Electric sector impacts of renewable policy coordination: A multi-model study of the North American energy system
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Bistline, John E. T.↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Model Advancements to Enable Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Streamflow Temperature
With support from the Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed new tools that incorporate cutting-edge climate and hydrological science capabilities to assess the potential long-term impacts of future climate conditions on unregulated streamflow and water temperature within watershed-river-reservoir systems. The objectives of this project were achieved by enhancing key hydrologic and hydrodynamic models and transferring them to a high-performance computing environment to provide a high-spatiotemporal resolution, multi-scale modeling framework. The new modeling framework has the potential to quantify risks related climate change impacts on runoff, unregulated streamflow, and water temperature. Initial development and demonstration of the modeling framework was conducted under historical and future climate conditions in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest and the Connecticut River Basin in New England.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Floating solar panels on reservoirs impact phytoplankton populations: A modelling experiment
Floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) deployments are increasing globally as the switch to renewable energy intensifies, representing a considerable water surface transformation. FPV installations can potentially impact aquatic ecosystem function, either positively or negatively. However, these impacts are poorly resolved given the challenges of collecting empirical data for field or modelling experiments. In particular, there is limited evidence on the response of phytoplankton to changes in water body thermal dynamics and light climate with FPV. Given the importance of understanding phytoplankton biomass and species composition for managing ecosystem services, we use an uncertainty estimation approach to simulate the effect of FPV coverage and array siting location on a UK reservoir. FPV coverage was modified in 10% increments from a baseline with 0% coverage to 100% coverage for three different FPV array siting locations based on reservoir circulation patterns. Results showed that FPV coverage significantly impacted thermal properties, resulting in highly variable impacts on phytoplankton biomass and species composition. The impacts on phytoplankton were often dependent on array siting location as well as surface coverage. Changes to phytoplankton species composition were offset by the decrease in phytoplankton biomass associated with increasing FPV coverage. We identified that similar phytoplankton biomass reductions could be achieved with less FPV coverage by deploying the FPV array on the water body's faster-flowing area than the central or slower flowing areas. The difference in response dependent on siting location could be used to tailor phytoplankton management in water bodies. Simulation of water body-FPV interactions efficiently using an uncertainty approach is an essential tool to rapidly develop understanding and ultimately inform FPV developers and water body managers looking to minimise negative impacts and maximise co-benefits.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Modeling ablator grain structure impacts in ICF implosions
High-density carbon is a leading ablator material for inertial confinement fusion (ICF). This and some other ablator materials have grain structure which is believed to introduce very small-scale (~nm) density inhomogeneity. In principle, such inhomogeneity can affect key ICF metrics like fuel compression and yield, by, for example, acting as a seed for instabilities and inducing mix between ablator and fuel. However, assessments of such effects are uncertain due to the difficulty of modeling this small-scale structure in ICF simulations, typically requiring reduced-resolution modeling that scales these features. We present a grain model and show both the impact of de-resolving grains and the complex mixing dynamics such structures can induce. We find that different methods for de-resolving grains can yield both different total deposition of kinetic energy perturbations and different fuel–ablator mixing. We then show a simple-to-implement approach for approximately conserving the deposition of perturbed kinetic energy and demonstrate that, for the present grain model and test cases, this approach yields a reasonably matched time history of mix width between less and more resolved grain models. The simulations here also demonstrate the complex interaction history between grain-induced mixing and instability around the fuel–ablator interface, showing, for example, that the grain-induced perturbations typically trigger instability of conduction-driven density gradients in the DT fuel, enhancing mix penetration early in the acceleration of the shell. Furthermore simulating both microscale and nanoscale grains, we find initial evidence for larger mixing in the microscale case of the present model, despite smaller deposited kinetic energy perturbation.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Langmuir adsorption model to assess the impact of silane coupling on nano-dispersion of silica in SBR
