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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

In Situ Determination of Thermoelastic Properties of Magnesite at High Pressure and Temperature With Implications to Seismic Detectability of Moderately Carbonated Lithologies in the Earth's Mantle

Abstract Subduction of carbonate‐bearing oceanic plates into Earth's interior recycles carbon from the surface to the deep mantle. The subducted carbonates can significantly affect mantle properties and dynamics. Magnesite is recognized as one of the major potential carbon hosts in the deep mantle because of its stability up to deep lower mantle conditions. However, despite many previous studies on the equation of state and elastic properties of magnesite, large discrepancies still exist for its elastic moduli and their pressure and temperature derivatives. Here we report in situ density and elastic wave velocity measurements on a natural magnesite at simultaneous high pressure‐temperature conditions up to ∼8 GPa–1073 K in a multi‐anvil apparatus using ultrasonic and synchrotron X‐ray techniques. Global fitting of the data set to finite strain equations yieldsK S0 = 114.0 ± 1.2 GPa, = 4.9 ± 0.3, = (−0.019 ± 0.002) GPa/K,G 0 = 68.6 ± 0.4 GPa,G′ = 1.6 ± 0.1, and = (−0.018 ± 0.001) GPa/K. Compared to other major upper mantle and transition zone minerals, magnesite has intermediateV P , the lowestV S , and the lowest density. Thus, magnesite possesses higherV P /V S ratio than other mantle minerals in normal mantle regions, whereas this feature is less pronounced in subduction zone environments. Modeling of the velocity profiles of carbonated lithologies along different geotherms suggests that moderately‐enriched magnesite domains are unlikely to be detected seismically in the Earth's mantle.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precambrian Crystalline Basement Properties From Pressure History Matching and Implications for Induced Seismicity in the US Midcontinent

Injection-induced seismicity across the US midcontinent has almost exclusively occurred in the crystalline basement that underlies the Arbuckle Group aquifer and its equivalents, the primary wastewater disposal zone in this region. However, the properties of the basement are not well known. Newly compiled data, from Class I wells in Kansas, provide a unique record of pressures in the Arbuckle and an opportunity to constrain the reservoir-scale properties of the basement such as permeability, diffusivity, and specific storage. Constraints on these parameters are critical for modeling fluid flow and pressures across the entire Arbuckle-basement system, and are necessary for accurate evaluation and prediction of injection-induced earthquakes. Here, we present a detailed, three-dimensional geological and pressure history-matched numerical model for the Arbuckle and basement, based on data from >400 wells covering a large region in south-central Kansas, where injection-induced seismicity has been concentrated since 2014. Simulations of dynamic data from 319 wells indicate that Arbuckle pressures have increased by 1.1 MPa in high injection rate areas and an overpressure of <0.1 MPa may be the cause of seismicity in the basement. Pressure-history matching also yields the likely range in porosity (0.3%–7%), permeability (0.1–0.7 mD), and diffusivity (0.004–0.07 m2 /s) for the basement. The resulting estimates suggest reservoir-scale properties of the basement are enhanced by faults and fractures. Importantly, the diffusivities determined in this study are lower than estimates derived from Kansas earthquake triggering fronts, and suggest that such seismicity-based techniques may have limitations, particularly where spacetime patterns between injection and seismicity are complex.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a flagship of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). CMIP has become a recognised ‘brand’ in climate circles evolving over the last thirty years from a targeted research activity by a small number of climate modelling centres intercomparing their Earth System Model (ESM) simulations to a broad international coordinated research effort (Durack et al, 2025). CMIP is organized as a research activity leveraging funded and in-kind contributions from experts within modelling centres and the broader scientific community supported more recently by a fully-funded International Project Office. Within CMIP, Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are community-designed to understand past, present and future climate. CMIP data provides a valuable resource for climate research and is routinely used to assess model representation of climate processes and test scientific hypotheses in the context of model uncertainty and (forced and internal) variability as evident from its prolific use in scientific publications1 . The impact relies on enabling infrastructure (most prominently via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)), which allows sharing of simulation output, provision of the boundary conditions used in each simulation, and definition of the data standards that are essential to facilitating wide use of the data. The impact is supplemented by the wide-ranging scrutiny to which model simulations are subjected. Beyond its use in research, CMIP data is a key resource for communities producing derived climate information from downscaling and impact studies, such as the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Gutowski et al., 2016) and the Intersectoral Impacts MIP (ISIMIP; Frieler et al., 2024). Government, academic and commercial entities also increasingly rely on CMIP and its downstream data for climate risk assessments and climate services (for example, Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Bank portal). This means that, although CMIP is a research activity, it increasingly serves a secondary and very relevant role as a provider of climate data – a long-recognised dichotomy (Stevens, 2024). Research and applications have distinct needs, with the former requiring flexibility and generality and the latter consistency. Here we explain how the design of the research activity has been adapted to reduce the burdens imposed by applications and how the research infrastructure might evolve to further enable scientific inquiry. We propose one possible approach to consistently providing model information and projections for applications in the future.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mechanical Response of Castlegate Sandstone under Hydrostatic Cyclic Loading

