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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global Earth system model

Abstract. Wildfire is an important ecosystem process, influencing land biogeophysical and biogeochemical dynamics and atmospheric composition. Fire-driven loss of vegetation cover, for example, directly modifies the surface energy budget as a consequence of changing albedo, surface roughness, and partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. Carbon dioxide and methane emitted by fires contribute to a positive atmospheric forcing, whereas emissions of carbonaceous aerosols may contribute to surface cooling. Process-based modeling of wildfires in Earth system land models is challenging due to limited understanding of human, climate, and ecosystem controls on fire counts, fire size, and burned area. Integration of mechanistic wildfire models within Earth system models requires careful parameter calibration, which is computationally expensive and subject to equifinality. To explore alternative approaches, we present a deep neural network (DNN) scheme that surrogates the process-based wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) interface. The DNN wildfire model accurately simulates observed burned area with over 90 % higher accuracy with a large reduction in parameterization time compared with the current process-based wildfire model. The surrogate wildfire model successfully captured the observed monthly regional burned area during validation period 2011 to 2015 (coefficient of determination, R2=0.93). Since the DNN wildfire model has the same input and output requirements as the E3SM process-based wildfire model, our results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning for high accuracy and efficient large-scale land model development and predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cities Are Concentrators of Complex, MultiSectoral Interactions Within the Human-Earth System

Cities are concentrators of complex, multi-sectoral interactions. As keystones in the interconnected human-Earth system, cities have an outsized impact on the Earth system. We describe a multi-lens framework for organizing our understanding of the complexity of urban systems and scientific research on urban systems, which may be useful for natural system scientists exploring the ways their work can be made more actionable. We then describe four critical dimensions along which improvements are needed to advance the urban research that addresses urgent climate challenges: (a) solutions-oriented research, (b) equity-centered assessments which rely on fine-scale human and ecological data, (c) co-production of knowledge, and (d) better integration of human and natural systems occurring through theory, observation, and modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational prediction of the effect of amino acid changes on the binding affinity between SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD and human ACE2

The association of the receptor binding domain (RBD) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein with human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) represents the first required step for cellular entry. SARS-CoV-2 has continued to evolve with the emergence of several novel variants, and amino acid changes in the RBD have been implicated with increased fitness and potential for immune evasion. Reliably predicting the effect of amino acid changes on the ability of the RBD to interact more strongly with the hACE2 can help assess the implications for public health and the potential for spillover and adaptation into other animals. Here, we introduce a two-step framework that first relies on 48 independent 4-ns molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories of RBD-hACE2 variants to collect binding energy terms decomposed into Coulombic, covalent, van der Waals, lipophilic, generalized Born solvation, hydrogen bonding, π-π packing, and self-contact correction terms. The second step implements a neural network to classify and quantitatively predict binding affinity changes using the decomposed energy terms as descriptors. The computational base achieves a validation accuracy of 82.8% for classifying single–amino acid substitution variants of the RBD as worsening or improving binding affinity for hACE2 and a correlation coefficient of 0.73 between predicted and experimentally calculated changes in binding affinities. Both metrics are calculated using a fivefold cross-validation test. Our method thus sets up a framework for screening binding affinity changes caused by unknown single– and multiple–amino acid changes offering a valuable tool to predict host adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 variants toward tighter hACE2 binding.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Green synthesis and characterization of nontoxic L-methionine capped silver and gold nanoparticles

The simple green method for synthesis of stable L-Methionine (L-Met) capped silver (Ag@LM NPs) and gold (Au@LM NPs) nanoparticles (NPs) without adding any additional reduction agent or stabilizer was developed. Colloidal dispersions were characterized by UV–Vis spectrophotometry. The size and spherical shape of NPs were evaluated by transmission electron microscopy. Their surface covering was confirmed by atomic force microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, dynamic light scattering, and zeta potential measurements. Density functional theory calculations pointed that the preferential adsorption mode of L-Met on both Ag and Au surfaces was a vertical binding geometry via –NH2 group, while horizontal binding mode via [sbnd]S[sbnd] and –NH2 groups is also possible. The genotoxicity (evaluated by the micronucleus assay) of NPs, as well as their effects on some oxidative stress parameters (catalase activity, malondialdehyde level), were assessed in vitro using human peripheral blood cells as a model system. The influence of NPs on the morphology of lymphocyte cells studied using atomic force microscopy revealed that the membrane of cells remained unaffected after the treatment with NPs. When considering the effects of NPs on catalase activity and malondialdehyde level, neither particle type promoted oxidative stress. However, the treatment of lymphocytes with Ag@LM NPs induced a concentration-dependent enhancement of the micronuclei incidence and suppression of the cell proliferation while Au@LM NPs promoted cell proliferation, with no significant effects on micronuclei formation. The Ag@LM NPs were more prone to induce DNA damage than Au@LM NPs, which makes the latter type more suitable for further studies in nano-medicine. © 2019.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

