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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Announcing the Biomedical Data Translator: Initial Public Release

ABSTRACT The growing availability of biomedical data offers vast potential to improve human health, but the complexity and lack of integration of these datasets often limit their utility. To address this, the Biomedical Data Translator Consortium has developed an open‐source knowledge graph–based system—Translator—designed to integrate, harmonize, and make inferences over diverse biomedical data sources. We announce here Translator's initial public release and provide an overview of its architecture, standards, user interface, and core features. Translator employs a scalable, federated, knowledge graph framework for the integration of clinical, genomic, pharmacological, and other biomedical knowledge sources, enabling query retrieval, inference, and hypothesis generation. Translator's user interface is designed to support the exploration of knowledge relationships and the generation of insights, without requiring deep technical expertise and gradually revealing more detailed evidence, provenance, and confidence information, as needed by a given user. To demonstrate Translator's application and impact, we highlight features of the user interface in the context of three real‐world use cases: suggesting potential therapeutics for patients with rare disease; explaining the mechanism of action of a pipeline drug; and screening and validating drug candidates in a model organism. We discuss strengths and limitations of reasoning within a largely federated system and the need for rich concept modeling and deep provenance tracking. Finally, we outline future directions for enhancing Translator's functionality and expanding its data sources. Translator represents a significant step forward in making complex biomedical knowledge more accessible and actionable, aiming to accelerate translational research and improve patient care.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surveying Grassland Islands: the genetics and performance of Appalachian switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) collections

The interior Southeastern United States could contain novel germplasm for the bioenergy crop switchgrass due to its diverse habitats and geographic location between genetic subpopulations (Atlantic, Midwest, and Gulf). Collections from this region could accelerate breeding progress, contribute to conservation efforts, and improve understanding of isolated grasslands in the region. This study located 22 sites in the Midsouth region and obtained 1,521,210 single nucleotide polymorphism markers of 202 individuals through genotype-by-sequencing. Here, individuals were evaluated for flowering time, winter survival and tiller number. Comparison to a national diversity panel revealed that branches of two major subpopulations occur in the region with two levels of polyploidy: Atlantic tetraploids and Midwest octoploids. Two locations contained admixed octoploid individuals with Midwest and Gulf genetics. Field performance of the Midwest octoploids conformed with prior reported performance of the Midwest subpopulation, although three sites contained promising late flowering traits. The Atlantic tetraploids had moderate winter survival, short stature, and anomalously early flowering. Atlantic populations mostly occurred in marginal sites and their morphological and flowering time adaptations may be a resource conservation strategy. Demographic inference of historical effective population size variation in a subset of tetraploid locations indicated a widespread recent decline in effective population size. This pattern is consistent with isolation of these switchgrass communities from larger populations and is further supported by evidence of inbreeding within the populations (F I = 0.18). The populations documented in this study contain novel genetic diversity and adaptations to a range of marginal habitats. Therefore, this study provides a new source of germplasm for future breeding and conservation programs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Agentic framework for programmatic crystal structure generation using a fine-tuned worker–supervisor large language model

Platinum group metals (PGMs) underpin many catalytic technologies but face severe supply constraints, motivating the search for alternative materials and computational methods to accelerate discovery. While atomistic simulation tools such as Pymatgen and ASE have streamlined structure manipulation, they require detailed inputs, limiting accessibility for experimentalists and slowing early-stage exploration. Here, in this study, we present an AI-driven agentic framework that orchestrates worker–supervisor large language models (LLMs). The worker translates natural-language prompts of varying abstraction into valid crystallographic structures using a compact LLM fine-tuned with low-rank adaptation on a curated text–code–CIF dataset, emphasizing energy-efficient training. Benchmarking against the baseline CodeGen-350M-mono model shows that fine-tuning reduces hallucination rates from 100% to as low as 5% and improves structural match accuracy to up to 82% for fully specified inputs. Accuracy declines with decreasing prompt detail but remains nontrivial even when only stoichiometry and space group are provided, underscoring the LLM’s capacity for crystallographic inference. The supervisor Claude LLM evaluates the outputs and triggers iterative refinement through the worker’s built-in structure manipulation capabilities (e.g., supercell scaling, strain, vacancy, and substitution operations). We further demonstrate use cases for technologically relevant catalysts, including IrO 2 , pyrochlore Pb 2 Ir 2 O 7 , Ni 2 FeO 4 , and Ni 3 Mo, where the framework generates physically consistent structures that can be refined via geometry optimization. This work introduces a low-energy, language-driven pathway for integrating human and machine intelligence in materials design, paving the way for AI-assisted synthesis planning and high-throughput screening of complex oxides.

