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From Formal Errors Towards Realistic Uncertainties

Evaluation of uncertainties of geodetic parameter estimates is the problem that is not yet solved in a satisfactory way. A direct evaluation of the uncertainties derived from a least square solution is labeled "formal" and is usually biased, sometimes up to an order of magnitude. Customary, the use of formal errors for scientific analysis is discouraged. We claim that the root of the problem is neglecting off-diagonal elements in the variance-covariance matrix of the noise in the data. A careful reconstruction of the full variance-covariance matrix, including the off-diagonal terms greatly improves realism of uncertainty estimates derived from least squares. We processed the dataset of VLBI group delays and built a prior variance-covariance of the atmosphere-driven noise based on analysis of the output of NASA high-resolution numerical weather models. We found that the uncertainties of parameter estimates derived from this least square solution that uses such variance-covariance matrices become much closer to realistic errors. We consider approaches for implementation of this method in routine data analysis of space geodesy data.

Leonid Petrov↗

The Re-Analysis of Ozone Profile Data from a 41-Year Series of SBUV Instruments

In this study we present the validation of ozone profiles from a number of Solar Back Scattered Ultra Violet (SBUV) and SBUV/2 instruments that were recently reprocessed using an updated (Version 8.6) algorithm. The SBUV dataset provides the longest available record of global ozone profiles, spanning a 41-year period from 1970 to 2011 (except a 5-year gap in the 1970s) and includes ozone profile records obtained from the Nimbus-4 BUV and Nimbus-7 SBUV instruments, and a series of SBUV(/2) instruments launched on NOAA operational satellites (NOAA 09, 11, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19). Although modifications in instrument design were made in the evolution from the BUV instrument to the modern SBUV(/2) model, the basic principles of the measurement technique and retrieval algorithm remain the same. The long term SBUV data record allows us to create a consistent, calibrated dataset of ozone profiles that can be used for climate studies and trend analyses. In particular, we focus on estimating the various sources of error in the SBUV profile ozone retrievals using independent observations and analysis of the algorithm itself. For the first time we include in the metadata a quantitative estimate of the smoothing error, defined as the error due to profile variability that the SBUV observing system cannot inherently measure. The magnitude of the smoothing error varies with altitude, latitude, season and solar zenith angle. Between 10 and 1 hPa the smoothing errors for the SBUV monthly zonal mean retrievals are of the order of 1 %, but start to increase above and below this layer. The largest smoothing errors, as large as 15-20%, were detected in in the troposphere. The SBUV averaging kernels, provided with the ozone profiles in version 8.6, help to eliminate the smoothing effect when comparing the SBUV profiles with high vertical resolution measurements, and make it convenient to use the SBUV ozone profiles for data assimilation and model validation purposes. The smoothing error can also be minimized by combining layers of data, and we will discuss recommendations for this approach as well. The SBUV ozone profiles have been intensively validated against satellite profile measurements obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounders (MLS) (on board the UARS and AURA satellites), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). Also, we compare coincident and collocated SBUV ozone retrievals with observations made by ground-based instruments, such as microwave spectrometers, lidars, Umkehr instruments and balloon-borne ozonosondes. Finally, we compare the SBUV ozone profiles with output from the NASA GSFC GEOS-CCM model. In the stratosphere between 25 and 1 hPa the mean biases and standard deviations are within 5% for monthly mean ozone profiles. Above and below this layer the vertical resolution of the SBUV algorithm decreases and the effects of vertical smoothing should be taken into account. Though the SBUV algorithm has a coarser vertical resolution in the lower stratosphere and troposphere, it is capable of precisely estimating the integrated ozone column between the surface and 25 hPa. The time series of the tropospheric - lower stratospheric ozone column derived from SBUV agrees within 5% with the corresponding values observed by an ensemble of ozone sonde stations in North Hemisphere. Drift of the ozone time series obtained from each SBUV(/2) instrument relative to ground based and satellite measurements are evaluated and some features of individual SBUV(l2) instruments are discussed. In addition to evaluating individual instruments against independent observations, we also focus on the instrument to instrument consistency in the series. Overall, Version 8.6 ozone profiles obtained from two different SBUV(l2) instruments compare within a couple of percent during overlap periods and are consistently varying in time, with some exceptions. Some of the noted discrepancies might bssociated with ozone diurnal variations, since the difference in the local time of the observations for a pair of SBUV(l2) instruments could be several hours. Other issues include the potential short-term drift in measurements as the instrument orbit drifts, and measurements are obtained at high solar zenith angles (>85 ). Based on the results of the validation, a consistent, calibrated dataset of SBUV ozone profiles has been created based on internal calibration only.

