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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the nature of large language models: A caution against anthropocentrism

Generative AI models garnered a large amount of public attention and speculation with the release of OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT in November of 2022. At least two opinion camps exist – one that is excited about the possibilities these models offer for fundamental changes to human tasks, and another that is highly concerned about the power these models seem to have – especially since the release of GPT-4, which was trained on multimodal data and has ~1.7 trillion (T) parameters. We evaluated some concerns regarding these models’ power by assessing GPT 3.5 using standard, normed, and validated cognitive and personality measures. These measures come from the tradition of psychometrics in experimental psychology and have a long history of providing valuable insights and predictive distinctions in humans. For this seedling project, we developed a battery of tests that allowed us to estimate the boundaries of some of these models’ capabilities, how stable those capabilities are over a short period of time, and how they compare to humans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Spectacular Viscoelastic Model Calibration for 828/D230/Alox Generated from Legacy Sandia Data

The nonlinear viscoelastic Spectacular model is calibrated to the thermo-mechanical behavior of 828/D230/Alox with an alox volume fraction of 20 %. Legacy experimental data from Sandia’s polymer properties database (PPD) is used to calibrate the model. Based on known densities of the epoxy 828/D230 and the alox filler, the alox volume fractions listed on the PPD were likely reported incorrectly. The alox volume fractions are recalculated here. Using the recalculated alox volume fractions, the PPD contains experimental data for 828/D230/Alox with alox volume fractions of 16 %, 24 %, and 33 %, so the thermo-mechanical behavior at 20 % alox volume fraction is estimated by interpolating between the bounding cases of of 16 % and 24 %. Because the Spectacularmodel can be fairly challenging to calibrate, the calibration procedure is described in detail. Several of the calibration steps involve inverse parameter identification, where an experiment is simulated and parameters are iteratively updated until the model response matches the experimental data. As the PPD does not fully describe all experimental procedures, the experimental simulations use assumed thermal and mechanical loading rates that are typical for the viscoelastic characterization of epoxies. Spectacular uses four independent relaxation functions related to volumetric (ƒ 1 ), shear (ƒ 2 ), thermal strain (ƒ 3 ), and thermal relaxations (ƒ 4 ). The previous SPEC model form, also known as the universal_polymer model, uses two independent relaxation functions related to volumetric and thermal relaxation (ƒ ν = ƒ 1 = ƒ 3 = ƒ 4 ) and shear relaxation (ƒ s = ƒ 2 ). The two constitutive choices are briefly evaluated here, where it is found that the four relaxation function approach of Spectacular was better suited for fitting the coefficient of thermal expansion during both heating and cooling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of Vegetation Canopy Architecture on Dynamics of Spatiotemporal Light Distribution and its Effect on Land-Biosphere-Atmosphere Fluxes of Energy, Carbon, and Water

