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DOE OSTI2025

Representing Complex Systems as Graphs for Debugging and Predictive Maintenance-Preliminary Thoughts

Representing complex systems as graphs enables use of mathematical tools to identify faults or predict failures. Graph nodes correspond to individual modules or subsystems, and edges link coupled system parts. ‘Probes’ measure the node outputs, monitoring the system health for unexpected behavior. Assuming one cannot probe every point, within a system, the fault correlates to a region—not necessarily the specific location. Bayesian networks trained to understand fault patterns can accurately identify the source. The diagnostic tool described aides debugging by pinpointing system failure causes. For predictive maintenance, probe data develop probability distribution functions describing subsystem mean time to failure. Unit lifetime can be estimated through these probability distributions. Two approaches include using Bayesian classifiers to infer the system failure source and developing maintenance schedules by treating systems as collections of random variables. When failure behavior does not follow a closed form function, use of similarity models is proposed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Spectral Lines in Large Databases of Synthetic Spectra for Massive Stars

In this paper, we describe a program that identifies in the optical spectrum the main parameters of a spectral line, namely the initial and final wavelengths, and the line depth. Moreover, using numerical calculations, it identifies and removes adjacent lines. Next, the program calculates the equivalent width and the FWHM. The software was tested in a sample of 300 lines in two databases of synthetic spectra generated by the CMFGEN and PoWR codes, and 300 lines in observed spectra from the IACOB database, showing a Gaussian distribution of relative errors, from which it is inferred that 80% of the measured lines have errors less than 17% and only 5% of the lines have errors greater than 26%. The program was also run on the entire database of 45,000 CMFGEN and 202 POWR synthetic spectra, generating a library of H i, He i, and He ii lines necessary to feed the FITspec code for the derivation of stellar parameters: effective temperature, surface gravity, and luminosity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the Milky Way Mass Profile with Phase-space Distribution of Satellite Galaxies

We estimate the Milky Way (MW) halo properties using satellite kinematic data including the latest measurements from Gaia DR2. With a simulation-based 6D phase-space distribution function (DF) of satellite kinematics, we can infer halo properties efficiently and without bias, and handle the selection function and measurement errors rigorously in the Bayesian framework. Applying our DF from the EAGLE simulation to 28 satellites, we obtain an MW halo mass of $M={1.23}_{-0.18}^{+0.21}\times {10}^{12}{M}_{\odot }$ and a concentration of $c={9.4}_{-2.1}^{+2.8}$ with the prior based on the M–c relation. The inferred mass profile is consistent with previous measurements but with better precision and reliability due to the improved methodology and data. Potential improvement is illustrated by combining satellite data and stellar rotation curves. Using our EAGLE DF and best-fit MW potential, we provide much more precise estimates of the kinematics for those satellites with uncertain measurements. Compared to the EAGLE DF, which matches the observed satellite kinematics very well, the DF from the semi-analytical model based on the dark-matter-only simulation Millennium II (SAM-MII) over-represents satellites with small radii and velocities. We attribute this difference to less disruption of satellites with small pericenter distances in the SAM-MII simulation. Finally, by varying the disruption rate of such satellites in this simulation, we estimate a ~5% scatter in the inferred MW halo mass among hydrodynamics-based simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiwavelength Observations of a New Redback Millisecond Pulsar 4FGL J1910.7-5320

