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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

How Old are Lunar Lobate Scarps? 1. Seismic Resetting of Crater Size-Frequency Distributions

Previous studies have estimated the ages of lunar lobate scarps, some of the youngest tectonic landforms on the Moon, based on the estimated life-times of their fresh morphologies and associated small graben, using crater degradation ages, or via buffered and traditional crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements. Here, we reexamine five scarps previously dated by Binder and Gunga (1985) with crater degradation ages to benchmark the evaluation of both the buffered and traditional CSFD approaches for determination of absolute model ages (AMAs) at scarps. Both CSFD methods yield similar ages for each individual scarp, indicating that fault activity not only can be measured on the scarp itself, but also in the surrounding terrain - an indication that tectonic activity causes surface renewal both adjacent to and even kilometers distant from scarps. Size-frequency variations in the regions surrounding the scarps are thus useful for studying the extent and severity of the ground motion caused by coseismic slip events during scarp formation. All age determination approaches continue to indicate that lunar lobate scarps were active in the late Copernican, with some scarps possibly experiencing activity within the last 100 Ma.

Lunar Lobate Scarps↗
NASA NTRS2018

How old are lunar lobate scarps? 1. Seismic resetting of crater size-frequency distributions

Previous studies have estimated the ages of lunar lobate scarps, some of the youngest tectonic landforms on the Moon, based on the estimated life-times of their fresh morphologies and associated small graben, using crater degradation ages, or via buffered and traditional crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements. Here, we reexamine five scarps previously dated by Binder and Gunga (1985) with crater degradation ages to benchmark the evaluation of both the buffered and traditional CSFD approaches for determination of absolute model ages (AMAs) at scarps. Both CSFD methods yield similar ages for each individual scarp, indicating that fault activity not only can be measured on the scarp itself, but also in the surrounding terrain –an indication that tectonic activity causes surface renewal both adjacent to and even kilometers distant from scarps. Size-frequency variations in the regions surrounding the scarps are thus useful for studying the extent and severity of the ground motion caused by coseismic slip events during scarp formation. All age determination approaches continue to indicate that lunar lobate scarps were active in the late Copernican, with some scarps possibly experiencing activity within the last 100 Ma.

Carolyn H. van der Bogert↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic signal recovery in distribution grids using compressive lossy measurements

Distribution system state estimation requires reliable aggregation of the measured data. However, the large volume of the measured data imposes a significant stress on the underlying communication infrastructure. With the challenges associated with measurement availability, current distribution systems are typically unobservable. To cope with the unobservability issue, compressive sensing theory allows us to recover system state information from a small number of measurements provided the states of the distribution system exhibit sparsity. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of an updated Kalman filtered modified compressive sensing (KF-ModCS) technique that dynamically estimates the grid states using a small fraction of measured data. In practice, measurements used for sparsity based state estimation may also be intermittent due to communication network induced losses. Further, to understand the effect of packet losses on KF-ModCS, we provide an upper bound for the expected variances of the state estimation error for a given rate of information loss. This upper bound is further improved if the support set of the sparse signal that characterizes the state dynamics does not change over time and/or the reduced model is observable. Simulations based on two practical data sets collected from actual customers in a distribution grid validate the theoretical results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adversarial sampling of unknown and high-dimensional conditional distributions

Many engineering problems require the prediction of realization-to-realization variability or a refined description of modeled quantities. In that case, it is necessary to sample elements from unknown high-dimensional spaces with possibly millions of degrees of freedom. While there exist methods able to sample elements from probability density functions (PDF) with known shapes, several approximations need to be made when the distribution is unknown. In this paper the sampling method, as well as the inference of the underlying distribution, are both handled with a data-driven method known as generative adversarial networks (GAN), which trains two competing neural networks to produce a network that can effectively generate samples from the training set distribution. In practice, it is often necessary to draw samples from conditional distributions. When the conditional variables are continuous, only one (if any) data point corresponding to a particular value of a conditioning variable may be available, which is not sufficient to estimate the conditional distribution. This work handles this problem using an a priori estimation of the conditional moments of a PDF. Herein, two approaches, stochastic estimation, and an external neural network are compared for computing these moments; however, any preferred method can be used. The algorithm is demonstrated in the case of the deconvolution of a filtered turbulent flow field. It is shown that all the versions of the proposed algorithm effectively sample the target conditional distribution with minimal impact on the quality of the samples compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, the procedure can be used as a metric for the diversity of samples generated by a conditional GAN (cGAN) conditioned with continuous variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1989

Combining electric field and aurora observations from DE 1 and 2 with ground magnetometer records to estimate ionospheric electromagnetic quantities

Global distribution of electric fields and currents in the high-latitude ionosphere was estimated using data from the ground-based network of magnetometers and from nearly simultaneous observations with DE 1 and DE 2 satellites. The electric field and current distributions at high altitudes were calculated from instantaneous ionospheric conductivity (estimated from the DE 1 auroral data), using the Kamide et al. (1981) magnetogram inversion technique; an optimum conductivity was then chosen iteratively so that the resultant electric fields would become consistent with electric field deduced from ion drifts measured along the DE-2 orbit. It is demonstrated that, when analyzing the large-scale electrodynamics of individual substorms, statistical conductivity models are not fully adequate for use with the magnetogram inversion technique.

