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At least 559 records · Page 31

Real Time Effective Impedance Estimation for Power System State Estimation

Here, we introduce two tools-the Effective Impedance State Estimator (EISE), and the Real Time Effective Impedance Estimator (RTEIE). The EISE is novel in that it is an entirely data-driven state estimator, and does not require a network model. Thus, the EISE is well suited for applications in which an accurate network model is not available. Instead of using a network impedance model, the EISE uses an effective impedance network model that is learned online by the RTEIE. The RTEIE recursively estimates the effective impedance network model using phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements. The mathematical reasoning for using an effective impedance model, rather than a full network impedance model, is given. The recursive estimation framework allows the RTEIE to take the entire history of phasor measurements into account to produce a model estimate, while still adjusting to changes in the network impedance due to external factors such as topology changes and temperature. The merits of the RTEIE and EISE are demonstrated by comparing the accuracy of the EISE with a conventional state estimator on a toy network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mitigating Cascading Outages in Severe Weather Using Simulation-Based Optimization

Severe weather events can trigger cascading power outages and lead to significant losses. In this work, we investigate cascading outage mitigation under severe weather conditions. Given day-ahead weather forecasts and component failure models, we aim to identify a set of power lines that can be hardened to minimize the expected impact of potential cascading outages. Since the expected load shedding cannot be expressed as an explicit function of line hardening decisions and system states, we developed a cascading outage simulator to estimate the expected value of load shedding under various initial weather-related disruption scenarios generated using a weather forecast. To avoid massive enumeration of all possible combinations of line hardening decisions and reduce the simulation efforts, we employed an efficient simulation-based optimization approach that quickly identifies the (near) optimal line hardening decisions in the presence of both large simulation noises due to the highly variable initial disturbances and system states, and significant randomness in the subsequent cascades. Furthermore, the algorithm is also able to utilize parallel computing to dramatically reduce computation time to support decision making in preparation for severe weather conditions. We performed a case study on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system model to demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve power grid resilience to adverse weather events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA Tech Briefs, December 2011

Topics covered include: 1) SNE Industrial Fieldbus Interface; 2) Composite Thermal Switch; 3) XMOS XC-2 Development Board for Mechanical Control and Data Collection; 4) Receiver Gain Modulation Circuit; 5) NEXUS Scalable and Distributed Next-Generation Avionics Bus for Space Missions; 6) Digital Interface Board to Control Phase and Amplitude of Four Channels; 7) CoNNeCT Baseband Processor Module; 8) Cryogenic 160-GHz MMIC Heterodyne Receiver Module; 9) Ka-Band, Multi-Gigabit-Per-Second Transceiver; 10) All-Solid-State 2.45-to-2.78-THz Source; 11) Onboard Interferometric SAR Processor for the Ka-Band Radar Interferometer (KaRIn); 12) Space Environments Testbed; 13) High-Performance 3D Articulated Robot Display; 14) Athena; 15) In Situ Surface Characterization; 16) Ndarts; 17) Cryo-Etched Black Silicon for Use as Optical Black; 18) Advanced CO2 Removal and Reduction System; 19) Correcting Thermal Deformations in an Active Composite Reflector; 20) Umbilical Deployment Device; 21) Space Mirror Alignment System; 22) Thermionic Power Cell To Harness Heat Energies for Geothermal Applications; 23) Graph Theory Roots of Spatial Operators for Kinematics and Dynamics; 24) Spacesuit Soft Upper Torso Sizing Systems; 25) Radiation Protection Using Single-Wall Carbon Nanotube Derivatives; 26) PMA-PhyloChip DNA Microarray to Elucidate Viable Microbial Community Structure; 27) Lidar Luminance Quantizer; 28) Distributed Capacitive Sensor for Sample Mass Measurement; 29) Base Flow Model Validation; 30) Minimum Landing Error Powered-Descent Guidance for Planetary Missions; 31) Framework for Integrating Science Data Processing Algorithms Into Process Control Systems; 32) Time Synchronization and Distribution Mechanisms for Space Networks; 33) Local Estimators for Spacecraft Formation Flying; 34) Software-Defined Radio for Space-to-Space Communications; 35) Reflective Occultation Mask for Evaluation of Occulter Designs for Planet Finding; and 36) Molecular Adsorber Coating

