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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Case Study: Hybrid Carbon Conversion Using Low-Carbon Energy Sources in Coal-Producing States

The demand for more carbon efficient power sources and a decrease in natural gas prices has decreased the desire for coal power. This decrease in demand has led to massive job losses in coal mining regions over the past decade. The purpose of this project is to develop a hybrid energy system utilizing both a coal power plant and advanced reactor, which is competitive with natural gas by improving on profitability and decreasing carbon emissions. This report details the problem with a summary of the impact on the coal industry and the availability of renewable energy sources in the Appalachian region. Because of the geography of the region, variable renewable energy sources are not available without significant size and siting restrictions. However, biomass in the form of wood waste is abundant and can be used as a carbon neutral energy source. Combining biomass and coal processing, in addition to thermal power plants, can increase system profits and efficiency by providing peaking power and conversion opportunities for secondary markets. The electric load is based on publicly available demand data from Appalachian Power, which services the western Virginia and southern West Virginia in the Appalachian region. The demand information is combined by service, normalized, and scaled to an average demand of 1000 kW, which will be the basis for sizing the hybrid energy system. A traditional screening curve analysis for a coal plant and advanced reactor shows that the least cost design varies significantly based on the assumed discount rate and capital recovery period. An optimization program to size the design in TEAL based on the load curve gives 10 optimal designs, all with a negative resulting net present value (NPV) and a coal plant capacity of less than 15%. Including profits from selling captured carbon at a flat rate results in a positive NPV; however, the coal capacity factor only increases to about 40%. There are limitations with this optimization as well since the price of CO2 is likely to decrease as more is sold to the conversion market. The suggested design will combine coal power, an advanced reactor, and coal and biomass coprocessing to produce a variety of products that can be sold to the conversion market while increasing system efficiency. The analysis of conversion pathways for coal and biomass reveals that multiple options will need to be included in the analysis to produce the optimal system design. Three systems will be optimized and compared to determine the best design based on the figures of merit of total NPV and cost of carbon avoided. The first system will include a coal power plant and an advanced reactor that will sell electricity to the grid to meet demand and sell captured carbon to the conversion market. The second system adds a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant, which will utilize electricity during times of low demand to produce hydrogen and sell it to the conversion market. The third system adds biomass and coal processing with options for hydrocarbon oils, syngas to be produced for the conversion market, and electricity generation to power components within the system or provide peaking power. This analysis will be based on a new approach that combines traditional screening curve methods with a dispatch algorithm that optimizes the system based on the opportunity cost of different production options. The resulting optimization algorithm should provide results with less processing time than HERON’s decision tree method. The results from this analysis will determine an optimal design and reinforce the benefits of coal power when used in a hybrid energy system. The initial results show that the addition of a secondary market for carbon sales could result in a positive NPV and increases the capacity factor of the coal plant as compared to a design with only sales to the electricity market. The addition of more markets and additional coal consumption from biomass coprocessing could increase NPV further, replace carbon in other markets through the sale of biomass-derived hydrocarbons, and demonstrate the value of coal power technology.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Growth of Native Oxides of Niobium Thin Films for Superconducting Qubits with Etching Chemistry

Niobium thin films have been broadly applied in building superconducting qubits for quantum computing hardware. While improvements have been made by device engineering efforts, scaling the energy-sensitive quantum system requires materials study for further improvements. In this study, we performed XPS and ToF-SIMS analysis for Nb thin films across samples with different manufacturing techniques. By varying the air exposure time of the samples, this research comparatively investigates the chemical and depth profile of native oxides before and after the etching process. We observe a rapid logarithmic growth of oxide thickness across all samples and the dominant presence and growth of Niobium pentoxide in atomic percentage concentration on the surface. This comparative study provides insight into oxides mitigation strategies and correlation with qubits performance.

Lei, Zhicheng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrostatic and Non‐Hydrostatic Baroclinic Instability in the Dynamical Core of the DOE Global Climate Model

