SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “expansion cost”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 559 records · Page 31

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Convergent Protocols for Computing Protein–Ligand Interaction Energies Using Fragment-Based Quantum Chemistry

Fragment-based quantum chemistry methods offer a way to sidestep the steep nonlinear scaling of electronic structure calculations so that large molecular systems can be investigated using high-level methods. Here, we use fragmentation to compute protein–ligand interaction energies in systems with several thousand atoms, using a new software platform for managing fragment-based calculations that implements a screened many-body expansion. Convergence tests using a minimal-basis semiempirical method (HF-3c) indicate that two-body calculations, with single-residue fragments and simple hydrogen caps, are sufficient to reproduce interaction energies obtained using conventional supramolecular electronic structure calculations, to within 1 kcal/mol at about 1% of the computational cost. We also demonstrate that the HF-3c results are illustrative of trends obtained with density functional theory in basis sets up to augmented quadruple-ζ quality. Strategic deployment of fragmentation facilitates the use of converged biomolecular model systems alongside high-quality electronic structure methods and basis sets, bringing ab initio quantum chemistry to systems of hitherto unimaginable size. This will be useful for generation of high-quality training data for machine learning applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Automated Weld Quality Monitoring and Control

Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) is a critical process in the automotive industry, valued for its cost-effectiveness, short cycle time, and robustness. However, achieving consistent high-quality joints remains challenging due to the complex interplay of various factors, like materials, processes, and manufacturing uncertainties, etc. Under the collaborative project between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and General Motors (GM), we have developed a robust and expansible machine learning (ML) framework aimed at enhancing quality control in RSW. By harnessing the power of machine learning, we have developed the ability to ensure every aspect of the welding process, from the initial process design stage to the final weld joint quality. The framework operates by analyzing a variety of data streams, including in-line process signals, process parameters, materials, and postprocessed weld joint data. Through this analysis, the models have been trained to detect deviations from optimal quality standards, leveraging their ability to identify signature data patterns and anomalies within in-line signals and construct complex correlations between these signals and weld quality parameters. Meanwhile, the machine learning framework is designed to adapt to a variety of materials, including high strength steels and aluminum alloys, etc. Its flexible architecture facilitates the incorporation of diverse data sources and features, enabling precise modeling and prediction across a broad range of material properties and weld quality variables. The expansible ML frameworks represent a promising transformation in weld quality monitoring and control, empowering industry to achieve high levels of efficiency, consistency, and reliability in manufacturing.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Automated Weld Quality Monitoring and Control

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1981

Techniques for increasing the efficiency of Earth gravity calculations for precision orbit determination

Two techniques were analyzed. The first is a representation using Chebyshev expansions in three-dimensional cells. The second technique employs a temporary file for storing the components of the nonspherical gravity force. Computer storage requirements and relative CPU time requirements are presented. The Chebyshev gravity representation can provide a significant reduction in CPU time in precision orbit calculations, but at the cost of a large amount of direct-access storage space, which is required for a global model.

Smith, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Advanced LOX/H sub 2 engine technologies for future OTVs

The optimization methods and trade studies which were used to define a 1980 state-of-the-art design of orbital transfer vehicles are summarized. The advanced thrust chamber, turbomachinery, and engine power cycle technologies recommended for development and verification during the 1980's are discussed. The state-of-the-art design serves as one of the reference points for evaluation of the advanced technology concepts. A second reference point is provided by the 1960 state-of-the-art RL-10 engine. Advanced heat energy extraction concepts in the combustor and injector are presented that will permit the high chamber pressures expected of the advanced expander cycle engine concept. Advanced turbomachinery concepts are selected that will help utilize efficiently the heat energy extracted in the thrust chamber and aid in uprating chamber pressures to values five times those realized with 1960 to 1980 technologies. The higher chamber pressure benefits are maximized with nozzle concepts that will package within a short retracted length and extend to the very high expansion area ratios required for specific impulse values significantly higher than those now realized by operational systems. Control system component concepts studied will allow utilization of the high turbine drive energy levels in a reliable repeatable manner that will reduce program risk and enhance overall space transportation system mission life cycle cost.

