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At least 559 records · Page 31

Confusion-limited galaxy fields. II - Classical analyses

Chokshi and Wright presented a detailed model for simulating angular distribution of galaxy images in fields that extended to very high redshifts. Standard tools are used to analyze these simulated galaxy fields for the Omega(O) = 0 and the Omega(O) = 1 cases in order to test the discriminatory power of these tools. Classical number-magnitude diagrams and surface brightness-color-color diagrams are employed to study crowded galaxy fields. An attempt is made to separate the effects due to stellar evolution in galaxies from those due to the space time geometry. The results show that this discrimination is maximized at near-infrared wavelengths where the stellar photospheres are still visible but stellar evolution effects are less severe than those observed at optical wavelenghts. Rapid evolution of the stars on the asymptotic giant branch is easily recognized in the simulated data for both cosmologies and serves to discriminate between the two extreme values of Omega(O). Measurements of total magnitudes of individual galaxies are not essential for studying light distribution in galaxies as a function of redshift. Calculations for the extragalactic background radiation are carried out using the simulated data, and compared to integrals over the evolutionary models used.

Chokshi, Arati↗

On the Use of the Beta Distribution in Probabilistic Resource Assessments

The triangular distribution is a popular choice when it comes to modeling bounded continuous random variables. Its wide acceptance derives mostly from its simple analytic properties and the ease with which modelers can specify its three parameters through the extremes and the mode. On the negative side, hardly any real process follows a triangular distribution, which from the outset puts at a disadvantage any model employing triangular distributions. At a time when numerical techniques such as the Monte Carlo method are displacing analytic approaches in stochastic resource assessments, easy specification remains the most attractive characteristic of the triangular distribution. The beta distribution is another continuous distribution defined within a finite interval offering wider flexibility in style of variation, thus allowing consideration of models in which the random variables closely follow the observed or expected styles of variation. Despite its more complex definition, generation of values following a beta distribution is as straightforward as generating values following a triangular distribution, leaving the selection of parameters as the main impediment to practically considering beta distributions. This contribution intends to promote the acceptance of the beta distribution by explaining its properties and offering several suggestions to facilitate the specification of its two shape parameters. In general, given the same distributional parameters, use of the beta distributions in stochastic modeling may yield significantly different results, yet better estimates, than the triangular distribution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Robust effects of cloud superparameterization on simulated daily rainfall intensity statistics across multiple versions of the C ommunity E arth S ystem M odel

Abstract This study evaluates several important statistics of daily rainfall based on frequency and amount distributions as simulated by a global climate model whose precipitation does not depend on convective parameterization—Super‐Parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM). Three superparameterized and conventional versions of CAM, coupled within the Community Earth System Model (CESM1 and CCSM4), are compared against two modern rainfall products (GPCP 1DD and TRMM 3B42) to discriminate robust effects of superparameterization that emerge across multiple versions. The geographic pattern of annual‐mean rainfall is mostly insensitive to superparameterization, with only slight improvements in the double‐ITCZ bias. However, unfolding intensity distributions reveal several improvements in the character of rainfall simulated by SPCAM. The rainfall rate that delivers the most accumulated rain (i.e., amount mode) is systematically too weak in all versions of CAM relative to TRMM 3B42 and does not improve with horizontal resolution. It is improved by superparameterization though, with higher modes in regions of tropical wave, Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and monsoon activity. Superparameterization produces better representations of extreme rates compared to TRMM 3B42, without sensitivity to horizontal resolution seen in CAM. SPCAM produces more dry days over land and fewer over the ocean. Updates to CAM's low cloud parameterizations have narrowed the frequency peak of light rain, converging toward SPCAM. Poleward of 50°, where more rainfall is produced by resolved‐scale processes in CAM, few differences discriminate the rainfall properties of the two models. These results are discussed in light of their implication for future rainfall changes in response to climate forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulating wind power forecast error distributions for spatially aggregated wind power plants

