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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Explained: Maintaining a Reliable Future Grid with More Wind and Solar

Since the early 2000s, maintaining grid reliability has become more complex due to a variety of factors, including the changing generation mix, the creation of wholesale energy markets, and a growing number of extreme weather events. Parts of the U.S. grid are already operating with significant amounts of wind and solar generation - with 2022 annual wind and solar generation in the range of 25% to 40%. Even without considering the effects of extreme weather, maintaining reliability will require new capacity to address both growth in electric demand and retiring capacity. Based on the 2022 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Long-Term Reliability Assessment, the combination of both growth in peak demand and retirements suggests a need for more than 100 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity by 2032. In general, there are a five categories of resources that are expected to be deployed and used to meet the challenge of maintaining an adequate source of supply in the coming decades: new wind and solar resources (accounting for their reliability contributions), energy storage, demand response resources, expanded transmission, and continued use of thermal generators.

power grid↗
DOE OSTI2024

Explained: Causes of Three Recent Major Blackouts and What Is Being Done in Response

While the power grid is designed to have an adequate supply of electricity generating capacity under hot and cold conditions well above or below average, weather in recent years has approached the bounds of anticipated conditions, in both magnitude and duration. Extreme weather can result in unanticipated levels of electricity demand and correlated power plant outages driven by extreme temperatures. How power system planners account for the changing role of wind and solar also plays an important role in the power grid's ability to supply enough electricity during extreme weather. In response to recent significant outages, power system planners have been focusing on ensuring methods to evaluate reliability during periods of "net peak demand" consider availability of renewable resources and capture the impact of extreme weather on power plants of all types. In particular, there is significant emphasis on the ability of natural gas-fueled power plants to operate during periods of extreme cold temperatures. The impact of extreme weather on the need to change planning processes is demonstrated in this fact sheet that discusses three significant outages that occurred in recent years.

power grid↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable Graph Learning for Particle Accelerator Operations

Particle accelerators are vital tools in physics, medicine, and industry, requiring precise tuning to ensure optimal beam performance. However, real-world deviations from idealized simulations make beam tuning a time-consuming and error-prone process. In this work, we propose an explanation-driven framework for providing actionable insight into beamline operations, with a focus on the injector beamline at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). We represent beamline configurations as heterogeneous graphs, where setting nodes represent elements that human operators can actively adjust during beam tuning, and reading nodes passively provide diagnostic feedback. To identify the most influential setting nodes responsible for differences between any two beamline configurations, our approach first predicts the resulting changes in reading nodes caused by variations in settings, and then learns importance scores that capture the joint influence of multiple setting nodes. Experimental results on real-world CEBAF injector data demonstrate the framework’s ability to generate interpretable insights that can assist human operators in beamline tuning and reduce operational overhead.

Wang, Song [Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA↗
DOE OSTI2015

The eejj excess signal at the LHC and constraints on leptogenesis

We review the non-supersymmetric (Extended) Left-Right Symmetric Models (LRSM) and low energy E{sub 6}-based models to investigate if they can explain both the recently detected excess eejj signal at CMS and leptogenesis. The eejj excess can be explained from the decay of the right-handed gauge bosons (W{sub R}) with mass ∼ TeV in certain variants of the LRSM (with g{sub L}≠g{sub R}). However such scenarios can not accommodate high-scale leptogenesis. Other attempts have been made to explain leptogenesis while keeping the W{sub R} mass almost within the reach of the LHC by considering the resonant leptogenesis scenario in the context of the LRSM for relatively large Yukawa couplings. However, certain lepton number violating scattering processes involving the right-handed Higgs triplet and the right-handed neutrinos can stay in equilibrium till the electroweak phase transition and can washout the lepton asymmetry generated in the resonant leptogenesis scenario for mass range of W{sub R} as indicated by the CMS excess signal. Thus in such a scenario one needs to invoke post-sphaleron baryogenesis to explain the observed baryon asymmetry of the universe. Next, we consider three effective low energy subgroups of the superstring inspired E{sub 6} model having a number of additional exotic fermions which provides a rich phenomenology to be explored. We however find that these three effective low energy subgroups of E{sub 6} too cannot explain both the eejj excess signal and leptogenesis simultaneously.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distinct assembly mechanisms underlie similar biogeographical patterns of rare and abundant bacteria in Tibetan Plateau grassland soils

