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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Reassessing the Climate Change Narrative

Abstract We note that the atmosphere has distinct tropical and extratropical regimes. The tropical regime is significantly dependent on the greenhouse effect and is characterized by temperatures that are largely horizontally homogenized. The extratropical regime is dominated by large scale unstable convective eddies that transport heat between the tropics and the poles (leaving the poles warmer than they otherwise would be) and serve to determine the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles. Changes in tropical temperature and in the tropics-to-pole temperature difference both contribute to changes in global mean temperature. It turns out that changes in global mean temperature associated with major climate change (i.e., the last glacial maximum and the warm period of the Eocene about 50 million years ago) were associated primarily with changes in the tropics-to-pole temperature differences. By contrast, changes in global mean temperature over the past 150 years or so are almost entirely associated with changes in tropical temperature. Thus, there is no intrinsic amplification associated with a change in the tropics-to-pole temperature difference. However, model simulations of climate behave differently from both observations and from each other. In particular, they all show more significant contributions for the tropics-to-pole temperature difference – sometimes much more significant. They also show excessive tropical warming.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Linguistic variation in functional types of statutory law

When the meaning of an ambiguous word, phrase or grammatical structure in a statutory provision is disputed, courts are tasked with identifying the best meaning of the contested language. A common method of resolving linguistic ambiguities is to investigate the meaning of the contested word or structure in statutory provisions with similar subject matter. While the subject matter of a text has a demonstrated effect on language use, register variation research shows that the function of a text is also highly influential in predicting linguistic variation. Thus far, the function of a statutory provision (e.g., obligation to act, authorization to act) has not been considered in legal interpretative research. In the present study, I investigate the extent to which function influences the lexico-grammatical characteristics of statutory texts. 2,573 statutory provisions from the Arizona State Code are individually assigned to one of seven categories representing their function: Duties, Permissions, Impersonal Rules, Operational Definitions, Prohibitions, Procedural Guidelines, and Criminal Offenses. Key feature analysis is used to identify and describe patterns of lexico-grammatical variation between the seven functional types. Results reveal a great deal of lexico-grammatical variation associated with function in the register of statutory law. Furthermore, some functional types of statutory provisions are more linguistically distinct than others. In conclusion, these findings suggest that it may be beneficial to consider communicative function when investigating legal interpretative questions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing

A main challenge towards ensuring large-scale and seamless integration of photovoltaic systems is to improve the accuracy of energy yield forecasts, especially in grid areas of high photovoltaic shares. The scope of this paper is to address this issue by presenting a unified methodology for hourly-averaged day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasts with improved accuracy, based on data-driven machine learning techniques and statistical post-processing. More specifically, the proposed forecasting methodology framework comprised of a data quality stage, data-driven power output machine learning model development (artificial neural networks), weather clustering assessment (K-means clustering), post-processing output optimisation (linear regressive correction method) and the final performance accuracy evaluation. The results showed that the application of linear regression coefficients to the forecasted outputs of the developed day-ahead photovoltaic power production neural network improved the performance accuracy by further correcting solar irradiance forecasting biases. The resulting optimised model provided a mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% when applied to historical system datasets. Finally, the model was validated both, at a hot as well as a cold semi-arid climatic location, and the obtained results demonstrated close agreement by yielding forecasting accuracies of mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Finally, the validation analysis provides evidence that the proposed model exhibits high performance in both forecasting accuracy and stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic analysis of advanced small modular nuclear reactors

Here, small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) represent a robust opportunity to develop low-carbon and reliable power with the potential to meet cost parity with conventional power systems. This study presents a detailed, bottom-up economic evaluation of a 12 × 77 MW e (924 MW e total) light-water SMR (LW-SMR) plant, a 4 × 262 MW e (1,048 MW e ) gas-cooled SMR (GC-SMR) plant, and a 5 × 200 MW e (1,000 MW e total) molten salt SMR (MS-SMR) plant. Cost estimates are derived from equipment costs, labor hours, material inputs, and process-engineering models. The advanced SMRs are compared to natural gas combined cycle plants with and without post-combustion carbon capture and a conventional large nuclear reactor. Overnight capital cost (OCC) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimates are developed. The OCC of the LW-SMR, GC-SMR, and MS-SMR are found to be $\$4,844$/kW, $\$4,355$/kW, and $\$3,985$/kW respectively. The LCOE of the LW-SMR, GC-SMR, and MS-SMR are found to be $\$89.6$/MWh, $\$81.5$/MWh, and $\$80.6$/MWh respectively. A Monte Carlo analysis is performed, for which the OCC and construction time of the LW-SMR is found to have a lower mean and standard deviation than a conventional large reactor. The LW-SMR OCC is found to have a mean of $\$5,233$/kW with a standard deviation of $\$658$/kW and a 90 % probability of remaining between $\$4,254$/kW and $\$6,399$/kW, while the construction duration is found to have a mean of 4.5 years with a standard deviation of 0.8 years and a 90 % probability of remaining between 3.4 and 6.0 years. The economic impact of economies of scale, simplification, modularization, and construction time for SMRs are discussed. Additionally, policy implications for direct SMR capital subsidies and the impact of a carbon tax on natural gas emissions are explored.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Source attribution of near-surface ozone pollution in Jiangsu Province of China over 2013–2019

