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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Scaling and merging time-resolved pink-beam diffraction with variational inference

Time-resolved x-ray crystallography (TR-X) at synchrotrons and free electron lasers is a promising technique for recording dynamics of molecules at atomic resolution. While experimental methods for TR-X have proliferated and matured, data analysis is often difficult. Extracting small, time-dependent changes in signal is frequently a bottleneck for practitioners. Recent work demonstrated this challenge can be addressed when merging redundant observations by a statistical technique known as variational inference (VI). However, the variational approach to time-resolved data analysis requires identification of successful hyperparameters in order to optimally extract signal. In this case study, we present a successful application of VI to time-resolved changes in an enzyme, DJ-1, upon mixing with a substrate molecule, methylglyoxal. We present a strategy to extract high signal-to-noise changes in electron density from these data. Furthermore, we conduct an ablation study, in which we systematically remove one hyperparameter at a time to demonstrate the impact of each hyperparameter choice on the success of our model. We expect this case study will serve as a practical example for how others may deploy VI in order to analyze their time-resolved diffraction data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detailed space–time variations of the seismic response of the shallow crust to small earthquakes from analysis of dense array data

SUMMARY We compute high-resolution space–time variations of subsurface seismic properties from autocorrelation functions (ACF’s) of noise and local earthquakes, recorded by the Sage Brush Flat dense array deployed around the Clark branch of the San Jacinto fault. The resolved temporal changes are referred to as apparent velocity changes because they reflect both nonlinear response and variations of material properties such as cracking and damage. Apparent velocity changes are estimated at four frequency bands (10–15, 10–20, 15–30 and 20–40 Hz) for two local earthquake data sets. In one analysis, ACF’s from P- and S-wave windows of 31 small events with magnitudes below 3.1 are used to compute the apparent velocity variations with respect to the mean ACF of each phase, and we also use the mean ACF of noise data as reference to estimate the changes. In a further analysis, the temporal evolution of properties is computed using moving time windows in continuous waveform over one-hour long data with noise and earthquake signals. The apparent velocity changes and recovery times are frequency dependent and present a strong spatial variability across the array. The resolved changes are larger and recovery time shorter with data associated with higher frequencies. At frequencies larger than 15 Hz, and using the mean ACF of noise data as a reference, the apparent average velocity changes across the array during the passage of the P and S waves from the small local events are 2.5 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. The apparent velocity changes decrease by one order of magnitude when the earthquake data are used as a reference. The relatively large changes in response to very low ground motion have important implications on nonlinear processes involving degradation and healing of the subsurface material during common earthquake shaking.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Sensitivity of PBX 9502 to Drilling Operations

Polymer-bonded explosive (PBX) 9502 (95% TATB, 5% Kel-F 800 by weight) is dry-drilled on a CNC milling machine and its thermomechanical response to varying feed rates, drilling speeds, and peck depths with 4 mm and 5 mm diameter drill bits is investigated. The tested samples are affixed to a force sensor that enables recording temporally resolved cutting forces and torques, and a drill-embedded thermocouple yields local temperature data. From the data, an empirical relationship between temperature changes and feed per revolution is developed, which reveals reduced temperatures in higher feed per revolution regimes for PBX 9502. The observed relationship allows extrapolating to temperatures for other hole diameters, indicating increased temperature for smaller diameter drilling across the board. Additional testing was performed with PBX 9501 (95% HMX, 2.5% Estane®, 2.5% BDNPA/BDNPF by weight), albeit over a reduced parameter space, which revealed the opposite behavior for the feed per revolution temperature dependence. It is concluded that both PBX 9502 and PBX 9501 can be dry-drilled efficiently beyond the limits of presently applicable US-DOE standards, where cutting interface temperatures remain far below material critical temperatures. Finally, data reveals that coolant usage in the drilling process for these materials provides a wide safety margin.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-Resolution XFEL Structure of the Soluble Methane Monooxygenase Hydroxylase Complex with its Regulatory Component at Ambient Temperature in Two Oxidation States