CD8 + T cells control SIV infection using both cytolytic effects and non-cytolytic suppression of virus production

Whether CD8 + T lymphocytes control human immunodeficiency virus infection by cytopathic or non-cytopathic mechanisms is not fully understood. Multiple studies highlighted non-cytopathic effects, but one hypothesis is that cytopathic effects of CD8 + T cells occur before viral production. Here, to examine the role of CD8 + T cells prior to virus production, we treated SIVmac251-infected macaques with an integrase inhibitor combined with a CD8-depleting antibody, or with either reagent alone. We analyzed the ensuing viral dynamics using a mathematical model that included infected cells pre- and post- viral DNA integration to compare different immune effector mechanisms. Macaques receiving the integrase inhibitor alone experienced greater viral load decays, reaching lower nadirs on treatment, than those treated also with the CD8 - depleting antibody. Models including CD8 + cell-mediated reduction of viral production (non-cytolytic) were found to best explain the viral profiles across all macaques, in addition an effect in killing infected cells pre-integration (cytolytic) was supported in some of the best models. Our results suggest that CD8 + T cells have both a cytolytic effect on infected cells before viral integration, and a direct, non-cytolytic effect by suppressing viral production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

CondiDiag1.0: a flexible online diagnostic tool for conditional sampling and budget analysis in the E3SM atmosphere model (EAM)

Abstract. Numerical models used in weather and climate prediction take into account a comprehensive set of atmospheric processes (i.e., phenomena) such as the resolved and unresolved fluid dynamics, radiative transfer, cloud and aerosol life cycles, and mass or energy exchanges with the Earth's surface. In order to identify model deficiencies and improve predictive skills, it is important to obtain process-level understanding of the interactions between different processes. Conditional sampling and budget analysis are powerful tools for process-oriented model evaluation, but they often require tedious ad hoc coding and large amounts of instantaneous model output, resulting in inefficient use of human and computing resources. This paper presents an online diagnostic tool that addresses this challenge by monitoring model variables in a generic manner as they evolve within the time integration cycle. The tool is convenient to use. It allows users to select sampling conditions and specify monitored variables at run time. Both the evolving values of the model variables and their increments caused by different atmospheric processes can be monitored and archived. Online calculation of vertical integrals is also supported. Multiple sampling conditions can be monitored in a single simulation in combination with unconditional sampling. The paper explains in detail the design and implementation of the tool in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1. The usage is demonstrated through three examples: a global budget analysis of dust aerosol mass concentration, a composite analysis of sea salt emission and its dependency on surface wind speed, and a conditionally sampled relative humidity budget. The tool is expected to be easily portable to closely related atmospheric models that use the same or similar data structures and time integration methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis: Tool Development and Method Evaluation

This report is an update to a prior report that describes progress and findings for a program of research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and throughout the plant, along with a greater interest in the use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed early in the design process. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical systems theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is primarily intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control, feedback, and communication relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. We have employed two STAMP-based tools in this effort. The first is Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST), an accident and incident analysis technique that was used to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant involving the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. The second tool is Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) which is a proactive risk analysis tool used to examine existing and potential, planned sociotechnical systems. STPA was used to identify risk factors in the current design of a generic nuclear power plant (NPP) preventive maintenance system. Our analyses focused on identifying near-term system improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived time and schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the eventual event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. STPA findings exposed several areas of concern in the design of current preventive maintenance systems. We also present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution (PIR) model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system and represents an end-state vision for our work. From our results, we have generated an initial set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints for these models. We have also focused on early development of easy to learn, easy to use “transportable” tools for sociotechnical systems analysis. We intend these to be used by NPP personnel as a means of gaining reliable and relatively quick insight into (1) sociotechnical systems factors impacting incidents and accidents, (2) potential sociotechnical risk factors in existing or planned system designs, and (3) potential weaknesses in a system’s safety and/or information control structure. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations, a discussion of planned and potential follow-on research and development, and a draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The United States Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health Collaboration: Medical Care Advances by Discovery in Radiation Detection

