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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of hydrogenation on the vibrational density of states of magnetocaloric LaFe 11.4 Si 1.6 H 1.6

We report on the impact of magnetoelastic coupling on the magnetocaloric properties of LaFe 11.4 Si 1.6 H 1.6 in terms of the vibrational (phonon) density of states (VDOS), which we determined with 57 Fe nuclear resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (NRIXS) measurements and with density functional theory (DFT) based first-principles calculations in the ferromagnetic (FM) low-temperature and paramagnetic (PM) high-temperature phase. In experiments and calculations, we observe pronounced differences in the shape of the Fe-partial VDOS between nonhydrogenated and hydrogenated samples. Furthermore, this shows that hydrogen not only shifts the temperature of the first-order phase transition, but also affects the elastic response of the Fe subsystem significantly. In turn, the anomalous redshift of the Fe VDOS, observed by going to the low-volume PM phase, survives hydrogenation. As a consequence, the change in the Fe-specific vibrational entropy ΔS lat across the phase transition has the same sign as the magnetic and electronic contribution. DFT calculations show that the same mechanism, which is a consequence of the itinerant electron metamagnetism associated with the Fe subsystem, is effective in both the hydrogenated and the hydrogen-free compounds. Although reduced by 50% as compared to the hydrogen-free system, the measured change ΔS lat of 3.2 ± 1.9)J/ kg K across the FM-to-PM transition contributes with ~35 % significantly and cooperatively to the total isothermal entropy change ΔS iso . Hydrogenation is observed to induce an overall blueshift of the Fe VDOS with respect to the H-free compound; this effect, together with the enhanced Debye temperature observed, is a fingerprint of the hardening of the Fe sublattice by hydrogen incorporation. In addition, the mean Debye velocity of sound of LaFe 11.4 Si 1.6 H 1.6 was determined from the NRIXS and the DFT data.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Millisecond lifetimes and coherence times in 2D transmon qubits

Materials improvement is a powerful approach to reducing loss and decoherence in superconducting qubits, because such improvements can be readily translated to large-scale processors. Recent work improved transmon coherence by using tantalum as a base layer and sapphire as a substrate. The losses in these devices are dominated by two-level systems with comparable contributions from both the surface and bulk dielectrics, indicating that both must be tackled to achieve substantial improvements in the state of the art. Here we show that replacing the substrate with high-resistivity silicon markedly decreases the bulk substrate loss, enabling 2D transmons with time-averaged quality factors (Q avg ) of 9.7 × 10 6 across 45 qubits. For our best qubit, we achieve a Q avg of 1.5 × 10 7 , reaching a maximum Q of 2.5 × 10 7 , corresponding to a lifetime (T 1 ) up to 1.68 ms. This low loss also allows us to observe decoherence effects related to the Josephson junction, and we use an improved, low-contamination junction deposition to achieve Hahn echo coherence times (T 2E ) exceeding T 1 . We achieve these materials improvements without any modifications to the qubit architecture, allowing us to readily incorporate standard quantum control gates. Here, we demonstrate single-qubit gates with 99.994% fidelity. The tantalum-on-silicon platform comprises a simple material stack that can potentially be fabricated at the wafer scale and therefore can be readily translated to large-scale quantum processors.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Super Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data With Wind From Reanalysis Data (Sup3rWind) and Application to Ukraine [Slides]