Glass, J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Compact High-Efficiency Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine for Mars Interplanetary Missions

NASA has successfully test fired a novel and compact liquid propulsion system known as a Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine. This is a specially designed ring-shaped thrust chamber that leverages additive manufacturing techniques and novel alloys such as GRCop-42 and GRX-810. The extreme combustion event, known as a detonation, reduces the combustion chamber length requirements down to a few inches while equivalent constant pressure rocket thrust chambers are on the order of feet. This is primarily due to rapid completion of combustion by the high-pressure detonation, an order of magnitude faster than deflagration combustion. In addition, the ring shape allows for rapid expansion of the combustion products. Depending on the thrust class and design supersonic area ratio, the full RDRE can be anywhere from 10% to 50% shorter than a traditional liquid rocket assuming the same exit diameter but is dependent on a number of design assumptions. This may enable substantial mass savings, cost savings, and broader design trade space for various mission architectures. Finally, the engine system has potential for higher Isp at identical average chamber pressure, which is currently being assessed by NASA. Experimental data obtained from testing in 2022 identified the feasibility of the novel propulsion system while multiple test series scheduled throughout 2023 and 2024 target closing the remaining critical technical gaps preventing widespread use of the technology amongst industry.

Thomas Teasley↗

DOE OSTI2021

A hub and spoke approach to optimizing energy wheeling of renewable resources

The deployment of zero carbon renewable energy sources needs to increase significantly to support the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. At the same time energy end use needs to decarbonize. This will change both energy supply and energy demand patterns, requiring the energy delivery infrastructure (grid-based transmission circuits) to become increasingly flexible to maintain security of supply everywhere and always. The integration of zero carbon renewable energy requires cross-border and cross energy system coupling and a fit-for-purpose design. Nowadays, energy systems are planned, designed and operated in silos with a strong national focus. However, large-scale offshore wind production needs to be transported to deep inland locations, across country borders. The increased peak generation capacity of renewable energy sources will, at times, significantly exceed demand (Matthew Langholtz, 2020). The traditional solution of continuously reinforcing and extending the electricity grid is not sustainable from a cost and societal perspective. This paper will, however, propose a deterministic approach on how networked (interconnected grid) Points of receipt (POR) to Points of Delivery (POD) can be optimized for wheeling renewable energy resources while minimizing energy cost with a hub and spoke approach. The statistical approach will be done via using existing daily energy market clearing prices, available transmission capacity and firm daily transmission prices in open access energy markets. Renewable energy targets, including specific offshore wind targets, need to be in line with the ramp-up as implied by the Paris Agreement. These targets are required to provide industry with a secure market outlook that allows them to build up supply chains accordingly. Optimizing wheeled energy paths from carbon neutral resources such as renewables make them not only cost competitive on the unit commitment stack, but also more accessible on the dispatch stack to other carbon heavy forms of generation such as coal and natural gas turbines (Matthew Langholtz, 2020). This correlates to maximizing renewable resource inertia (wind, solar, biomass) within an interconnected grid without having to consider additional expansion of resources via land purchases and de-forestation.

Mukherjee, Srijib↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the effects of cooperative transmission expansion planning on grid performance during heat waves with varying spatial scales

There is growing recognition of the advantages of interregional transmission capacity to decarbonize electricity grids. A less explored benefit is potential performance improvements during extreme weather events. This study examines the impacts of cooperative transmission expansion planning using an advanced modeling chain to simulate power grid operations of the United States Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 under different levels of collaboration between transmission planning regions. Two historical heat waves in 2019 with varying geographical coverage are replayed under future climate change in 2059 to assess the transmission cooperation benefits during grid stress. The results show that cooperative transmission planning yields the best outcomes in terms of reducing wholesale electricity prices and minimizing energy outages both for the whole interconnection and individual transmission planning regions. Compared to individual planning, cooperative planning reduces wholesale electricity prices by 64.3 % and interconnection-wide total costs (transmission investments + grid operations) by 34.6 % in 2059. It also helps decrease greenhouse gas emissions by increasing renewable energy utilization. However, the benefits of cooperation diminish during the widespread heat wave when all regions face extreme electricity demand due to higher space cooling needs. Despite this, cooperative transmission planning remains advantageous, particularly for California Independent System Operator with significant diurnal solar generation capacity. This study suggests that cooperation in transmission planning is crucial for reducing costs and increasing reliability both during normal periods and extreme weather events. It highlights the importance of optimizing the strategic investments to mitigate challenges posed by wider-scale extreme weather events of the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Three-dimensional reconstruction of neutron, gamma-ray, and x-ray sources using a cylindrical-harmonics expansion

Inertial confinement fusion capsule implosions produce neutron, gamma-ray, and x-ray emission, which are recorded by a variety of detectors, both time integrated and time resolved, to determine the performance of the implosion. Further, two-dimensional emission images from multiple directions can now be combined to infer three-dimensional structures in the implosion, such as the distribution of thermonuclear fuel density, carbon ablator, and impurities. Because of the cost and complexity of the imaging systems, however, only a few measurements can be made, so reconstructions of the source must be made from a limited number of views. Here, a cylindrical-harmonics decomposition technique to reconstruct the three-dimensional object from two views in the same symmetry plane is presented. In the limit of zero order, this method recovers the Abel inversion method. The detailed algorithms used for this characterization and the resulting reconstructed neutron source from an experiment collected at the National Ignition Facility are presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations

Solar energy has the potential to be a core energy resource for the southeastern United States. To better understand the implications of higher levels of solar PV (27%-43% of total generation capacity) and electricity storage (13%-49% of peak load) would affect electricity system reliability, costs, and operations in the U.S. Southeast, this study sought to address two main questions. First, how would higher levels of solar PV and electricity storage impact the costs, reliability, and operations of electricity systems in the Southeast in 2035? Second, at different levels of solar PV and electricity storage, what are the benefits of operational coordination among utilities in the Southeast, through more efficient regional dispatch and sharing operating reserves? To answer these questions, the study used detailed capacity expansion and dispatch modeling to develop and examine 15 scenarios with different levels of solar PV, electricity storage, and operational coordination, focusing on the year 2035. The study also evaluates the benefits of operational coordination among utilities through more efficient regional dispatch and reserve sharing, at different levels of solar and storage. The study focuses on five balancing regions that cover Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and parts of Mississippi and Missouri.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Influence of Powder Characteristics and Processing Methods on Creep Performance of Powder Metallurgy Hot Isostatic Pressed SS316

The U.S. nuclear energy expansion goals are driving the demand for manufacturing routes that can rapidly produce large, complex, near net shape components. Powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing (PM HIP) is an advanced manufacturing technique that can be economically scaled-up, while alleviating the supply chain challenges that forging and casting face in terms of cost and lead time constraints. This makes PM-HIP a viable technology to aid and accelerate large-scale part manufacturing for nuclear applications. However, large-scale qualification and deployment of this technology require a thorough understanding of the influence of powder feedstock quality, powder handling history, hot isostatic pressing (HIP) parameters, and subsequent heat treatment on microstructural evolution and elevated temperature mechanical performance. The present work focusses on 316 austenitic stainless steel (SS316) which is most commonly used in high temperature environments for nuclear applications Results from this study show that PM HIPed SS316 meets ASME tensile requirements at room temperature and at elevated temperature. However, creep performance of PM-HIPed SS316 remains inferior to its wrought counterpart, demonstrating that tensile performance alone is not a reliable metric for long duration high temperature integrity. Further, this report delineates powder derived microstructural features that govern creep damage, with key evidences pointing to “microstructural inheritance” from gas atomized powder feedstocks. Commercial SS316 powders of varying chemical compositions and recycling histories were studies, and the results showed large differences in elemental segregation, oxide surface layers and secondary phase distributions. Multi-scale characterization revealed segregation of chromium, molybdenum, manganese and silicon at the boundaries and the precipitation of manganese-, silicon-, and molybdenum-oxides. During HIP consolidation, these surface oxides transform into decorated prior particle boundaries (PPBs) and grain boundary inclusions that persist through conventional post-HIP solution annealing treatment. The retained oxides in post-HIP microstructures were found to influence grain growth, precipitation behavior, and ultimately creep cavitation and fracture. Such post-HIP heat treatments are therefore limited by a complex trade-off between grain growth, and oxide coarsening which aggravate creep damage by acting as nucleation sites for cavities. The objective of this work is to establish an integrated processing–structure–property framework for PM-HIP 316 stainless steel by investigating the influence of powder feedstock characteristics in pre- and post-HIP processing as well as to understand the significance of post-HIP heat treatment on microstructural evolution and creep properties. The results from this report emphasize the significance of powder feedstock integrity in improving creep performance of PM-HIPed SS316, by highlight the effect of rapid solidification, elemental segregation, oxide formation and powder recycling on microstructural defect inheritance following HIP consolidation. Rather than considering HIP processing, solution annealing, and mechanical performance independently, this report treats powder production, HIP consolidation, post-HIP thermal processing, and creep deformation as interconnected stages within a continuous metallurgical process. The resulting framework will provide a scientific basis for developing feedstock engineering strategies capable of improving long-term reliability of PM-HIP stainless steels and accelerating their qualification for advanced nuclear applications.