The dynamic spatiotemporal distribution of light and micro climatic variables (wind speed, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, humidity, pressure, and air temperature) within the plant canopy as determined by the canopy architecture play a critical role in land-biosphere-atmosphere (LBA) photosynthetic carbon uptake, transpiratory water loss and energy partitioning. Vegetation models that include effects of sun and shade flecks, leaf temperature and energy balance partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes, and reduced turbulent mixing in dense vegetation canopies can accurately predict canopy performance, particularly its shaded leaves, which can constitute 80% of leaf area and contribute up to 50% of carbon update and 65% of water loss. However, current vegetation models with their bulk characterization of shaded leaves poorly represent the complex three dimensional (3D) canopy architecture are insufficient to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of shaded leaves. Here, we propose to employ an x-ray computed tomography (XCT) imaging technique in combination with an automated, high throughput, image processing pipeline (3DArch, to be developed) to obtain an explicit 3D triangulated surface mesh of a plant canopy (Fig 1). 3DArch would provide a much needed technological jump in 3D LBA modeling where computer generated artificial 3D models suffer from lack of high resolution detailed canopy architecture parameters. The 3D canopy surface mesh output from 3DArch is coupled with an explicit 3D forward ray tracing model (fastTracer) to obtain a high resolution representation of the dynamic spatiotemporal light environment within the canopy over the course of a day (Fig 1). The results from the light attenuation model are then coupled with a process based multi-scale bio-physical canopy and leaf model of photosynthesis (PlantGro) to get fluxes of carbon, water and energy at the leaf and canopy scale, in addition to estimating whole plant carbon uptake, and water loss. Our proposed model framework would be the first of its kind to provide a breakthrough capability in the field of process-based plant modeling that bridges the key technological gap in shaded leaf modeling through explicit representation of 3D canopy architecture. Computer generated artificial 3D model canopy simulations on grasses show that the canopy light distribution does not follow an exponential behavior as assumed in most 1D vegetation models, but rather exhibits a heterogeneous behavior, with a small but significant portion of interior canopy leaves experiencing peak light levels due to sun flecks while the rest of the canopy receives substantially lower light levels. These results indicate a bias in traditional models that overestimates shaded leaf contribution towards whole canopy photosynthesis by up to 15% and underestimate transpiration by up to 12% with an associated increase in sensible heat fluxes since photosynthesis, transpiration and energy partitioning are tightly coupled processes. However, these test results need to be validated using the 3D architecture obtained from a real plant imaged in 3D using 3DArch, rather than an artificial model plant. Our proposed model framework would allow us to identify inefficiencies in canopy light distribution and prescribe optimal canopy architectures (leaf optical properties, leaf area, leaf angles, row spacing, planting density, etc.) to traditional and genetic engineering based crop breeders, for maximizing target functions such as light use efficiency, water use efficiency, drought tolerance, crop yield, crop resilience etc., with important applications in biofuel crops such as sorghum, and switchgrass. Our model can also be applied for designing optimal canopy architecture that increase surface albedo as a mitigation strategy for global warming and projections of crop yield for future food and water security under climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generation of Data-Driven Expected Energy Models for Photovoltaic Systems

Although unique expected energy models can be generated for a given photovoltaic (PV) site, a standardized model is also needed to facilitate performance comparisons across fleets. Current standardized expected energy models for PV work well with sparse data, but they have demonstrated significant over-estimations, which impacts accurate diagnoses of field operations and maintenance issues. This research addresses this issue by using machine learning to develop a data-driven expected energy model that can more accurately generate inferences for energy production of PV systems. Irradiance and system capacity information was used from 172 sites across the United States to train a series of models using Lasso linear regression. The trained models generally perform better than the commonly used expected energy model from international standard (IEC 61724-1), with the two highest performing models ranging in model complexity from a third-order polynomial with 10 parameters (Radj2 = 0.994) to a simpler, second-order polynomial with 4 parameters (Radj2=0.993), the latter of which is subject to further evaluation. Subsequently, the trained models provide a more robust basis for identifying potential energy anomalies for operations and maintenance activities as well as informing planning-related financial assessments. We conclude with directions for future research, such as using splines to improve model continuity and better capture systems with low (≤1000 kW DC) capacity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operation-adversarial scenario generation

This paper proposes a modified conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) model to generate net load scenarios for power systems that are statistically credible, conditioned by given labels (e.g., seasons), and, at the same time, “stressful” to the system operations and dispatch decisions. The measure of stress used in this paper is based on the operating cost increases due to net load changes. The proposed operation-adversarial cGAN (OA-cGAN) internalizes a DC optimal power flow model and seeks to maximize the operating cost and achieve a worst-case data generation. The training and testing stages employed in the proposed OA-cGAN use historical day-ahead net load forecast errors and has been implemented for the realistic NYISO 11-zone system. In conclusion, our numerical experiments demonstrate that the generated operation-adversarial forecast errors lead to more cost-effective and reliable dispatch decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generative machine learning for detector response modeling with a conditional normalizing flow