Kamide, Y.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A baseline for ensemble-based, time-resolved inflow reconstruction for a single turbine using large-eddy simulations and latent diffusion models

We are interested in reconstructing winds flowing through a turbine on a second-by-second basis over a 10 min window. Previously, we developed a machine learning algorithm that takes in a snapshot of wind speed measurements and generates ensembles of three-dimensional wind field estimates. Here, we use these estimates as initial conditions in large-eddy simulations and reconstruct atmospheric and turbine response dynamic quantities in a synthetic field campaign. In doing so, we establish a baseline for model validation that future time-aware data assimilation techniques will be compared to. In turbine-free case studies, ground truth wind speeds consistently fall within our estimated wind speed distribution for the first 100 s after the simulation start. In simulations with turbines, the wind estimates show a small bias of 0.10 m s 1 and good correlation of 0.80 during the first 100 s. During this window, our estimates of the Blade 1 bending moment and generator power typically span the ground truth, with the estimate of the former performing better overall. In summary, this approach shows promise as a stand-alone technique for reconstructing real-world inflow and turbine dynamics in 1-2 min windows and as a foundation for future time-aware data assimilation techniques.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of runaway electron impact on instrumented sacrificial limiters on DIII-D

Instrumented sacrificial limiter heads, both domed (proud) and flat (flush) are used in DIII-D runaway electron (RE) wall strikes to study the wall impact dynamics with high spatial and time resolution. The approximate structure of the RE wetted area and heating depth on the domed limiter heads were predicted qualitatively using orbit-tracking simulations, although a strong left–right asymmetry (about the magnetic field direction) was not captured well by the simulations. It is hypothesized that this difference is perhaps due to the local 3D magnetic field perturbation of the dome limiter head. The average kinetic energy K and pitch angle θ of REs striking the limiter head were estimated from the spatial distribution of local HXR emission and were estimated to be roughly K ≈ 4 MeV and θ ≈ 0.2 rad. These values are roughly consistent with in-plasma values estimated before the loss event, indicating that RE kinetic energy and pitch angle are not drastically altered when transporting to the wall. Large shot–shot variations (1–10 kJ) in energy deposition into the limiter head were observed and were explained by shot–shot variations in locked magneto-hydrodynamics mode toroidal phase. For the largest deposited energies (10 kJ), graphite material failure and explosive dust release was observed, and the depth of material failure at higher energy deposition was successfully reproduced using modelling of volumetric energy deposition and brittle failure. The presence of energetic (keV) level ion impact during the RE wall strike was confirmed by three different surface analysis techniques. The ratio of energetic ion to RE flux appears to be larger on flat surfaces within the RE wetted area, although the energetic ion flux and total energy flux due to energetic ions have not yet been quantified.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multimodal fission from self-consistent calculations

When multiple fission modes coexist in a given nucleus, distinct fragment yield distributions appear. Multimodal fission has been observed in a number of fissioning nuclei spanning the nuclear chart, and this phenomenon is expected to affect the nuclear abundances synthesized during the rapid neutron-capture process (𝑟-process). In this study, we generalize the previously proposed hybrid model for fission-fragment yield distributions to predict competing fission modes and estimate the resulting yield distributions. Here, our framework allows for a comprehensive large-scale calculation of fission-fragment yields suited for 𝑟-process nuclear network studies. Nuclear density functional theory is employed to obtain the potential energy and collective inertia tensor on a multidimensional collective space defined by mass multipole moments. Fission pathways and their relative probabilities are determined using the nudged elastic band method. Based on this information, mass and charge fission yields are predicted using the recently developed hybrid model. Fission properties of fermium isotopes are calculated in the axial quadrupole-octupole collective space for three energy density functionals (EDFs). Disagreement between the EDFs appears when multiple fission modes are present. Within our framework, the UNEDF⁢1 HFB EDF agrees best with experimental data. Calculations in the axial quadrupole-octupole-hexadecapole collective space improve the agreement with the experiment for SkM*. We also discuss the sensitivity of fission predictions on the choice of EDF for several superheavy nuclei. Fission-fragment yield predictions for nuclei with multiple fission modes are sensitive to the underlying EDF. For large-scale calculations in which a minimal number of collective coordinates is considered, UNEDF⁢1 HFB provides the best description of experimental data, though the sensitivity motivates robust quantification of the uncertainties of the theoretical model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Using a laser aureole to invert lidar return

