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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding and Estimating Error Propagation in Neural Networks for Scientific Data Analysis

Neural networks are increasingly integrated into scientific discovery, where input data reduction and model quantization play a key role in accelerating inference. However, understanding and mitigating the impact of these techniques on output error is critical for ensuring reliable results, particularly in tasks demanding high numerical precision. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing neural network inference in scientific computing by combining data reduction and weight quantization while maintaining error-controlled outcomes. We develop theoretical analyses to bound error propagation under these reductions and propose a framework that balances computational performance with error constraints. Evaluation on real-world learning-based combustion simulations and satellite image classification demonstrates that our derived error bounds accurately predict observed errors while enabling significant computational speedup under our framework. This work highlights the potential for further leveraging advancements in modern lossy compression algorithms and hardware accelerators that support lower-precision formats.

He, Weiming [New Jersey Institute of Technology]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Q-Cluster: Quantum Error Mitigation Through Noise-Aware Unsupervised Learning

Quantum error mitigation (QEM) is critical in reducing the impact of noise in the pre-fault-tolerant era, and is expected to complement error correction in fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). In this work, we propose a novel QEM approach, Q-Cluster, that uses unsupervised learning (clustering) to reshape the measured bit-string distribution. Our approach starts with a simplified bit-flip noise model. It first performs clustering on noisy measurement results, i.e., bit-strings, based on the Hamming distance. The centroid of each cluster is calculated using a qubit-wise majority vote. Next, the noisy distribution is adjusted with the clustering outcomes and the bitflip error rates using Bayesian inference. Our simulation results show that Q-Cluster can mitigate high noise rates (up to 40% per qubit) with the simple bit-flip noise model. However, real quantum computers do not fit such a simple noise model. To address the problem, we (a) apply Pauli twirling to tailor the complex noise channels to Pauli errors, and (b) employ a machine learning model, ExtraTrees regressor, to estimate an effective bit-flip error rate using a feature vector consisting of machine calibration data (gate & measurement error rates), circuit features (number of qubits, numbers of different types of gates, etc.) and the shape of the noisy distribution (entropy). Our experimental results show that our proposed Q-Cluster scheme improves the fidelity by a factor of 1.46x, on average, compared to the unmitigated output distribution, for a set of low-entropy benchmarks on five different IBM quantum machines. Our approach outperforms the state-of-art QEM approaches RZNE [28], M3 [24], Hammer [35], and QBEEP [33] by 1.26x,1.29x,1.47x, and 2.65 x, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

TopoSZ: Preserving Topology in Error-Bounded Lossy Compression

Existing error-bounded lossy compression techniques control the pointwise error during compression to guarantee the integrity of the decompressed data. However, they typically do not explicitly preserve the topological features in data. When performing post hoc analysis with decompressed data using topological methods, preserving topology in the compression process to obtain topologically consistent and correct scientific insights is desirable. In this paper, we introduce TopoSZ, an error-bounded lossy compression method that preserves the topological features in 2D and 3D scalar fields. Specifically, we aim to preserve the types and locations of local extrema as well as the level set relations among critical points captured by contour trees in the decompressed data. The main idea is to derive topological constraints from contour-tree-induced segmentation from the data domain, and incorporate such constraints with a customized error-controlled quantization strategy from the SZ compressor (version 1.4). In conclusion, our method allows users to control the pointwise error and the loss of topological features during the compression process with a global error bound and a persistence threshold.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Joint Non-Parametric Correction Estimator for Excess Relative Risk Regression in Survival Analysis with Exposure Measurement Error

Summary Observational epidemiological studies often confront the problem of estimating exposure–disease relationships when the exposure is not measured exactly. We investigate exposure measurement error in excess relative risk regression, which is a widely used model in radiation exposure effect research. In the study cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies a generalized version of the classical additive measurement error model, but it may or may not have repeated measurements. In addition, an instrumental variable is available for individuals in a subset of the whole cohort. We develop a non-parametric correction estimator by using data from the subcohort and further propose a joint non-parametric correction estimator using all observed data to adjust for exposure measurement error. An optimal linear combination estimator of the joint non-parametric correction and non-parametric correction is further developed. The estimators proposed are non-parametric, which are consistent without imposing a covariate or error distribution, and are robust to heteroscedastic errors. Finite sample performance is examined via a simulation study. We apply the developed methods to data from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, in which chromosome aberration is used to adjust for the effects of radiation dose measurement error on the estimation of radiation dose responses.