Soluble methane monooxygenase (sMMO) is a multicomponent metalloenzyme that catalyzes the conversion of methane to methanol at ambient temperature using a nonheme, oxygen-bridged dinuclear iron cluster in the active site. Structural changes in the hydroxylase component (sMMOH) containing the diiron cluster caused by complex formation with a regulatory component (MMOB) and by iron reduction are important for the regulation of O 2 activation and substrate hydroxylation. Structural studies of metalloenzymes using traditional synchrotron-based X-ray crystallography are often complicated by partial X-ray-induced photoreduction of the metal center, thereby obviating determination of the structure of the enzyme in pure oxidation states. Here, microcrystals of the sMMOH:MMOB complex from Methylosinus trichosporium OB3b were serially exposed to X-ray free electron laser (XFEL) pulses, where the ≤35 fs duration of exposure of an individual crystal yields diffraction data before photoreduction-induced structural changes can manifest. Merging diffraction patterns obtained from thousands of crystals generates radiation damage-free, 1.95 Å resolution crystal structures for the fully oxidized and fully reduced states of the sMMOH:MMOB complex for the first time. The results provide new insight into the manner by which the diiron cluster and the active site environment are reorganized by the regulatory protein component in order to enhance the steps of oxygen activation and methane oxidation. Furthermore, this study also emphasizes the value of XFEL and serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) methods for investigating the structures of metalloenzymes with radiation sensitive metal active sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

TomocuPy – efficient GPU-based tomographic reconstruction with asynchronous data processing

Fast 3D data analysis and steering of a tomographic experiment by changing environmental conditions or acquisition parameters require fast, close to real-time, 3D reconstruction of large data volumes. Here a performance-optimized TomocuPy package is presented as a GPU alternative to the commonly used central processing unit (CPU) based TomoPy package for tomographic reconstruction. TomocuPy utilizes modern hardware capabilities to organize a 3D asynchronous reconstruction involving parallel read/write operations with storage drives, CPU–GPU data transfers, and GPU computations. In the asynchronous reconstruction, all the operations are timely overlapped to almost fully hide all data management time. Since most cameras work with less than 16-bit digital output, the memory usage and processing speed are furthermore optimized by using 16-bit floating-point arithmetic. As a result, 3D reconstruction with TomocuPy became 20–30 times faster than its multi-threaded CPU equivalent. Full reconstruction (including read/write operations and methods initialization) of a 2048 3 tomographic volume takes less than 7 s on a single Nvidia Tesla A100 and PCIe 4.0 NVMe SSD, and scales almost linearly increasing the data size. To simplify operation at synchrotron beamlines, TomocuPy provides an easy-to-use command-line interface. Efficacy of the package was demonstrated during a tomographic experiment on gas-hydrate formation in porous samples, where a steering option was implemented as a lens-changing mechanism for zooming to regions of interest.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Hanford High-Fluoride Waste Glass Property Data Development: Phase 1

This study focused on investigating the effects of fluorine concentration on simulated high-level waste glass properties to eventually establish a fluorine limit (as a single-component or multiple-component constraint) for glass formulations for high-fluoride Hanford wastes. This is a first step to provide data to understand the impacts of changing flowsheets on the mission duration and extent. A test matrix of 20 high-fluoride glasses was generated, and the chemical compositions were measured. The following properties were measured and tested against current model predictions: crystal formation after centerline canister cooling, crystallinity as a function of temperature, density, viscosity, electrical conductivity, toxic leaching characteristics using the toxicity characteristic leach profile (TCLP), product consistency using the product consistency test (PCT), and SO 3 solubility. Overall, current models failed to adequately predict most of the properties, possibly due to differences in compositional space used to generate the models and the current test matrix. Additional work is needed to more accurately assess the impacts of high-fluoride wastes on Hanford processing, including additional data collection over a broader composition region and model development for the key models of interest such as PCT and TCLP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