Ajjarapu, Pavan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

DOE OSTI2023

Summary Paper: An Initial Heliostat Supply Chain Analysis

This paper summarizes the prior analysis, key findings, and recommendations from the published report titled “Initial Heliostat Supply Chain Analysis” [1]. Globally, the growing demand for concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies, primarily for electricity generation plants has been met with supply chains primarily composed of plentiful commodity materials such as steel, aluminum, and glass. Often the commodity materials can be sourced in the domestic market where power plant will be constructed. Although specialty components are required for CSP solar fields —including mirror panels used for heliostat applications—these specialty components constitute about 30-50% of total system installed costs [2]. Only a few companies and countries, including the United States, have developed the capacity to supply such specialty components. The U.S. heliostat supply chain at present is comprised of few companies (e.g., CSP developers), component suppliers, and is its infancy. By 2035, with current and aggressive solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity expansions, there is the potential for 500,000–1,500,000 direct and indirect jobs in the areas of manufacturing, installation and development, and operations and maintenance (O&M) [3]. Utilizing the CSP capacity estimations the recent NREL report [4], the construction of 39 gigawatts (GW) of CSP (assuming mainly power tower) in the U.S. could lead to approximately 195,000 manufacturing, construction, and O&M jobs. This does not include the longer-term jobs and economic impact (e.g., taxes from plant operations staff) from operating the plants once constructed. It is recommended that further CSP component and system supply chain analysis and modelling be undertaken.

Kurup, Parthiv (ORCID:0000000217356703)↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Versatile Nonlinear Method for Predictive Modeling

As computational fluid dynamics techniques and tools become widely accepted for realworld practice today, it is intriguing to ask: what areas can it be utilized to its potential in the future. Some promising areas include design optimization and exploration of fluid dynamics phenomena (the concept of numerical wind tunnel), in which both have the common feature where some parameters are varied repeatedly and the computation can be costly. We are especially interested in the need for an accurate and efficient approach for handling these applications: (1) capturing complex nonlinear dynamics inherent in a system under consideration and (2) versatility (robustness) to encompass a range of parametric variations. In our previous paper, we proposed to use first-order Taylor expansion collected at numerous sampling points along a trajectory and assembled together via nonlinear weighting functions. The validity and performance of this approach was demonstrated for a number of problems with a vastly different input functions. In this study, we are especially interested in enhancing the method's accuracy; we extend it to include the second-orer Taylor expansion, which however requires a complicated evaluation of Hessian matrices for a system of equations, like in fluid dynamics. We propose a method to avoid these Hessian matrices, while maintaining the accuracy. Results based on the method are presented to confirm its validity.

nonlinear modeling↗

NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Afterbody Radiative Heating Predictions for Earth Entry

The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.

West, Thomas K., IV↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Test Results for NASA Goddard’s Low-Cost Optical Terminal Adaptive Optics System

This presentation presents the testing approach and initial laboratory test results of the Adaptive Optics (AO) Subassembly (AOS) for the Low-Cost Optical Terminal (LCOT), a low-cost and flexible optical communications ground terminal. Leveraging commercial components and subassemblies wherever possible, LCOT is being developed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Advanced Communications Capabilities for Exploration and Science Systems (ACCESS) project. An economical ground terminal allows NASA to create a global optical terminal network and enables the expansion of direct-to-Earth (DTE) optical communications. Located at the Goddard Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory (GGAO), LCOT is in the development phase and will receive first light during initial testing beginning in 2023. This new optical terminal includes a 700 mm Ritchey-Chretien commercial telescope, able to track Low Earth Orbit (LEO) spacecraft, receive instruments specified from 1500 - 1600 nm, and an uplink transmit optical system. Demodulation of optical coherent modulation formats requires downlink signal coupling into single-mode fiber. Due to atmospheric turbulence, signals experience wavefront distortions creating speckle patterns larger than the fiber core and high jitter requiring precise beam steering. AO is necessary to correct atmospheric turbulence effects and allow efficient coupling of received signals. In 2020, GSFC contracted with General Atomics to provide the LCOT AO system. This system has been delivered to GSFC in September 2021 and has been tested in laboratory to evaluate performance. This paper describes the laboratory testing approach, turbulence phase plate design, test results, and the AO field testing plan when installed on the LCOT telescope.

