Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “likelihood”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Modelling multiple occurrences of activities during a day: An extension of the MDCEV model

The increased interest in time use among transport researchers has led to a search for flexible but tractable models of time use, such as Bhat's Multiple Discrete Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) model. MDCEV formulations typically model aggregate time allocation into different activity types during a given period, such as the amount of time spent working and shopping in a day. While these applications provide valuable insights into activity participation, they ignore disaggregate activity-episodes, that is the fact that people might split their total time spent working in multiple separate blocks, with breaks or other activities in between. Insights into this splitting into episodes are necessary for predicting trips and understanding time use satiation. We propose a modified MDCEV model where an activity-episode, rather than an activity type, is the basic choice alternative, using a modified utility function to capture the reduced likelihood of individuals performing a very large number of episodes of the same activity. Results from two large revealed preference datasets exhibit equivalent forecast accuracy between the traditional and proposed approach at an aggregate level, but the latter also provides insights on the number and duration of activity-episodes with significant accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Direct inference of nuclear equation-of-state parameters from gravitational-wave observations

The observation of neutron star mergers with gravitational waves (GWs) has provided a new method to constrain the dense-matter equation of state (EOS) and to better understand its nuclear physics. However, inferring nuclear microphysics from GW observations necessitates the sampling of EOS model parameters that serve as input for each EOS used during the GW data analysis. The sampling of the EOS parameters requires solving the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff (TOV) equations a large number of times—a process that slows down each likelihood evaluation in the analysis on the order of a few seconds. Here, we employ emulators for the TOV equations built using multilayer perceptron neural networks to enable direct inference of nuclear EOS parameters from GW strain data. Our emulators allow us to rapidly solve the TOV equations, taking in EOS parameters and outputting the associated tidal deformability of a neutron star in only a few tens of milliseconds. We implement these emulators in PyCBC to directly infer the EOS parameters using the event GW170817, providing posteriors on these parameters informed solely by GWs. We benchmark these runs against analyses performed using the full TOV solver and find that the emulators achieve speed ups of nearly two orders of magnitude, with negligible differences in the recovered posteriors. Additionally, we constrain the slope and curvature of the symmetry energy at the 90% upper credible interval to be $L$ sym ≲ 106 MeV and $K$ sym ≲ 26 MeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Single photon emitters in van der Waals solids for quantum photonics: materials, theory and molecular-scale characterization probes

Strong light–matter interactions in two-dimensional layered materials (2D materials) have attracted the interest of researchers from interdisciplinary fields for more than a decade now. A unique phenomenon in some 2D materials is their large exciton binding energies (BEs), increasing the likelihood of exciton survival at room temperature. It is this large BE that mediates the intense light–matter interactions of many of the 2D materials, particularly in their monolayer limit, where the interplay of excitonic phenomena poses a wealth of opportunities for high-performance optoelectronics and quantum photonics. Within quantum photonics, quantum information science (QIS) is growing rapidly, where photons are a promising platform for information processing due to their low-noise properties, excellent modal control, and long-distance propagation. A central element for QIS applications is a single photon emitter (SPE) source, where an ideal on-demand SPE emits exactly one photon at a time into a given spatiotemporal mode. Recently, 2D materials have shown practical appeal for QIS which is directly driven from their unique layered crystalline structure. This structural attribute of 2D materials facilitates their integration with optical elements more easily than the SPEs in conventional three-dimensional solid state materials, such as diamond and SiC. In this review article, we will discuss recent advances made with 2D materials towards their use as quantum emitters, where the SPE emission properties maybe modulated deterministically. Here, the use of unique scanning tunneling microscopy tools for the in-situ generation and characterization of defects is presented, along with theoretical first-principles frameworks and machine learning approaches to model the structure-property relationship of exciton–defect interactions within the lattice towards SPEs. Given the rapid progress made in this area, the SPEs in 2D materials are emerging as promising sources of nonclassical light emitters, well-poised to advance quantum photonics in the future.