Kramarova, Natalya↗

pyQuARC: Open Source Library for Earth Observation Metadata Quality Assessment

Metadata quality is essential to effective data discovery and has become increasingly vital as more Earth Science data sets become available. The Common Metadata Repository (CMR) hosts metadata describing NASA’s Earth Observation data products, which are archived across 12 Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs). The Analysis and Review of CMR (ARC) Team, located at Marshall Space Flight Center, conducts metadata quality assessments to ensure that these data products are discoverable, accessible, and usable. To achieve these goals, the ARC team has developed a metadata quality assessment framework to evaluate metadata completeness, correctness, and consistency. ARC uses a combination of manual and automated methods to assess these three components and identify areas of improvement; the team then collaborates with the DAACs to resolve any findings. To streamline this process, ARC is currently developing a host of scripts, known as pyQuARC, to automate metadata quality assessments as much as possible. pyQuARC is an open source library for Earth Observation Metadata Quality Assessment, and the tool utilizes ARC’s metadata quality assessment framework to make basic validation checks, pinpoint inconsistencies between dataset-level (i.e. collection) and file-level (i.e. granule) metadata, and identify opportunities for more descriptive and robust information. Since pyQuARC is also customizable, other users can make modifications as needed, and future metadata standards can also be implemented. Once pyQuARC is fully developed, it will support multiple schema types to serve the broader EOSDIS metadata community. This presentation will provide an overview of pyQuARC and its process of development while showcasing the tool’s valuable features and uses.

Jenny Wood↗

Short-Term Forecasts Using NU-WRF for the Winter Olympics 2018

The NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) will be included for testing and evaluation in the forecast demonstration project (FDP) of the International Collaborative Experiment −PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic (ICE-POP) Winter Games. An international array of radar and supporting ground based observations together with various forecast and now-cast models will be operational during ICE-POP. In conjunction with personnel from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is developing benchmark simulations for a real-time NU-WRF configuration to run during the FDP. ICE-POP observational datasets will be used to validate model simulations and investigate improved model physics and performance for prediction of snow events during the research phase (RDP) of the project The NU-WRF model simulations will also support NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground-validation physical and direct validation activities in relation to verifying, testing and improving satellite-based snowfall retrieval algorithms over complex terrain.

forecasting↗

Expanding the Spatiotemporal Range of Soil Moisture Analysis Utilizing NASA Earth Observations and In Situ Measurements

