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At least 559 records · Page 31

Quantifying parameters for Bayesian prior assumptions when estimating the probability of failure of software

Software reliability has become increasingly important, especially in life-critical situations. The ability to measure the results of testing and to quantify software reliability is needed. If this is accomplished, a certain minimum amount of reliability for a piece of software can be specified, and testing and/or other analysis may be done until that minimum number has been attained. There are many models for estimating software reliability. The accuracy of these models has been challenged and many revisions for the models and recalibration techniques have been devised. Of particular interest is the method of estimating the probability of failure of software when no failures have yet occurred in its current version as described by Miller. This model uses black box testing with formulae based on Bayesian estimation. The focus is on three interrelated issues: estimating the probability of failure when testing has revealed no errors; modifying this estimation when the input use distribution does not match the test distribution; and combining the results from random testing with other relevant information to obtain a possibly more accurate estimate of the probability of failure. Obtaining relevant information about the software and combining the results for a better estimate for the Miller model are discussed.

Long, Jacquelyn E.↗

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As lunar missions increase in complexity inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient capability of the Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) system to support their scientific objectives. In addition, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program initiates the proliferation of public and private exploration partnerships using small satellites from commercial and private organizations, expanding traditionally confined low Earth orbit to be used for missions beyond geosynchronous orbit (Zucherman et al., 2022). Therefore, the Lunar PNT system is also required to provide navigation services compatible with the smaller platforms being sent by the public and private sectors, like CubeSats. However, traditional approaches to deep space missions’ navigation based on ground radio facilities have difficulties in providing sufficient support for the increasing number of users and communication at a distance from the Earth (Kaplev et al., 2022). In particular, the existing Lunar navigation technologies such as weak signal global positioning system (GPS) and deep space network (DSN) are not able to ensure operations of the upcoming small-scale Lunar missions due to their limitations in localization performance as well as capacity aspects. Another way to provide Lunar PNT service is to create a dedicated Lunar global navigation satellite system (GNSS) constellation, like GNSS systems on Earth. Space agencies like NASA, ESA, and JAXA are now developing the lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS). In their systems, satellites will be deployed in moon orbits to provide the communication, positioning, navigation, and timing (CPNT) service at the lunar south pole region where the Artemis base camp will be expected (Murata et al., 2022). Meanwhile, common challenges considered in lunar PNT research arise from poor geometry of the terrestrial GNSS satellites when seen from the lunar user, highly perturbed lunar orbits, and limitations in power, size, and cost of the equipment on lunar satellites (Iiyama et al., 2023). It is also not clear if there will be enough Lunar users to support the cost and resources this would require as the Low-cost surface missions may not be able to support the large power, mass, and weight requirements that these navigation solutions entail (Niemoeller et al., 2022). As an alternative, existing Lunar science and exploration assets could be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions (Hagenau et al., 2021). Introducing the non-dedicated and ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation gives a way to provide PNT services on-demand. The non-dedicated swarm assets of Lunar constellations are designed to localize themselves with minimal interaction with Earth by adding cooperative autonomous localization to lunar missions, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. An autonomous localization of Lunar constellations is based on the concept of the decentralized PNT system with a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) approach to state estimation for minimal onboard operating costs. In the distributed data processing algorithm, computation is broken down and assigned to each satellite, resulting in a considerably decreased computational amount while maintaining the accuracy of the orbit ephemeris and clock offsets as the result of centralized data processing (Wen et al., 2019). The DEKF requires spacecraft to perform two-way ranging operations with each other to communicate simultaneously, leveraging neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements such as pseudoranges to, and relative velocities between, visible satellites as sensor values (Frank et al., 2021). The Lunar autonomous PNT simulation (LAPS) demonstrated the feasibility of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar small-sat constellations based on the DEKF in Hagenau et al. (2021) and evaluated the matching algorithm proposed by Frank et al. (2021) in scheduling position estimation updates. In previous papers, all assets and measurements are