AI agent↗
NASA NTRS2022

Ambiguous Stability of Glaciers at Bed Peaks

Increasing ice flux from glaciers retreating over deepening (retrograde) bed topography has been implicated in the recent acceleration of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We show in observations that some glaciers have remained at peaks in bed topography without retreating despite enduring significant changes in climate. Observations also indicate that some glaciers which persist at bed peaks undergo sudden retreat years or decades after the onset of local ocean or atmospheric warming. Using model simulations, we show that persistence of a glacier at a bed peak is caused by ice slowing as it flows up a reverse-sloping bed to the peak. Persistence at bed peaks may lead to two very different future behaviors for a glacier: one where it persists at a bed peak indefinitely, and another where it retreats from the bed peak after potentially long delays following climate forcing. However, it is nearly impossible to distinguish which of these two future behaviors will occur from current observations. We conclude that inferring glacier stability from observations of persistence obscures our true commitment to future sea-level rise under climate change. We recommend that further research is needed on seemingly stable glaciers to determine their likely future.

ice dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

A physics-constrained neural ordinary differential equations approach for robust learning of stiff chemical kinetics

The high computational cost associated with solving for detailed chemistry poses a significant challenge for predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of turbulent reacting flows. While deep learning techniques have been explored to develop faster surrogate models, they often fail to integrate reliably with CFD solvers. This instability arises because traditional deep learning approaches optimize for training error without ensuring compatibility with ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers, resulting in accumulation of errors over time. Recently, neuralODE (NODE) based approaches have been shown to be a promising technique to emulate and accelerate detailed chemistry computations. Here, in the present work, we extend this NODE framework for stiff chemical kinetics by incorporating mass conservation constraints directly into the loss function during training. This ensures that the total mass as well as the individual elemental species masses are conserved in an a-posteriori manner. Proof-of-concept studies are performed with the novel physics-constrained NODE (PC-NODE) approach for homogeneous autoignition of hydrogen-air mixture over a range of composition and thermodynamic conditions. It is demonstrated that the PC-NODE framework not only improves the physical consistency of the resulting data-driven model with respect to mass conservation criteria, but also improves training efficiency. PC-NODE is shown to achieve 2–100× speedup relative to the hydrogen-air detailed chemical mechanism depending on the type of the ODE solver (implicit or explicit) used during autoregressive inference tests. Lastly, a-posteriori studies are performed wherein the trained PC-NODE model is coupled with a CFD solver. It is shown that higher accuracy is achieved with PC-NODE relative to the purely data-driven NODE approach. Moreover, PC-NODE also exhibits robustness and generalizability to unseen initial conditions from within (interpolative capability) as well as outside (extrapolative capability) the training regime.

computational combustion↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differentiating multi-MeV, multi-ion spectra with CR-39 solid-state nuclear track detectors