Drought can cause immense agricultural and ecological damage resulting in high mitigation and compensation costs. Climate variability in future decades is expected to cause severe drought conditions and threaten necessary water resources. Stakeholders seek to implement effective drought assessments in preparation for potential economic and environmental damage invoked by drought. Although in-situ measurements are accurate, the current infrastructure is spatially limited and costly to maintain. A framework was created to compare modeled, satellite and in-situ data in drought monitoring. Here we show that the comparison of in-situ and remotely sensed soil moisture (SM) measurements can increase the spatiotemporal range of SM assessments. Data collected between 2003 and 2021 by NASA’s SPoRT Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission were standardized and compared with in-situ data provided through the Illinois Climate Network (WARM). Statistical analysis results including the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), root mean squared error, mean absolute error and others were calculated to compare the WARM measurements to the SMAP and SPoRT-LIS products. Results indicate that both satellite products demonstrate seasonally variable bias that is not present in the in-situ measurements. Bias was highest in the winter months and lowest in the late summer and early fall months in both satellite datasets. Overall, WARM-SPoRT comparisons resulted in lower seasonal variability. However, on average, the SMAP comparison demonstrated higher correlation values and lower error values. The WARM-SMAP average correlation (r) was 0.61 compared to the WARM-SPoRT average correlation (r) value of 0.54. Average mean absolute error values calculated for the SMAP and SPoRT comparisons were 0.07 and 0.08 percent soil moisture by volume, respectively. These analyses suggest integrating in-situ measurements and those provided by NASA Earth observations can be utilized in a multi-faceted SM evaluation, a valuable contribution to drought monitoring and water resource decision making.

Emma P Myrick↗

Flutter and Divergence Analysis using the Generalized Aeroelastic Analysis Method

The Generalized Aeroelastic Analysis Method (GAAM) is applied to the analysis of three well-studied checkcases: restrained and unrestrained airfoil models, and a wing model. An eigenvalue iteration procedure is used for converging upon roots of the complex stability matrix. For the airfoil models, exact root loci are given which clearly illustrate the nature of the flutter and divergence instabilities. The singularities involved are enumerated, including an additional pole at the origin for the unrestrained airfoil case and the emergence of an additional pole on the positive real axis at the divergence speed for the restrained airfoil case. Inconsistencies and differences among published aeroelastic root loci and the new, exact results are discussed and resolved. The generalization of a Doublet Lattice Method computer code is described and the code is applied to the calculation of root loci for the wing model for incompressible and for subsonic flow conditions. The error introduced in the reduction of the singular integral equation underlying the unsteady lifting surface theory to a linear algebraic equation is discussed. Acknowledging this inherent error, the solutions of the algebraic equation by GAAM are termed 'exact.' The singularities of the problem are discussed and exponential series approximations used in the evaluation of the kernel function shown to introduce a dense collection of poles and zeroes on the negative real axis. Again, inconsistencies and differences among published aeroelastic root loci and the new 'exact' results are discussed and resolved. In all cases, aeroelastic flutter and divergence speeds and frequencies are in good agreement with published results. The GAAM solution procedure allows complete control over Mach number, velocity, density, and complex frequency. Thus all points on the computed root loci can be matched-point, consistent solutions without recourse to complex mode tracking logic or dataset interpolation, as in the k and p-k solution methods.

Edwards, John W.↗

QuantifyML: How Good is My Machine Learning Model?

We present QuantifyML, which applies model counting to assess the learn ability, safety, and robustness of machine learning models. Typically, the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test datasets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. With QuantifyML we aim to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into aC program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise countsw.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, ex-pressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the safety and robustness of trained models.

Deep Neural Networks↗

Assessment of Quantum ML Applicability for Climate Actions: Comparison of the Variational Quantum Classifier and the Quantum Support Vector Classifier with Classical ML Models

Climate change refers to significant and long-term alterations in the Earth’s climate patterns, typically resulting from human activities that increase greenhouse gas emissions. Addressing climate change is not merely an option but a necessity, demanding creative solutions and efforts from individuals, researchers, communities, and governments. Despite the capabilities of machine learning (ML) with data-driven solutions promising to combat climate change-related problems, they face challenges stemming from traditional computational methods and prolonged training times, impeding their practical utility. Recent strides in quantum computing have permeated diverse domains, spanning from manufacturing engineering and pharmaceutical discovery to the latest frontier of detecting climate anomalies. With the potential to substantially reduce time and computational complexity, quantum computing shows promise in addressing climate change impacts. Its distinctive features will enable the concurrent exploration of expansive solution spaces, making it well-suited for analyzing extensive climate datasets, simulating intricate climate models, optimizing resource allocation, and discerning patterns in climate data for mitigation and adaptation endeavors. This study explores the potential of using Quantum machine learning (QML) techniques on climate and weather data obtained from NASA Giovannis. We used two QML algorithms, the Quantum Support Vector Classifier (QSVC) and the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) models, using the IBM Qiskit ML 0.7.2 ecosystem. We used an actual 127-Qubit IBM Quantum Computer (IBM 127-qubit Eagle) in this study. The methodology and results sections describe the experiences gained from applying and evaluating quantum ML results on climate and weather data obtained from NASA satellites as a novel practical application of quantum computing.

