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SMART Mobility. Mobility Decision Science Capstone Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The first three-year research phase of SMART Mobility occurred from 2017 through 2019, and included five research pillars: Connected and Automated Vehicles, Mobility Decision Science, Multi-Modal Freight, Urban Science, and Advanced Fueling Infrastructure. A sixth research thrust integrated aspects of all five pillars to develop a SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow to evaluate new transportation technologies and services at scale. This report summarizes the work of the Mobility Decision Science Pillar. The Mobility Decision Science Pillar sought to fill gaps in existing knowledge about the human role in the mobility system including travel decision-making and technology adoption in the context of future mobility. The objective was to study how underlying preferences, needs, and contextual factors might constrain or hasten future transportation system scenarios. For information about the other Pillars and about the SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow, please refer to the relevant pillar’s Capstone Report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

CERES BiDirectional Scans (BDS) data in HDF (CER_BDS_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV)

Each BiDirectional Scans (BDS) data product contains twenty-four hours of Level-1b data for each CERES scanner instrument mounted on each spacecraft. The BDS includes samples taken in normal and short Earth scan elevation profiles in both fixed and rotating azimuth scan modes (including space, internal calibration, and solar calibration views). The BDS contains Level-0 raw (unconverted) science and instrument data as well as the geolocated converted science and instrument data. The BDS contains additional data not found in the Level-0 input file, including converted satellite position and velocity data, celestial data, converted digital status data, and parameters used in the radiance count conversion equations. The following CERES BDS data sets are currently available: CER_BDS_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_BDS_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_BDS_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_BDS_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_BDS_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_BDS_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_BDS_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_BDS_Terra-FM2_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1997-12-27; Stop_Date=2006-11-02] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Temporal_Resolution=1 day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Daily - < Weekly].

WINDOW DETECTOR OUTPUT↗

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency and recovery dynamics during flash droughts: insights from observations and model simulations

Flash droughts (FD), rapidly emerging in a warming future, disrupt ecosystems, agriculture, and water security. Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE), the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to actual evapotranspiration (AET), balances carbon assimilation and water loss. FD rapidly disrupts this balance, making WUE critical for assessing plant stress and recovery. Here, this study investigates the dynamics of landscape-scale WUE, and the components of GPP and AET under FD utilizing both observed data from the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux site (US-MOz) and version 2 of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Earth, Energy, Exascale System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv2). Observations and simulations reveal GPP as dominant for WUE during earlier FD events (2005, 2007, 2012), shifting to AET in recent events (2014, 2018). This agreement indicates that the ELM can capture the shifting dynamics of GPP and AET in regulating WUE under FD conditions. However, the ELM systematically underestimates both GPP and AET and does so in a manner that does not preserve their ratio. As a result, WUE is also underestimated, suggesting that GPP is more strongly underestimated than AET. Furthermore, the ELM also underestimates the speed of GPP recovery, producing an artificially prolonged GPP recovery time following FD events. Observed environmental drivers such as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture (SM), and predawn leaf water potential (PLWP) effectively predict WUE, but ELM primarily highlights SM, underestimating VPD’s role. This study demonstrates that relying solely on soil moisture fails to capture the rapid hydraulic recovery observed in PLWP, underscoring the necessity of integrating plant hydraulics into land surface models to improve flash drought predictability.

Evapotranspiration↗

CERES Monthly Gridded Single Satellite Fluxes and Clouds (FSW) in HDF (CER_FSW_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2C)

The Monthly Gridded Radiative Fluxes and Clouds (FSW) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The FSW is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. All instantaneous fluxes from the CERES CRS product for a month are sorted by 1-degree spatial regions and by the Universal Time (UT) hour of observation. The mean of the instantaneous fluxes for a given region-hour bin is determined and recorded on the FSW along with other flux statistics and scene information. The mean adjusted fluxes at the four atmospheric levels defined by CRS are also included for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes. In addition, four cloud height categories are defined by dividing the atmosphere into four intervals with boundaries at the surface, 700-, 500-, 300-hPa, and the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA). The cloud layers from CRS are put into one of the cloud height categories and averaged over the region. The cloud properties are also column averaged and included on the FSW. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2005-12-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

