SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “global models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 559 records · Page 31

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Contrasting Parametric Sensitivities in Two Global Vegetation Models Using Parameter Perturbation Ensembles

Uncertainty in land model projections remains high and the roles of parametric and structural uncertainty are difficult to disentangle. To compare parametric sensitivity across model structures we present two parameter perturbation ensembles using the Community Land Model (CLM) operating in satellite phenology mode. The ensembles contrast two vegetation modules: (a) the default CLM vegetation module and (b) the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (CLM-FATES). We perturbed over 300 parameters and quantified their effects on biophysical fluxes globally and across biomes. Most parameters have minimal impact on biophysical fluxes, with only a few substantially influencing results. While both models exhibit similar parameter sensitivity for some fluxes, CLM-FATES shows larger spread in gross primary productivity (GPP), driven by strong sensitivity to carboxylation rate. CLM-FATES also shows a weaker GPP response to soil hydrology parameters and exhibits higher water use efficiency (WUE). Cross-model comparisons reveal similar sensitivities for some parameters (e.g., leaf dimension) but divergent responses to others (e.g., stomatal intercept), highlighting underlying structural differences. Differences in WUE and sensitivity to hydrology and stomatal conductance parameters underscore how model structure fundamentally alters parametric sensitivity. The data sets generated from these ensembles can be used to identify influential parameters and guide future calibration efforts.

Foster, A. C. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric↗

NASA NTRS2002

Global Reference Atmospheric Model and Trace Constituents

Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-99) is an engineering-level model of the Earth's atmosphere. It provides both mean values and perturbations for density, temperature, pressure, and winds, as well as monthly- and geographically-varying trace constituent concentrations. From 0-27 km, thermodynamics and winds are based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) climatology. Above 120 km, GRAM is based on the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET) model. In the intervening altitude region, GRAM is based on Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) climatology that also forms the basis of the 1986 COSPAR Intemationa1 Reference Atmosphere (CIRA). MAP data in GRAM are augmented by a specially-derived longitude variation climatology. Atmospheric composition is represented in GRAM by concentrations of both major and minor species. Above 120 km, MET provides concentration values for N2, O2, Ar, O, He, and H. Below 120 km, species represented also include H2O, O3, N2O, CO, CH, and CO2. Water vapor in GRAM is based on a combination of GUACA, Air Force Geophysics Laboratory (AFGL), and NASA Langley Research Center climatologies. Other constituents below 120 km are based on a combination of AFGL and h4AP/CIRA climatologies. This report presents results of comparisons between GRAM Constituent concentrations and those provided by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) climatology of Summers (NRL,/MR/7641-93-7416, 1993). GRAM and NRL concentrations were compared for seven species (CH4, CO, CO2, H2O, N2O, O2, and O3) for months January, April, July, and October, over height range 0-115 km, and latitudes -90deg to + 90deg at 10deg increments. Average GRAM-NRL correlations range from 0.878 (for CO) to 0.975 (for O3), with an average over all seven species of 0.936 (standard deviation 0.049).

Justus, C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Light, temperature, and leaf nitrogen distribution in the tropical rain forest of Biosphere 2 and their importance in the mathematical models for global environmental changes

As the environmental changes occur throughout the world in rapid rate, we need to have further understandings for our planet. Since the ecosystems are so complex, it is almost impossible for us to integrate every factor. However, mathematical models are powerful tools which can be used to simulate those ecosystems with limited data. In this project, I collected light intensity, canopy leaf temperature and Air Handler (AHU) temperature, and nitrogen concentration in the leaves for different profiles in the rainforest mesocosm. These data will later be put into mathematical models such as "big-leaf" and "sun/shade" models to determine how these factors will affect CO2 exchange in the rainforest. As rainforests are diminishing from our planet and their existence is very important for all living things on earth, it is necessary for us to learn more about the unique system of rainforests and how we can co-exist rather than destroy.