An aureole generated by a laser beam was studied. The strength of the signal redirected towards a sensor high above the surface by a combination of one scattering event in the marine boundary layer (mbl) and one single reflection event from the ocean surface was estimated. A model of mbl aerosol size distributions was used to estimate Mie scattering for a wide range of meteorolocial conditions. The sea surface reflection was determined from a Gaussian model of the wave slopes. These laser aureoles which were estimated over the wide range of conditions and were normalized by the reflected laser light were found to be highly correlated with the optical depth of the boundary layer. By estimating optical depth from the aureole, the Bernoulli-Riccati inversion of lidar return could be constrained and the inversion accuracy improved. A Monte Carlo program was developed to study the laser aureole generated by up to 8 orders of reflection and scattering. The aureole was generated by a narrow, 10 nsec laser pulse at 1.06 microns and measured by a receiver 10 km above the ocean surface. The original theoretical computation compared well with the Monte Carlo method. When multiple scattereffects were included, the normalized aureole was still highly correlated with the mbl optical depth over the range of conditions.

Hooper, W. P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solving inverse problems in stochastic models using deep neural networks and adversarial training

Inverse problems associated with stochastic models constitute a significant portion of scientific and engineering applications. In such cases the unknown quantities are distributions. The applicability of traditional methods is limited because of their demanding assumptions or prohibitive computational consumption; for example, maximum likelihood methods require closed-form density functions, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo needs a large number of simulations. We propose a new method that estimates the unknown distribution by matching the statistical properties between observed and simulated random processes. We leverage the expressive power of neural networks to approximate the unknown distribution and use a discriminative neural network for computing the statistical discrepancies between the observed and simulated random processes. Here we demonstrated numerically that the proposed methods can estimate both the model parameters and learn complicated unknown distributions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1986

Observational factors affecting studies of Comet P/Halley's visual light curve

Over 5000 visual magnitude estimates of comet Halley were used as a data base for studying the factors which affect the distribution of visually estimated total magnitudes of comets. Observations made on eight selected days were studied. It is concluded that scatter in the magnitude data is a function of (in order of importance) observer experience, comet morphology, and instrumentation used. Experienced observers generally report the brightest magnitude estimates.

Edberg, Stephen J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Photometric Studies of GEO Orbital Debris

The photometric signature of a debris object can be useful in determining what the physical characteristics of a piece of debris are. We report on optical observations in multiple filters of debris at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Our sample is taken from GEO objects discovered in a survey with the University of Michigan's 0.6-m aperture Schmidt telescope MODEST (for Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope), and then followed up in real-time with the Cerro Tololo Inter- American Observatory (CTIO) 0.9-m for orbits and photometry. Our goal is to determine 6 parameter orbits and measure colors for all objects fainter than R=15th magnitude that are discovered in the MODEST survey. At this magnitude the distribution of observed angular rates changes significantly from that of brighter objects. There are two objectives: 1. Estimate the orbital distribution of objects selected on the basis of two observational criteria: brightness (magnitude) and angular rates. 2. Obtain magnitudes and colors in standard astronomical filters (BVRI) for comparison with reflectance spectra of likely spacecraft materials. What is the faint debris likely to be? More than 90 calibrated sequences of R-B-V-I-R magnitudes for a sample of 50 objects have been obtained with the CTIO 0.9-m. For objects that do not show large brightness variations, the colors are largely redder than solar in both B-R and R-I. The width of the color distribution may be intrinsic to the nature of the surfaces, but also could be that we are seeing irregularly shaped objects and measuring the colors at different times with just one telescope. For a smaller sample of objects we have observed with synchronized CCD cameras on the two telescopes. The CTIO 0.9-m observes in B, and MODEST in R. The CCD cameras are electronically linked together so that the start time and duration of observations are the same to better than 50 milliseconds. Thus the B-R color is a true measure of the surface of the debris piece facing the telescopes for that observation. Any change in color reflects a real change in the debris surface. We will compare our observations with models and laboratory measurements of selected surfaces.