assumed to be always available without consideration of the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure. This study presents localization performance with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets and users to demonstrate the robustness of the decentralized Lunar PNT service in more realistic scenarios. Main issues arising from communication failure include spacecraft permanent or transient loss, antenna failures, message delays, etc. We tested four possible reasons for network degradation for 7 days in 21 satellites frozen with an altitude of 5500 km, evenly spaced around 3 circular, 40 inclination orbital planes where each spacecraft has two directional antennas. As anchor nodes with an independent estimate of their position are required in the DEKF approach, two ground nodes in each pole and one node in the gateway were implemented in the simulation. First, the most probable failure scenario involves the loss of a single spacecraft due to solar interference and technical malfunctions of the assets. Losing the availability of a single spacecraft means losing the two-way ISL measurement of the asset in the DEKF update. In order to provide the best possible quality of PNT service with limited time and resources, the distributed Lunar constellations must schedule the communication activities. The scheduler leverages mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for the coordination and scheduling of the desired “as-needed” localization service (Niemoeller et al., 2022). We assume the scheduler has completely excluded the spacecraft information before the DEKF update in the failure scenario. When a random spacecraft has been turned off at a specific time, the robustness of the autonomous Lunar PNT system is evaluated. The simulation results give an 11.5% degradation in median position accuracy compared to the idealized performance excluding the asset loss. Second, a large number of assets may vanish due to major hardware problems or meteor strikes around the moon. A multiple spacecraft loss can degrade the localization performance very fast by losing the communication ability to do cross-plane measurements and in-plane measurements in a 3-plane constellation. When the matching-based scheduler is aware of ISL availability, we investigate a large number of in-plane and cross-plane asset vanishments both in close proximity and equally spaced throughout the orbital plane. According to the simulations, the loss of in-plane measurements gives 40.2% degradation while cross-plane measurements degrade 50.5% of asset localization performance among available assets. Therefore, it is concluded that cross-plane measurements are more important in improving the position estimation accuracy. Third, spacecraft failure information can be lost due to the internal message delay, resulting in the DEKF update scheduler to solve the matching problem with unavailable assets. The DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations where a global broadcast network and a 2-way ISL network setup take 6 minutes in total (Frank et al., 2021). Once the broadcast network successfully transmits and receives information, a random spacecraft may lose its availability right before solving the matching problem. This means the matching solution is no longer optimal, resulting in degradation in the localization performance. A numerical assessment shows the matching-based scheduler with knowing failure holds 11.5% of position accuracy degradation, whereas the scheduler without knowing failure gives 34% degraded localization performance without asset loss. Fourth, a transient loss of a single or multiple spacecraft may occur due to their antenna outages. After losing the two-way ISL availability for a few DEKF update cycles, the availability of spacecraft can easily be recovered as their states have been independently updated using measurements from anchor nodes. It is likely that the longer failure will result in worse localization performance. We have tested the transient failure of a random single asset for 30 min in the simulation, which is losing 3 update cycles in the DEKF system. From the simulation results, the position accuracy has been degraded to 4.84% which is better than the degraded localization performance of 11.5% from the permanent loss scenario among available assets. In conclusion, the autonomous Lunar PNT system based on the DEKF approach shows the ability to maintain resilience and robustness in the possible communication failure scenarios, ensuring that localization accuracy is preserved across various network degradation and outages. Future studies on investigating user localization performance near the South Pole and the broadcast network system will be continued in the following months.

Yeji Kim↗

High frequency sound attenuation in short flow ducts

A geometrical acoustics approach is proposed as a practical design tool for absorbent liners in such short flow ducts as may be found in turbofan engine nacelles. As an example, a detailed methodology is presented for three different types of sources in a parallel plate duct containing uniform ambient flow. A plane wave whose wavefronts are not normal to the duct walls, an arbitrarily located point source, and a spatially harmonic line source are each considered. Optimal wall admittance distributions are found, and it is shown how to estimate the insertion loss for any admittance distribution. The extension of the methodology to realistic source distributions in variable area cylindrical or annular ducts containing arbitrary flow is shown to be conceptually straightforward and computationally practical on a vector-hardware digital computer.

