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NASA NTRS2011

Supportability for Beyond Low Earth Orbit Missions

Exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) presents many unique challenges that will require changes from current Supportability approaches. Currently, the International Space Station (ISS) is supported and maintained through a series of preplanned resupply flights, on which spare parts, including some large, heavy Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs), are delivered to the ISS. The Space Shuttle system provided for a robust capability to return failed components to Earth for detailed examination and potential repair. Additionally, as components fail and spares are not already on-orbit, there is flexibility in the transportation system to deliver those required replacement parts to ISS on a near term basis. A similar concept of operation will not be feasible for beyond LEO exploration. The mass and volume constraints of the transportation system and long envisioned mission durations could make it difficult to manifest necessary spares. The supply of on-demand spare parts for missions beyond LEO will be very limited or even non-existent. In addition, the remote nature of the mission, the design of the spacecraft, and the limitations on crew capabilities will all make it more difficult to maintain the spacecraft. Alternate concepts of operation must be explored in which required spare parts, materials, and tools are made available to make repairs; the locations of the failures are accessible; and the information needed to conduct repairs is available to the crew. In this paper, ISS heritage information is presented along with a summary of the challenges of beyond LEO missions. A number of Supportability issues are discussed in relation to human exploration beyond LEO. In addition, the impacts of various Supportability strategies will be discussed. Any measure that can be incorporated to reduce risk and improve mission success should be evaluated to understand the advantages and disadvantages of implementing those measures. Finally, an effort to model and evaluate Supportability for beyond LEO missions will be described.

Crillo, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Balancing Training Techniques for Flight Controller Certification

Training of ground control teams has been a difficult task in space operations. There are several intangible skills that must be learned to become the steely eyed men and women of mission control who respond to spacecraft failures that can lead to loss of vehicle or crew if handled improperly. And as difficult as training is, it can also be costly. Every day, month or year an operator is in training, is a day that not only they are being trained without direct benefit to the organization, but potentially an instructor or mentor is also being paid for hours spent assisting them. Therefore, optimization of the training flow is highly desired. Recently the Expedition Division (DI) at Johnson Space Flight Center has recreated their training flows for the purpose of both moving to an operator/specialist/instructor hierarchy and to address past inefficiencies in the training flow. This paper will discuss the types of training DI is utilizing in their new flows, and the balance that has been struck between the ideal learning environments and realistic constraints. Specifically, the past training flow for the ISS Attitude Determination and Control Officer will be presented, including drawbacks that were encountered. Then the new training flow will be discussed and how a new approach utilizes more training methods and teaching techniques. We will look at how DI has integrated classes, workshops, checkouts, module reviews, scenarios, OJT, paper sims, Mini Sims, and finally Integrated Sims to balance the cost and timing of training a new flight controller.

Gosling, Christina↗
NASA NTRS2003

Using Diffusion Bonding in Making Piezoelectric Actuators

A technique for the fabrication of piezoelectric actuators that generate acceptably large forces and deflections at relatively low applied voltages involves the stacking and diffusion bonding of multiple thin piezoelectric layers coated with film electrodes. The present technique stands in contrast to an older technique in which the layers are bonded chemically, by use of urethane or epoxy agents. The older chemical-bonding technique entails several disadvantages, including the following: It is difficult to apply the bonding agents to the piezoelectric layers. It is difficult to position the layers accurately and without making mistakes. There is a problem of disposal of hazardous urethane and epoxy wastes. The urethane and epoxy agents are nonpiezoelectric materials. As such, they contribute to the thickness of a piezoelectric laminate without contributing to its performance; conversely, for a given total thickness, the performance of the laminate is below that of a unitary piezoelectric plate of the same thickness. The figure depicts some aspects of the fabrication of a laminated piezoelectric actuator by the present diffusion- bonding technique. First, stock sheets of the piezoelectric material are inspected and tested. Next, the hole pattern shown in the figure is punched into the sheets. Alternatively, if the piezoelectric material is not a polymer, then the holes are punched in thermoplastic films. Then both faces of each punched piezoelectric sheet or thermoplastic film are coated with a silver-ink electrode material by use of a silkscreen printer. The electrode and hole patterns are designed for minimal complexity and minimal waste of material. After a final electrical test, all the coated piezoelectric layers (or piezoelectric layers and coated thermoplastic films) are stacked in an alignment jig, which, in turn, is placed in a curved press for the diffusion-bonding process. In this process, the stack is pressed and heated at a specified curing temperature and pressure for a specified curing time. The pressure, temperature, and time depend on the piezoelectric material selected. At the end of the diffusion-bonding process, the resulting laminated piezoelectric actuator is tested to verify the adequacy of the mechanical output as a function of an applied DC voltage.