Wang, Ching-Yun↗
DOE OSTI2025

Single Grid Error Estimation for Neutron Transport Solvers

The method of nearby problems (MNP) is a solution verification technique that does not require the use of multiple spatial grids. To estimate spatial discretization error without requiring a high-fidelity spatial grid, an analytical curve fit is interpolated from the numerical solution. The residual between the curve fit solution and numerical solution is calculated and added as an additional source term to the governing equation. The nearby solution is estimated using the updated source term and boundary conditions to remain consistent with the curve fit interpolation. The nearby solution can be compared to the curve fit solution as a discretization error estimation while using a single spatial grid. Without the use of higher fidelity spatial grids, the MNP is able to approximate the spatial discretization error, a facet of solution verification. The application of the method of nearby problems is presented for one- and two-dimensional neutron transport problems for both fixed source and criticality problems on the spatial variable. The fixed source results demonstrate the effectiveness of nearby problems for spatial error identification using the discrete ordinates method. Criticality results are shown to identify area of high spatial error for the C5G7 problem as well as for the discrete ordinates solver. A novel approach of combining the capabilities of Monte Carlo with the discrete ordinates nearby problems is presented for one- and two-dimensional fixed source problems. In conclusion, the MNP demonstrates its effectiveness at identifying spatial error on a single structured grid with a wide variety of neutron transport problems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mid-circuit correction of correlated phase errors using an array of spectator qubits

Scaling up invariably error-prone quantum processors is a formidable challenge. Although quantum error correction ultimately promises fault-tolerant operation, the required qubit overhead and error thresholds are daunting. In a complementary proposal, colocated, auxiliary “spectator” qubits act as in situ probes of noise and enable real-time, coherent corrections of data qubit errors. We used an array of cesium spectator qubits to correct correlated phase errors on an array of rubidium data qubits. By combining in-sequence readout, data processing, and feedforward operations, these correlated errors were suppressed within the execution of the quantum circuit. The protocol is broadly applicable to quantum information platforms and establishes key tools for scaling neutral-atom quantum processors: mid-circuit readout of atom arrays, real-time processing and feedforward, and coherent mid-circuit reloading of atomic qubits.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2014

Compiler-Assisted Detection of Transient Memory Errors

The probability of bit flips in hardware memory systems is projected to increase significantly as memory systems continue to scale in size and complexity. Effective hardware-based error detection and correction requires that the complete data path, involving all parts of the memory system, be protected with sufficient redundancy. First, this may be costly to employ on commodity computing platforms and second, even on high-end systems, protection against multi-bit errors may be lacking. Therefore, augmenting hardware error detection schemes with software techniques is of consider- able interest. In this paper, we consider software-level mechanisms to comprehensively detect transient memory faults. We develop novel compile-time algorithms to instrument application programs with checksum computation codes so as to detect memory errors. Unlike prior approaches that employ checksums on computational and architectural state, our scheme verifies every data access and works by tracking variables as they are produced and consumed. Experimental evaluation demonstrates that the proposed comprehensive error detection solution is viable as a completely software-only scheme. We also demonstrate that with limited hardware support, overheads of error detection can be further reduced.

def-use analysis↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cylindricity Error Evaluation Based on an Improved Harmony Search Algorithm

The cylindricity error is one of the basic form errors in mechanical parts, which greatly influences the assembly accuracy and service life of relevant parts. For the minimum zone method (MZM) in international standards, there is no specific formula to calculate the cylindricity error. Therefore, the evaluation methods of the cylindricity error under the MZM have been widely concerned by international scholars. To improve the evaluation accuracy and accelerate the iteration speed of the cylindricity, an improved harmony search (IHS) algorithm is proposed and applied to compute the cylindricity. On the basis of the standard harmony search algorithm, the logistic chaotic initialization is introduced into the generation of initial solution to improve the quality of solutions. During the iterative process, the global and local search capabilities are balanced by adopting the par and b w operators adaptively. After each iteration, the Cauchy mutation strategy is adopted to the best solution to further improve the calculation precision of the IHS algorithm. Finally, four test functions and three groups of cylindricity error examples were applied to validity verification of the IHS algorithm, the simulation test results show that the IHS algorithm has advantages of the computing accuracy and iteration speed compared with other traditional algorithms, and it is very effective for the application in the evaluation of the cylindricity error.