Source record↗

BioSentinel: Leading the Way for Deep Space CubeSat Missions

Flagship science missions are not alone in Deep Space thanks to BioSentinel, a 6U spacecraft launched on Artemis-1. BioSentinel is one of the longest operating CubeSats beyond cislunar space. The subsystems and COTS components of the BioSentinel bus are a template for future deep space missions, and the lessons learned from over a year of operations will enable improved performance for the next missions. BioSentinel achieved its unprecedented performance for an SLS secondary payload due to preparation, planning, and a robust design. Pre-launch antenna and interface testing with both DSN and ESA confirmed command and data pathways and allowed for operational flexibility in the critical early hours post-deployment. Mission Operations simulations prior to launch identified potential risks and primed operators to respond in flight, preparing the team to react quickly to successfully detumble the spacecraft and enter a power-positive state. The spacecraft would not have survived without the inclusion of the trailblazing 3D-printed composite cold gas propulsion system. The non-standard tank geometry enabled efficient use of the limited space available in the CubeSat, as well as the capability to detumble the spacecraft and manage momentum, while providing sufficient margin to execute potential delta-V maneuvers. The Iris radio has operated for over 18 months with no significant issues. Initial Iris performance estimates have been accurate throughout the mission. BioSentinel continues to collect data on thermal conditions and to validate our performance models with real-world knowledge. We have received exemplary support from our DSN partners. Following the conclusion of the primary science mission, the Linear Energy Transfer (LET) Spectrometer continued to collect solar and galactic radiation data from its location in heliocentric orbit. The free space dataset offered by the BioSentinel LET is a valuable source of data for model validation and future mission planning. As the spacecraft travels farther from Earth it is poised to provide longitudinally distributed measurements of solar particle events during solar maximum. The lessons learned from BioSentinel suggest key areas to enhance performance. The ability to upload modified flight software can increase the stability of memory management. Additional heaters in the propulsion system design have already proven successful on the Starling mission. Streamlining mission operations can reduce costs, increase data return, and better utilize DSN time. Enhancements such as these will facilitate reliable, long-duration deep space exploration using the proven BioSentinel 6U CubeSat bus.

BioSentinel↗

Grid Value Proposition of Marine Energy

Marine energy technologies convert the energy of ocean waves, and tidal, river, and ocean currents into electricity and other forms of usable energy. The marine energy resource potential in the United States is significant and geographically diverse, with a study commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy estimating that the nation’s annual marine energy potential is approximately 2,300 TWh/year across the 50 states, or greater than 57 percent of U.S. electricity generation in 2019. However, the marine energy industry still faces hurdles to commercialization. While high costs relative to wind and solar remain a key challenge, other hurdles relate to marine energy’s value streams not being well characterized and not captured by traditional energy comparison metrics like the levelized cost of energy. To address this challenge, this project undertakes several types of analyses to identify and illustrate value propositions for marine energy resources. It provides a fresh framework for considering electric system benefits based on unique marine energy attributes, and provides analyses illustrating and quantifying those benefits. The authors find many opportunities for the deployment of marine energy technologies both in the near term and within typical utility planning timeframes (i.e. up to 20 years). From a resource and technology perspective, marine energy resources can deliver distinct and valuable benefits to different configurations of the grid, whether the bulk system, isolated distribution systems, or remote communities, islands, and microgrids. Marine energy resources can be valuable in increasing technology diversity in a generation portfolio, providing energy where it is otherwise difficult to come by, supporting local resiliency, complementing and being complemented by other resources including solar, wind, and energy storage, and avoiding land constraints.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Quantifying the Financial Impacts of Electric Vehicles on Utility Ratepayers and Shareholders [Slides]

Widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption is critical for meeting economy-wide decarbonization goals and, as a result, states are considering enabling policies and rate designs to accelerate EV deployment. EVs can provide possible financial upside to electric utilities and ratepayers in several ways. For example, from the utility perspective, EVs could drive increased electricity sales and new earnings opportunities through increased capital investments. From the ratepayer perspective, increased electric loads from EVs could reduce average all-in retail rates. The degree to which there are net benefits or costs to shareholders and/or ratepayers depends on how EVs are integrated and managed through enabling grid investments and charging strategies. Using Berkeley Lab’s Financial Impacts of Distributed Energy Resources (FINDER) model that mimics the electric utility investment planning and ratemaking processes, we estimate the utility earnings and customer rate impacts of EVs using a bookend approach of “managed” (i.e., best case) and “mismanaged” (i.e., worst case) charging strategies for a generic summer-peaking, investor-owned, and vertically integrated utility. The analysis also examines the sensitivity of results to different assumptions of EV deployment characteristics, EV impacts on retail electricity sales, incremental distribution system costs, EV charging location, and utility EV enablement costs (i.e., utility costs to invest in EV charging, controls, and communication to deliver and administer EV programs). The results are intended to inform EV policies and deployment strategies that maximize utility system benefits and minimize ratepayer costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advanced Modular Power System Electronics Enclosure Thermal Testing

An analysis was set up to model the temperature of the advanced modular power system (AMPS) power distribution cards when installed within the electronics enclosure case. The analysis was used to determine the steady-state temperature distribution of the cards within the case. To verify the analysis, an experiment was set up and conducted to simulate the operation of the cards within the enclosure. Four tests were conducted. The tests varied the position of the cold plate and evaluated the use of a thermal compound to reduce the contact resistance between the joints within the thermal path between the cards and the cold plate. Three of the four cases examined showed very good agreement between the analysis and the experiment with a less than 1-percent variation in the predicated temperatures determined through the analysis and the experimentally derived temperatures. In the remaining case, the difference between the analysis and experiment was approximately 12 percent. Both the experiment and analysis showed that the modular power conditioning cards can be maintained within their desired maximum operating temperature range of 40 to 45 °C through thermal conduction to a cold plate when operating with their estimated maximum heat output of 16 W per card.

Colozza, Anthony J.↗

Hourly dynamic line ratings for existing transmission across the contiguous United States (preliminary results) [Slides]

The thermal rating of a transmission line depends on the rate at which heat generated by current flow through the line can be dissipated into the environment by convective and radiative cooling, keeping the conductor below a maximum operating temperature. Static or seasonal line ratings assume nearly-worst-case weather conditions (high ambient air temperature, high solar irradiance, and low wind speed), resulting in a low risk of "overrating" a line (i.e., allowing more current to flow than the line is designed for) but a high fraction of time when the line is "underrated" (i.e., able to flow more current while staying below the maximum temperature). Dynamic transmission line ratings (DLR) use real-time measurements of weather conditions, line sag, or line temperature to determine the thermal rating of transmission lines at hourly or higher time resolution, allowing for increased ratings during some (cold, windy, and/or dark) periods and correcting for overrating during other (hot, calm, and/or sunny) periods. Many studies have explored the benefits of DLR, but typically for small collections of transmission lines under a limited sample of weather conditions, leaving open the question of how widely applicable the benefits of DLR might be over diverse geographies and weather conditions. Here, we combine geospatial data on tens of thousands of transmission line routes across the contiguous United States with high-resolution hourly historical weather data for 2007-2013 to estimate the impact of DLR and other weather-adjusted rating systems. We compare static and dynamic line ratings to intermediate ratings adjusted by ambient temperature, day/night irradiance, clear-sky irradiance, and/or measured irradiance, illustrating the benefits of incorporating progressively more detailed weather data into the calculated line ratings. Moving from nighttime-adjusted ratings to clear-sky-adjusted ratings provides more benefit than moving from clear-sky-adjusted ratings to measured-irradiance-adjusted ratings. Depending on the assumed static windspeed for irradiance-adjusted-ratings, DLR either corrects for overrated hours or provides substantially increased ratings in the majority of hours on the majority of lines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of the Potential of NASA Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis in Global Landslide Hazard Assessment

Landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage every year. In the U.S. alone landslides occur in every state, causing an estimated $2 billion in damage and 25- 50 deaths each year. Annual average loss of life from landslide hazards in Japan is 170. The situation is much worse in developing countries and remote mountainous regions due to lack of financial resources and inadequate disaster management ability. Recently, a landslide buried an entire village on the Philippines Island of Leyte on Feb 17,2006, with at least 1800 reported deaths and only 3 houses left standing of the original 300. Intense storms with high-intensity , long-duration rainfall have great potential to trigger rapidly moving landslides, resulting in casualties and property damage across the world. In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed datasets, it has become possible to conduct global-scale landslide hazard assessment. This paper evaluates the potential of the real-time NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) system to advance our understanding of and predictive ability for rainfall-triggered landslides. Early results show that the landslide occurrences are closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslide occurrences and the relative importance of rainfall in triggering landslides rely on the influence of rainfall attributes [e.g. rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms). TMPA precipitation data are available in both real-time and post-real-time versions, which are useful to assess the location and timing of rainfall-triggered landslide hazards by monitoring landslide-prone areas while receiving heavy rainfall. For the purpose of identifying rainfall-triggered landslides, an empirical global rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed by examining a number of landslide occurrences and their corresponding TMPA precipitation characteristics across the world. These early results , in combination with TRMM real-time precipitation estimation system, may form a starting point for developing an operational early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides around the globe.

Hong, Yang↗

Starling Formation-Flying Optical Experiment: Initial Operations and Flight Results

This paper presents initial flight results for angles-only navigation of a swarm of small spacecraft, conducted during the Starling Formation-Flying Optical Experiment (StarFOX). StarFOX is one of four experiments aboard the NASA Starling mission, which consists of four CubeSats launched in July 2023. Angles-only methods apply inter-satellite bearing angles obtained by on-board cameras for navigation, increasing satellite autonomy and enabling new mission concepts. Nevertheless, prior flight demonstrations have only featured one observer and target and have relied upon a-priori target orbit knowledge for initialization, translational maneuvers to resolve target range, and external absolute orbit updates to maintain convergence. StarFOX overcomes these limitations by applying the angles-only Absolute and Relative Trajectory Measurement System (ARTMS), which integrates three novel algorithms. Image Processing detects and tracks multiple targets in images, using multi-hypothesis methods and domain-specific kinematic modeling, and computes target bearing angles. Batch Orbit Determination computes initial swarm orbit estimates from bearing angle batches, via iterative batch least squares and sampling of the weakly observable target range. Sequential Orbit Determination leverages an adaptive, efficient unscented Kalman filter with nonlinear models to refine swarm state estimates over time. Multi-observer measurements shared over an intersatellite link are seamlessly fused to enable robust absolute and relative orbit determination. Initial StarFOX experiments are the first demonstrations of autonomous angles-only navigation for a satellite swarm, including multi-target and multi-observer relative navigation; autonomous initialization of navigation for unknown targets; and simultaneous absolute and relative orbit determination. Relative navigation accuracy of 1% (single observer) and 0.2% (multi-observer) of the inter-satellite range is achieved under challenging measurement conditions. Results demonstrate promising performance with regards to ongoing StarFOX campaigns and the application of angles-only navigation to future distributed missions.

Relative Navigation↗

Semi-Annual Report for Modular Integrated Gas High Temperature Reactor Development during Performance Period April 2022 - September 2022

Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR) is being designed by a multidisciplinary team of nuclear, mechanical, and structural engineers under the support of a DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program’s Advanced Reactor Concepts-20 (ARC-20) award. The objective of this ARC-20 project is to deliver a conceptual design for the proposed HC-HTGR in 3 years and support its commercialization as a safe, low-cost HTGR. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is responsible for the design and analysis of the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) as a safety system for passive decay heat removal of the reactor concept. Additionally, Argonne is providing analysis of the primary coolant system to ensure temperatures within the core remain below safety margins during steady-state and potential accident scenarios. This second semi-annual report summarized the progress made at Argonne on the two tasks during the second half of FY22. As a part of the RCCS design task, a scoping calculation in estimating HVAC capability for the HC-HTGR reactor building was performed. A water panel modeling study was first performed with the test case, which confirms the capability of the RELAP5-3D modeling approach to explore various design options of the HC-HTGR RCCS under consideration. Then, a reference RELAP5-3D model for the unit geometry of the preliminary design of the HC-HTGR RCCS was developed. A preliminary performance analysis was conducted to evaluate the performances of a single-phase natural circulation and panel conduction in various operating conditions. For the primary coolant system analysis task, preliminary thermal hydraulic analysis of the HC-HTGR core design was performed with a high resolution 1D fluid-3D solid coupled model using the System Analysis Module (SAM) to assess the assembly coolant channel and bypass flow mass flow rate distribution. Some preliminary work on the development of a full core reduced order model was discussed following the assembly level model to predict the core wide coolant flow distribution and to model certain operational and accidental transients.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America Mission

The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America NASA Earth Venture Suborbital Mission set out to improve regional atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) inversions by exploring the intersection of the strong GHG fluxes and vigorous atmospheric transport that occurs within the midlatitudes. In this study, two research aircraft instrumented with remote and in situ sensors to measure GHG mole fractions, associated trace gases, and atmospheric state variables collected 1,140.7 flight hours of research data, distributed across 305 individual aircraft sorties, coordinated within 121 research flight days, and spanning five 6-week seasonal flight campaigns in the central and eastern United States. Flights sampled 31 synoptic sequences, including fair-weather and frontal conditions, at altitudes ranging from the atmospheric boundary layer to the upper free troposphere. The observations were complemented with global and regional GHG flux and transport model ensembles. We found that midlatitude weather systems contain large spatial gradients in GHG mole fractions, in patterns that were consistent as a function of season and altitude. We attribute these patterns to a combination of regional terrestrial fluxes and inflow from the continental boundaries. These observations, when segregated according to altitude and air mass, provide a variety of quantitative insights into the realism of regional CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes and atmospheric GHG transport realizations. The ACT-America dataset and ensemble modeling methods provide benchmarks for the development of atmospheric inversion systems. As global and regional atmospheric inversions incorporate ACT-America’s findings and methods, we anticipate these systems will produce increasingly accurate and precise subcontinental GHG flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physically detached 'compact groups'

A small fraction of galaxies appear to reside in dense compact groups, whose inferred crossing times are much shorter than a Hubble time. These short crossing times have led to considerable disagreement among researchers attempting to deduce the dynamical state of these systems. In this paper, we suggest that many of the observed groups are not physically bound but are chance projections of galaxies well separated along the line of sight. Unlike earlier similar proposals, ours does not require that the galaxies in the compact group be members of a more diffuse, but physically bound entity. The probability of physically separated galaxies projecting into an apparent compact group is nonnegligible if most galaxies are distributed in thin filaments. We illustrate this general point with a specific example: a simulation of a cold dark matter universe, in which hydrodynamic effects are included to identify galaxies. The simulated galaxy distribution is filamentary and end-on views of these filaments produce apparent galaxy associations that have sizes and velocity dispersions similar to those of observed compact groups. The frequency of such projections is sufficient, in principle, to explain the observed space density of groups in the Hickson catalog. We discuss the implications of our proposal for the formation and evolution of groups and elliptical galaxies. The proposal can be tested by using redshift-independent distance estimators to measure the line-of-sight spatial extent of nearby compact groups.

