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DOE OSTI2025

Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning‐Based Earth System Models

Abstract Machine learning (ML) is a revolutionary technology with demonstrable applications across multiple disciplines. Within the Earth science community, ML has been most visible for weather forecasting, producing forecasts that rival modern physics‐based models. Given the importance of deepening our understanding and improving predictions of the Earth system on all time scales, efforts are now underway to develop Earth‐system models (ESMs) capable of representing all components of the coupled Earth system (or their aggregated behavior) and their response to external changes over long timescales. Building trust in ESMs is a much more difficult problem than for weather forecast models, not least because the model must represent the alternate (e.g., future or paleoclimatic) coupled states of the system for which there are no direct observations. Given that the physical principles that enable predictions about the response of the Earth system are often not explicitly coded in these ML‐based models, demonstrating the credibility of ML‐based ESMs thus requires us to build evidence of their consistency with the physical system. To this end, this paper puts forward five recommendations to enhance comprehensive, standardized, and independent evaluation of ML‐based ESMs to strengthen their credibility and promote their wider use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chapter 4: "Waste"-to-Energy for Decarbonization - Transforming Nut Shells Into Carbon-Negative Electricity

This chapter presents a study demonstrating waste pistachio nut shells as a renewable feedstock for climate-friendly electricity generation via industrial gasification technology. The study includes biomass feedstock characterization (i.e., pistachio waste critical material attributes), process variability (i.e., bulk material handling), and overall operational reliability and conversion performance through extended testing. Additionally, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were performed to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impact of the technology to transform agricultural waste to biopower. For processing pistachio waste material, among critical material attributes, fines content in the biomass (<1/4") had the largest potential to reduce the operating time of the gasifiers due to plugging. Pelletizing fines and co-feeding them with the mixed pistachio waste increased the average feed density, feed rate, and biochar production. Compared to pine wood chips, mixed pistachio waste yielded higher biochar quantity but slightly reduced quality. In general, a systematic Quality by Design methodology is the preferred approach for designing preprocessing and material conveyance systems, where a downstream technology (end user) for the produced intermediate is specified at the outset. TEA results show that the biochar production rate and selling price had an overwhelming impact on the modeled Minimum Electricity Selling Price (MESP), which ranged from 35.5 to 39.9 cents/kWh for the cases studied (16 h/day operational basis). Moreover, LCA results show that the valorization of pistachio shells for biopower generation is a "carbon negative" process that can help decarbonize the U.S. electricity grid. The specific carbon intensity was -0.29 to -0.71 kg CO2e/kWh, compared to 0.45 kg CO2e/kWh for the average U.S. electricity mix. Biochar production from pistachio waste as a potential means for carbon sequestration was a significant driver for the LCA. The highly stable biochar permanently sequesters a considerable fraction of biochar carbon in the ground, more than enough to offset the life cycle emissions, and can be a complementary climate change mitigation strategy.

bio-char↗

DOE OSTI2020

Environmental Impact Calculations for Geothermal DDU system on WVU Campus

This dataset contains all the inputs used and output produced from Matlab for the environmental analysis of an improved hybrid geothermal district heating and cooling (GDHC) system with a heat pump, without a heat pump, and for a hot water GDHC. Detailed descriptions of the contents of this repository are provided below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

BioGeoChemistry of Actinides (LLNL SFA OBER - SBR FY20 Program Management and Performance Report)

The focus of the BioGeoChemistry of Actinides SFA is to identify and quantify the biogeochemical processes and the underlying mechanisms that control actinide mobility in an effort to reliably predict and control the cycling and migration of actinides in the environment. The research approach includes: (1) Field Studies (Research Thrust 1) that capture actinide behavior on the timescale of decades and (2) Fundamental Laboratory Studies (Research Thrust 2) that isolate specific biogeochemical processes observed in the field. These research thrusts are underpinned by the unique capabilities and staff expertise at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), allowing the BioGeoChemistry of Actinides SFA to advance our understanding of actinide migration behavior in the environment, and serve as an international resource for environmental radiochemistry research (Figure 1). Research Thrusts 1 and 2 are guided by broad central hypotheses: Thrust 1 Hypothesis: Biogeochemical processes occurring on the timescale of years to decades lead to greater actinide recalcitrance in sediments and limit their migration in surface and groundwater. Thrust 2 Hypothesis: Long-term biogeochemical processes include mineral and surface alteration, which leads to stabilization of actinide surface associations or incorporation into mineral precipitates. Our strategic goal is to use the knowledge gained from our Science Plan to advance our understanding of the behavior of actinides, providing DOE with the scientific basis for remediation and long-term stewardship of DOE’s legacy sites and, more broadly, increasing our understanding of transport phenomena in environmental systems sciences with a particular emphasis on environmentally relevant (long-term) timescales. Although our focus is on actinide biogeochemistry, the increased focus on biogeochemistry at unique Test Bed locations associated with this SFA is providing fundamental information on redox processes and associated microbiological processes that control the cycling of redox sensitive metals under dynamic and transient biogeochemical conditions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2021