Near-surface ozone (O3) is one of the most severe air pollutants in China, particularly over densely populated Jiangsu Province in the Yangtze River Delta. In this study, an O3 source tagging technique is utilized in a chemistry-climate model to quantify the source contributions of various emission sectors and regions for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to O3 concentrations in Jiangsu Province during 2013–2019. The results show that the near-surface O3 in Jiangsu Province is mainly contributed by surrounding and remote anthropogenic NOx emissions through long-range transport. Local anthropogenic NOx emissions account for only 13 % and 18 % of the annual and summertime mean near-surface O3 in Jiangsu Province, respectively. Anthropogenic NOx emissions from the surface transportation, industry, and energy sectors account for 21 %, 22 % and 20 % of the annual mean near-surface O3 concentration in Jiangsu Province, respectively. Biogenic and anthropogenic VOCs emissions each explains one-third of the annual mean near-surface O3 concentration in Jiangsu, while methane and stratospheric chemical production contribute 21 % and 6 %, respectively. The sources from stratospheric production, aircraft, lightning, and foreign emissions are the primary contributors to O3 in the mid- and high troposphere. During high pollution days in Jiangsu Province, the near-surface O3 concentrations increase with the maximum exceeding 20 ppb, which is attributed to both the enhanced photochemical production and regional transport in favorable meteorological conditions.

ozone pollution↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intra-annual variations of regional total column ozone, aerosol optical depth, and water vapor from ground-based, satellite-based and model-based observations

The Microtops II ozonometer has been deployed to continuously measure the total column ozone (TCO), pre-cipitable water content (PWC) and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at Atigre village (16.74° N, 74.37° E, 604 m above sea level, masl) located on the southeastern slope of Indian western Ghats. The Microtops II ozonometer measurements during the period from September 2017 to June 2018 were analyzed along with the retrieved products of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard NASA's Terra satellites and also the ERA-interim reanalysis model. We found that the TCO (or PWC) data from the OMI (or MODIS) and the ERA reanalysis model data products are in good agreement. The mea-surements showed strong seasonal variability such that TCO was lowest in the winter season but increased in the summer season, and both PWC and AOT were lowest in the post-monsoon season and increased in the summer season. In continuous ERA-interim reanalysis TCO observations, we found the three types of periodicities in the daily mean TCO as well as PWC (i) The weekly (7 days), (ii) quasi-biweekly (14 to 16 days), (iii) Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) (30–60 days) oscillations. These oscillations depend on the periodic weather changes in the troposphere. We also observe that the average day to day variability in daily mean TCO observations in the observational period is about 1.4%, 1.1%, 2.62% in the Microtops II ozonometer, ERA-interim reanalysis, and OMI data respectively. We found the positive correlation between daily mean AOT and PWC in all seasons (except monsoon), which is maximum in the winter season, showing the hygroscopic nature of aerosols. The sources of water vapor and aerosol at our location are also studied using back-trajectory analysis.

Nade, Dada R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

An assessment of the harvesting and fuel performance of a single-pass cut-and-chip harvester in commercial-scale short-rotation poplar crops as influenced by crop and weather conditions