Dispersion and aggregation of wind power plants lower the uncertainty of wind power by reducing wind power forecasting errors. Using quantitative methods, this paper studies the dispersion's impact on the uncertainty of the aggregated wind power production. A method to simulate day-ahead forecast error distributions at different dispersion and forecasting skill scenarios is presented. The proposed method models the uncertainty of wind power forecasting on an annual basis and at different levels of production. As a result, the uncertainty in the forecasting of spatially dispersed wind power plants is modelled using two continuous distributions: Laplace and beta distribution. The analysis shows that even the production level uncertainty can be modelled in various dispersion and forecasting skill scenarios. The model for aggregated forecast error distributions requires only four variables: capacity-weighted distance of the total wind power plant fleet, mean of the site-specific mean absolute errors (MAEs), number of aggregated wind power plants, and the mean variability of the elevations from the proximities of the aggregated wind power plants. Here, the results are especially promising when the number of aggregated wind power plants exceeds five, the terrain complexity is low or moderate, and the aggregation region is large. This is demonstrated through a case study for Texas, United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Study of the longitudinal distribution of power generated in a random distributed feedback Raman fibre laser with unidirectional pumping

The longitudinal distribution of the Stokes-component power in a Raman fibre laser with a random distributed feedback and unidirectional pumping is measured. The fibre parameters (linear loss and Rayleigh backscattering coefficient) are calculated based on the distributions obtained. A numerical model is developed to describe the lasing power distribution. The simulation results are in good agreement with the experimental data. (optical fibres, lasers and amplifiers. properties and applications)

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB): Completed History Match: Subsurface Plume Development, Early Test

In this paper, we compare 4D seismic interpretations of CO 2 plume evolution with fluid flow numerical simulation results for the SECARB Early test at Cranfield, Mississippi. Historic pressure trends, oil and gas production rates and current CO 2 -EOR production data from the field were history matched and tuned model used for predictive simulations. For CO 2 -EOR operations the tuned model results showing CO 2 plume distribution and CO 2 first arrival (break-through) times in production wells were compared to the available field data. Reasonable matches were observed with breakthrough times. However 4D seismic interpretations of saturated region distributions and simulation results mismatch in some significant ways, likely showing limitations in 4D seismic interpretations for Cranfield. The tuned model then used to predict reservoir response and storage capacity in different field development scenarios. We compared hypothetical scenarios where the operator decided to transition into CO 2 injection without oil production (CO 2 -EORT) when oil production is not economical versus a scenario of continuing with CO 2 -EOR. Our results show that CO 2 -EOR can store more CO 2 and operations will last longer whereas if switched to CO 2 -EORT field has to be abandoned earlier because of out-of-area movement of the CO 2 plume. However, the amount of CO2 stored per year during the operational period is larger for CO 2 -EORT.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Physically detached 'compact groups'

A small fraction of galaxies appear to reside in dense compact groups, whose inferred crossing times are much shorter than a Hubble time. These short crossing times have led to considerable disagreement among researchers attempting to deduce the dynamical state of these systems. In this paper, we suggest that many of the observed groups are not physically bound but are chance projections of galaxies well separated along the line of sight. Unlike earlier similar proposals, ours does not require that the galaxies in the compact group be members of a more diffuse, but physically bound entity. The probability of physically separated galaxies projecting into an apparent compact group is nonnegligible if most galaxies are distributed in thin filaments. We illustrate this general point with a specific example: a simulation of a cold dark matter universe, in which hydrodynamic effects are included to identify galaxies. The simulated galaxy distribution is filamentary and end-on views of these filaments produce apparent galaxy associations that have sizes and velocity dispersions similar to those of observed compact groups. The frequency of such projections is sufficient, in principle, to explain the observed space density of groups in the Hickson catalog. We discuss the implications of our proposal for the formation and evolution of groups and elliptical galaxies. The proposal can be tested by using redshift-independent distance estimators to measure the line-of-sight spatial extent of nearby compact groups.

Hernquist, Lars↗

Hybrid Concurrent Constraint Simulation Models of Several Systems

This distribution contains several simulation models created for the hybrid simulation language, Hybrid Concurrent Constraint (HCC). An HCC model contains the information specified in the widely-accepted academic definition of a hybrid system: this includes expressions for the modes of the systems to be simulated and the differential equations that apply in each mode. These expressions are written in the HCC syntax. The models included here were created by either applying basic physical laws or implementing equations listed in previously published papers.