Abstract The dynamical core of the Department of Energy global climate model is used to understand the role of non‐hydrostatic dynamics in the simulation of dry and moist baroclinic waves. To reduce computational cost, the Diabatic Acceleration and REscaling approach is adopted. Scale analysis and numerical simulations suggest that the model solution is not distorted by the change of spherical metric terms due to the change of Earth radius, neither are the inter‐scale interactions strongly altered as indicated by the analysis of spectral flux. Compared with hydrostatic simulations, the onset of baroclinic instability is delayed under non‐hydrostatic dynamics as the associated weaker vertical motions tend to increase the critical wavelength and narrow the range of waves that can be baroclinically unstable. During the development of baroclinic waves, non‐hydrostatic dynamics tends to induce vertical motions in the upper troposphere, accelerating the eastward propagation of upper‐level ridges through their impact on local vorticity tendency. These processes reduce the westward tilt of the vertical ridge axes and suppress the conversion of mean flow available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy, leading to weaker baroclinic eddies than in hydrostatic simulations. The contrasts between hydrostatic and non‐hydrostatic settings hold in supplemental experiments that vary the background flow Rossby number, the amount of water vapor content and vertical resolution. We also find that mesoscale and smaller‐scale activities can be considerably under‐represented when the vertical resolution is limited to that typically used in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Durable, High-Performance Unitized Reversible Fuel Cells Based on Proton Conductors

The main objective of this project was to develop robust, highly efficient, and economically viable H + -conducting membrane-based, unitized reversible fuel cell (H-URFC) technology for large-scale co-located energy storage and power generation. Another objective of this project is to gain a profound understanding of the degradation mechanisms of key stack materials and interfaces using various in situ, ex situ, and operando measurements guided by theoretical analysis. Nanostructured components will be integrated into cell design and the interfaces between electrodes and electrolyte will be modified with active bi-functional catalysts and protective coatings in order to achieve >70% roundtrip efficiency at 1 A/cm2 in both the fuel cell and the electrolysis modes. The end goal of the project is to advance the technology to the point that a university-industry collaboration can be established to scale up the technology for early adoption, and eventually enabling a pathway to large-scale energy storage that utilizes chemical storage and conversion for electrical grid balancing.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1998

Miniature High-Let Radiation Spectrometer for Space and Avionics Applications

This paper reports on the design and characterization of a small, low power, and low weight instrument, a High-LET Radiation Spectrometer (HiLRS), that measures energy deposited by heavy ions in microelectronic devices. The HILRS operates on pulse-height analysis principles and is designed for space and avionics applications. The detector component in the instrument is based on large scale arrays of p-n junctions. In this system, the pulse amplitude from a particle hit is directly proportional to the particle LET. A prototype flight unit has been fabricated and calibrated using several heavy ions with varying LETs and protons with several energies. The unit has been delivered to the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) c/o the Air Force Research Laboratory in Albuquerque, NM, for integration into the military Space Technology Research Vehicle (STRV), a US-UK cooperative mission. Another version of HILRS is being prepared for delivery in April to the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) project, to fly on the HST Orbital Systems Test (HOST) Platform on a shuttle mission.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Janus Superiority of Membranes in Chemical Engineering and Beyond

Janus configurations, characterized by their inherent asymmetry, enable directional mass transfer in membrane materials that drive novel and energy-efficient chemical processes. This Janus superiority spans applications from nanoscale molecular and ionic transport to macro-scale separation systems with asymmetric spatial architectures. This review provides an analysis of the material foundations including design principles, structure regulation, and scalability challenges underlying Janus membranes. Here, we explore the physics that governs their unique behavior and examine their diverse applications across chemical engineering, including phase transfer, and molecular or ionic transport. Through a multiscale perspective, we provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of Janus superiority in advancing chemical engineering technologies. Finally, we discuss the hurdles in translating theoretical advances into practical applications and propose promising avenues for future research to harness the full potential of Janus membranes and systems in addressing global challenges related to energy, sustainability, and beyond.

Yang, Hao‐Cheng [Zhejiang University, Hangzhou (Ch↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-moisture pelleting of corn stover using pilot- and commercial-scale systems: Impact of moisture content, L / D ratio and hammer mill screen size on pellet quality and energy consumption