The stress history of rocks in the subsurface affects their mechanical and petrophysical properties. Rocks can often experience repeated cycles of loading and unloading due to fluid pressure fluctuations, which will lead to different mechanical behavior from static conditions. This is of importance for several geophysical and industrial applications, for example, wastewater injection and reservoir storage wells, which generate repeated stress perturbations. Laboratory experiments were conducted with Castlegate sandstone to observe the effects of different cyclic pressure loading conditions on a common reservoir analogue. Each sample was hydrostatically loaded in a triaxial cell to a low effective confining pressure, and either pore pressure or confining pressure was cycled at different rates over the course of a few weeks. Fluid permeability was measured during initial loading and periodically between stress cycles. Samples that undergo cyclic loading experience significantly more inelastic (nonrecoverable) strain compared to samples tested without cyclic hydrostatic loading. Permeability decreases rapidly for all tests during the first few days of testing, but the decrease and variability of permeability after this depend upon the loading conditions of each test. Cycling conditions do affect the mechanical behavior; the elastic moduli decrease with the increasing loading rate and stress cycling. The degree of volumetric strain induced by stress cycles is the major control on permeability change in the sandstones, with less compaction leading to more variation from measurement to measurement. The data indicate that cyclic loading degrades permeability and porosity more than static conditions over a similar period, but the petrophysical properties are dictated more by the hydrostatic loading rate rather than the total length of time stress cycling is imposed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Along-Trajectory Acoustic Signal Variations Observed During the Hypersonic Re-Entry of the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule

The re-entry of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) sample return capsule (SRC) on 24 September 2023 presented a rare opportunity to study atmospheric entry dynamics through a dense network of ground-based infrasound sensors. As the first interplanetary capsule to re-enter over the United States since Stardust in 2006, this event allowed for unprecedented observations of infrasound signals generated during hypersonic descent. We deployed 39 single-sensor stations across Nevada and Utah, strategically distributed to capture signals from distinct trajectory points. Infrasound data were analyzed to examine how signal amplitude and period vary with altitude and propagation path for a nonablating hypersonic object with well-defined physical and aerodynamic properties. Raytracing simulations incorporated atmospheric specifications from the ground-2-space model to estimate source altitudes for observed signals. Results confirmed ballistic arrivals at all stations, with source altitudes ranging from 44 to 62 km along the trajectory. Signal period and amplitude exhibited strong dependence on source altitude, with higher altitudes corresponding to lower amplitudes, longer periods, and reduced high-frequency content. Regression analysis demonstrated strong correlations between signal characteristics and both altitude and propagation geometry. Our results suggest, when attenuation is considered, the amplitude is primarily determined by the source, with the propagation path playing a secondary role over the distances examined. These findings emphasize the utility of controlled SRC re-entries for advancing our understanding of natural meteoroid dynamics, refining atmospheric entry models, and improving methodologies for planetary defense. The OSIRIS-REx SRC campaign represents the most comprehensive infrasound study of a hypersonic re-entry to date, showcasing the potential of coordinated geophysical observational networks for high-energy atmospheric phenomena, including space debris re-entries.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating SHmax azimuth with P sources and vertical geophones: Use P-P reflection amplitudes or use SV-P reflection times?

