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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reduction of Aircraft Noise Uncertainty for a Notional Supersonic Business Jet

NASA supported a study by the International Civil Aviation Organization on the environmental impact of adding supersonic aircraft to the existing global fleet by designing a notional 55-tonne supersonic business jet. The aircraft is referred to as the Supersonic Technology Concept Aeroplane (STCA) and has been used in a multitude of studies over the past few years. One of the many studies on this aircraft was the noise produced by the STCA during landing and take-off (LTO) operations. The LTO noise for the STCA was assessed using contemporary noise prediction tools that have been primarily developed for and utilized by subsonic aircraft, resulting in a high level of uncertainty for the STCA noise predictions. NASA has recently been conducting research and developing tools to reduce the uncertainty for airport noise predictions of supersonic aircraft. The initial focus of the uncertainty reduction was on the jet and inlet-radiated fan noise produced by supersonic engine systems since these sources are dominant during take-off and landing operations for supersonic jets. The results of these efforts are discussed and applied to the STCA model to update the airport noise predictions and associated uncertainty metrics. It is shown that by using new noise source prediction models, the overall system-level cumulative noise uncertainty of the study vehicle is reduced from a standard deviation of 7.8 EPNdB to 2.0 EPNdB.

uncertainty↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hotter droughts alter resource allocation to chemical defenses in piñon pine

Abstract Heat and drought affect plant chemical defenses and thereby plant susceptibility to pests and pathogens. Monoterpenes are of particular importance for conifers as they play critical roles in defense against bark beetles. To date, work seeking to understand the impacts of heat and drought on monoterpenes has primarily focused on young potted seedlings, leaving it unclear how older age classes that are more vulnerable to bark beetles might respond to stress. Furthermore, we lack a clear picture of what carbon resources might be prioritized to support monoterpene synthesis under drought stress. To address this, we measured needle and woody tissue monoterpene concentrations and physiological variables simultaneously from mature piñon pines ( Pinus edulis ) from a unique temperature and drought manipulation field experiment. While heat had no effect on total monoterpene concentrations, trees under combined heat and drought stress exhibited ~ 85% and 35% increases in needle and woody tissue, respectively, over multiple years. Plant physiological variables like maximum photosynthesis each explained less than 10% of the variation in total monoterpenes for both tissue types while starch and glucose + fructose measured 1-month prior explained ~ 45% and 60% of the variation in woody tissue total monoterpene concentrations. Although total monoterpenes increased under combined stress, some key monoterpenes with known roles in bark beetle ecology decreased. These shifts may make trees more favorable for bark beetle attack rather than well defended, which one might conclude if only considering total monoterpene concentrations. Our results point to cumulative and synergistic effects of heat and drought that may reprioritize carbon allocation of specific non-structural carbohydrates toward defense.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

Aerosols are a critical.factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosols have a major impact on the dynamics, microphysics, and electrification properties of continental mixed-phase convective clouds. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Such pollution . effects on precipitation potentially have enormous climatic consequences both in terms of feedbacks involving the land surface via rainfall as well as the surface energy budget and changes in latent heat input to the atmosphere. Basically, aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, the warm-rain process, the cold-rain process, cloud-top heights, the depth of the mixed-phase region, and the occurrence of lightning. Recently, many cloud resolution models (CRMs) have been used to examine the role of aerosols on mixed-phase convective clouds. These modeling studies have many differences in terms of model configuration (two- or three-dimensional), domain size, grid spacing (150-3000 m), microphysics (two-moment bulk, simple or sophisticated spectral-bin), turbulence (1st or 1.5 order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)), radiation, lateral boundary conditions (i.e., closed, radiative open or cyclic), cases (isolated convection, tropical or midlatitude squall lines) and model integration time (e.g., 2.5 to 48 hours). Among these modeling studies, the most striking difference is that cumulative precipitation can either increase or decrease in response to higher concentrations of CCN. In this presentation, we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, and results from (CRM) simulations. Note that this presentation is mainly based on a recent paper published in Geophy. Rev. (Tao et al. 2012).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Radiation on the Electronic Structure of MoS 2