Here, high-moisture pelleting of corn stover was tested in pilot- and commercial-scale systems. For the pilot-scale study, a 6.35 mm screen size hammer mill ground corn stover was reconditioned to moisture between 14 and 29.6% (w.b.), and 5, 7 and 9 L/D ratio pellet die were used. At 29% corn stover moisture content and L/D ratios of 5 and 9, the bulk density and durability of the pellets were ≤450 kg/m 3 and <90% and >540 kg/m 3 and >90%, respectively. Increasing the feedstock moisture and L/D ratio increased the pelleting energy. Increasing the hammer mill screen size to 11.11 mm reduced the bulk density but not the durability. The response surface models adequately described the pelleting process (R 2 ≥ 0.88), and analysis of variance showed a strong interaction between the process variables and pellet properties. Commercial-scale testing of high-moisture pelleting using 6.35 mm ground corn stover bales in the moisture range 24–26% (w.b.) produced pellets with a density of >675 kg/m 3 and durability of >98%, whereas increasing the hammer mill screen size to 11.11 mm reduced the bulk density by about 100 kg/m 3 but not the durability. The energy consumption of the commercial-scale unit operations for the high-moisture pelleting process was in the range 98–124 kW h/ton, which is 64–72% less energy than conventional pelleting that requires energy about 350 kW h/ton for biomass drying from 30% (w.b.) to 10% (w.b.) moisture content before pelleting. Pellets produced using high-moisture pelleting met International Organization for Standardization and Pellets Fuel Institute international standards. Published 2023. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adapting Existing Energy Planning, Simulation, and Operational Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate indicators and metrics for resilience, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. Given the complexity of resilience analyses and mitigation strategies, there is limited value in attempting to identify a single resilience metric, as no one metric can quantify resilience or its associated value for all stakeholders. Instead, a necessary focus of the research community should lie in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing that implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics are challenges that need to be addressed, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) dedicated staff and time to researching how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools, as part of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strain energy-based fatigue failure analyses of LB-PBF Inconel 718: Effect of build orientation

Additively manufactured Inconel 718 parts fabricated in three build orientations (horizontal, vertical, and angled at 45 degrees) are tested in fully-reversed bending fatigue mode. Damping measurements via the Impulse Excitation technique are used to assess the defects content in the microstructure and fractography analysis is performed to detect the root cause of failure. Two micro- and macro-scale methodologies of fatigue damage estimation based on the dissipated heat per cycle and the statistical estimation of micro-plastic strain energies are used to assess fatigue damage. It is shown that at a given stress level, the vertically built specimens endure the most fatigue damage before failure while the diagonally built ones sustain the least. As a result, the fatigue life is estimated for arbitrary load amplitudes via a microstructure-sensitive algorithm with acceptable accuracy as compared to the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Progress Toward Fast Decay Energy Spectroscopy for Actinide Analysis

Decay energy spectroscopy (DES) is an increasingly popular technique for measuring isotopic composition of actinide samples for nuclear safeguards applications. Current approaches for actinide DES utilize milligram-scale external gold absorbers (> 0.1 nJ/K) that are integrated with actinide samples through mechanical kneading and are thermally connected to microcalorimeters using indium or gold wire bonds. This leads to relatively slow sensor rise time and, consequently, limits counting speed to a few counts per second. We are developing faster metallic magnetic calorimeter-based DES by integrating actinide samples with magnetic sensor materials. This reduces signal rise time and enables high counting speed while maintaining the ability to knead the radioactive source with the absorber. We have measured signal rise time of 0.7 μs with a 1.5 mg external gold absorber using this approach. Here, we also demonstrated online DES operation using an Ortec DSPEC 50, a commercially available data acquisition system developed for semiconductor detectors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

SCALE capabilities for high temperature gas-cooled reactor analysis

The SCALE code system’s ability to address stochastic distributions of fuel particles within a graphite matrix has been revisited in both multigroup (MG) features and continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo methods. Furthermore, this paper describes current and emergent SCALE capabilities within the CSAS sequence to address double-heterogeneous systems and presents verification and validation studies of these methods and data. Good agreement was obtained for a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) fuel pebble model between CSAS MG eigenvalue calculations and corresponding CE reference solutions. Code-to-code comparisons for this HTGR pebble model showed good agreement of CSAS-KENO and CSAS-Shift CE calculations and the Serpent and MCNP codes in terms of eigenvalues and reaction rate ratios. Validation studies based on two HTGR experiments resulted in good agreement between MG and CE results, as well as between experiment and calculation, although the level of agreement was significantly influenced by the applied ENDF/B nuclear data library.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2008