We compared two methods for extracting the azimuth of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) from 3D land-based seismic data generated by a P source and recorded with vertical geophones. In the first method, we used the direct-SV mode that is produced by all land-based P sources. P sources generate SV illumination that radiates in all azimuth directions from a source station and creates SV-P reflections that are recorded by vertical geophones. Unless stratigraphy has steep dip, SV-P raypaths recorded by vertical geophones are the reverse of P-SV raypaths recorded by horizontal geophones. Thus, SV-P data provide the same S-wave sensitivity to stress fields as popular P-SV data do. In the second method, we retrieved P-P reflections and then performed an amplitude-variation-with-azimuth (AVA) analysis of the amplitude-gradient behavior of P-P reflection wavelets. We did this analysis in narrow azimuth corridors to determine the gradient of reflection-wavelet amplitudes as a function of azimuth. This P-P AVA amplitude-gradient method has been of great interest in the reflection seismology community since it was introduced in the late 1990s. Each of these methods, AVA analysis of the gradient of P-P reflection amplitudes and azimuth-dependent arrival times of SV-P reflections, can be used to determine the azimuth of SHmax stress. We compare the results of the two methods with ground truth measurements of SHmax azimuth at a CO 2 sequestration site in the Michigan Basin. SHmax azimuths were determined from P-P and SV-P data at three major boundaries at depths of approximately 3500 ft (1067 m), 5500 ft (1676 m), and 7500 ft (2286 m). Two estimates of SHmax azimuth (one using SV-P data and one using P-P data) were made at each stacking bin inside a 24 mi 2 (62 km 2 ) image space. The result was approximately 98,000 estimates of SHmax azimuth across each of these three boundaries for each of these two prediction strategies. Histogram displays of PP AVA gradient estimates had peaks at correct azimuths of SHmax at all three depths, but the spread of the distributions widened with depth and split into two peaks at the deepest boundary. In contrast, each histogram of SHmax azimuth predicted by azimuth-dependent SV-P traveltimes had a single, definitive peak that was positioned at the correct SHmax azimuth at all three boundary depths.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advanced High-Performance Computational Modeling of the Seismic Response of High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSS

New methods for predicting the amplitude and variability of ground shaking from earthquakes (and explosions) are needed for seismic hazard analysis for buildings, nuclear power plants, and critical infrastructure at the NNSS. We are comparing existing 1-D and new 3-D geophysical methods for estimating the shear-wave velocity structure in the upper 30 meters of the ground surface (Vs30), which plays a major role in ground motion amplification and seismic response of buildings. We evaluate the performance of these methodologies at the U1a Complex at the NNSS and develop simple 1-D and high-resolution 3-D Vs30 models. We then emplace these high-resolution models into a background seismic velocity model. We will collaborate with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to conduct numerical modeling of the ground shaking at the NNSS using their high-performance computing technology and state-of-the-art ground motion simulation methodology. The primary work that was completed in FY 2019 was to acquire the seismic systems and familiarize staff at the NNSS with their use. We also worked on developing a collection plan with the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the NNSS, but due to time constraints and other ongoing projects at the DAF, we had to use U1a as a backup. We were able to coordinate the seismic survey, and we will complete the collection of seismic data in FY 2020. Additionally, during FY 2019, we completed the geologic framework model (GFM) for the U1a Complex and modeled the Yucca fault. LLNL worked with us through FY 2019 to prepare the data files for their modeling software and tested the software for reliability. In FY 2020 we will develop the end-to-end capability so that any facility could easily be modeled and the expected shaking from a local earthquake understood. The work in FY 2020 will include building fault models from the GFM and finalizing the velocity model analysis. The final simulations will be run for multiple rupture models, and final assessments will demonstrate the seismic hazard at the U1a Complex.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting induced seismicity in Oklahoma using machine learning methods

Oklahoma earthquakes in the past decade have been mostly associated with wastewater injection. Here we use a machine learning technique—the Random Forest to forecast induced seismicity rate in Oklahoma based on injection-related parameters. We split the data into training (2011.01–2015.05) and test (2015.06–2020.12) periods. The model forecasts seismicity rate during the test period based on input features, including operational parameters (injection rate and pressure), geological information (depth to basement), and modeled pore pressure and poroelastic stress. The results show overall good match with observed seismicity rate (adjusted R 2 of 0.75). The model shows that pore pressure rate and poroelastic stressing rates are the two most important features in forecasting. The absolute values of pore pressure and poroelastic stress, and the injection rate itself, are less important than the stressing rates. These findings further emphasize that temporal changes of stressing rates would lead to significant changes in seismicity rates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