Tohda, Motofumi↗

NASA NTRS2017

Retrievals of Aerosol Microphysics from Simulations of Spaceborne Multiwavelength Lidar Measurements

In support of the Aerosol, Clouds, Ecosystems mission, simulations of a spaceborne multiwavelength lidar are performed based on global model simulations of the atmosphere along a satellite orbit track. The yield for aerosol microphysical inversions is quantified and comparisons are made between the aerosol microphysics inherent in the global model and those inverted from both the model's optical data and the simulated three backscatter and two extinction lidar measurements, which are based on the model's optical data. We find that yield can be significantly increased if inversions based on a reduced optical dataset of three backscatter and one extinction are acceptable. In general, retrieval performance is better for cases where the aerosol fine mode dominates although a lack of sensitivity to particles with sizes less than 0.1 microns is found. Lack of sensitivity to coarse mode cases is also found, in agreement with earlier studies. Surface area is generally the most robustly retrieved quantity. The work here points toward the need for ancillary data to aid in the constraints of the lidar inversions and also for joint inversions involving lidar and polarimeter measurements.

aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2013

Impact of Surface Roughness and Soil Texture on Mineral Dust Emission Fluxes Modeling

Dust production models (DPM) used to estimate vertical fluxes of mineral dust aerosols over arid regions need accurate data on soil and surface properties. The Laboratoire Inter-Universitaire des Systemes Atmospheriques (LISA) data set was developed for Northern Africa, the Middle East, and East Asia. This regional data set was built through dedicated field campaigns and include, among others, the aerodynamic roughness length, the smooth roughness length of the erodible fraction of the surface, and the dry (undisturbed) soil size distribution. Recently, satellite-derived roughness length and high-resolution soil texture data sets at the global scale have emerged and provide the opportunity for the use of advanced schemes in global models. This paper analyzes the behavior of the ERS satellite-derived global roughness length and the State Soil Geographic data base-Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (STATSGO-FAO) soil texture data set (based on wet techniques) using an advanced DPM in comparison to the LISA data set over Northern Africa and the Middle East. We explore the sensitivity of the drag partition scheme (a critical component of the DPM) and of the dust vertical fluxes (intensity and spatial patterns) to the roughness length and soil texture data sets. We also compare the use of the drag partition scheme to a widely used preferential source approach in global models. Idealized experiments with prescribed wind speeds show that the ERS and STATSGO-FAO data sets provide realistic spatial patterns of dust emission and friction velocity thresholds in the region. Finally, we evaluate a dust transport model for the period of March to July 2011 with observed aerosol optical depths from Aerosol Robotic Network sites. Results show that ERS and STATSGO-FAO provide realistic simulations in the region.

textures↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation and improvement of the parameterization of aerosol hygroscopicity in global climate models using in-situ surface measurements (Final Report)

Aerosols are tiny particles suspended on the atmosphere that can interact with incoming solar radiation and affect the Earth radiative budget. They do so by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and these properties vary depending on the aerosol size and chemical composition. Moreover, by taking up water from the surrounding air, hygroscopic aerosol particles will grow in size and change their chemical composition, thus modifying their optical properties (scattering and absorption) and their final impact on radiative forcing calculations. An accurate knowledge of aerosol hygroscopicity is crucial for estimating the net radiative impact of aerosols. We took a three-pronged approach to improve our understanding of aerosol hygroscopicity and how it is implemented in Earth system models. In the first part of our project, we developed a benchmark dataset from existing aerosol hygroscopic growth measurements made by tandem nephelometer humidogram systems. We analyzed, using a standardized methodology, observations from 26 in-situ stations around the globe. Measurement data was collected from multiple data providers, reviewed and harmonized to create a consistent dataset of the scattering enhancement factor due to aerosol water uptake. This dataset is archived in several publicly available databases for use by interested researchers. In the second part of the project, we used the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset to perform a global study on aerosol hygroscopicity and aerosol optical properties. Measurements show a global picture of scattering enhancement with larger values for Arctic and marine sites and lower for urban and desert sites. We assessed the RH dependence of aerosol radiative forcing and showed that the overall effect of aerosol hygroscopicity on DARF is an increase in the absolute forcing effect (negative sign) by a factor of up to 4 compared to dry conditions (RH<40%). Finally, we explored using aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) and scattering Angstrom exponent (SAE) as possible proxies for aerosol hygroscopicity. SSA showed more promise as a surrogate for the scattering enhancement factor than SAE, but neither was ideal. In the third part of the project we evaluated the output of ten Earth system models (ESMs) against the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset. ESMs utilize various schemes for aerosol hygroscopicity which had not been previously tested against observations on a global scale. We found that ESMs currently overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. Model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are two main factors driving the observed diversity in hygroscopicity simulations among the models. In addition, our study makes several suggestions for modelers, including improving the parameterizations of organic and sea salt aerosol hygroscopicity. Future hygroscopicity model evaluation experiments should include the model data related to particles size which was not available for our study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2007