There is a need for data on commercial-scale harvesting operations in hybrid poplar short rotation crops to better understand costs and logistics, especially for modeling large scale biorefineries. An investigation was conducted on the in-field performance of a single-pass cut-and-chip harvester operating in commercial fields for over 370 individual wagon loads representing a range of crop and field conditions. Mean material capacity peaked at 70 Mg h -1 in dry conditions in lower biomass (<60 Mg ha -1 ), but was only 28 Mg h -1 during wet conditions and often higher standing biomass. Wet ground conditions require the harvester to divert additional power to maintaining forward movement, which results in decreased material capacity and increased fuel consumption. Crops with higher standing biomass had taller trees that do not always feed as smoothly into the harvester, slowing forward progress and lowering material capacity. Mean crop specific fuel consumption, L of fuel per Mg of biomass processed, generally decreased as standing biomass increased. When standing biomass was above 40 Mg ha -1 mean crop specific fuel consumption (FCC) was 1.69 L Mg -1 in dry conditions and 3.98 L Mg -1 in wet conditions, but when standing biomass was below 40 Mg ha-1 FCC increased drastically (as high as 5 L Mg -1 ) because the harvester is putting more effort into forward speed instead of material processing. Developing relationships between material capacity and fuel consumption based on standing biomass and ground conditions at representative scales are essential for conducting environmental and economic analyses of these systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermodynamic re-modelling of the Cu–Nb–Sn system: Integrating the nausite phase

Currently available Cu–Nb–Sn phase diagrams lack the recently discovered nausite phase (Cu,Nb)Sn 2 , which is an important intermediate in the course of thermal processing of superconducting Nb 3 Sn wires. Processing decisively determines the resulting microstructure of Nb 3 Sn and, thus, its superconducting properties. Lack of suitable and complete phase diagrams, however, obstructs rational design of such thermal processing procedures. To close this gap and to obtain valid knowledge of homogeneity and stability range of nausite, various Cu–Nb–Sn samples, which are heat-treated between 300 °C and 500 °C, are investigated. By means of energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), a temperature-dependent homogeneity range of nausite is observed, which covers average mole fractions of Cu between 0.09 and 0.15. This is correlated with a change in the mean atomic volume and can be seen in the lattice parameters determined by X-ray diffraction (XRD). Additionally performed first-principles calculations on different CuSn 2 and NbSn 2 model structures confirm this trend. Furthermore, the peritectic decomposition of nausite to NbSn 2 and liquid at 586 °C is determined by means of in situ XRD and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). By using the CALPHAD (CALculation of PHase Diagrams) approach, all these findings are used to extend a previous thermodynamic description of the Cu–Nb–Sn system by including the nausite as an additional phase. Finally, with this noteworthy integration, the updated modelling of the Cu–Nb–Sn system can be used for optimizing the multistage heat-treatment steps during processing superconducting Nb 3 Sn wires.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the benefits of kinetic Monte Carlo and microkinetic modeling for catalyst design studies in the presence of lateral interactions

Popular computational catalyst design strategies rely on the identification of reactivity descriptors, which can be used along with Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi (BEP) and scaling relations as input to a microkinetic model (MKM) to make predictions for activity or selectivity trends. The main benefit of this approach is related to the inherent dimensionality reduction of the large material space to just a few catalyst descriptors. Conversely, it is well documented that a small set of descriptors is insufficient to capture the intricacies and complexities of a real catalytic system. The inclusion of coverage effects through lateral adsorbate-adsorbate interactions can narrow the gap between simplified descriptor predictions and real systems, but mean-field MKMs cannot properly account for local coverage effects. This shortcoming of the mean-field approximation can be rectified by switching to a lattice-based kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) method using cluster expansion representation of adsorbate–adsorbate lateral interactions. Using the prototypical CO oxidation reaction as an example, we critically evaluate the benefits of kMC over MKM in terms of trend predictions and computational cost when using only a small set of input parameters. After confirming that in the absence of lateral interactions the kMC and MKM approaches yield identical trends and mechanistic information, we observed substantial differences between the two kinetic models when lateral interactions were introduced. Here, the mean-field implementation applies coverage corrections directly to the descriptors, causing an artificial overprediction of the activity of strongly binding metals. In contrast, the cluster expansion in kMC implementation can differentiate among the highly active metals but it is very sensitive to the set of included interaction parameters. Considering that computational screening relies on a minimal set of descriptors, for which MKM makes reasonable trend predictions at a ca. three orders of magnitude lower computational cost than kMC, the MKM approach does provide a better entry point for computational catalyst design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced-Order Modeling Method for Phase-Change Thermal Energy Storage Heat Exchangers