MyCrunchGPT: A LLM Assisted Framework for Scientific Machine Learning

Scientific machine learning (SciML) has advanced recently across many different areas in computational science and engineering. Here, the objective is to integrate data and physics seamlessly without the need of employing elaborate and computationally taxing data assimilation schemes. However, preprocessing, problem formulation, code generation, postprocessing, and analysis are still time- consuming and may prevent SciML from wide applicability in industrial applications and in digital twin frameworks. Here, we integrate the various stages of SciML under the umbrella of ChatGPT, to formulate MyCrunchGPT, which plays the role of a conductor orchestrating the entire workflow of SciML based on simple prompts by the user. Specifically, we present two examples that demonstrate the potential use of MyCrunchGPT in optimizing airfoils in aerodynamics, and in obtaining flow fields in various geometries in interactive mode, with emphasis on the validation stage. To demonstrate the flow of the MyCrunchGPT, and create an infrastructure that can facilitate a broader vision, we built a web app based guided user interface, that includes options for a comprehensive summary report. The overall objective is to extend MyCrunchGPT to handle diverse problems in computational mechanics, design, optimization and controls, and general scientific computing tasks involved in SciML, hence using it as a research assistant tool but also as an educational tool. While here the examples focus on fluid mechanics, future versions will target solid mechanics and materials science, geophysics, systems biology, and bioinformatics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF ULTRASONIC VELOCITIES AND ANISOTROPY IN THE TUSCALOOSA MARINE SHALE FORMATION

Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) formation is a clay- and organic-rich emerging shale play with a considerable amount of hydrocarbon resources. Despite the substantial potential, there have been only a few wells drilled and produced in the formation over the recent years. The analyzed TMS samples contain an average of 50 wt% total clay, 27 wt% quartz and 14 wt% calcite and the mineralogy varies considerably over the small intervals. The high amount of clay leads to pronounced anisotropy and the frequent changes in mineralogy result in the heterogeneity of the formation. We studied the compressional (V P ) and shear-wave (V S ) velocities to evaluate the degree of anisotropy and heterogeneity, which impact hydraulic fracture growth, borehole instabilities, and subsurface imaging. The ultrasonic measurements of P- and S-wave velocities from five TMS wells are the best fit to the linear relationship with R 2 = 0.84 in the least-squares criteria. We observed that TMS S-wave velocities are relatively lower when compared to the established velocity relationships. Most of the velocity data in bedding-normal direction lie outside constant V P /V S lines of 1.6–1.8, a region typical of most organic-rich shale plays. For all of the studied TMS samples, the S-wave velocity anisotropy exhibits higher values than P-wave velocity anisotropy. In the samples in which the composition is dominated by either calcite or quartz minerals, mineralogy controls the velocities and V P /V S ratios to a great extent. Additionally, the organic content and maturity account for the velocity behavior in the samples in which the mineralogical composition fails to do so. The results provide further insights into TMS Formation evaluation and contribute to a better understanding of the heterogeneity and anisotropy of the play.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

From Lake to River: Documenting an Environmental Transition Across the Jura/Knockfarril Hill Members Boundary in the Glen Torridon Region of Gale Crater (Mars)

Between January 2019 and January 2021, the Mars Science Laboratory team explored the Glen Torridon (GT) region in Gale crater (Mars), known for its orbital detection of clay minerals. Mastcam, Mars Hand Lens Imager, and ChemCam data are used in an integrated sedimentological and geochemical study to characterize the Jura member of the upper Murray formation and the Knockfarril Hill member of the overlying Carolyn Shoemaker formation in northern GT. The studied strata show a progressive transition represented by interfingering beds of fine–grained, recessive mudstones of the Jura member and coarser–grained, cross–stratified sandstones attributed to the Knockfarril Hill member. Whereas the former are interpreted as lacustrine deposits, the latter are interpreted as predominantly fluvial deposits. The geochemical composition seen by the ChemCam instrument show K 2 O–rich mudstones (~1–2 wt.%) versus MgO–rich sandstones (>6 wt.%), relative to the average composition of the underlying Murray formation. We document consistent sedimentary and geochemical data sets showing that low–energy mudstones of the Jura member are associated with the K–rich endmember, and that high–energy cross–stratified sandstones of the Knockfarril Hill member are associated with the Mg–rich endmember, regardless of stratigraphic position. The Jura to Knockfarril Hill transition therefore marks a significant paleoenvironmental change, where a long–lived and comparatively quiescent lacustrine setting progressively changes into a more energetic fluvial setting, as a consequence of shoreline regression due to either increased sediment supply or lake–level drop.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D Multiresolution Velocity Model Fusion with Probability Graphical Models