Yang, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Errors in the ERA5 Reanalysis with Machine Learning and 25 Years of Surface Observations

Earth system models struggle to simulate clouds and their radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, partly due to a lack of measurements and targeted cloud microphysics knowledge. We have evaluated biases of downwelling shortwave radiation in the ERA5 climate reanalysis using 25 years (1995–2019) of summertime surface measurements, collected on the Research and Supply Vessel (RSV) Aurora Australis, the Research Vessel (R/V) Investigator, and at Macquarie Island. During October–March daylight hours, the ERA5 simulation of SW down exhibited large errors (mean bias = 54 W m -2 , mean absolute error = 82 W m -2 , root-mean-square error = 132 W m -2 , and R 2 = 0.71). To determine whether we could improve these statistics, we bypassed ERA5’s radiative transfer model for SW down with machine learning–based models using a number of ERA5’s gridscale meteorological variables as predictors. These models were trained and tested with the surface measurements of SW down using a 10-fold shuffle split. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a random forest–based model setup had the best performance relative to ERA5, both with a near complete reduction of the mean bias error, a decrease in the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error by 25% ± 3%, and an increase in the R 2 value of 5% ± 1% over the 10 splits. Large improvements occurred at higher latitudes and cyclone cold sectors, where ERA5 performed most poorly. We further interpret our methods using Shapley additive explanations. Our results indicate that data-driven techniques could have an important role in simulating surface radiation fluxes and in improving reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Bulk-Density Representations of Branched Planar Ice Crystals: Errors in the Polarimetric Radar Variables

Abstract Recent interest in interpreting polarimetric radar observations of ice and evaluating microphysical model output with these observations has highlighted the importance of accurately computing the scattering of microwave radiation by branched planar ice crystals. These particles are often represented as spheroids with uniform bulk density, reduced from that of solid ice to account for the complex, nonuniform structure of natural branched crystals. In this study, the potential errors that arise from this assumption are examined by comparing scattering calculations of branched planar crystals with those of homogeneous, reduced-density plate crystals and spheroids with the same mass, aspect ratio, and maximum dimension. The results show that this assumption leads to significant errors in backscatter cross sections at horizontal and vertical polarization, specific differential phase (KDP), and differential reflectivity (ZDR), with the largest ZDR errors for ice crystals with the most extreme aspect ratios (<0.01) and effective densities < 250 kg m−3. For example, the maximum errors in X-band ZDR are 4.5 dB for 5.6-mm branched planar crystals. However, substantial errors are present at all weather radar frequencies, with resonance scattering effects at Ka and W band amplifying the low-frequency errors. The implications of these results on the interpretation of polarimetric radar observations and forward modeling of the polarimetric radar variables from microphysical model output are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simcenter TestLab Error in uploading reference profiles

Our team exports data from Matlab to a Simcenter TestLab formatted .mat file. The .mat file is then uploaded as a reference profile for Environmental Random Control vibration testing. Operations are applied to the data before export that introduce floating point errors. We are experiencing errors uploading the generated reference profiles if the frequency values have a certain level of floating point error (1 Hz vs 1.000000000000001 Hz). I generated some test cases of reference profiles that were giving us trouble, and outlined the errors we were seeing. Two different errors, depending on how the control frequency range is defined. Error is fixed by copy/pasting the frequency column in the Profile Editor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous mitigation of density and energy errors in approximate DFT for transition metal chemistry (Final Technical Report)

There were three major goals and objectives of this project: 1) Develop tools to understand density-driven errors in transition metal complexes, 2) Evaluate and minimize energy delocalization error and static correlation error through judicious functional choice, and 3) applying this workflow to machine-learning accelerated screening of redox couples. Over the reporting period, we developed a framework for eliminating flat plane errors. We introduced fully non-empirical coefficients. We demonstrated the approach on both molecules and solids. We investigated and eliminated density driven errors and demonstrated their impact on potential energy surfaces. We trained machine learning models both in a method-dependent fashion and to predict errors in method accuracy. We built large data sets of small molecule energetics and multi-reference character.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