Surface active agents are often used to improve dispersion of nanoparticles. Quantitative correlation between these surface-active molecules and nanoscale dispersion is absent from the literature partly because a quantitative measure of nanoscale dispersion does not exist. Recently, we have developed the Virial-van der Waals method to quantify dispersion in nanocomposites using virial coefficients. In this paper, the Langmuir adsorption model is used to quantify the influence of surface-active agents on nano-scale dispersion in terms of the effective second virial coefficient B 2 *. The impact of silane coupling agent on the nano-dispersion and silica aggregate structure in precipitated silica/SBR nanocomposites is demonstrated. It is shown that the higher viscosity SBR matrix led to a greater silica aggregate structural breakup, while lower viscosity matrix improved surface silanization. The isomeric content of the SBR, which impacts the dielectric behavior, impacted whether the system could be modeled through a mean-field or specific interactions. We earlier showed that larger aggregates improve dispersion, and this is reaffirmed in these results. After account is made for aggregate size, nano-scale dispersion improves with the addition of silane coupling agent. The behavior is well modeled using Langmuir monolayer adsorption.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
EVI-Rental: A Scalable Model to Quantify the Impact of Rental Car Electrification
This fact sheet describes the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - Rental Car (EVI-Rental) tool, a flexible and comprehensive simulation tool that addresses key questions about the charging demand, infrastructure needs, and business impacts of adding growing numbers of electric vehicles (EVs) to rental fleets. To validate the EVI-Rental model, the Athena research team conducted a case study at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) to understand the impact of state-of-charge requirements, different charger types and charging schedules, solar power generation, and behind-the-meter storage on a fully electrified rental car fleet.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Modeling and Validation of Bird Strike Impacts on Offshore Turbine Blades
Demonstrates modeling results for modal analysis and transient impact analysis for wind turbine blades
Anderson, Evan Mark↗
Strategies for Co-Processing in Refineries: Techno-Economic & Refinery Impact Analysis
Refinery LP model for refinery impact analysis, co-processing at mile hydro-cracking unit, co-processing at fluidized catalytic cracking unit and discussions and future plans.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Climate change impacts on the energy system: a model comparison
Increasing renewable energy use is an essential strategy for mitigating climate change. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of renewable energy to climatic conditions means that the energy system’s vulnerability to climate change can also become larger. In this research, we used two integrated assessment models and data from four climate models to analyse climate change impacts on primary energy use at a global and regional scale under a low-level (RCP2.6) and a medium-level (RCP6.0) climate change scenario. The impacts are analysed on the energy system focusing on four renewable sources (wind, solar, hydropower, and biomass). Globally, small climate impacts on renewable primary energy use are found in both models (5% for RCP2.6 and 6% for RCP6.0). These impacts lead to a decrease in the use of fossil sources for most regions, especially for North America and Europe under the RCP60 scenario. Overall, IMAGE and GCAM provide a similar signal impact response for most regions. E.g. in Asia (excluding China and India), climate change induces an increase in wind and hydropower use under the RCP6.0 scenarios; however, for India, a decrease in solar energy use can be expected under both scenarios and models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Model Calculations of the Impact of NO(x) from Air Traffic, Lightning and Surface Emissions, Compared with Measurements
The impact of NO(x) from aircraft emissions, lightning and surface contributions on atmospheric nitrogen oxides and ozone has been investigated with the three-dimensional global chemistry transport model TM3 by partitioning the nitrogen oxides and ozone according to source category. The results have been compared with POLINAT II and SONEX airborne measurements in the North Atlantic flight corridor in 1997. Various cases have been investigated: measurements during a stagnant anti-cyclone and an almost cut-off low, both with expected high aircraft contributions, a southward bound flight with an expected strong flight corridor gradient and lightning contributions in the South, and a transatlantic flight with expected boundary layer pollution near the U.S. coast. The agreement between modeled results and measurements is reasonably good for NO and ozone. Also, the calculated impact of the three defined sources were consistent with the estimated exposure of the sampled air to these sources, obtained by specialized back-trajectory model products.
Meijer, E. W.↗
New meteoroid model predictions for directional impacts on LDEF
An extensive body of data, from meteors, zodiacal light, spacecraft-borne impact detectors (Helios, Pioneer, Galileo, Ulysses), and other sources, forms the basis of a new numerical model for the distributions of interplanetary meteoroids. For each of the five populations in this model it is possible to evaluate meteoroid concentration and flux for oriented surfaces or detectors having arbitrary position and velocity in interplanetary space. For a spacecraft in geocentric orbit the effects of gravitational focussing and shielding by the Earth have been newly derived with full attention to the directionality of the particles, both on approach (i.e., relative to a massless Earth) and at the target. This modeling approach was exercised to provide an estimate of meteoroid fluence for each of several oriented surfaces on LDEF.