In this paper, we explore the potential of generative machine learning models as an alternative to the computationally expensive Monte Carlo (MC) simulations commonly used by the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiments. Our objective is to develop a generative model capable of efficiently simulating detector responses for specific particle observables, focusing on the correlations between detector responses of different particles in the same event and accommodating asymmetric detector responses. Here, we present a conditional normalizing flow model ($\mathcal{CNF}$) based on a chain of Masked Autoregressive Flows, which effectively incorporates conditional variables and models high-dimensional density distributions. We assess the performance of the $\mathcal{CNF}$ model using a simulated sample of Higgs boson decaying to diphoton events at the LHC. We create reconstruction-level observables using a smearing technique. We show that conditional normalizing flows can accurately model complex detector responses and their correlation. This method can potentially reduce the computational burden associated with generating large numbers of simulated events while ensuring that the generated events meet the requirements for data analyses. We make our code available at https://github.com/allixu/normalizing_flow_for_detector_response

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preventative studies should begin now for detecting AI-generated microscopy images

With the rapid progress made in artificial intelligence (AI), text, images, and even videos that are often indistinguishable from human-created content can now be easily generated using new AI models. In this essay, we call attention to the potential misuse of advanced AI models to generate microscopy images, as it could challenge reviewers and fraud hunters in an unprecedented way. This concern is more than hypothetical because relevant open-sourced implementations and datasets are widely available. As a result, we urge that preventative studies on methods to detect microscopy image fabrication should begin now before potential misconduct materializes and becomes widespread.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Systematic Framework for Tuning Open-Source Multifunctional IBR Models To Emulate OEM Black-Box Fault Dynamics

This paper presents a systematic framework to tune a generic IBR EMT model to match with an OEM provided balckbox inverter model based on the fault current responses. The key learnings and findings are summarized as follows: The tunable key parameters include inner control loops and current limiters to align the fault current magnitude, sequence content, and phase trajectories with the OEM models across diverse fault type and locations. The tuned model's fidelity is validated through comparative analysis with an OEM blackbox model, assessing both the fault current response and the responses of multiple relay elements. The results demonstrate the tuned generic model can trigger relay decision logic that is identical or near identical to that of the OEM model, thus generating very good match model for fault studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass2021 Computational Frontier White Paper: Cosmological Simulations and Modeling

Powerful new observational facilities will come online over the next decade, enabling a number of discovery opportunities in the "Cosmic Frontier", which targets understanding of the physics of the early universe, dark matter and dark energy, and cosmological probes of fundamental physics, such as neutrino masses and modifications of Einstein gravity. Synergies between different experiments will be leveraged to present new classes of cosmic probes as well as to minimize systematic biases present in individual surveys. Success of this observational program requires actively pairing it with a well-matched state-of-the-art simulation and modeling effort. Next-generation cosmological modeling will increasingly focus on physically rich simulations able to model outputs of sky surveys spanning multiple wavebands. These simulations will have unprecedented resolution, volume coverage, and must deliver guaranteed high-fidelity results for individual surveys as well as for the cross-correlations across different surveys. The needed advances are as follows: (1) Development of scientifically rich and broadly-scoped simulations, which capture the relevant physics and correlations between probes (2) Accurate translation of simulation results into realistic image or spectral data to be directly compared with observations (3) Improved emulators and/or data-driven methods serving as surrogates for expensive simulations, constructed from a finite set of full-physics simulations (4) Detailed and transparent verification and validation programs for both simulations and analysis tools. (Abridged)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models

For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO 2 ) is 1.8°C to 5.6°C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s. Meanwhile, the range of transient climate response (TCR, the surface temperature warming around the time of CO 2 doubling in a 1% per year CO 2 increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7°C (1.3°C to 3.0°C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