Thermal energy storage can facilitate the effective utilization of renewable energy. To speed up the design process of thermal energy storage devices, it is critical to develop fast and accurate modeling methods for phase change material embedded heat exchangers (PCM HXs). This study developed and compared two approximation-assisted reduced-order PCM HX models for the simulation of thermal storage components and systems, which were verified against a validated finite-volume model. They are a pure black-box model, and a grey-box model based on the Number of Transfer Units (or effectiveness-NTU) approach. We used the reduced-order models to predict the performance of standalone PCM HX for 1000 cases with different fluid inlet conditions and HX designs. We also integrated the models with a vapor compression system to predict the compressor energy consumption and total charging time under various conditions. The results show that overall, the black-box model gave more accurate results than the grey-box model. On average, the mean absolute deviation in the PCM HX fluid outlet temperature was 0.05 K and 0.1 K for the black-box model and grey-box model, respectively. The grey-box model gave larger temperature deviation toward the end of the phase change process, due to the simplified two-node PCM representation. On the system level, the mean absolute deviation in compressor energy consumption was 0.2% and 0.3% for the black-box model and grey-box model, respectively. Their mean absolute deviation in total charging time was 1.1% and 2.6%, respectively. In terms of computation efficiency, the system simulation speedup ratio gained by using the reduced-order models was 11 to 57. System simulation time was decreased from an average of 1465 s to an average of 59 s. This shows that the proposed reduced-order modeling methods can be used to predict system performance of PCM HXs with less than 3% accuracy penalty, and 25 times less computational time than finite-volume models, enabling faster design and evaluation of PCM thermal storage devices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-throughput screening tools facilitate calculation of a combined exposure-bioactivity index for chemicals with endocrine activity

High-throughput and computational tools provide a new opportunity to calculate combined bioactivity of exposure to diverse chemicals acting through a common mechanism. We used high throughput in vitro bioactivity data and exposure predictions from the U.S. EPA’s Toxicity and Exposure Forecaster (ToxCast and ExpoCast) to estimate combined estrogen receptor (ER) agonist activity of non-pharmaceutical chemical exposures for the general U.S. population. High-throughput toxicokinetic (HTTK) data provide conversion factors that relate bioactive concentrations measured in vitro (µM), to predicted population geometric mean exposure rates (mg/kg/day). These data were available for 22 chemicals with ER agonist activity and were estimated for other ER bioactive chemicals based on the geometric mean of HTTK values across chemicals. For each chemical, ER bioactivity across ToxCast assays was compared to predicted population geometric mean exposure at different levels of in vitro potency and model certainty. Dose additivity was assumed in calculating a Combined Exposure-Bioactivity Index (CEBI), the sum of exposure/bioactivity ratios. Combined estrogen bioactivity was also calculated in terms of the percent maximum bioactivity of chemical mixtures in human plasma using a concentration-addition model. Estimated CEBIs vary greatly depending on assumptions used for exposure and bioactivity. In general, CEBI values were <1 when using median of the estimated general population chemical intake rates, while CEBI were ≥1 when using the upper 95th confidence bound for those same intake rates for all chemicals. Concentration-addition model predictions of mixture bioactivity yield comparable results. Based on current in vitro bioactivity data, HTTK methods, and exposure models, combined exposure scenarios sufficient to influence estrogen bioactivity in the general population cannot be ruled out. Future improvements in screening methods and computational models could reduce uncertainty and better inform the potential combined effects of estrogenic chemicals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of turbulence on the flame structure and NO formation of ammonia turbulent premixed combustion at various equivalence ratios

Ammonia is carbon-free and is regarded as a potential fuel to address global warming issues. Here, in this work, three-dimensional direct numerical simulations (DNS) of ammonia/air turbulent premixed flames were performed to explore the influence of turbulence and equivalence ratio on the flame structure and NO formation characteristics. Two equivalence ratios were considered, i.e. Φ=0.9 and Φ=1.1. The general flame structures were presented and species distributions were examined. The NO mass fraction was found to be the highest in the product for the lean case and in the reaction zone for the rich case. The conditional mean values of species mass fractions and reaction rates were compared with those of the unstrained and strained laminar premixed flames to explore how well the laminar flame structures can approach those of the turbulent flame. The budget analysis of the species transport equations showed that turbulent diffusion plays an important role in species transport. The turbulent diffusivity D T was estimated using the gradient hypothesis based on the DNS data. Various laminar flame simulations with different diffusivities were carried out. It was shown that the conditional means of the DNS agree well with those of the laminar flames including D T in the transport property calculation. The global and local NO formation characteristics were investigated. It was found that the mean NO production conditioned on the progress variable is lower compared with the corresponding laminar flame in the rich case. However, the relative contributions from various NO pathways are rarely affected by turbulence. The NO mass fraction is higher in negative curvature regions compared with positive curvature regions of the flame surface for the rich case, which is due to the preferential diffusion of H 2 and other radicals and the enhanced NO pathways in negatively curved regions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamics of hydrogen–ammonia–natural gas lean-premixed high-pressure flames