Sager, Frank E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Broadband Achromatic Phase Shifter for a Nulling Interferometer

Nulling interferometry is a technique for imaging exoplanets in which light from the parent star is suppressed using destructive interference. Light from the star is divided into two beams and a phase shift of radians is introduced into one of the beams. When the beams are recombined, they destructively interfere to produce a deep null. For monochromatic light, this is implemented by introducing an optical path difference (OPD) between the two beams equal to lambda/2, where lambda is the wavelength of the light. For broadband light, however, a different phase shift will be introduced at each wavelength and the two beams will not effectively null when recombined. Various techniques have been devised to introduce an achromatic phase shift a phase shift that is uniform across a particular bandwidth. One popular technique is to use a series of dispersive elements to introduce a wavelength-dependent optical path in one or both of the arms of the interferometer. By intelligently choosing the number, material and thickness of a series of glass plates, a nearly uniform, arbitrary phase shift can be introduced between two arms of an interferometer. There are several constraints that make choosing the number, type, and thickness of materials a difficult problem, such as the size of the bandwidth to be nulled. Several solutions have been found for bandwidths on the order of 20 to 30 percent (Delta(lambda)/lambda(sub c)) in the mid-infrared region. However, uniform phase shifts over a larger bandwidth in the visible regime between 480 to 960 nm (67 percent) remain difficult to obtain at the tolerances necessary for exoplanet detection. A configuration of 10 dispersive glass plates was developed to be used as an achromatic phase shifter in nulling interferometry. Five glass plates were placed in each arm of the interferometer and an additional vacuum distance was also included in the second arm of the interferometer. This configuration creates a phase shift of pi radians with an average error of 5.97 x 10(exp -8) radians and standard deviation of 3.07 x 10(exp -4) radians. To reduce ghost reflections and interference effects from neighboring elements, the glass plates are tilted such that the beam does not strike each plate at normal incidence. Reflections will therefore walk out of the system and not contribute to the intensity when the beams are recombined. Tilting the glass plates, however, introduces several other problems that must be mitigated: (1) the polarization of a beam changes when refracted at an interface at non-normal incidence; (2) the beam experiences lateral chromatic spread as it traverses multiple glass plates; (3) at each surface, wavelength- dependent intensity losses will occur due to reflection. For a fixed angle of incidence, each of these effects must be balanced between each arm of the interferometer in order to ensure a deep null. The solution was found using a nonlinear optimization routine that minimized an objective function relating phase shift, intensity difference, chromatic beam spread, and polarization difference to the desired parameters: glass plate material and thickness. In addition to providing a uniform, broadband phase shift, the configuration achieves an average difference in intensity transmission between the two arms of the interferometer of 0.016 percent with a standard deviation of 3.64 x 10(exp -4) percent, an average difference in polarization between the two arms of the interferometer of 5.47 x 10(exp -5) percent with a standard deviation of 1.57 x 10(exp -6) percent, and an average chromatic beam shift between the two arms of the interferometer of -47.53 microns with a wavelength-by-wavelength spread of 0.389 microns.

Bolcar, Matthew R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Geomagnetic Secular Variation Prediction with Thermal Heterogeneous Boundary Conditions

It has long been conjectured that thermal heterogeneity at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) affects the geodynamo substantially. The observed two pairs of steady and strong magnetic flux lobes near the Polar Regions and the low secular variation in the Pacific over the past 400 years (and perhaps longer) are likely the consequences of this CMB thermal heterogeneity. There are several studies on the impact of the thermal heterogeneity with numerical geodynamo simulations. However, direct correlation between the numerical results and the observations is found very difficult, except qualitative comparisons of certain features in the radial component of the magnetic field at the CMB. This makes it difficult to assess accurately the impact of thermal heterogeneity on the geodynamo and the geomagnetic secular variation. We revisit this problem with our MoSST_DAS system in which geomagnetic data are assimilated with our geodynamo model to predict geomagnetic secular variations. In this study, we implement a heterogeneous heat flux across the CMB that is chosen based on the seismic tomography of the lowermost mantle. The amplitude of the heat flux (relative to the mean heat flux across the CMB) varies in the simulation. With these assimilation studies, we will examine the influences of the heterogeneity on the forecast accuracies, e.g. the accuracies as functions of the heterogeneity amplitude. With these, we could be able to assess the model errors to the true core state, and thus the thermal heterogeneity in geodynamo modeling.