“Gray Zone” Simulations Using a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Generating accurate weather forecasts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties is challenging in many geographical regions, oftentimes due to complex topography or horizontal variability in, for example, land characteristics. While recent advances in high-performance computing platforms have led to an increase in the spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the horizontal gridcell spacing (Δ x ) of many regional-scale NWP models currently fall within or are beginning to approach the gray zone (i.e., Δ x ≈ 100–1000 m). At these gridcell spacings, three-dimensional (3D) effects are important, as the most energetic turbulent eddies are neither fully parameterized (as in traditional mesoscale simulations) nor fully resolved [as in traditional large-eddy simulations (LES)]. In light of this modeling challenge, we have implemented a 3D PBL parameterization for high-resolution mesoscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The PBL scheme, which is based on the algebraic model developed by Mellor and Yamada, accounts for the 3D effects of turbulence by calculating explicitly the momentum, heat, and moisture flux divergences in addition to the turbulent kinetic energy. In this study, we present results from idealized simulations in the gray zone that illustrate the benefit of using a fully consistent turbulence closure framework under convective conditions. While the 3D PBL scheme reproduces the evolution of convective features more appropriately than the traditional 1D PBL scheme, we highlight the need to improve the turbulent length scale formulation. Significance Statement The spatial resolution of weather models continues to increase at a rapid rate in accordance with the enhancement of computing power. As a result, smaller-scale atmospheric features become more explicitly resolved. However, most numerical models still ignore the impact of horizontal weather variations on boundary layer flows, which becomes more important at these smaller spatial scales. To address this issue, we have implemented a new modeling approach, using fundamental principles, which accounts for horizontal variability. Our results show that including three-dimensional effects of turbulence is necessary to achieve realistic boundary layer characteristics. This novel technique may be useful for many applications including complex terrain flows, pollutant dispersion, and surface–atmosphere interaction studies.

Juliano, Timothy W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for modeling water quality

A system, method, device and computer-readable medium for creating an ensemble model of water quality. The ensemble model is generated by determining a set of optimal component models for spectral regions of a body of water, and combining the optimal models. The optimal models can be based on remote sensing data, including satellite imagery. A K-fold partition approach or a global approach can be used to determine the optimal component models, and the optimal component models can be combined through spectral space partition rules to generate an ensemble model of water quality. The ensemble model not only has improved water quality prediction ability, but also has strong spatial and temporal extensibility. The spatial and temporal extensibility of the ensemble model is fundamentally important and desirable for long-term and large-scale remote sensing monitoring and assessment of water quality.

Liu, Hongxing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Assisted HPC Workload Trace Generation for Leadership Scale Storage Systems

Monitoring and analyzing a wide range of I/O activities in an HPC cluster is important in maintaining mission-critical performance in a large-scale, multi-user, parallel storage system. Center-wide I/O traces can provide high-level information and fine-grained activities per application or per user running in the system. Studying such large-scale traces can provide helpful insights into the system. It can be used to develop predictive methods for making predictive decisions, adjusting scheduling policies, or providing decisions for the design of next-generation systems. However, sharing real-world I/O traces to expedite such research efforts leaves a few concerns; i) the cost of sharing the large traces is expensive due to this large size, and ii) privacy concern is an issue.We address such issues by building an end-to-end machine learn- ing (ML) workflow that can generate I/O traces for large-scale HPC applications. We leverage ML based feature selection and gener- ative models for I/O trace generation. The generative models are trained on I/O traces collected by the darshan I/O characterization tool over a period of one year. We present a two-step generation process consisting of two deep-learning models, called the feature generator and the trace generator. The combination of two-step generative models provides robustness by reducing the bias of the model and accounting for the stochastic nature of the I/O traces across different runs of an application. We evaluate the performance of the generative models and show that the two-step model can generate time-series I/O traces with less than 20% root mean square error.