Divine, Neil↗
Watershed and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation and Seagrasses in Mobile Bay
There is a continued need to understand how human activities along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are impacting the natural ecosystems. The gulf coast is experiencing rapid population growth and associated land cover/land use change. Mobile Bay, AL is a designated pilot region of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and is the focus area of many current NASA and NOAA studies, for example. This is a critical region, both ecologically and economically to the entire United States because it has the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the continental USA, is a vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreational important fisheries, and houses a working waterfront and port that is expanding. Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed for Mobile Bay to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on the aquatic ecosystem. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use Scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on observed trends. All land use scenarios were developed to a common land classification system developed by merging the 1992 and 2001 National Land Cover Data (NLCD). The LSPC model output provides changes in flow, temperature, sediments and general water quality for 22 discharge points into the Bay. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout the Bay s aquatic ecosystems. The models were calibrated using in-situ data collected at sampling stations in and around Mobile bay. This phase of the project has focused on sediment modeling because of its significant influence on light attenuation which is a critical factor in the health of submerged aquatic vegetation. The impact of land use change on sediment concentrations was evaluated by analyzing the LSPC and EFDC sediment simulations for the four land use scenarios. Such analysis was also performed for storm and non-storm periods. In- situ data of total suspended sediments (TSS) and light attenuation were used to develop a regression model to estimate light attenuation from TSS. This regression model was used to derive marine light attenuation estimates throughout Mobile bay using the EFDC TSS outputs. The changes in sediment concentrations and associated impact on light attenuation in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on seagreasses and Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) habitat. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of sediments due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.
Estes, Maurice G.↗
Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present
As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.
Lapenta, William M.↗
A Model Study of the Impact of Source Gas Changes on the Stratosphere for 1850-2100
The long term stratospheric impacts due to emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are investigated using an updated version of the Goddard two-dimensional (2D) model. Perturbation simulations with the ODSs, CO2, CH4, and N2O varied individually are performed to isolate the relative roles of these gases in driving stratospheric changes over the 1850-2100 time period. We also show comparisons with observations and the God- 40 dard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model simulations for the time period 1970-2100 to illustrate that the 2D model captures the basic processes responsible for longterm stratospheric change. The 2D simulations indicate that prior to 1940, the 45 ozone increases due to CO2 and CH4 loading outpace the ozone losses due to increasing N2O and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) emissions, so that ozone reaches a broad maximum during the 1920s-1930s. This preceeds the significant ozone depletion during approx. 1960-2050 driven by the ODS loading. During the latter half of the 21st century as ODS emissions diminish, CO2, N2O, and CH4 loading will all have significant impacts on global total ozone based on the IPCC AIB (medium) scenario, with CO2 having the largest individual effect. Sensitivity tests illustrate that due to the strong chemical interaction between methane and chlorine, the CH4 impact on total ozone becomes significantly more positive with larger ODS loading. The model simulations also show that changes in stratospheric temperature, Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), and age of air during 1850-2100 are controlled mainly by the CO2 and ODS loading. The simulated acceleration of the BDC causes the age of air to decrease by approx. 1 year from 1860-2100. The corresponding photochemical lifetimes of N2O, CFCl3, CF2Cl2, and CCl4 decrease by 11-13% during 1960-2100 due to the acceleration of the BDC, with much smaller lifetime changes 4%) caused by changes in the photochemical loss rates.