Kuang, Weijia↗
NASA NTRS2012

On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

Riley, Pete↗
NASA NTRS2011

Metallization for Yb14MnSb11-Based Thermoelectric Materials

Thermoelectric materials provide a means for converting heat into electrical power using a fully solid-state device. Power-generating devices (which include individual couples as well as multicouple modules) require the use of ntype and p-type thermoelectric materials, typically comprising highly doped narrow band-gap semiconductors which are connected to a heat collector and electrodes. To achieve greater device efficiency and greater specific power will require using new thermoelectric materials, in more complex combinations. One such material is the p-type compound semiconductor Yb14MnSb11 (YMS), which has been demonstrated to have one of the highest ZT values at 1,000 C, the desired operational temperature of many space-based radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs). Despite the favorable attributes of the bulk YMS material, it must ultimately be incorporated into a power-generating device using a suitable joining technology. Typically, processes such as diffusion bonding and/or brazing are used to join thermoelectric materials to the heat collector and electrodes, with the goal of providing a stable, ohmic contact with high thermal conductivity at the required operating temperature. Since YMS is an inorganic compound featuring chemical bonds with a mixture of covalent and ionic character, simple metallurgical diffusion bonding is difficult to implement. Furthermore, the Sb within YMS readily reacts with most metals to form antimonide compounds with a wide range of stoichiometries. Although choosing metals that react to form high-melting-point antimonides could be employed to form a stable reaction bond, it is difficult to limit the reactivity of Sb in YMS such that the electrode is not completely consumed at an operating temperature of 1,000 C. Previous attempts to form suitable metallization layers resulted in poor bonding, complete consumption of the metallization layer or fracture within the YMS thermoelement (or leg).

Firdosy, Samad↗
NASA NTRS2012

Germanium Lift-Off Masks for Thin Metal Film Patterning

A technique has been developed for patterning thin metallic films that are, in turn, used to fabricate microelectronics circuitry and thin-film sensors. The technique uses germanium thin films as lift-off masks. This requires development of a technique to strip or undercut the germanium chemically without affecting the deposited metal. Unlike in the case of conventional polymeric lift-off masks, the substrate can be exposed to very high temperatures during processing (sputter deposition). The reason why polymeric liftoff masks cannot be exposed to very high temperatures (greater than 100 C) is because (a) they can become cross linked, making lift-off very difficult if not impossible, and (b) they can outgas nitrogen and oxygen, which then can react with the metal being deposited. Consequently, this innovation is expected to find use in the fabrication of transition edge sensors and microwave kinetic inductance detectors, which use thin superconducting films deposited at high temperature as their sensing elements. Transition edge sensors, microwave kinetic inductance detectors, and their circuitry are comprised of superconducting thin films, for example Nb and TiN. Reactive ion etching can be used to pattern these films; however, reactive ion etching also damages the underlying substrate, which is unwanted in many instances. Polymeric lift-off techniques permit thin-film patterning without any substrate damage, but they are difficult to remove and the polymer can outgas during thin-film deposition. The outgassed material can then react with the film with the consequence of altered and non-reproducible materials properties, which, in turn, is deleterious for sensors and their circuitry. The purpose of this innovation was to fabricate a germanium lift-off mask to be used for patterning thin metal films.

Brown, Ari↗
NASA NTRS2011

Enhanced Communication Network Solution for Positive Train Control Implementation

The commuter and freight railroad industry is required to implement Positive Train Control (PTC) by 2015 (2012 for Metrolink), a challenging network communications problem. This paper will discuss present technologies developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to overcome comparable communication challenges encountered in deep space mission operations. PTC will be based on a new cellular wireless packet Internet Protocol (IP) network. However, ensuring reliability in such a network is difficult due to the "dead zones" and transient disruptions we commonly experience when we lose calls in commercial cellular networks. These disruptions make it difficult to meet PTC s stringent reliability (99.999%) and safety requirements, deployment deadlines, and budget. This paper proposes innovative solutions based on space-proven technologies that would help meet these challenges: (1) Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) technology, designed for use in resource-constrained, embedded systems and currently in use on the International Space Station, enables reliable communication over networks in which timely data acknowledgments might not be possible due to transient link outages. (2) Policy-Based Management (PBM) provides dynamic management capabilities, allowing vital data to be exchanged selectively (with priority) by utilizing alternative communication resources. The resulting network may help railroads implement PTC faster, cheaper, and more reliably.