NET FLUX↗

CERES BiDirectional Scans (BDS) data in HDF (CER_BDS_Aqua-FM3_Edition1)

Each BiDirectional Scans (BDS) data product contains twenty-four hours of Level-1b data for each CERES scanner instrument mounted on each spacecraft. The BDS includes samples taken in normal and short Earth scan elevation profiles in both fixed and rotating azimuth scan modes (including space, internal calibration, and solar calibration views). The BDS contains Level-0 raw (unconverted) science and instrument data as well as the geolocated converted science and instrument data. The BDS contains additional data not found in the Level-0 input file, including converted satellite position and velocity data, celestial data, converted digital status data, and parameters used in the radiance count conversion equations. The following CERES BDS data sets are currently available: CER_BDS_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_BDS_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_BDS_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_BDS_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_BDS_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_BDS_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_BDS_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_BDS_Terra-FM2_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1997-12-27; Stop_Date=2005-11-02] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Temporal_Resolution=1 day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Daily - < Weekly].

EOSDIS↗

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗

CERES Single Scanner Satellite Footprint, TOA, Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) data in HDF (CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2B)

The Single Scanner Footprint TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) product contains one hour of instantaneous Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SSF combines instantaneous CERES data with scene information from a higher-resolution imager such as Visible/Infrared Scanner (VIRS) on TRMM or Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua. Scene identification and cloud properties are defined at the higher imager resolution and these data are averaged over the larger CERES footprint. For each CERES footprint, the SSF contains the number of cloud layers and for each layer the cloud amount, height, temperature, pressure, optical depth, emissivity, ice and liquid water path, and water particle size. The SSF also contains the CERES filtered radiances for the total, shortwave (SW), and window (WN) channels and the unfiltered SW, longwave (LW), and WN radiances. The SW, LW, and WN radiances at spacecraft altitude are converted to Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) fluxes based on the imager defined scene. These TOA fluxes are used to estimate surface fluxes. Only footprints with adequate imager coverage are included on CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Subset_Edition1the SSF which is much less than the full set of footprints on the CERES ES-8 product. The following CERES SSF data sets are currently available: CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition1 CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Subset_Edition1 CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2A CER_SSF_TRMM-SIM-VIRS_Edition2_VIRSonly CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2A-TransOps CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B-TransOps CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition1A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition1A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2A CER_SSF_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Aqua-FM4-MODIS_Beta1 CER_SSF_Aqua-FM3-MODIS_Beta2 CER_SSF_Aqua-FM4-MODIS_Beta2. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2005-12-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Temporal_Resolution=1 hour; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily].

SURFACE (RADIATIVE) FLUX↗

A machine learning approach targeting parameter estimation for plant functional type coexistence modeling using ELM-FATES (v2.0)