Earth Observational Data↗

Tonlé Sap Food Security and Agriculture: Evaluating the Effects of Land Use and Hydrological Change on Ecosystem Vitality using Remotely-Sensed Data in the Tonlé Sap Lake Basin

Tonlé Sap Lake, the largest lake in Southeast Asia, is a critical source of fish and freshwater resources for the region. The health of this freshwater system is under pressure from accelerating dam construction, intensifying agriculture, deforestation, and changing climate patterns, forcing tradeoffs between immediate food security and the long-term vitality and productivity of the ecosystem. Efficient freshwater system monitoring is crucial to navigating these challenges. In collaboration with Conservation International, the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, and the Tonlé Sap Authority, we developed and tested remotely-sensed proxies for sub-indicators of the Freshwater Health Index (FHI), which is typically calculated using in situ datasets. We used landcover datasets derived from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), PROBA-V Vegetation sensor (VGT), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Imager (MSI), Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and Envisat Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) as inputs to calculate land cover naturalness and bank modification. Additionally, we created a lake-level time series using a collection of altimetry data sources to estimate deviation from natural flow. We observed a decrease in landcover naturalness and a breakdown in the volume and regularity of annual lake levels from 2000-2020, reflecting increased pressure on water supply and agricultural productivity. At least 8% of forested areas in the basin were lost and rice harvest intensity increased over the course of the study period. These results will help our partners make informed decisions regarding freshwater management. Furthermore, our remotely-sensed FHI analysis can be replicated in other regions, providing decision makers with a snapshot of freshwater health in data-scarce environments.

Marco Vallejos↗

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repairs Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, it will be necessary to understand how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes. Past work has been done using historical ISS data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available data sets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat, and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA International Space Station (ISS) maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases, the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS) respectively. Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. MDC provides a detailed catalog of failure events and an overview of the failure’s required maintenance and OPTimIS provides a description of crew activities and crew time durations dedicated to maintenance. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair times for each failure event. Data is also classified by the outcome of each repair event, whether the failed component was replaced or whether it was repaired in place. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to allow for a statistically significant sample size for each class and to provide accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for placing new batches of these satellites on orbit often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in high-eccentricity orbits that have the potential to transect other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are replaced and old ones are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have to future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of future realistic scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical scenarios, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, solar radiation pressure, and more. As the model is run forward in time, various statistics and meta-data are gathered on any predicted conjunction event, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, e.g., what size are the two satellites, who operates the satellites, are they active or passive objects, etc. Additional customization is available in terms of how probability of collision is computed, and how the probability ellipsoids and screening volumes are determined. The simulation tool also allows for rule-based maneuvers for active satellites, e.g, given an advance conjunction “warning,” one or both of the satellites can maneuver to a safe distance. A wide range of maneuvers can be implemented using impulsive or low-thrust methods, and the latencies can also be varied, e.g., using maneuver lead times of 48 hours, 24 hours, or 12 hours. Validation of the simulation results is performed against current and historical datasets available, to include comparisons to prior conjunction data messages (CDMs), object properties (mass, volume, etc.), and two-line-element records from both public and internal sources. Using the simulation environment, an assessment on the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments will be presented. This will involve the simulation of approximately 50,000 new large constellation satellites, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 20,000 known resident space objects (RSOs), over propagation periods of one month to one year. A description of the simulation methodologies, scenarios evaluated, and validation methods will also be presented, as well as a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of several candidate maneuver strategies that have the potential to reduce collision risk between active satellites.