ABSTRACT The variability in spatial resolution of seismic velocity models obtained via tomographic methodologies is attributed to many factors, including inversion strategies, ray-path coverage, and data integrity. Integration of such models, with distinct resolutions, is crucial during the refinement of community models, thereby enhancing the precision of ground-motion simulations. Toward this goal, we introduce the probability graphical model (PGM), combining velocity models with heterogeneous resolutions and nonuniform data point distributions. The PGM integrates data relations across varying resolution subdomains, enhancing detail within low-resolution (LR) domains by utilizing information and prior knowledge from high-resolution (HR) subdomains through a maximum posterior problem. Assessment of efficacy, utilizing both 2D and 3D velocity models—consisting of synthetic checkerboard models and a fault-zone model from Ridgecrest, California—demonstrates noteworthy improvements in accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art fusion techniques. Specifically, we find reductions of 30% and 44% in computed travel-time residuals for 2D and 3D models, respectively, as compared to conventional smoothing techniques. Unlike conventional methods, the PGM’s adaptive weight selection facilitates preserving and learning details from complex, nonuniform HR models and applies the enhancements to the LR background domain.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal equation of state of ice-VII revisited by single-crystal X-ray diffraction

Abstract Ice-VII is a high-pressure polymorph of H2O ice and an important mineral widely present in many planetary environments, such as in the interiors of large icy planetary bodies, within some cold subducted slabs, and in diamonds of deep origin as mineral inclusions. However, its stability at high pressures and high temperatures and thermoelastic properties are still under debate. In this study, we synthesized ice-VII single crystals in externally heated diamond-anvil cells and conducted single-crystal X-ray diffraction experiments up to 78 GPa and 1000 K to revisit the high-pressure and high-temperature phase stability and thermoelastic properties of ice-VII. No obvious unit-cell volume discontinuity or strain anomaly of the high-pressure ice was observed up to the highest achieved pressures and temperatures. The volume-pressure-temperature data were fitted to a high-temperature Birch-Murnaghan equation of state formalism, yielding bulk modulus KT0 = 21.0(4) GPa, its first pressure derivative KT0′ = 4.45(6), dK/dT = –0.009(4) GPa/K, and thermal expansion relation αT = 15(5) × 10–5 + 15(8) × 10–8 × (T – 300) K–1. The determined phase stability and thermoelastic properties of ice-VII can be used to model the inner structure of icy cosmic bodies. Combined with the thermoelastic properties of diamonds, we can reconstruct the isomeke P-T paths of ice-VII inclusions in diamond from depth, offering clues on the water-rich regions in Earth’s deep mantle and the formation environments of those diamonds.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model files to explore bedrock circulation depth and porosity in Copper Creek, Colorado

This data package contains integrated hydrological model input and output files for Copper Creek, Colorado (24 km2), a tributary of the East River located in the headwaters of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The model code is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model. The model contains a 100-m grid resolution and a daily timestep. The land surface model is dynamically linked to a three-dimensional groundwater flow model that allows for streamflow gaining and losing conditions. The groundwater model contains 12 model layers and extends 400 m below land surface. The original Copper Creek model was modified to contain geologic layers representing saprolite, shallow bedrock, and deep bedrock. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. For the shallow case, median flow depths occur in the shallow saprolite at depths <8 m, while the deep case promotes a median groundwater flow depth of 100 m. With this modeling framework we compare streamflow response to a plausible worst-case drought lasting up to five years. Streamflow metrics of analysis include average streamflow, fraction of stream network that is dry, no-flow duration, average groundwater flow to streams and time to recovery following the drought. Results and implications are presented in a paper submitted to Geophysical Research Letters titled, "The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought" by Rosemary WH. Carroll, Andrew H. Manning and Kenneth H Williams. A Readme.txt file provides instructions on how to download all model files and execute each model scenario. In addition to the GSFLOW output/prms/copper_drought.csv file containing daily basin water stores and fluxes (refer to GSFLOW manual) and the output/prms/copper_drought_statvar.dat file with output defined in the gsflow3.control file (refer to GSFLOW Manual), output files also include spatially distributed daily values of total evapotranspiration, canopy evaporation, precipitation, snowfall, infiltration, snow water equivalent, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, sublimation, soil moisture, contributing interflow, water table elevations, changes in groundwater storage, groundwater evapotranspiration, interbasin groundwater flow (limited to the alluvium below the stream outlet), and surface-groundwater exchanges within the river system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Ambient Noise Seismic Interferometry and Local and Teleseismic Earthquakes to Determine Crustal Thickness and Moho Structure of the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico Margin