In this work we present a novel deep learning-based downscaling method, using generative adversarial networks (GANs), for generating high-resolution wind resource data from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 data (ERA5). We show that by training a GAN model on ERA5, as opposed to coarsened high-resolution data, we achieve results that are competitive with conventional dynamical downscaling. This GAN-based downscaling method additionally reduces computational costs over dynamical downscaling by two orders of magnitude. All GANs are trained on data sampled from CONUS, selected to provide a diverse sampling of terrain conditions, and validated on observational data along with data held out from training. This cross-validation shows low error and high correlations with observations and excellent agreement with hold out data across physical distributions. Our approach is finally used to downscale 30km hourly ERA5 to 2-km 5-minute wind data, for January 2000 through December 2023, at multiple hub heights, over Ukraine, Moldova, and part of Romania. Comparisons against observational data from Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) and multiple wind farms show the same level of performance as for CONUS validation. This 24 year data record is the first member of the "super resolution for renewable energy resource data with wind from reanalysis data" dataset (Sup3rWind).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Edge Localized Mode (ELM) Mitigation by Pellet Triggering in Smallest-Possible Affordable Robust Compact (SPARC) Low-Collisionality Discharges

Simulations of pellet edge-localized mode (ELM) triggering with the M3D-C1 code confirmed experimentally observed pellet mass thresholds in low-collisionality DIII-D discharges and predicted extremely large thresholds in ITER [A. Wingen et al, Nucl. Fusion 64, 066015(2024)]. The linear (static) and nonlinear (dynamic) workflows developed in this previous work are now applied to the SPARC tokamak. Multiple synthetic equilibria for the high-performance H-mode scenario are tested for MHD stability without pellets using the linear workflow and ELITE simulations; a stable one is identified. Pellets of various mass are injected along an inboard, near-midplane trajectory in the M3D-C1 simulation. No pellet mass threshold for ELM triggering can be found for realistic pellet masses, concluding that fueling from this injection location would not trigger ELMs. A poloidal scan of possible injection locations shows very high thresholds on the high-field side and reasonable thresholds on the low-field-side (LFS). Based on results of this work the location for a LFS injection was finalized in the SPARC design. For this LFS injection the pellet mass threshold is determined using the linear workflow, aligning well with the poloidal scan.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Edge Localized Mode (ELM) Mitigation by Pellet Triggering in Smallest-Possible Affordable Robust Compact (SPARC) Low-Collisionality Discharges

Simulations of pellet edge-localized mode (ELM) triggering with the M3D-C1 code confirmed experimentally observed pellet mass thresholds in low-collisionality DIII-D discharges and predicted extremely large thresholds in ITER. The linear (static) and nonlinear (dynamic) workflows developed in this previous work are now applied to the SPARC tokamak. Multiple synthetic equilibria for the high-performance H-mode scenario are tested for MHD stability without pellets using the linear workflow and ELITE simulations; a stable one is identified. Pellets of various mass are injected along an inboard, near-midplane trajectory in the M3D-C1 simulation. No pellet mass threshold for ELM triggering can be found for realistic pellet masses, concluding that fueling from this injection location would not trigger ELMs. A poloidal scan of possible injection locations shows very high thresholds on the high-field side and reasonable thresholds on the low-field-side (LFS). Based on results of this work the location for a LFS injection was finalized in the SPARC design. For this LFS injection the pellet mass threshold is determined using the linear workflow, aligning well with the poloidal scan.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simulation to a Newborn Supernova Remnant from a Low-mass Iron Core Star

Supernova remnant observations show a high degree of asymmetry, mixing, and inhomogeneity. These asymmetries are seeded during the early seconds of the explosion and are further enhanced and modified as the shock and ejecta move through the stellar progenitor and into the circumstellar medium. We present simulations of a 9.6 M⊙ zero-metallicity progenitor initialized after shock revival and evolved for several years when the ejecta is in the circumstellar medium. A suite of 1D and 2D simulations examines the effects of neutron-star wind and radioactive decay heating. In 1D, decay heating forms a low-density bubble that suppresses the reverse shock. While in 2D, the heating is localized to metal-rich pockets, inflating them and compressing the surrounding material into dense shells. In 3D, the neutron-star wind and decay heating modify the plume morphology, producing more large-scale structures. The extended plume morphology leads to an asymmetrical shock breakout. After breakout, the leading plumes cannot keep up with the shock front, resulting in deceleration and fragmentation by the reverse shock while retaining the large-scale asymmetry. The projected ejecta morphology and velocities are strongly viewing angle dependent. The relatively uniform metal-rich distribution does not resemble the strongly inhomogeneous ejecta structure of Cas A. The 160-isotope decay network shows that 24.4% of the radioactive heating comes from decay chains other than the canonical 56Ni chain. The low explosion energy, low 56Ni yield, and Ni/Fe ratio greater than unity suggest an observational signature similar to an electron capture supernova.