The development of high intensity petawatt lasers has created new possibilities for ion acceleration and nuclear fusion using solid targets. In such laser-matter interaction, multiple ion species are accelerated with broad spectra up to hundreds of MeV. To measure ion yields and for species identification, CR-39 solid-state nuclear track detectors are frequently used. However, these detectors are limited in their applicability for multi-ion spectra differentiation as standard image recognition algorithms can lead to a misinterpretation of data, there is no unique relation between track diameter and particle energy, and there are overlapping pit diameter relationships for multiple particle species. In this report, we address these issues by first developing an algorithm to overcome user bias during image processing. Second, we use calibration of the detector response for protons, carbon and helium ions (alpha particles) from 0.1 to above 10 MeV and measurements of statistical energy loss fluctuations in a forward-fitting procedure utilizing multiple, differently filtered CR-39, altogether enabling high-sensitivity, multi-species particle spectroscopy. To validate this capability, we show that inferred CR-39 spectra match Thomson parabola ion spectrometer data from the same experiment. Filtered CR-39 spectrometers were used to detect, within a background of ~ 2 × 10 11 sr -1 J -1 protons and carbons, (1.3 ± 0.7) × 10 8 sr -1 J -1 alpha particles from laser-driven proton-boron fusion reactions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast, differentiable, and extensible big bang nucleosynthesis package

Here, we introduce light isotope nucleosynthesis with JAX (LINX), a new differentiable public big bang nucleosynthesis code designed for fast parameter estimation. By leveraging JAX, LINX achieves both speed and differentiability, enabling the use of Bayesian inference, including gradient-based methods. We discuss the formalism used in LINX for rapid primordial elemental abundance predictions and give examples of how LINX can be used. When combined with differentiable cosmic microwave background power spectrum emulators, LINX can be used for joint cosmic microwave background and big bang nucleosynthesis analyses without requiring extensive computational resources, including on personal hardware.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Artificial Intelligence for Autonomous Molecular Design: A Perspective

Domain-aware artificial intelligence has been increasingly adopted in recent years to expedite molecular design in various applications, including drug design and discovery. Recent advances in areas such as physics-informed machine learning and reasoning, software engineering, high-end hardware development, and computing infrastructures are providing opportunities to build scalable and explainable AI molecular discovery systems. This could improve a design hypothesis through feedback analysis, data integration that can provide a basis for the introduction of end-to-end automation for compound discovery and optimization, and enable more intelligent searches of chemical space. Several state-of-the-art ML architectures are predominantly and independently used for predicting the properties of small molecules, their high throughput synthesis, and screening, iteratively identifying and optimizing lead therapeutic candidates. However, such deep learning and ML approaches also raise considerable conceptual, technical, scalability, and end-to-end error quantification challenges, as well as skepticism about the current AI hype to build automated tools. To this end, synergistically and intelligently using these individual components along with robust quantum physics-based molecular representation and data generation tools in a closed-loop holds enormous promise for accelerated therapeutic design to critically analyze the opportunities and challenges for their more widespread application. This article aims to identify the most recent technology and breakthrough achieved by each of the components and discusses how such autonomous AI and ML workflows can be integrated to radically accelerate the protein target or disease model-based probe design that can be iteratively validated experimentally. Taken together, this could significantly reduce the timeline for end-to-end therapeutic discovery and optimization upon the arrival of any novel zoonotic transmission event. Our article serves as a guide for medicinal, computational chemistry and biology, analytical chemistry, and the ML community to practice autonomous molecular design in precision medicine and drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seismic Waveform Inversion Capability on Resource-Constrained Edge Devices

Seismic full wave inversion (FWI) is a widely used non-linear seismic imaging method used to reconstruct subsurface velocity images, however it is time consuming, has high computational cost and depend heavily on human interaction. Recently, deep learning has accelerated it’s use in several data-driven techniques, however most deep learning techniques suffer from overfitting and stability issues. In this work, we propose an edge computing-based data-driven inversion technique based on supervised deep convolutional neural network to accurately reconstruct the subsurface velocities. Deep learning based data-driven technique depends mostly on bulk data training. In this work, we train our deep convolutional neural network (DCN) (UNet and InversionNet) on the raw seismic data and their corresponding velocity models during the training phase to learn the non-linear mapping between the seismic data and velocity models. The trained network is then used to estimate the velocity models from new input seismic data during the prediction phase. The prediction phase is performed on a resource-constrained edge device such as Raspberry Pi. Raspberry Pi provides real-time and on-device computational power to execute the inference process. In addition, we demonstrate robustness of our models to perform inversion in the presence on noise by performing both noise-aware and no-noise training and feeding the resulting trained models with noise at different signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio values. We make great efforts to achieve very feasible inference times on the Raspberry Pi for both models. Specifically, the inference times per prediction for UNet and InversionNet models on Raspberry Pi were 22 and 4 s respectively whilst inference times for both models on the GPU were 2 and 18 s which are very comparable. Finally, we have designed a user-friendly interactive graphical user interface (GUI) to automate the model execution and inversion process on the Raspberry Pi.