Materials and Fuels Complex: Five-Year Investment Strategy (FY2021-2025)

The Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) vision is to “Advance nuclear energy science and technology to meet U.S. energy, environmental, and economic needs.” The Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) serves as the foundation of a nuclear RD&D enabling test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and is an integral part of a National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) strategy. MFC facilities focus on developing and maintaining RD&D capabilities that can increase research throughput, reduce barriers to deployment, and facilitate commercialization of new ideas and technologies for clean and secure sources of energy.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Materials and Fuels Complex (FY22 – FY26 Five-Year Investment Strategy)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Materials and Fuels Complex FY-23 - FY-27: Five-Year Investment Strategy

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Long-duration Energy Storage Technology Analysis and Development

This project develops a new low-cost and flexible long-duration energy storage (LDES) technology based on simultaneous regeneration technology. In lieu of the technology development, the project team also conducts a complete cost analysis for LDES based on various currently available technologies, as well as grid economic and environmental benefits analysis for LDES. There are three tasks in this project: Task 1. Fe-H2 flow cell fabrication, testing, demonstration; Task 2. Dynamic modeling, simulation and control architecture of power system; Task 3. Cost and grid analysis.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Heterogeneity of Surface Water Temperature Following Stream Restoration and a High-Intensity Fire from Thermal Imagery

Thermal heterogeneity of rivers is essential to support freshwater biodiversity. Salmon behaviorally thermoregulate by moving from patches of warm water to cold water. When implementing river restoration projects, it is essential to monitor changes in temperature and thermal heterogeneity through time to assess the impacts to a river’s thermal regime. Lightweight sensors that record both thermal infrared (TIR) and multispectral data carried via unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs) present an opportunity to monitor temperature variations at high spatial (<0.5 m) and temporal resolution, facilitating the detection of the small patches of varying temperatures salmon require. Here, we present methods to classify and filter visible wetted area, including a novel procedure to measure canopy cover, and extract and correct radiant surface water temperature to evaluate changes in the variability of stream temperature pre- and post-restoration followed by a high-intensity fire in a section of the river corridor of the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon. We used a simple linear model to correct the TIR data by imaging a water bath where the temperature increased from 9.5 to 33.4 °C. The resulting model reduced the mean absolute error from 1.62 to 0.35 °C. We applied this correction to TIR-measured temperatures of wetted cells classified using NDWI imagery acquired in the field. We found warmer conditions (+2.6 °C) after restoration (p < 0.001) and median absolute deviation for pre-restoration (0.30) to be less than both that of post-restoration (0.85) and post-fire (0.79) orthomosaics. In addition, there was statistically significant evidence to support the hypothesis of shifts in temperature distributions pre- and post-restoration (KS test 2009 vs. 2019, p < 0.001, D = 0.99; KS test 2019 vs. 2021, p < 0.001, D = 0.10). Moreover, we used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that included spatial and environmental predictors (i.e., canopy cover calculated from multispectral NDVI and photogrammetrically derived digital elevation model) to model TIR temperature from a transect along the main river channel. This model explained 89% of the deviance, and the predictor variables showed statistical significance. Collectively, our study underscored the potential of a multispectral/TIR sensor to assess thermal heterogeneity in large and complex river systems.