Neopane, Sudarshan [University of Tennessee (UT)]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Low-Temperature Neutron Irradiation on Tensile Behavior of Base Metal and Electron-Beam Welded 316L Stainless Steel

Here, a study of 316L type stainless steel in its base metal and electron-beam (e-beam) welded conditions was performed to observe the effects of low-temperature (60 °C to 100 °C) neutron irradiation on the tensile behavior of the samples. Fractography was used in understanding the tensile-tested fracture surfaces of the 316L samples in these different forms with the characterization of the both base metal and welded samples using electron microscopy. Irradiation of the tensile specimens made free of defects of cutting and mechanical polishing showed a reduction in their tensile ductility with increased radiation-induced hardening up to 1.40 × 10 19 n/cm 2 (E > 0.1 MeV) fluence that corresponds to 1.1x 10 -2 dpa, even at the low irradiation temperatures. These low-temperature neutron irradiated base metal and e-beam welded 316L specimens also consisted of closely similar fracture surfaces characteristic of ductile rupture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of the molten salt FMgNaK through ab initio molecular dynamics and experimental density measurements

The selection of a salt species for use in a molten salt reactor MSR is a key part of any MSR design. However, many salts have sparse or no thermophysical property data sets, especially those with higher melting points. One such salt is the eutectic mixture of (NaF)0.345(KF)0.59(MgF 2 )0.065, or FMgNaK, and is explored here through ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulation (1023-1273K) as well as experimental measurement of the liquid density using the Archimedean method (973-1223K). Predicted densities from AIMD are similar to experimentally-measured densities, though with more noise, suggesting that the small scale necessitated by AIMD simulations may be problematic for simulating FMgNaK in particular. Here the coefficient of thermal expansion is predicted from simulation, and salt structure is characterized. Mg-F-Mg chaining is observed in the salt network, though the low concentration of Mg inhibits chaining on the scale that is observed in (LiF) 0.67 (BeF 2 ) 0.33 , or FLiBe.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simultaneous observations of the blazar PKS 2155-304 from ultra-violet to TeV energies

Here we report the results of the first ever contemporaneous multi-wavelength observation campaign on the BL Lac object PKS 2155−304 involving Swift , NuSTAR , Fermi -LAT, and H.E.S.S. The use of these instruments allows us to cover a broad energy range, which is important for disentangling the different radiative mechanisms. The source, observed from June 2013 to October 2013, was found in a low flux state with respect to previous observations but exhibited highly significant flux variability in the X-rays. The high-energy end of the synchrotron spectrum can be traced up to 40 keV without significant contamination by high-energy emission. A one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model was used to reproduce the broadband flux of the source for all the observations presented here but failed for previous observations made in April 2013. A lepto-hadronic solution was then explored to explain these earlier observational results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microtopographic and Depth Controls on Active Layer Chemistry in Arctic Polygonal Ground: Supporting Data

Polygonal ground is a signature characteristic of the Arctic, and permafrost thaw can potentially generate substantial feedbacks to Arctic ecosystems and climate. This study describes the first comprehensive spatial examination of active layer biogeochemistry that extends across high- and low-centered polygons and their features, including depth. Water chemistry measurements were made on active layer water samples collected near Barrow, Alaska during summer, 2012. Several significant differences in chemistry were observed between high- and low-centered polygons suggesting polygon types may be useful for landscape-scale geochemical classification. However, differences were found for polygon features (centers and troughs) for analytes that were not significant for type, suggesting that finer scale features control biogeochemistry in a different way than polygon type. Depth variations were also significant, demonstrating important multi-dimensional aspects of polygonal ground biogeochemistry. These results have major implications for understanding how polygonal ground ecosystems function, and how they may respond to future change. This data package includes one *.csv data file and one *.pdf user guide. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