Seitzer, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2009

Photometric Studies of GEO Debris

The photometric signature of a debris object can be useful in determining what the physical characteristics of a piece of debris are. We report on optical observations in multiple filters of debris at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Our sample is taken from GEO objects discovered in a survey with the University of Michigan's 0.6-m aperture Schmidt telescope MODEST (for Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope), and then followed up in real-time with the SMARTS (Small and Medium Aperture Research Telescope System) 0.9-m at CTIO for orbits and photometry. Our goal is to determine 6 parameter orbits and measure colors for all objects fainter than R = 15 th magnitude that are discovered in the MODEST survey. At this magnitude the distribution of observed angular rates changes significantly from that of brighter objects. There are two objectives: 1. Estimate the orbital distribution of objects selected on the basis of two observational criteria: brightness (magnitude) and angular rates. 2. Obtain magnitudes and colors in standard astronomical filters (BVRI) for comparison with reflectance spectra of likely spacecraft materials. What is the faint debris likely to be? In this paper we report on the photometric results. For a sample of 50 objects, more than 90 calibrated sequences of R-B-V-I-R magnitudes have been obtained with the CTIO 0.9-m. For objects that do not show large brightness variations, the colors are largely redder than solar in both B-R and R-I. The width of the color distribution may be intrinsic to the nature of the surfaces, but also could be that we are seeing irregularly shaped objects and measuring the colors at different times with just one telescope. For a smaller sample of objects we have observed with synchronized CCD cameras on the two telescopes. The CTIO 0.9-m observes in B, and MODEST in R. The CCD cameras are electronically linked together so that the start time and duration of observations are the same to better than 50 milliseconds. Thus the B-R color is a true measure of the surface of the debris piece facing the telescopes for that observation. Any change in color reflects a real change in the debris surface.

Seitzer, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS1973

An empirical Bayes approach for the Poisson life distribution.

A smooth empirical Bayes estimator is derived for the intensity parameter (hazard rate) in the Poisson distribution as used in life testing. The reliability function is also estimated either by using the empirical Bayes estimate of the parameter, or by obtaining the expectation of the reliability function. The behavior of the empirical Bayes procedure is studied through Monte Carlo simulation in which estimates of mean-squared errors of the empirical Bayes estimators are compared with those of conventional estimators such as minimum variance unbiased or maximum likelihood. Results indicate a significant reduction in mean-squared error of the empirical Bayes estimators over the conventional variety.

Canavos, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

National Airspace System↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DECADE cosmic shear project II: photometric redshift calibration of the source galaxy sample

We present the photometric redshift characterization and calibration for the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) weak lensing dataset: a catalog of 107 million galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) in the northern Galactic cap. The redshifts are estimated from a combination of wide-field photometry, deep-field photometry with associated redshift estimates, and a transfer function between the wide field and deep field that is estimated using a source injection catalog. We construct four tomographic bins for the galaxy catalog, and estimate the redshift distribution, $n(z)$, within each one using the Self-organizing Map Photo-Z (SOMPZ) methodology. Our estimates include the contributions from sample variance, zeropoint calibration uncertainties, and redshift biases, as quantified for the deep-field dataset. The total uncertainties on the mean redshifts are $σ_{\langle}$$_z$$_{\rangle} ≈ 0.01$. The SOMPZ estimates are then compared to those from the clustering redshift method, obtained by cross-correlating our source galaxies with galaxies in spectroscopic surveys, and are shown to be consistent with each other.

Anbajagane, D. [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United State↗
NASA NTRS1993

Entropy and climate. I - ERBE observations of the entropy production of the earth

An approximate method for estimating the global distributions of the entropy fluxes flowing through the upper boundary of the climate system is introduced, and an estimate of the entropy exchange between the earth and space and the entropy production of the planet is provided. Entropy fluxes calculated from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment measurements show how the long-wave entropy flux densities dominate the total entropy fluxes at all latitudes compared with the entropy flux densities associated with reflected sunlight, although the short-wave flux densities are important in the context of clear sky-cloudy sky net entropy flux differences. It is suggested that the entropy production of the planet is both constant for the 36 months of data considered and very near its maximum possible value. The mean value of this production is 0.68 x 10 exp 15 W/K, and the amplitude of the annual cycle is approximately 1 to 2 percent of this value.

Stephens, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Photometric Studies of Orbital Debris at GEO

We report on optical observations of debris at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) using two telescopes simultaneously at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile. The University of Michigan s 0.6/0.9-m Schmidt telescope MODEST (for Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope) was used in survey mode to find objects that potentially could be at GEO. Because GEO objects only appear in this telescope s field of view for an average of 5 minutes, a full six-parameter orbit can not be determined. Interrupting the survey for follow-up observations leads to incompleteness in the survey results. Instead, as objects are detected with MODEST, initial predictions assuming a circular orbit are done for where the object will be for the next hour, and the objects are reacquired as quickly as possible on the CTIO 0.9-m telescope. This second telescope follows-up during the first night and, if possible, over several more nights to obtain the maximum time arc possible, and the best six parameter orbit. Our goal is to obtain an initial orbit and calibrated colors for all detected objects fainter than R = 15th in order to estimate the orbital distribution of objects selected on the basis of two observational criteria: magnitude and angular rate. One objective is to estimate what fraction of objects selected on the basis of angular rate are not at GEO. A second objective is to obtain magnitudes and colors in standard astronomical filters (BVRI) for comparison with reflectance spectra of likely spacecraft materials.

Seitzer, Patrick↗