Tropical forest dynamics play a crucial role in the global carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, realistically simulating the dynamics of competition and coexistence between different plant functional types (PFTs) in tropical forests remains a significant challenge. This study aims to improve the modeling of PFT coexistence in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a vegetation demography model implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM), ELM-FATES. Specifically, we explore (1) whether plant trait relationships established from field measurements can constrain ELM-FATES simulations and (2) whether machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models can emulate the complex ELM-FATES model and optimize parameter selections to improve PFT coexistence modeling. We conducted three ensembles of ELM-FATES experiments at a tropical forest site near Manaus, Brazil. By comparing the ensemble experiments without (Exp-CTR) and with (Exp-OBS) consideration of observed trait relationships, we found that accounting for these relationships slightly improves the simulations of water, energy, and carbon variables when compared to observations but degrades the simulation of PFT coexistence. Using ML-based surrogate models trained on Exp-CTR, we optimized the trait parameters in ELM-FATES and conducted another ensemble of experiments (Exp-ML) with these optimized parameters. The proportion of PFT coexistence experiments significantly increased from 21 % in Exp-CTR to 73 % in Exp-ML. After filtering the experiments that allow for PFT coexistence to agree with observations (within 15 % tolerance), 33 % of the Exp-ML experiments were retained, which is a significant improvement compared to the 1.4 % in Exp-CTR. Exp-ML also accurately reproduces the annual means and seasonal variations in water, energy, and carbon fluxes and the field inventory of aboveground biomass. This study represents a reproducible method that utilizes machine learning to identify parameter values that improve model fidelity against observations and PFT coexistence in vegetation demography models for diverse ecosystems. Our study also suggests the need for new mechanisms to enhance the robust simulation of coexisting plants in ELM-FATES and has significant implications for modeling the response and feedbacks of ecosystem dynamics to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CERES Single Scanner Satellite Footprint, TOA, Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) data in HDF (CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B)

The Single Scanner Footprint TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) product contains one hour of instantaneous Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SSF combines instantaneous CERES data with scene information from a higher-resolution imager such as Visible/Infrared Scanner (VIRS) on TRMM or Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua. Scene identification and cloud properties are defined at the higher imager resolution and these data are averaged over the larger CERES footprint. For each CERES footprint, the SSF contains the number of cloud layers and for each layer the cloud amount, height, temperature, pressure, optical depth, emissivity, ice and liquid water path, and water particle size. The SSF also contains the CERES filtered radiances for the total, shortwave (SW), and window (WN) channels and the unfiltered SW, longwave (LW), and WN radiances. The SW, LW, and WN radiances at spacecraft altitude are converted to Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) fluxes based on the imager defined scene. These TOA fluxes are used to estimate surface fluxes. Only footprints with adequate imager coverage are included on CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Subset_Edition1the SSF which is much less than the full set of footprints on the CERES ES-8 product. The following CERES SSF data sets are currently available: CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition1 CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Subset_Edition1 CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2A CER_SSF_TRMM-SIM-VIRS_Edition2_VIRSonly CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2A-TransOps CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B-TransOps CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition1A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition1A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2A CER_SSF_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Aqua-FM4-MODIS_Beta1 CER_SSF_Aqua-FM3-MODIS_Beta2 CER_SSF_Aqua-FM4-MODIS_Beta2. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=1998-04-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Temporal_Resolution=1 hour; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily].

CLOUD LAYER AREA↗

Electrification of Pakistan's Transport System: Modeling Electric Vehicle Penetration and Energy Supply Chain Impacts

Initial analysis of the National Electric Vehicle Policy (NEVP) of Pakistan was undertaken by an integrated energy planning team from November 2019 through August 2020. This technical reference document seeks to present the background, inputs and assumptions, methodology, and results of the policy analysis in detail. The intended audience is the technical modeler, analyst, or reviewer who seeks to understand specifically the modeling effort within this initial analytical phase, with the end-goal of interpreting, re-producing, or modifying the simulations or extending the models to conduct follow-on studies subsequently. These studies may examine in greater detail the energy sector, impacts to emissions, charging station infrastructure needs, and overall benefits-cost trade of the policy, among other areas of interest.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

CERES Single Satellite Footprint, TOA and Surface Fluxes, Clouds (SSF) data in HDF (CER_SSF_Aqua-FM3-MODIS_Edition2A)