IceCube Search for Neutrinos Coincident with Gravitational Wave Events from LIGO/Virgo Run O3

Using data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, we searched for high-energy neutrino emission from the gravitational-wave events detected by the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors during their third observing run. We did a low-latency follow-up on the public candidate events released during the detectors' third observing run and an archival search on the 80 confident events reported in the GWTC-2.1 and GWTC-3 catalogs. An extended search was also conducted for neutrino emission on longer timescales from neutron star containing mergers. Follow-up searches on the candidate optical counterpart of GW190521 were also conducted. We used two methods; an unbinned maximum likelihood analysis and a Bayesian analysis using astrophysical priors, both of which were previously used to search for high-energy neutrino emission from gravitational-wave events. No significant neutrino emission was observed by any analysis, and upper limits were placed on the time-integrated neutrino flux as well as the total isotropic equivalent energy emitted in high-energy neutrinos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A statistical study of three-second foreshock ULF waves observed by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission

We perform a statistical study of 3-s ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves using Magnetospheric Multiscale observations in the Earth's foreshock region. The average phase velocity in the plasma rest frame is determined to be anti-sunward, and the intrinsic polarization is right-handed. We further examine the linear instability conditions based on the drift-bi-Maxwellian distribution functions according to the observed plasma conditions. The resulting instability is a solution to the common dispersion equation of the ion/ion right-hand non-resonant and left-hand resonant instabilities. The predicted wave propagation is also predominantly anti-sunward. The cyclotron resonant conditions of the solar wind and backstreaming beam ions are evaluated, and we find that, in some cases, the anti-sunward propagating waves can be resonant with beam ions, which was overlooked in previous studies. The study suggests that the dispersion equation provides the 3-s ULF waves a fundamental explanation that unifies a rich variety of resonant conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct observation of annealing-driven recrystallization behavior in magnesium alloy at low strain condition

Grain-twin interactions are significant in texture modification under thermodynamic driving force. In this study, annealing-driven twinning/detwinning behavior, grain growth, and corresponding texture evolution in a pre-deformed AZ31 magnesium alloy were systematically tracked and investigated via in-situ heating synchrotron X-ray diffraction and quasi in-situ electron backscattered diffraction techniques. A twinning texture is generated in the pre-deformed sample due to the activation of {$10\bar{1}2$} tensile twinning. During annealing, dislocation annihilation occurs between 100 and 280 °C, and recrystallization occurs above 280 °C, manifesting as the initial residual matrix and twins being competitively swallowed by each other, forming a bimodal texture. The recrystallization process is completed by boundary movement, which depends on the energy difference across the boundary. In addition, it is found that the grain boundaries favor movement towards the side with higher stored energy, regardless of the boundary type or the boundary energy.

In-situ observation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Small-scale clumping at recombination and the Hubble tension