2D layered materials↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effective field theory analysis of 3 He–α scattering data

We treat low-energy 3 He–α elastic scattering in an effective field theory (EFT) that exploits the separation of scales in this reaction. We compute the amplitude up to next-to-next-to-leading order, developing a hierarchy of the effective-range parameters (ERPs) that contribute at various orders. We use the resulting formalism to analyse data for recent measurements at center-of-mass energies of 0.38–3.12 MeV using the scattering of nuclei in inverse kinematics (SONIK) gas target at TRIUMF as well as older data in this energy regime. We employ a likelihood function that incorporates the theoretical uncertainty due to truncation of the EFT and use Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to obtain the resulting posterior probability distribution. We find that the inclusion of a small amount of data on the analysing power A y is crucial to determine the sign of the p-wave splitting in such an analysis. Here, the combination of A y and SONIK data constrains all ERPs up to O(p 4 ) in both s- and p-waves quite well. The asymptotic normalisation coefficients and s-wave scattering length are consistent with a recent EFT analysis of the capture reaction 3 He(α, γ) 7 Be.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impurity gas detection for SNF canisters using probabilistic deep learning and acoustic sensing *

Abstract Monitoring impurity gases in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) canisters is a novel structural health monitoring approach for SNF in dry storage. The SNF canisters are sealed containers that do not facilitate visual access to the inside. Acoustic sensing can be deployed by taking advantage of the pathways unobstructed by internal hardware. Although the ultrasonic time-of-flight measurement can provide valuable information, it is limited in its ability to discern the concentration of only one impurity gas. As such, deep learning algorithms, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), offer a promising solution. In this study, CNN-based probabilistic deep learning models were implemented to detect and quantify multiple impurity gases in helium. An experimental platform was established to simulate canister conditions, and ultrasonic test data were collected. The presence of argon and air in helium at concentrations ranging from 0% to 1.2% at increments of 0.05% was considered. The multi-layer perceptron, decision tree, and logistic regression classifiers achieved high accuracies when distinguishing pure helium from helium with impurities. CNN with dropout layers and CNN using maximum likelihood estimation showed a similar performance, indicating their ability to capture uncertainties. The ensemble CNN model exhibited improved predictions and the ability to balance individual gas concentration by integrating 1D- and 2D-CNN models. These findings contribute probabilistic deep learning solutions for impurity gas detection and analysis within SNF canisters, thus ensuring safe storage and management of SNFs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Density limits as disruption forecasters for spherical tokamaks

Fusion power output from spherical tokamaks would benefit from increased confined plasma density, but there exists a limit on the density before confinement is lost and the plasma current is disrupted. This density limit has long been characterized by a simple, global Greenwald limit proportional to the plasma current and inversely proportional to the cross sectional area of the plasma. It is shown that in the database of discharges from the National Spherical Tokamak Experiment (NSTX) and Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) spherical tokamaks, the likelihood of disruption does increase above the Greenwald limit, and especially in the plasma current rampdown phase. The physics of the density limit has been recently theoretically explored through local criteria. Several of these are tested using the disruption event characterization and forecasting (DECAF TM ) code for their potential effectiveness as disruption warning signals. For a limited set of NSTX discharges, a local island power balance criteria was found to be less reliable, presently, than the Greenwald limit. For this work, an empirical critical edge line density and a boundary turbulent transport limit were both tested for MAST-U, which has an electron density profile measurement with high spatial resolution in the outer part of the plasma. Both were found to have similar dependencies on key plasma parameters. In a limited set of MAST-U discharges that appear to disrupt due to rising density at values under the Greenwald limit, crossing of the boundary turbulent transport limit occurred close to the time of disruption. Finally, these limits were evaluated for their potential use in real-time, and it was found that with the necessary real-time inputs and with refinement through further testing, these limits could be implemented in a real-time disruption forecasting system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Macroscopic trends of linear tearing stability in cylindrical current profiles

Abstract The likelihood of realising tokamak power-plants will be greatly improved by the discovery of high-gain equilibria that resist the formation of small islands and hence avoid the disruptive neoclassical tearing mode. We propose a series of studies to understand how simple tokamak design can leverage aspects of tearing onset physics to maximise passive resistance to island formation. Here we investigate the variation that current profiles can bring about in preventing tearing onset through the cylindrical linear tearing stability parameter Δ ′ . A database of 159148 realistic pilot-plant current profiles was generated with Monte Carlo sampling, and the distribution of Δ ′ values was linked with interpretable profile characteristics. In agreement with prior theoretical and experimental studies, Δ ′ was found to be strongly correlated with the existence and steepness of a local toroidal current well or hill, with the former destabilising and the latter stabilising. In the absence of these two cases, the remaining Δ ′ values were linearly bounded by the toroidal current gradient at the rational surface.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observation of a cross-section enhancement near the production threshold in $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of $t\bar{t}$ production is presented in the invariant-mass region near the pair production threshold, $m_{t\bar{t}} \sim 345$ GeV, in final states with two charged leptons and multiple jets. The measurement is based on $140\,\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ of proton–proton collision data collected at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The data are compared to two models of $t\bar{t}$ production: a baseline model including only perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD) predictions for the hard process at approximate next-to-next-to leading order accuracy in the strong coupling, and an extended model that, in addition, incorporates non-relativistic QCD simulations that also include the formation of colour-singlet quasi-bound-states near the $t\bar{t}$ threshold. The agreement between the data and the models is quantified via a profile-likelihood fit to the reconstructed $m_{t\bar{t}}$ distributions, in bins of two angular observables sensitive to spin-correlations in the $t\bar{t}$ system. An excess of events is observed over the baseline pQCD prediction, with an observed significance over 8 standard deviations. This excess is consistent with the formation of colour-singlet and spin-singlet S-wave quasi-bound $t\bar{t}$ states, as predicted by non-relativistic QCD, and corresponds to an observed cross-section of $9.3^{+1.4}_{-1.3}$ pb.

