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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing Production Rate and Carbon Utilization Trade-offs in CO 2 RR Electrolyzers

Carbon utilization is a crucially important performance characteristic of CO 2 electrolyzers; however, applications of simple and accurate descriptive models to experimental data on this topic are currently lacking. Here, we apply a simple analytical reactor model to parameterize single-pass conversion as a function of feed-gas flow rate and show that it captures a wide body of experimental data in the literature exceptionally well. In doing so, we demonstrate that this simple conceptual approach can characterize progress and capture recent innovations in reactor design. To validate the extracted parameters, we employ a well-established comprehensive model to confirm that the results agree with physical expectations. Lastly, we explore the implications of the descriptive model by examining the inherent trade-off between single-pass conversion efficiency and reactor productivity. Understanding such trade-offs is crucially important for advancing this electrolyzer technology toward commercial applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Storm-driven particulate organic matter flux connects a tidal tributary floodplain wetland, mainstem river, and estuary

The transport of terrestrial plant matter into coastal waters is important to regional and global biogeochemical cycles, and methods for assessing and predicting fluxes in such dynamic environments are needed. We investigated the hypothesis that upon reconnection of a floodplain wetland to its mainstem river, organic matter produced in the wetland would reach other parts of the ecosystem. If so, we can infer that the organic matter would ultimately become a source for the food web in the mainstem river and estuary. To accomplish this, we adapted numerical hydrodynamic and transport modeling methods to estimate the mass of particulate organic matter (POM) derived from the annually senescent aboveground parts of herbaceous marsh plants (H–POM). The Finite–Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), parameterized with flow, tide, and aboveground biomass data, simulated H–POM mobilization from fluid shear stress during tidal exchange, flooding, and variable river flow; entrainment into the water column; transport via channel and overland flow; and entrapment when wetted surfaces dry. We examined export from a recently reconnected, restoring tidal emergent marsh on the Grays River, a tributary to the Columbia River estuary. Modeling indicated that hydrologically reconnecting 65 ha at the site resulted in export of about 96 × 10 3 kg of H–POM, primarily during pulsed storm flooding events in autumn and early winter. This exported mass amounted to about 19% of the summer peak aboveground biomass measured at the site. Of that 19%, about 48% (47 × 10 3 kg) was deposited downstream in the Grays River and floodplain wetlands, and the remaining 52% (50 × 10 3 kg) passed the confluence of the Grays River and the mainstem estuary located about 7 km from the study site. The colonization of the restoring study site largely by nonnative Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) may have resulted in 18–28% lower H–POM mobilization than typical marsh plant communities on this floodplain, based on estimates from regional studies of marshes dominated by less recalcitrant species. Here, we concluded that restored floodplain wetlands can contribute significant amounts of organic matter to the estuarine ecosystem and thereby contribute to the restoration of historical trophic structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

A Membrane Model from Implicit Elasticity Theory. Application to Visceral Pleura

A Fungean solid is derived for membranous materials as a body defined by isotropic response functions whose mathematical structure is that of a Hookean solid where the elastic constants are replaced by functions of state derived from an implicit, thermodynamic, internal energy function. The theory utilizes Biot’s (Lond Edinb Dublin Philos Mag J Sci 27:468–489, 1939) definitions for stress and strain that, in one-dimension, are the stress/strain measures adopted by Fung (Am J Physiol 28:1532–1544, 1967) when he postulated what is now known as Fung’s law. Our Fungean membrane model is parameterized against a biaxial data set acquired from a porcine pleural membrane subjected to three, sequential, proportional, planar extensions. These data support an isotropic/deviatoric split in the stress and strain-rate hypothesized by our theory. These data also demonstrate that the material response is highly nonlinear but, otherwise, mechanically isotropic. These data are described reasonably well by our otherwise simple, four-parameter, material model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effect of stress on the migration of He gas bubbles under a thermal gradient in Fe by phase-field modeling