We present the study of multiwavelength observations of an unidentified Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) source, 4FGL J1910.7-5320, a new candidate redback millisecond pulsar binary. In the 4FGL 95% error region of 4FGL J1910.7-5320, we find a possible binary with a 8.36 hr orbital period from the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey, confirmed by optical spectroscopy using the SOAR telescope. This optical source was recently independently discovered as a redback pulsar by the TRAPUM project, confirming our prediction. We fit the optical spectral energy distributions of 4FGL J1910.7-5320 with a blackbody model, inferring a maximum distance of 4.1 kpc by assuming that the companion fills its Roche lobe with a radius of R = 0.7 R ⊙ . Using a 12.6 ks Chandra X-ray observation, we identified an X-ray counterpart for 4FGL J1910.7-5320, with a spectrum that can be described by an absorbed power law with a photon index of 1.0 ± 0.4. The spectrally hard X-ray emission shows tentative evidence for orbital variability. Using more than 12 yr of Fermi-LAT data, we refined the position of the γ-ray source, and the optical candidate still lies within the 68% positional error circle. In addition to 4FGL J1910.7-5320, we find a variable optical source with a periodic signal of 4.28 hr inside the 4FGL catalog 95% error region of another unidentified Fermi source, 4FGL J2029.5-4237. However, the γ-ray source does not have a significant X-ray counterpart in an 11.7 ks Chandra observation, with a 3σ flux upper limit of 2.4 × 10 -14 erg cm -2 s -1 (0.3–7 keV). Moreover, the optical source is outside our updated Fermi-LAT 95% error circle. These observational facts all suggest that this new redback millisecond pulsar powers the gamma-ray source 4FGL J1910.7-5320 while 4FGL J2029.5-4237 is unlikely the γ-ray counterpart to the 4.28 hr variable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

The effect of multiple encounters on short period comet orbits

The observed orbital elements of short period comets are found to be consistent with the hypothesis of derivation from long period comets as long as two assumptions are made. First, the distribution of short period comets has been randomized by multiple encounters with Jupiter and second, the short period comets have lower velocities of encounter with Jupiter than is generally expected. Some 16% of the observed short period comets have lower encounter velocities than is allowed mathematically using Laplace's method. This may be due to double encounter processes with Jupiter and Saturn, or as a result of prolonged encounters. The distribution of unobservable short period comets can be inferred in part from the observed comets. Many have orbits between Jupiter and Saturn with somewhat higher inclinations than those with perihelions near the earth. Debris from those comets may form the major component of the zodiacal dust.

Lowrey, B. E.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Determination of optical parameters of atmospheric particulates from ground-based polarimeter measurements

This paper describes the theoretical analysis that is required to infer, from polarimeter measurements of skylight, the size distribution, refractive index and abundance of particulates in the atmosphere. To illustrate the viability of the method, some data obtained at UCLA is analyzed and the atmospheric parameters are derived. The explicit demonstration of the redundancy in the description of aerosol distributions suggests that radiation field measurements will not uniquely determine the modal radius of the size distribution. In spite of this nonuniqueness information useful to heat budget calculations can be derived.

Kuriyan, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Remote infrared heterodyne radiometer measurements of atmospheric ammonia profiles

An infrared heterodyne radiometer has been used to study the seasonal variation of the vertical distribution of atmospheric ammonia. The ammonia profiles are inferred from high-resolution atmospheric solar transmittance measurements around the ammonia absorption feature at 927.32323 kaysers. The transmittance data are obtained from six IF channels with spectral resolutions ranging from .0067 to .033 kaysers. Results from this study show a marked decrease in the tropospheric ammonia level with a decrease at ground level from approximately 10 ppb in March 1979 to 1.3 ppb in August 1979.

Hoell, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Observations of the Ca/+/ twilight airglow from intermediate layers of ionization

Optical and incoherent scatter radar techniques are applied to detect the presence of Ca(+) in lower thermospheric intermediate layers over Arecibo. The Arecibo 430 MHz radar is used to measure electron densities, and the altitude distribution and density of the calcium ion is inferred from the variation of twilight resonant scattering with solar depression angle. Ca(+) and electron column densities are compared, and results indicate that the composition of low-altitude intermediate layers is 2% Ca(+), which is consistent with rocket mass spectrometer measurements. Fe(+) and Mg(+) ultraviolet resonance lines are not detected from the ground due to ozone absorbing all radiation short of 3000 A, and measurements of the neutral iron resonance line at 3860 A show that an atmospheric continuum may result in overestimations of emission rates at high solar depression angles.