Barker, Matthew I. (ORCID:0000000252864930)↗

DOE OSTI2021

A New Approach for Simultaneous Estimation of Entrainment and Detrainment Rates in Non- Precipitating Shallow Cumulus

A new approach is developed for estimating entrainment and detrainment rates in cumulus clouds based on aircraft observations. Equations relating entrainment and detrainment rates to gross entrainment and detrainment are derived. This approach is applied to the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems field campaign, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program. The results show that both entrainment and detrainment rates decrease with increasing height. Sensitivity tests with different detrained air assumptions yield similar results. The entrainment and detrainment rates can reproduce the cloud thermodynamic variables. Partial correlation analysis indicates that entrainment rate is positively correlated with environmental relative humidity (RH), and detrainment rate is negatively correlated with environmental RH and positively correlated with entrainment rate. This new approach can be applied to other cloud observations to obtain a data set of entrainment and detrainment rates in cumulus clouds.

Zhu, Lei↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding and Overcoming Water-induced Interfacial Degradation in Si Modules (Final Technical Report)

Moisture ingress is an established issue for photovoltaic module durability. Durability studies probing moisture effects typically evaluate performance losses at the module level, attributing global power losses to the overall humidity condition of the test environment while leaving local module behavior unknown. This project successfully develops an in situ short-wave infrared probe of moisture content in PV modules with demonstrated detection limits better than 100 ppm in EVA-encapsulated Al-BSF and PERC architectures (66 µg/cm3) and applicability across the range of terrestrial conditions. Combining this optical moisture quantification method (water reflectometry detection, WaRD) with peel testing of interfaces, biased photoluminescence imaging of performance, and first principles computation, we correlate module moisture content and cell performance over the course of accelerated damp heat tests. By performing multi-level humidity and thermal accelerated testing over thousands of hours (0, 65 and 85% RH and 25, 65, and 85°C), we are able to attribute effects of individual environmental stresses and the dependence on module architecture. Using first-principles computational chemistry, we find that the decomposition of EVA to acetic acid (Norrish II) is thermodynamically preferred over a pathway to acetaldehyde (Norrish I), elucidating the underlying chemistry of encapsulant degradation. We also find it is likely that water segregates to the stable interfaces of the cell, especially the SiNx/EVA interface. We find that moisture is strongly correlated with reduction in adhesion at the interfaces of the cells, particularly at Ag fingers. We show uniquely that the peel strength required to delaminate the encapsulant from the front of the cell depends not only on the exposure to a high heat and humid environment, but also to the moisture content during the mechanical testing, indicating an important interaction between when mechanical stresses are faced in terms of the moisture content of the module and its durability. We find that the background sheet resistance (that is, the sheet resistance rise not attributable to finger interruptions or cracks) is substantially higher in the backsheet mini-modules vs glass-glass packages when humidity and temperature are faced. This increase in power loss due to the background resistance increase over time in damp heat in glass-backsheet modules resulted in ~3-4% larger decrease in relative PCE compared to glass-glass modules. In glass-backsheet modules, the effect of the moisture dose alone is comparable or greater than that of the combined temperature and water term, suggesting that glass-backsheet modules are overall more susceptible to moisture induced performance loss. Finally, we show that thin film PV modules are amenable to WaRD measurement, based on the ability to detect moisture in POE encapsulants or in the cell stack itself. The ease of WaRD measurement and its few requirements on the bill of materials should enable broad applicability of this technique for studying the effects of moisture in PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Report on the Integration of Experimental and Modeling Data for Initial Equivalence Study of Microstructural Evolution in Irradiated LPBF 316SS

Advanced materials and manufacturing technologies are poised to improve the safety and design characteristics of nuclear technologies and meet US energy, environmental, and economic needs. In particular, metal additive manufacturing (AM) provides an opportunity to produce novel materials and component geometries, but their use is not without hurdles arising from the inherent microstructure variability that can result from the layer-by-layer build approach. Given the greater possible microstructure variability in AM materials—and the dearth of materials test reactors—it is impractical to rely solely on neutron irradiation studies to produce data for materials qualification for every possibility. This work within the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) Environmental Effects technical area contributes to the rapid qualification framework by developing a science-driven framework for the accelerated qualification of materials for nuclear environments. A key product of the Environmental Effects technical area of the AMMT program is the Licensing Approach with Ions and Neutrons (LAIN). This approach recognizes that whether using existing materials in new environments, newly developed materials tailored for these environments, or new manufacturing methods, the traditional decades-long approach for materials qualification does not facilitate rapid deployment. In FY 2023, the AMMT program presented a conceptual framework of specific steps to fulfill several technical challenges associated with qualifying materials for performance in radiation environments on an accelerated time frame informed by the state of the art in materials science and a review of the current regulatory landscape. The objective of this section of the Environmental Effects technical area is to critically evaluate and refine the proposed qualification framework presented under AMMT by integrating the research results of the neutron irradiations, the ion irradiations, and modeling efforts. These ongoing efforts span across Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and are closely coordinated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Section 110 Evaluation of Three Sites Associated with the Grable Test, Area 5, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