A National Institutes of Health (NIH) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science virtual workshop on shared general topics was held in July of 2021 and reported on in this publication in January of 2023. Following the inaugural 2021 joint meeting representatives from the DOE Office of Science and NIH met to discuss organizing a second joint workshop that would concentrate on radiation detection to bring together teams from both agencies and their grantee populations to stimulate collaboration and efficiency. To meet this scientific mission within the NIH and DOE radiation detection space, the organizers assembled workshop sessions covering the state–of–the–art in cameras, detectors, and sensors for radiation external and internal (diagnostic and therapeutic) to human, data acquisition and electronics, image reconstruction and processing, and the application of artificial intelligence. NIH and DOE are committed to continuing the process of convening a joint workshop every 12–24 months. This Special Report recaps the findings of this second workshop. Beyond showing only the innovations and areas of success, important gaps in our knowledge were defined and presented. Finally, we summarize by defining four areas of greatest opportunity and need that emerged from the unique, dynamic dialogue the in–person workshop provided the attendees.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Artificial extracellular matrix scaffolds of mobile molecules enhance maturation of human stem cell-derived neurons

Human induced pluripotent stem cell (hiPSC) technologies offer a unique resource for modeling neurological diseases. However, iPSC models are fraught with technical limitations including abnormal aggregation and inefficient maturation of differentiated neurons. These problems are in part due to the absence of synergistic cues of the native extracellular matrix (ECM). We report on the use of three artificial ECMs based on peptide amphiphile (PA) supramolecular nanofibers. All nanofibers display the laminin-derived IKVAV signal on their surface but differ in the nature of their non-bioactive domains. Here, we find that nanofibers with greater intensity of internal supramolecular motion have enhanced bioactivity toward hiPSC-derived motor and cortical neurons. Proteomic, biochemical, and functional assays reveal that highly mobile PA scaffolds caused enhanced β1-integrin pathway activation, reduced aggregation, increased arborization, and matured electrophysiological activity of neurons. Our work highlights the importance of designing biomimetic ECMs to study the development, function, and dysfunction of human neurons.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The solution structures of higher-order human telomere G-quadruplex multimers

Human telomeres contain the repeat DNA sequence 5'-d(TTAGGG), with duplex regions that are several kilobases long terminating in a 3' single-stranded overhang. The structure of the single-stranded overhang is not known with certainty, with disparate models proposed in the literature. We report here the results of an integrated structural biology approach that combines small-angle X-ray scattering, circular dichroism (CD), analytical ultracentrifugation, size-exclusion column chromatography and molecular dynamics simulations that provide the most detailed characterization to date of the structure of the telomeric overhang. We find that the single-stranded sequences 5'-d(TTAGGG)n, with n = 8, 12 and 16, fold into multimeric structures containing the maximal number (2, 3 and 4, respectively) of contiguous G4 units with no long gaps between units. The G4 units are a mixture of hybrid-1 and hybrid-2 conformers. In the multimeric structures, G4 units interact, at least transiently, at the interfaces between units to produce distinctive CD signatures. Global fitting of our hydrodynamic and scattering data to a worm-like chain (WLC) model indicates that these multimeric G4 structures are semi-flexible, with a persistence length of ~34 Å. Investigations of its flexibility using MD simulations reveal stacking, unstacking, and coiling movements, which yield unique sites for drug targeting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synaptic Functionality and Neuromorphic Information Processing in Membrane Ion Channel Junctions