Brian Gunter↗

Evaluating Twenty-Year Trends in Earth’s Energy Flows from Observations

Recent satellite and ocean in-situ observations indicate a doubling of Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) since 2005 that is a consequence of anthropogenic forcing, internal variability, and climate feedbacks. In this study, we follow-up with an assessment of how other components of Earth’s energy budget have changed since 2000 and how well these can be tracked. Specifically, we use top-of-atmosphere and surface observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and calculations of atmospheric divergence of energy transport from ERA-5 to determine the change in total surface flux along with its radiative and turbulent heat flux components. We also assess trends in ocean heat uptake for different ocean layers using various ocean reanalysis datasets. We compare trends derived using various observational and modeling approaches to assess how robust the derived trends are. Our analysis is restricted to global, hemispheric and regional spatial scales and annual mean and seasonal timescales.

CERES↗

Desert Locust Cropland Damage Differentiated from Drought, with Multi-Source Remote Sensing in Ethiopia

In 2020, Ethiopia had the worst desert locust outbreak in 25 years, leading to food insecurity. Locust research has typically focused on predicting the paths and breeding grounds based on ground surveys and remote sensing of outbreak factors. In this study, we hypothesized that it is possible to detect desert locust cropland damage through the analysis of fine-scale (5–10 m) resolution satellite remote sensing datasets. We performed our analysis on 121 swarm point locations on croplands derived from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, and 94 ‘non-affected’ random cropland sample points generated for this study that are distributed within 20–25 km from the ‘center’ of swarm affected sample locations. Integrated Drought Condition Indices (IDCIs) and Vegetation Health Indices (VHIs) calculated for the affected sample locations for 2000–2020 were strongly correlated (R(exp 2) > 0.90) with that of the corresponding non-affected group of sample sites. Drought indices were strongly correlated with the evaluation Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPEIs) and showed that 2020 was the wettest year since 2000. In 2020, the NDVI and backscatter coefficient of cropland phenologies from the affected versus non-affected cropland sample sites showed a slightly wider, but significant gap in March (short growing season) and August-October (long growing season). Thus, slightly wider gaps in cropland phenologies between the affected and non-affected sites were likely induced from the locust damage, not drought, with fine scale data representing a larger gap.

Desert locust↗

Improving Sim-to-Real Transfer in Vision-Based Robot Navigation Via Instance-Level GAN-Based Data Augmentation

Achieving robust vision-based robotic tasks requires large amounts of data, which are often difficult to obtain in real-world scenarios. Simulators and synthetic data offer a cost-effective alternative, but the visual gap between simulation and reality hinders the performance of models when deployed in real-world environments. In this paper, we present a data augmentation pipeline that integrates a foundation model (Segment Anything Model) with an unsupervised image-to-image translation model (CycleGAN) for instance-level domain transfer from simulation to reality. This pipeline enables the generation of realistic labeled data from synthetic images for training supervised machine learning models in vision-based navigation tasks. We evaluate our approach on real-world data for ego-vehicle pose estimation, a critical autonomous navigation task involving the prediction of cross-track position and heading angle relative to road center line markings. The results of our tests show that our GAN-based data augmentation pipeline significantly outperforms models trained solely on simulation data or on data processed with standard image augmentation methods for sim-to-real transfer, enhancing model robustness and generalizability in real-world scenarios. Our method provides a scalable and flexible data augmentation tool for leveraging large synthetic datasets to enhance vision-based robotic navigation tasks.

artificial intelligence↗

Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Evaluate Urban Tree Canopy and Land Surface Temperature for Green Infrastructure Development and Urban Heat Mitigation in Huntsville, AL