Here a phase-field model is parameterized to study the effect of elastic stresses on the migration of He gas bubbles in Fe under a temperature gradient. Stresses caused by the gas bubble pressure and residual stress in the Fe matrix are considered. The dependence of He bubble migration velocity on the magnitude of the residual stress, average temperature, temperature gradient, and bubble size is measured. In agreement with a theoretical model based on surface diffusion, simulation results demonstrate that He bubbles move towards the high temperature region with velocities in Fe that are orders of magnitude faster than previously reported in UO 2 . It is found that local stresses in the matrix caused by the He bubble have negligible effect on the bubble migration process; however, residual stresses in the Fe matrix, potentially caused by processing or irradiation, can modestly modify bubble kinetics through pressure dependence of the He diffusion coefficients. Compressive residual stress decreases diffusion coefficients for bulk and surface diffusion mechanisms, thus reducing the migration velocity of the gas bubble. In contrast, tensile residual stress increases the diffusion coefficients, resulting in an increase in the gas bubble migration velocity. This pressure dependence is also consistent with a theoretical model. This phase field model lays the foundation for analysis of bubble coalescence-induced fracture in He bubble-containing steels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quasar UV Luminosity Function at 3.5 < z < 5.0 from SDSS Deep Imaging Data

We present a well-designed sample of more than 1000 type 1 quasars at 3.5 < z < 5 and derive UV quasar luminosity functions (QLFs) in this redshift range. These quasars were selected using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) imaging data in the Stripe 82 and overlap regions with repeat imaging observations that are about 1 mag fainter than the SDSS single-epoch data. The follow-up spectroscopic observations were conducted by the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) as one of the BOSS ancillary programs. Reaching i ~ 21.5 mag, our sample bridges previous samples from brighter and deeper surveys. We use a 1/V a method to derive binned QLFs at 3.6 < z < 4.0, 4.0 < z < 4.5, and 4.5 < z < 4.9 and then use a double power-law model to parameterize the QLFs. We also combine our data with literature QLFs to better constrain the QLFs across a much wider luminosity baseline. The faint- and bright-end slopes of the QLFs in this redshift range are around –1.7 and –3.7, respectively, with uncertainties from 0.2 to 0.3 to >0.5. The evolution of the QLFs from z ~ 5 to 3.5 can be described by a pure density evolution model (∝10 kz ) with a parameter k similar to that at 5 < z < 7, suggesting a nearly uniform evolution of the quasar density at z = 3.5–7.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to align dosimetry of the isobutyl metabolic series in rats and humans

Here, we developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model in rats and humans for the isobutyl metabolic series including isobutyl acetate, isobutanol, isobutyraldehyde, and isobutyric acid. Chemical manufactures routinely use these compounds as solvents, for chemical synthesis, as potential biofuels, de-icing fluids, and additives for food and/or fragrance in consumer products. Human exposure to isobutyl compounds can occur through inhalation or oral routes. We previously developed a PBPK model for the propyl metabolic series and utilized it as a framework to create the isobutyl PBPK model due to the chemical similarities between the two series. To support model development, we measured in vitro metabolism of isobutyl acetate in rat and human blood and liver S9 fractions. Compared to rats, humans demonstrated faster isobutyl acetate hydrolysis in liver S9 fractions, while the hydrolysis rates in blood were similar between the two species. We used concentrations of isobutyl compounds measured in air and blood from rats exposed to isobutyl acetate and isobutanol as well as other published data to further parameterize the model. Following exposure to either isobutyl acetate or isobutanol, we observed isobutanol concentrations highest among the isobutyl compounds in the blood of rats. Overall, the model accurately predicts measured time course concentrations of isobutyl acetate, isobutanol, and isobutyric acid in available data in rats and humans. Sensitivity analyses identified alveolar ventilation rates, isobutyl metabolism rates, and cardiac output as the most sensitive parameters affecting concentrations of isobutyl compounds in blood. The isobutyl PBPK model enables comparisons of internal dose metrics across various isobutyl compound exposures and species and allows for calculation of equivalent external exposures that result in the same dose metric. Regulators can employ this PBPK model to predict and align internal dose metrics of isobutyl compounds for risk assessment purposes.

2-methyl-1-propanol↗
DOE OSTI2019

Joint Optimization Scheme for the Planning and Operations of Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicle Fleets Serving Mobility on Demand