Electrons in a semiconductor occupy states within certain energy ranges, called energy bands. The position of the Fermi level with respect to these energy bands determines the charge carrier type of the semiconductor. Molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) is a two-dimensional, n-type semiconductor with potential applications in flexible electronics, transparent electronics, and optoelectronics. Electronic devices containing MoS 2 could be used in environments where radiation affects device performance. Thus, it is important to determine the impact of radiation on MoS 2 . A one-molecule-thick layer of MoS 2 (monolayer) and a two-molecule-thick layer of MoS 2 (bilayer) were placed onto different areas of a gold (Au) substrate containing 1.2-µm-deep holes. The MoS 2 was suspended over these holes but supported by the Au elsewhere on the substrate. This sample configuration was used to determine the effect of He + radiation on the electronic properties of the suspended MoS 2 and the Au-supported MoS 2 . The MoS 2 was irradiated by He+ ions in two stages. The energy bands of the MoS 2 were measured with respect to the Fermi level via photoelectron emission microscopy before irradiation and after each irradiation stage. From each measurement, the charge carrier type of the MoS 2 after the corresponding irradiation stage was determined. The Fermi levels of the suspended monolayer and bilayer decreased by ≈0.15 eV with respect to the bands during the first irradiation stage During the second irradiation stage, however, the Fermi levels didn’t change significantly. This lack of change supports the existence of a radiation threshold, above which the electronic properties of suspended MoS 2 remain the same. The Fermi levels of the supported monolayer and bilayer increased over the cumulative irradiation and didn’t show evidence of a threshold. Thus, suspended MoS 2 becomes less n-type as it is irradiated. Supported MoS 2 , however, becomes more n-type as it is irradiated. These results could inform the development of radiation tolerance standards for MoS 2 , and thus, radiation-tolerant MoS 2 -based electronics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

AquaPV: Regulatory and Environmental Considerations for Floating Photovoltaic Projects Located on Federally Controlled Reservoirs in the United States

To meet the nation's decarbonization goals, the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Futures study forecasts that installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity must increase nearly tenfold, from 80 gigawatts (GW) in 2020 to approximately 760 GW cumulative installed capacity by 2035. Ground-mounted PV is expected to dominate future solar deployment and will require more than 3.5 million acres of land to meet annual demand projections (of nearly 45 GW) by 2030. However, various competing demands for land (e.g., agricultural production, conservation) and high land acquisition costs in specific locations could be challenges to meeting future PV demand solely with ground-mounted PV deployment. Floating photovoltaics (FPV) may be an alternative in locations where ground-mounted PV is not feasible and aid in reaching the nation's PV deployment and decarbonization goals. FPV is a newer siting approach in which a PV array is affixed to a floating apparatus and sited on a water body like a reservoir behind a dam. FPV systems may be stand-alone or co-located at new or existing hydroelectric facilities or pumped storage hydropower (PSH) facility reservoirs. Co-located FPV systems may or may not be operationally paired and work in tandem with the hydroelectric or PSH facility. This report provides novel analysis to understand the opportunities and challenges associated with developing stand-alone and co-located FPV projects on reservoirs in the United States. Specifically, the report explores potential environmental and energy benefits and environmental impacts associated with the siting, construction, and operation of FPV projects. The report also identifies and analyzes U.S. federal- and state-issued permits and authorizations required by federal laws to understand the licensing pathways and regulatory requirements for FPV projects sited on reservoirs licensed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and on powered and non-powered reservoirs owned by the Bureau of Reclamation or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

AquaPV: Regulatory and Environmental Considerations for Floating Photovoltaic Projects Located on Federally Controlled Reservoirs in the United States

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

AquaPV: Regulatory and Environmental Considerations for Floating Photovoltaic Projects Located on Federally Controlled Reservoirs in the United States

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗

NASA NTRS2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗

DOE OSTI2025

Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub (Final Report)

The Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub was a 2-year project (October 2023 – September 2025) conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) focused on advancing the feasibility of a commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) geologic storage hub in McKenzie County, North Dakota. The project’s objective was to investigate the potential that stacked storage complexes (multiple deep saline formations) can safely and economically store at least 50 million tonnes of CO 2 within 30 years. The captured CO 2 would be sourced from industrial emitters including project partner ONEOK, Inc.’s gas-processing plants and a planned gas-to-liquids facility. Drilling of the Roughrider 1 stratigraphic test well (14,979-ft total depth) was completed in November 2024. The wellbore intersected four candidate storage formations: Inyan Kara, Broom Creek, Mission Canyon, and Black Island–Deadwood. Operational challenges, including a stuck drill string, were resolved without long-term impact. A comprehensive logging and coring program was conducted, followed by successful well abandonment and site reclamation. Over 660 ft of 4-in. whole core was retrieved. Core plug samples were processed and analyzed for petrophysical and geochemical properties. Results confirmed promising porosity and permeability in the Inyan Kara and Broom Creek Formations and removal of the Mission Canyon and Black Island–Deadwood horizons from further investigation. Data derived from the logging and coring program were used to improve initial geologic models built from legacy data. CO 2 injection simulations showed that the Inyan Kara alone can feasibly store the target mass of CO 2 . Because of subtle differences in geologic structure and porosity trends between the formations, a stacked storage scenario using the Broom Creek and Inyan Kara Formations resulted in a larger overall plume area than using the Inyan Kara alone. Preliminary CO 2 pipeline routes from the industrial sources were mapped utilizing existing rights of way and evaluated for capacity and cost using U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management/National Energy Technology Laboratory models and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency emissions data. Integrating capture, transport, and storage cost estimates with policy incentives (e.g., 45Q credits) provided a total cost-per-ton analysis. Results indicate that the small scale of the volumes to be transported over the cumulative large distances does not support the project’s financial viability. However, the groundwork laid during this project from geological, regulatory, and social perspectives positions the Roughrider hub site as a promising candidate for commercial carbon storage in North Dakota, especially if the economy of scale is introduced for CO 2 transportation to the hub site.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Towards Probablistic Assessment of Hypobaric Decompression Sickness Treatment

INTRODUCTION: Pressure, oxygen (O2), and time are the pillars to effective treatment of decompression sickness (DCS). The NASA DCS Treatment Model links a decrease in computed bubble volume to the resolution of a symptom. The decrease in volume is realized in two stages: a) during the Boyle's Law compression and b) during subsequent dissolution of the gas phase by the O2 window. METHODS: The cumulative distribution of 154 symptoms that resolved during repressurization was described with a log-logistic density function of pressure difference (deltaP as psid) associated with symptom resolution and two other explanatory variables. The 154 symptoms originated from 119 cases of DCS during 969 exposures in 47 different altitude tests. RESULTS: The probability of symptom resolution [P(symptom resolution)] = 1 / (1+exp(- (ln(deltaP) - 1.682 + 1.089×AMB - 0.00395×SYMPTOM TIME) / 0.633)), where AMB is 1 when the subject ambulated as part of the altitude exposure or else 0 and SYMPTOM TIME is the elapsed time in min from start of the altitude exposure to recognition of a DCS symptom. The P(symptom resolution) was estimated from computed deltaP from the Tissue Bubble Dynamics Model based on the "effective" Boyle's Law change: P2 - P1 (deltaP, psid) = P1×V1/V2 - P1, where V1 is the computed volume of a spherical bubble in a unit volume of tissue at low pressure P1 and V2 is computed volume after a change to a higher pressure P2. V2 continues to decrease through time at P2, at a faster rate if 100% ground level O2 was breathed. The computed deltaP is the effective treatment pressure at any point in time as if the entire deltaP was just from Boyle's Law compression. DISCUSSION: Given the low probability of DCS during extravehicular activity and the prompt treatment of a symptom with options through the model it is likely that the symptom and gas phase will resolve with minimum resources and minimal impact on astronaut health, safety, and productivity.

Conkin, J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Lunar Magma Ocean Crystallization: Constraints from Fractional Crystallization Experiments

The currently accepted paradigm of lunar formation is that of accretion from the ejecta of a giant impact, followed by crystallization of a global scale magma ocean. This model accounts for the formation of the anorthosite highlands crust, which is globally distributed and old, and the formation of the younger mare basalts which are derived from a source region that has experienced plagioclase extraction. Several attempts at modelling the crystallization of such a lunar magma ocean (LMO) have been made, but our ever-increasing knowledge of the lunar samples and surface have raised as many questions as these models have answered. Geodynamic models of lunar accretion suggest that shortly following accretion the bulk of the lunar mass was hot, likely at least above the solidus]. Models of LMO crystallization that assume a deep magma ocean are therefore geodynamically favorable, but they have been difficult to reconcile with a thick plagioclase-rich crust. A refractory element enriched bulk composition, a shallow magma ocean, or a combination of the two have been suggested as a way to produce enough plagioclase to account for the assumed thickness of the crust. Recently however, geophysical data from the GRAIL mission have indicated that the lunar anorthositic crust is not as thick as was initially estimated, which allows for both a deeper magma ocean and a bulk composition more similar to the terrestrial upper mantle. We report on experimental simulations of the fractional crystallization of a deep (approximately 100km) LMO with a terrestrial upper mantle-like (LPUM) bulk composition. Our experimental results will help to define the composition of the lunar crust and mantle cumulates, and allow us to consider important questions such as source regions of the mare basalts and Mg-suite, the role of mantle overturn after magma ocean crystallization and the nature of KREEP