The Single Scanner Footprint TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) product contains one hour of instantaneous Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SSF combines instantaneous CERES data with scene information from a higher-resolution imager such as Visible/Infrared Scanner (VIRS) on TRMM or Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua. Scene identification and cloud properties are defined at the higher imager resolution and these data are averaged over the larger CERES footprint. For each CERES footprint, the SSF contains the number of cloud layers and for each layer the cloud amount, height, temperature, pressure, optical depth, emissivity, ice and liquid water path, and water particle size. The SSF also contains the CERES filtered radiances for the total, shortwave (SW), and window (WN) channels and the unfiltered SW, longwave (LW), and WN radiances. The SW, LW, and WN radiances at spacecraft altitude are converted to Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) fluxes based on the imager defined scene. These TOA fluxes are used to estimate surface fluxes. Only footprints with adequate imager coverage are included on CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Subset_Edition1the SSF which is much less than the full set of footprints on the CERES ES-8 product. The following CERES SSF data sets are currently available: CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition1 CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Subset_Edition1 CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2A CER_SSF_TRMM-SIM-VIRS_Edition2_VIRSonly CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2A-TransOps CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B-TransOps CER_SSF_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition1A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition1A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2A CER_SSF_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2A CER_SSF_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2B CER_SSF_Aqua-FM4-MODIS_Beta1 CER_SSF_Aqua-FM3-MODIS_Beta2 CER_SSF_Aqua-FM4-MODIS_Beta2. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2006-01-01] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Temporal_Resolution=1 hour; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily].

CLOUD INFRARED EMISSIVITY↗

NGEE Arctic Authorship Guidelines

Authorship Guidelines were developed to help facilitate trust among team members as we span multiple institutions, scientific disciplines, and career stages. NGEE Arctic was built on a foundation of open science, data sharing, and collaboration. In Phase 4 of the project, it was particularly important to keep this foundation in mind as we develop new collaborations across the Arctic. Included in this package is one *.pdf. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

Iversen, Colleen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000182933450)↗

CERES Monthly Gridded Single Satellite TOA and Surfaces/Clouds (SFC) data in HDF (CER_SFC_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2A)

The Monthly Gridded TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SFC is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. All instantaneous shortwave, longwave, and window fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) and surface from the CERES SSF product for a month are sorted by 1-degree spatial regions and by the local hour of observation. The mean of the instantaneous fluxes for a given region-hour bin is determined and recorded on the SFC along with other flux statistics and scene information. These average fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes. The regional cloud properties are column averaged and are included on the SFC. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2003-12-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=100] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 hour; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily].

LIQUID WATER PATH↗

Impact of a New Cloud Microphysics Parameterization on the Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems in E3SM

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are one of the most climatically significant forms of convection because of their large role in water and energy cycles. The mesoscale features associated with MCS are difficult to represent in climate models because the relevant dynamics and physics are absent or poorly represented with coarse model resolution (∼100 km). Using a regionally refined model (RRM) with 0.25° grid spacing embedded in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we explore the impact of cloud microphysics parameterizations on the simulation of precipitation, particularly MCS precipitation over the contiguous United States. The Predicted Particle Properties (P3) cloud microphysics scheme has been modified and implemented into E3SM to overcome the limitations of the default Morrison and Gettelman (MG2) scheme in which rimed precipitating ice particles (graupel/hail) are absent and frozen particles are artificially partitioned into cloud ice and snow. We show that P3 improves the simulation of precipitation statistics including frequency distribution compared with MG2 with a limited effect on the diurnal cycle. P3 predicts higher hourly rain rates, resulting in 20% more MCSs and a higher total MCS precipitation (4.4%) compared to MG2, agreeing better with observations. The improvements with P3 mainly result from improved representations of ice microphysics, which not only produces higher rain rates through melting but also leads to a stronger large‐scale ascending motion by releasing more latent heating. This study suggests that improving microphysics parameterization is important for simulating MCS precipitation as future climate model resolutions continue to increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An interregional optimization approach for time series aggregation in continent-scale electricity system models