Despite the success of the standard ΛCDM model of cosmology, recent data improvements have made tensions emerge between low- and high-redshift observables, most importantly in determinations of the Hubble constant H 0 and the (rescaled) clustering amplitude S 8 . The high-redshift data, from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), crucially relies on recombination physics for its interpretation. In this work, we study how small-scale baryon inhomogeneities (i.e., clumping) can affect recombination and consider whether they can relieve both the H 0 and S 8 tensions. Such small-scale clumping, which may be caused by primordial magnetic fields or baryon isocurvature below kpc scales, enhances the recombination rate even when averaged over larger scales, shifting recombination to earlier times. We introduce a flexible clumping model, parametrized via three spatial zones with free densities and volume fractions, and use it to study the impact of clumping on CMB observables. We find that increasing H 0 decreases both Ω m and S 8 , which alleviates the S 8 tension. On the other hand, the shift in Ω m is disfavored by the low-z baryon-acoustic-oscillations measurements. We find that the clumping parameters that can change the CMB sound horizon enough to explain the H 0 tension also alter the damping tail, so they are disfavored by current Planck 2018 data. We test how the CMB damping-tail information rules out changes to recombination by first removing ℓ > 1000 multipoles in Planck data, where we find that clumping could resolve the H 0 tension. Furthermore, we make predictions for future CMB experiments, as their improved damping-tail precision can better constrain departures from standard recombination. Both the Simons Observatory and CMB-S4 will provide decisive evidence for or against clumping as a resolution to the H 0 tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observation of Medium-Induced Yield Enhancement and Acoplanarity Broadening of Low-𝑝T Jets from Measurements in 𝑝⁢𝑝 and Central Pb-Pb Collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The ALICE Collaboration reports the measurement of semi-inclusive distributions of charged-particle jets recoiling from a high transverse momentum (high p T ) hadron trigger in proton-proton and central Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. A data-driven statistical method is used to mitigate the large uncorrelated background in central Pb-Pb collisions. Recoil jet distributions are reported for jet resolution parameter R = 0.2, 0.4, and 0.5 in the range 7 < p T.jet < 140 GeV=c and trigger-recoil jet azimuthal separation π/2 < Δφ < π. The measurements exhibit a marked medium-induced jet yield enhancement at low p T and at large azimuthal deviation from Δφ ~ π. The enhancement is characterized by its dependence on Δφ, which has a slope that differs from zero by 4.7σ. Comparisons to model calculations incorporating different formulations of jet quenching are reported. These comparisons indicate that the observed yield enhancement arises from the response of the QGP medium to jet propagation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cracking Behavior of Irradiated Ex-Plant Materials

The cracking behavior of reactor core internal materials is a key factor for the long-term safety and availability of light water reactors. Subject to high-temperature coolant, thermal and mechanical loading, and neutron irradiation, reactor core internal materials are susceptible to several degradation mechanisms during power operation. To understand the long-term effects of neutron irradiation, irradiated materials harvested from a decommissioned reactor were studied for their cracking susceptibility and fracture resistance. Small compact-tension specimens were machined from different locations on the baffle plates with irradiation doses ranging from 0.06 to 48.5 dpa. Crack growth rate and fracture toughness J-resistance (J-R) curve tests were performed on these specimens in a simulated light water reactor environment, and the fracture morphologies of the tested samples were examined with a scanning electron microscope. All samples behaved similarly under cyclic loading, and no deteriorated corrosion-fatigue behavior was observed in the test environments. Under constant load, no elevated cracking susceptibility was observed either in these samples at low stress intensity factors. However, a rapid cracking behavior featuring very high crack growth rates was observed in several high-dose samples. This rapid crack growth behavior was activated when the applied stress intensity factor, K, was sufficiently high. Once activated, the rapid crack growth remained steady even when the K was lowered to the pre-activation level and stopped only when the K was reduced drastically. Yet, the rapid crack growth could be re-activated repeatedly in these samples by raising the K above the initial activation level. This rapid cracking response may be related to the severe irradiation embrittlement experienced by these samples. The J-R curve tests performed with these samples showed a significant decline in fracture toughness with increasing neutron irradiation. Local cracking at the crack tip facilitated by the severe irradiation embrittlement of this material may be responsible for the rapid crack growth behavior demonstrated by this decommissioned material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Planetary Boundary-Layer Height (PBLHT) Value-Added Product: Remote-Sensing Retrievals