Policy-Based Management (PBM)↗
NASA NTRS2012

High-Performance Modeling and Simulation of Anchoring in Granular Media for NEO Applications

NASA is interested in designing a spacecraft capable of visiting a near-Earth object (NEO), performing experiments, and then returning safely. Certain periods of this mission would require the spacecraft to remain stationary relative to the NEO, in an environment characterized by very low gravity levels; such situations require an anchoring mechanism that is compact, easy to deploy, and upon mission completion, easy to remove. The design philosophy used in this task relies on the simulation capability of a high-performance multibody dynamics physics engine. On Earth, it is difficult to create low-gravity conditions, and testing in low-gravity environments, whether artificial or in space, can be costly and very difficult to achieve. Through simulation, the effect of gravity can be controlled with great accuracy, making it ideally suited to analyze the problem at hand. Using Chrono::Engine, a simulation pack age capable of utilizing massively parallel Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) hardware, several validation experiments were performed. Modeling of the regolith interaction has been carried out, after which the anchor penetration tests were performed and analyzed. The regolith was modeled by a granular medium composed of very large numbers of convex three-dimensional rigid bodies, subject to microgravity levels and interacting with each other with contact, friction, and cohesional forces. The multibody dynamics simulation approach used for simulating anchors penetrating a soil uses a differential variational inequality (DVI) methodology to solve the contact problem posed as a linear complementarity method (LCP). Implemented within a GPU processing environment, collision detection is greatly accelerated compared to traditional CPU (central processing unit)- based collision detection. Hence, systems of millions of particles interacting with complex dynamic systems can be efficiently analyzed, and design recommendations can be made in a much shorter time. The figure shows an example of this capability where the Brazil Nut problem is simulated: as the container full of granular material is vibrated, the large ball slowly moves upwards. This capability was expanded to account for anchors of different shapes and penetration velocities, interacting with granular soils.

Quadrelli, Marco B.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Multidisciplinary Approach to Mixer-Ejector Analysis and Design

The design of an engine for a civil supersonic aircraft presents a difficult multidisciplinary problem to propulsion system engineers. There are numerous competing requirements for the engine, such as to be efficient during cruise while yet quiet enough at takeoff to meet airport noise regulations. The use of mixer-ejector nozzles presents one possible solution to this challenge. However, designing a mixer-ejector which will successfully address both of these concerns is a difficult proposition. Presented in this paper is an integrated multidisciplinary approach to the analysis and design of these systems. A process that uses several low-fidelity tools to evaluate both the performance and acoustics of mixer-ejectors nozzles is described. This process is further expanded to include system-level modeling of engines and aircraft to determine the effects on mission performance and noise near airports. The overall process is developed in the OpenMDAO framework currently being developed by NASA. From the developed process, sample results are given for a notional mixer-ejector design, thereby demonstrating the capabilities of the method.

Hendricks, Eric, S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Regional Climate and Variability of the Summertime Continental United States in Reanalyses

Understanding climate variability at regional scales is an important for research and societal needs. Atmospheric retrospective-analyses (or reanalyses) integrate multitudes of observing systems with numerical models to produce continuous data that include variables not easily observed, if at all. The breadth of variables as well as observational influence included in reanalyses make them ideal for investigating climate variability. In this paper, we assess NASA s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) regional variability in North America, specifically the United States, in conjunction with current satellite data reanalyses. Emphasis is placed on summertime precipitation because 1) it is a difficult parameter to capture in the most difficult season, 2) significant observational resources exist to benchmark comparisons, and 3) accurate assessment of precipitation variability is crucial to a multitude of sectors and applications. Likewise, we have also begun to evaluate surface air temperature. While precipitation biases are identified, year to year variability of the precipitation variations, in many cases, are quite reasonable. However, some spurious long term trends and sudden shifts in the time series are also identified. In surface air temperature, analysis of station observations provides ERA Interim a clear overall advantage. However, in a number of regions, all the reanalyses are quite comparable in variability and trend. In other regions, significant precipitation biases may occur, which has implications for the ancillary process data in a reanalysis, such as surface fluxes. We also characterize the reanalyses ability to capture variability related to ENSO. In general, the summertime variations of precipitation in the reanalyses are more highly correlated (positively) to ENSO (using ENSO34) than are the observations. The Northwestern US shows the largest positive correlations to ENSO34, and reanalyses agree with that, and correlate highly with the gauge observations there. Additional evaluation of the data assimilation using the MERRA Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) data, which consists of the assimilated observations as well as forecast an analysis error fields. This work represents an initial evaluation of using the MERRA reanalysis to study regional climate variations of the United States, and identifying its applied limitations

