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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal delay of Sahelian rainfall driven by an east–west contrast in radiative forcing in idealized CESM experiments

Recent studies suggest the observed seasonal delay of rainfall over the Sahel is mainly driven by anthropogenic aerosol forcing, which features a robust east–west contrasting changes in recent decades, with negative and positive top-of-the-atmosphere shortwave radiative forcing in South and East Asia (SA&EA) and in North America and Europe (NA&EU), respectively. Their individual effects on the Sahel rainfall annual cycle remain unclear. Here, by designing idealized sensitivity experiments based on Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2), we show that both negative radiative forcing over SA&EA and positive radiative forcing over NA&EU contribute to the delayed phase and enhanced amplitude of Sahel rainfall annual cycle. To understand the underlying physical processes, both the convective quasi-equilibrium (CQE) and atmospheric energetic frameworks are utilized. Both frameworks can well explain the seasonal delay in the rainfall annual cycle over the Sahel under the regional radiative forcings, with the CQE framework showing stronger explanatory power. Based on the insights from both frameworks, we conducted a moisture budget analysis and found that the negative radiative forcing over SA&EA causes an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation, which transports more moisture to the Sahel. As the anomalous anticyclone is stronger in summer and fall compared to spring, rainfall is delayed in the Sahel. Further, under the influence of the positive radiative forcing over NA&EU, more warming in the northern hemisphere causes northward transport of moisture to the northern tropics associated with the cross-equatorial transport of energy. The moisture transport increases relativehumidity over the Sahel and enhances the effective atmospheric heat capacity that delays the seasonal rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Butterfly valve performance factors using the multiphysics object oriented simulation environment

Butterfly valves are typically used in nuclear reactors to control incompressible fluid flow with high inlet velocities. Performance factors for butterfly valves include the pressure drop across the valve and the loss coefficient from which hydrodynamic torque and flow coefficients can be computed. This work explores a computational fluid dynamics approach for butterfly valve performance factors using the open-source Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework. While MOOSE is often used in the nuclear energy modeling and simulation community for simulations ranging from fuel characterization to heat pipe simulation, this work employs the MOOSE open-source Navier–Stokes solver capability for simulating butterfly valve performance factors and compares those to experimentally measured results from the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory at Reynolds numbers in the order of 10 6 for the partially opened configuration. The MOOSE framework results are compared against experimentally measured butterfly valve performance factors across five valve opening angles using meshes with order 10 4 – 10 5 elements. This validation serves to enable MOOSE-based multiphysics simulations incorporating the open-source Navier–Stokes module.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The short-term comprehensive impact of the phase-out of global coal combustion on air pollution and climate change

With the continuous intensification of global warming, the reduction and ultimate phase-out of coal combustion is an inevitable trend in the future global energy transformation. This study comprehensively analyzed the impact of phasing out coal combustion on global emissions and concentrations of air pollutants, radiative fluxes, meteorology and climate using Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). The results indicate that after the global phase-out of coal combustion, there is a marked decrease in the concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), with some regions experiencing a reduction of exceeding 50%. There is no significant change in global ozone (O 3 ) concentration. There are decreasing AOD and positive radiative fluxes globally in the short term, though the cloud contributes minor negative radiative fluxes. The global air temperature may increase by approximately (0.02 ± 0.15) °C on average with regional and seasonal variations, and the precipitation may potentially increase by approximately (2.7 ± 40.6) mm yr −1 globally and over 20% in equatorial regions in the short term. But combined with the decreasing trend of cloud water content in the Northern Hemisphere, it indicates a potential increase in the extremity of precipitation events. In conclusion, this study provides references for global control of air pollution, mitigation strategies of climate change, and transformation of energy structures under the objective of “carbon neutrality”, such as focusing on the negative climate impacts of exacerbating regional warming and increasing extreme precipitation resulting from the rapid reduction of aerosols in the short term.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate effects of future aerosol reductions for achieving carbon neutrality in China