Fast Plasma Instrument for MMS: Simulation Results

Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission will study small-scale reconnection structures and their rapid motions from closely spaced platforms using instruments capable of high angular, energy, and time resolution measurements. The Dual Electron Spectrometer (DES) of the Fast Plasma Instrument (FPI) for MMS meets these demanding requirements by acquiring the electron velocity distribution functions (VDFs) for the full sky with high-resolution angular measurements every 30 ms. This will provide unprecedented access to electron scale dynamics within the reconnection diffusion region. The DES consists of eight half-top-hat energy analyzers. Each analyzer has a 6 deg. x 11.25 deg. Full-sky coverage is achieved by electrostatically stepping the FOV of each of the eight sensors through four discrete deflection look directions. Data compression and burst memory management will provide approximately 30 minutes of high time resolution data during each orbit of the four MMS spacecraft. Each spacecraft will intelligently downlink the data sequences that contain the greatest amount of temporal structure. Here we present the results of a simulation of the DES analyzer measurements, data compression and decompression, as well as ground-based analysis using as a seed re-processed Cluster/PEACE electron measurements. The Cluster/PEACE electron measurements have been reprocessed through virtual DES analyzers with their proper geometrical, energy, and timing scale factors and re-mapped via interpolation to the DES angular and energy phase-space sampling measurements. The results of the simulated DES measurements are analyzed and the full moments of the simulated VDFs are compared with those obtained from the Cluster/PEACE spectrometer using a standard quadrature moment, a newly implemented spectral spherical harmonic method, and a singular value decomposition method. Our preliminary moment calculations show a remarkable agreement within the uncertainties of the measurements, with the results obtained by the Cluster/PEACE electron spectrometers. The data analyzed was selected because it represented a potential reconnection event as currently published.

Figueroa-Vinas, Adolfo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fabrication, Modeling, and Testing of a Prototype for Particle Thermal Energy Storage Containment

Increasing penetration of variable renewable energy resources requires the deployment of energy storage at a range of durations. Long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies will fulfill the need to firm variable renewable energy resource output throughout the year. Conventional electrochemical batteries (e.g., lithium-ion) are uneconomical in this role due to high energy capacity costs. Thermal energy storage (TES) is one promising technology for LDES applications because of its siting flexibility and ease of scaling. Particle-based TES systems use low-cost solid particles that have higher temperature limits than the molten salts used in traditional concentrated solar power systems. A key component in particle-based TES systems is the containment silo for the high-temperature (> 1100 degrees C) particles. This study combined experimental testing and computational modeling methods to design and characterize the performance of a particle containment silo for LDES applications. A containment silo prototype was built at a laboratory scale and used to validate a congruent transient finite element analysis (FEA) model. The validation compared the actual and predicted temperature profile through the prototype over six days as the particles cooled from their initial temperature. The performance of a commercial scale (> 5 GWhth) was then characterized using the validated model. The transient FEA model was subject to several charge-discharge cycles to mimic a possible operating schedule. The commercial-scale model predicted a storage efficiency in excess of 95% after five days of storage with a design storage temperature of 1200 degrees C. Insulation material and concrete temperature limits were considered as well. The validation of the methodology means the FEA model can simulate a range of scenarios for future applications. This work supports the development of a promising LDES technology with implications for grid-scale electrical energy storage, but also for thermal energy storage for industrial process heating applications.

ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated protonic ceramic electrochemical cell for sustainable energy economy using water-energy nexus framework