NEON AOP Survey of Upper East River CO Watersheds: LAZ Files, LiDAR Surface Elevation, Terrain Elevation, and Canopy Height Rasters

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) contracted the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP) to observe watersheds of interest surrounding Crested Butte, CO with remotely sensed data, including LiDAR. The flight box design encompassed the watersheds, surveying a total area of 334 km2 across 72 lines. The instrument used was an Optech Gemini, with a pulse density of 2-9 pulses m-2 across the study area (see final report document for detailed information (Goulden and Musinsky 2020). These LiDAR data are the primary data that were provided by NEON, and include both LiDAR source data and derived surface products. The source data are contained in 'crbu_laz.zip' and 'classified_point_cloud.zip. 'classified_point_cloud.zip' represents an additional processing level on 'crbu_laz.zip'. The derived products are 'dsm_mosaic_min_phase_me.tif', 'dtm_mosaic_min_phase_me.tif', and 'tch_mosaic_min_phase_me.tif'. These files are raster mosaics of a digital surface elevation model (DSM), digital terrain elevation model (DTM), and a canopy height model (CHM) at 1 m resolution with a height threshold of > 2 m, respectively, in geotiff (.tif) format. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. [UPDATE] On 06/26/2026 the files 'crbu_laz.zip' and 'classified_point_cloud.zip' were replaced with original output files from NEON to address zip file corruption and naming errors. No changes were made to the underlying data. (See Methods Step 2 for details).

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
DOE OSTI2020

Shallow cumuli cover and its uncertainties from ground-based lidar–radar data and sky images

Cloud cover estimates of single-layer shallow cumuli obtained from narrow field-of-view (FOV) lidar–radar and wide-FOV total sky imager (TSI) data are compared over an extended period (2000–2017 summers) at the established United States Atmospheric Radiation Measurement mid-continental Southern Great Plains site. We quantify the impacts of two factors on hourly and sub-hourly cloud cover estimates: (1) instrument-dependent cloud detection and data merging criteria and (2) FOV configuration. Enhanced observations at this site combine the advantages of the ceilometer, micropulse lidar (MPL) and cloud radar in merged data products. Data collected by these three instruments are used to calculate narrow-FOV cloud fraction (CF) as a temporal fraction of cloudy returns within a given period. Sky images provided by TSI are used to calculate the wide-FOV fractional sky cover (FSC) as a fraction of cloudy pixels within a given image. To assess the impact of the first factor on CF obtained from the merged data products, we consider two additional subperiods (2000–2010 and 2011–2017 summers) that mark significant instrumentation and algorithmic advances in the cloud detection and data merging. We demonstrate that CF obtained from ceilometer data alone and FSC obtained from sky images provide the most similar and consistent cloud cover estimates; hourly bias and root-mean-square difference (RMSD) are within 0.04 and 0.12, respectively. However, CF from merged MPL–ceilometer data provides the largest estimates of the multiyear mean cloud cover, about 0.12 (35 %) and 0.08 (24 %) greater than FSC for the first and second subperiods, respectively. CF from merged ceilometer–MPL–radar data has the strongest subperiod dependence with a bias of 0.08 (24 %) compared to FSC for the first subperiod and shows no bias for the second subperiod. The strong period dependence of CF obtained from the combined ceilometer–MPL–radar data is likely results from a change in what sensors are relied on to detect clouds below 3 km. After 2011, the MPL stopped being used for cloud top height detection below 3 km, leaving the radar as the only sensor used in cloud top height retrievals. To quantify the FOV impact, a narrow-FOV FSC is derived from the TSI images. We demonstrate that FOV configuration does not modify the bias but impacts the RMSD (0.1 hourly, 0.15 sub-hourly). In particular, the FOV impact is significant for sub-hourly observations, where 41 % of narrow- and wide-FOV FSC differ by more than 0.1. A new “quick-look” tool is introduced to visualize impacts of these two factors through integration of CF and FSC data with novel TSI-based images of the spatial variability in cloud cover. The influence of cloud field organization, such cloud streets parallel to the wind direction, on narrow- and wide-FOV cloud cover estimates can be visually assessed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Bond Dissociations of Reactive Machine Learning Potentials through Physics-Constrained Data Augmentation