Bosilovich, M G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of Fine-Mode Aerosol Retrieval Capabilities by Different Passive Remote Sensing Instrument Designs

Remote sensing of aerosol optical properties is difficult, but multi-angle, multi-spectral, polarimetric instruments have the potential to retrieve sufficient information about aerosols that they can be used to improve global climate models. However, the complexity of these instruments means that it is difficult to intuitively understand the relationship between instrument design and retrieval success. We apply a Bayesian statistical technique that relates instrument characteristics to the information contained in an observation. Using realistic simulations of fine size mode dominated spherical aerosols, we investigate three instrument designs. Two of these represent instruments currently in orbit: the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and the POLarization and Directionality of the Earths Reflectances (POLDER). The third is the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS), which failed to reach orbit during recent launch, but represents a viable design for future instruments. The results show fundamental differences between the three, and offer suggestions for future instrument design and the optimal retrieval strategy for current instruments. Generally, our results agree with previous validation efforts of POLDER and airborne prototypes of APS, but show that the MISR aerosol optical thickness uncertainty characterization is possibly underestimated.

Knobelspiesse, Kirk↗
NASA NTRS2012

Space-based Observational Constraints for 1-D Plume Rise Models

We use a space-based plume height climatology derived from observations made by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument aboard the NASA Terra satellite to evaluate the ability of a plume-rise model currently embedded in several atmospheric chemical transport models (CTMs) to produce accurate smoke injection heights. We initialize the plume-rise model with assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System and estimated fuel moisture content at the location and time of the MISR measurements. Fire properties that drive the plume-rise model are difficult to estimate and we test the model with four estimates for active fire area and four for total heat flux, obtained using empirical data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) re radiative power (FRP) thermal anomalies available for each MISR plume. We show that the model is not able to reproduce the plume heights observed by MISR over the range of conditions studied (maximum r2 obtained in all configurations is 0.3). The model also fails to determine which plumes are in the free troposphere (according to MISR), key information needed for atmospheric models to simulate properly smoke dispersion. We conclude that embedding a plume-rise model using currently available re constraints in large-scale atmospheric studies remains a difficult proposition. However, we demonstrate the degree to which the fire dynamical heat flux (related to active fire area and sensible heat flux), and atmospheric stability structure influence plume rise, although other factors less well constrained (e.g., entrainment) may also be significant. Using atmospheric stability conditions, MODIS FRP, and MISR plume heights, we offer some constraints on the main physical factors that drive smoke plume rise. We find that smoke plumes reaching high altitudes are characterized by higher FRP and weaker atmospheric stability conditions than those at low altitude, which tend to remain confined below the BL, consistent with earlier results. We propose two simplified parameterizations for computing injection heights for fires in CTMs and discuss current challenges to representing plume injection heights in large scale atmospheric models.