Tepley, C. A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Comparative magnetospheric/ionospheric studies using Dynamics Explorer spacecraft and ground-based radars

Coincident observations between the Dynamics Explorer 1 and 2 spacecraft with Chatanika and Arecibo ground-based radar are briefly reviewed. Ionospheric-magnetospheric coupling processes in the plasmasphere, main trough, auroral zone, and polar cap are inferred from the density, temperature, composition, and angular distributions of the low-energy plasma observed from the E-region ionosphere out into the magnetosphere to an altitude of 2.5 earth radii (Re). From the polar cap to the inner plasmasphere, parallel and perpendicular electric fields, polar wind flow, and equilibrium diffusion appear to be involved in the ionospheric-magnetospheric coupling of the low energy plasma.

Green, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Observations of ionospheric magnetospheric coupling - DE and Chatanika coincidences

Observations from several experiments on board the Dynamics Explorer 1 and 2 (DE 1 and 2) spacecraft and ground-based radar measurements from the Chatanika radar are combined in order to examine the details of ionospheric/magnetospheric coupling in the local evening sector. DE 1 and DE 2 were in coplanar polar orbits that provided measurements almost simultaneously in time and magnetically coincident with the Chatanika radar from L = 3 to L = 17. The coupling processes are inferred from the density, temperature, composition, and angular distributions of the low-energy plasma observed from the E region of the ionosphere to magnetospheric altitudes of 2.5 earth radii. Plasma characteristics of the plasmasphere, main trough, auroral zone, and polar cap can be studied in this data set. The observations imply that as L increases, the dominant coupling mechanism between the ionosphere and magnetosphere in the measured energy range changes from equilibrium diffusion to perpendicular acceleration and finally to parallel acceleration.

Green, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Comparative magnetospheric/ionospheric studies using Dynamics Explorer spacecraft and ground-based radars

Coincident magnetosphere-ionosphere observations between the Dynamics Explorer 1 and 2 spacecraft with ground-based radar are reviewed. Ionospheric-magnetospheric coupling processes in the plasmasphere, main trough, auroral zone, and polar cap are inferred from the density, temperature, composition, and angular distributions of the low-energy plasma observed from the E-region ionosphere out into the magnetosphere to an altitude of 2.5 Re. From the polar cap to the inner plasmasphere, parallel and perpendicular electric fields, polar wind flow, and equilibrium diffusion appear to be involved in the ionospheric-magnetospheric coupling of the low energy plasma.

Green, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The 27-28 October 1986 FIRE IFO cirrus case study - Spectral properties of cirrus clouds in the 8-12 micron window

Lidar and radiometric observations are employed for detecting the presence of cirrus and describing their radiative properties. The study focuses on observations of the radiative properties of cirrus clouds within the 8-12 micron spectral region. The instrumentation that achieved the spectral radiance observations used in this study is described. Results are presented for October 28, 1986 FIRE case study day in terms of brightness temperature differences, cirrus effective emissivities, and the gross microphysical characteristics of the observed clouds. The HIS and lidar observations were combined to derive the spectral effective beam emissivity of the cirrus clouds. Fifty percent of clouds on this day displayed a spectral variation of effective beam emissivity from 2-10 percent. These differences, in conjunction with large differences in the HIS observed brightness temperatures, indicate that cirrus clouds cannot be considered gray in the 8-12 micron region. Also, the derived spectral transmittance of the cloud is used to infer the effective radii of the particle size distribution.