Hernquist, Lars↗

Interactive Soil Dust Aerosol Model in the GISS GCM: Sensitivity of the Soil Dust Cycle to Radiative Properties of Soil Dust Aerosols - Part 1

The sensitivity of the soil dust aerosol cycle to the radiative forcing by soil dust aerosols is studied. Four experiments with the NASA/GISS atmospheric general circulation model, which includes a soil dust aerosol model, are compared, all using a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature as lower boundary condition. In one experiment, dust is included as dynamic tracer only (without interacting with radiation), whereas dust interacts with radiation in the other simulations. Although the single scattering albedo of dust particles is prescribed to be globally uniform in the experiments with radiatively active dust, a different single scattering albedo is used in those experiments to estimate whether regional variations in dust optical properties, corresponding to variations in mineralogical composition among different source regions, are important for the soil dust cycle and the climate state. On a global scale, the radiative forcing by dust generally causes a reduction in the atmospheric dust load corresponding to a decreased dust source flux. That is, there is a negative feedback in the climate system due to the radiative effect of dust. The dust source flux and its changes were analyzed in more detail for the main dust source regions. This analysis shows that the reduction varies both with the season and with the single scattering albedo of the dust particles. By examining the correlation with the surface wind, it was found that the dust emission from the Saharan/Sahelian source region and from the Arabian peninsula, along with the sensitivity of the emission to the single scattering albedo of dust particles, are related to large scale circulation patterns, in particular to the trade winds during Northern Hemisphere winter and to the Indian monsoon circulation during summer. In the other regions, such relations to the large scale circulation were not found. There, the dependence of dust deflation to radiative forcing by dust particles is probably dominated by physical processes with short time scales. The experiments show that dust radiative forcing can lead to significant changes both in the soil dust cycle and in the climate state. To estimate dust concentration and radiative forcing by dust more accurately, dust size distributions and dust single scattering albedo in the model should be a function of the source region, because dust concentration and climate response to dust radiative forcing are sensitive to dust radiative parameters.

Perlwitz, Jan↗

Design-Point Techno-Economics of Brayton Cycle PTES for Combined Heat and Power

Pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) systems are grid batteries that use heat pumps to create both hot and cold thermal energy stores when there is excess electricity and then use a power cycle to convert the thermal energy into electricity when there is demand for electricity. In normal operation, Joule-Brayton PTES discharges low-grade heat at temperatures useful for thermal energy consumers like district and industrial heating. Furthermore, PTES designs, like conventional combined heat and power (CHP) technology, can be modified to sacrifice some round-trip efficiency RTE to increase the temperature of heat rejection. This paper uses design-point performance and cost models that provide a detailed understanding of the efficiency and cost trade-offs of rejecting heat at various temperatures in ideal-gas Brayton PTES configurations. First, we keep the heat rejection in its nominal location in the PTES system: in the discharge cycle after the low-pressure exit of the recuperator before the cold-storage heat exchanger. Next, we move the heat rejection to the discharge turbine exit. We define design-point metrics that isolate both the cost and performance penalty associated with the hotter heat rejection and attribute it exclusively to the heat economic metrics. Finally, we estimate the performance of electric heater technology to generate heat at equivalent temperatures. We find that the levelized cost of heat, including the cost of thermal energy storage (TES) buffering the PTES and heat off-taker, compares favorable versus electric technologies and is less than the cost of natural gas for low temperature scenarios and competitive with the cost of natural gas in some regions of the contiguous United States in high temperature scenarios.

CHP↗

Adaptive planning for applications with dynamic objectives

We devise a qualitative control layer to be integrated into a real-time multi-agent reactive planner. The reactive planning system consists of distributed planning agents attending to various perspectives of the task environment. Each perspective corresponds to an objective. The set of objectives considered are sometimes in conflict with each other. Each agent receives information about events as they occur, and a set of actions based on heuristics can be taken by the agents. Within the qualitative control scheme, we use a set of qualitative feature vectors to describe the effects of applying actions. A qualitative transition vector is used to denote the qualitative distance between the current state and the target state. We will then apply on-line learning at the qualitative control level to achieve adaptive planning. Our goal is to design a mechanism to refine the heuristics used by the reactive planner every time an action is taken toward achieving the objectives, using feedback from the results of the actions. When the outcome is compared with expectations, our prior objectives may be modified and a new set of objectives (or a new assessment of the relative importance of the different objectives) can be introduced. Because we are able to obtain better estimates of the time-varying objectives, the reactive strategies can be improved and better prediction can be achieved.

Hadavi, Khosrow↗