Rare biosphere represents the majority of Earth's biodiversity and performs vital ecological functions, yet little is known about its biogeographical patterns and community assembly processes in terrestrial ecosystems. Herein, we investigated the community composition and phylogeny of rare (relative abundance <0.1%) and abundant (>1%) bacteria in dryland grassland soils on the Tibetan Plateau. Results revealed similar biogeographical patterns of rare and abundant bacteria at both compositional and phylogenetic levels, but rare subcommunity was more heavily influenced by stochasticity (72%) than the abundant (57%). The compositional variation of rare bacteria was less explained by environmental factors (41%) than that of the abundant (80%), while the phylogeny of rare bacteria (36%) was more explained than that of the abundant (29%). The phylogeny of rare bacteria was equally explained by local factors (soil and vegetation) and geospatial distance (11.5% and 11.9% respectively), while that of the abundant was more explained by geospatial distance (22.1%) than local factors (11.3%). Furthermore, a substantially tighter connection between the community phylogeny and composition was observed in rare (R(2) = 0.65) than in abundant bacteria (R(2) = 0.08). Our study provides novel insights into the assembly processes and biographical patterns of rare and abundant bacteria in dryland soils.

Ji, Mukan↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Importance of Preventive Feedback: Inference from Observations of the Stellar Masses and Metallicities of Milky Way Dwarf Galaxies

Dwarf galaxies are known to have remarkably low star formation efficiency due to strong feedback. Adopting the dwarf galaxies of the Milky Way (MW) as a laboratory, we explore a flexible semi-analytic galaxy formation model to understand how the feedback processes shape the satellite galaxies of the MW. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo, we exhaustively search a large parameter space of the model and rigorously show that the general wisdom of strong outflows as the primary feedback mechanism cannot simultaneously explain the stellar mass function and the mass–metallicity relation of the MW satellites. An extended model that assumes that a fraction of baryons is prevented from collapsing into low-mass halos in the first place can be accurately constrained to simultaneously reproduce those observations. The inference suggests that two different physical mechanisms are needed to explain the two different data sets. In particular, moderate outflows with weak halo mass dependence are needed to explain the mass–metallicity relation, and prevention of baryons falling into shallow gravitational potentials of low-mass halos (e.g., “pre-heating”) is needed to explain the low stellar mass fraction for a given subhalo mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Functional approach to exploring climatic and landscape controls on runoff generation: 2 Timing of runoff storm response

Abstract Hortonian overland flow, Dunne overland flow, and subsurface stormflow are the three most dominant mechanisms contributing to both the volume and timing of streamflow in headwater catchments. In this paper, guided by the Dunne diagram, we explore the impacts of climate, soil, and topography on estimated probability distributions of the travel times of each of these three runoff components. In each case, these are expressed in terms of the Connected Instantaneous Response Functions (CIRF) and account for the dynamics of their individual partial effective contributing areas that retain the connectivity to the outlet (instead of the whole catchment area). A spatially distributed hydrological model is used to derive the CIRFs numerically under multiple combinations of climate, soil, and topographic properties. The mean travel times and dimensionless forms of the CIRFs (i.e., scaled by their respective mean travel times) are used to examine both advective and dispersive aspects of catchment's runoff routing response. It is found that the CIRFs, upon nondimensionalization, collapsed to common characteristic shapes, which could be explained in terms of the relative contributions of hillslope and channel network flows, and the size of runoff contributing areas. The contributing areas, particularly for the Dunne overland flow, are themselves found to be governed by the competition between drainage of and recharge to the water table, and could be explained by a dimensionless drainage index which quantifies this competition. The study also reveals simple indicators based on landscape properties that can explain the magnitude of travel times in different catchments.