As the transportation sector undergoes three major transformations—electrification, shared/on-demand mobility, and automation—there are new challenges to analyzing the impacts of these trends on both the transportation system and the power sector. Most models that analyze the requirements of fleets of shared autonomous electric vehicles (SAEVs) operate at the scale of an urban region, or smaller. A quadratically constrained, quadratic programming problem is formulated, designed to model the requirements of SAEVs at a national scale. The size of the SAEV fleet, the necessary charging infrastructure, the fleet charging schedule, and the dispatch required to serve demand for trips in a region are treated as decision variables. By minimizing both the amortized cost of the fleet and chargers as well as the operational costs of charging, it is possible to explore the coupled interactions between system design and operation. To apply the model at a national scale, key complications about fleet operations are simplified; but a detailed agent-based regional simulation model to parameterize those simplifications is leveraged. Preliminary results are presented, finding that all mobility in the United States (U.S.) currently served by 276 million personally owned vehicles could be served by 12.5 million SAEVs at a cost of $\$ 0.27$/vehicle-mile or $ 0.18/passenger-mile. In conclusion, the energy requirements for this fleet would be 1142 GWh/day (8.5% of 2017 U.S. electricity demand) and the peak charging load 76.7 GW (11% of U.S. power peak). Several model sensitivities are explored, and it is found that sharing is a key factor in the analysis.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Model Evaluation

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to facilitate the use of long-term, high-frequency measurements from the ARM Facility in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model data sets are also included in the package to enable model intercomparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2017). The mean of the CMIP model can serve as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as aerosol and microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on individual cloud- and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. The version 1.0 package is designed based on data collected at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Research Facility, with the plan to extend to other ARM sites. The metrics and diagnostics package is currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (such as CDMS and CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first present the input data, which constitutes the core content of the metrics and diagnostics package in section 2, and a user's guide documenting the workflow/structure of the version 1.0 codes, and including step-by-step instruction for running the package in section 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Using field observations to inform thermal hydrology models of permafrost dynamics with ATS (v0.83)

Climate change is profoundly transforming the carbon-rich Arctic tundra landscape, potentially moving it from a carbon sink to a carbon source by increasing the thickness of soil that thaws on a seasonal basis. Thus, the modeling capability and precise parameterizations of the physical characteristics needed to estimate projected active layer thickness (ALT) are limited in Earth system models (ESMs). In particular, discrepancies in spatial scale between field measurements and Earth system models challenge validation and parameterization of hydrothermal models. A recently developed surface–subsurface model for permafrost thermal hydrology, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), is used in combination with field measurements to achieve the goals of constructing a process-rich model based on plausible parameters and to identify fine-scale controls of ALT in ice-wedge polygon tundra in Barrow, Alaska. An iterative model refinement procedure that cycles between borehole temperature and snow cover measurements and simulations functions to evaluate and parameterize different model processes necessary to simulate freeze–thaw processes and ALT formation. After model refinement and calibration, reasonable matches between simulated and measured soil temperatures are obtained, with the largest errors occurring during early summer above ice wedges (e.g., troughs). The results suggest that properly constructed and calibrated one-dimensional thermal hydrology models have the potential to provide reasonable representation of the subsurface thermal response and can be used to infer model input parameters and process representations. The models for soil thermal conductivity and snow distribution were found to be the most sensitive process representations. However, information on lateral flow and snowpack evolution might be needed to constrain model representations of surface hydrology and snow depth.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Using field observations to inform thermal hydrology models of permafrost dynamics with ATS (v0.83)

Climate change is profoundly transforming the carbon-rich Arctic tundra landscape, potentially moving it from a carbon sink to a carbon source by increasing the thickness of soil that thaws on a seasonal basis. However, the modeling capability and precise parameterizations of the physical characteristics needed to estimate projected active layer thickness (ALT) are limited in Earth System Models (ESMs). In particular, discrepancies in spatial scale between field measurements and Earth System Models challenge validation and parameterization of hydrothermal models. A recently developed surface/subsurface model for permafrost thermal hydrology, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), is used in combination with field measurements to calibrate and identify fine scale controls of ALT in ice wedge polygon tundra in Barrow, Alaska. An iterative model refinement procedure that cycles between borehole temperature and snow cover measurements and simulations functions to evaluate and parameterize different model processes necessary to simulate freeze/thaw processes and ALT formation. After model refinement and calibration, reasonable matches between simulated and measured soil temperatures are obtained, with the largest errors occurring during early summer above ice wedges (e.g. troughs). The results suggest that properly constructed and calibrated one-dimensional thermal hydrology models have the potential to provide reasonable representation of the subsurface thermal response and can be used to infer model input parameters and process representations. The models for soil thermal conductivity and snow distribution were found to be the most sensitive process representations. However, information on lateral flow and snowpack evolution might be needed to constrain model representations of surface hydrology and snow depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Relative Importance of Assumed Infrasound Source Terms and Effects of Atmospheric Models on the Linear Inversion of Infrasound Time Series at the Source Physics Experiment