The human brain performs complex memory and computational tasks with high energy efficiency by regulating ion transport through membrane channels. These signaling mechanisms have been inspiring the development of nanofluidic memristors that emulate synaptic behavior. Here, in this study, we describe a membrane ion channel synapse (MICS), constructed from aqueous droplets linked by gramicidin A channels, that achieves neuromorphic functionality. MICS exhibits memristive ion transport with hysteretic current–voltage behavior arising from voltage-dependent channel formation and ion transport dynamics. MICS emulates a range of synaptic behaviors including associative learning. We further demonstrate its application in reservoir computing by performing handwritten digit classification and tic-tac-toe game and explore the system parameters that improve the computational performance. This droplet-based biomimetic synapse offers a potentially scalable and energy-efficient platform for next-generation neuromorphic computing systems.

Droplet interface bilayer↗
DOE OSTI2021

Molecular basis for higher affinity of SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD for human ACE2 receptor

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused substantially more infections, deaths, and economic disruptions than the 2002-2003 SARSCoV. The key to understanding SARS-CoV-2's higher infectivity lies partly in its host receptor recognition mechanism. Experiments show that the human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) protein, which serves as the primary receptor for both CoVs, binds to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of CoV-2's spike protein stronger than SARS-CoV's spike RBD. The molecular basis for this difference in binding affinity, however, remains unexplained from X-ray structures. To go beyond insights gained from X-ray structures and investigate the role of thermal fluctuations in structure, we employ all-atom molecular dynamics simulations. Microseconds-long simulations reveal that while CoV and CoV-2 spike-ACE2 interfaces have similar conformational binding modes, CoV-2 spike interacts with ACE2 via a larger combinatorics of polar contacts, and on average, makes 45% more polar contacts. Correlation analysis and thermodynamic calculations indicate that these differences in the density and dynamics of polar contacts arise from differences in spatial arrangements of interfacial residues, and dynamical coupling between interfacial and non-interfacial residues. Furthermore, these results recommend that ongoing efforts to design spike-ACE2 peptide blockers will benefit from incorporating dynamical information as well as allosteric coupling effects.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design and evaluation of novel analogs of 2-amino-4-boronobutanoic acid (ABBA) as inhibitors of human gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase

Inhibitors of gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT1, aka gamma-glutamyl transferase) are needed for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular illness and other diseases. Compounds that inhibit GGT1 have been evaluated in the clinic, but no inhibitor has successfully demonstrated specific and systemic GGT1 inhibition. All have severe side effects. L-2-amino-4-boronobutanoic acid (l-ABBA), a glutamate analog, is the most potent GGT1 inhibitor in vitro. In this study, we have solved the crystal structure of human GGT1 (hGGT1) with ABBA bound in the active site. The structure was interrogated to identify interactions between the enzyme and the inhibitor. Based on these data, a series of novel ABBA analogs were designed and synthesized. Their inhibitory activity against the hydrolysis and transpeptidation activities of hGGT1 were determined. The lead compounds were crystalized with hGGT1 and the structures solved. The kinetic data and structures of the complexes provide new insights into the critical role of protein structure dynamics in developing compounds for inhibition of hGGT1.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Emergence of seasonal delay of tropical rainfall during 1979–2019

Fundamental to Earth’s climate, tropical rainfall marks a dominant annual cycle characterized by its amplitude and phase, representing the range between wet and dry seasons and their onset timing, respectively. Under global warming, previous studies revealed enhanced amplitude of rainfall annual cycle over ocean and delayed phase over land in the tropics, underpinned by solid theories. It is unclear however whether these changes have already emerged in the observational records. Here, we report a robust delay of 3.02 and 3.43 days over the northern tropical land and Sahel respectively during 1979-2018 based on five observation datasets. Furthermore, most of the delay is captured by multiple ensemble simulations driven by external forcings, with greenhouse gases (GHG) more important over the northern tropical land and anthropogenic aerosols (AER) more important over the Sahel. Both GHG and AER delay the annual cycle of regional precipitation similarly by producing a moister and more ocean-like atmosphere, thus increasing its lag in response to seasonal solar forcing. Our findings provide new evidence of the human footprints on Earth’s hydrological cycle at continental and regional scales. As GHG and AER continue to increase and decrease respectively, these seasonal delays will be further amplified in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the strength of selection for new SARS-CoV-2 variants