Li, Hong‐Yi↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Reassessment of the Integrated Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Surface Chlorophyll in the Western Subtropical North Atlantic

The impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll concentration is assessed in the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during 1998–2011. Previous studies in this area focused on individual cyclones and gave mixed results regarding the importance of tropical cyclone-induced mixing for changes in surface chlorophyll. Using a more integrated and comprehensive approach that includes quantification of cyclone-induced changes in mixed layer depth, here it is shown that accumulated cyclone energy explains 22% of the interannual variability in seasonally-averaged (June–November) chlorophyll concentration in the western subtropical North Atlantic, after removing the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The variance explained by tropical cyclones is thus about 70% of that explained by the NAO, which has well-known impacts in this region. It is therefore likely that tropical cyclones contribute significantly to interannual variations of primary productivity in the western subtropical North Atlantic during the hurricane season.

chlorophyll↗
DOE OSTI2011

New Perspectives for QCD Physics at the LHC

I review a number of topics where conventional wisdom relevant to hadron physics at the LHC has been challenged. For example, the initial–state and final–state interactions of the quarks and gluons entering perturbative QCD hard–scattering subprocesses lead to the breakdown of traditional concepts of factorization and universality for transverse–momentum–dependent observables at leading twist. The soft–gluon rescattering effects, which are associated with the Wilson line of the propagating partons, also lead to Bjorken–scaling single–spin asymmetries, diffractive deep inelastic scattering, the breakdown of the Lam–Tung leading–twist relation in Drell–Yan reactions, as well as nuclear shadowing. The Gribov–Glauber theory applied to the antishadowing domain predicts that nuclear structure functions depend on the flavor quantum numbers of each quark and antiquark, thus explaining the anomalous nuclear dependence recently observed in deep–inelastic neutrino scattering. Surprisingly, isolated hadrons can be produced at large transverse momentum directly within a hard higher–twist QCD subprocess, rather than from jet fragmentation. The rate is predicted to be significant, even at the LHC. Such “direct” processes can explain the observed deviations from perturbative QCD predictions in measurements of inclusive hadron cross sections at fixed x T = 2p T /√ s , as well as the “baryon anomaly”, the anomalously large proton–to–pion ratio seen in high centrality heavy–ion collisions at RHIC. The intrinsic charm contribution to the proton structure function at high x can explain the large rate for high p T photon plus charm–jet events observed by D 0 at the Tevatron. Intrinsic charm and bottom distributions also imply anomalously large production of charm and bottom jets at high p T at the LHC, as well as a novel mechanism for Higgs and Z 0 production at high x F . Other novel features of QCD are discussed, including the consequences of confinement for quark and gluon condensates and the implications for the QCD contribution to the cosmological constant. Furthermore, the light–front wavefunctions derived in AdS/QCD can be used to calculate jet hadronization at the amplitude level. I also note that the elimination of the renormalization scale ambiguity for the QCD coupling using the scheme–independent BLM method will greatly improve the precision of QCD predictions and thus greatly increase the sensitivity of searches for new physics at the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2012

THE STRUCTURE AND EMISSION MODEL OF THE RELATIVISTIC JET IN THE QUASAR 3C 279 INFERRED FROM RADIO TO HIGH-ENERGY {gamma}-RAY OBSERVATIONS IN 2008-2010

We present time-resolved broadband observations of the quasar 3C 279 obtained from multi-wavelength campaigns conducted during the first two years of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope mission. While investigating the previously reported {gamma}-ray/optical flare accompanied by a change in optical polarization, we found that the optical emission appears to be delayed with respect to the {gamma}-ray emission by about 10 days. X-ray observations reveal a pair of 'isolated' flares separated by {approx}90 days, with only weak {gamma}-ray/optical counterparts. The spectral structure measured by Spitzer reveals a synchrotron component peaking in the mid-infrared band with a sharp break at the far-infrared band during the {gamma}-ray flare, while the peak appears in the millimeter (mm)/submillimeter (sub-mm) band in the low state. Selected spectral energy distributions are fitted with leptonic models including Comptonization of external radiation produced in a dusty torus or the broad-line region. Adopting the interpretation of the polarization swing involving propagation of the emitting region along a curved trajectory, we can explain the evolution of the broadband spectra during the {gamma}-ray flaring event by a shift of its location from {approx}1 pc to {approx}4 pc from the central black hole. On the other hand, if the {gamma}-ray flare is generated instead at sub-pc distance from the central black hole, the far-infrared break can be explained by synchrotron self-absorption. We also model the low spectral state, dominated by the mm/sub-mm peaking synchrotron component, and suggest that the corresponding inverse-Compton component explains the steady X-ray emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