Large Hadron Collider↗
DOE OSTI2020

A practical and efficient approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation

Bayesian inference is a powerful paradigm for quantum state tomography, treating uncertainty in meaningful and informative ways. Yet the numerical challenges associated with sampling from complex probability distributions hampers Bayesian tomography in practical settings. In this article, we introduce an improved, self-contained approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation. Leveraging advances in machine learning and statistics, our formulation relies on highly efficient preconditioned Crank–Nicolson sampling and a pseudo-likelihood. We theoretically analyze the computational cost, and provide explicit examples of inference for both actual and simulated datasets, illustrating improved performance with respect to existing approaches.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis after Planck

We assess the status of big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) in light of the final Planck data release and other recent developments, and in anticipation of future measurements. Planck data from the recombination era fix the cosmic baryon density to 0.9% precision, and now damping tail measurements determine the helium abundance and effective number of neutrinos with precision approaching that of astronomical and BBN determinations respectively. All three parameters are related by BBN. In addition, new high-redshift measurements give D/H to better precision than theoretical predictions, and new Li/H data reconfirm the lithium problem. We present new 7 Be(n, p) 7 Li rates using new neutron capture measurements; we have also examined the effect of proposed changes in the d(p, γ) 3 He rates. Using these results we perform a series of likelihood analyses. We assess BBN/CMB consistency, with attention to how our results depend on the choice of Planck data, as well as how the results depend on the choice of non-BBN, non-Planck data sets. Most importantly the lithium problem remains, and indeed is more acute given the very tight D/H observational constraints; new neutron capture data reveals systematics that somewhat increases uncertainty and thus slightly reduces but does not essentially change the problem. We confirm that d(p, γ) 3 He theoretical rates brings D/H out of agreement and slightly increases 7 Li; new experimental data are needed at BBN energies. Setting the lithium problem aside, we find the effective number of neutrino species at BBN is Nν = 2.86±0.15. Future CMB Stage-4 measurements promise substantial improvements in BBN parameters: helium abundance determinations will be competitive with the best astronomical determinations, and Neff will approach sensitivities capable of detecting the effects of Standard Model neutrino heating of the primordial plasma.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interacting radiation after Planck and its implications for the Hubble tension

Standard cosmology predicts that prior to matter-radiation equality about 41% of the energy density was in free-streaming neutrinos. In many beyond Standard Model scenarios, however, the amount and free-streaming nature of this component is modified. For example, this occurs in models with new neutrino self-interactions or an additional dark sector with interacting light particles. Here, we consider several extensions of the standard cosmology that include a non-free-streaming radiation component as motivated by such particle physics models and use the final Planck data release to constrain them. This release contains significant improvements in the polarization likelihood which plays an important role in distinguishing free-streaming from interacting radiation species. Fixing the total amount of energy in radiation to match the expectation from standard neutrino decoupling we find that the fraction of free-streaming radiation must be ffs > 0.8 at 95% CL (combining temperature, polarization and baryon acoustic oscillation data). Allowing for arbitrary contributions of free-streaming and interacting radiation, the effective number of new non-free-streaming degrees of freedom is constrained to be Nfld < 0.6 at 95% CL. Cosmologies with additional radiation are also known to ease the discrepancy between the local measurement and CMB inference of the current expansion rate H0. We show that including a non-free-streaming radiation component allows for a larger amount of total energy density in radiation, leading to a mild improvement of the fit to cosmological data compared to previously discussed models with only a free-streaming component.

particle physics - cosmology connection↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: arcminute-resolution maps of 18 000 square degrees of the microwave sky from ACT 2008–2018 data combined with Planck