Sweet, Adam↗

High-Resolution NO2 Observations from the Airborne Compact Atmospheric Mapper: Retrieval and Validation

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a short-lived atmospheric pollutant that serves as an air quality indicator and is itself a health concern. The Airborne Compact Atmospheric Mapper (ACAM) was flown on board the NASA UC-12 aircraft during the Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality Maryland field campaign in July 2011. The instrument collected hyperspectral remote sensing measurements in the 304-910 nm range, allowing daytime observations of several tropospheric pollutants, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), at an unprecedented spatial resolution of 1.5 × 1.1 sq. km. Retrievals of slant column abundance are based on the differential optical absorption spectroscopy method. For the air mass factor computations needed to convert these retrievals to vertical column abundance, we include high-resolution information for the surface reflectivity by using bidirectional reflectance distribution function data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. We use high-resolution simulated vertical distributions of NO2 from the Community Multiscale Air Quality and Global Modeling Initiative models to account for the temporal variation in atmospheric NO2 to retrieve middle and lower tropospheric NO2 columns (NO2 below the aircraft). We compare NO2 derived from ACAM measurements with in situ observations from NASA's P-3B research aircraft, total column observations from the ground-based Pandora spectrometers, and tropospheric column observations from the space-based Ozone Monitoring Instrument. The high-resolution ACAM measurements not only give new insights into our understanding of atmospheric composition and chemistry through observation of subsampling variability in typical satellite and model resolutions, but they also provide opportunities for testing algorithm improvements for forthcoming geostationary air quality missions.

Lamsal, L. N.↗

Distributed Wind Representation in Modeling and Simulation Tools: An Assessment of Existing Tools

PNNL evaluated the inclusion of wind in distributed energy resource modeling and simulation tools. Tools were assessed based on a survey of publicly available and readily accessible information. While the authors have made a good faith effort to understand these tools, PNNL does not know the intentions of the developers and acknowledges that some tool capabilities or features may not have been accurately captured in this assessment. This evaluation informs an ongoing effort by PNNL to modernize existing tools both directly by working with developers of some tools and indirectly by providing best practices on how different types of tools could enhance certain modeling features to improve distributed wind’s representation and valuation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Combining Simulation and Emulation Systems for Smart Grid Planning and Evaluation

Software-defined networking (SDN) enables efficient network management. As the technology matures, utilities are looking to integrate those benefits to their operations technology (OT) networks. To help the community to better understand and evaluate the effects of such integration, we develop DSSnet, a testing platform that combines a power distribution system simulator and an SDN-based network emulator for smart grid planning and evaluation. DSSnet relies on a container-based virtual time system to achieve efficient synchronization between the simulation and emulation systems. To enhance the system scalability and usability, we extend DSSnet to support a distributed controller environment. To enhance system fidelity, we extend the virtual time system to support kernel-based switches. In conclusion, we also evaluate the system performance of DSSnet and demonstrate the usability of DSSnet with a resilient demand response application case study.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reduced‐Order Modeling for Linearized Representations of Microphysical Process Rates

Abstract Representing cloud microphysical processes in large scale atmospheric models is challenging because many processes depend on the details of the droplet size distribution (DSD, the spectrum of droplets with different sizes in a cloud). While full or partial statistical moments of droplet size distributions are the typical variables used in bulk models, prognostic moments are limited in their ability to represent microphysical processes across the range of conditions experienced in the atmosphere. Microphysical parameterizations employing prognostic moments are known to suffer from structural uncertainty in their representations of inherently higher dimensional cloud processes, which limit model fidelity and lead to forecasting errors. Here we investigate how data‐driven reduced‐order modeling can be used to learn predictors for microphysical process rates in bulk microphysics schemes in an unsupervised manner from higher dimensional bin distributions. Using simulations characteristic of marine stratiform clouds, we simultaneously learn lower dimensional representations of droplet size distributions and predict the evolution of the microphysical state of the system. Droplet collision‐coalescence, the main process for generating warm rain, is estimated to have an intrinsic dimension of three. This intrinsic dimension provides a lower limit on the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately represent collision‐coalescence in models. We demonstrate how deep learning based reduced‐order modeling can be used to discover intrinsic coordinates describing the microphysical state of the system, where process rates such as collision‐coalescence are globally linearized. These implicitly learned representations of the DSD retain more information about the DSD than typical moment‐based representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determining the squark mass at the LHC