Huntsville, Alabama’s population has grown by 10.8% since 2010, due in part to the city’s advancing engineering industry. Rapid urban growth negatively impacts the environment by decreasing tree canopy cover and increasing impervious surface cover, which can intensify the urban heat island effect. To examine the impacts of this urban growth on the environment, the team partnered with the City of Huntsville to utilize Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the International Space Station’s Global Ecosystems Dynamic Investigation (GEDI) and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). The team utilized these Earth observations in combination with ancillary datasets to create a suite of end products to assist in mitigating the effects of extreme heat due to urban expansion and tree canopy loss. Rasters of annual land surface temperature (LST) was calculated in Google Earth Engine from 2010 to 2019. The team derived land cover classes through supervised and threshold classification methods to distinguish trees, other vegetation types, impervious surfaces, and water. From 2010 to 2019, LST increased approximately 4 °F for all census tracts within the city and the total amount of tree cover increases less than 3%. The findings will aid the city in future decision-making processes by indicating areas that would benefit from increased green infrastructure.

Greta Paris↗

Huntsville Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Evaluate Urban Tree Canopy and Land Surface Temperature for Green Infrastructure Development and Urban Heat Mitigation in Huntsville, AL

Huntsville, Alabama’s population has grown by approximately 11% since 2010, due in part to the city’s advancing engineering industry. Rapid urban growth negatively impacts the environment by decreasing tree canopy cover and increasing impervious surface cover, which can intensify the urban heat island effect. To examine the impacts of this urban growth on the environment, the team partnered with the City of Huntsville to utilize Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the International Space Station’s Global Ecosystems Dynamic Investigation (GEDI) and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). The team utilized these Earth observations in combination with ancillary datasets to create a suite of end products to assist in mitigating the effects of extreme heat due to urban expansion and tree canopy loss. Annual land surface temperature (LST) was calculated and land cover classes were derived through supervised and threshold classification methods to distinguish trees, other vegetation types, impervious surfaces, and water. From 2010 to 2019, LST increased approximately 4 °F for all census tracts within the city and the total amount of tree cover increased by approximately 3%. The findings will aid the city in future decision-making processes by indicating areas that would benefit from increased green infrastructure.

Greta Paris↗

Huntsville Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Evaluate Urban Tree Canopy and Land Surface Temperature for Green Infrastructure Development and Urban Heat Mitigation in Huntsville, Alabama

Huntsville, Alabama’s population has grown by approximately 11% since 2010, due in part to the city’s advancing engineering industry. Rapid urban growth negatively impacts the environment by decreasing tree canopy cover and increasing impervious surface cover, which can intensify the urban heat island effect. To examine the impacts of this urban growth on the environment, the team partnered with the City of Huntsville to utilize Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the International Space Station’s Global Ecosystems Dynamic Investigation (GEDI) and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). The team utilized these Earth observations in combination with ancillary datasets to create a suite of end products to assist in mitigating the effects of extreme heat due to urban expansion and tree canopy loss. Annual land surface temperature (LST) was calculated and land cover classes were derived through supervised and threshold classification methods to distinguish trees, other vegetation types, impervious surfaces, and water. From 2010 to 2019, LST increased approximately 4 °F for all census tracts within the city and the total amount of tree cover increased by approximately 3%. The findings will aid the city in future decision-making processes by indicating areas that would benefit from increased green infrastructure.

Greta Paris↗

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repair Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, understanding how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes is vital for future mission planning. Past work has been done using historical International Space Station (ISS) data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available datasets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat (SH), and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA ISS maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases: the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS). Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair time for each failure and repair event. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to ensure a significant sample size for each class and accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time to Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. The authors applied these modeling methods to a case study of a crewed mission to the planned SH and produced expected corrective maintenance crew time distributions. The results produced an expected corrective maintenance crew time at over 24 hours per mission, and a maintenance crew time distribution that reflects the importance of planning for sufficient maintenance requirements each mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