Reliance on fossil fuels will continue for the next decades even though there are global pushes away from it to mitigate the overarching climate challenge, most especially by its highest consumers and availability. While there is a hastening global shift away from fossil fuel, integrating its assets into this technology helps limit the risk and future losses of stranded assets and reduce the cost of investment in the new technologies. Moreover, the generation of electricity from intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind has witnessed a significant surge in recent years, leading to a pressing demand for practical energy storage systems. Electrical energy storage is anticipated to play a pivotal role in the future global energy system, facilitating load-leveling operations to support the greater integration of renewable and distributed generation. Reversible electrochemical cells (RECs) offer a promising option for addressing the fossil fuel assets integration and energy storage challenges through the interconversion between electrical and chemical energy and concurrent utilizing carbon emission. In their electrolysis mode, the RECs convert electricity into durable, storable, and portable valuable chemical fuels such as syngas and methane. Conversely, the produced chemical fuels can be used as reactants in the fuel cell mode to generate electricity on demand with minimal (hydrocarbons) or zero when H2 or NH3 is used emissions. However, a challenging goal for this type of technology remains to achieve optimal operation and high roundtrip efficiencies, which has hindered the deployment of previous electrochemical cells. This dissertation demonstrates how reversible protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (RePCECs) can be integrated with fossil fuel power plants and renewable energy sources as a potential energy storage system. In this work, integrated RePCEC systems are designed and examined using computational modeling at scales to determine appropriate system configurations and operating conditions that achieve high roundtrip efficiencies. Cell level design of the PCEC is the first approach, several cells are assembled for the stack level model that is integrated into combined cycle powerplant and solar photovoltaic for the system level model. After critical literature review, this answered the operational and integration research questions proposed to address these challenges. The designed systems perform two functions, utilizing captured CO2 and storing renewable energy through co-electrolysis of steam and CO2. The co-electrolysis reaction involves endothermic water electrolysis and exothermic methanation reaction. To enhance high roundtrip efficiency, there is a need for thermal balance and management in the electrolysis mode. This involves operating the RePCEC stack under conditions that favor methane production to balance out heat needed by water electrolysis, it crucial for the RePCEC system operation. Methanation is enhanced by low temperatures. Leveraging on fabricated BCZYYb-electrolyte RePCEC, the cell model designed revealed that the optimum temperature for methane production is 450℃ at atmospheric pressure. Thus, to achieve optimum system performance, operating in the temperature range 450-525℃ is recommended at the given configuration, combining between the optimum temperature for methane production and temperature for the optimum stack roundtrip efficiency. Configuration with carbon capture system and purge stream is the optimum configuration from the seven conceptualized and evaluated. The modeling outcomes include a thermodynamic examination of integrated RePCEC systems, calibration of cell and stack level models, and steady-state simulation and integration into a 600MW combined cycle power plant retrofitted with two two-stage membrane-based carbon capture system and a wastewater treatment and recovery unit. At 100% powerplant loading, the stack and system roundtrip efficiencies are 72% and 51.37% respectively. Adding a purge stream for produced hydrogen at the system downstream improves the efficiencies to 74 and 55.48% respectively. At atmospheric pressure and 525℃, the system model suggests that a stack roundtrip of 82% is achievable, and overall system efficiency increases by reducing the energy consumption by the balance of plant components for steam generation and storage. Economic analysis of the process gives levelized cost of methane as $2.24/MMBtu lower than the conventional production route that range between $3.46/MMBtu and $9.85/MMBtu. The lifecycle analysis shows that the global warming potential for the production of methane and hydrogen from the RePCEC system is 3.83 kg CO2 eq which is lower than 9.35 kg CO2 eq emission during steam methane reforming for hydrogen production. This answered both the environmental and economic concerns in the raised research question. The proposed RePCEC configuration and analysis carried out in this dissertation to address the surge in renewable energy and challenges with PCEC technology hold significant potential in achieving large-scale energy storage while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions. These advancements, coupled with suitable governmental policies and incentive programs, have the potential to economically disrupt the natural gas industries by using RePCEC systems for methane production, thereby making them more favorable for eventual implementation and commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distinguishing localization from chaos: Challenges in finite-size systems

Highlights: • Provides an overview of the current understanding of the many-body localization phase transition. • Discusses the subtleties of finite-size scaling near this transition • Assesses the implications of these subtleties for numerical studies of spin chains. • Explores scaling of diagnostics in models with known localization transitions. • Presents suggestions for future numerical work. We re-examine attempts to study the many-body localization transition using measures that are physically natural on the ergodic/quantum chaotic regime of the phase diagram. Using simple scaling arguments and an analysis of various models for which rigorous results are available, we find that these measures can be particularly adversely affected by the strong finite-size effects observed in nearly all numerical studies of many-body localization. This severely impacts their utility in probing the transition and the localized phase. In light of this analysis, we discuss a recent study (Šuntajs et al., 2020) of the behaviour of the Thouless energy and level repulsion in disordered spin chains, and its implications for the question of whether MBL is a true phase of matter.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

THERMAL ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF SELF-HEATING MOLDS USING LARGE-SCALE ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING FOR OUT-OF-AUTOCLAVE APPLICATIONS

Autoclave processing is a commonly used state-of-the-art fiber-reinforced composite manufacturing technology, albeit high capital cost, long cycle times and high energy consumption. Alternatively, out-of-autoclave processing reduces the initial and operating costs while producing composite structures with similar quality as that of autoclave parts. Additive Manufacturing (AM) the scaled-up molds for out-of-autoclave process using carbon fiber (CF) reinforced composite offers design flexibility, enhanced mechanical, and thermal properties in addition to reduction in weight and cost. However, heating of these molds using an oven is still expensive and necessitates an energy-efficient heating process. In this study, resistive heating through heating elements embedded within fiber reinforced composite molds is used as an efficient heating mechanism. The goal is to design wire embeddings and determine the optimal heat flux density to achieve a target uniform temperature of 1000C across the mold surface. To this end, numerical analyses were performed to evaluate the temperature distribution across the composite mold surface for a given wire placement and mold configuration. Constant thermal properties of the 20 wt.% short CF reinforced acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) were used in the thermal analysis. Time taken to reach the steady state temperature was also estimated. Design guidelines for wire embeddings were included to enable efficient manufacturing of fiber-reinforced composites through out-of-autoclave molds.

Pokkalla, Deepak↗
DOE OSTI2024

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