This report presents the results of a Section 110 recordation of the 280mm Atomic Gun emplacement and command post (CP) (26NY16244), an associated Flash Observation Point that was used to refine the gun’s firing range (26NY16243), and troop trenches used for Exercise Desert Rock V (26NY16242). All three of these resources are directly associated with the Grable test, a specific test in the Upshot-Knothole series of aboveground nuclear detonations. The Grable test occurred at 8:30 a.m. on May 25, 1953, in Area 5 of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Desert Research Institute (DRI) recommends 26NY16244 and 26NY16242 eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) under a combination of the Secretary of the Interior’s Significance Criteria A and D at the national level of significance and related to the era of Nuclear Testing and the Cold War. All three of these resources are recommended as contributing elements to the Frenchman Flat Historic District (SHPO Resource No. D204).

280mm Atomic Gun↗

DOE OSTI2023

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Experimental Test Site 300 (Site 300): Site 300 Roadway Improvements - 836 Complex Soil Sampling and Analysis Plan (May 2023)

This Soil Sampling and Analysis Plan (SAP) was prepared by the Environmental Functional Area (EFA)/Technical Services Department (TSD) of the Environment, Safety & Health (ES&H) Directorate for the Project Management Office (PMO) for the proposed Roadway Improvements Project at the 836 Complex (project). The purpose of the SAP is to describe the procedures for collection and analysis of environmental samples and evaluation of analytical data (chemical and radiological) to determine management options of excavated soil during project construction. This SAP follows criteria established in Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) Soils Screening and Management Plan (SSMP) (LLNL 2022), which was formalized in accordance with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidance for developing Data Quality Objectives for environmental data (EPA 2006) and the Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Site Investigation Manual (MARSSIM) guidance (U.S. NRC, U.S. EPA, U.S. DOE, and U.S. DOD 2000). The scope of this SAP is based on preliminary design information provided by PMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mercury Speciation During Vitrification of LAW

n this work, laboratory and engineering-scale tests were conducted that mimic the reactive environment of the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) low activity waste (LAW) melter and off-gas system in order to assess the speciation of mercury at select points in the processing system. The experimental protocols, test equipment, feed materials used, and rationale for testing are detailed in the Test Plan for this work. Particular attention was paid to the amount and speciation of mercury in submerged bed scrubber (SBS) solutions, which are intended to be recycled back to the melter feed at the WTP. Results are presented from detailed mercury analysis of these solutions using Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Method 1630 and modifications to this method for dimethyl mercury and methyl mercury as well as EPA Method 1631 and modifications to this method for total, dissolved, elemental, suspended, and ionic mercury. Testing was conducted in two separate sets of experiments: (1) One set of tests (crucible-scale furnace tests) that involved heating small batches of mercury-spiked melter feed in crucibles to determine the amount of mercury retained in the glass and the species of mercury in the exhaust gases; (2) A second set of tests (DM10 melter tests) was planned that involved creating LAW melter plenum gas compositions using the DM10 melter system, injecting mercury into the off-gas stream, and passing that stream though a reactor that simulates various plenum gas conditions. Operational issues led to the need to use one of the VSL DM100 melters in place of the planned DM10 melter for these tests. The speciation of mercury after exposure to those conditions was monitored. In both sets of tests, the exhaust gases were run through a scrubber that was intended to mimic the LAW SBS in order to determine how much of the mercury exiting the melter would be retained in the primary off-gas system fluids and in what form. After passing through the SBS, the exhaust stream was analyzed to determine particulate, ionic, elemental, and total mercury passing downstream of the SBS. In tests employing gases derived from the DM100 melter that were spiked with elemental mercury, the processing system provided gas temperatures and residence times that are representative of the WTP LAW vitrification system in order to assess the effect of those conditions on mercury speciation. The Decontamination Factor (DF) across the system in the tests with mercury-spiked DM100 melter exhaust was determined using the analytical data from EPA Method 30B (Fluegas Adsorption Mercury Speciation (FAMS TM )) exhaust samples and the amount of mercury detected in the SBS solutions. Mercury species used in melter feed crucible scale tests were divalent (chloride and iodide), monovalent (chloride and fluoride), and elemental mercury. Individual tests included only a single form of mercury in the feed. The results for total mercury mass balances in the crucible tests are also presented.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