Posey, J. W.↗

Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System Modeling, Calibration, and Error Analysis

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI)/Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) project installed seven pressure ports through the MSL Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heatshield to measure heatshield surface pressures during entry. These measured surface pressures are used to generate estimates of atmospheric quantities based on modeled surface pressure distributions. In particular, the quantities to be estimated from the MEADS pressure measurements include the dynamic pressure, angle of attack, and angle of sideslip. This report describes the calibration of the pressure transducers utilized to reconstruct the atmospheric data and associated uncertainty models, pressure modeling and uncertainty analysis, and system performance results. The results indicate that the MEADS pressure measurement system hardware meets the project requirements.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

Preliminary Estimation of Black Carbon Deposition from Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid Data and Its Possible Impact on Snow Albedo Changes Over Himalayan Glaciers During the Pre-Monsoon Season

The possible minimal range of reduction in snow surface albedo due to dry deposition of black carbon (BC) in the pre-monsoon period (March-May) was estimated as a lower bound together with the estimation of its accuracy, based on atmospheric observations at the Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid (NCO-P) sited at 5079 m a.s.l. in the Himalayan region. We estimated a total BC deposition rate of 2.89 g m-2 day-1 providing a total deposition of 266 micrograms/ square m for March-May at the site, based on a calculation with a minimal deposition velocity of 1.0 10(exp -4) m/s with atmospheric data of equivalent BC concentration. Main BC size at NCO-P site was determined as 103.1-669.8 nm by correlation analysis between equivalent BC concentration and particulate size distribution in the atmosphere. We also estimated BC deposition from the size distribution data and found that 8.7% of the estimated dry deposition corresponds to the estimated BC deposition from equivalent BC concentration data. If all the BC is deposited uniformly on the top 2-cm pure snow, the corresponding BC concentration is 26.0-68.2 microgram/kg assuming snow density variations of 195-512 kg/ cubic m of Yala Glacier close to NCO-P site. Such a concentration of BC in snow could result in 2.0-5.2% albedo reductions. From a simple numerical calculations and if assuming these albedo reductions continue throughout the year, this would lead to a runoff increases of 70-204 mm of water drainage equivalent of 11.6-33.9% of the annual discharge of a typical Tibetan glacier. Our estimates of BC concentration in snow surface for pre-monsoon season can be considered comparable to those at similar altitude in the Himalayan region, where glaciers and perpetual snow region starts in the vicinity of NCO-P. Our estimates from only BC are likely to represent a lower bound for snow albedo reductions, since a fixed slower deposition velocity was used and atmospheric wind and turbulence effects, snow aging, dust deposition, and snow albedo feedbacks were not considered. This study represents the first investigation about BC deposition on snow from atmospheric aerosol data in Himalayas and related albedo effect is especially the first track at the southern slope of Himalayas.

Yasunari, T. J.↗

Oceanic Fluxes of Mass, Heat and Freshwater: A Global Estimate and Perspective

Data from fifteen globally distributed, modern, high resolution, hydrographic oceanic transects are combined in an inverse calculation using large scale box models. The models provide estimates of the global meridional heat and freshwater budgets and are used to examine the sensitivity of the global circulation, both inter and intra-basin exchange rates, to a variety of external constraints provided by estimates of Ekman, boundary current and throughflow transports. A solution is found which is consistent with both the model physics and the global data set, despite a twenty five year time span and a lack of seasonal consistency among the data. The overall pattern of the global circulation suggested by the models is similar to that proposed in previously published local studies and regional reviews. However, significant qualitative and quantitative differences exist. These differences are due both to the model definition and to the global nature of the data set.