The battle of clean and dirty qubits in the era of partial error correction

When error correction becomes possible it will be necessary to dedicate a large number of physical qubits to each logical qubit. Error correction allows for deeper circuits to be run, but each additional physical qubit can potentially contribute an exponential increase in computational space, so there is a trade-off between using qubits for error correction or using them as noisy qubits. In this work, we look at the effects of using noisy qubits in conjunction with noiseless qubits (an idealized model for error-corrected qubits), which we call the “clean and dirty” setup. We employ analytical models and numerical simulations to characterize this setup. Numerically we show the appearance of Noise-Induced Barren Plateaus (NIBPs), i.e., an exponential concentration of observables caused by noise, in an Ising model Hamiltonian variational ansatz circuit. We observe this even if only a single qubit is noisy and given a deep enough circuit, suggesting that NIBPs cannot be fully overcome simply by error-correcting a subset of the qubits. On the positive side, we find that for every noiseless qubit in the circuit, there is an exponential suppression in the concentration of gradient observables, showing the benefit of partial error correction. Finally, our analytical models corroborate these findings by showing that observables concentrate with a scaling in the exponent related to the ratio of dirty-to-total qubits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage solar and wind forecast error. Because solar and wind forecast errors tend to be weakly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the benefits of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeastern United States, in scenarios in which solar and wind generation ranges from 34% to 65% of total generation. It finds that day-ahead forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity (6%-10% of total capacity), but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce these requirements (by 6%-29%). It finds that, in economic terms, the value of forecast error reserve sharing ($\$$0.09-$\$$1.24 billion per year, $\$$0.12-$\$$1.68/MWh of load across scenarios) tends to decline with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower reserve and energy prices. Even with declines in reserve prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value, though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The battle of clean and dirty qubits in the era of partial error correction

When error correction becomes possible it will be necessary to dedicate a large number of physical qubits to each logical qubit. Error correction allows for deeper circuits to be run, but each additional physical qubit can potentially contribute an exponential increase in computational space, so there is a trade-off between using qubits for error correction or using them as noisy qubits. In this work we look at the effects of using noisy qubits in conjunction with noiseless qubits (an idealized model for error-corrected qubits), which we call the "clean and dirty" setup. We employ analytical models and numerical simulations to characterize this setup. Numerically we show the appearance of Noise-Induced Barren Plateaus (NIBPs), i.e., an exponential concentration of observables caused by noise, in an Ising model Hamiltonian variational ansatz circuit. We observe this even if only a single qubit is noisy and given a deep enough circuit, suggesting that NIBPs cannot be fully overcome simply by error-correcting a subset of the qubits. On the positive side, we find that for every noiseless qubit in the circuit, there is an exponential suppression in concentration of gradient observables, showing the benefit of partial error correction. Finally, our analytical models corroborate these findings by showing that observables concentrate with a scaling in the exponent related to the ratio of dirty-to-total qubits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1972

Analysis of instrumentation error effects on the identification accuracy of aircraft parameters

An analytical investigation is presented of the effect of unmodeled measurement system errors on the accuracy of aircraft stability and control derivatives identified from flight test data. Such error sources include biases, scale factor errors, instrument position errors, misalignments, and instrument dynamics. Two techniques (ensemble analysis and simulated data analysis) are formulated to determine the quantitative variations to the identified parameters resulting from the unmodeled instrumentation errors. The parameter accuracy that would result from flight tests of the F-4C aircraft with typical quality instrumentation is determined using these techniques. It is shown that unmodeled instrument errors can greatly increase the uncertainty in the value of the identified parameters. General recommendations are made of procedures to be followed to insure that the measurement system associated with identifying stability and control derivatives from flight test provides sufficient accuracy.

Sorensen, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Monte Carlo analysis of inaccuracies in estimated aircraft parameters caused by unmodeled flight instrumentation errors

An output error estimation algorithm was used to evaluate the effects of both static and dynamic instrumentation errors on the estimation of aircraft stability and control parameters. A Monte Carlo error analysis, using simulated cruise flight data, was performed for a high-performance military aircraft, a large commercial transport, and a small general aviation aircraft. The results indicate that unmodeled instrumentation errors can cause inaccuracies in the estimated parameters which are comparable to their nominal values. However, the corresponding perturbations to the estimated output response trajectories and characteristics equation pole locations appear to be relatively small. Control input errors and dynamic lags were found to be in the most significant of the error sources evaluated.

Hodge, W. F.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A Monte Carlo analysis of the effects of instrumentation errors on aircraft parameter identification

An output error estimation algorithm was used to evaluate the effects of both static and dynamic instrumentation errors on the estimation of aircraft stability and control parameters. A Monte Carlo analysis, using simulated cruise flight data, was performed for a high performance military aircraft, a large commercial transport, and a small general-aviation aircraft. The effects of variations in the information content of the flight data, resulting from two different choices of control input maneuvers, were also determined. The results indicate that unmodeled instrumentation errors can cause inaccuracies in the estimated parameters which are comparable to their nominal values. Control input errors and angular accelerometer lags were found to be most significant of the instrumentation errors evaluated, and the perturbations they produce are much larger than those arising from the combined effects of static errors and white noise in the output response measurements.

Bryant, W. H.↗