We propose a new way to determine the squark mass based on the shape of dijet invariant mass distribution of supersymmetry dijet events at the Large Hadron Collider. Our algorithm, which is based on event kinematics, requires that the branching ratio B(q-tilde{yields}qZ-tilde{sub 1}) is substantial for at least some types of squarks, and that m{sub Z}-tilde{sub 1}{sup 2}/m{sub q}-tilde{sup 2}<<1. We select dijet events with no isolated leptons, and impose cuts on the total jet transverse energy, E{sub T}{sup tot}=E{sub T}(j{sub 1})+E{sub T}(j{sub 2}), on {alpha}=E{sub T}(j{sub 2})/m{sub jj}, and on the azimuthal angle between the two jets to reduce standard model backgrounds. The shape of the resulting dijet mass distribution depends sensitively on the squark mass, especially if the integrated luminosity is sufficient to allow a hard enough cut on E{sub T}{sup tot} and yet leave a large enough signal to obtain the m{sub jj} distribution. We simulate the signal and standard model backgrounds for 100 fb{sup -1} integrated luminosity at 14 TeV requiring E{sub T}{sup tot}>700 GeV. We show that it should be possible to extract m{sub q}-tilde to within about 3% at 95% confidence level-similar to the precision obtained using m{sub T2}-from the dijet mass distribution if m{sub q}-tilde{approx}650 GeV, or to within {approx}5% if m{sub q}-tilde{approx}1 TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

High spatial resolution Fe xii observations of solar active regions

We use UV spectral observations of active regions with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) to investigate the properties of the coronal Fe xii 1349.4 Å emission at unprecedented high spatial resolution (∼0.33″). We find that by using appropriate observational strategies (i.e., long exposures, lossless compression), Fe xii emission can be studied with IRIS at high spatial and spectral resolution, at least for high-density plasma (e.g., post-flare loops and active region moss). We find that upper transition region (TR; moss) Fe xii emission shows very small average Doppler redshifts (v{sub D} ∼ 3 km s{sup −1}) as well as modest non-thermal velocities (with an average of ∼24 km s{sup −1} and the peak of the distribution at ∼15 km s{sup −1}). The observed distribution of Doppler shifts appears to be compatible with advanced three-dimensional radiative MHD simulations in which impulsive heating is concentrated at the TR footpoints of a hot corona. While the non-thermal broadening of Fe xii 1349.4 Å peaks at similar values as lower resolution simultaneous Hinode Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) measurements of Fe xii 195 Å, IRIS observations show a previously undetected tail of increased non-thermal broadening that might be suggestive of the presence of subarcsecond heating events. We find that IRIS and EIS non-thermal line broadening measurements are affected by instrumental effects that can only be removed through careful analysis. Our results also reveal an unexplained discrepancy between observed 195.1/1349.4 Å Fe xii intensity ratios and those predicted by the CHIANTI atomic database.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Tropospheric aerosols over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the winter and summer deployments of ACTIVATE 2020: life cycle, transport, and distribution

The Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) is a NASA mission to characterize aerosol–cloud interactions over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO). Such characterization requires understanding of life cycle, composition, transport pathways, and distribution of aerosols over the WNAO. This study uses the GEOS-Chem model to simulate aerosol distributions and properties that are evaluated against aircraft, ground-based, and satellite observations during the winter and summer field deployments in 2020 of ACTIVATE. Transport in the boundary layer (BL) behind cold fronts was a major mechanism for the North American continental outflow of pollution to the WNAO in winter. Turbulent mixing was the main driver for the upward transport of sea salt within and ventilation out of BL in winter. The BL aerosol composition was dominated by sea salt, which increased in the summer, followed by organics and sulfate. Aircraft in situ aerosol measurements provided useful constraints on wet scavenging in GEOS-Chem. The model generally captured observed features such as continental outflow, land–ocean gradient, and mixing of anthropogenic aerosols with sea salt. Model sensitivity experiments with elevated smoke injection heights to the mid-troposphere (versus within BL) better reproduced observations of smoke aerosols from the western US wildfires over the WNAO in the summer. Model analysis suggests strong hygroscopic growth of sea salt particles and their seeding of marine BL clouds over the WNAO (< 35° N). Future modeling efforts should focus on improving parameterizations for aerosol wet scavenging, implementing realistic smoke injection heights, and applying high-resolution models that better resolve vertical transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