Manu, Daniel (ORCID:0000000154982677)↗
NASA NTRS1985

Does the geoid drift west?

In 1970 Hide and Malin noted a correlation of about 0.8 between the geoid and the geomagnetic potential at the Earth's surface when the latter is rotated eastward in longitude by about 160 degrees and the spherical harmonic expansions of both functions are truncated at degree 4. From a century of magnetic observatory data, Hide and Malin inferred an average magnetic westward drift rate of about 0.27 degrees/year. They attributed the magnetic-gravitational correlation to a core event at about 1350 A.D. which impressed the mantle's gravity pattern at long wavelengths onto the core motion and the resulting magnetic field. The impressed pattern was then carried westward 160 degrees by the nsuing magnetic westward drift. An alternative possibility is some sort of steady physical coupling between the magnetic and gravitational fields (perhaps migration of Hide's bumps on the core-mantle interface). This model predicts that the geoid will drift west at the magnetic rate. On a rigid earth, the resulting changes in sea level would be easily observed, but they could be masked by adjustment of the mantle if it has a shell with viscosity considerably less than 10 to the 21 poise. However, steady westward drift of the geoid also predicts secular changes in g, the local acceleration of gravity, at land stations. These changes are now ruled out by recent independent high-accuracy absolute measurements of g made by several workers at various locations in the Northern Hemisphere.

Backus, G. E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Cosmological Lyman-𝛼 Forest at the Field Level

The distribution of absorption lines in the spectra of distant quasars, called the Lyman-𝛼 (Ly-𝛼) forest, is a unique probe of cosmology and the intergalactic medium at high redshifts and small scales. The statistical power of ongoing redshift surveys demands precise theoretical tools to model the Ly-𝛼 forest. We address this challenge by developing an analytic, perturbative forward model to predict the Ly-𝛼 forest at the field level for a given set of cosmological initial conditions. Our model shows a remarkable performance when compared with the Sherwood hydrodynamic simulations: it reproduces the Ly-𝛼 forest flux power spectrum, its cross-correlation with dark matter halos, and the one-point probability distribution function of both fields at the percent level down to scales of a few Mpc. Our work provides crucial tools that bridge analytic modeling on large scales with simulations on small scales, enabling field-level inference from Ly-𝛼 forest data and simulation-based priors for cosmological analyses. Furthermore, this is especially timely for realizing the full scientific potential of the Ly-𝛼 forest measurements by the dark energy spectroscopic instrument.

Cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2025

SZ–X-Ray Surface Brightness Fluctuations in the SPT-XMM Clusters

The hot plasma in galaxy clusters, the intracluster medium, is expected to be shaped by subsonic turbulent motions, which are key for heating, cooling, and transport mechanisms. The turbulent motions contribute to the nonthermal pressure, which, if not accounted for, consequently imparts a hydrostatic mass bias. Accessing information about turbulent motions is thus of major astrophysical and cosmological interest. Characteristics of turbulent motions can be indirectly accessed through surface brightness fluctuations. This study expands on our pilot investigations of surface brightness fluctuations in the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich and in X-ray data by examining, for the first time, a large sample of 60 clusters using both SPT-SZ and XMM-Newton data and spans the redshift range 0.2 < z < 1.5, thus constraining the respective pressure and density fluctuations within 0.6 R $_{500}$. We deem density fluctuations to be of sufficient quality for 32 clusters, finding mild correlations between the peak of the amplitude spectra of density fluctuations and various dynamical parameters. We infer turbulent velocities from density fluctuations with an average Mach number $\mathcal{M}$ 3D = 0.52 ± 0.14, in agreement with numerical simulations. For clusters with inferred turbulent Mach numbers from fluctuations in both pressure, $\mathcal{M}$ P , and density, $\mathcal{M}$ ρ , we find broad agreement between $\mathcal{M}$ P and $\mathcal{M}$ ρ . Our results suggest either a bimodal or a skewed unimodal Mach number distribution, with the majority of clusters being turbulence-dominated (subsonic) while the remainder are shock-dominated (supersonic).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diffusion model approach to simulating electron-proton scattering events