PROBING THE COSMIC X-RAY AND MeV GAMMA-RAY BACKGROUND RADIATION THROUGH THE ANISOTROPY

While the cosmic soft X-ray background is very likely to originate from individual Seyfert galaxies, the origin of the cosmic hard X-ray and MeV gamma-ray background is not fully understood. It is expected that Seyferts including Compton thick population may explain the cosmic hard X-ray background. At MeV energy range, Seyferts having non-thermal electrons in coronae above accretion disks or MeV blazars may explain the background radiation. We propose that future measurements of the angular power spectra of anisotropy of the cosmic X-ray and MeV gamma-ray backgrounds will be key to deciphering these backgrounds and the evolution of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). As AGNs trace the cosmic large-scale structure, spatial clustering of AGNs exists. We show that e-ROSITA will clearly detect the correlation signal of unresolved Seyferts at 0.5-2 keV and 2-10 keV bands and will be able to measure the bias parameter of AGNs at both bands. Once future hard X-ray all sky satellites achieve a sensitivity better than 10{sup –12} erg cm{sup –2} s{sup –1} at 10-30 keV or 30-50 keV—although this is beyond the sensitivities of current hard X-ray all sky monitors—angular power spectra will allow us to independently investigate the fraction of Compton-thick AGNs in all Seyferts. We also find that the expected angular power spectra of Seyferts and blazars in the MeV range are different by about an order of magnitude, where the Poisson term, so-called shot noise, is dominant. Current and future MeV instruments will clearly disentangle the origin of the MeV gamma-ray background through the angular power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Traits drive global wood decomposition rates more than climate

Wood decomposition is a major component of the global carbon cycle. Decomposition rates vary across climate gradients, which is thought to reflect the effects of temperature and moisture on the metabolic kinetics of decomposers. However, decomposition rates also vary with wood traits, which may reflect the influence of stoichiometry on decomposer metabolism as well as geometry relating the surface areas that decomposers colonize with the volumes they consume. In this paper, we combined metabolic and geometric scaling theories to formalize hypotheses regarding the drivers of wood decomposition rates, and assessed these hypotheses using a global compilation of data on climate, wood traits, and wood decomposition rates. Our results are consistent with predictions from both metabolic and geometric scaling theories. Approximately half of the global variation in decomposition rates was explained by wood traits (nitrogen content and diameter), whereas only a fifth was explained by climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity). These results indicate that global variation in wood decomposition rates is best explained by stoichiometric and geometric wood traits. Our findings suggest that inclusion of wood traits in global carbon cycle models can improve predictions of carbon fluxes from wood decomposition.

Hu, Zhenhong↗
DOE OSTI2018

On the Use of Ocean Dynamic Temperature for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting

Sea surface temperature (SST) and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) are metrics used to incorporate the ocean's influence on hurricane intensification in the National Hurricane Center's Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). While both SST and TCHP serve as useful measures of the upper-ocean heat content, they do not accurately represent ocean stratification effects. Here we show that replacing SST in the SHIPS framework with a dynamic temperature (Tdy), which accounts for the oceanic negative feedback to the hurricane's intensity arising from storm-induced vertical mixing and sea-surface cooling, improves the model performance. While the model with SST and TCHP explains nearly 41% of the variance in 36-hr intensity changes, replacing SST with Tdy increases the variance explained to nearly 44%. Our results suggest that representation of the oceanic feedback, even through relatively simple formulations such as Tdy, may improve the performance of statistical hurricane intensity prediction models such as SHIPS.