In the field of computational chemistry, predicting bond dissociation energies (BDEs) presents well-known challenges, particularly due to the multireference character of reactive systems. Many chemical reactions involve configurations where single-reference methods fall short, as the electronic structure can significantly change during bond breaking. As generating training data for partially broken bonds is a challenging task, even state-of-the-art reactive machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) often fail to predict reliable BDEs and smooth dissociation curves. By contrast, simple and inexpensive physics-based models, such as the well-established Morse potential, do not suffer from any such limitations. This work leverages the Morse potential to improve reactive MLIPs by augmenting the training data set with inexpensive Morse data along the dissociation pathways. Further, this physics-constrained data augmentation (PCDA) approach results in MLIPs with smooth bond dissociation curves as well as near coupled-cluster level BDEs, all without requiring any expensive multireference quantum mechanical calculations. A case study for methane combustion demonstrates how the PCDA approach can improve an existing reactive MLIP, namely, ANI-1xnr. In conclusion, not only are the BDEs and bond dissociation curves for all radicals and molecules significantly improved compared to ANI-1xnr but the PCDA-trained MLIP retains the reliability of ANI-1xnr when performing reactive molecular dynamics simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Hydromechanical Modeling and Assessment of Induced Seismicity at FWU: Utilizing Time-Lapse VSP and Microseismic Data

The objective of this work is to utilize integrated geomechanics, field vertical seismic profile (VSP) and microseismic data to characterize the complex subsurface stress conditions at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). The model is based on a five-spot sector model extracted from a primary geomechanical model. The five-spot well injection pattern is characterized by extensive reservoir characterization data, such well logs, extracted cores and borehole geophone data, to facilitate the detailed examination of stress changes and microseismic event occurrences. The study utilizes field vertical seismic volumes acquired from the injection well 13-10A. The seismic volumes successfully provided snapshots of the behavior of the reservoir at distinct times. The use of VSP and microseismic data provided direct and indirect estimates of the dynamic stress changes occurring in the overburden, reservoir and underburden rock formations. In order to illuminate the stress regions and identify rocks that have undergone inelastic failure, microseismic event occurrences were utilized. Microseismic activity has been detected at the FWU; further study of its locations, timing, and magnitude was needed to deduce the nature of the changing stress state. The results of the study revealed that microseismic events were successfully modeled within the Morrow B formation. Moment magnitudes of seismic events were within the same magnitudes for events in the reservoir, suggesting the suitability of the model. The results of the study showed that the computed moment magnitudes for seismic events were insignificant to warrant safety concerns. The study findings showed the usefulness of coupled hydromechanical models in predicting the subsurface stress changes associated with CO 2 injection. The knowledge gained from this study will serve as a guideline for industries planning to undertake underground CO 2 storage, and characterize the subsurface stress changes.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robustness of energy performance of Zero-Net-Energy (ZNE) homes

Zero-net-energy (ZNE) homes produce an adequate amount of energy on-site to meet their energy demand based on source energy for an entire year. California building energy efficiency standards require new residential buildings started in 2020 to be ZNE. For various reasons, a home designed as ZNE may not achieve ZNE performance in real operation. Here we aimed to quantify the robustness of the energy performance of ZNE homes due to weather variability, climate change, and the uncertainty of occupant behavior. A single-family ZNE house, based on the optimal cost-effective design in three California climate zones, was used to develop the EnergyPlus simulation models. Weather variations were considered from a combination of the historical 30 years’ actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, typical year weather data in TMY3, and future weather data based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. Three scenarios of occupant behavior from the energy perspective were defined to represent the uncertainty about occupants’ activities, comfort requirements, and their adaptive interactions with buildings and systems. In terms of annual source energy, the simulation results of the ZNE homes showed: (1) a decrease of 23–38 percent for occupants with energy austerity behavior and an increase of 120–130 percent for occupants with energy wasteful behavior, compared with the baseline assumption of normal occupants; (2) a variation range of –15 percent to +14 percent for the results using 30-year AMY weather data compared with the baseline results using TMY3 weather data; (3) an increase of 10–13 percent with future weather in Fresno and Riverside and a decrease of 15 percent with San Francisco; and (4) climate change can reduce the gap between the austerity and wasteful consumption. These findings provide insights into how ZNE homes may perform in reality and inform architects, engineers, occupants, and policymakers to pay more attention to occupant behavior on design, operation, and regulations of ZNE homes to ensure energy performance robustness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variability of Water Vapor in the Tropical Middle Atmosphere Observed From Satellites and Interpreted Using SD-WACCM Simulations

