis acid additives (LAAs) can induce in situ formation of a homogeneous interphase on thick and tortuous S cathode. Multiscale synchrotron X-ray characterization consistently affirms that such interface design could effectively eliminate the notorious problems of polysulfide shuttle and lithium corrosion and, more importantly, provide an interconnected “ion transport highway” to alleviate the uneven ion transport within the tortuous S cathode. Hence, this design dramatically reduces the reaction heterogeneity of lithium-sulfur (Li-S) pouch cells under lean electrolyte conditions. Further, this work resolves controversy around the role of polysulfide-incompatible additives in high-energy Li-S pouch cells and highlights the importance of suppressing reaction heterogeneity for practical batteries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the dynamic evolution of atomically dispersed Cu catalyst for CO 2 electrochemical conversion using integrated XANES analysis and mechanistic studies

Direct electrochemical conversion of CO 2 to ethanol (CH 3 CH 2 OH) offers a promising strategy to lower CO 2 emission while storing energy from renewable electricity. Our recent study reported a carbon-supported atomically dispersed Cu catalyst that achieved the highest reported selectivity for CH 3 CH 2 OH formation (91%) at a relatively low potential (-0.6 V), however, the active site structure that is responsible for such high activity and selectivity has yet to be understood. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a computational investigation combining X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) simulations and a mechanistic study via density functional theory (DFT) to understand the catalyst structures of this Cu catalyst during electrocatalysis and the corresponding reaction mechanisms of the key products. An integrated computational and experimental XANES analysis depicted the dynamic evolution of the catalytic site during electrocatalysis. The as-prepared, atomically dispersed Cu catalyst aggregates and forms metallic clusters/nanoparticles under electrochemical condition, which then break down to smaller oxidized clusters after electrocatalysis. The formed Cu clusters/nanoparticles showed distinct catalytic activity and selectivity as a function of particle size based on the mechanistic investigation using DFT, which is consistent with experimental observations for catalyst samples with different Cu loadings. This comprehensive study which combines experimental and computational XANES investigation, mechanistic study via DFT calculations, and experimental performance of the catalysts, provides unprecedented dynamic and mechanistic insights into the supported atomically dispersed metal catalysts for CO 2 reduction. Such strategy and details gained can further guide discovery of novel catalyst materials for CO 2 electrochemical reduction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining the Crosslinking and Degradation Reaction Kinetics in Photovoltaic Encapsulants Using Accelerated Aging: Preprint

Degradation of photovoltaic (PV) module encapsulant mechanical characteristics that lead to embrittlement and delamination remains a cause of failure in solar installations. A multiscale reliability model based on detailed molecular degradation reaction kinetics was previously published, connecting the encapsulant mechanical properties (elastic modulus, yield strength, and adhesion energy) to the degraded molecular structure and interfacial bond density to adjacent solar cell and glass substrates. The model, developed primarily for poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA) encapsulants, remains to be experimentally validated. Determining the degradation and crosslinking kinetics of alternative encapsulants, such as polyolefin elastomer (POE) and EVA/POE/EVA composites (EPE), can further generalize the model. Importantly, the activation energy for crosslinking of fully cured PV encapsulant products from temperature or UV is presently unknown or unavailable. In this work, we subject EVA, POE, and EPE encapsulants to a set of accelerated aging conditions, varying the temperature, UV intensity, and relative humidity. We use DSC, FTIR, and Soxhlet extraction (gel content) to characterize the encapsulants' changing molecular structure. This allows for determination of the photochemical degradation and crosslinking kinetics of the encapsulants. Preliminary results show an increase in gel content (crosslinking) and a decrease in crystallinity of EVA, POE, and EPE encapsulants under hot-aerobic (90 deg C, 22% RH) and hot-anaerobic (90oC, sealed in N2 air) accelerated aging, even in the absence of UV and crosslinking initiating agents. For a least squares regression with an assumed first-order crosslinking kinetics, the crosslinking rate parameters were computed for the three encapsulants under hot-aerobic and hot-anaerobic aging conditions. FTIR analysis showed insignificant encapsulant degradation for hot-aerobic and hot-anaerobic aging, demonstrating the critical role of UV and moisture in accelerating degradation. Aging conditions with UV exposure and elevated humidity are presently in progress.

adhesion↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Furthermore, our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A multiscale model of the action of a capsid assembly modulator for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is strongly associated with increased risk of liver cancer and cirrhosis. While existing treatments effectively inhibit the HBV life cycle, viral rebound frequently occurs following treatment interruption. Consequently, functional cure rates of chronic HBV infection remain low and there is increased interest in a novel treatment modality, capsid assembly modulators (CAMs). Here, we develop a multiscale mathematical model of CAM treatment in chronic HBV infection. By fitting the model to participant data from a phase I trial of the first-generation CAM vebicorvir, we estimate the drug’s dose-dependent effectiveness and identify the physiological mechanisms that drive the observed biphasic decline in HBV DNA and RNA, and mechanistic differences between HBeAg-positive and negative infection. Finally, we demonstrate analytically and numerically that the relative change of HBV RNA more accurately reflects the antiviral effectiveness of a CAM than the relative change in HBV DNA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simulations of grain growth in tungsten armor materials under ARC plasma edge operation conditions using an integrated plasma-edge/materials model

An integrated model of grain growth deuterium-exposed tungsten polycrystals, consisting of a two-dimensional vertex dynamics model fitted to atomistic data, has been developed to assess the grain growth kinetics of deuterium-exposed polycrystalline tungsten (W). The model tracks the motion of grain boundaries under the effect of driving forces stemming from grain boundary curvature and differential deuterium concentration accumulation. Here, we apply the model to experimentally synthesized tungsten polycrystals under deuterium-saturated conditions relevant to the ARC concept design. The results indicate rapid grain growth kinetics in the near-surface region adjacent to the plasma, where the temperature reaches 1400 K, whereas the microstructure remains stable deeper in the material with the lower temperature of 1000 K. The combined modeling and analysis further reveal that monolithic tungsten produced via conventional fabrication routes is highly susceptible to grain coarsening at temperatures exceeding 1000 K, largely independent of the magnitude of the applied driving force. Moreover, the accumulation of deuterium near grain boundaries has a pronounced inhibitory effect on grain boundary migration. High-angle grain boundaries ( > 50°) contribute more significantly to the overall grain growth process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-autoregressive time-series methods for stable parametric reduced-order models

Advection-dominated dynamical systems, characterized by partial differential equations, are found in applications ranging from weather forecasting to engineering design where accuracy and robustness are crucial. There has been significant interest in the use of techniques borrowed from machine learning to reduce the computational expense and/or improve the accuracy of predictions for these systems. These rely on the identification of a basis that reduces the dimensionality of the problem and the subsequent use of time series and sequential learning methods to forecast the evolution of the reduced state. Often, however, machine-learned predictions after reduced-basis projection are plagued by issues of stability stemming from incomplete capture of multiscale processes as well as due to error growth for long forecast durations. To address these issues, we have developed a non-autoregressive time series approach for predicting linear reduced-basis time histories of forward models. In particular, we demonstrate that non-autoregressive counterparts of sequential learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) considerably improve the stability of machine-learned reduced-order models. Further, we evaluate our approach on the inviscid shallow water equations and show that a non-autoregressive variant of the standard LSTM approach that is bidirectional in the principal component directions obtains the best accuracy for recreating the nonlinear dynamics of partial observations. Moreover-and critical for many applications of these surrogates-inference times are reduced by three orders of magnitude using our approach, compared with both the equation-based Galerkin projection method and the standard LSTM approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