Balaguru, Karthik↗
DOE OSTI2018

Secondary organic aerosol formation from ambient air in an oxidation flow reactor in central Amazonia

Abstract. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from ambient air was studied using an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) coupled to an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) during both the wet and dry seasons at the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign. Measurements were made at two sites downwind of the city of Manaus, Brazil. Ambient air was oxidized in the OFR using variable concentrations of either OH or O3, over ranges from hours to days (O3) or weeks (OH) of equivalent atmospheric aging. The amount of SOA formed in the OFR ranged from 0 to as much as 10 µg m−3, depending on the amount of SOA precursor gases in ambient air. Typically, more SOA was formed during nighttime than daytime, and more from OH than from O3 oxidation. SOA yields of individual organic precursors under OFR conditions were measured by standard addition into ambient air and were confirmed to be consistent with published environmental chamber-derived SOA yields. Positive matrix factorization of organic aerosol (OA) after OH oxidation showed formation of typical oxidized OA factors and a loss of primary OA factors as OH aging increased. After OH oxidation in the OFR, the hygroscopicity of the OA increased with increasing elemental O:C up to O:C∼1.0, and then decreased as O:C increased further. Possible reasons for this decrease are discussed. The measured SOA formation was compared to the amount predicted from the concentrations of measured ambient SOA precursors and their SOA yields. While measured ambient precursors were sufficient to explain the amount of SOA formed from O3, they could only explain 10–50 % of the SOA formed from OH. This is consistent with previous OFR studies, which showed that typically unmeasured semivolatile and intermediate volatility gases (that tend to lack C=C bonds) are present in ambient air and can explain such additional SOA formation. To investigate the sources of the unmeasured SOA-forming gases during this campaign, multilinear regression analysis was performed between measured SOA formation and the concentration of gas-phase tracers representing different precursor sources. The majority of SOA-forming gases present during both seasons were of biogenic origin. Urban sources also contributed substantially in both seasons, while biomass burning sources were more important during the dry season. This study enables a better understanding of SOA formation in environments with diverse emission sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying the relative contribution of factors to household vehicle miles of travel

Household vehicle miles of travel (VMT) has been exhibiting a steady growth in post-recession years in the United States and has reached record levels in 2017. With transportation accounting for 27 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, planning professionals are increasingly seeking ways to curb vehicular travel to advance sustainable, vibrant, and healthy communities. Although there is considerable understanding of the various factors that influence household vehicular travel, there is little knowledge of their relative contribution to explaining variance in household VMT. This paper presents a holistic analysis to identify the relative contribution of socio-economic and demographic characteristics, built environment attributes, residential self-selection effects, and social and spatial dependency effects in explaining household VMT production. The modeling framework employs a simultaneous equations model of residential location (density) choice and household VMT generation. The analysis is performed using household travel survey data from the New York metropolitan region. Model results showed insignificant spatial dependency effects, with socio-demographic variables explaining 33 percent, density (as a key measure of built environment attributes) explaining 12 percent, and self-selection effects explaining 11 percent of the total variance in the logarithm of household VMT. The remaining 44 percent remains unexplained and attributable to omitted variables and unobserved idiosyncratic factors, calling for further research in this domain to better understand the relative contribution of various drivers of household VMT.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

50 years of CP violation — What have we learned?

Early after the discovery of CP violation, the explanation of how the Standard Model of particle physics could allow CP violation was quickly given, but it took many years for the original observation to be unequivocally explained on that basis. It was also proposed that this observation opened up the possibility that we could now explain the fact that the universe is made of matter. Remarkably, 50 years later we have no evidence in particle physics that there is any CP violation except that of the Kobayashi Maskawa mechanism of the standard model. Yet we fail completely to explain the baryon asymmetry of the Universe through that mechanism. After reviewing the main points in the history I describe the present experimental attempts to find CP violation beyond the standard model, and explain the theoretical attempts to explain the matter in the Universe.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