R&D Outcomes of Surrogate Environmental Swipe Manufacturing Technique Method Development for Arms Control and Treaty Verification Applications

The analysis of environmental samples is a critical component of nuclear compliance verification and safeguards activities. While the associated particle analyses have benefitted from recent advances in the production of actinide-bearing particulates with uniform and well-characterized particle size, material phase, and isotopic ratios to serve as reference materials for calibration and interlaboratory comparisons, there is an outstanding need for surrogate environmental samples, which resemble field-collected samples, with the aforementioned reference particulates to support future nuclear compliance verification exercises and method development. This effort seeks to leverage the recent advances in tailored reference particle production to generate surrogate environmental swipe samples via parallel production techniques (direct and indirect) which are uniquely suited to the hydrothermal and aerosol-based synthesis routes developed at PNNL and SRNL, respectively. PNNL’s hydrothermal particle production method was used to generate surrogate reference particles for the indirect production of test swipes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

SD-WAN Evaluation Criteria for a Defense Information Systems Network Expeditionary Customer Edge

The Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) has identified a service provision gap midway between the capacity and capability of a Defense Information Systems Network (DISN) transport Edge Points of Presence (POP) and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Enterprise Classified Travel Kit (DECTK). Some deployed force 100-user Tactical Operations Centers are in field locations far removed from the DISN transport core, in challenging environmental conditions with limitations on space, weight, power, and cooling for network equipment. As part of a multi-phase project, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) will gather and analyze requirements, design, develop, prototype, and test a miniaturized and ruggedized DISN Customer Edge POP scaled to support approximately 100 users in a field Tactical Operations Center. An Expeditionary Customer Edge (ECE) will be more suitable for field deployment than a DISN transport Edge POP, using ruggedized hardware and network function virtualization (NFV) to operate in challenging field environmental conditions, plus reduce weight, power, and cooling requirements. A key enabling technology for ECE is Software Defined Wide Area Networking (SD-WAN). This document provides: • A brief overview of SD-WAN use cases and how they apply to ECE • How SD-WAN technology compares to existing networks like DISN that use Optical Transport Networking (OTN) and Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS) • SD-WAN functional requirements relevant to ECE • A description of an ECE Virtual Prototype, including simulated wide area network paths and a DISN-representative implementation of MPLS, in Cisco Modeling Labs • Detailed network flow walkthroughs • Evaluation criteria based on ECE-relevant SD-WAN functional requirements Finally, an appendix provides an informal evaluation of Speedify—a commercial retail Virtual Private Network service—against the ECE SD-WAN evaluation criteria.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reliability Assessment of Cooling Fans for PV Inverters: Testing, Modeling, and Case Studies

The reliability of photovoltaic (PV) inverters is critical for long-term solar system performance, with cooling fan failures frequently leading to costly downtime. While much research exists on general cooling fan reliability, little attention has been given to fans operating within PV inverters and their unique environmental challenges. Here, this article proposes a comprehensive methodology to address this gap. First, a failure mode and effects analysis is performed on fans to identify the key failure mechanisms in PV applications, their corresponding stressors, and the models necessary for lifetime prediction. Second, an accelerated life test is designed and conducted to collect valuable experimental data for PV inverter fans in a reasonable amount of time. Third, a mathematical conversion of dynamic mission profiles into effective constant stress levels is derived. Fourth, case studies are given, showcasing lifetime estimates that account for geographic variations in mission profile data. The results demonstrate that this integrated approach leads to an accurate reliability assessment for PV inverter cooling fans.

accelerated life testing (ALT)↗