To limit the global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, beyond which the most dangerous impacts of climate change will occur, achieving carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century is essential. As the largest developing country and a significant contributor to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, China has announced its ambitious climate commitment to pass carbon peak before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Both climate policies and regional clean air actions have been implemented for reductions in fossil fuel emissions, including the emissions of short-lived aerosols and precursors. Furthermore, in the context of pursuing carbon neutrality in China, aerosol reductions due to clean air actions and pollution control policies are very likely to have a great impact on climate. In this study, climate effects of aerosol reductions due to China's clean air actions under localized future emission scenarios are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Fully coupled and atmosphere-only experiments in years of carbon peak (2030) and carbon neutrality (2060) are performed with anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors under “Current-goals” (Current) and “Carbon-Neutral” (Neutral) scenarios from the Dynamic Projection for Emissions in China (DPEC) model that consider socioeconomic development, climate policy, and pollution control actions (Figs. S1–S4 online). In addition, a present-day emissions simulation (PD) is conducted as the reference case (Supplementary materials online). Another sensitivity simulation is also conducted, with black carbon (BC) emissions set to follow the Neutral experiment but other emissions kept at the present-day levels (Neutral_BC), to quantify the relative roles of reducing strongly absorbing BC and other aerosols on future climate towards carbon neutrality. Greenhouse gases concentrations are kept at the 2015 levels in all simulations (Text S1 online).

Yang, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of projected changes in sea surface temperature on ozone pollution in China toward carbon neutrality

The global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected to change diversely in the future under different climate scenarios, which will affect the near-surface ozone (O 3 ) distribution and concentration by influencing meteorological states and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Many countries have planned to reach carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century. Here in this study, the impacts of global and regional SST changes on near-surface O 3 concentrations in China in the middle of the 21st century under the carbon-neutral scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9), compared with the high-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5), and possible physical and chemical mechanisms are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Under future climate change, the changes in SSTs in the carbon-neutral scenario relative to the high-emission scenario lead to a dipole change in near-surface O 3 concentrations in eastern and western China, with a significant decrease of 0.79 ppbv in the eastern China and a significant increase of 1.05 ppbv in the western China. The cooling of North Pacific Ocean under the carbon-neutral scenario causes a decrease in near-surface O 3 concentrations by 0.48 ppbv in eastern China due to the weakened chemical production and an increase by 0.74 ppbv in western China attributed to the enhanced O 3 transport from Eurasia. Cooling of Southern Hemisphere oceans leads to anomalous upward air motions over eastern China, which weaken the vertical transport of high-altitude O 3 to the surface. Our results suggest that future changes in SSTs in the carbon-neutral scenario will positively benefit O 3 air quality improvement in the polluted eastern China, with the North Pacific and Southern Hemisphere oceans playing important roles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Projected Changes to Extreme Precipitation Along North American West Coast From the CESM Large Ensemble

Precipitation events along the North American (NA) west coast are strongly modulated by atmospheric rivers, yet the mechanisms of their influences on the probability distributions of precipitation events are not well studied. Simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble under global warming are investigated using a moisture budget conditioned onto precipitation events for the recurrence intervals ranging from 0.1 to 50 years. In the midlatitudes, the increases in precipitation intensity and accumulation for all events over the NA west coast are predominantly controlled by moisture increases. In contrast, changes in the subtropical precipitation distributions in southwestern NA are associated with moisture increases and duration decreases for all events, with additional dynamical amplification for the heaviest precipitation events. These interpretations from the conditional moisture budget are more consistent with future projection of atmospheric rivers than the conventional mean and transient decomposition of the moisture budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate

Abstract The impacts of heat waves in a warming climate depend not only on changing temperatures but also on changing humidity. Using 35 simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS), we investigate the long‐term evolution of the joint distribution of summer relative humidity (RH) and daily maximum temperature ( Tmax ) near four U.S. cities (New York City, Chicago, Phoenix, and New Orleans) under the high‐emissions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We estimate the conditional quantiles of RH given Tmax with quantile regression models, using functions of temperature for each city in July for three time periods (1990–2005, 2026–2035, and 2071–2080). Quality‐of‐fit diagnostics indicate that these models accurately estimate conditional quantiles for each city. As expected, each quantile of Tmax increases from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080, while mean RH decreases modestly. Conditional upon a fixed quantile of Tmax , the median and high quantiles of RH decrease, while those of the Heat Index (HI) and dew point both increase. This result suggests that, despite a modest decrease in median relative humidity, heat stress measured by metrics considering both humidity and temperature in a warming climate will increase faster than that measured by temperatures alone would indicate. For a fixed Tmax , the high quantiles of RH (and thus of HI and dew point) increase from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080 in all four cities. This result suggests that the heat stress of a day at a given Tmax will increase in a warming climate due to the increase of RH.