Abstract The northwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico has undergone two episodes of continental rifting and collision and produced structural artifacts that are now buried under many kilometers of sediments, complicating investigations of the region. The deep sedimentary package precludes outcrops and points to a need for the application of seismic techniques, but low rates of seismicity in the region and sparse seismic monitoring limit the utility of traditional seismic methods. We therefore use diverse data to perform two‐dimensional seismic tomography across the dry land portion of the margin. Data are gleaned from teleseismic and regional earthquakes, postcritical SsPmp arrivals, and direct P wave energy identified with seismic interferometry that were recorded by a broadband, three‐component array and partially overlapping short‐period, vertical‐component array. The Pn and postcritical SsPmp phase help constrain the Moho discontinuity, which a previous receiver function study suggested was absent beneath the seaward portion of this transect. A high‐velocity body is observed in the crust at the same location as the Houston Magnetic Anomaly, possibly marking rocks from the Alleghenian continental assembly. The crust thins from NW to SE, indicating that extension occurred mostly to the south of the Ouachita orogeny. Our model indicates that the margin's sediment package reaches a maximum thickness of ~15 km at the coast and becomes unresolvably thin near the Llano Uplift.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global centroid moment tensor solutions in a heterogeneous earth: the CMT3D catalogue

SUMMARY For over 40 yr, the global centroid-moment tensor (GCMT) project has determined location and source parameters for globally recorded earthquakes larger than magnitude 5.0. The GCMT database remains a trusted staple for the geophysical community. Its point-source moment-tensor solutions are the result of inversions that model long-period observed seismic waveforms via normal-mode summation for a 1-D reference earth model, augmented by path corrections to capture 3-D variations in surface wave phase speeds, and to account for crustal structure. While this methodology remains essentially unchanged for the ongoing GCMT catalogue, source inversions based on waveform modelling in low-resolution 3-D earth models have revealed small but persistent biases in the standard modelling approach. Keeping pace with the increased capacity and demands of global tomography requires a revised catalogue of centroid-moment tensors (CMT), automatically and reproducibly computed using Green's functions from a state-of-the-art 3-D earth model. In this paper, we modify the current procedure for the full-waveform inversion of seismic traces for the six moment-tensor parameters, centroid latitude, longitude, depth and centroid time of global earthquakes. We take the GCMT solutions as a point of departure but update them to account for the effects of a heterogeneous earth, using the global 3-D wave speed model GLAD-M25. We generate synthetic seismograms from Green's functions computed by the spectral-element method in the 3-D model, select observed seismic data and remove their instrument response, process synthetic and observed data, select segments of observed and synthetic data based on similarity, and invert for new model parameters of the earthquake’s centroid location, time and moment tensor. The events in our new, preliminary database containing 9382 global event solutions, called CMT3D for ‘3-D centroid-moment tensors’, are on average 4 km shallower, about 1 s earlier, about 5 per cent larger in scalar moment, and more double-couple in nature than in the GCMT catalogue. We discuss in detail the geographical and statistical distributions of the updated solutions, and place them in the context of earlier work. We plan to disseminate our CMT3D solutions via the online ShakeMovie platform.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

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DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Fault Zone Resonance Modes Recorded by a Dense Seismic Array Across the San Jacinto Fault Zone at Blackburn Saddle

We present observations and modeling of spatial eigen-functions of resonating waves within fault zone waveguide, using data recorded on a dense seismic array across the San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ) in southern California. The array consists of 5-Hz geophones that cross the SJFZ with ~10-30 m spacing at the Blackburn Saddle near the Hemet Stepover. Wavefield snapshots after the S wave arrival are consistent for more than 50 near-fault events, suggesting that this pattern is controlled by the fault zone structure rather than source properties. Data from example event with high signal to noise ratio shows three main frequency peaks at ~1.3 Hz, ~2.0 Hz, and ~2.8 Hz in the amplitude spectra of resonance waves averaged over stations near the fault. The data are modeled with analytical expressions for eigen-functions of resonance waves in a low-velocity layer (fault zone) between two quarter-spaces. Using a grid search-based method, we investigate the possible width of the waveguide, location within the array, and shear wave velocities of the media that fit well the resonance signal at ~1.3 Hz. The results indicate a ~300 m wide damaged fault zone layer with ~65% S wave velocity reduction compared to the host rock. The SW edge of the low-velocity zone is near the mapped fault surface trace, indicating that the damage zone is asymmetrically located at the regionally faster NE crustal block. The imaging resolution of the fault zone structure can be improved by modeling fault zone resonance modes and trapped waves together.

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