Modeling electric power systems with high shares of weather-dependent resources requires tradeoffs between temporal, spatial, and operational resolution. Many studies perform time series aggregation using clustering algorithms to reduce the temporal dimension, but when modeling continent-scale electricity systems that are large enough to contain multiple independent weather systems, this approach requires large numbers of representative periods to minimize errors in regional wind and solar capacity factors. Here, a new optimization-based approach for representative period selection and weighting is introduced that minimizes regional errors in average renewable capacity factors and electricity demand. The method delivers higher regional fidelity with fewer representative periods than alternative clustering methods when applied to wind, solar, and demand profiles for the contiguous United States. When representative periods are selected from multiple weather years, the optimized method reproduces regional averages with lower error than a complete 365-day time series from any single weather year. The method identifies only representative (as opposed to outlying) periods but can be combined with an iterative "stress period" identification approach to guide efficient decision-making considering both average and high-risk weather conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Transforming Energy through Computational Science: Computing for Clean Energy

This fact sheet discusses the opportunity space for NREL's computational science capabilities to address national clean energy objectives. Achieving a carbon-free power sector by 2035 as a step towards a decarbonized U.S. energy economy in 2050 will require major advances in power generation, autonomous energy systems, transportation, and buildings/communities. Development of integrated modeling approaches for complex energy systems will be essential for deployment. Success requires developments in optimization and control theory, complemented by machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), all of which in turn need targeted investments in breadth and scale of computing. This document defines an opportunity space where: embracing computing can link established research and development (R&D) to a decarbonization agenda; pursuing emerging approaches can accelerate the pace of technology advancement across the portfolio; and leading by example could reduce the carbon footprint of computing worldwide.

advanced computing↗

Integrating Tide‐Driven Wetland Soil Redox and Biogeochemical Interactions Into a Land Surface Model

Abstract Redox processes, aqueous and solid‐phase chemistry, and pH dynamics are key drivers of subsurface biogeochemical cycling and methanogenesis in terrestrial and wetland ecosystems but are typically not included in terrestrial carbon cycle models. These omissions may introduce errors when simulating systems where redox interactions and pH fluctuations are important, such as wetlands where saturation of soils can produce anoxic conditions and coastal systems where sulfate inputs from seawater can influence biogeochemistry. Integrating cycling of redox‐sensitive elements could therefore allow models to better represent key elements of carbon cycling and greenhouse gas production. We describe a model framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) with PFLOTRAN biogeochemistry, allowing geochemical processes and redox interactions to be integrated with land surface model simulations. We implemented a reaction network including aerobic decomposition, fermentation, sulfate reduction, sulfide oxidation, methanogenesis, and methanotrophy as well as pH dynamics along with iron oxide and iron sulfide mineral precipitation and dissolution. We simulated biogeochemical cycling in tidal wetlands subject to either saltwater or freshwater inputs driven by tidal hydrological dynamics. In simulations with saltwater tidal inputs, sulfate reduction led to accumulation of sulfide, higher dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, lower dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and lower methane emissions than simulations with freshwater tidal inputs. Model simulations compared well with measured porewater concentrations and surface gas emissions from coastal wetlands in the Northeastern United States. These results demonstrate how simulating geochemical reaction networks can improve land surface model simulations of subsurface biogeochemistry and carbon cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CERES) Monthly Gridded Single Satellite Fluxes and Clouds (FSW) in HDF (CER_FSW_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2C)

The Monthly Gridded Radiative Fluxes and Clouds (FSW) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The FSW is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. All instantaneous fluxes from the CERES CRS product for a month are sorted by 1-degree spatial regions and by the Universal Time (UT) hour of observation. The mean of the instantaneous fluxes for a given region-hour bin is determined and recorded on the FSW along with other flux statistics and scene information. The mean adjusted fluxes at the four atmospheric levels defined by CRS are also included for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes. In addition, four cloud height categories are defined by dividing the atmosphere into four intervals with boundaries at the surface, 700-, 500-, 300-hPa, and the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA). The cloud layers from CRS are put into one of the cloud height categories and averaged over the region. The cloud properties are also column averaged and included on the FSW. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2001-10-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

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