Generative artificial intelligence is a fast-growing area of research offering various avenues for exploration in high-energy nuclear physics. In this work, we explore the use of generative models for simulating electron-proton collisions relevant to experiments like the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility and the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). These experiments play a critical role in advancing our understanding of nucleons and nuclei in terms of quark and gluon degrees of freedom. The use of generative models for simulating collider events faces several challenges such as the sparsity of the data, the presence of global or eventwide constraints, and steeply falling particle distributions. In this work, we focus on the implementation of diffusion models for the simulation of electron-proton scattering events at EIC energies. Our results demonstrate that diffusion models can reproduce relevant observables such as momentum distributions and correlations of particles, momentum sum rules, and the leading electron kinematics, all of which are of particular interest in electron-proton collisions. Although the sampling process is relatively slow compared to other machine-learning architectures, we find diffusion models can generate high-quality samples. We foresee various applications of our work including inference for nuclear structure, interpretable generative machine learning, and searches of physics beyond the Standard Model. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

C 13 ( n , 2 n γ ) C 12 γ -ray production in the 14–16 MeV incident neutron energy range

We report γ-ray emission from 12 C and 13 C samples irradiated with deuterium-tritium fusion neutrons was experimentally measured at the Omega Laser Facility and at the Ohio University Edwards Accelerator Laboratory. The intent of these measurements was to determine the feasibility of using 13 C-based plastic ablators with embedded 12 C layers for “dark mix” diagnosis of inertial confinement fusion implosions. Spectrally resolved measurements at Ohio University identified significant 4.44-MeV γ-ray emission from the 13 C(n, 2nγ) 12 C-L1 reaction channel. The recorded 4.44-MeV 13 C signal was compared against emission from an identically irradiated 12 C target with known 12 C(n, n'γ) 12 C-L1 cross section, which resulted in an average 13 C(n, 2nγ) 12 C-L1 cross section of 117 ± 17 mb over the incident neutron energy distribution range from 14.4 to 15.8 MeV. Integrated 13C γ -ray signals above 2.9 MeV recorded with the Gas Cherenkov Detector at Omega exceeded MCNP6.1 predictions by a factor of 3. The additional signal was attributed to 4.44-MeV γs resulting in an inferred 13 C(n, 2nγ) 12 C-L1 cross section of 95 ± 11 mb at 14.1-MeV average incident neutron energy. As a result, the 13 C-based “dark mix” diagnostic concept was deemed infeasible.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗
NASA NTRS2011