MacDonald, Alison Marguerite↗

Scatter factor and reliability of aircraft structures

The concept of time to first failure is utilized to perform a parameter study of scatter factors of aircraft structures. The Weibull distribution is used for estimation of characteristic and certifiable lives. Scatter factors for various Weibull-shaped parameters, fleet sizes and level of reliabilities are calculated. It is concluded that the currently used range of scatter factors (2 through 4) is too narrow for the estimation of a safe life and that a safe and economical design for structural materials with shape parameters less than 2 does not seem feasible except for very small fleet sizes and low levels of reliability.

Schueller, G. I.↗

Urban and regional land use analysis: CARETS and Census Cities experiment package

The author has identified the following significant results. A number of likely applications and follow-on analyses are suggested by the census cities evaluation of ERTS-1 and Skylab data. Some of these applications are: (1) estimate water use requirements; (2) define urban expansion; (3) document the pattern of residential development and assess quality of residential environment: (4) project future population densities, and estimate changes in population distribution between censuses; (5) assess environmental impact resulting from gradual as well as catastrophic changes.

Alexander, R.↗

Ground effects on Loran-C signals

In conjunction with the test and evaluation of the position fixing capabilities of the Army Manpack Loran Receiver AN/PSN-6, an extensive series of time difference and signal amplitude measurements were made within a 100 km map grid square encompassing Fort Monmouth, New Jersey. The test location is within the coverage area of the East Coast Loran-C Chain. The data were used to develop a simple smooth-earth model for the test area as well as to estimate the magnitude and distributions of deviations from this model. Local propagation processes associated with topographic features and the grid of overhead wires in the test area are shown to contribute to the deviations from the model.

Pearce, D. C.↗

An investigation of airflow over the aft portions of a variable sweep fighter configuration

An investigation of air flow over the aft portions of a variable sweep fighter aircraft configuration was made. Tests conducted in the unitary plan wind tunnel at Mach number 2.16 included measurements of forces, moments, and local static pressures as well as visual recordings of the air flow. An aerodynamic analytical prediction method was evaluated when used in data comparison at angles of attack of 0, 5, and 15 degrees. The results indicate that in supersonic flow the typical outboard located twin vertical tail arrangement tends to provide a more positive increment in normal-force on the afterbody fuselage and the horizontal tail than a single center-mounted vertical tail of similar planform shape. In addition, the results indicate that a method for aerodynamic analysis of wing-body-tail configurations currently available can provide reasonable estimates of pressure coefficient distributions on configurations in regions of complex supersonic flow. At this time, however, the available analytical method cannot adequately replace experimental wind tunnel tests for determining the supersonic flow environment of a given configuration.

Graves, E. B.↗

Performance analysis of digital FM demodulators for fading channels in the threshold region

The quasi-optimum digital FM demodulators for fading channels reported earlier (1975) reflected the system performance accurately under high signal to noise ratio conditions. In this paper, the prediction of the system performance for low SNR values is considered. A new set of error variance algorithms is developed from the filter algorithm assuming a Gaussian distribution for the state estimation errors and taking the effect of high frequency terms into consideration. Simulation analysis for an FM system with Rician fading channel shows that these algorithms predict the system performance accurately in the threshold region.

Dharamsi, M. T.↗

Communication architecture for large geostationary platforms

Large platforms have been proposed for supporting multipurpose communication payloads to exploit economy of scale, reduce congestion in the geostationary orbit, provide interconnectivity between diverse earth stations, and obtain significant frequency reuse with large multibeam antennas. This paper addresses a specific system design, starting with traffic projections in the next two decades and discussing tradeoffs and design approaches for major components including: antennas, transponders, and switches. Other issues explored are selection of frequency bands, modulation, multiple access, switching methods, and techniques for servicing areas with nonuniform traffic demands. Three-major services are considered: a high-volume trunking system, a direct-to-user system, and a broadcast system for video distribution and similar functions. Estimates of payload weight and d.c. power requirements are presented. Other subjects treated are: considerations of equipment layout for servicing by an orbit transfer vehicle, mechanical stability requirements for the large antennas, and reliability aspects of the large number of transponders employed.