Water vapor in the middle atmosphere plays an essential role in global warming, ozone depletion, and the formation of polar stratospheric and mesospheric clouds. We show that tropical middle atmospheric water vapor simulated with the specified-dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) is consistent with changes observed in a merged satellite data set, which encompasses the period 1993–2020. Consistent with previous work, we find no significant trend in the stratosphere in either the observations or the simulation; in the mesosphere, we find a long-term trend of 0.1 ppmv per decade, but only in the observations. We also analyze an SD-WACCM simulation for the longer period 1980–2019 to quantify the contribution of various factors to the decadal variation of middle atmospheric water vapor. Over 1980–1995, the simulated water vapor in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, averaged zonally and over ±30° latitude, increases by 0.30 ppmv per decade due to increasing methane emissions. After 1995, a significant abrupt decrease of water vapor of 0.37 ppmv per decade and then a gradual increase of 0.33 ppmv per decade result from changes in stratospheric cold point temperature. The cold-point temperature is strongly influenced by the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation before about 2003 leads to a cooler tropical tropopause and a decrease of water vapor, and the deceleration thereafter leads to corresponding warming of the tropopause and an increase in water vapor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-throughput, dynamic, multi-dimensional: an expanding repertoire of plant respiration measurements

A recent burst of technological innovation and adaptation has greatly improved our ability to capture respiration rate data from plant sources. At the tissue level, several independent respiration measurement options are now available, each with distinct advantages and suitability, including high-throughput sampling capacity. These advancements facilitate the inclusion of respiration rate data into large-scale biological studies such as genetic screens, ecological surveys, crop breeding trials, and multi-omics molecular studies. As a result, our understanding of the correlations of respiration with other biological and biochemical measurements is rapidly increasing. Difficult questions persist concerning the interpretation and utilization of respiration data; concepts such as allocation of respiration to growth versus maintenance, the unnecessary or inefficient use of carbon and energy by respiration, and predictions of future respiration rates in response to environmental change are all insufficiently grounded in empirical data. However, we emphasize that new experimental designs involving novel combinations of respiration rate data with other measurements will flesh-out our current theories of respiration. Furthermore, dynamic recordings of respiration rate, which have long been used at the scale of mitochondria, are increasingly being used at larger scales of size and time to reflect processes of cellular signal transduction and physiological response to the environment. Herein, we also highlight how respiratory methods are being better adapted to different plant tissues including roots and seeds, which have been somewhat neglected historically.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Study on Surface Texture and Wettability of Femtosecond Laser Treated Aluminum Alloys