The influence of fuel composition on self-excited combustion instabilities in a high-pressure combustor operated with ammonia, hydrogen, and natural gas fuels is characterized with high-frequency pressure measurements and imaging of the flame structure. A micromix multi-stage injector with 19 elements is used to introduce the fuel blend premixed with heated air into an optically accessible combustor operated at ~1.1 MPa. As hydrogen is substituted for natural gas, longitudinal thermoacoustic instabilities are observed in the combustor with pressure fluctuation amplitudes as large as 8% of the mean chamber value. In the absence of natural gas, limit-cycle instability magnitude is largely insensitive to ammonia addition. However, fuel compositions with > 20% natural gas result in positive correlation between instability amplitude and ammonia concentration. Spatial distribution of heat release in the combustor evaluated from OH* chemiluminescence imaging reveals axial growth in the regions of heat release fluctuation as hydrogen decreases, thus correlating flame length to instability amplitude. Distinct transitions from the first harmonic of the fundamental longitudinal acoustic mode (~1100 Hz) to the fundamental mode (~550 Hz) are observed with root mean square pressure fluctuations exceeding 7% of the mean chamber value. Here, these cases correspond to hydrogen mole fractions ≤ 50%. Analysis of the phase relationship between pressure fluctuations upstream and downstream of the flame zone indicates acoustic coupling of the injector as a key contributor to instability growth.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A physics-based model for frost buildup under turbulent flow using direct numerical simulations

We present a new model for frost buildup under turbulent (and laminar) flow using direct numerical simulations. The physical model consists of two layers, the air and the frost. The air layer is fully resolved and consists of solving for the velocity, temperature, and vapor mass fraction fields. The frost layer thickness is resolved using conservation of mass and energy. Both phases are dynamically coupled using the immersed boundary method. Three-dimensional simulations are conducted in an open-channel configuration. A number of challenges need to be overcome to make these simulations feasible. First, to enforce far-field conditions of zero gradient and prescribed mean temperature and humidity, a source term is added to the energy and transport equations in the flow solver. Second, the mean frost thickness is subtracted after each time step to ensure a constant mean flow thickness and level of turbulence in the numerical domain. Third, a slow-time acceleration approach, which accelerates the frost buildup by a predetermined factor, is employed to bridge the gap between the fast turbulent and slow frost buildup time scales. Finally, a frost densification scheme is used to overcome the difficulties of vertically varying frost properties. The model is validated by comparing the frost thickness and frost thickness buildup rate over a period of one hour from a cooled flat plate experiment. As a result, both quantities compare favorably with experiments.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unraveling the implications of finite specimen size on the interpretation of dynamic experiments for polycrystalline aluminum through direct numerical simulations

Normal and Pressure-shear plate impact (NPI and PSPI) experiments are popular experimental techniques for studying the mean-field macroscopic behavior of polycrystalline metals under high-rate dynamic loading. However, since both configurations rely upon geometry for subjecting the specimen to high strain rates, these experiments often involve a limited specimen size. Moreover, because of the inherent heterogeneities present within polycrystalline metals, it is difficult to ascertain if the size of the specimen and/or regions where measurements are made are sufficiently large for making representative inferences about the mean-field macroscopic properties from single-point velocity measurements. In the present study, we quantify the expected measurement variability on observable point measurements in NPI and PSPI experiments by carrying out direct numerical simulations (DNS) of statistically representative polycrystalline microstructures subjected to dynamic compression and compression-shear loading. In particular, we consider the role of specific material heterogeneities (e.g. the grain-to-grain difference in size, crystallographic orientation) on dispersion in the normal and transverse particle velocity records and on local fluctuations in key state variables (e.g. velocity, accumulated plastic strain) by incorporating these effects directly into a representative synthetic microstructure geometry and crystalline description of pure polycrystalline aluminum. The form of the present study is a large parametric investigation, consisting of ten ensembles of one hundred simulations. Each of the thousand simulations reflects a randomly realized synthetic microstructure in one of five cases of decreasing average grain size for the two loading configurations. Our analysis of the DNS results demonstrates that for both of these experimental configurations, the grain size directly correlates with the coefficient of variation (CV) in simulated point measurements, showing a convergent decrease in CV to zero (i.e. particle velocity record approaches the mean-field value) with decreasing grain size. Remarkably, the magnitude of variations in the particle velocity record is shown to be largest where the deviatoric stresses are most significant. In the case of NPI, this occurs at the elastic and plastic wavefront, whereas, in the case of PSPI, the magnitude of fluctuations are approximately constant throughout the experimental window time. The reasoning for the scatter in particle velocity due to the heterogeneous microstructure is demonstrated to be dependent on the mechanisms for accommodating deformation and on the interaction of reflection waves generated at sites of heterogeneities occurring at the scale of grains. Lastly, we develop a power-law description for the magnitude of scattering versus characteristic length, which provides a statistical framework for assessing the required number of grains per characteristic specimen dimension for minimizing scatter within these two experimental configurations (NPI, PSPI).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A generalized approximate control variate framework for multifidelity uncertainty quantification