Martin, Maria Val↗
NASA NTRS2012

Exploring the Longwave Radiative Effects of Dust Aerosols

Dust aerosols not only affect air quality and visibility where they pose a significant health and safety risk, but they can also play a role in modulating the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system by directly interacting with local radiative fields. Consequently, dust aerosols can impact regional climate patterns such as changes in precipitation and the evolution of the hydrological cycle. Assessing the direct effect of dust aerosols at the solar wavelengths is fairly straightforward due in part to the relatively large signal-to-noise ratio in broadband irradiance measurements. The longwave (LW) impacts, on the other hand, are rather difficult to ascertain since the measured dust signal level (10 Wm-2) is on the same order as the instrumental uncertainties. Moreover, compared to the shortwave (SW), limited experimental data on the LW optical properties of dust makes it a difficult challenge for constraining the LW impacts. Owing to the strong absorption features found in many terrestrial minerals (e.g., silicates and clays), the LW effects, although much smaller in magnitude compared to the SW, can still have a sizeable impact on the energetics of the Earth-atmosphere system, which can potentially trigger changes in the heat and moisture surface budgets, and dynamics of the atmosphere. The current endeavor is an integral part of an on-going research study to perform detailed assessments of dust direct aerosol radiative effects (DARE) using comprehensive global datasets from NASA Goddards mobile ground-based facility (cf. http://smartlabs.gsfc.nasa.gov/) during previous field experiments near key dust source regions. Here we examine and compare the results from two of these studies: the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities and the 2008 Asian Monsoon Years. The former study focused on transported Saharan dust at Sal Island (16.73N, 22.93W), Cape Verde along the west coast of Africa while the latter focused on Asian dust at Zhangye China (39.082N, 100.276E), a semi-arid region between the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts. NASA Goddards Giovanni system is used to help map out the spatial distribution of retrieved aerosol optical depths across the latter desert regions. 1-D radiative transfer model constrained by local measurements, including spectral photometry/interferometry and lidar for characterizing the spatiotemporal variability in dust properties and atmospheric conditions, is employed to evaluate the local instantaneous LW DARE of dust both at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere along with heating rate profiles for cloud-free atmospheres. The efficiency in LW DARE and its significance relative to the diurnally averaged SW effects are explored and compared in both studies. Found to be non-negligible, LW DARE is an important component in the study of regional climate variation with important implications for more detailed global assessments.

Hansell, Richard A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

Cognitive bias↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Wind-powered Rover for a Low-Cost Venus Mission

Venus, with a surface temperature of 450 C and an atmospheric pressure 90 times higher than that of the Earth, is a difficult target for exploration. However, high-temperature electronics and power systems now being developed make it possible that future missions may be able to operate in the Venus environment. Powering such a rover within the scope of a Discovery class mission will be difficult, but harnessing Venus' surface winds provides a possible way to keep a powered rover small and light. This project scopes out the feasibility of a wind-powered rover for Venus surface missions. Two rover concepts, a land-sailing rover and a wind-turbine-powered rover, were considered. The turbine-powered rover design is selected as being a low-risk and low-cost strategy. Turbine detailed analysis and design shows that the turbine can meet mission requirements across the desired range of wind speeds by utilizing three constant voltage generators at fixed gear ratios.

Benigno, Gina↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Cosmic Shoreline

Volatile escape is the classic existential problem of planetary atmospheres. The problem has gained new currency now that we can study the cumulative effects of escape from extrasolar planets. Escape itself is likely to be a rapid process, relatively unlikely to be caught in the act, but the cumulative effects of escape in particular, the distinction between planets with and without atmospheres should show up in the statistics of the new planets. The new planets make a moving target. It can be difficult to keep up, and every day the paper boy brings more. Of course most of these will be giant planets loosely resembling Saturn or Neptune albeit hotter and nearer their stars, as big hot fast-orbiting exoplanets are the least exceedingly difficult to discover. But they are still planets, all in all, and although twenty years ago experts could prove on general principles that they did not exist, we have come round rather quickly, and they should be welcome now at LPSC. Here we will discuss the empirical division between planets with and without atmospheres. For most exoplanets the question of whether a planet has or has not an atmosphere is a fuzzy inference based on the planet's bulk density. A probably safe presumption is that a low density planet is one with abundant volatiles, in the general mold of Saturn or Neptune. On the other hand a high density low mass planet could be volatile-poor, in the general mold of Earth or Mercury. We will focus on planets, mostly seen in transit, for which both radius and mass are measured, as these are the planets with measured densities. More could be said: a lot of subtle recent work has been devoted to determining the composition of planets from equations of state or directly observing atmospheres in transit, but we will not go there. What interests us here is that, from the first, the transiting extrasolar planets appear to have fit into a pattern already seen in our own Solar System, as shown in Fig. 1. We first noticed this in 2004 when there were just two transiting exoplanets to consider. The trend was well-defined by late 2007. Figure 1 shows how matters stood in Dec 2012 with approx.240 exoplanets. The figure shows that the boundary between planets with and without active volatiles - the cosmic shoreline, as it were - is both well-defined and follows a power law.

Zahnle, Kevin J.↗