Fleming, E. L.↗
Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess the Impacts of Urbanization on the Continental US Surface Climate
Urbanization is one of the most important and long lasting forms of land transformation. Urbanization affects the surface climate in different ways: (1) by reduction of the vegetation fraction causing subsequent reduction in photosynthesis and plant s water transpiration, (2) by alternation of surface runoff and infiltration and their impacts on soil moisture and the water table, (3) by change in the surface albedo and surface energy partitioning, and (4) by transformation of the surface roughness length and modification of surface fluxes. Land cover and land use change maps including urban areas have been developed and will be used in a suite of land surface models of different complexity to assess the impacts of urbanization on the continental US surface climate. These maps and datasets based on a full range of available satellite data and ground observations will be used to characterize distant-past (pre-urban), recent-past (2001), present (2010), and near future (2020) land cover and land use changes. The main objective of the project is to assess the impacts of these land transformation on past, current and near-future climate and the potential feedbacks from these changes on the atmospheric, hydrologic, biological, and socio-economic properties beyond the immediate metropolitan regions of cities and their near suburbs. The WRF modeling system will be used to explore the nature and the magnitude of the two-way interactions between urban lands and the atmosphere and assess the overall regional dynamic effect of urban expansion on the northeastern US weather and climate
Bounoua, L.↗
SMOS Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System: Impact on LSM Initialization and NWP Forecasts
Land surface models are important components of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, partitioning incoming energy into latent and sensitive heat fluxes that affect boundary layer growth and destabilization. During warm-season months, diurnal heating and convective initiation depend strongly on evapotranspiration and available boundary layer moisture, which are substantially affected by soil moisture content. Therefore, to properly simulate warm-season processes in NWP models, an accurate initialization of the land surface state is important for accurately depicting the exchange of heat and moisture between the surface and boundary layer. In this study, soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite radiometer are assimilated into the Noah Land Surface Model via an Ensemble Kalman Filter embedded within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) software framework. The output from LIS-Noah is subsequently used to initialize runs of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model. The impact of assimilating SMOS retrievals is assessed by initializing the WRF model with LIS-Noah output obtained with and without SMOS data assimilation. The southeastern United States is used as the domain for a preliminary case study. During the summer months, there is extensive irrigation in the lower Mississippi Valley for rice and other crops. The irrigation is not represented in the meteorological forcing used to drive the LIS-Noah integration, but the irrigated areas show up clearly in the SMOS soil moisture retrievals, resulting in a case with a large difference in initial soil moisture conditions. The impact of SMOS data assimilation on both Noah soil moisture fields and on short-term (0-48 hour) WRF weather forecasts will be presented.
Blankenship, Clay↗
New meteoroid model predictions for directional impacts on LDEF
An extensive body of data, from meteors, zodiacal light, spacecraft-borne impact detectors (helios, Pioneer, Galileo, and Ulysses), and other sources, forms the basis of a new numerical model for the distributions of interplanetary meteoroids. For each of the five populations in this model it is possible to evaluate meteoroid concentration and flux for oriented surfaces or detectors having arbitrary position and velocity in interplanetary space (Divine, 1992, in preparation). For a spacecraft in geocentric orbit, the effects of gravitational focusing and shielding by the Earth were derived with full attention to the directionality of the particles, both on approach (i.e., relative to a massless Earth) and at the target. This modeling approach was exercised to provide an estimate of meteoroid fluence for each of several oriented surfaces on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF).
Divine, Neil↗
Exploring density and strength variations in asteroid 16 Psyche’s composition with 3D hydrocode modeling of its deepest impact structure
Asteroid 16 Psyche is the largest metallic Main Belt Asteroid and is the subject of a forthcoming NASA mission. The composition of Psyche is still unknown and subject of recent debate. In particular, how much porosity is within Psyche, along with how much of Psyche consists of non-metallic versus metallic materials, are central questions to the issue of Psyche’s composition. If Psyche is indeed predominantly composed of metallic materials, it would need to have considerable porosity (~ 30%–50%) for a composition consistent with its expected bulk density (~ 3.7–4.1 g/cm). In this work, we vary the density and strength of Psyche by including uniform and layered fields of pseudo-microporosity, in addition to investigating the presence of macroscopic voids, i.e., spaces larger than the size of the simulation’s mesh cells, in rubble-pile configurations. Further, all configurations result in bulk densities within the uncertainties of measured values, however the strength of Psyche and the distribution of pseudo-pores are varied. Through 3D computational models of Psyche’s deepest impact structure, we show that Psyche’s composition is unlikely to contain only pseudo-microporosity. Rather, rubble pile structures, which include macroscopic voids, are shown to match the crater’s measured aspect ratio better than simulations of structures that included only pseudo-microporosity.
3D↗