This paper presents a maximum-likelihood algorithm for combining sky maps with disparate sky coverage, angular resolution and spatially varying anisotropic noise into a single map of the sky. We use this to merge hundreds of individual maps covering the 2008–2018 ACT observing seasons, resulting in by far the deepest ACT maps released so far. We also combine the maps with the full Planck maps, resulting in maps that have the best features of both Planck and ACT: Planck’s nearly white noise on intermediate and large angular scales and ACT’s high-resolution and sensitivity on small angular scales. The maps cover over 18 000 square degrees, nearly half the full sky, at 100, 150 and 220 GHz. Furthermore, they reveal 4 000 optically-confirmed clusters through the Sunyaev Zel’dovich effect (SZ) and 18 500 point source candidates at > 5σ, the largest single collection of SZ clusters and millimeter wave sources to date. The multi-frequency maps provide millimeter images of nearby galaxies and individual Milky Way nebulae, and even clear detections of several nearby stars. Other anticipated uses of these maps include, for example, thermal SZ and kinematic SZ cluster stacking, CMB cluster lensing and galactic dust science. The method itself has negligible bias. However, due to the preliminary nature of some of the component data sets, we caution that these maps should not be used for precision cosmological analysis. The maps are part of ACT DR5, and will be made available on LAMBDA no later than three months after the journal publication of this article, along with an interactive sky atlas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Searches for neutrinos from cosmic-ray interactions in the Sun using seven years of IceCube data

Cosmic-ray interactions with the solar atmosphere are expected to produce particle showers which in turn produce neutrinos from weak decays of mesons. These solar atmospheric neutrinos (SAνs) have never been observed experimentally. A detection would be an important step in understanding cosmic-ray propagation in the inner solar system and the dynamics of solar magnetic fields. SAνs also represent an irreducible background to solar dark matter searches and a detection would allow precise characterization of this background. In this work, we present the first experimental search based on seven years of data collected from May 2010 to May 2017 in the austral winter with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. An unbinned likelihood analysis is performed for events reconstructed within 5 degrees of the center of the Sun. No evidence for a SAν flux is observed. After inclusion of systematic uncertainties, we set a 90% upper limit of 1.02 +0.20 -0.18 ·10 -13 GeV-1cm -2 s -1 at 1 TeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A possible mass distribution of primordial black holes implied by LIGO-Virgo

The LIGO-Virgo Collaboration has so far detected around 90 black holes, some of which have masses larger than what were expected from the collapse of stars. The mass distribution of LIGO-Virgo black holes appears to have a peak at ~ 30 M ⊙ and two tails on the ends. By assuming that they all have a primordial origin, we analyze the GWTC-1 (O1&O2) and GWTC-2 (O3a) datasets by performing maximum likelihood estimation on a broken power law mass function f ( m ), with the result f ∝ m 1.2 for m < 35 M ⊙ and f ∝ m -4 for m > 35 M ⊙ . This appears to behave better than the popular log-normal mass function. Surprisingly, such a simple and unique distribution can be realized in our previously proposed mechanism of PBH formation, where the black holes are formed by vacuum bubbles that nucleate during inflation via quantum tunneling. Moreover, this mass distribution can also provide an explanation to supermassive black holes formed at high redshifts.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of overlapping sources on cosmic shear estimation: Statistical sensitivity and pixel-noise bias