Adaptive Optics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Additive Manufacturing Technologies for 3D Printing of Spacecraft Heat Shields

Introduction: Ablative heat shields are an enabling technology for entry into planetary atmospheres. From the PICA heatshields used for several Mars rovers to the carbon phenolic material used for Galileo’s Jupiter entry probe, the heat shield manages the heat load transferred to the payload, protecting the sensitive scientific instruments carried on entry probes. The Additive Manufacturing of Thermal Protection Systems (AMTPS) project, an Early Career Initiative (ECI) funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate and led by NASA Johnson Space Center, seeks to develop materials and processes for 3D printing ablative heat shields for spacecraft. Current methods for producing ablative heat shields are extremely labor intensive and re-quire extensive hands-on processes and quality control characterization. Additive manufacturing (AM) offers the possibility of reduced production times, improved reliability, and enhanced performance via graded compositions. Costs will also be reduced by reducing the time and labor required for heat shield production. Direct integration of the heat shield onto the structure during processing simplifies integration and reduces risk. Material Development: A critical challenge for the project is development of a material system that can (1) be printed in a near-net shape process and (2) perform well as an ablator. Achieving printability requires the material to flow under applied pressure, but maintain its shape once extruded from the printer nozzle. Ablative performance is measured by a multitude of markers, including char yield, char strength, thermal conductivity, and recession rate. Furthermore, there are several mechanical and thermal property considerations for vehicle integration including coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and residual stress. AM technology will be leveraged to grade the material formulation and properties through the thickness of the heat shield, an architecture not possible with current manufacturing processes. To this end, “robust” material formulations have been pre-pared with higher density for use on the surface where most ablation will occur. “Insulative” material formulations, with lower density and lower thermal conductivity, are prepared for use in the depth of the heat shield. This graded architecture will re-duce the overall mass of the heat shield and reduce costs and/or increase scientific payload capacities. To achieve a material system with the required properties, multiple resins have been investigated in collaboration with NASA Ames Research Center. To tune printability and performance, resin additives were studied to improve flexibility of the cured material while maintaining acceptable ablative performance. Material coupons were printed and studied via a suite of mechanical and thermal characterization methods. Arc jet testing was conducted at NASA Ames Research Center to evaluate ablative performance and thermal protection under conditions expected in atmospheric entry. Manufacturing Scale-Up: A partnership with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) aims to enable full-scale fabrication of a 3D printed heat shield. Leveraging expertise in manufacturing and 3D printing at ORNL, a mid-scale manufacturing demonstration unit will be built and tested, using a dual-layer ablative system printed directly onto the titanium structure. Work on robotic system integration is ongoing and efforts to scale up material mixing with a material compound will ensure accurate and homogenous composition. Flight Test: A hypersonic sub-orbital flight test will provide a rigorous test of material performance ranging from ablation, thermal management, and mechanical integrity. Design of the capsule has taken place in collaboration with the University of Kentucky. Data collected from the flight will inform future design efforts in material formulation, printing methodology, and heat shield-capsule integration.

additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2024

HYDRODYNAMIC TESTING OF ZIRCALOY TO STEEL HUB COUPLINGS FOR USE IN ADVANCED TEST REACTOR I-LOOP TUBE

The ATR I-positions' isolation from the flux trap region provides an opportunity for a test facility that could create conditions representative of commercial light water reactors. Such a facility requires piping couplings and joints that withstand extreme thermal and pressure cycling. Also, transitioning from steel to zircaloy piping inside the reactor vessel allows the neutronic properties of zircaloy to be leveraged while using cost-effective stainless steel outside of the core. Grayloc-style hub couplings will act as transition points between stainless steel piping and zircaloy piping inside the reactor vessel. These couplings have not been sufficiently tested for leakage where there is a transition between materials. This transition is a concern because the thermal expansion coefficients of the materials differ. Seal integrity between the two components may be greatly affected by thermal expansion at the connection. Thus, the effect of thermal cycling must be assessed. Thermal and pressure cycling and hydrodynamic testing will be conducted to verify seal integrity of the steel to zircaloy hub coupling when subjected to ATR conditions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The impact of market design and clean energy incentives on strategic generation investments and resource adequacy in low-carbon electricity markets

Well-designed electricity markets play a crucial role in maintaining reliable electric power systems, which are critical in modern society. Here, this study examines the impact of different electricity market designs and clean energy incentive schemes on supporting renewable energy integration and achieving clean energy goals. To this end, we utilize a game-theoretical generation expansion planning model where generation companies make investment and retirement decisions to maximize their expected profit. The model is structured as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) and solved using a diagonalization approach combined with progressive hedging. We analyze three types of electricity market designs: an energy-only market, a capacity market, and a clean energy market, and consider a wide range of market parameters resulting in 14 total scenarios. Wind and solar capacity comprise the majority of new investments in all considered scenarios, but the resultant system planning reserve margin (PRM) can differ significantly depending on market parameters. We also find that profit-driven investments lead to lower PRMs than a traditional system cost minimization approach. These individual scenario results further demonstrate how different market designs and clean energy incentive schemes may influence investor decision-making and impact resource adequacy throughout the clean energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