This research aims to study the effects of femtosecond laser treatment on surface texture and wettability properties. The first portion of this research studies 2024-T3 aluminum alloy concerning surface texture (e.g., roughness), wettability, and surface free energy. SEM images help aid the researchers in detecting minuscule changes in surface texture. Profilometry extracts topographical data from the surface. A contact angle goniometer measures contact angle, which follows the sessile drop method. Owens, Wendt, Rabel, and Kaelble's method calculates the surface free energy in conjunction with the contact angle. Femtosecond laser modification produces relatively uniform surface morphology at the macroscale. When looking at the microscale, surface morphology differs depending on the interplay between material melting and self-assembly, where the surface becomes rougher after laser treatment. Contact angle results show that all but the control sample and sample 7 exhibit hydrophobic behavior, i.e., contact angle >90°, with Sample 1 having the most significant angle of 115°. The effects of laser parameters on surface energy is apparent. More work is needed to establish correlations among these three quantities: contact angle, surface energy, and laser parameters. The second portion of this research studies aluminum alloy 6061 as the subject material with the primary goal of creating a superhydrophobic surface. A central composite design creates the laser surface texturing design of experiments. SEM images help aid the researchers in detecting minuscule changes in surface texture. A 3D optical profiler extracts topographical data from the surface. The sessile drop method incorporates a contact angle goniometer to measure the contact angle. The response surface method builds a second-order polynomial model for the contact angle and obtains optimized parameters to maximize the contact angle. This research shows that laser surface texturing can generate a wide range of surface profiles and roughness values with geometric features ranging from hundreds of μm to submicron. All three laser parameters (pulse energy, pulse duration, repetition rate) affect surface roughness and contact angle to some degree. To quantify the relationship between the contact angle, pulse energy, and pulse repetition rate, a response surface model for Al 6061 is identified and used to find the optimal conditions of E=214 μJ, tp=10 ps, and fp=2427 Hz with a predicted maximum contact angle of 161°. A confirmation experiment produces a contact angle of 168°, in good agreement with the predicted value.

Angell, Dakota↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Graph Convolutional Network for Active Distribution System Anomaly Detection Considering Measurement Spatial-Temporal Correlations

The accuracy of distribution system state estimation may be significantly impacted by the existence of bad measure-ments and unexpected topology errors. This paper proposes a data-driven Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) for anomaly detection, including bad measurements and topology change events. Compared to many existing machine learning approaches, the proposed approach embeds both spatial-temporal measure-ment correlations, which allows us to detect and distinguish different anomalies. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 37-node system demonstrate that the proposed-based method can obtain high accuracy in detecting bad data and topology changes as compared to other approaches, even in the presence of high PV penetrations.

active distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High–Resolution Global Warming Experiment

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth’s hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation important for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to climate change is tied to how the feature is defined. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) to a common data set consisting of high resolution climate change simulations from a global atmospheric general circulation model. ARDTs mostly show increases in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response is largely dependent on algorithmic criteria. Across ARDTs, bulk characteristics suggest intensity and spatial footprint are inversely correlated, and most focus regions experience increases in precipitation volume coming from extreme ARs. The spread of the AR precipitation response under climate change is large and dependent on ARDT selection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Atmospheric Inverse Modelling of Methane Budgets with Copernicus Land Water and Wetness Data to Detect Land Use-Related Emissions

Climate change mitigation requires countries to report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks, including those from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). In Finland, the LULUCF sector plays a crucial role in achieving net-zero GHG emissions, as the sector is expected to be a net sink. However, accurate estimates of LULUCF-related GHG emissions, such as methane (CH 4 ), remain challenging. We estimated LULUCF-related CH 4 emissions in Finland in 2013–2020 by combining national land cover and remote-sensed surface wetness data with CH 4 emissions estimated by an inversion model. According to our inversion model, most of Finland’s CH 4 emissions were attributed to natural sources such as open pristine peatlands. However, our research indicated that forests with thin tree cover surrounding open peatlands may also be a significant source of CH 4 . Unlike open pristine peatlands and pristine peatlands with thin tree cover, surrounding transient forests are included in the Finnish GHG inventory if they meet the criteria used for forest land. The current Finnish national GHG inventory may therefore underestimate CH 4 emissions from forested organic soils surrounding open peatlands, although more precise methods and data are needed to verify this. Given the potential impact on net GHG emissions, CH 4 emissions from transitional forests on organic soils should be further investigated. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential of combining atmospheric inversion modelling of GHGs with diverse data sources and highlight the need for methods to more easily combine atmospheric inversions with national GHG inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