We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost models — which are typically lower fidelity with unknown statistics — are used to reduce the variance in statistical estimators relative to a MC estimator with equivalent cost. We derive the conditions under which our proposed approximate control variate framework recovers existing multifidelity variance reduction schemes as special cases. We demonstrate that existing recursive/nested strategies are suboptimal because they use the additional low-fidelity models only to efficiently estimate the unknown mean of the first low-fidelity model. As a result, they cannot achieve variance reduction beyond that of a control variate estimator that uses a single low-fidelity model with known mean. However, there often exists about an order-of-magnitude gap between the maximum achievable variance reduction using all low-fidelity models and that achieved by a single low-fidelity model with known mean. We show that our proposed approach can exploit this gap to achieve greater variance reduction by using non-recursive sampling schemes. The proposed strategy reduces the total cost of accurately estimating statistics, especially in cases where only low-fidelity simulation models are accessible for additional evaluations. Several analytic examples and an example with a hyperbolic PDE describing elastic wave propagation in heterogeneous media are used to illustrate the main features of the methodology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

A new multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

Process-based models have been widely used for hydrologic modeling, and it is a common practice to use sensitivity analysis methods for excluding non-influential hydrologic processes from further investigation and/or model improvement. This study develops a new method called multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential system processes and parameters. MMADS is conceptually similar to the Morris method for addressing parametric uncertainty, but has a unique feature to address both process model uncertainty (i.e., a process may be represented by multiple process models) and process model parameter uncertainty (i.e., parameters associated with a process model are random). MMADS first evaluates absolute differences of a quantity of interest (i.e., a system model output) by varying process models and/or process model parameter values, and then calculates the mean and variance of the differences for investigating process influence. The mean measures overall influence of the process on the quantity of interest, and the variance estimates influence of nonlinear effects of the process and/or its interactions with other processes. MMADS is an extension of the Morris method from a parameter space to a joint parameter-model space for explicitly addressing both process model uncertainty and model parameter uncertainty. The performance of MMADS is evaluated by using two numerical experiments. One experiment is based on Sobol’s G*-function with ten product elements, and has analytical solutions of the MMADS mean and variance of absolute differences. The other experiment is for groundwater flow modeling which considers three processes (i.e., recharge, geology, and snowmelt) that interact with each other. Finally, results indicate that MMADS is computationally efficient and can identify non-influential processes of complex hydrological systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid analytical and numerical model for cross-over and performance decay in a unit cell vanadium redox flow battery

Developing an accurate and efficient model for cross-over is critical for improving the long-term performance of redox flow batteries (RFBs). Here, this work presents a hybrid analytical and numerical model that combines a two-dimensional analytical solution to the active species, a one-dimensional analytical model for cross-over mechanisms, and a zero-dimensional numerical model for outlet concentrations of reactants. By comparing with experiment over 41 cycles (ca. 144 h), the model reported a mean voltage difference of 0.0089 V, mean time difference of 14 s per cycle (of 3.5 h), maximum relative difference for capacity and energy of 1.34% and 1.63%, respectively. The predicted mean concentrations for V 2+ , V 3+ , and VO$_{2}^{+}$ in membrane are 65%~77% of measured values from the literature. Upon validation, the model reproduced behaviors in electrolyte imbalance similar to those observed in experiments and numerical models, and revealed the control of cross-over, self-discharge, stoichiometry of side reactions, and Coulombic efficiency on electrolyte imbalance. The model also demonstrates excellent computational efficiency for simulating 41 cycles (around 37,000 points) within 3~4 s. The demonstrated efficiency and accuracy for predicting cross-over and its impacts on voltage, capacity&energy decay, membrane concentrations, and electrolyte imbalance makes it a reliable tool for optimizing RFBs’ long-term performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