Ackerman, Steven A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The kinetics and dynamics of the coma of Halley's comet

This grant to the University of Michigan supported the efforts of Michael R. Combi to serve as a co-investigator in collaboration with a larger effort by the principal investigator, William Smyth of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. The overall objective of this project was to analyze in a self-consistent manner unique optical O((sup 1)D) and NH2 ultra-high resolution line profile data of excellent quality and other supporting lower-resolution spectral data for the coma of comet P/Halley by using highly developed and physically-based cometary coma models in order to determine and explain in terms of physical processes the actual dynamics and photochemical kinetics that occur in the coma. The justification for this work is that it provides a valuable and underlying physical base from which to interpret significantly different types of coma observations in a self-consistent manner and hence bring into agreement (or avoid) apparent inconsistencies that arise from non-physically based interpretations. The level of effort for the Michigan component amounted to less than three person-months over a planned period of three years. The period had been extended at no extra cost to four years because the Michigan grant and the AER contract did not have coincident time periods. An effort of somewhat larger scope was undertaken by the PI. The importance of the O((sup 1)D) profiles is that they provide a direct trace of the water distribution in comets. The line profile shape is produced by the convolution of the outflow velocity and thermal dispersion of the parent water molecules with the photokinetic ejection of the oxygen atoms upon photodissociation of the parent water molecules. Our understanding of the NH2 and its precursor ammonia are important for comet-to-comet composition variations as they relate to the cosmo-chemistry of the early solar nebula. Modeling of the distribution of NH2 is necessary in order to infer the ammonia production rates from NH2 observations.

Combi, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Transversely accelerated ions in the topside ionosphere

Data from the rocket campaigns Mechanism in the Auroral Region for Ion Energization (MARIE) and TOpside Probe of the Auroral Zone (TOPAZ) III, within regions of low-altitude transversely accelerated ions, are interpreted to explain the acceleration of the ions. Using the Monte Carlo kinetic technique to evaluate the ion heating produced by the simultaneously observed lower hybrid waves, we find that their observed electric field amplitudes are sufficient to explain the observed ion energies in the MARIE event. Much of the uncertainty in evaluating the efficiency of a plasma wave induced particle heating process which is dependent on a velocity resonance comes from the lack of information on the phase velocities of the waves. In the case of the MARIE observations, our modeling efforts show that features in the ion velocity distribution are consistent with the wave phase velocities inferred from interferometer measurements of wavelengths. The lower hybrid waves with which low-altitude transversely accelerated ions are associated are frequently observed to be concentrated in small-scale wave packets called 'spikelets'. We demonstrate through the scaling of the size of these wave packets that they are consistent with the theory of lower hybrid collapse. Using the Monte Carlo technique, we find that if the lower hybrid field energy is concentrated in these wave packets, it is still adequate to accelerate the ionospheric ions to the observed energies.

Retterer, John M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Microscale Effects from Global Hot Plasma Imagery

We have used a three-dimensional model of recovery phase storm hot plasmas to explore the signatures of pitch angle distributions (PADS) in global fast atom imagery of the magnetosphere. The model computes mass, energy, and position-dependent PADs based on drift effects, charge exchange losses, and Coulomb drag. The hot plasma PAD strongly influences both the storm current system carried by the hot plasma and its time evolution. In turn, the PAD is strongly influenced by plasma waves through pitch angle diffusion, a microscale effect. We report the first simulated neutral atom images that account for anisotropic PADs within the hot plasma. They exhibit spatial distribution features that correspond directly to the PADs along the lines of sight. We investigate the use of image brightness distributions along tangent-shell field lines to infer equatorial PADS. In tangent-shell regions with minimal spatial gradients, reasonably accurate PADs are inferred from simulated images. They demonstrate the importance of modeling PADs for image inversion and show that comparisons of models with real storm plasma images will reveal the global effects of these microscale processes.

Moore, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Chandra Observation of the X-ray Source Population of NGC 6946

We present the results of a study of discrete X-ray sources in NGC 6946 using a deep Chandra ACIS observation. Based on the slope of the log N-log S distribution and the general correlation of sources with the spiral arms, we infer that the overall discrete source sample in NGC 6946 is dominated by high mass X-ray binaries, in contrast to the source distributions in M31 and the Milky Way. This is consistent with the higher star formation rate in NGC 6946 than in those galaxies. We find that the strong X-ray sources in the region of the galactic center do not correlate in detail with images of the region in the near-IR, although one of them may be coincident with the galactic center. The non-central ultra-luminous X-ray source in NGC 6946, previously identified with a supernova remnant, has an X-ray spectrum and luminosity that is inconsistent with either a traditional pulsar wind nebula or a blast wave remnant.