Bond, F. E.↗

Expected characteristics of large dust particles in periodic Comet Halley

Observational evidence is presented for dust particles heavier than 0.01 millionth of a gram expelled from Comet Halley. Dust emitted around 1.5 AU pre-perihelion, the point in orbit where a probe would fly through the comet in 1985, should have contributed to an anomalous tail that could have been observed in 1910. From positions of the trailing boundary of the ordinary dust tail at that time, it is concluded that the production of dust started to increase steeply at 0.7 to 0.8 AU before perihelion. Observations in late January 1836 are used to derive the production of dust vs. time and the the expected number of large-particle impacts on the protective shield of the 1985 flythrough probe. From data on other comets, it is estimated that the size distribution for large particles is likely to vary inversely according to the fourth or slightly higher power of the size.

Sekanina, Z.↗

Statistical analysis of multivariate atmospheric variables

Topics covered include: (1) estimation in discrete multivariate distributions; (2) a procedure to predict cloud cover frequencies in the bivariate case; (3) a program to compute conditional bivariate normal parameters; (4) the transformation of nonnormal multivariate to near-normal; (5) test of fit for the extreme value distribution based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (6) test of fit for continuous distributions based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (7) effect of correlated observations on confidence sets based upon chi-square statistics; and (8) generation of random variates from specified distributions.

Tubbs, J. D.↗

Accelerated life testing effects on CMOS microcircuit characteristics

This report covers the time period from May 1976 to December 1979 and encompasses the three phases of accelerated testing: Phase 1, the 250 C testing; Phase 2, the 200 C testing; and Phase 3, the 125 C testing. The duration of the test in Phase 1 and Phase 2 was sufficient to take the devices into the wear out region. The wear out distributions were used to estimate the activation energy between the 250 C and the 200 C test temperatures. The duration of the 125 C test, 20,000 hours, was not sufficient to bring the test devices into the wear out region; consequently the third data point at 125 C for determining the consistency of activation energy could not be obtained. It was estimated that, for the most complex of the three device types, the activation energy between 200 C and 125 C should be at least as high as that between 250 C and 200 C. The practicality of the use of high temperature for the accelerated life tests from the point of view of durability of equipment was assessed. Guidelines for the development of accelerated life test conditions were proposed. The use of the silicon nitride overcoat to improve the high temperature accelerated life test characteristics of CMOS microcircuits was explored in Phase 4 of this study and is attached as an appendix to this report.

Source record↗

Distorted radio sources in Abell 2255 - Evidence of intergalactic gas 2.5 to 5 megaparsecs from the cluster center

Spectroscopic data are presented for radio galaxies in the A2255 region. The results indicate that the galaxies associated with distorted radio sources 2.5-5 Mpc projected radius from the cluster center are indeed cluster members. This implies the presence of substantial intergalactic gas 10-20 core radii from the cluster center. Reasonable assumptions concerning the gas distribution result in an estimated minimum mass for the A2255 intracluster gas of 4 x 10 to the 14th solar masses.

Hintzen, P.↗

Heat balance statistics derived from four-dimensional assimilations with a global circulation model

The reported investigation was conducted to develop a reliable procedure for obtaining the diabatic and vertical terms required for atmospheric heat balance studies. The method developed employs a four-dimensional assimilation mode in connection with the general circulation model of NASA's Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences. The initial analysis was conducted with data obtained in connection with the 1976 Data Systems Test. On the basis of the results of the investigation, it appears possible to use the model's observationally constrained diagnostics to provide estimates of the global distribution of virtually all of the quantities which are needed to compute the atmosphere's heat and energy balance.

Schubert, S. D.↗