We invert far-field infrasound data for the equivalent seismoacoustic time-domain moment tensor to assess the effects of variable atmospheric models and source phenomena. The infrasound data were produced by a series of underground chemical explosions that were conducted during the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), which was originally designed to study seismoacoustic signal phenomena. The first goal is to investigate the sensitivity of the inversion to the variability of the estimated atmospheric model. The second goal is to determine the relative contribution of two presumed source mechanisms to the observed infrasonic wavefield. Rather than using actual atmospheric observations to estimate the necessary atmospheric Green’s functions, we build a series of atmospheric models that rely on publicly available, regional-scale atmospheric observations. The atmospheric observations are summarized and interpolated onto a 3D grid to produce a model of sound speed at the time of the experiment. For each of four SPE acoustic datasets that we invert, we produced a suite of three atmospheric models for each chemical explosion event, based on 10 yrs of meteorological data: an average model, which averages the atmospheric conditions for 10 yrs prior to each SPE event, as well as two extrema models. To parameterize the inversion, we assume that the source of infrasonic energy results from the linear combination of explosion-induced surface spall and linear seismic-to-elastic mode conversion at the Earth’s free surface. We find that the inversion yields relatively repeatable results for the estimated spall source. Conversely, the estimated isotropic explosion source is highly variable. This suggests that 1) the majority of the observed acoustic energy is produced by the spall and/or 2) our modeling of the elastic energy, and the subsequent conversion to acoustic energy, is too simplistic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Extending Supernova Spectral Templates for Next-generation Space Telescope Observations

Empirical models of supernova (SN) spectral energy distributions (SEDs) are widely used for SN survey simulations and photometric classifications. The existing library of SED models has excellent optical templates, but limited, poorly constrained coverage of ultraviolet (UV) and infrared (IR) wavelengths. However, both regimes are critical for the design and operation of future SN surveys, particularly at IR wavelengths that will be accessible with the James Webb Space Telescope and the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope. We create a public repository of improved empirical SED templates using a sampling of Type Ia and core-collapse (CC) photometric light curves to extend the Type Ia parameterized SALT2 model and a set of SN Ib, SN Ic, and SN II SED templates into the UV and near-IR. We apply this new repository of extrapolated SN SED models to examine how future surveys can discriminate between CC and Type Ia SNe at UV and IR wavelengths, and present an open-source software package written in Python, SNSEDextend, that enables users to generate their own extrapolated SEDs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Horizontal Resolution, Domain Size, Boundary Conditions, and Surface Heterogeneity on Coarse LES of a Convective Boundary Layer

Atmospheric properties in a convective boundary layer vary over a wide range of spatial scales and are commonly studied using large-eddy simulations (LES) in various configurations. We examine how the boundary layer depth and distribution of variability across scales are affected by LES grid spacing, domain size, inhomogeneity of surface properties, and external forcing. Two different setups of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are analyzed. A semi-idealized configuration uses a periodic domain, flat surface, prescribed homogeneous surface heat fluxes, and horizontally uniform profiles of large-scale advective tendencies. A nested LES setup employs a larger domain and realistic initial and boundary conditions, including an interactive land surface model with representative topography and vegetation and soil types. Subdomains of identical size are analyzed for all simulations. Characteristic structure sizes are quantified using the variability scales L 50 and L 95 , defined such that features smaller than that contain 50% and 95% of the total variance, respectively. Progressive increase in L 50 from vertical velocity to temperature and moisture structures is systematically reproduced in all simulation configurations. This dependence of L 50 on the considered variable complicates the development of scale-aware parameterizations for models with grid spacing in the “terra incognita”. In simulations using a larger domain with heterogeneous surface properties, the development of internal mesoscale patterns significantly affects variance distributions inside analyzed subdomains. Sizes of boundary layer structures also strongly depend on the LES grid spacing and, in case of heterogeneous surface and topography, on location of the subdomain inside a larger computational domain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interconnection of Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions and Cloud Feedback Through Warm Rain Process