Structural Analysis of the Redesigned Ice/Frost Ramp Bracket

This paper describes the interim structural analysis of a redesigned Ice/Frost Ramp bracket for the Space Shuttle External Tank (ET). The proposed redesigned bracket consists of mounts for attachment to the ET wall, supports for the electronic/instrument cables and propellant repressurization lines that run along the ET, an upper plate, a lower plate, and complex bolted connections. The eight nominal bolted connections are considered critical in the summarized structural analysis. Each bolted connection contains a bolt, a nut, four washers, and a non-metallic spacer and block that are designed for thermal insulation. A three-dimensional (3D) finite element model of the bracket is developed using solid 10-node tetrahedral elements. The loading provided by the ET Project is used in the analysis. Because of the complexities associated with accurately modeling the bolted connections in the bracket, the analysis is performed using a global/local analysis procedure. The finite element analysis of the bracket identifies one of the eight bolted connections as having high stress concentrations. A local area of the bracket surrounding this bolted connection is extracted from the global model and used as a local model. Within the local model, the various components of the bolted connection are refined, and contact is introduced along the appropriate interfaces determined by the analysts. The deformations from the global model are applied as boundary conditions to the local model. The results from the global/local analysis show that while the stresses in the bolts are well within yield, the spacers fail due to compression. The primary objective of the interim structural analysis is to show concept viability for static thermal testing. The proposed design concept would undergo continued design optimization to address the identified analytical assumptions and concept shortcomings, assuming successful thermal testing.

Phillips, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Maximizing the Scientific Return of the Sentinels Mission Using Global MHD Models

The Sentinels mission promises to provide a unique view of the acceleration and transport processes of energetic particles as well as the initiation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A crucial component in understanding the physics associated with these processes lies in the large-scale structure of the corona and heliosphere, particularly during the eruption and propagation of fast CMEs. In this talk we review the current status of our MHD modeling efforts, focusing on Sentinels-specific science, and project forward to envisage what capabilities we may have developed by the time that the Sentinels launch (2012). In conjunction with Solar Orbiter, the farside and near-Earth Sentinels spacecraft will provide simultaneous photospheric magnetograph measurements at multiple longitudes, which will lead to major improvements in our ability to prescribe accurate, time-dependent global boundary conditions. Data returned from the inner heliospheric Sentinels will be used to validate these results. The model results can be used in a variety of ways to interpret the observations. For example, products from the model, such as the properties of CME-driven shocks and CME-associated reconnection sites can be used to interpret complex energetic particle profiles. Also, by tracing along magnetic field lines, the inferred sites of the energetic particles can be connected directly with the in situ measurements at each spacecraft. Perhaps more so than any previous mission, sophisticated models will be required to unravel the broad and disparate measurements returned by the suite of Sentinels spacecraft.

Riley, P.↗

NASA NTRS1972

A global empirical model of thermospheric composition based on OGO-6 mass spectrometer measurements

The analysis of composition measurements made with the neutral mass spectrometer aboard the OGO-6 satellite leads to the following conclusions. The measured atomic oxygen densities are generally in good agreement with those deduced from drag. The molecular nitrogen densities in the annual and semiannual variations depart significantly from those predicted by drag models and suggest similar departures for exospheric temperatures. The helium densities generally tend to vary in an inverse manner to the nitrogen densities. These composition changes are consistent with dynamical processes associated with the global circulation in the thermosphere.

Hedin, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Testing solar models with global solar oscillations in the 5-minute band

Frequencies of solar oscillation for normal modes described by spherical harmonics with l-values between 0 and 4 are computed. The method of computation is discussed and some of the theoretical uncertainties are examined. It is shown that the standard solar model has eigenfrequencies which do not agree with the frequencies observed for the low l-modes to within the estimated accuracy of either the observed or theoretical frequencies. Four non-standard models are considered: (1) the interior Z abundance is lower than the surface abundance; (2) the interior Z abundance is higher than the surface abundance; (3) the interior Z abundance is altered by mixing; and (4) a large primordial magnetic field remains in the solar core. The effect of all these models on the solar neutrino flux is considered, with the result that the high-Z model is rejected. The conclusions of Bahcall and Ulrich (1971) that a primordial magnetic field increases the neutrino flux are disputed.