High Power Flex-Propellant Arcjet Performance

A MW-class electrothermal arcjet based on a water-cooled, wall-stabilized, constricted arc discharge configuration was subjected to extensive performance testing using hydrogen and simulated ammonia propellants with the deliberate aim of advancing technology readiness level for potential space propulsion applications. The breadboard design incorporates alternating conductor/insulator wafers to form a discharge barrel enclosure with a 2.5-cm internal bore diameter and an overall length of approximately 1 meter. Swirling propellant flow is introduced into the barrel, and a DC arc discharge mode is established between a backplate tungsten cathode button and a downstream ringanode/ spin-coil assembly. The arc-heated propellant then enters a short mixing plenum and is accelerated through a converging-diverging graphite nozzle. This innovative design configuration differs substantially from conventional arcjet thrusters, in which the throat functions as constrictor and the expansion nozzle serves as the anode, and permits the attainment of an equilibrium sonic throat (EST) condition. During the test program, applied electrical input power was varied between 0.5-1 MW with hydrogen and simulated ammonia flow rates in the range of 4-12 g/s and 15-35 g/s, respectively. The ranges of investigated specific input energy therefore fell between 50-250 MJ/kg for hydrogen and 10-60 MJ/kg for ammonia. In both cases, observed arc efficiencies were between 40-60 percent as determined via a simple heat balance method based on electrical input power and coolant water calorimeter measurements. These experimental results were found to be in excellent agreement with theoretical chemical equilibrium predictions, thereby validating the EST assumption and enabling the utilization of standard TDK nozzle expansion analyses to reliably infer baseline thruster performance characteristics. Inferred specific impulse performance accounting for recombination kinetics during the expansion process implied nearly frozen flow in the nozzle and yielded performance ranges of 800-1100 sec for hydrogen and 400-600 sec for ammonia. Inferred thrust-to-power ratios were in the range of 30-10 lbf/MWe for hydrogen and 60-20 lbf/MWe for ammonia. Successful completion of this test series represents a fundamental milestone in the progression of high power arcjet technology, and it is hoped that the results may serve as a reliable touchstone for the future development of MW-class regeneratively-cooled flex-propellant plasma rockets.

Litchford, Ron J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Striped Jets in Post–Neutron Star Merger Systems

Abstract Models invoking magnetic reconnection as the particle acceleration mechanism within relativistic jets often adopt a gradual energy dissipation profile within the jet. However, such a profile has yet to be reproduced in first-principles simulations. Here we perform a suite of 3D general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of post–neutron star merger disks with an initially purely toroidal magnetic field. We explore the variations in both the microphysics (e.g., nuclear recombination, neutrino emission) and system parameters (e.g, disk mass). In all of our simulations, we find the formation of magnetically striped jets. The stripes result from the reversals in the poloidal magnetic flux polarity generated in the accretion disk. The simulations display large variations in the distributions of stripe duration, τ , and power, 〈 P Φ 〉. We find that more massive disks produce more powerful stripes, the most powerful of which reaches 〈 P Φ 〉 ∼ 10 49 erg s −1 at τ ∼ 20 ms. The power and variability that result from the magnetic reconnection of the stripes agree with those inferred in short-duration gamma-ray bursts. We find that the dissipation profile of the cumulative energy is roughly a power law in both radial distance, z , and τ , with a slope in the range of ∼1.7–3; more massive disks display larger slopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Union through UNITY: Cosmology with 2000 SNe Using a Unified Bayesian Framework

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) were instrumental in establishing the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion. By virtue of their combination of distance reach, precision, and prevalence, they continue to provide key cosmological constraints, complementing other cosmological probes. Individual SN surveys cover only over about a factor of 2 in redshift, so compilations of multiple SN data sets are strongly beneficial. We assemble an up-to-date “Union” compilation of 2087 cosmologically useful SNe Ia from 24 data sets (“Union3”). We take care to put all SNe on the same distance scale and update the light-curve fitting with SALT3 to use the full rest-frame optical. Over the next few years, the number of cosmologically useful SNe Ia will increase by more than a factor of 10, and keeping systematic uncertainties subdominant will be more challenging than ever. We discuss the importance of treating outliers, selection effects, light-curve shape/color populations/standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. We present an updated Bayesian framework, called UNITY1.5 (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to model selection effects, standardization, and systematic uncertainties compared to earlier analyses. As an analysis byproduct, we also recover the posterior of the SN-only peculiar-velocity field, although we do not interpret it in this work. We compute updated cosmological constraints with Union3 and UNITY1.5, finding weak 1.7σ–2.6σ tension with flat cold dark matter and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (w0 > − 1, wa < 0). We release our SN distances, light-curve fits, and UNITY1.5 framework to the community.

Rubin, David↗