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is fundamental to numerous atmospheric processes, including aerosol mixing and transport, cloud evolution, and precipitation formation. A critical parameter in these studies is the PBL height (PBLHT). This vertical depth is essential for characterizing PBL structures in numerical simulations and serves as a primary metric for estimating flux exchanges between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere. Radiosonde (SONDE) observations provide high-vertical-resolution measurements of temperature and moisture profiles and are widely used to estimate PBLHT (Liu and Liang 2010, Seidel et al. 2010). The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s PBLHT value-added product (VAP) for radiosonde measurements, known as PBLHTSONDE, applies three commonly used methods—the Heffter (1980) method, the Liu and Liang (2010) method, and the bulk Richardson number approach (Seibert et al. 2000)—to derive PBLHT. The PBLHTSONDE VAP operates routinely at ARM observatories and mobile facilities, with data available from the ARM Data Center shortly after sounding observations are collected (Sivaraman et al. 2013). However, radiosonde observations are limited by their low temporal resolution. Most stations launch soundings only twice daily, which constrains the ability to investigate and characterize the temporal evolution of the PBL using radiosonde data alone. The use of continuous remote-sensing observations provides high temporal resolution of PBLHT estimates. These observations include aerosol lidars (Dang et al. 2019, Su et al. 2020), Doppler lidar (DL; Tucker et al. 2009, Krishnamurthy et al. 2021), and water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers (Turner et al. 2014). These observations provide valuable data on the PBL’s thermodynamic properties (e.g., water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers), dynamic properties (e.g., DL), and distribution of tracer substances (e.g., aerosol lidars), all of which can be used to estimate PBLHT. ARM developed PBLHT estimates from the micropulse lidar (MPL; PBLHTMPL), Doppler lidar (PBLHTDL), and combined Raman lidar (RL)/atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) thermodynamic profiles (PBLHTTHERMO). Each estimate captures different physical characteristics of the boundary layer—aerosol tracers, vertical velocity turbulence, and thermodynamic structure—and exhibits distinct strengths and limitations depending on the PBL regime and time of day. In addition, the ARM ceilometer (CEIL) provides three potential PBLHT candidates derived from the vendor's built-in algorithm. Building on these individual retrievals, ARM developed the PBLHTBEML VAP, which combines the four remote-sensing-based estimates with ancillary meteorological variables using the machine learning approach of Zhang et al. (2025) to produce a best-estimate PBLHT at 10-minute resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dwarf Galaxy Number Counts within 25 Mpc: Predictions from Local Group Analogs in TNG50

The modern generation of wide-field galaxy surveys, such as LSST, Euclid, and Roman, will enable studies of dwarf galaxies (10 6 ≤ M * /M ⊙ ≤ 10 9 ) beyond the Local Group (LG) in unprecedented detail. Improved theoretical understanding of this population is necessary to guide these observations, since predictions in this regime are generally limited to specific environments like the LG. We present predictions for the population of dwarf galaxies from the TNG50 run of the IllustrisTNG suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, focusing on the environments within 1 < D/Mpc < 25 of LG analogs at z = 0. In the simulated sample, there are ∼1000 and ∼12,000 dwarf galaxies within 10 and 25 Mpc, respectively. We compare our results with the 50 Mpc Galaxy Catalog and estimate that current observations are highly incomplete at low masses: for 10 6 ≤ M * /M ⊙ ≤ 10 7 (−13 ≲ M r ≲ −10), we find completeness fractions of ∼23% within 10 Mpc and ∼4% within 25 Mpc. The simulated galaxies below the completeness limits of the observations exist in a range of environments, with notable populations of field dwarfs at all distances and satellites around centrals with masses 10 8 ≲ M * /M ⊙ ≲ 10 11 within 10–25 Mpc. We find that there are ∼8 times more quiescent dwarf galaxies in the TNG50 sample than are currently cataloged. Our results suggest that upcoming observations should uncover a substantial population of dwarf galaxies, and that ≳15% of these will be red, currently quenched galaxies in the field.

Shread, Evangela E. [California Institute of Techn↗