Abstract Controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic becomes increasingly challenging as the virus adapts to human hosts through the continual emergence of more transmissible variants. Simply observing that a variant is increasing in frequency is relatively straightforward, but more sophisticated methodology is needed to determine whether a new variant is a global threat and the magnitude of its selective advantage. We present two models for quantifying the strength of selection for new and emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 relative to the background of contemporaneous variants. These methods range from a detailed model of dynamics within one country to a broad analysis across all countries, and they include alternative explanations such as migration and drift. We find evidence for strong selection favoring the D614G spike mutation and B.1.1.7 (Alpha), weaker selection favoring B.1.351 (Beta), and no advantage of R.1 after it spreads beyond Japan. Cutting back data to earlier time horizons reveals that uncertainty is large very soon after emergence, but that estimates of selection stabilize after several weeks. Our results also show substantial heterogeneity among countries, demonstrating the need for a truly global perspective on the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative measurements of reactive oxygen species partitioning in electron transfer flavoenzyme magnetic field sensing

Biological magnetic field sensing that gives rise to physiological responses is of considerable importance in quantum biology. The radical pair mechanism (RPM) is a fundamental quantum process that can explain some of the observed biological magnetic effects. In magnetically sensitive radical pair (RP) reactions, coherent spin dynamics between singlet and triplet pairs are modulated by weak magnetic fields. The resulting singlet and triplet reaction products lead to distinct biological signaling channels and cellular outcomes. A prevalent RP in biology is between flavin semiquinone and superoxide (O 2 •–) in the biological activation of molecular oxygen. This RP can result in a partitioning of reactive oxygen species (ROS) products to form either O 2 •– or hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ). Here, we examine magnetic sensing of recombinant human electron transfer flavoenzyme (ETF) reoxidation by selectively measuring O 2 •– and H 2 O 2 product distributions. ROS partitioning was observed between two static magnetic fields at 20 nT and 50 μT, with a 13% decrease in H 2 O 2 singlet products and a 10% increase in O 2 •– triplet products relative to 50 µT. RPM product yields were calculated for a realistic flavin/superoxide RP across the range of static magnetic fields, in agreement with experimental results. For a triplet born RP, the RPM also predicts about three times more O 2 •– than H 2 O 2 , with experimental results exhibiting about four time more O 2 •– produced by ETF. The method presented here illustrates the potential of a novel magnetic flavoprotein biological sensor that is directly linked to mitochondria bioenergetics and can be used as a target to study cell physiology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational studies reveal Fluorine based quinolines to be potent inhibitors for proteins involved in SARS-CoV-2 assembly

World is witnessing one of the worst pandemics of this century caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus which has affected millions of individuals. Despite rapid efforts to develop vaccines and drugs for COVID-19, the disease is still not under control. Chloroquine (CQ) and Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) are two very promising inhibitors which have shown positive effect in combating the disease in preliminary experimental studies, but their use was reduced due to severe side-effects. Here, we performed a theoretical investigation of the same by studying the binding of the molecules with SARS-COV-2 Spike protein, the complex formed by Spike and ACE2 human receptor and a human serine protease TMPRSS2 which aids in cleavage of the Spike protein to initiate the viral activation in the body. Both the molecules had shown very good docking energies in the range of -6kcal/mol. Subsequently, we did a high throughput screening for other potential quinoline candidates which could be used as inhibitors. From the large pool of ligand candidates, we shortlisted the top three ligands (binding energy -8kcal/mol). We tested the stability of the docked complexes by running Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations where we observed the stability of the quinoline analogues with the Spike-ACE2 and TMPRSS2 nevertheless the quinolines were not stable with the Spike protein alone. Thus, although the inhibitors bond very well with the protein molecules their intrinsic binding affinity depends on the protein dynamics. Moreover, the quinolines were stable when bound to electronegative pockets of Spike-ACE2 or TMPRSS2 but not with Viral Spike protein. We also observed that a Fluoride based compound: 3-[3-(Trifluoromethyl)phenyl]quinoline helps the inhibitor to bind with both Spike-ACE2 and TMPRSS2 with equal probability. The molecular details presented in this study would be very useful for developing quinoline based drugs for COVID-19 treatment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