Ulrich, R. K.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Two–Dimensional Idealized Hadley Circulation Simulation for Global High Resolution Model Development

A new framework for the development of global high resolution models using a vertical- meridional, two-dimensional pole-to-pole domain is proposed. Compared with the three-dimensional global model, the two-dimensional framework can simulate cloud-scale convection at significantly reduced computational cost, data volume, and turn-around time, and accelerate the development phase. Although idealized, it allows for simulation of various clouds and scale interactions under a wide range of environmental conditions, even though zonal waves such as mid latitude storms cannot be simulated. Physics schemes can be tested and assessed over a full array of simultaneously occurring cloud regimes. The framework can serve as an intermediate step between a one-dimensional simulation and a full three-dimensional global model. Using this framework, we analyze the resolution dependencies of simulated clouds and the Hadley circulation in a range of global high resolution models by performing multiple 1000-day simulations; for some resolutions tested, for example, 2 km horizontal resolution, three-dimensional simulation is not feasible at the present time. Analysis shows that both horizontal and vertical resolution determine the properties of the Hadley circulation and clouds, and that the differences among the simulated Hadley circulations are understood as differences in scale interactions influenced by resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

PM2.5↗

NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017

Hurricanes Juan (1985) and Harvey (2017) bear remarkable similarities because of the exceptional amount of accumulated precipitation over coastal regions in the Gulf, consequent to the peculiar and rare situation in which a hurricane stalls for several days on a coastal area, displaying minimal progress. This is particularly dangerous because: a) terrestrial drag affect only part of the circulation so that weakening is not as fast as when there is rapid motion inland; b) a part of the circulation remains over water and as such low-level moisture flux convergence is maintained; c) precipitation lasts for a very long time over the same area; d) moisture recycling from flooded areas further contributes to maintaining flood conditions. From the forecast perspective, hurricanes with track singularities such as stalling points, loops, or multiple landfalls over the same region are exceptionally difficult to predict because they result from small variations of opposing mechanisms and are therefore intrinsically unstable. Intensity fluctuations and track singularities are strongly coupled. The representation of fluxes undergoing differential drag (ocean vs. land) inside the same circulation is critically dependent upon resolution. Recent modeling development efforts within the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have brought the horizontal resolution of the global cubed-sphere Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model down to 12 km. This has led to innovative findings in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) modeling within a global framework. The GEOS atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), used to produce the MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, has a "Replay" capability that adds a forcing term to the model equations to constrain it to follow a specified trajectory. This capability is used to produce global, downscaled versions of the 50 km MERRA-2 reanalysis at a 12.5 km resolution. The full DAS and replay modes both use the Incremental Analysis Update or IAU for applying an analysis increment to the model's background state four times each day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. In a full DAS mode, a six-hour free run of the model is made (Predictor Step), writing states that will be used as backgrounds or first-guesses for the analysis centered on 00Z. The Analysis system then produces its best estimate of the 00Z state by blending backgrounds with observations. The difference between this best estimate and the model's original first guess at 00Z is treated as an analysis increment and added uniformly as a forcing term to the model during a second, now forced, run of the 12Z to 03Z window, which produces the assimilated results. Replay mode is very similar, except only the 00Z background is needed from the predictor segment, which is thus half as long, and instead of doing an analysis, a previously analyzed state at 00Z is read in. The increment is then computed and applied to the corrector step in the same way as in the original DAS. When downscaling horizontal spatial filters can be applied to the "analysis" increment used to force the Corrector step, so as to reproduce the full meteorological state or selectively choose or discard certain forcings. In this presentation, full global hindcast simulations of Juan and operational forecasts of Harvey are compared.

Flooding↗

NASA NTRS1998

Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

The coronal magnetic field defines the structure of the solar corona, the position of the heliospheric current sheet, the regions of fast and slow solar wind, and the most likely sites of coronal mass ejections. There are few measurements of the magnetic fields in the corona, but the line-of-sight component of the global magnetic fields in the photosphere have been routinely measured for many years (for example, at Stanford's Wilcox Solar Observatory, and at the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak). The SOI/MDI instrument is now providing high-resolution full-disk magnetograms several times a day. Understanding the large-scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere requires accurately mapping the measured photospheric magnetic field into the corona and outward. Ideally, a model should not only extrapolate the magnetic field, but should self-consistently reconstruct both the plasma and magnetic fields in the corona and solar wind. Support from our NASA SR&T contract has allowed us to develop three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computations of the solar corona that incorporate observed photospheric magnetic fields into the boundary conditions. These calculations not only describe the magnetic field in the corona and interplanetary spice, but also predict the plasma properties as well. Our computations thus far have been successful in reproducing many aspects of both coronal and interplanetary data, including the structure of the streamer belt, the location of coronal hole boundaries, and the position and shape of the heliospheric current sheet. The most widely used technique for extrapolating the photospheric magnetic field into the corona and heliosphere are potential field models, such as the potential field source-surface model (PFSS),and the potential field current-sheet (PFCS) model