Rapp, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Effect of Distributed Patch of Smooth Roughness Elements on Transition in a High-Speed Boundary Layer

Surface roughness is known to have a substantial impact on the aerothermodynamic loading of hypersonic vehicles, particularly via its influence on the laminar-turbulent transition process within the boundary layer. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effects of a distributed region of densely packed, smooth-shaped roughness elements on the laminar boundary layer over a 7-degree half-angle, circular cone for flow conditions corresponding to a selected trajectory point from the ascent phase of the HIFiRE-1 flight experiment. For peak-to-valley roughness heights of 50 percent or less in comparison with the thickness of the unperturbed boundary layer, the computations converge to a stationary flow, suggesting that the flow is globally stable. Analysis of convective instabilities in the wake of the roughness patch indicates two dominant families of unstable disturbances, namely, a high frequency mode that corresponds to Mack mode waves modified by the wake and a lower frequency mode that corresponds to shear layer instabilities associated with the streaks in the roughness wake. Even though the peak growth rate of the later mode is more than 35 percent greater than the peak growth rates of the Mack modes, the latter modes achieve higher amplification ratios, and hence, are likely to dominate the onset of transition, which is estimated to occur slightly later than that in the unperturbed, i.e., smooth surface boundary layer. Additional computations are performed to investigate the effects of various roughness patch configurations on a Mach 3.5 flat plate boundary layer, to help guide an upcoming experiment in the Mach 3.5 Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. In this case, the cumulative reinforcement of basic state distortion over the length of the roughness patch is predicted to yield a significantly earlier transition than that over a smooth plate or a plate with a shorter length roughness patch.

Meelan Choudhari↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mutually beneficial outcomes for hydropower expansion and environmental protection at a basin scale

Reshaping the scale of planning for hydropower development, from reaches to basin-scales, has been recommended as a more effective way to ameliorate the environmental impacts of hydropower. One approach is identifying mutually exclusive areas where development is precluded for conservation purposes and areas of low conservation value that present fewer barriers to development. This strategy, however, is less adoptable in developed countries where hydropower is already widespread and large-scale construction of new dams is unlikely. To broaden the adoption of basin-scale planning, alternative approaches and planning tools are needed for identifying mutually beneficial opportunities for simultaneous increases in hydropower capacity while improving environmental conditions. In this study, we present the Basin Scale Opportunity Assessment as a methodology to improve environmental conditions through either direct (on-site) or indirect (off-site) mitigation. We assess whether direct or indirect mitigation activities lead to optimal results in terms of added hydropower, environmental improvement, and monetary cost at a basin scale. We present two case studies for the Connecticut River and Roanoke River Basins, USA. Significant opportunities for expanding hydropower generating capacity are numerous in both basins. Results suggest that total hydropower capacity could be increased 4 to 7 % in the Roanoke and Connecticut Basins, respectively, without new dam construction and with net improvements in environmental conditions. We found that environmentally and economically optimal win-win strategies for increasing hydropower capacity and improving environmental conditions included improving environmental conditions in rivers downstream of existing dams. Off-site mitigation opportunities, such as dam removal and wetland mitigation, were identified as optimum solutions for achieving net environmental improvements only when they were associated with new hydropower construction. Our results demonstrate that opportunities to increase hydropower capacity and improve environmental conditions are expanded by viewing cumulative benefits at basin scales; however, increasing regulatory flexibility may be required to realize these opportunities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated

The size and attribution of the regional net carbon flux from land-use change (LUC) activities (E LUC ) are often highly debated, especially in regions such as China, which has experienced decades-long extensive reforestation activities. Here, in this work, using a LUC dataset incorporating remote-sensing and national forest inventory data with two modelling approaches, we show that E LUC in China shifted from a carbon source to a sink in the 1990s, contributing to a net cumulative CO 2 removal of 2.0 Pg C during 1981–2020. From 2001 to 2020, the average E LUC was -0.14 Pg C yr -1 , accounting for over one-third of the national land carbon sinks. Forest-related LUC activities contributed greatly to national carbon fluxes, while non-forest-related activities played a dominant role in certain areas. Our findings suggest that the carbon sinks from LUC activities in China may be largely underestimated in global assessments, underscoring the need to develop region-specific modelling for evaluation and potential regulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2008