Yuan, Jiacan↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Shifting Scales of Western U.S. Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Under Climate Change

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can be a boon and bane to water resource managers as they have the ability to replenish water reserves, but they can also generate million-to-billion-dollar flood damages. To investigate how anthropogenic climate change may influence AR characteristics in the coastal western United States by end century, we employ a suite of novel tools such as variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM), the TempestExtremes AR detection algorithm, and the Ralph, Rutz, et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0023.1) AR category scale.We show that end-century ARs primarily shift from being “mostly or primarily beneficial” to “mostly or primarily hazardous” with a concomitant sharpening and intensification of winter season precipitation totals. Changes in precipitation totals are due to a significant increase in AR (+260%) rather than non-AR (+7%) precipitation, largely through increases in the most intense category of AR events and a decrease in the interval between landfalling ARs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of a New Sea Ice Thermodynamic Formulation in the CESM2 Sea Ice Component

Abstract The sea ice component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) contains new “mushy‐layer” physics that simulates prognostic salinity in the sea ice, with consequent modifications to sea ice thermodynamics and the treatment of melt ponds. The changes to the sea ice model and their influence on coupled model simulations are described here. Two simulations were performed to assess the changes in the vertical thermodynamics formulation with prognostic salinity compared to a constant salinity profile. Inclusion of the mushy layer thermodynamics of Turner et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20171 ) in a fully coupled Earth system model produces thicker and more extensive sea ice in the Arctic, with relatively unchanged sea ice in the Antarctic compared to simulations using a constant salinity profile. While this is consistent with the findings of uncoupled ice‐ocean model studies, the role of the frazil and congelation growth is more important in fully coupled simulations. Melt pond drainage is also an important contribution to simulated ice thickness differences as also found in the uncoupled simulations of Turner and Hunke (2015; https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010358 ). However, it is an interaction of the ponds and the snow fraction that impacts the surface albedo and hence the top melt. The changes in the thermodynamics and resulting ice state modify the ice‐ocean‐atmosphere fluxes with impacts on the atmosphere and ocean states, particularly temperature.

Bailey, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Response of Precipitation Extremes to the Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Global Temperature Change in a Comprehensive Suite of CESM1 Large Ensemble Simulation: Revisiting the Role of Forcing Agents Vs. the Role of Forcing Magnitudes

The response of precipitation extremes (PEs) to global warming is found to be nonlinear in Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and other global climate models (Pendergrass et al., 2019), which led to the concern that it is not accurate to approximate the response of PE to a single forcing as the difference between simulations with all forcing agents and those that exclude one specific forcing. This calls into question previous model-based results that the sensitivity of PE with warming due to aerosol forcing is significantly larger than that due to greenhouse gases (GHGs). We reevaluate the PE sensitivity to GHGs and aerosols using available CESM1 ensemble simulations. We show that although the PE response to warming is nonlinear in CESM1, especially for the high warming projected in the twenty-first-century, PE sensitivity to aerosols is still significantly stronger than that due to GHGs when the comparison is made within similar warming regimes to avoid the bias induced by the nonlinear behavior. But the difference is smaller than previously estimated. We also conclude that the additivity assumption is largely valid to isolate the PE response due to aerosol forcing from the paired simulations including the “all forcing” experiment when the warming regime is small (e.g., 1°C–2°C in the next few decades when aerosol forcing is projected to decline and becomes a major source of uncertainty for model projection).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contribution of the Two Types of Ekman Pumping Induced Eddy Heat Flux to the Total Vertical Eddy Heat Flux

Based on eddy-rich (0.1° horizontal resolution for ocean) Community Earth System Model simulations, we compute the Ekman pumping induced vertical eddy heat flux using two formulations: the classical and the Stern-Ekman pumping. The two mechanisms yield similar patterns in the eddy-induced vertical heat flux, showing strong upward heat flux in ocean frontal regions such as the western boundary current regions. Using the Gulf Stream Extension region as an example, we estimate (1) the Stern-Ekman pumping induced eddy heat flux is 23% and 12% of the total vertical eddy heat flux at 50 m depth during summer and winter, respectively; (2) the classical Ekman pumping accounts for 82% and 88% of the Stern-Ekman pumping induced eddy heat flux at 50 m during summer and winter, respectively. The second finding indicates eddy current feedback on wind stress is the primary cause for the upward eddy heat flux generated by Ekman pumping.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupled Climate Responses to Recent Australian Wildfire and COVID-19 Emissions Anomalies Estimated in CESM2