Linker, Jon A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Diurnal Cycle of IMERG V06 Precipitation

This study demonstrates the maturing ability of the half-hourly precipitation estimates from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) for use in global analyses of the diurnal cycle. The refined intercalibration and interpolation between the sensors in V06 leads to greater consistency in the precipitation retrievals over different hours of the day. Evaluation against ground measurements suggests a slight lag in the diurnal phase of only +0.59 h. We demonstrate the diurnal cycle over different regions around the globe, including the Maritime Continent, where accurate representation of precipitation variability in global models remains a challenge. Using examples over Singapore, Bangladesh, and Lake Victoria, we reveal the intricate interplay between diurnal and seasonal variability. This study demonstrates the unprecedented capability of IMERG in capturing the diurnal cycle of precipitation globally, potentially advancing our understanding in regions of sparse ground measurements and supporting improvements in its representation in global models.

Jackson Tan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Features of mid- and high-latitude low-level clouds and their relation to strong aerosol effects in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2)

The E3SMv2 model, like various other global models that include representations of aerosol–cloud interactions, uses an empirically chosen lower bound on the simulated in-cloud cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) to help constrain the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, ERFaer. This study identifies where ultra-low CDNCs (i.e., concentrations lower than 10 cm−3) occur in the stratiform and shallow convective clouds simulated by E3SMv2 and which of the occurrences have the strongest impact on ERF aer . Process-level analyses are presented to reveal characteristics of the cloud droplet formation and removal processes associated with impactful ultra-low CDNCs. Simulations performed with present-day emissions show that ultra-low CDNCs are most frequently found over the mid- and high-latitude oceans in both hemispheres, while the occurrences are also frequent in polluted continental regions despite the high aerosol concentrations. Ultra-low CDNCs with the largest impacts on the simulated regional and global mean ERF aer are found in the lower troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. These cases are typically associated with large cloud fractions, strong water vapor condensation, weak turbulence, and lack of cloud droplet nucleation from aerosol activation. Under such atmospheric conditions, boosting aerosol activation and enhancing turbulent mixing of cloud droplet number can increase the simulated CDNCs, although the magnitude of the global mean ERF aer increases undesirably. The reason for this model behavior is discussed. Overall, our study suggests that mid- and high-latitude low-level stratus occurring under weak turbulence is a cloud regime worth further investigating for the purpose of identifying and addressing the root causes of ultra-low CDNCs and strong ERF aer in E3SM.

Aerosol-Cloud Interaction↗

NASA NTRS1983

Global empirical model of the Venus thermosphere

Direct measurements of neutral CO2, O, CO, N2, He, and N densities from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter Neutral Mass Spectrometer are described in terms of a spherical harmonic representation (latitude and local time coordinates) of exospheric temperature and number densities at 150 km, using modified Bates temperature profiles. The exospheric temperatures are determined from the altitude variations of atomic oxygen. A global average temperature of 228 K is derived with a first harmonic variation of 5%. The altitude profiles are extended downward to 100 km by using empirical formulas to provide a transition through the turbopause region (simulating the effect of eddy diffusion and vertical flows) and matching entry probe density data. The model reflects the observed variations of temperature and density with the 10.7 cm radio flux index. For a given change in flux at the planet, the exospheric temperature on Venus changes by only 10% of the change seen in the terrestrial thermosphere.

Hedin, A. E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Capturing convection essential for projections of climate change in African dust emission

The summertime Sahara and Sahel are the world’s largest source of airborne mineral dust. Cold-pool outflows from moist convection (‘haboobs’) are a dominant source of summertime uplift but are essentially missing in global models, raising major questions on the reliability of climate projections of dust and dust impacts. Here we use convection-permitting simulations of pan-African climate change, which explicitly capture haboobs, to investigate whether this key limitation of global models affects projections. We show that explicit convection is key to capturing the observed summertime maximum of dust-generating winds, which is missed with parameterised convection. Despite this, future climate changes in dust-generating winds are more sensitive to the effects of explicit convection on the wider meteorology than they are to the haboobs themselves, with model differences in the change in dust-generating winds reaching 60% of current values. The results therefore show the importance of improving convection in climate models for dust projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