Paul, Arnab↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Accurate Modeling of Converter Interfaced Generation (CIG) on a Practical Bulk Power System

With increased penetration of converter interfaced generation (CIG) in power systems, it becomes imperative to adequately model them in both steady-state and dynamic simulations. There are several modeling approaches and simulation platforms for CIG. In addition, it is noted that suitability of modeling approaches and models is also dependent on the system conditions. However, their suitability has yet to be systematically analyzed, and this becomes a challenge in the industry without a systemic method. To tackle these challenges, in this paper, we first develop a methodology for identifying the maximum penetration of aggregated rooftop sources that can be represented as negative loads in both the steady state and dynamic analysis. Then we verify the suitability of positive-sequence performance-based model and detailed electromagnetic transient (EMT) model for utility-scale PV plants under different fault conditions. Based on the results, we perform dynamic simulations on a large practical system with both positive-sequence transient stability(TS) and EMT-TS hybrid simulation. Our study shows that positive-sequence performance based PV plant model is more suitable for study cases with faults relatively far away from the point of connection, and that positive-sequence models and TS simulation approach can produce comparable results with reference to EMT-TS hybrid simulation for normally-cleared single-line-to-ground faults, but the inadequacy of positive-sequence based model and simulation approach becomes obvious for prolonged-tripping of unbalanced faults in proximity of the PV plants.

Huang, Qiuhua↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Parameter Estimation with Physics-based Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

Accurate estimation of dynamic parameters of gen-erators is crucial to building a reliable model for dynamical studies and reliable operation of the power system. This paper develops a physics-based neural ordinary differential equations (ODE) approach to learn the parameters of generator dynamic model using phasor measurement units (PMU) data. We design a physics-based neural network to represent the swing equations of the power system dynamics. A loss function is defined as the difference between dynamic simulation results from the physics-based neural networks and pseudo PMU measurements. The parameters of generator dynamic model are iteratively updated using the neural ODEs and the adjoint method. By exploiting the mini-batch scheme in neural ODE training, the parameter estimation performance is significantly improved. Numerical study results on a 3-machine 9-bus system show that the proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art baseline method in both computation time and dynamic parameter estimation accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Alchemy: A Model-Based Approach for 2D to 3D Autonomous Nuclear System Design

Engineering design of nuclear power plant (NPP) piping and equipment systems frequently bypasses crucial 2D system planning, instead moving straight to 3D modeling. This often leads to designs that exceed building envelope constraints, forcing expensive and time-consuming redesigns. When 2D modeling is employed, it typically involves labor-intensive manual workflows that convert 2D drawings into 3D models, resulting in inefficiencies and errors across design iterations. These workflows further suffer from poor software interoperability and dependence on proprietary software ecosystems, thereby contributing to schedule delays and cost overruns. This paper presents Alchemy, an autonomous framework that transforms 2D system definitions into Industry Foundation Classes (IFC)-compliant 3D building information models (BIMs) for expediting nuclear facility design at the conceptual preliminary phase. Using a model-based approach, the framework treats the 2D system diagram as the central reference model employed to automatically generate all subsequent outputs, ensuring consistency between the system definition and the resulting physical design. A web-based interface enables engineers to define hierarchical system topologies including associated equipment, geometric properties, and connectivity requirements. A two-phase equipment layout optimization algorithm automatically computes collision-free spatial configurations within predefined building envelopes. An artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted pipe routing module then generates orthogonal, collision-free routing paths, allowing the user to select either an A* search-based method or an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO)-based method. All outputs are authored natively in IFC format, relying on open-source technologies and standardized formats in order to ensure extensibility and eliminate proprietary software dependencies. The proposed framework is validated on two representative pressurized-water reactor (PWR)-based case studies, for which it autonomously generates IFC-compliant 3D models in minutes, drastically reducing workflows that typically require hours of manual effort. The generated model demonstrates topologically correct equipment placement, physically plausible spatial relationships, and collision-free pipe routing consistent with known PWR loop configurations. This work represents a foundational step toward digital engineering for nuclear facility preliminary design, with future ongoing development targeting design code compliance and expanded system complexity.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