In this work, multiple 50-member ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model version 2 are performed to estimate the coupled climate responses to the 2019–2020 Australian wildfires and COVID-19 pandemic policies. The climate response to the pandemic is found to be weak generally, with global-mean net top-of-atmosphere radiative anomalies of +0.23 ± 0.14 W m –2 driving a gradual global warming of 0.05 ± 0.04 K by the end of 2022. While regional anomalies are detectable in aerosol burdens and clear-sky radiation, few significant anomalies exist in other fields due to internal variability. In contrast, the simulated response to Australian wildfires is a strong and rapid cooling, peaking globally at –0.95 ± 0.15 W m –2 in late 2019 with a global cooling of 0.06 ± 0.04 K by mid-2020. Transport of fire aerosols throughout the Southern Hemisphere increases albedo and drives a strong interhemispheric radiative contrast, with simulated responses that are consistent generally with those to a Southern Hemisphere volcanic eruption.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Linear Response Function Reveals the Most Effective Remote Forcing in Causing September Arctic Sea Ice Melting in CESM

We apply the linear response function method to investigate the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice and its corresponding remote oceanic forcing in climate models. The method is useful in identifying the fundamental, dynamical and causal relationship between the remote forcing and sea ice response. We find that the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice preferentially takes place over the Pacic side of the Arctic and its remote forcing corresponds to a dipole pattern of precipitation anomaly in the tropics with an increase of precipitation over the western and central tropical and subtropical Pacic ocean while a decrease over the Maritime Continent. The tropical precipitation anomaly likely drives a Rossby wave train propagating toward higher latitudes and leads to a ridge anomaly over the Pacic side of the Arctic, resulting in poleward atmospheric heat transport, enhanced downward longwave radiation and thus melting of the sea ice. In addition, a good agreement is found with the leading tropical Arctic teleconnection mode detected in a pre-industrial control simulation, which supports the usefulness and robustness of the linear response function method and the importance of tropical forcing in shaping the sea ice variability.

Wu, Yutian↗
DOE OSTI2021

Does Regional Hydroclimate Change Scale Linearly With Global Warming?

Many aspects of climate change scale linearly with global warming. However, nonlinear changes are possible, especially in the context of hydroclimate, and under emissions scenarios with stabilized global temperature, as aspired to by current climate targets. In CMIP5 and 6, a progressively larger land area shows nonlinear changes as a function of global warming when considering precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture, with the latter showing nonlinearity over ~50% of global land. Here, using ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model 1, in which individual forcing factors are held constant, we illustrate how nonadditive responses to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and industrial and fire-related aerosols can yield complex soil moisture changes in certain regions. This complexity contributes to uncertainty in regional soil moisture projections and suggests that the timing of, as well as model response uncertainty to, future aerosol reductions will have significant impacts on regional hydroclimate change as global temperatures stabilize.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Coupled Feedbacks in the Decadal Variability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Additionally, Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Maximum Supersaturation in the Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Over the North Atlantic

Abstract The maximum supersaturation ( S x ) in clouds is a key parameter affecting the cloud's microphysical and radiative properties. We investigate the S x of the marine boundary layer clouds by combining airborne and surface observations in the Eastern North Atlantic. The cloud droplet number concentration ( N c ) in the least diluted cloud cores agrees well with the number concentration of particles larger than the Hoppel Minimum (HM) ( N >HM ) below clouds, indicating that the HM represents the average size threshold above which particles are activated to form cloud droplets. The S x values derived from surface observations vary from 0.10% to 0.50% from June 2017 to June 2018, with a clear seasonal variation exhibiting higher values during winter. Most of the S x variance (∼60%) can be explained by the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration and updraft velocity ( w ), with the CCN concentration playing a more important role than w in explaining the variation of S x . The influence of CCN concentration on S x leads to a buffered response of N c to aerosol perturbations. The response of N c to low aerosol concentration during winter is further buffered by the high w . The global Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulated S x values in the Azores have a positive bias compared to measured S x , likely due to overestimated w and underestimated CCN concentration. The CESM simulated S x exhibits higher values further north over the North Atlantic Ocean, which is attributed to stronger w . The suppression of S x by aerosol is also evident in regions with high CCN concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