Adaptation of the Skeletal System during Long-duration Spaceflight

This review will highlight evidence from crew members flown on space missions greater than 90 days to suggest that the adaptations of the skeletal system to mechanical unloading may predispose crew members to an accelerated onset of osteoporosis after return to Earth. By definition, osteoporosis is a skeletal disorder - characterized by low bone mineral density and structural deterioration - that reduces the ability of bones to resist fracture under the loading of normal daily activities. Involutional or agerelated osteoporosis is readily recognized as a syndrome afflicting the elderly population because of the insipid and asymptomatic nature of bone loss that does not typically manifest as fractures until after age approximately 60. It is not the thesis of this review to suggest that spaceflight-induced bone loss is similar to bone loss induced by metabolic bone disease; rather this review draws parallels between the rapid and earlier loss in females that occurs with menopause and the rapid bone loss in middle-aged crew members that occurs with spaceflight unloading and how the cumulative effects of spaceflight and ageing could be detrimental, particularly if skeletal effects are totally or partially irreversible. In brief, this report will provide detailed evidence that long-duration crew members, exposed to the weightlessness of space for the typical long-duration (4-6 months) mission on Mir or the International Space Station -- 1. Display bone resorption that is aggressive, that targets normally weight-bearing skeletal sites, that is uncoupled to bone formation and that results in areal BMD deficits that can range between 6-20% of preflight BMD; 2. Display compartment-specific declines in volumetric BMD in the proximal femur (a skeletal site of clinical interest) that significantly reduces its compressive and bending strength and which may account for the loss in hip bone strength (i.e., force to failure); 3. Recover BMD over a post-flight time period that exceeds spaceflight exposure but for which the restoration of whole bone strength remains an open issue and may involve structural alteration; and 4. Display risk factors for bone loss -- such as the negative calcium balance and down-regulated calcium-regulating hormones in response to bone atrophy -- that can be compounded by the constraints of conducting mission operations (inability to provide essential nutrients and vitamins). The full characterization of the skeletal response to mechanical unloading in space is not complete. In particular, countermeasures used to date have been inadequate and it is not yet known whether more appropriate countermeasures can prevent the changes in bone that have been found in previous flights, knowledge gaps related to the effects of prolonged (greater than or equal to 6 months) space exposure and to partial gravity environments are substantial, and longitudinal measurements on crew members after spaceflight are required to assess the full impact on skeletal recovery.

Sibonga, Jean D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Methodological challenges and new perspectives of shifting vegetation phenology in eddy covariance data

While numerous studies report shifts in vegetation phenology, in this regard eddy covariance (EC) data, despite its continuous high-frequency observations, still requires further exploration. Furthermore, there is no general consensus on optimal methodologies for data smoothing and extracting phenological transition dates (PTDs). Here, we revisit existing methodologies and present new prospects to investigate phenological changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) from EC measurements. First, we present a smoothing technique of GPP time series through the derivative of its smoothed annual cumulative sum. Second, we calculate PTDs and their trends from a commonly used threshold method that identifies days with a fixed percentage of the annual maximum GPP. A systematic analysis is performed for various thresholds ranging from 0.1 to 0.7. Lastly, we examine the relation of PTDs trends to trends in GPP across the years on a weekly basis. Results from 47 EC sites with long time series (> 10 years) show that advancing trends in start of season (SOS) are strongest at lower thresholds but for the end of season (EOS) at higher thresholds. Moreover, the trends are variable at different thresholds for individual vegetation types and individual sites, outlining reasonable concerns on using a single threshold value. Relationship of trends in PTDs and weekly GPP reveal association of advanced SOS and delayed EOS to increase in immediate primary productivity, but not to the trends in overall seasonal productivity. Drawing on these analyses, we emphasise on abstaining from subjective choices and investigating relationship of PTDs trend to finer temporal trends of GPP. Our study examines existing methodological challenges and presents approaches that optimize the use of EC data in identifying vegetation phenological changes and their relation to carbon uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