Recent research has revealed a correlation within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations: models exhibiting more pronounced warming due to positive cloud feedback simultaneously show enhanced cooling from aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI). However, the interplay between ACI and cloud feedback is not well understood in these models. Our study addresses this gap by modifying the autoconversion rate in two Earth system models (ESMs), elucidating how ACI could connect with cloud feedback through the warm rain process. We find that higher autoconversion rates, which are associated with stronger ACI, suppress the increase in cloud liquid water path (LWP) and cloud optical depth with warming by enhancing the precipitation efficiency over the extratropical regions, leading to a larger positive cloud feedback. This study offers new insights into the compensatory mechanism between ACI and cloud feedback through the warm rain process and highlights the importance of constraining the autoconversion parameterization in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Frozen Hydrometeor Terminal Fall Velocity Dependence on Particle Habit and Riming as Observed by Vertically Pointing Radars

Vertically pointing Ka-band radar measurements are used to derive fall velocity–reflectivity factor ($V$ t = $aZ$$^{b}_{e}$) relations for frozen hydrometeor populations of different habits during snowfall events observed at Oliktok Point, Alaska, and at the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC). Case study events range from snowfall with highly rimed particles observed during periods with large amounts of supercooled liquid water path (LWP > 320 g m –2 ) to unrimed snowflakes including instances when pristine planar crystals were the dominant frozen hydrometeor habit. The prefactor a and the exponent b in the observed $V$ t –$Z$ e relations scaled to the sea level vary in the approximate ranges 0.5–1.4 and 0.03–0.13, respectively (reflectivities are in mm 6 m –3 and velocities are in m s –1 ). The coefficient a values are the smallest for planar crystals (a ~ 0.5) and the largest (a > 1.2) for particles under severe riming conditions with high LWP. There is no clear distinction between b values for high and low LWP conditions. The range of the observed $V$ t –$Z$ e relation coefficients is in general agreement with results of modeling using fall velocity–size (υ t = αD β ) relations for individual particles found in literature for hydrometeors of different habits, though there is significant variability in α and β coefficients from different studies even for a same particle habit. Correspondences among coefficients in the $V$ t –$Z$ e relations for particle populations and in the individual particle υ t –$D$ relations are analyzed. Furthermore, these correspondences and the observed $V$ t –$Z$ e relations can be used for evaluating different frozen hydrometeor fall velocity parameterizations in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MULTI-LEADER: MULTI-source LEarning-Accelerated Design of high-Efficiency multi-stage compRessor (Final Technical Report)

The objective of MULTI-LEADER is to cut design costs by 80% while generating more energy-efficient designs of multi-stage compressors by developing and implementing novel machine learning (ML) techniques, which enable faster and fewer design iterations, improved solver performance, and concurrent multi-disciplinary design. Current industrial practices for the design of multi-stage compressors involve simulation-based design optimization with successive levels of model fidelity, iteratively evaluated between distinct disciplines, one stage at a time to tackle the high dimensional design variations. This project addresses these key design challenges: (1) concurrent optimization of multiple stages under many non-linear constraints; (2) multitude of evaluation of high-fidelity and expensive solvers and their gradients during optimization convergence in high-dimensional design; (3) multi-disciplinary design to maximize aerodynamic performance while guaranteeing structural integrity and additive manufacturability; (4) utilization of multiple fidelity of solvers with disparate parameterization and modeling assumptions. MULTI-LEADER achieved more than 5x speed up in detailed design of more energy-efficient compressors via these machine learning (ML) innovations: (i) rapid design surrogates by multi-source learning from diverse fidelities across multiple disciplines, (ii) physics-constrained data-augmented modeling for improved empiricism, (iii) generative manifold embedding for high dimensional concurrent design without gradient information; (iv) budget-constrained fidelity-adaptive sampling towards fewer design iterations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupling Remote Sensing With a Process Model for the Simulation of Rangeland Carbon Dynamics

Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics as well as limited data availability. We developed the Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long-term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable data sets with algorithms representing terrestrial C-cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality-controlled C flux data sets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern US rangelands to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass-shrub mixture, and grass-tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher model accuracy for estimating annual cumulative gross primary productivity (GPP) (R 2 > 0.6, RMSE <390 g C m -2 ) relative to net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) (R 2 > 0.4, RMSE <180 g C m -2 ). Model performance in estimating rangeland C fluxes varied by season and vegetation type. The RCTM captured the spatial variability of SOC stocks with R 2 = 0.6 when validated against SOC measurements across 13 NEON sites. Model simulations indicated slightly enhanced SOC stocks for the flux tower sites during the past decade, which is mainly driven by an increase in precipitation. Future efforts to refine the RCTM system will benefit from long-term network-based monitoring of vegetation biomass, C fluxes, and SOC stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