The next generation of dark-energy imaging surveys — so called “Stage-IV” surveys, such as that of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) — will cross a threshold in the number density of detected sources on the sky that requires qualitatively different image analysis and measurement techniques compared to the current generation of Stage-III surveys. In Stage-IV surveys, a significant amount of the cosmologically useful information is due to sources whose images overlap with those of other sources on the sky. Here, we focus on the weak gravitational lensing probe, for which we expect the largest impact since the cosmic shear signal is primarily encoded in the estimated shapes of observed galaxies and thus directly impacted by overlaps. We introduce a framework based on the Fisher formalism to analyze the effect of the overlapping sources (“blending”) on the estimation of cosmic shear. This method gives concrete predictions for the minimum loss of information due to noise and blending for any choice of “deblending” scheme and shape-measurement algorithm. Our studies account for undetected sources but do not address their full effects and biases they may introduce. We use simulated images and predict this impact of blending for three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper-Suprime Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP), and the Rubin LSST. Our methodology successfully estimates the statistical sensitivity to weak lensing for DES and HSC early results. For LSST, we present the expected loss in statistical sensitivity for the ten-year survey due to blending. We find that for approximately 62% of galaxies that are likely to be detected in full-depth LSST images, at least 1% of the flux in their pixels is from overlapping sources. We also find that the statistical correlations between measures of overlapping galaxies and, to a much lesser extent (0.2%) the higher shot noise level due to their presence, decrease the effective number density of galaxies, N eff , by ~ 18%. We calculate an upper limit on N eff of 39.4 galaxies per arcmin 2 in r band. We study the impact of stars on as a function of stellar density and illustrate the diminishing returns of extending the survey into lower Galactic latitudes. We extend the simulation-based Fisher formalism to predict the expected increase in pixel-noise bias due to blending for maximum-likelihood (ML) shape estimators. We find that noise bias depends sensitively on the particular shape estimator and measure of ensemble-average shape that is used, and properties of the galaxy that include redshift-dependent quantities such as size and luminosity. The source code for these studies is available online.[The documented software developed for the catalog-level studies are available in the open-source LSST DESC github repository https://github.com/LSSTDESC/WeakLensingDeblending. The software for analyzing one or two galaxies with user-defined parameters is in the open-source github repository https://github.com/ismael-mendoza/ShapeMeasurementFisherFormalism.]

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Skewing the CMB×LSS: a fast method for bispectrum analysis

Upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing measurements and tomographic galaxy surveys are expected to provide us with high-precision data sets in the coming years, thus paving the way for fruitful cross-correlation analyses. Here, in this paper we study the information content of the weighted skew-spectrum, a nearly-optimal estimator of the angular bispectrum amplitude, as a means to extract non-Gaussian information on both bias and cosmological parameters from the bispectra of galaxies cross-correlated with CMB lensing, while gaining significantly on speed. Our results show that for the combination of the Planck satellite and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), the difference in the constraints on bias and cosmological parameters from the skew-spectrum and the bispectrum is at most 17%. We further compare and find agreement between our theoretical skew-spectra and those estimated from N-body simulations, for which it is important to include gravitational non-linearities beyond perturbation theory and the post-Born effect for CMB lensing. We define an algorithm to apply the skew-spectrum estimator to the data and, as a preliminary step, we use the skew-spectra to constrain bias parameters and the amplitude of shot noise from the simulations through a Markov chain Monte Carlo likelihood analysis, finding that it may be possible to reach percent-level estimates for the linear bias parameter b 1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deducing neutron star equation of state parameters directly from telescope spectra with uncertainty-aware machine learning

Neutron stars provide a unique laboratory for studying matter at extreme pressures and densities. While there is no direct way to explore their interior structure, X-rays emitted from these stars can indirectly provide clues to the equation of state (EOS) of the superdense nuclear matter through the inference of the star's mass and radius. However, inference of EOS directly from a star's X-ray spectra is extremely challenging and is complicated by systematic uncertainties. The current state of the art is to use simulation-based likelihoods in a piece-wise method which relies on certain theoretical assumptions and simplifications about the uncertainties. It first infers the star's mass and radius to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, and from those quantities infer the EOS. Here we demonstrate a series of enhancements to the state of the art, in terms of realistic uncertainty quantification and a path towards circumventing the need for theoretical assumptions to infer physical properties with machine learning. We also demonstrate novel inference of the EOS directly from the high-dimensional spectra of observed stars, avoiding the intermediate mass-radius step. Our network is conditioned on the sources of uncertainty of each star, allowing for natural and complete propagation of uncertainties to the EOS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling neutrino-induced scale-dependent galaxy clustering for photometric galaxy surveys

Abstract The increasing statistical precision of photometric redshift surveys requires improved accuracy of theoretical predictions for large-scale structure observables to obtain unbiased cosmological constraints. In ΛCDM cosmologies, massive neutrinos stream freely at small cosmological scales, suppressing the small-scale power spectrum. In massive neutrino cosmologies, galaxy bias modeling needs to accurately relate the scale-dependent growth of the underlying matter field to observed galaxy clustering statistics. In this work, we implement a computationally efficient approximation of the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias (NISDB). Through simulated likelihood analyses of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DESY3) and Legacy Survey of Space and Time Year 1 (LSSTY1) synthetic data that contain an appreciable NISDB, we examine the impact of linear galaxy bias and neutrino mass modeling choices on cosmological parameter inference. We find model misspecification of the NISDB approximation and neutrino mass models to decrease the constraining power of photometric galaxy surveys and cause parameter biases in the cosmological interpretation of future surveys. We quantify these biases and devise mitigation strategies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