Holt, S. S.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Aerothermodynamic Testing of Protuberances and Penetrations on the NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle Heat Shield in the NASA Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel

An experimental wind tunnel program is being conducted in support of an Agency wide effort to develop a replacement for the Space Shuttle and to support the NASA s long-term objective of returning to the moon and then on to Mars. This paper documents experimental measurements made on several scaled ceramic heat transfer models of the proposed Crew Exploration Vehicle. Global heat transfer images and heat transfer distributions obtained using phosphor thermography were used to infer interference heating on the Crew Exploration Vehicle Cycle 1 heat shield from local protuberances and penetrations for both laminar and turbulent heating conditions. Test parametrics included free stream Reynolds numbers of 1.0x10(exp 6)/ft to 7.25x10(exp 6)/ft in Mach 6 air at a fixed angle-of-attack. Single arrays of discrete boundary layer trips were used to trip the boundary layer approaching the protuberances/penetrations to a turbulent state. Also, the effects of three compression pad diameters, two radial locations of compression pad/tension tie location, compression pad geometry, and rotational position of compression pad/tension tie were examined. The experimental data highlighted in this paper are to be used to validate CFD tools that will be used to generate the flight aerothermodynamic database. Heat transfer measurements will also assist in the determination of the most appropriate engineering methods that will be used to assess local flight environments associated with protuberances/penetrations of the CEV thermal protection system.

Liechty, Derek S.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Titan's Atmospheric Dynamics and Meteorology

Titan, after Venus, is the second example of an atmosphere with a global cyclostrophic circulation in the solar system, but a circulation that has a strong seasonal modulation in the middle atmosphere. Direct measurement of Titan's winds, particularly observations tracking the Huygens probe at 10degS, indicate that the zonal winds are generally in the sense of the satellites rotation. They become cyclostrophic approx. 35 km above the surface and generally increase with altitude, with the exception of a sharp minimum centered near 75 km, where the wind velocity decreases to nearly zero. Zonal winds derived from the temperature field retrieved from Cassini measurements, using the thermal wind equation, indicate a strong winter circumpolar vortex, with maximum winds at mid northern latitudes of 190 ms-' near 300 km. Above this level, the vortex decays. Curiously, the zonal winds and temperatures are symmetric about a pole that is offset from the surface pole by approx.4 degrees. The cause of this is not well understood, but it may reflect the response of a cyclostrophic circulation to the offset between the equator, where the distance to the rotation axis is greatest, and the solar equator. The mean meridional circulation can be inferred from the temperature field and the meridional distribution of organic molecules and condensates and hazes. Both the warm temperatures in the north polar region near 400 km and the enhanced concentration of several organic molecules suggests subsidence there during winter and early spring. Stratospheric condensates are localized at high northern latitudes, with a sharp cut-off near 50degN. Titan's winter polar vortex appears to share many of the same characteristics of winter vortices on Earth-the ozone holes. Global mapping of temperatures, winds, and composition in he troposphere, by contrast, is incomplete. The few suitable discrete clouds that have bee found for tracking indicate smaller velocities than aloft, consistent with the Huygens measurements. At low latitudes the zonal winds near the surface appear not to be westward as on Earth, but eastward. Because the net zonal-mean time-averaged torq exerted by the surface on the atmosphere should vanish, this implies westward flow o part of the surface; the question is where. The latitude contrast in tropospheric temperatures, deduced from radio occultations at low, mid, and high latitudes, is small approx.5 K at the tropopause and approx.3 K at the surface.

Flasar, F. M.↗